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1 Yasuhiro Daisho Professor Emeritus Advisor to the Laboratory of Research Oraganization for Next Generation Vehicles Waseda University Future Fuels and Energy towards Electrifying Vehicles in Japan May 20 th , 2019 Waseda University-AVL Joint Symposium

Future Fuels and Energy towards Electrifying Vehicles in Japan · (Source:Global EV Outlook 2018, IEA) Number of EVs in Circulation It is predicted that the sales of EVs will

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Page 1: Future Fuels and Energy towards Electrifying Vehicles in Japan · (Source:Global EV Outlook 2018, IEA) Number of EVs in Circulation It is predicted that the sales of EVs will

1

Yasuhiro Daisho

Professor Emeritus Advisor to the Laboratory of Research Oraganization

for Next Generation Vehicles

Waseda University

Future Fuels and Energy

towards Electrifying Vehicles in Japan

May 20th, 2019Waseda University-AVLJoint Symposium

Page 2: Future Fuels and Energy towards Electrifying Vehicles in Japan · (Source:Global EV Outlook 2018, IEA) Number of EVs in Circulation It is predicted that the sales of EVs will

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Serious Issues associated with mobility

< Traffic Accidents >

< Energy > Oil dependence

Renewables

< Environment >

Air pollution Global warming

< Traffic Congestion > < Disasters >

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Three important measures to resolve or mitigate vehicle-related environmental

and energy issues

Reducing exhaust gas emissions and improving fuel economy in conventional gasoline and diesel vehicles

1

Developing and disseminating alternative power systems, fuels and energy, including hybrids, EVs, plug-in hybrids, FCVs, etc.

2

Changing the way we use the automobile, by means of ITS, ICT, automated drive, modal shift using mass transit, eco-drive, social and community planning for mobility, etc.

3

Page 4: Future Fuels and Energy towards Electrifying Vehicles in Japan · (Source:Global EV Outlook 2018, IEA) Number of EVs in Circulation It is predicted that the sales of EVs will

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(1) The future combination of the IC engine and oil

❑Oil is the best fuel for IC engines used in motor vehicles. The value of oil will depend on its availability and/or the energy and environmental policiesmade by the individual countries in the future. Oil consumers should be ready for decreased oil production and supply and its increased prices.❑The ultimately high engine efficiency should be achieved. ❑The use of the following alternative fuels will substantially be limited due to both their supply amounts and costs.

・Bio-fuels, Natural gas, CTL, GTL, BTL, Hydrogen, Ammonia, e-fuel, etc.

(2) Alternative power systems and non-oil

❑Sales of FCVs will be limited due to difficulties with reducing vehicle and hydrogen costs, producing hydrogen and locating hydrogen stations even in 2050.❑EVs will be a more realistic alternative because of diversified electricity sources and inexpensive recharging stations. EVs will mainly be used for short and medium range drives due to limited battery energy densities and high battery costs.

“How should automotive power systems be towards 2050?” (Future Power Systems Committee, JSAE, March, 2016) 1/2

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(3) Power systems for id and long term

❑Plug-in HVs are one of the most realistic options in place of IC engine vehicles and HVs. This is because the transitions from oil to electricity and/or hydrogen should be conducted smoothly taking into account the fact that ordinary vehicle’s lifetime is ten to fifteen years.❑More renewable electricity and hydrogen must be utilized for these transitions along with improvingthe battery’s performance and reducing the costs.Thus, the transitions will require one to two decades.

(4) Issues on future mobility

❑To mitigate the shortage of energy and global warming, not only disseminating next generation vehicles but also realizing a mobility society with lower energy consumption.❑Developed countries should support motorizing countries with providing appropriate policies and technologies based on “Mobility Innovations.”

5

“How should automotive power systems be towards 2050?” (Future Power Systems Committee, JSAE, March, 2016) 2/2

Page 6: Future Fuels and Energy towards Electrifying Vehicles in Japan · (Source:Global EV Outlook 2018, IEA) Number of EVs in Circulation It is predicted that the sales of EVs will

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Greenhouse Gases Reduction by each Country according to the Paris Agreement, Nov., 2015

☆2050年に先進国は温暖化効果ガスを現状から80%削減し,全体として

8

2005

1990

2005

2005

1990

2013

China

E U

India

Japan

Russia

USA

Country Reduction

Reference

by 2030

by 2030

by 2030

by 2030

by 2030

by 2025

per GDP

per GDP

25.4% compared to 2005 level

☆Each developed country is supposed to reduce its GHGs by 80% by 2050 compared to the present levels to achieve a 50% reduction in global GHGs.

☆President Trump announced that the United States would withdraw from the agreement on June 1st, 2017.

Page 7: Future Fuels and Energy towards Electrifying Vehicles in Japan · (Source:Global EV Outlook 2018, IEA) Number of EVs in Circulation It is predicted that the sales of EVs will

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★ CO2 emitted from motor vehicles: 15.4% of total emissons

TransportationMillion

tons%

Motor vehicles 183.88 86.2

Passenger cars 98.50 46.2

Private trucks 35.32 16.6

Professional trucks 42.40 19.2

Buses 4.17 2.0

Taxes 2.69 1.3

Motorcycles 0.80 0.4

Aviation 10.40 4.9

Costal shipping 10.25 4.8

Railways 8.67 4.8

Total 213.00 100.0

Emission in Each Sector

Total CO2

emissions1.190 billion tons

Transportation

17.9%

Busi-

Ness

17.4%

House-

hold15.6%

Industry

34.7%

Others

14.4%

CO2 Emisions in the Transportation Sector in Japan, FY2017 (MLIT, 2018)

Page 8: Future Fuels and Energy towards Electrifying Vehicles in Japan · (Source:Global EV Outlook 2018, IEA) Number of EVs in Circulation It is predicted that the sales of EVs will

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Sector 2013 (2005)2030 /

Reduction % 2013 (2005)

Industry 429 (457) 401 / ▲6.5 (▲12.3)

Business, etc. 279 (239) 168 / ▲39.8 (▲29.7)

Household 201 (180) 122 / ▲39.3 (▲32.2)

Transportation 225 (240) 163 / ▲27.6 (▲32.1)

Energy Conversion 101 (104) 73 / ▲27.7 (▲29.8)

Total 1,235 (1,219) 927 / ▲24.9 (▲24.0)

いてはり、各部門における13

[ Unit: Million t-CO2 ]

Energy Related CO2 Emission Reductions in 2030 for the Paris Agreement, Japan

Page 9: Future Fuels and Energy towards Electrifying Vehicles in Japan · (Source:Global EV Outlook 2018, IEA) Number of EVs in Circulation It is predicted that the sales of EVs will

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Country Year km/L L/100 km CO2

g/km

Japan 2020 22.1 4.52 105

E U2021

(2030)24.4

(38.6)4.10

(2.59)

95(60)

USA 2025 22.5 4.44 103

China 2020 (2025)

19.8(25.0)

5.05 (4.00)

117 (93)

India 2021 20.5 4.88 113

Comparison of LDV Fuel Economy Standards based on NEDC, ICCT 2015

( ): Proposed * President Trump is trying to abolish the 2025 standards. NEDC: New European Driving CycleICCT: The International Council on Clean Transportation

Page 10: Future Fuels and Energy towards Electrifying Vehicles in Japan · (Source:Global EV Outlook 2018, IEA) Number of EVs in Circulation It is predicted that the sales of EVs will

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Fuel Economy Standards (average) in Japan

2010 2015 2020 2030 2015 2025 2015 2025

<Trucks> <Buses><Passenger Cars>(Corporate Average Fuel Economy)

20 -

15 -

10 -

5 -

0 -

7.5 -

5.0 -

2.5 -

0 -

13.6

16.8

20.3

6.72

5.71

6.5224%49%

13.4%

14.3%

km/L

km/L

≪Heavy-duty Vehicles≫

7.63

★Standards in 2015 required 12% fuel economy improvement compared to the level in 2002.30%>

Page 11: Future Fuels and Energy towards Electrifying Vehicles in Japan · (Source:Global EV Outlook 2018, IEA) Number of EVs in Circulation It is predicted that the sales of EVs will

11Solutions to Achieve a 50% Brake Thermal Efficiency in Passenger Car Engines

✓Reducing mechanical losses by 50%

✓Utilizing exhaust gas energy・Increasing turbocharging efficiency・Using a thermoelectric device

✓Enhancing indicated work by improving combustion in both engines

≪Energy Balance≫

50%(Target)

38.5~40.8%

20%

35%

4%

28~30%

16~18%

2%

2%

2%

✓Reducing heat losses by improving combustion

Exhaust losses

Cooling losses

Brake work

Mechanical losses

★ Brake Thermal Efficiency Baseline: Gasoline engines ⇒ 38.5%Diesel engines ⇒ 40.8%

Innovative Combustion Technologies in the Strategic Innovation Program (SIP) in FY2014-2018, with ¥10 billion budget

☆The high efficiency engine is essential also for increasing hybrids’ fuel economy.

Page 12: Future Fuels and Energy towards Electrifying Vehicles in Japan · (Source:Global EV Outlook 2018, IEA) Number of EVs in Circulation It is predicted that the sales of EVs will

12SIP’s “Innovative Combustion Technologies”

Page 13: Future Fuels and Energy towards Electrifying Vehicles in Japan · (Source:Global EV Outlook 2018, IEA) Number of EVs in Circulation It is predicted that the sales of EVs will

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<Gasoline Engine> <Diesel Engine>51.5%

50.1%

Combustion improvements

Loss Reductions

Target Target52

50

48

46

44

42

40

38

BTH

52

50

48

46

44

42

40

38B

TE%

2014 15 16 17 2018 2014 15 16 17 2018

Achievements in Brake Thermal Efficiencies in Gasoline and Diesel Engines(January, 2019)

❑Turbocharging efficiency: 69%

❑Thermoelectric device: 262W×4

❑Mechanical loss reductions: 55.5%

Page 14: Future Fuels and Energy towards Electrifying Vehicles in Japan · (Source:Global EV Outlook 2018, IEA) Number of EVs in Circulation It is predicted that the sales of EVs will

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The International Council on Clean Transportation

The Volkswagen emissions scandal called

“Dieselgate” announced on Sept. 18th , 2015,

by U.S.EPA

Page 15: Future Fuels and Energy towards Electrifying Vehicles in Japan · (Source:Global EV Outlook 2018, IEA) Number of EVs in Circulation It is predicted that the sales of EVs will

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Recent EVs Fuel Cell Vehicles

Hybrid Vehicles

Variations of Electrified Vehicles

EVs in 1970s to2000s

Advanced Technologies

Batteries, Electronic Control, Lightweight Materials, Devices, and

Engines

Page 16: Future Fuels and Energy towards Electrifying Vehicles in Japan · (Source:Global EV Outlook 2018, IEA) Number of EVs in Circulation It is predicted that the sales of EVs will

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M: Motor G: GeneratorC/I: Controller / InverterB: Battery unit T: Transmission C:ClutchPs: Power splitterPi: Plug-in

: Drive / Power generation<Parallel (Mild)>

【20-50%】

<Series/Parallel (Full)>

【50-100%】<Series (Full)>

【50-100%】

B

E

B C/I

<Hybrid type>

【Improved fuel economy, %】

~ ~

E G

Pi

Ps

G

M/GC/I

Pi

M/G

: Regeneration

E

B

C

M/G T

C/I

Pi

C

Three Hybrid Systems

Page 17: Future Fuels and Energy towards Electrifying Vehicles in Japan · (Source:Global EV Outlook 2018, IEA) Number of EVs in Circulation It is predicted that the sales of EVs will

17A Variety of Latest HEVs in Japan

Fit Hybrid, Dual Clutch Transmission

Honda

Solio, Mild hybrid (ISG)Suzuki

Plug-in Prius, Toyota Plug-in Outlander, Mitsubishi

Prius, Toyota

Note, e-Power, Series Hybrid, Nissan

Diesel Parallel Hybrid Truck, Isuzu Diesel Parallel Hybrid Bus, Hino

Page 19: Future Fuels and Energy towards Electrifying Vehicles in Japan · (Source:Global EV Outlook 2018, IEA) Number of EVs in Circulation It is predicted that the sales of EVs will

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Future Passenger Car Fuel Economy Targetsby Y. Daisho

2020 2030 2040 2050

50

40

30

20

10

0

100

80

60

40

20

0

(20.3km/L) 3%4%5%

Annual improvement

116 77.4 58.0 46.4 CO2 : g/km

Ave

rag

e F

ue

l E

co

no

my,

km

/L

Rela

tive F

uel C

onsum

ption, %

Annual improvement: 5%

Page 20: Future Fuels and Energy towards Electrifying Vehicles in Japan · (Source:Global EV Outlook 2018, IEA) Number of EVs in Circulation It is predicted that the sales of EVs will

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❏ZEV regulations is tightened in California.

・ZEV sales: 4.5% in 2018, stepwisely 22% in 2025・GM, Ford, FCA, Toyota, Honda, Nissan, VW, BMW, Daimler, Hyundai/Kia and Mazda have to comply.

・ZEVs include BEVs, FCVs, TZEVs (Transitional ZEV,PHV) excluding hybrids.

・Nine statess follow California.・President Trump is insisting that the program should be abolished.

❏NEV(New Energy Vehicle)policy starts in China.

・ZEVs sales: 10% in 2019, 12% in 2020・Hybrids are excluded.・PHEVs having longer than 50 km EV range are included. 2018-19年 2.・EV and battery technologies are expected to advance.・Will EV sales decrease after EV’s purchase incentives are expired in 2020?

・China will become the mightiest EV nation, producing 7 million EVs out of 35 million vehicle production along with “Made in China 2025.”

・Disseminating EVs will not have any significant effect on reducing CO2 or improving air pollution in all megacities in China.

Tesla

BYD

ZEV and NEV policies will lead the global EV market.

Page 21: Future Fuels and Energy towards Electrifying Vehicles in Japan · (Source:Global EV Outlook 2018, IEA) Number of EVs in Circulation It is predicted that the sales of EVs will

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2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

China

Europe

United States

Others

3.5

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0

Mill

ion

s

(Source:Global EV Outlook 2018, IEA)

Number of EVs in Circulation

❑It is predicted that the sales of EVs will be 4.0 million in 2020, and 21. 5 million in 2030 based on each country’s BAU policy for disseminating EVs. Thus, owned EVs will be 13 million in 2020, and 125 million in 2030, accounting for 10% of global LDVs on the road.

The number of EVs increased by 54% from 2016 to 2017, reaching 3.0 million in 2017.The global sales of EVs were 1.0 million, including 580,000 in China in 2017.

Page 22: Future Fuels and Energy towards Electrifying Vehicles in Japan · (Source:Global EV Outlook 2018, IEA) Number of EVs in Circulation It is predicted that the sales of EVs will

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Domestic sales stock: 100,00Global sales stock: 400,000 in 2018

Nissan’s New “LEAF” (Sept., 2017)

L×W×H×WB 4,480×1,790×1,540×2,700 mm

VW/GVW 1,490-1,520 kg/1,765-1,795 kg

Battery type/Capacity Li-ion/40 kWh (30 kWh)

Motor type/name PM synchronous/EM57

Max. power (80 kW) 110kW/3,283~9,795rpm

Max. torque (280Nm) 320 N・m/0~3,283 rpm

Drive range(JC08 mode) 400 km (280 km)

Slow recharging time 16 hours(3 kW)/8 hours(6 kW)

Rapid recharging time 40 min. for 80% SOC

・Drive range: 400 km by “e-Powertrain” ・Energy consumption: 10km/kWh・”e-Pedal” is adopted to reduce driver’s pedaling load.・”Pro-pilot” is installed for driver’s assistance.・A connected technology ”Apple CarPlay” is adopted.1・CO2 emission: 48.6 g/km (TEPCP: 486g/kWh in 2016)・Real drive energy consumption: 7km/kWh・”e+ version” was released having 62 kWh battery capacity in January, 2019

The capacity is increased by 25%, drive range by 40%.

・Battery cell anode: NiMnCo・Cell energy density: 240 Wh/kg・Cell mass: 167kg・Package mass: 300kg

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Recharging Spots for EVs and PHV in Japan (October, 2018)

Nissan’s Dealers: 1,890 Convenience stores: 1,040 Shopping malls: 900

Municipal areas: 460 Road-side stations: 860 Express highway PAs: 410

◙ Major Rapid Recharging Spots as below: 7,600 (6-50 kW)

◙ Slow Recharging Spots: 22,100 (1-3 kW)

❑Total Recharging Spots: 29,700

❑Gas Stations: 30,747 (in March, 2017)

Page 24: Future Fuels and Energy towards Electrifying Vehicles in Japan · (Source:Global EV Outlook 2018, IEA) Number of EVs in Circulation It is predicted that the sales of EVs will

24Devices for Storing Electricity

100005

10005

1005

105

1

Pow

er

den

sity

W/k

g

0.1 5 1 5 10 5 100 5 1000

Energy Density Wh/kg

Electric Double Layer

Capacitor

Li-ion

Battery

Lead

Acid

Battery

Capacitor

Ni-MH

Battery Fuel Cell

2010~2030

High reliability and

durability and low cost

are essential.

Li, Co, Mn, Ni,

Graphite, etc.

Metal Air Battery?All-solid-

state Battery?

After 2030⇒

(Professor T. Osaka, Waseda University)

Page 25: Future Fuels and Energy towards Electrifying Vehicles in Japan · (Source:Global EV Outlook 2018, IEA) Number of EVs in Circulation It is predicted that the sales of EVs will

25All Solid-State Lithium-ion Battery Development Project

Phase 2 Started (NEDO, June 15, 2018)

☚Assumed shift of EV battery technologies

☚Structure of an all solid-state Li-ion battery

Industry-academia-government collaboration project FY2018-FY2022,Budget: ¥10 billion

Page 26: Future Fuels and Energy towards Electrifying Vehicles in Japan · (Source:Global EV Outlook 2018, IEA) Number of EVs in Circulation It is predicted that the sales of EVs will

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Type TermDrive

range, kmMass, kg

Capacity, kWh

Cost, ¥

PHV2020~2030

60 50 10 200,000

EV2040~2050

700 80 56 260,000

Source: Roadmaps on Developing Secondary Batteries for Motor Vehicles 2013(NEDO, August, 2013, Reviewed in June, 2018)

Mid and Long Term Targetsfor Developing Battery Packages for PHVs and EVs

Page 27: Future Fuels and Energy towards Electrifying Vehicles in Japan · (Source:Global EV Outlook 2018, IEA) Number of EVs in Circulation It is predicted that the sales of EVs will

27Issues on Rapid Recharging Systems for EVs

and PHEVs in Japan

❏The effect of stopping all nuclear power stations in March 2011 on increased CO2 emissions in Japan

・340g/kWh in 2010・610g/kWh(1.8 times) in 2014 (average)

❏Revised CHADEMO standards for rapid EV recharging, announced in March 2017・Increasing power capacity for Evs and reducing

recharging: 50 kW ⇒ 150kW (2017) ⇒ 350kW (2020)・Issues on how to manage electricity

supply and demand for transportation, business and household sectors✓Smart grid and demand response

systems are necessary.✓Power management systems are

also necessary to store and generate electricity

50kw ⇒150kw

30 min

10 min

Reduced recharging time

SHIZUKI ELECTRIC CO.

Page 28: Future Fuels and Energy towards Electrifying Vehicles in Japan · (Source:Global EV Outlook 2018, IEA) Number of EVs in Circulation It is predicted that the sales of EVs will

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Considering EV’s Electricity Consumption

❑Annual electricy consumption, Wt: 797,100GWh (FY2015)

❑EV’s real drive energy consumption: 7km/kWh (Leaf’s case)

❑Data ・Daily drive distance: 23.4km (MLIT)

・Annual drive distance: 8,540km

・Annual electricity consumption: 1,220kWh

・Annual electricity cost: ¥30,500円 (¥25/kWh)

❑EVs’ annual electricity consumption, We (We/Wt)

・1.0 million EVs: 1220GWh (0.153%)

・5.0 million : 6100GWh (0.765%)

・10 million : 12,200GWh (1.531%)

❑A typical 1.0 million W nuclear powerplant can provide 7,010 GWh at

80% operation to be used for 5.75 million EVs.

❑If 20,000 EVs are simultaneously charged at 50 kW recharging stations,

a nuclear poerplant is necessary.

❑Taxation on EVs will be based on annual drive distance and ownership.

Page 29: Future Fuels and Energy towards Electrifying Vehicles in Japan · (Source:Global EV Outlook 2018, IEA) Number of EVs in Circulation It is predicted that the sales of EVs will

29Comparison of Electricity Sources in Japan

SourcePlant CO2

emission g/kWh*

Cost ¥/kWh

(predicted for 2030)

Operation%

Life timeyear

Coal 943 12.9 70 40

Oil 738 28.9~41.7 10~30 40

LNG 599 13.4 70 40

Solar 38 12.5~16.4 12 20

Wind 2513.6~21.5 (inland)

30.3~34.7 (off shore)20 (←)30 (←)

20

Nuclear 20 10.3~ 70 40

Geothermal 13 16.8 10~80 40

Hydraulic 11 11.0 45~60 40~60

Biomass 10~29.7 (dedicated)

13.2 (mixed)80 30~40

Average 540 24 ‐ -

Based on sources from METI and CRIEPI*: including facility and operation costs

Page 30: Future Fuels and Energy towards Electrifying Vehicles in Japan · (Source:Global EV Outlook 2018, IEA) Number of EVs in Circulation It is predicted that the sales of EVs will

30Yokohama Smart City Project (YSCP)

(METI, FY2010-FY2014) reported in March, 2015

❑Toyota, Keihanna and Kita-Kyushu Cities also joined in their own ways.

❑V2X (X: Grid, Home, Building, ect.) projects have been conducted

after YSCP.

(Achievements/targets)HEMS (4,230/4,000 households), PV (37/27 MW), EVs (2,300/2,000)CO2 reduction ( 39,000/30,000 tons), (29/25%)

Page 31: Future Fuels and Energy towards Electrifying Vehicles in Japan · (Source:Global EV Outlook 2018, IEA) Number of EVs in Circulation It is predicted that the sales of EVs will

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31

Two delivery FC Trucks will be used for Seven-Eleven stores starting in 2019. Their drive range is about 200 km. (June 6, 2018)

FC Truck , in U.S. California bay areas April, 2017

The truck has two “Mirai`s FC systems, 12 kWh battery unit and 500 kW power motor unit with 1,800 N・m torque. The gross vehicle weight is 36 tons.

“Mirai” December, 2014 FC Forklift, January, 2017 FC Bus with two Mirai’s FC systems sold to the Tokyo Metropolitan Government, February, 2017

A Variety of Toyota’s FCVs, 2014-2018

Other automakers are expected to follow or collaborate with Toyota.

Page 32: Future Fuels and Energy towards Electrifying Vehicles in Japan · (Source:Global EV Outlook 2018, IEA) Number of EVs in Circulation It is predicted that the sales of EVs will

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32

Scenarios on “Basic Hydrogen Strategies”(Ministerial Meeting on Renewable Energy and Hydrogen

(December 26, 2017)

Page 33: Future Fuels and Energy towards Electrifying Vehicles in Japan · (Source:Global EV Outlook 2018, IEA) Number of EVs in Circulation It is predicted that the sales of EVs will

33A Roadmap for Disseminating Hydrogen Fuel

Cell Vehicles in Japan (METI, 2016-2017)

❑Number of registered FCVs:

・ 40,000 by 2020 ・ 200,000 by 2025 ・ 800,000 by 2030

(・ 3-6 million in 2040 ・ 8-16 million in 2050)

❑FCVs should include not only passenger cars

but also forklifts, trucks, buses, vessels, etc.

❑Number of hydrogen stations:

・ 160 by 2020 ・ 320 by 2025 (・ 720 in 2030)

❑Hydrogen should be CO2 free in terms of production, transportation, storage and usage by 2040.

❑Hydrogen carriers including organichydride, ammonia and liquefactionare the most promising measures to store and transport hydrogen. (SIP)

❑Technological and economical issues should be discussed and overcome to introduce renewable hydrogen.

Page 34: Future Fuels and Energy towards Electrifying Vehicles in Japan · (Source:Global EV Outlook 2018, IEA) Number of EVs in Circulation It is predicted that the sales of EVs will

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9.6

29.3

25.0

28.6

10.7

14.9

43.2

30.3

22-24

27

26

20-22

2010 2013 2016 2030

7.5

1.0

3?

Fossil fuels?

?

2050

Geothermal 1.0-1.1

Wind 1.7

Biomass

3.7-4.6

Solar

7.0

Hydraulic

8.8-9.2

14.5

9.3

42.2

32.3

1.7

(unit: %)

Nuclear

Coal

LNG

Oil

Renewables

Fossil Fuels

☆Reducing the consumption of fossil fuels in electric power plants is effective to decrease CO2 emission from all sectors.

Electricity Sources Proposed for the Paris Agreement by METI, Japan, 2015, 2018

Page 35: Future Fuels and Energy towards Electrifying Vehicles in Japan · (Source:Global EV Outlook 2018, IEA) Number of EVs in Circulation It is predicted that the sales of EVs will

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Comparison of Enery Consumed by EVs and FCVs

Item EV “L” FCV “M”

Real Drive energy consumption

Annual energy consumption

Annual energy expense (Present)

Energy cost (present)

Future energy cost target

Electricity fraction required for one million vehicles

7 km/kWh

1,220 kWh

¥30,500

¥25/kWh

¥12/kWh

0.153%

100 km/kg-H2

85.4 kg

¥85,400

¥1,000/kg-H2

¥20/Nm3

0.52%

❑Average drive distance: 23.4 km/day, 8,540 km/year (MLIT, 2016)❑Electricity required for producing 1 kg hydrogen: 140 MJ/kg=38.9 kWh/kg❑Electricity required for driving an FCV in a year: 3,320 kWh

(If electrolysis efficiency is 80%, 4,150 kWh is necessary.)

Page 36: Future Fuels and Energy towards Electrifying Vehicles in Japan · (Source:Global EV Outlook 2018, IEA) Number of EVs in Circulation It is predicted that the sales of EVs will

36Future Competition of EV vs FCV

❑Co-existing utilizing their own features or the survival of the fittest?❑Rapid recharging systems with smart grids VS hydrogen stations❑How much renewable energy will be produced for electricity or hydrogen in

place of oil?

Item EV FCV

Vehicle cost high battery unit cost extremely expensive

Production process simpler (reduced parts) Complicated

Running cost cheaper (<25円/kWh) expensive

Drive range sufficient for weekday use long (400-700 km)

Charging time 10-15 min, required 3 min. or so

Charging infrastracture20-50kW (¥2-4 million)

⇒150kW, 350 kW(?)

¥500 million⇒¥300 million

(excluding land acquisition

costs)

Energy Business low profit very low profit

Rare materials Nd, Li, Co, Ni ・・・ Pt, Nd・・・

Social acceptance favorable awareness required

Page 37: Future Fuels and Energy towards Electrifying Vehicles in Japan · (Source:Global EV Outlook 2018, IEA) Number of EVs in Circulation It is predicted that the sales of EVs will

37Options for Decarbonizing Electricity and Hydrogen

❑ Renewables

Solar

Wind

Geothermal

Hydraulic

Biomass

Electric Vehicle

Plug-in Hybrid

Fuel Cell Vehicle

❑ Nuclear Power

Electricity

Hydrogen

☆ Hydrogen is produced mainly from fossil fuels such as oil and natural gas.☆ Carbon-free hydrogen must be realized by 2040 taking into production,

transportation, storage and supply processes. (Japan)☆ Overall LCA and cost evaluation should be made on these fuels and energy.

(Water Pyrolysis)

・Recharging station・Electricity management

・Hydrogen handling, storage and supply

Hybrid & IC Engine Vehicles

(Water Electrolysis) (Fuel Cell)

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JSME Journal April, 2016

ElectricH2

Fossil fuel

Energy flow

Fossil Fuel Renewable

EnergyElectric Grids

Hydrogen Grids

H2-ElectricityConversion

Mass Storage

Developing Advanced Energy Technologies for a Hydrogen Society

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39“e-gas” Production by Audi

based on Carbon Capture & Utilization

(CCU) (1/2)

<Renewables>

Solar

Wind

Geothermal

Hydraulic

Biomass

MethanationProcess*

H2

CO2

CH4

CNGVAudi g-tron

MethaneSupply

Infrastructure

❑CO2 emission can be reduced by about 80% on Well-to-Wheel basis.

(Plants, etc.)

Public Natural Gas

Line

WaterElectrolysis

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Vehicle type 2017(data) 2020 2030

Conventional vehicles 63.97% 50~80% 30~50%

Next generation vehicles 36.02% 20~50% 50~70%

HEV 31.2% 20~30% 30~40%

EV / PHEV 0.41 / 0.82% 15~20% 20~30%

FCV 0.02% ~1% ~3%

Clean diesel 3.52% ~5% 5 ~10%

(A Strategic Research Committee for Next Generation Vehicles, METI, 2010, The following Committee, METI, 2018)

Market Share Targets for Passenger Cars

in 2020-2030 proposed by METI

❑4.386 million passenger cars were sold in Japan, in 2017. ❑Percent market share of passenger cars is lower than 5% in the other

major countries in 2017 as follows. ・USA: 4.0% ・Germany: 3.0%・France: 4.8% ・China: 3.0% ・India: 0.03%

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Comparison of Next Generation Vehicles at Middle Class

Type Battery capacity

kWhVehicle mass ratio Fuel economy

Gasoline vehicle(fuel: 400-500)

(1.0) (1.0)

Diesel 1.06 1.15~1.20

HV 1~2 1.05~1.15 1.20~1.90

PHV 10~20 1.15~1.20 1.8

BEV 20~80 1.20~1.30 3~4**

FCV1~2

(H2: 150-170) 1.30~1.40 1.8~2.5**

* : Relative to gasoline vehicle **: Converted based on energy consumption (Wh/km)

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Lighweightingthe Vehicle

Downsizing the Power System

High efficiency, Low Environmental impacts,

High Safety

<Body, Steering,

Suspension, Other Parts>

Design, Production,

Recycle

<Engine System>Combustion, Turbocharging,

Transmission, Electronic Controls

<Hybridization, Electrification>

Synergetic Effects of Downsizing the Power System and Lightweighting the Vehicle

❏Ultra high tensile steel ❏Light metals and alloys

❏Plastic materials

20-40% vehicle mass reduction by 2050

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43

Advanced engine technologies

Advanced batteries and electrification

Decarbonized electricity and hydrogen

Reduced vehicle weight

(EV, PHEV, FCV)

(EV, HEV, PHEV, FCV)

(ICEV, HEV, PHEV)

Rel

ativ

e im

po

rtan

ceIEA/ETP 2012

90%

Projected Next Generation Passenger Vehicles’ Share Worldwide and Relative Importance for R&D

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Reference △30-40% △45-55% △65-85% 【 Measures 】

Projected Long-term Reduction in Motor Vehicle CO2 Emission in Japan

<Smart Vehicle Use>

ITS, ICT, Modal shift,

Change in car lifestyle

<Fuel Economy Improvements>

Efficient power systems, Hybridization, Vehicle

weight reduction

<Use of Low Carbon Fuels and Energy>

Electricity, H2, Biofuels

(By Y. Daisho)

100%

20- 35

Δ35-45

Δ15-25

Δ10-20

45-60

Δ30-35

Δ5-10

60-75

Δ20-30

Δ5-10Δ1-2

Δ1-2

2010 2020 2030 2050

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Issues for Developing and Disseminating Next Generation Vehicles

❑Comprehensive efforts for sustainable mobility in terms of environmental

protection, energy security, economy, convenience, safety, comfort and resiliency to disasters.

❑Continued governmental support and collaboration between industry,academia and government for developing advanced mobility technologies

❑Strengthening global competitiveness for motor vehicle-related technologies

❑Developing and disseminating technologies related to low-carbon renewable fuels and energy such as electricity, bio-fuels, hydrogen etc.

❑Creating new environmentally friendly car lifestyles❑Developing technologies related to ITS,IT, ICT and AI for us to drive

conveniently, efficiently and safely.❑Technological and policy contributions to emerging economies

Market

Technology Policy

Industry

Academia Government

34