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Equity SNAPSHOT Thursday, July 11, 2019
Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity SNAPSHOT
FROM EQUITY RESEARCH
Waskita Karya: Imminent divestment
(WSKT.IJ IDR. 1,955 BUY TP IDR. 2,900)
WSKT seeks to complete the divestment of the Solo-Ngawi and Ngawi-Kertosono toll roads by Aug19. We expect the transaction to
be in the range of 1.8x-3.75x BV based on the historical data. Hence, WSKT might book additional net income of IDR738bn to IDR2.5tn
from both toll roads. We see Astra Group as the most likely potential buyer as the two toll roads are the missing link for Astra in
connecting Semarang and Surabaya. We have a BUY call on WSKT.
To see the full version of this report, please click here
Hutchison 3: Seeking Consolidation The Vice President Director of Hutchison Indonesia (Tri) revealed
that Hutch was aiming for two-digit growth in 2019 supported by
sizeable capex of USD500mn. Hutch is racing to reach optimal scale by 2020-21, when unhindered by debt it would be an attractive
target for consolidation. To see the full version of this report, please click here
MARKET NEWS
MACROECONOMY
▪ Bank Indonesia (BI): IDR stable ahead of Fed meeting
▪ Foreign investors hold state bonds worth IDR1,001trn SECTOR
▪ Cigarette: 2020 excise tax regulation will be issued within Oct to Dec 2019
CORPORATE
▪ BTN plans to issue IDR3tn of subdebt ▪ TOWR: S&P rating raised on Protelindo
▪ Waskita Karya: Hopes to receive IDR63.0tn receivable payments
PREVIOUS REPORT
▪ HM Sampoerna: Fundamentally still strong
▪ Telco Price Tracker: Salient efforts to boost ARPU ▪ Adhi Karya: Removing the land acquisition uncertainty
▪ Perusahaan Gas Negara: Bring it home!
▪ Ace Hardware Indonesia: Valuation Too Premium for Comfort ▪ June 2019 Inflation Update: Prices Softened
▪ Media: Suzanna resurrected VIVA ▪ Industrial Estates: A new landscape for industrial estates
▪ Consumer Confidence: June Results: Slightly Weaker ▪ June 2019 Inflation Outlook: To Rise at a Slower Pace
▪ Port: All aboard!
KEY INDEX
Close
Chg Ytd Vol
(%) (%) (US$ m)
Asean - 5
Indonesia 6.411 0,4 3,5 465
Thailand 1.739 1,0 11,2 2.413
Philippines 8.078 0,4 8,2 92
Malaysia 1.679 (0,2) (0,7) 417
Singapore - - - 713
Regional
China 2.915 (0,4) 16,9 28.830
Hong Kong - - - 8.249
Japan 21.533 (0,1) 7,6 10.476
Korea - - - 3.773
Taiwan 10.798 0,9 11,0 3.318
India 38.557 (0,4) 6,9 303
Nasdaq 8.203 0,7 23,6 103.642
Dow Jones 26.860 0,3 15,1 7.580
CURRENCY AND INTEREST RATE
Rate
w-w m-m ytd
(%) (%) (%)
Rupiah Rp/1US$ 14.132 (0,1) 0,8 1,8
BI7DRRR % 6,00 - - -
10y Gov Indo bond 7,34 0,1 (0,4) (0,7)
HARD COMMODITY
Unit Price
d-d m-m ytd
(%) (%) (%)
Coal US$/ton 75 0,7 2,7 (26,1)
Gold US$/toz 1.422 0,2 7,2 10,9
Nickel US$/mt.ton 12.928 2,2 11,8 21,9
Tin US$/mt.ton 18.148 (0,2) (6,2) (7,0)
SOFT COMMODITY
Unit Price
d-d m-m ytd
(%) (%) (%)
Cocoa US$/mt.ton 2.471 (1,6) 3,2 4,5
Corn US$/mt.ton 163 1,2 9,3 22,2
Oil (WTI) US$/barrel 60 0,1 13,5 33,2
Oil (Brent) US$/barrel 67 4,4 7,6 24,6
Palm oil MYR/mt.ton 1.865 (0,2) (5,6) (4,5)
Rubber USd/kg 140 (0,1) (9,4) 12,2
Pulp US$/tonne 1.205 - 2,8 20,5
Coffee US$/60kgbag 74 (0,5) (2,0) (5,7)
Sugar US$/MT 321 0,7 (3,7) (3,3)
Wheat US$/ton 137 0,4 (1,4) (4,4)
Soy Oil US$/lb 28 0,3 2,2 1,5
Soy Bean US$/by 893 1,2 4,0 1,2
Source: Bloomberg
www.danareksa.com See important disclosure at the back of this report 1
Equity Research Company Update
Thursday,11 July 2019
Waskita Karya (WSKT IJ) BUY
Maintain Imminent divestment
WSKT seeks to complete the divestment of the Solo-Ngawi and Ngawi-Kertosono toll roads by Aug19. We expect the transaction to be in the range of 1.8x-3.75x BV based on the historical data. Hence, WSKT might book additional net income of IDR738bn to IDR2.5tn from both toll roads. We see Astra Group as the most likely potential buyer as the two toll roads are the missing link for Astra in connecting Semarang and Surabaya. We have a BUY call on WSKT.
WSKT seeks to complete the divestment of two toll roads: Solo-Ngawi (90.4km) and Ngawi-Kertosono (87.0km) in Aug19. The asset divestment is a long-time agenda for WSKT and now the company says it has found potential buyers for both toll roads. WSKT owns a 40% stake in both toll roads and plans to sell the entire stakes.
The missing link for Astra connecting Semarang – Surabaya. Although there are no further details regarding the transaction from the management, we believe that Astra Group is the most likely buyer considering: 1) it targets 500km of toll roads, while currently it owns only 350km consisting of 6 toll roads. Recall that In May19 Astra Group bought a 44.5% stake in the Surabaya – Mojokerto (Sumo) toll road from two sellers, Moeladi (24.2%) and Wijaya Karya (WIKA, 20.3%). The transaction value totaled IDR1.7tn. And: 2) both toll roads will connect to Astra’s exiting Semarang – Solo and Jombang – Mojokerto toll roads. Hence, Astra could own toll roads that connect Semarang, the capital city of Central Java and Surabaya, the capital city of East Java.
Divestment valuation. We expect WSKT’s toll road divestment to be in the valuation range of 1.8x-3.75x BV. The 1.8x BV target is based on the Cipali toll road divestment in 2017 as Astra Group bought a 40% stake from Saratoga Group with a transaction value of IDR2.5tn. Meanwhile, the 3.75x maximum range is based on the Sumo transaction between Astra Group and WIKA for a 20.3% stake with a value of IDR715bn. Hence, we expect WSKT to book additional net income of IDR738bn to IDR2.5tn from the transactions.
There are five toll roads targeted to be sold this year. WSKT seeks to divest five toll roads this year with the other three being: Kanci – Pejagan (35km), Pejagan – Pemalang (57.5km), and Pasuruan – Probolinggo (31.3km). WSKT currently owns 30% stakes in those toll roads. Those toll roads were previously bundled in an RDPT issued by WSKT in Apr18. The RDPT valuation stands at 1.87x BV, based on our valuation back then.
Maintain BUY. We see the upcoming assets divestment as the positive catalyst as WSKT might book gains to boost its P&L performance and help increase the working capital. Astra’s ambitious target for connecting Semarang – Surabaya might boost the valuation for the divestment which is a favorable for WSKT.
Last price (IDR) 1,955
Target Price (IDR) 2,900
Upside/Downside +48.3%
Previous Target Price (IDR) 2,900
Stock Statistics
Sector Construction
Bloomberg Ticker WSKT IJ
No of Shrs (mn) 13,574
Mkt. Cap (IDRbn/USDmn) 26,537/1,878
Avg. daily T/O (IDRbn/USDmn) 89.4/6.3
Major shareholders (%)
Govt. Indonesia 66.0
Public 34.0
EPS Consensus (IDR)
2019F 2020F 2021F
Danareksa 213.8 236.8 260.5
Consensus 258.2 252.4 244.9
Danareksa/Cons (17.2) (6.2) 6.4
WSKT relative to JCI Index
Source : Bloomberg
x Maria Renata
(62-21) 2955 5888 ext.3513
Key Financials Year to 31 Dec 2017A 2018A 2019F 2020F 2021F
Revenue (IDRbn) 45,213 48,789 46,552 51,789 56,140 EBITDA (IDRbn) 6,861 6,586 6,489 7,160 7,781 EBITDA Growth (%) 130.7 (4.0) (1.5) 10.3 8.7 Net profit (IDRbn) 3,882 3,963 2,903 3,215 3,536 EPS (IDR) 334.1 291.9 213.8 236.8 260.5 EPS growth (%) 126.5 (12.6) (26.8) 10.8 10.0 BVPS (IDR) 1,205.6 1,326.2 1,484.3 1,681.3 1,897.4 DPS (IDR) 37.9 57.2 58.4 42.8 47.4 PER (x) 5.9 6.7 9.1 8.3 7.5 PBV (x) 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.0 Dividend yield (%) 1.9 2.9 3.0 2.2 2.4 EV/EBITDA (x) 9.5 12.2 11.3 10.7 9.8
Source : WSKT, Danareksa Estimates
www.danareksa.com See important disclosure at the back of this report 1
Equity Research Hutchison Company Update
Thursday, 11 July 2019
Hutchinson 3 (Tri) Not Rated
Seeking Consolidation
The Vice President Director of Hutchison Indonesia (Tri) revealed that Hutch was aiming for two-digit growth in 2019 supported by sizeable capex of USD500mn. Hutch is racing to reach optimal scale by 2020-21, when unhindered by debt it would be an attractive target for consolidation.
The telco with a deadline to meet. Hutch 3 previously burdened by heavy debt ~Rp47tn in the balance sheet, embarks into new sails, debt-free, to roll-out 4G network in Java and non-Java particularly Sumatra and Sulawesi. Hutch, given the limited spectrum size holding, it aims to bring ship into economies of scale with strong revenue growth by 2020-21 and by then make bid to new radio spectrum either from new auction or resulted through partnerships with peers. Key takeaway: massive growth by Indonesian standards. Key takeaway is that Hutch aims to grow its topline by 20% this year pressing gas by deploying new 9,000 4G base stations in 2019 to add to existing 22,000 at end FY18. Network improvements and BTS rollout will be supported with capex ~USD500mn which approximates to 50% capex/sales ratio. After challenging sim-reregistration process, Hutch registered ~18mn subs according to Dukcapil, and quickly climb back to ~40mn base currently, with a sizeable core generating ARPU ~40k. Hutch 3 aims to raise EBITDA margin over to 35-38% area from 30% resulted in 2018. Industry talks suggest that Hutch 3 is traditionally a champion in running cost-effective operations and vice President Director spoke on the cost/site benefits of 4G, while he noted on discounts to tower leases it managed to secure recently. It also emphasized the benefits of shutting down 4,000 2G BTS, and rearranging its spectrum left heavy on 3G/4G. Company takes a more constructive view on the market. Considering top tier telcos and aggressive Smartfren, Hutch sees strong growth in the current 4G market equation. While Hutch and Smartfren are expected to achieve 2-digit revenue growth in 2019, Hutch suggests to taking a more constructive view. Hutch claims to generate Rp7000-8000/GB yield closer to XL, and higher than Indosat’s actual figures. Hutch also claims that is ahead of its peers in the migration to data with +90% subscriber usage on data with 7GB/user/month. Hutch seeks consolidation. Hutch receives more clarity from regulation view stance in case of consolidation. If auhorities deem necessary to take back spectrum from a newly formed telco. The new telco has reservation to claim it for use after a time period. Uncertainty lies more with regards to desire of telco shareholders to relinquish their ownership-control partial or whole, but Hutch is open to consider options detailing shared management and/or 50/50 ownership. Hutch is also in anticipation to read the stance of the new management of Telkom and Telkomsel which would likely determine the course of discussions for network sharing if not consolidation scenarios. The Vice President Director is an ardent proponent of consolidation hinting that is more open to work with top 2 and 3 largest Operator in the country, to maximize expected synergies amounting to USD3-4bn. moreover he would prefer to avoid a scenario where Telenor-Axiata merger which potentially empower XL further in Indonesia. In our view such scenario happening in 3Q19 would entail the risk of accelerating sector developments and corporate actions before 4G has actually time to mature in the country. Hutch is pressing the gas. hutch 50% front loading capex, is credible effort to make its claim in Indonesian 4G market share. The Opensignal results suggest Hutch making salient network improvements, which support expectations for 2-digit growth as ex-Java comes into the picture. Bottom line, there is about ~Rp3tn additional revenue Hutch is claiming from the market; more 4G adoption and room for ex-Java expansion may just about cover it.
Last price (IDR) 870
Stock Statistics
Sector
Bloomberg Ticker
No of Shrs (mn)
Mkt. Cap (IDRbn/USDmn)
Avg. daily T/O (IDRbn/USDmn)
Major shareholders (%)
PT Integra Indo Lestari
Estimate free float
Niko Margaronis
(62-21) 2955 5888 ext. 3512
Equity SNAPSHOT Thursday, July 11, 2019
Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity SNAPSHOT
MACROECONOMY Bank Indonesia (BI): IDR stable ahead of Fed meeting
BI has stated that the IDR is stable at IDR14,132/USD in the spot market as of 10 Jul19 as the market awaits an expected cut in the US policy rate by 25 bps. Furthermore, BI also stated that this rate cut may help to bolster
sentiment in global stock prices and emerging market currencies including the rupiah. (Investor Daily)
Foreign investors hold state bonds worth IDR1,001trn
Foreign ownership of state marketable securities reached a new record of IDR1,001trn. Foreign investors bought IDR12.25trn in the first 6 days of Jul19. Meanwhile, foreign ownership in the stock market as of 21 Jun19 reached
51.98% of the total stocks in the KSEI, with a value of IDR1,908.65trn. Thus, the total value of foreign funds in stocks and bonds is almost IDR3,000trn, or 20% of the national GDP. (Kontan)
SECTOR Cigarette: 2020 excise tax regulation will be issued within Oct to Dec 2019
The government plans to issue the regulation on 2020 tobacco excise tax along with the tariff simplification within October to December 2019. The government is also reviewing the plan to combine the tariff category for Machine-
made cigarettes (SKM) and White cigarettes (SPM). Following strong growth in 5M19 cigarette excise tax realization, the chief of customs and tax of fiscal policy (BKF) stated that there was an indication of stronger production and
consumption of cigarettes this year. (Bisnis Indonesia)
CORPORATE
BTN plans to issue IDR3tn of subdebt PT Bank Tabungan Negara (Persero) Tbk (BBTN IJ, BUY, TP IDR3,000) is aiming to issue subordinated debt of
IDR3tn in 2H19. The issuance would increase its CAR within the 18% range. This instrument will be classified as
tier-2 capital. Previously, the bank delayed the global bond issuance plan to next year due to macro and global economic considerations. (Investor Daily)
TOWR: S&P rating raised on Protelindo
On July 8, 2019, S&P Global Ratings raised its long-term issuer credit rating on Protelindo to 'BBB' from 'BBB-'. We
affirmed the 'AA' long-term issue rating on the company's senior unsecured notes. The stable outlook reflects our expectation that Protelindo will continue to generate steady cash flows and maintain its debt-to-EBITDA ratio below
3x over the next 12-24 months even if it makes any tower acquisitions or dividend payouts. Therefore, we still maintain our target price on TOWR at IDR960. (S&P Global Ratings Update)
Waskita Karya: Hopes to receive IDR63.0tn receivable payments
Waskita Karya (WSKT) booked IDR7.2tn of new contracts as of May19. The 5M19 new contracts accounted for
12.9% of the target set at IDR55.8tn (+105.0%yoy). Some major contracts booked were: Juanda airport of IDR623bn, Istiqlal Masque of IDR423bn, Becakayu Section 2A toll road of IDR773bn, Hassanudin Airport Makassar
of IDR422bn, and the rest area in Bakaheuni – Terbanggi Besar toll road of IDR343bn. WSKT is hoping to receive IDR63.0tn receivable payments comprising IDR26.5tn for the payment of a turnkey project and IDR29.0tn from
regular projects, and IDR7.8tn for land procurement from the government. (Investor Daily)
MARKET NEWS
Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity SNAPSHOT
DANAREKSA VALUATION
Equity SNAPSHOT Thursday, July 11, 2019
Rating Price (Rp) Price Mkt Cap
Target Rp Bn 2019 2020 2019 2020 2019 2020 2019 2020 2019 2020 2019 2020 2019 2020 2019 2020
Danareksa Universe 4.111.554 227.695 250.507 253,7 279,2 9,6% 10,0% 18,1 16,4 18,7 17,3 3,1 2,8 18,3 18,2
Auto 301.602 23.749 25.429 477,6 511,4 9,6% 7,1% 12,7 11,9 9,6 8,8 2,0 1,8 16,7 16,2
Astra International BUY 7.450 8.800 301.602 23.749 25.429 587 628 587 628 20,4% 7,1% 12,7 11,9 9,6 8,8 2,0 1,8 16,7 16,2
Banks 1.371.947 77.136 86.502 767,1 860,2 12,3% 12,1% 17,8 15,9 2,6 2,4 15,7 15,7
BCA HOLD 30.000 28.000 739.650 29.062 32.404 1.179 1.314 1.179 1.314 10,7% 11,5% 25,5 22,8 N/A N/A 4,3 3,7 17,8 17,4
BNI BUY 9.150 10.500 170.635 16.937 19.256 908 1.033 908 1.033 12,8% 13,7% 10,1 8,9 N/A N/A 1,4 1,2 14,7 14,9
Bank Tabungan Negara BUY 2.450 3.000 25.946 3.088 3.678 292 347 292 347 -11,6% 19,1% 8,4 7,1 N/A N/A 1,0 0,9 12,2 13,2
Bank Mandiri BUY 7.950 8.700 371.000 28.049 31.164 601 668 601 668 14,7% 11,1% 13,2 11,9 N/A N/A 1,9 1,7 14,9 15,1
BTPN HOLD 3.560 3.800 29.005 2.518 2.707 309 332 438 471 3,0% 7,5% 11,5 10,7 N/A N/A 1,5 1,3 13,4 12,9
BTPS HOLD 3.390 3.100 26.116 1.234 1.501 160 195 160 195 23,4% 21,6% 21,2 17,4 N/A N/A 5,3 4,3 27,7 27,4
BPD Jatim BUY 640 850 9.595 1.356 1.446 90 96 91 97 7,3% 6,6% 7,1 6,6 N/A N/A 1,1 1,0 15,5 15,4
Cigarettes 512.239 24.145 26.773 204 226 13,2% 10,9% 21,2 19,1 14,7 13,0 5,9 5,3 28,3 29,1
Gudang Garam BUY 76.400 96.400 147.000 9.134 10.423 4.747 5.417 4.747 5.416 10,3% 14,1% 16,1 14,1 10,3 9,1 2,9 2,5 18,6 19,3
HM Sampoerna BUY 3.140 4.400 365.239 15.011 16.350 129 141 129 141 11,5% 8,9% 24,3 22,3 18,1 16,1 9,9 9,4 41,6 43,2
Construction 124.406 11.594 13.023 155 174 -0,3% 12,3% 10,7 9,6 9,10 8,10 1,4 1,2 13,8 13,7
Wijaya Karya BUY 2.340 3.400 20.990 2.320 2.738 259 305 259 305 46,1% 18,0% 9,0 7,7 5,2 3,9 1,3 1,1 15,1 15,3
Pembangunan Perumahan BUY 2.150 2.900 13.330 1.703 1.965 275 317 275 317 -2,2% 15,4% 7,8 6,8 3,7 3,3 0,9 0,8 12,4 12,8
Adhi Karya BUY 1.590 2.300 5.662 733 847 206 238 206 238 -2,7% 15,6% 7,7 6,7 5,4 4,9 0,8 0,6 10,0 10,4
Waskita Karya BUY 2.010 2.900 27.284 2.903 3.215 214 237 214 237 -33,6% 10,7% 9,4 8,5 11,4 10,8 1,4 1,2 15,4 15,0
Waskita Beton BUY 420 500 11.072 1.189 1.335 45 51 49 54 -15,1% 12,3% 9,3 8,3 8,5 8,0 1,3 1,3 14,8 15,8
Wika Beton BUY 560 730 4.881 554 651 64 75 66 78 25,3% 17,5% 8,8 7,5 5,8 5,1 1,4 1,2 16,9 17,5
Jasa Marga BUY 5.675 6.700 41.188 2.192 2.272 302 313 302 313 25,8% 3,6% 18,8 18,1 17,7 15,6 2,2 2,0 12,5 11,4
Consumer 655.299 18.844 20.603 282 308 -4,4% 9,3% 34,8 31,8 20,1 18,8 8,2 7,5 24,9 24,7
Indofood CBP BUY 10.125 11.000 118.077 4.620 4.885 396 419 396 419 10,6% 5,7% 25,6 24,2 20,0 20,1 4,9 4,5 20,2 19,4
Indofood BUY 6.900 7.950 60.585 4.494 5.083 512 579 512 579 0,0% 13,1% 13,5 11,9 5,6 5,7 1,7 1,6 12,9 13,6
Unilever HOLD 45.000 44.000 343.350 7.532 8.041 987 1.054 987 1.054 -1,8% 6,8% 45,6 42,7 32,3 29,9 45,2 45,0 114,5 105,6
Kino Indonesia BUY 2.860 3.400 4.086 188 232 132 162 131 163 102,9% 23,4% 21,7 17,6 12,2 10,8 1,8 1,6 8,5 9,6
Mayora Indah BUY 2.400 3.050 53.661 2.010 2.362 90 106 90 106 15,1% 17,5% 26,7 22,7 14,8 12,9 5,5 4,6 22,1 22,0
Sido Muncul BUY 1.000 1.250 15.000 803 928 54 62 54 62 17,1% 15,6% 18,7 16,2 16,5 13,9 4,9 4,6 26,3 29,3
Healthcare 87.111 3.074 3.398 141 159 37,5% 13,0% 28,3 25,6 18,4 16,8 4,4 3,9 16,4 16,2
Kalbe Farma HOLD 1.465 1.400 68.672 2.600 2.852 55 61 56 61 2,4% 9,7% 26,4 24,1 16,9 15,4 4,2 3,8 16,7 16,6
Kimia Farma HOLD 3.320 3.120 18.439 474 546 85 98 85 98 76,9% 15,2% 38,9 33,8 25,5 22,8 5,1 4,6 15,0 14,3
Heavy Equipment 104.537 11.749 12.266 3.150 3.288 5,6% 4,4% 8,9 8,5 4,3 4,0 1,7 1,5 21,4 19,0
United Tractors BUY 28.025 36.000 104.537 11.749 12.266 3.150 3.288 3.150 3.288 33,8% 4,4% 8,9 8,5 4,3 4,0 1,7 1,5 21,4 19,0
Industrial Estate 20.229 1.260 1.870 20 30 29,8% 48,4% 16,1 10,8 11,5 7,5 1,2 1,2 8,0 11,1
Puradelta Lestari HOLD 280 260 13.495 697 853 14 18 15 18 8,0% 22,4% 19,4 15,8 18,9 14,4 1,8 1,8 9,5 11,4
Bekasi Fajar BUY 320 330 3.087 561 701 58 73 58 73 12,7% 25,0% 5,5 4,4 5,8 3,8 0,7 0,6 12,5 14,2
Surya Semesta HOLD 775 590 3.647 2 316 0 67 1 67 -102,2% 15700,0% 1.823,3 11,5 9,6 4,5 0,9 0,8 0,1 7,3
Media 41.618 3.409 3.736 117 129 10,3% 9,6% 12,2 11,1 7,3 6,6 2,6 2,3 21,9 21,8
Media Nusantara Citra BUY 1.260 1.200 17.988 1.613 1.761 113 123 113 123 -17,7% 9,2% 11,2 10,2 6,1 5,8 1,7 1,5 15,3 15,6
Surya Citra Media BUY 1.600 2.350 23.630 1.796 1.975 122 134 123 135 13,2% 10,0% 13,2 12,0 8,7 7,7 4,4 3,8 35,9 33,9
Mining 156.878 17.334 18.039 195 203 -0,5% 4,1% 9,1 8,7 4,1 4,0 1,1 1,0 12,5 12,1
Adaro Energy BUY 1.345 2.000 43.021 6.135 5.881 192 184 198 184 -16,8% -4,1% 7,0 7,3 2,9 2,9 0,8 0,7 12,0 10,5
Timah BUY 1.035 1.600 7.708 721 835 97 112 97 112 19,6% 15,8% 10,7 9,2 5,4 4,9 1,1 1,0 10,6 11,5
Vale Indonesia BUY 2.920 4.400 29.014 679 1.315 68 132 71 127 -39,2% 93,8% 42,8 22,1 8,9 6,5 1,1 1,0 2,7 4,7
Aneka Tambang BUY 820 1.000 19.705 807 856 34 36 34 36 88,5% 6,1% 24,4 23,0 9,2 9,2 1,0 1,0 4,1 4,2
Bukit Asam BUY 2.940 5.200 33.871 5.161 5.321 448 462 475 490 2,8% 3,1% 6,6 6,4 4,4 4,7 1,9 1,7 30,2 28,3
Indo Tambangraya Megah BUY 17.500 30.000 19.774 3.350 3.294 2.965 2.915 2.969 2.912 -14,2% -1,7% 5,9 6,0 2,8 2,8 1,5 1,5 24,1 24,3
Harum Energy BUY 1.400 2.000 3.785 481 537 178 199 184 198 -27,5% 11,8% 7,9 7,0 0,5- 1,0- 0,8 0,8 10,9 11,6
Plantation 32.357 3.068 2.995 288 282 9,1% -2,4% 10,5 10,8 5,2 5,1 1,0 0,9 9,3 8,6
Astra Agro Lestari BUY 10.500 16.500 20.209 1.868 1.761 971 915 970 915 14,0% -5,7% 10,8 11,5 5,4 5,3 1,0 0,9 9,5 8,4
Sampoerna Agro BUY 2.240 3.000 4.234 397 402 210 213 218 221 10,3% 1,3% 10,7 10,5 6,4 6,3 1,0 0,9 9,3 8,8
PP London Sumatra BUY 1.160 2.000 7.915 803 832 118 122 118 122 -2,8% 3,6% 9,9 9,5 3,9 3,5 0,9 0,8 9,1 9,0
Poultry 116.606 6.029 7.087 40 47 -14,0% 17,5% 19,3 16,5 12,2 10,5 3,4 2,9 18,4 19,1
Charoen Pokphand SELL 5.725 4.500 93.879 3.878 4.511 236 275 237 275 13,9% 16,3% 24,2 20,8 16,1 13,8 4,4 3,8 19,4 19,6
Japfa Comfeed HOLD 1.710 1.600 20.052 1.887 2.292 161 195 161 195 5,6% 21,5% 10,6 8,7 6,6 6,1 1,8 1,6 17,5 19,3
Malindo Feedmill HOLD 1.195 1.300 2.675 264 284 118 127 118 127 118,0% 7,6% 10,1 9,4 8,3 6,6 1,2 1,1 13,3 12,4
Property 109.595 7.297 7.857 61 65 13,3% 7,7% 15,0 13,9 9,6 9,6 1,4 1,3 9,8 9,8
Alam Sutera BUY 346 400 6.799 1.200 1.371 61 70 61 70 -25,2% 14,3% 5,7 5,0 6,0 5,6 0,6 0,6 11,7 12,1
Bumi Serpong Damai BUY 1.480 1.700 28.485 2.034 2.050 106 107 106 107 -28,4% 0,8% 14,0 13,9 9,0 11,2 1,0 1,0 7,3 7,1
Ciputra Development BUY 1.125 1.350 20.880 953 1.115 51 60 51 60 -18,6% 17,0% 21,9 18,7 12,8 11,1 1,3 1,3 6,3 6,8
Pakuw on Jati HOLD 735 690 35.397 2.667 2.777 55 58 55 58 14,6% 4,1% 13,3 12,7 8,4 7,9 2,4 2,1 19,6 17,3
Summarecon HOLD 1.250 1.100 18.033 443 544 31 38 31 38 15,7% 22,8% 40,7 33,1 13,9 13,7 2,5 2,3 6,3 7,2
Retail 74.324 4.215 4.761 82 93 14,2% 12,9% 17,6 15,6 9,4 8,2 4,1 3,7 24,9 25,0
Mitra Adi Perkasa BUY 920 1.050 15.272 826 932 50 56 50 56 -90,6% 12,8% 18,5 16,4 7,0 5,8 3,1 2,7 17,5 17,4
Ramayana BUY 1.380 1.900 9.792 683 736 96 104 101 109 10,2% 7,7% 14,3 13,3 7,1 6,2 2,1 2,0 16,3 15,6
Matahari Department Store BUY 3.270 11.000 9.172 2.069 2.182 738 778 709 748 5,6% 5,5% 4,4 4,2 2,1 1,8 2,5 2,1 61,6 53,8
Matahari Putra Prima SELL 232 200 1.747 (496) (348) (66) (46) (92) (65) 53,4% 29,8% (3,5) (5,0) 29,3- 31,9 (436,7) (5,0) (241,9) 195,5
Ace Hardw are BUY 1.845 1.600 31.642 1.133 1.259 66 73 66 74 18,2% 11,1% 27,9 25,1 25,3 22,7 6,7 5,8 25,7 24,7
Erajaya Sw asembada BUY 2.100 4.000 6.699 931 1.075 292 337 292 337 33,5% 15,5% 7,2 6,2 4,0 4,6 1,2 1,1 19,3 18,5
Telco 531.535 21.275 23.302 125 136 39,9% 9,5% 25,0 22,8 6,3 5,9 3,5 3,3 14,4 14,8
Telekomunikasi Indonesia BUY 4.290 4.300 424.977 19.231 20.246 194 204 194 204 -5,8% 5,3% 22,1 21,0 6,4 5,9 3,9 3,5 18,7 17,7
Indosat BUY 2.830 3.100 15.378 (1.769) (1.556) (326) (286) (326) (286) -391,7% 12,0% (8,7) (9,9) 3,6 4,2 1,6 2,0 (15,8) (18,0)
XL Axiata BUY 2.890 3.600 30.888 419 708 39 66 39 66 -6,8% 69,0% 73,7 43,6 4,8 4,2 1,6 1,6 2,1 3,7
Tow er Bersama BUY 4.130 4.500 18.715 917 1.144 202 252 211 264 -5,9% 24,8% 20,4 16,4 9,7 9,0 3,8 3,4 23,4 22,1
Sarana Menara Nusantara BUY 815 960 41.577 2.477 2.760 49 54 49 54 7,8% 11,4% 16,8 15,1 9,2 8,9 4,5 4,0 28,3 27,9
EV / EBITDA (x) PBV (x) ROE
Equity
Valuation Net profit, Rp bn EPS (Rp) Core EPS (Rp) EPS Growth PER (x)
Equity SNAPSHOT Thursday, July 11, 2019
Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity SNAPSHOT
LEADERS Price as on Code 10-Jul-19 09-Jul-19 Chg, % w-w, % m-m, % YTD, % Rating
Indosat ISAT 2.830 2.630 7,6 9,7 34,8 68,0 HOLD
Erajaya Swasembada ERAA 2.100 1.960 7,1 (2,8) 57,9 (4,5) BUY
Sarana Menara Nusantara TOWR 815 775 5,2 13,2 10,9 18,1 BUY
Summarecon Agung SMRA 1.250 1.195 4,6 8,7 8,2 55,3 BUY
Charoen Pokphand CPIN 5.725 5.475 4,6 12,3 16,4 (20,8) SELL
Japfa Comfeed JPFA 1.710 1.655 3,3 6,9 13,2 (20,5) HOLD
Pembangunan Perumahan PTPP 2.150 2.090 2,9 - 3,9 19,1 BUY
Waskita Karya WSKT 2.010 1.955 2,8 1,3 5,2 19,6 BUY
Ciputra Development CTRA 1.125 1.095 2,7 (0,4) 7,1 11,4 BUY
Malindo Feedmill MAIN 1.195 1.165 2,6 6,7 14,4 (14,3) HOLD
Sources: Bloomberg
LAGGARDS Price as on Code 10-Jul-19 09-Jul-19 Chg, % w-w, % m-m, % YTD, % Rating
Matahari Putra Prima MPPA 232 240 (3,3) 6,4 12,6 52,6 SELL
Bekasi Fajar BEST 320 328 (2,4) 2,6 15,1 53,8 BUY
Ace Hardware ACES 1.845 1.890 (2,4) 2,2 3,1 23,8 BUY
Mitra Adi Perkasa MAPI 920 940 (2,1) 4,0 1,1 14,3 BUY
Astra Agro Lestari AALI 10.500 10.700 (1,9) 0,5 1,2 (11,2) BUY
Ramayana RALS 1.380 1.405 (1,8) (0,7) (20,9) (2,8) HOLD
Vale Indonesia INCO 2.920 2.970 (1,7) (0,3) (0,3) (10,4) BUY
Puradelta Lestari DMAS 280 284 (1,4) (4,1) 4,5 76,1 BUY
Telekomunikasi Indonesia TLKM 4.290 4.350 (1,4) 1,2 8,2 16,0 BUY
XL Axiata EXCL 2.890 2.930 (1,4) 1,0 (1,7) 46,0 BUY
Sources: Bloomberg
COVERAGE PERFORMANCE
Equity SNAPSHOT Thursday, July 11, 2019
Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity SNAPSHOT
PREVIOUS REPORTS
▪ HM Sampoerna: Fundamentally still strong
▪ Telco Price Tracker: Salient efforts to boost ARPU ▪ Adhi Karya: Removing the land acquisition uncertainty
▪ Perusahaan Gas Negara: Bring it home! ▪ Ace Hardware Indonesia: Valuation Too Premium for Comfort
▪ Danareksa Research Institute: June 2019 Inflation Update - Prices Softened
▪ Media: Suzanna resurrected VIVA ▪ Industrial Estates: A new landscape for industrial estates
▪ Consumer Confidence: June Results: Slightly Weaker ▪ Danareksa Research Institute: June 2019 Inflation Outlook - To Rise at a Slower Pace
▪ Port: All aboard!
▪ Bank Rakyat Indonesia: KL NDR Key takeaways
▪ Wijaya Karya: Weak new government contracts ▪ Property: Easing of the super luxury tax creates a mismatch
▪ United Tractors: Slight improvement in Komatsu sales in May 2019 ▪ Danareksa Research Institute: Trade Update - Small Trade Surplus
▪ Astra International: Flattish domestic car sales in May 2019
▪ Banking: Stimulus policy for additional liquidity ▪ Mayora Indah: Good 1H19 results on the card
▪ Telco: 5G update – invasion of the machines ▪ BTPN Syariah: Time to take profits
▪ Poultry: Could Grab and OVO save the chicken? ▪ Media Nusantara: Downgrade on heightened risks
▪ Indocement Tunggal Prakasa: Maintaining market share
▪ Ramayana Lestari Sentosa: Solid 5M19 Sales
Equity SNAPSHOT Thursday, July 11, 2019
Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity SNAPSHOT
PT Danareksa Sekuritas
Jl. Medan Merdeka Selatan No. 14 Jakarta 10110 Indonesia Tel (62 21) 29 555 888 Fax (62 21) 350 1709
Equity Research Team S
Sales team
Maria Renata
[email protected] (62-21) 29555 888 ext.3513 Construction
Stefanus Darmagiri
[email protected] (62-21) 2955 888 ext. 3530
Auto, Coal, Heavy Equip, Metal
Natalia Sutanto
[email protected] (62-21) 29555 888 ext.3508
Consumer, Tobacco, Property
Niko Margaronis
[email protected] (62-21) 29555 888 ext.3512 Telco, Tower
Helmy Kristanto
[email protected] (62-21) 2955 888 ext. 3500
Head of Research, Strategy
Eka Savitri
[email protected] (62-21) 29555 888 ext.3506 Banking
Victor Stefano
[email protected] (62-21) 29555 888 ext.3503 Poultry, Property
Ehrliech Suhartono
[email protected] (62-21) 29555 888 ext. 3132
Laksmita Armandani
[email protected] (62-21) 29555 888 ext. 3125
Vera Ongyono
[email protected] (62-21) 29555 888 ext. 3120
Tuty Sutopo
[email protected] (62-21) 29555 888 ext. 3121
Wisnu Budhiargo
[email protected] (62-21) 29555 888 ext. 3117
Upik Yuzarni
[email protected] (62-21) 29555 888 ext. 3137
Anetta Hasan
(62-21) 29555 888 ext. 3140
Adeline Solaiman
(62-21) 29555 888 ext. 3503
Rendy Ben Philips
[email protected] (62-21) 29555 888 ext. 3148
Ignatius Teguh Prayoga
[email protected] (62-21) 29555 888 ext.3511 Media
Andreas Kenny
[email protected] (62-21) 29555 888 ext.3509 Retail
Thalia Kadharusman
[email protected] (62-21) 29555 888 ext. 3124
Muhammad Naufal Yunas
[email protected] (62-21) 29555 888 ext.3507 Research Associate
Equity SNAPSHOT Thursday, July 11, 2019
Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity SNAPSHOT
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