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Future of Mobility Continued Growth & Investment potential of the Global Carsharing Market Presented to Carsharing Association, Milan Martyn Briggs, Frost & Sullivan

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Page 1: Frost and Sullivan

Future of Mobility

Continued Growth & Investment potential of the Global Carsharing Market

Presented to Carsharing Association, Milan

Martyn Briggs, Frost & Sullivan

Page 2: Frost and Sullivan

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Integrated Ticketing & Payment

On-Demand Transportation

Vehicle Sharing

Door to Door Mobility Planning

Converging Mega Trends & Their Impact on Integrated MobilityMega trends are shaping demand for Integrated Mobility, but Technology & Big Data advancements are underpinning future services and business models

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Definition & Potential of Integrated MobilityThe Future of Mobility consists of Technology enabled, door-to-door, multi-modal travel encompassing pre-trip, in-trip and post-trip services to improve journey experience to the Mobility User

Source: Urban Science

TAXI SERVICES

BIKE SHARING

PUBLIC TRANSPORT

CORPORATE CARSHARING

CAR RENTAL

CARSHARING

RIDESHARING

CASH / CAR ALLOWANCE

PARKING

INTEGRATED MOBILITY

E-MOBILITY

MICRO-MOBILITY SOLUTIONS

MOBILITY AUDIT / BUDGET

LOYALTY PROGRAMME / ECOSYSTEM

PARTNERSHIP

LCV

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MobilityIntegrators

OEMs

Leasing Companies

Travel Management Companies

Software Platform Providers

Fleet Management

Providers

Public Transport Operators

Integrated Solution

Providers

Car Rental Companies

Mobility Landscape – Many Players, New Partnerships, New ModelsIn both B2C and B2B environments customers are demanding intuitive services; many actors investing significantly in order to deliver the ‘killer’ seamless proposition & user experience.

Corporate Car-Sharing

Bike Sharing

Parking

Car Rental

Ecosystem Partnership

Integrated Mobility

E-Mobility

Micro-mobility

Public Transport

Car Sharing

Ridesharing

Taxi Services

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Traditional• Round-trip /station based

services – vehicles rented & returned to same location (e.g. Zipcar)

• One-way fixed point to point journeys (e.g. Autolib)

• One Way – Free Floating services; vehicles rented from or two anywhere in a specified zone (e.g. car2go, DriveNow)

Peer to Peer• Short rental/a few days• Insurance - key to the

operating model/platforms• Key Players incl.

Getaround, RelayRides, Wheelz, Buzzcar, Tamyca

Corporate• Dedicated fleet of vehicles at

company premises for the shared use amongst the company’s employees.

• Integrated keyless operations, vehicle telematics, and analytics technologies key

• Key Players incl. AlphaCity, Ubeeqo

Carsharing Business ModelsThere are already several well established vehicle sharing business models catering to several customer groups and use cases, by the minute, hour or longer term corporate carsharing/leasing

5,000,000Members

90,000Vehicles

1,500,000Members

147,500Vehicles

60,000Members

4,000 Vehicles

…already nearly 7m people use these shared services globally

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Global Carsharing Membership and Fleet SizeBy 2014, membership is expected to grow to nearly 5 million, and the number of vehicles to 92,200, for a member-to-vehicle ratio of about 54:1.

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

5.00

2006 2008 2010 2012 2013 2014*

Mem

bers

(Mill

ion)

YearNorth America Europe Asia

Australia Latin America

0.00

10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

50.00

60.00

70.00

80.00

90.00

100.00

2006 2008 2010 2012 2013 2014*

Vehi

cles

(‘00

0)

Year

North America Europe Asia

Australia Latin America

11,501

19,403

31,967

55,390

69,107

92,200*

Carsharing Market: Membership and Fleet Size, Global, 2006–2014

*Forecasted figuresNote: All figures are rounded. The base year is 2013. Source: Frost & Sullivan

0.35

0.67

1.16

2.34

3.48

4.94*

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0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020Earlier Predicted Member (Million) 1.3 1.7 2.4 3.3 4.7 6.6 8.9 12.0 15.8 20.5 26.2

Earlier Predicted Vehicle ('000) 31.72 40.51 53.94 71.61 96.03 129.69 168.26 216.79 271.81 343.35 446.48

Vehi

cles

(‘00

0)

Mem

bers

(Mill

ion)

Year

Global Traditional Carsharing GrowthHaving outperformed our previous forecast for Carsharing members 3.5 vs. 3.3 in 2013, Frost & Sullivan is confident of 26.2 million members in 2020 based on continued new entrants and market penetration

Note: Above forecast does not include Latin America, expect for Brazil.

Carsharing Market: Carsharing Vehicles and Members Growth, Global, 2010–2020

Worldwide nearly 26.2 million

subscriptions expected by 2020

Actual Growth:3.48 million members (2013)

69,110 vehicles (2013)

Note: All figures are rounded. The base year is 2013. Source: Frost & Sullivan

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Carsharing Ecosystem – The Key Stakeholders While the customer is at the heart of the carsharing business model, an operator requires partners for a successful service, such as parking, in car technology, and customer service

Public Sector• Parking policy• License validation• Integrated mobility• Car registration and tax

In-car Technology• Keyless access hardware• On-board unit• Connectivity (e.g., embedded GPS)• Call function• Navigation and parking

Parking• Reserved space (two-way)• Any public space (one-way)• Host-based (e.g., driveway)

Member Services• RFID card/member pack• Member registration• Call center

Services• Road assistance• Car cleaning• Maintenance• Damage

management• Marketing/

wrapping

Customer

Insurance and Fuel Card• Per member or fleet insurance• Fuel provided by operator

Vehicle• OEM or Fleet

Car Independent Technology• Reservation system• Web site/mobile app• IT platform

Source: Frost & Sullivan

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The more familiar customers are with Car Sharing, the higher their interest in becoming a member

N= 2,038 (Car Sharing Services non members, who provided 1 to 5 rate for both questions)Q20. How would you rate your familiarity with the concept of car sharing services? (1 to 5 Rating Answer) Q25. How would you rate your current interest in becoming a member of a car sharing service in your city? (1 to 5 Rating Answer)

n=2,038 n=632 n=703 n=703

(5) Very interested

(4) Somewhat interested

(3) Neither interestednor uninterested

(2) Not interested

(1) Not interestedat all

21% 26% 30% 21% 3% 30% 26% 31% 12% 1% 14% 23% 34% 26% 3% 20% 27% 25% 24% 4%

Level of Familiarity vs. Level of Interest in Car Sharing Services

Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.

Promotional Impact on Interest Rate (*)

62%

Promotional Impact on Interest Rate (*)

94%

Promotional Impact on Interest Rate (*)

59%

Promotional Impact on Interest Rate (*)

55%

Note (*) : Interest rate increase (%) from very unfamiliar to very familiar

Germany has the highest awareness and interest in car sharing from Frost & Sullivan’s extensive Voice of Customer Survey of over 2,400 people

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Carsharing Impact to Car OwnershipThe main attraction of carsharing is cost effectiveness over private car usage; 40% of 1 car households would consider selling the car

Cost effective alternative to privately owned car

No hassles of car ownership

More convenient then using public transport

Environmentally friendly way of transport

Transparency of costs

It would fit my way of living

I always have problems finding parking

I don’t use my private car very frequently

Others

• Cost effective alternative to privately owned car

• and the absence of hassles of car ownership are the top reasons for Car Sharing

Decrease in Car Ownership

• More than 40% of the Owners of 1 vehicle likely to become members of a Car Sharing Service, consider the possibility of selling/getting rid of the current car

• More than 60% of the Non-car Ownersinterested in becoming a Car Sharing member would NOT consider purchasing a new car in addition to the Membership

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Substitution Effects of Shared Mobility Carsharing will not replace one specific transport mode, but will take share from all, with the largest replacement share from Ridesharing, car rental services, and driving your own car

Train

Light rapid train

Underground, tube, subway, or metro

Bus

Car, as a driver

Car, as a passenger

TaxiMotorbike

Rent-a-bicycle

Bicycle

Internet Ride sharingCar rental

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60%

REPLACEMENT SHARE (2)

USA

GE

SHAR

E (1

)Findings from Frost & Sullivan’s carsharing voice of customer survey (n=2,300) showed that of those interested in carsharing:• Highest replacement can be expected from internet ride sharing, car rental, car ownership and taxi use

OVERALL AVERAGE

REPLACEMENT SHARE37.2%

OVERALL AVERAGE USAGE

SHARE46.5 days

Members: 3.5mCars: 70,000

Fewer Cars in 2020Fewer Cars in 2013

1m 2013 6.75m 2020Members: 26mCars: 450,000

What is the Impact of Carsharing on Global Car

Sales?

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Forecasting car-sharing membership in CitiesA comprehensive review of available demographic & car-sharing data was analysed to forecast London’s future potential for car-sharing membership as part of “Vision 2020” between F&S and Zipcar

ROUND-TRIP

ONE-WAY

Establishing baseline growth Incremental growth driven by policy

Historical data• TfL, DVLA and 2011 UK Census,

locations of Zipcar members andvehicles

Historical analysis• Multiple linear regression to establish

which factors affect membership most

Results• Good model fit: 6 statistically-significant

factors, ~70% of variance in membership explained

• Higher uptake linked to: education level, age group, public transport accessibility (PTAI)

Baseline forecasting• Round-trip: regression model• One-way: benchmarking vs. car2go in

US, Autolib in Paris

Action to accelerate adoption• Co-ordinated TfL and Council policies to

increase attractiveness of car sharing to a wider population

Policies considered• Increasing awareness• Ensuring proximity to cars• Graduated Parking Permit Charging• Scrappage Schemes• Ultra Low Emission Zone (ULEZ)

Local variances in policy impacts

• Different characteristics of Central, Inner and Outer London affect adoption rates

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Car Club impact analysis – significant benefits to the CityLondon could achieve up to a 10% reduction in CO2 emissions from cars, with ~120k cars taken off the road in 2020; Londoners would reduce their cost of living by £800m pa

Fewer Cars

Less Pollution

£800m pa 2020

120,000 cars off the road 2020

402,000 tonnes CO2 reduction pa2020

Benefits How/Why?

• £800m pa saving to members• Congestion reduction TBD

• £3k pa saving to members that sold/deferred car ownership

Benefits How/Why?

• 80,000 cars sold/deferred – round trip• 40,000 cars sold/deferred – one way• 821,000 miles reduced pa

• 1 car = 7 sold & 10 deferred (round-trip); 3 sold & 6 deferred (one-way)

Benefits How/Why?

• 177k tonnes less CO2 through mileage reduction; 225k cleaner cars

• 22 tonnes PM10 & 539 tonnes NOX

• Car Club members drive less (57% round-trip, 11% one-way), and in cleaner cars (33% round-trip, 66% one-way – partial EV)

London’s cars reduce by 4.2% in 2020

Increased disposable income to London’s Population (and SMEs)

London’s CO2 Emissions from cars reduce by up to 10% in 2020

Reduce Cost of Living

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Summary from Today’s Presentation

Opportunity: Mobility is becoming far more connected, digital, and integrated –Customer expectations are changing

Several New Mobility business models are emerging – Opportunity for private sector led innovation

Cities need to consider how to adapt – each city is different and should evaluate the benefits & risks

Growth of most mobility business models are linked to public transport accessibility– Several well established companies & business models

Most instances of best practice have included public sector involvement –Consider how mobility can become an integral service

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• Industry leading workshop with all Mobility stakeholders

• Participation from OEMs, rental, leasing, transport operators, policy makers and technology firms

• Outputs filmed live and pre-recorded on site

• Several trade & journalist involvement

• Opportunities to sponsor, present, and demonstrate mobility products & services

Intelligent Mobility Workshop – 1st & 2nd July 2015 Frost & Sullivan host the industry leading mobility workshop each year; 2015 will be the 7th successive mobility workshop to be held in London with a focus on Automated & Intelligent Mobility business models

Website: http://ww2.frost.com/event/calendar/intelligent-mobility-2015/?eID=477

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Thank You & Keep in Touch!

Martyn BriggsIndustry Principal, Mobility,

Direct: (+44) 2079157830Mobile: +44 (0) 753 428 2371 [email protected]

Future of Mobility Video

Join our discussions on LinkedIn and connect with us on @FS_automotive @BriggsMartyn

Watch our latest Video on the Future of Mobility, filmed live at Frost & Sullivan’s Annual Mobility Workshop