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Equity Research
Wednesday, December 21, 2016
Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity Research
MARKET NEWS
*Analysts’ comment inside
Government to keep electricity tariffs and fuel prices unchanged up to March 2017
All chains in the cigarette industry will be taxed Medium-sized banks face tighter liquidity BI predicts that the average interest rate on loans will continue to
decline until next year Kalbe Farma targets Rp 1tn of sales from biological drug products Phapros to conduct a Rp 1tn IPO PPRO to conduct stock split before right issue SMRA to develop a township in Makassar Krakatau Steel budgets capex of US$200mn for the development of
several projects in 2017
Previous Reports:
AUTO: November 2016: The highest monthly car sales in 2016 Snapshot20161219
WIKA: Ending the year on a high note, Ace Hardware Indonesia: In-line 11M16 revenues Snapshot20161216
MTLA: Taking the middle way, SMGR: Steady performance--Snapshot20161215
Cement sales November: still sluggish (UNDERWEIGHT), ASRI: Solid marketing sales growth due to one-off transaction, Ramayana Lestari Sentosa: In-line 11M16 gross sales -Snapshot20161214
ACES: Continued inventory problems -Snapshot20161213
IDX ANNOUNCEMENT
AGM EGM Announcement
Code Action Date Time (WIB)
BBRI EGM 21-Dec-16 14.00
BNII EGM 23-Dec-16 10.00
BCIC EGM 23-Dec-16 14.00
MORNING HIGHLIGHT
Key Index
Close
Chg Ytd Vol
(%) (%) (US$ m)
Asean - 5
Indonesia 5,162 (0.6) 12.4 348
Thailand 1,512 (0.7) 17.4 1,139
Philippines 6,659 (0.8) (4.2) 130
Malaysia 1,635 0.0 (3.4) 303
Singapore 2,911 (0.1) 1.0 666
Regional
China 3,103 (0.5) (12.3) 32,856
Hong Kong 21,729 (0.5) (0.8) 6,957
Japan 19,495 0.5 2.4 12,246
Korea 2,052 0.5 4.6 2,491
Taiwan 9,242 0.0 10.8 1,866
India 26,308 (0.3) 0.7 363
NASDAQ 5,484 0.5 9.5 60,326
Dow Jones 19,975 0.5 14.6 7,140
Currency and Interest Rate
Rate
w-w m-m ytd
(%) (%) (%)
Rupiah Rp/1US$ 13,438 (0.8) (0.2) 2.5
SBI rate % 5.90 - - (1.3)
10y Gov Indo bond 7.88 0.0 0.0 (0.9)
Hard Commodities
Unit Price
d-d m-m ytd
(%) (%) (%)
Coal US$/ton 87 0.9 (17.2) 71.9
Gold US$/toz 1,132 (0.0) (6.8) 6.6
Nickel US$/mt.ton 10,868 0.4 0.6 23.8
Tin US$/mt.ton 21,030 (1.3) 3.0 44.1
Soft Commodities
Unit Price
d-d m-m ytd
(%) (%) (%)
Cocoa US$/mt.ton 2,311 1.4 (5.9) (29.3)
Corn US$/mt.ton 128 (1.1) 0.5 (4.1)
Oil (WTI) US$/barrel 54 0.5 12.8 44.6
Oil (Brent) US$/barrel 55 0.8 18.1 48.5
Palm oil MYR/mt.ton 3,265 0.6 12.2 48.4
Rubber USd/kg 194 - 11.8 64.9
Pulp US$/tonne 809 N/A (0.0) 0.7
Coffee US$/60kgbag 142 - (9.4) 29.5
Sugar US$/MT 493 0.5 (8.1) 16.7
Wheat US$/ton 110 (0.4) (5.2) (22.3)
Source: Bloomberg
Equity Research
Wednesday, December 21, 2016
Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity Research
PT Danareksa Sekuritas
Jl. Medan Merdeka Selatan No. 14 Jakarta 10110 Indonesia Tel (62 21) 29 555 888 Fax (62 21) 350 1709
Equity Research Team
Sales team
[email protected] (62 21) 29555 888 ext. 3128
Novrita E. Putrianti [email protected] (62 21) 29555 888 ext. 3132
Ehrliech Suhartono
[email protected] (62-21) 29555 888 ext.3513 Construction
Maria Renata
[email protected] (62 21) 29555 888 ext. 3145
Yunita L. Nababan
[email protected] (62-21) 29555 888 ext.3512 Technical Analyst
Lucky Bayu Purnomo
[email protected] (62-21) 2955 5824 Consumer
Puti Adani
[email protected] (62 21) 29555 888 ext. 3125
Laksmita Armandani
[email protected] (62-21) 29555 888 ext.3504 Cement, Property
Antonia Febe Hartono
[email protected] (62 21) 29555 888 ext. 3109
Muhammad Hardiansyah
[email protected] (62 21) 29555 888 ext. 3121
Tuty Sutopo
[email protected] (62 21) 29555 888 ext. 3137
Upik Yuzarni
[email protected] (62 21) 29555 888 ext. 3139
Kevin Giarto
[email protected] (62-21) 2955 5831 Auto, Coal, Heavy Equip., Metal, Cement
Stefanus Darmagiri
[email protected] (62-21) 29555 888 ext.3508 Consumer, Tobacco, Property
Natalia Sutanto
[email protected] (62-21) 29555 888 ext.3500 Strategy, Banking
Agus Pramono, CFA
[email protected] (62-21) 2955 888 ext. 3503 Retail
Adeline Solaiman
[email protected] (62-21) 2955 888 ext. 3506 Research Associate
Melati Laksmindra Isnandari
Equity Research
Wednesday, December 21, 2016
Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity Research
Government to keep electricity tariffs and fuel prices unchanged up to March 2017
The government, through the Ministry of Energy (ESDM), will keep electricity tariffs and fuel prices unchanged up to March 2017. This should help support purchasing power and keep inflation below 4% in 2017. (Bisnis Indonesia, Investor Daily) All chains in the cigarette industry will be taxed
The Ministry of Finance (MoF) plans to tax all chains in the cigarette industry (previously, VAT was only imposed at the producer level). The Fiscal Policy Agency of the MoF states that plans to impose VAT at all levels will also be followed by increases in VAT tariffs at the producer level from 8.7% to 9.1%. The government will also charge VAT at the consumer level at the rate of 10%. Discussions on this matter are expected to be completed in the following weeks. (Kontan) Medium-sized banks face tighter liquidity
The LDR (loan to deposit ratio) of BUKU III banks as of September 2016 reached 97.59%, or above the OJK safe limit of 92%. The LDR of the banking industry stands at 91.71%. For BUKU IV banks the LDR is 86.61%, followed by BUKU I and BUKU II banks with an LDR of 81.59% and 92.49%, respectively. As of October 2016, the LDR of BBTN reached 103.26%, the highest among the 10 largest banks. The financial director of BBTN said that the bank would maintain its proportion of corporate funds at 15%. (Kontan) BI predicts that the average interest rate on loans will continue to decline until next year
BI projects that average interest rates on loans will continue to decline next year, even though the Fed plans to raise the FFR further. Lower interest rates are expected to be the driver of growth in bank lending. (Investor Daily) Kalbe Farma targets Rp 1tn of sales from biological drug products
Kalbe Farma (KLBF) is targeting Rp 1tn from sales of biological drug products made by Kalbio Global Medika, which specifically produces biological drug raw materials and finished goods. The first product to be developed by Kalbio in 2017 will be erythropoietin for anaemic patients. For the development of Kalbio’s biotechnology production facility, KLBF has invested Rp 500bn, excluding R&D. (Bisnis Indonesia) Phapros to conduct a Rp 1tn IPO
Phapros will conduct a Rp 1tn IPO in 2018, with the proceeds allocated for expansion. Previously, Phapros decided to cancel its plans to conduct an IPO in 2017. (Kontan) PPRO to conduct stock split before right issue
PP Property (PPRO) plans to conduct a stock split (1:4) to increase the liquidity of its stock in January 2017. An AGM will be held on 27 January 2017. Two months after the stock split, the company plans to conduct a rights issue with targeted proceeds of Rp1.5tn. (Bisnis Indonesia) SMRA to develop a township in Makassar
Summarecon Agung (SMRA) through its subsidiary, Bintang Mentari indah, is preparing a township in Makassar. The company plans to develop the land in 2018. The land bank in the area totals 333ha. (Bisnis Indonesia)
Krakatau Steel budgets capex of US$200mn for the development of several projects in 2017
Krakatau Steel (KRAS) plans to spend capex of US$200mn in 2017, which is higher than this year’s expectation of US$180mn. The capex will be spent on several projects such as its Hot Strip Mill (HSM) #2 factory, its push pull picking line and its blast furnace. The source of funds will be from bank loans. The company is expected to start the blow in process in the blast furnace in 1Q17, which is a delay from the initially planned December 2016. (Bisnis Indonesia)
MARKET NEWS
Price Mkt Cap
Target Rp Bn 2016 2017 2016 2017 2016 2017 2016 2017 2016 2017 2016 2017 2016 2017 2016 2016
Danareksa Universe 2,999,582 150,667 176,605 243.4 285.3 3% 17% 19.9 17.0 22.8 20.4 2.8 2.5 14.9
Auto 305,651 15,508 18,375 311.9 369.5 7% 18% 19.7 16.6 14.4 12.3 2.2 2.0 11.7
Astra International HOLD 7,550 8,400 305,651 15,508 18,375 383 454 360 435 7% 18% 19.7 16.6 14.4 12.3 2.2 2.0 27.1 11.7
Banks 1,011,418 74,614 91,514 732.3 898.1 0% 23% 13.6 11.1 2.0 1.7 16.2
BCA HOLD 14,775 16,300 364,278 18,931 20,806 768 844 768 844 5% 10% 19.2 17.5 N/A N/A 3.5 3.1 N/A 19.6
BNI HOLD 5,400 6,100 100,703 10,494 13,698 563 735 563 735 16% 31% 9.6 7.4 N/A N/A 1.1 1.0 N/A 12.7
BRI BUY 11,225 14,500 276,911 26,092 31,100 1,058 1,261 1,058 1,261 3% 19% 10.6 8.9 N/A N/A 1.9 1.7 N/A 20.1
Bank Tabungan Negara BUY 1,655 2,300 17,526 2,200 2,572 208 243 208 243 19% 17% 8.0 6.8 N/A N/A 0.9 0.8 N/A 13.6
Bank Mandiri HOLD 10,800 11,250 252,000 16,898 23,339 724 1,000 724 1,000 -17% 38% 14.9 10.8 N/A N/A 1.6 1.5 N/A 12.4
Cement 135,570 7,891 5,869 406 302 -15% -26% 17.2 23.1 10.9 11.6 2.4 2.3 14.4
Indocement SELL 15,525 14,600 57,151 3,863 2,808 1,049 763 1,042 757 -11% -27% 14.8 20.4 10.3 10.7 2.3 2.2 net cash 15.8
Semen Indonesia SELL 8,925 8,100 52,939 3,792 2,958 639 499 633 492 -16% -22% 14.0 17.9 8.2 9.1 1.9 1.8 6.1 13.8
Semen Baturaja SELL 2,590 400 25,480 236 103 24 11 24 11 -33% -56% 107.8 246.2 62.4 49.0 8.1 7.9 net cash 7.8
Cigarettes 578,300 18,145 19,608 153 166 8% 8% 31.9 29.5 21.6 19.9 8.0 7.3 25.4
Gudang Garam HOLD 62,975 70,400 121,169 6,342 6,860 3,296 3,565 3,296 3,565 -1% 8% 19.1 17.7 11.9 11.0 3.1 2.7 46.6 16.4
HM Sampoerna HOLD 3,930 3,850 457,130 11,803 12,749 101 110 101 109 14% 8% 38.7 35.9 28.7 26.2 13.7 13.3 net cash 36.1
Construction 137,488 6,602 8,166 89 110 36% 24% 20.8 16.8 11.4 9.7 2.8 2.4 15.3
Wijaya Karya BUY 2,410 4,300 21,618 758 900 123 146 123 146 21% 19% 19.5 16.5 10.7 8.8 4.3 3.8 24.6 16.2
Pembangunan Perumahan BUY 3,680 5,700 22,413 967 1,295 200 267 211 298 31% 34% 18.4 13.8 11.1 8.5 4.3 3.6 net cash 20.2
Adhi Karya BUY 2,030 3,500 7,229 703 986 208 292 216 303 52% 40% 9.8 7.0 5.3 4.1 1.1 0.9 net cash 12.2
Waskita Karya BUY 2,430 3,700 32,984 1,688 2,344 124 173 124 173 61% 39% 19.5 14.1 14.1 10.0 3.0 2.5 20.2 16.4
Waskita Beton BUY 545 770 14,367 547 788 21 30 21 30 64% 44% 26.3 18.2 15.4 11.8 2.0 1.9 net cash 13.1
Wika Beton BUY 855 1,300 7,452 268 362 31 42 31 42 54% 35% 27.8 20.6 15.1 10.9 3.0 2.7 net cash 11.5
Jasa Marga BUY 4,330 5,700 31,427 1,671 1,492 246 219 249 223 14% -11% 17.6 19.7 11.1 12.1 2.7 2.4 143.1 15.0
Consumer 401,380 10,506 12,110 507 584 15% 15% 38.2 33.1 27.0 23.4 16.9 16.2 45.0
Indofood CBP BUY 8,175 10,850 95,336 3,714 4,293 319 368 319 368 24% 16% 25.7 22.2 18.0 15.6 5.8 5.7 net cash 22.5
Unilever HOLD 39,650 46,650 302,530 6,563 7,555 860 990 860 990 12% 15% 46.1 40.0 32.7 28.4 57.9 52.4 28.9 130.6
Kino Indonesia BUY 2,460 4,500 3,514 229 262 160 183 160 183 -32% 14% 15.4 13.4 8.9 8.1 1.8 1.6 3.9 12.3
Healthcare 84,334 2,490 2,743 97 106 11% 9% 33.9 30.8 21.8 19.4 6.1 5.4 19.0
Kalbe Farma SELL 1,465 1,400 68,672 2,210 2,441 47 52 47 52 10% 10% 31.1 28.1 19.7 17.7 5.8 5.2 net cash 19.9
Kimia Farma SELL 2,820 1,510 15,662 279 302 50 54 48 52 12% 8% 56.1 51.9 37.8 31.5 7.6 6.8 33.7 14.3
Heavy Equipment 77,214 4,481 5,676 1,201 1,522 16% 27% 17.2 13.6 6.1 4.7 2.0 1.8 12.0
Hexindo Adiperkasa
United Tractors HOLD 20,700 23,500 77,214 4,481 5,676 1,201 1,522 1,231 1,556 16% 27% 17.2 13.6 6.1 4.7 2.0 1.8 net cash 12.0
Mining 165,009 4,311 5,355 54 67 1% 24% 38.3 30.8 10.0 9.1 1.5 1.5 3.9
Adaro Energy HOLD 1,700 800 54,376 1,781 1,980 56 62 56 62 -13% 11% 30.5 27.5 7.6 6.9 1.4 1.4 18.9 4.6
Timah HOLD 1,150 590 8,565 180 196 24 26 24 26 78% 9% 47.6 43.6 11.5 10.6 1.6 1.5 26.0 3.3
Vale Indonesia HOLD 2,880 2,800 28,617 222 480 22 48 22 48 -67% 116% 128.8 59.6 11.9 10.2 1.2 1.2 net cash 0.9
Aneka Tambang HOLD 865 650 20,787 (307) (147) (13) (6) (13) (6) -79% -52% (67.8) (141.1) 27.2 23.9 1.2 1.2 18.0 (1.7)
Bukit Asam BUY 12,100 8,800 27,880 1,610 1,834 741 844 741 844 -21% 14% 16.3 14.3 11.7 9.9 2.8 2.5 net cash 16.7
Indo Tambangraya Megah HOLD 16,575 8,400 18,729 947 1,106 838 979 838 979 14% 17% 19.8 16.9 6.3 5.5 1.6 1.6 net cash 8.4
Harum Energy HOLD 2,240 790 6,056 (123) (95) (45) (35) (45) (35) -540% -22% (49.4) (63.6) 50.2- 61.8- 1.6 1.7 net cash (3.2)
Property 107,060 5,172 6,045 44 52 -16% 17% 20.7 17.7 12.4 12.0 1.7 1.5 8.4
Alam Sutera HOLD 356 380 6,995 820 924 42 47 53 52 38% 13% 8.5 7.6 9.5 9.8 0.3 0.3 33.2 4.2
Bumi Serpong Damai BUY 1,745 2,500 33,585 1,859 2,009 97 104 139 146 -13% 8% 18.1 16.7 11.8 11.6 1.6 1.5 11.5 9.5
Ciputra Development BUY 1,330 1,850 20,516 661 998 43 54 38 45 -38% 26% 31.1 24.7 12.8 12.4 2.3 1.6 42.2 7.7
Pakuwon Jati HOLD 550 700 26,488 1,757 2,019 36 42 34 39 39% 15% 15.1 13.1 11.2 10.2 3.0 2.5 29.6 21.8
Summarecon BUY 1,350 1,600 19,476 75 95 5 7 14 19 -91% 27% 258.8 204.6 18.7 17.8 3.3 3.3 92.8 1.3
Retail 80,493 3,435 3,888 100 114 17% 13% 23.4 20.7 13.6 12.2 5.6 5.2 25.2
Mitra Adi Perkasa HOLD 5,050 5,000 8,383 174 267 108 166 107 165 370% 54% 46.8 30.4 9.8 8.9 2.7 2.6 99.8 5.8
Ramayana BUY 1,135 1,350 8,054 396 468 56 66 54 64 18% 18% 20.2 17.1 14.8 13.1 2.3 2.2 net cash 11.6
Matahari Department Store SELL 14,475 12,000 42,237 2,080 2,370 707 805 704 803 16% 14% 20.5 18.0 14.2 12.4 20.6 17.3 net cash 131.7
Matahari Putra Prima HOLD 1,490 1,700 8,013 129 185 24 34 29 40 -30% 44% 62.4 43.3 14.1 12.0 2.8 2.6 net cash 4.5
Ace Hardware SELL 805 750 13,806 656 598 37 35 38 34 7% -5% 21.8 22.9 16.0 16.1 4.7 4.3 net cash 23.7
Equity
Valuation Rating Price (Rp) Net profit, Rp bn EPS (Rp) EPS Growth PER (x)Core EPS (Rp) EV / EBITDA (x) PBV (x) ROENet Gearing
Equity Research
Wednesday, December 21, 2016
Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity Research
LEADERS Price as on
Code 20-Dec-2016 19-Dec-2016 Chg, % w-w, % m-m, % YTD, % Rating
Bumi Serpong Damai BSDE 1,745 1,725 1.2 (2.0) (2.5) (3.1) BUY
Kalbe Farma KLBF 1,465 1,460 0.3 (5.2) 0.3 11.0 SELL
Bank Central Asia BBCA 14,775 14,725 0.3 0.5 0.3 11.1 HOLD
Adaro Energy ADRO 1,700 1,695 0.3 - 11.1 230.1 HOLD
HM Sampoerna HMSP 3,930 3,920 0.3 (1.3) 4.0 4.5 HOLD
Wika Beton WTON 855 855 - (0.6) 4.9 3.6 BUY
Kimia Farma KAEF 2,820 2,820 - 4.8 21.0 224.1 SELL
Mitra Adi Perkasa MAPI 5,050 5,050 - 0.5 5.0 33.1 HOLD
Alam Sutera ASRI 356 356 - (6.8) (7.3) 3.8 HOLD
Bank Rakyat Indonesia BBRI 11,225 11,250 (0.2) (4.3) (2.0) (1.8) BUY
Sources: Bloomberg
LAGGARDS Price as on
Code 20-Dec-2016 19-Dec-2016 Chg, % w-w, % m-m, % YTD, % Rating
Vale Indonesia INCO 2,880 3,060 (5.9) (11.4) (7.1) 76.1 HOLD
Pembangunan Perumahan PTPP 3,680 3,840 (4.2) (6.6) (1.0) (0.1) BUY
Ace Hardware ACES 805 840 (4.2) (2.4) (3.6) (2.4) SELL
Summarecon Agung SMRA 1,350 1,400 (3.6) (9.1) 0.4 (18.2) BUY
Matahari Putra Prima MPPA 1,490 1,545 (3.6) (11.6) (12.9) (18.4) HOLD
Indo Tambangraya Megah ITMG 16,575 17,150 (3.4) (3.1) 12.8 189.5 HOLD
Matahari Department Store LPPF 14,475 14,950 (3.2) (2.2) (1.5) (17.8) SELL
Kino Indonesia KINO 2,460 2,530 (2.8) (6.1) (18.0) (35.9) BUY
Pakuwon Jati PWON 550 565 (2.7) (14.1) (20.3) 10.9 HOLD
Jasa Marga JSMR 4,330 4,430 (2.3) (3.6) 2.8 (16.9) BUY
Sources: Bloomberg
COVERAGE PERFORMANCE
Equity Research
Wednesday, December 21, 2016
Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity Research
Disclaimer
The information contained in this report has been taken from sources which we deem reliable. However, none of P.T. Danareksa Sekuritas and/or its affiliated
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