Forecasting Trends

7/27/2019 Forecasting Trends

1/89

Q1 Draw the graphs of series and explain the behaviour of the series.

Exp Imp WR

Jul-01 951.9 791.6 84.74 Exp: Pakistan's Exports in million

Aug-01 683.9 938.0 96.89 Imp: Pakistan's Imports in million

Sep-01 780.5 774.5 158.42 WR: Pakistan's Worker's Remittan

Oct-01 800.2 838.3 188.93

Nov-01 760.0 825.3 260.12

Dec-01 711.1 707.7 193.22

Jan-02 722.2 854.8 180.80

Feb-02 699.6 738.1 236.33

Mar-02 654.9 886.6 227.17

Apr-02 725.8 890.1 238.79

May-02 786.0 1119.3 255.10

Jun-02 846.1 975.3 268.54

Jul-02 816.7 927.2 307.41

Aug-02 902.8 969.3 392.44Sep-02 869.0 880.3 353.04

Oct-02 891.7 1018.0 377.77

Nov-02 854.1 960.2 353.83

Dec-02 863.2 1032.6 363.19

Jan-03 946.5 1053.1 383.22

Feb-03 776.4 918.7 342.77

Mar-03 935.6 1270.5 356.41Apr-03 990.2 1068.0 306.85

May-03 1049.6 969.8 336.42

Jun-03 1264.4 1152.6 363.50


2/89

Dec-04 1130.0 1673.7 336.38

Jan-05 1148.2 1610.3 321.38

Feb-05 1166.1 1783.0 339.29

Mar-05 1346.8 2135.2 443.70Apr-05 1297.9 1902.6 401.00

May-05 1378.2 2019.8 358.30

Jun-05 1532.2 2229.6 358.98

Jul-05 1269.3 1996.3 313.14

Aug-05 1400.7 2233.8 348.41

Sep-05 1483.3 2321.8 341.10

Oct-05 1325.0 2325.3 372.50

Nov-05 1113.5 2299.0 308.81

Dec-05 1455.3 2474.7 371.24

Jan-06 1224.7 2144.3 391.32

Feb-06 1228.9 2210.4 358.13

Mar-06 1512.9 2681.9 423.56

Apr-06 1443.2 2258.6 401.47

May-06 1484.1 2648.5 506.57

Jun-06 1510.1 2986.4 463.87Jul-06 1342.0 2459.9 377.01

Aug-06 1498.5 2523.6 434.84

Sep-06 1412.8 2442.3 421.74

Oct-06 1262.6 2131.1 410.61

Nov-06 1374.9 2773.6 448.61

Dec-06 1516.6 2564.2 475.21

Jan-07 1175.6 2329.9 391.33Feb-07 1271.9 2572.3 457.18

Mar-07 1523.1 2622.6 520.24

Apr-07 1469.3 2573.5 513.35


3/89

Nov-08 1527.1 2716.9 620.52

Dec-08 1256.5 2125.4 673.50

Jan-09 1346.0 2528.4 637.30

Feb-09 1249.6 2122.7 641.32Mar-09 1311.8 2354.7 739.43

Apr-09 1321.5 2798.4 697.52

May-09 1462.7 2561.4 720.68

Jun-09 1522.0 3339.3 735.17

Jul-09 1467.6 2639.2 744.85

Aug-09 1462.3 2528.2 780.53

Sep-09 1508.0 2419.3 806.12

Oct-09 1577.2 2971.6 758.29

Nov-09 1518.0 2528.4 742.79

Dec-09 1566.1 2907.6 697.60

Jan-10 1684.8 3320.9 667.90

Feb-10 1518.6 2504.6 589.03

Mar-10 1769.6 3287.0 763.72

Apr-10 1700.8 3015.7 755.77

May-10 1753.6 3363.3 757.86Jun-10 1780.6 3224.2 841.44

Jul-10 1726.2 3238.8 791.18

Aug-10 1738.4 3010.0 933.06

Sep-10 1593.0 2780.6 922.06

Oct-10 1938.1 3193.3 855.11

Nov-10 1776.7 3125.0 926.89

Dec-10 2126.6 3751.0 863.13Jan-11

Feb-11

Mar-11


4/89

The behaviour of the series is inclining and the best fitted trend line is linear covering the m

The peak point of the graph is at May 2008 reaching upto 2000m US $.

The behaviour of the series is inclining and the best fitted trend line is quadratic covering th

The peak point of the graph is at Apr 2008 reaching upto 4100m US $.

0.0

500.0

1000.0

1500.0

2000.0

2500.03000.0

3500.0

4000.0

4500.0

Ju

l-01

Ma

r-02

No

v-02

Ju

l-03

Ma

r-04

No

v-04

Ju

l-05

Ma

r-06

No

v-06

Ju

l-07

Ma

r-08

No

v-08

Ju

l-09

Ma

r-10

No

v-10

Import

Import

Linear (Import)

Poly. (Import)

700.00

800.00

900.001000.00

Workers Remittance

Workers Remittance


5/89

S $

S $

ces in million US $


6/89


7/89


8/89

ximum points in the graph.

e maximum points in the graph.


9/89

Q2: Calculate month on month (MoM) and year on year (YoY) growth of the series,

MoM

Exp Imp WR MoM-X MoM-Y MoM-Z

Jul-01 951.9 791.6 84.74

Aug-01 683.9 938.0 96.89 -28.1493 18.4904 14.33797

Sep-01 780.5 774.5 158.42 14.11524 -17.4302 63.50501

Oct-01 800.2 838.3 188.93 2.526632 8.241223 19.25893

Nov-01 760.0 825.3 260.12 -5.02321 -1.55476 37.68062

Dec-01 711.1 707.7 193.22 -6.43617 -14.2429 -25.7189

Jan-02 722.2 854.8 180.80 1.572672 20.7777 -6.42791

Feb-02 699.6 738.1 236.33 -3.13176 -13.6543 30.7135

Mar-02 654.9 886.6 227.17 -6.39901 20.11744 -3.87594

Apr-02 725.8 890.1 238.79 10.82681 0.395277 5.115112

May-02 786.0 1119.3 255.10 8.296869 25.75697 6.830269

Jun-02 846.1 975.3 268.54 7.648602 -12.8638 5.268522

Jul-02 816.7 927.2 307.41 -3.47894 -4.9329 14.47457Aug-02 902.8 969.3 392.44 10.54697 4.534281 27.66013

Sep-02 869.0 880.3 353.04 -3.74623 -9.17609 -10.0398

Oct-02 891.7 1018.0 377.77 2.621034 15.63955 7.004872

Nov-02 854.1 960.2 353.83 -4.22083 -5.67685 -6.33719

Dec-02 863.2 1032.6 363.19 1.067515 7.539198 2.645338

Jan-03 946.5 1053.1 383.22 9.650087 1.983941 5.51502

Feb-03 776.4 918.7 342.77 -17.9737 -12.7654 -10.5553Mar-03 935.6 1270.5 356.41 20.50586 38.30192 3.979345

Apr-03 990.2 1068.0 306.85 5.836828 -15.942 -13.9053

May-03 1049.6 969.8 336.42 5.994016 -9.18879 9.63663


10/89

Nov-04 909.0 1476.9 291.81 -8.8989 1.411228 -12.8405

Dec-04 1130.0 1673.7 336.38 24.31838 13.32386 15.27364

Jan-05 1148.2 1610.3 321.38 1.612737 -3.7886 -4.45924

Feb-05 1166.1 1783.0 339.29 1.558354 10.72637 5.572842Mar-05 1346.8 2135.2 443.70 15.49685 19.75088 30.77308

Apr-05 1297.9 1902.6 401.00 -3.63095 -10.8932 -9.62362

May-05 1378.2 2019.8 358.30 6.186528 6.162415 -10.6484

Jun-05 1532.2 2229.6 358.98 11.17521 10.38732 0.189785

Jul-05 1269.3 1996.3 313.14 -17.1571 -10.4659 -12.7695

Aug-05 1400.7 2233.8 348.41 10.34907 11.89914 11.26333

Sep-05 1483.3 2321.8 341.10 5.896624 3.937526 -2.0981

Oct-05 1325.0 2325.3 372.50 -10.6708 0.152082 9.205512

Nov-05 1113.5 2299.0 308.81 -15.9664 -1.13081 -17.098

Dec-05 1455.3 2474.7 371.24 30.70335 7.641919 20.21631

Jan-06 1224.7 2144.3 391.32 -15.8495 -13.35 5.4089

Feb-06 1228.9 2210.4 358.13 0.348772 3.081954 -8.48155

Mar-06 1512.9 2681.9 423.56 23.10472 21.33007 18.2699

Apr-06 1443.2 2258.6 401.47 -4.6042 -15.782 -5.21532

May-06 1484.1 2648.5 506.57 2.833677 17.2598 26.17879Jun-06 1510.1 2986.4 463.87 1.748846 12.75941 -8.42924

Jul-06 1342.0 2459.9 377.01 -11.1306 -17.6291 -18.7251

Aug-06 1498.5 2523.6 434.84 11.66438 2.588966 15.33912

Sep-06 1412.8 2442.3 421.74 -5.72226 -3.22129 -3.0126

Oct-06 1262.6 2131.1 410.61 -10.6324 -12.7425 -2.63907

Nov-06 1374.9 2773.6 448.61 8.897373 30.14557 9.254524

Dec-06 1516.6 2564.2 475.21 10.30473 -7.54965 5.929426

Jan-07 1175.6 2329.9 391.33 -22.4865 -9.13438 -17.6511

Feb-07 1271.9 2572.3 457.18 8.194537 10.40112 16.82723

Mar-07 1523.1 2622.6 520.24 19.7515 1.955827 13.79325


11/89

Oct-08 1475.2 3460.3 466.13 -16.7543 -9.08606 -29.4117

Nov-08 1527.1 2716.9 620.52 3.517732 -21.4831 33.12166

Dec-08 1256.5 2125.4 673.50 -17.7191 -21.7714 8.538

Jan-09 1346.0 2528.4 637.30 7.11823 18.96127 -5.37491Feb-09 1249.6 2122.7 641.32 -7.15989 -16.0447 0.630786

Mar-09 1311.8 2354.7 739.43 4.973494 10.92615 15.29814

Apr-09 1321.5 2798.4 697.52 0.746085 18.84232 -5.66788

May-09 1462.7 2561.4 720.68 10.68121 -8.46739 3.320335

Jun-09 1522.0 3339.3 735.17 4.056153 30.36964 2.010601

Jul-09 1467.6 2639.2 744.85 -3.57671 -20.9654 1.316702

Aug-09 1462.3 2528.2 780.53 -0.35756 -4.20421 4.790226

Sep-09 1508.0 2419.3 806.12 3.123394 -4.30856 3.278542

Oct-09 1577.2 2971.6 758.29 4.589074 22.82653 -5.93336

Nov-09 1518.0 2528.4 742.79 -3.75154 -14.9135 -2.04407

Dec-09 1566.1 2907.6 697.60 3.166538 14.99602 -6.08382

Jan-10 1684.8 3320.9 667.90 7.579602 14.21592 -4.25745

Feb-10 1518.6 2504.6 589.03 -9.8677 -24.581 -11.8086

Mar-10 1769.6 3287.0 763.72 16.52875 31.23914 29.65699

Apr-10 1700.8 3015.7 755.77 -3.88793 -8.25448 -1.04086May-10 1753.6 3363.3 757.86 3.104861 11.52822 0.276929

Jun-10 1780.6 3224.2 841.44 1.541624 -4.13537 11.02812

Jul-10 1726.2 3238.8 791.18 -3.05518 0.451735 -5.97321

Aug-10 1738.4 3010.0 933.06 0.707575 -7.06335 17.93271

Sep-10 1593.0 2780.6 922.06 -8.36328 -7.62257 -1.17892

Oct-10 1938.1 3193.3 855.11 21.65964 14.84357 -7.26092

Nov-10 1776.7 3125.0 926.89 -8.32784 -2.1394 8.394242

Dec-10 2126.6 3751.0 863.13 19.69413 20.03092 -6.87892


12/89

Point: 54

Value: 30.70

Lowest position:

Point: 35Value: -29.6

The series exhibits fluctuating behaviour

Highest position:

Point: 12Value: 49.44

Lowest position:

Point: 81

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

YoY-X

YoY-X


13/89

draw graph and explain behavior of series

MoM YoY

YoY-X YoY-Y YoY-Z

-14.204 17.13041 262.768532.00264 3.334477 305.0366

11.34141 13.66433 122.8507

11.44392 21.43333 99.95236

12.38542 16.34869 36.02568

21.39857 45.90099 87.96708

31.05261 23.19789 111.958

10.97298 24.46616 45.03872

42.87129 43.309 56.89131

36.43851 19.98835 28.50203

33.53724 -13.3544 31.8777


14/89

5.490971 48.94742 15.30346

8.119007 26.43407 -12.7894

4.957564 19.66578 -15.9373

28.67876 56.48793 17.2026731.52949 51.63758 34.58913

18.44283 26.11135 19.59083

29.57478 17.16192 17.0915

22.7139 19.7619 1.118278

7.229497 36.94862 -5.25551

17.93427 51.42282 2.564027

33.22601 68.52933 8.99853

32.80287 59.6658 11.26045

22.50017 55.66351 5.825709

28.79176 47.8587 10.36328

6.65875 33.16459 21.7624

5.388421 23.97106 5.552772

12.33043 25.6059 -4.5391

11.19598 18.71468 0.117207

7.684953 31.12417 41.38152-1.44548 33.94188 29.2189

5.724 23.22584 20.39663

6.984187 12.97326 24.80698

-4.75403 5.192105 23.64116

-4.71308 -8.35134 10.23087

23.48034 20.6409 45.27055

4.209001 3.614779 28.00614

-4.00997 8.65579 0.002555

3.495003 16.37072 27.65755

0.675931 -2.2116 22.82557


15/89

7.043342 2.233132 -19.666

-0.78413 -14.0558 22.73429

-4.82457 -9.51088 40.52915

-8.07725 -28.3545 14.40214-18.758 -41.9681 27.55987

-25.9574 -38.3848 22.78607

-26.2045 -31.7453 18.08163

-23.8493 -34.0241 23.24583

-20.253 -17.012 34.2997

-21.9114 -25.6322 18.75608

-6.50207 -26.9178 31.7795

-14.9043 -36.4366 22.07466

6.913418 -14.1247 62.67779

-0.5943 -6.93928 19.70444

24.63815 36.79928 3.578322

25.17499 31.34238 4.801506

21.52408 17.98794 -8.15341

34.90119 39.5941 3.284864

28.69614 7.765752 8.35101519.88663 31.30755 5.159426

16.98956 -3.4457 14.4553

17.62233 22.71894 6.220044

18.87966 19.05624 19.54185

5.637935 14.93305 14.38247

22.87969 7.463117 12.7682

17.03716 23.59657 24.78493

35.78686 29.00803 23.7285


16/89

Point: 79

Value: 50.25

Lowest position:


The series exhibits fluctuating behaviour The series

Highest position: Highest p

Point: 23 Point: 2Value: 77.76 Value: 305.

Lowest position: Lowest pos

Point: 80 Point: 17

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

YoY-Y

YoY-Y

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350


17/89


18/89


19/89


20/89

Point: 3

Value: 63.51

Lowest position:


exhibits fluctuating behaviour

sition:

3

ition:

YoY-Z

YoY-Z


21/89

Q3: Regress the three series with time trend and identify the trend i.e. it is linear or quadratic.

Exp Imp WR t t^2

Jul-01 951.9 791.6 84.74 1 1

Aug-01 683.9 938.0 96.89 2 4

Sep-01 780.5 774.5 158.42 3 9

Oct-01 800.2 838.3 188.93 4 16

Nov-01 760.0 825.3 260.12 5 25

Dec-01 711.1 707.7 193.22 6 36

Jan-02 722.2 854.8 180.80 7 49

Feb-02 699.6 738.1 236.33 8 64

Mar-02 654.9 886.6 227.17 9 81

Apr-02 725.8 890.1 238.79 10 100

May-02 786.0 1119.3 255.10 11 121

Jun-02 846.1 975.3 268.54 12 144Jul-02 816.7 927.2 307.41 13 169

Aug-02 902.8 969.3 392.44 14 196

Sep-02 869.0 880.3 353.04 15 225

Oct-02 891.7 1018.0 377.77 16 256

Nov-02 854.1 960.2 353.83 17 289

Dec-02 863.2 1032.6 363.19 18 324

Jan-03 946.5 1053.1 383.22 19 361

Feb-03 776.4 918.7 342.77 20 400

Mar-03 935.6 1270.5 356.41 21 441

Apr-03 990.2 1068.0 306.85 22 484

May-03 1049.6 969.8 336.42 23 529

Jun-03 1264.4 1152.6 363.50 24 576

Jul-03 890.2 999.8 307.23 25 625

Aug-03 1038.7 1035.1 280.87 26 676

Sep-03 1038.8 1077.6 318.38 27 729

Oct-03 1006.6 1176.5 328.52 28 784

Nov-03 861.6 991.6 253.08 29 841

Dec-03 1045.1 1323.8 385.71 30 900


22/89

Jan-04 1094.0 1345.7 382.31 31 961

Feb-04 906.2 1139.4 289.49 32 1024

Mar-04 1024.0 1408.1 329.67 33 1089

Apr-04 1095.8 1508.7 335.31 34 1156

May-04 1063.6 1724.0 306.00 35 1225

Jun-04 1248.6 1861.7 355.01 36 1296

Jul-04 1183.8 1457.7 330.51 37 1369

Aug-04 1187.7 1475.2 339.70 38 1444

Sep-04 1113.4 1377.7 312.94 39 1521

Oct-04 997.7 1456.4 334.80 40 1600

Nov-04 909.0 1476.9 291.81 41 1681

Dec-04 1130.0 1673.7 336.38 42 1764

Jan-05 1148.2 1610.3 321.38 43 1849

Feb-05 1166.1 1783.0 339.29 44 1936

Mar-05 1346.8 2135.2 443.70 45 2025

Apr-05 1297.9 1902.6 401.00 46 2116May-05 1378.2 2019.8 358.30 47 2209

Jun-05 1532.2 2229.6 358.98 48 2304

Jul-05 1269.3 1996.3 313.14 49 2401

Aug-05 1400.7 2233.8 348.41 50 2500

Sep-05 1483.3 2321.8 341.10 51 2601

Oct-05 1325.0 2325.3 372.50 52 2704

Nov-05 1113.5 2299.0 308.81 53 2809

Dec-05 1455.3 2474.7 371.24 54 2916

Jan-06 1224.7 2144.3 391.32 55 3025

Feb-06 1228.9 2210.4 358.13 56 3136

Mar-06 1512.9 2681.9 423.56 57 3249

Apr-06 1443.2 2258.6 401.47 58 3364

May-06 1484.1 2648.5 506.57 59 3481

Jun-06 1510.1 2986.4 463.87 60 3600

Jul-06 1342.0 2459.9 377.01 61 3721

Aug-06 1498.5 2523.6 434.84 62 3844

Sep-06 1412.8 2442.3 421.74 63 3969

Oct-06 1262.6 2131.1 410.61 64 4096


23/89

Nov-06 1374.9 2773.6 448.61 65 4225

Dec-06 1516.6 2564.2 475.21 66 4356

Jan-07 1175.6 2329.9 391.33 67 4489

Feb-07 1271.9 2572.3 457.18 68 4624

Mar-07 1523.1 2622.6 520.24 69 4761

Apr-07 1469.3 2573.5 513.35 70 4900

May-07 1584.8 2750.3 537.98 71 5041

Jun-07 1544.1 2796.5 505.55 72 5184

Jul-07 1471.6 2573.8 495.69 73 5329

Aug-07 1464.6 2747.4 489.51 74 5476

Sep-07 1484.5 2734.9 516.05 75 5625

Oct-07 1378.2 3384.7 580.24 76 5776

Nov-07 1539.2 3161.3 505.58 77 5929

Dec-07 1320.2 2348.8 479.26 78 6084

Jan-08 1464.2 3529.1 557.07 79 6241

Feb-08 1538.1 3657.9 502.76 80 6400Mar-08 1771.6 3821.6 602.21 81 6561

Apr-08 1790.8 4099.9 590.71 82 6724

May-08 1920.8 3882.3 584.75 83 6889

Jun-08 1908.6 4023.8 547.41 84 7056

Jul-08 1879.4 3548.9 627.21 85 7225

Aug-08 1564.0 3459.5 592.30 86 7396

Sep-08 1772.1 3806.1 660.35 87 7569

Oct-08 1475.2 3460.3 466.13 88 7744

Nov-08 1527.1 2716.9 620.52 89 7921

Dec-08 1256.5 2125.4 673.50 90 8100

Jan-09 1346.0 2528.4 637.30 91 8281

Feb-09 1249.6 2122.7 641.32 92 8464

Mar-09 1311.8 2354.7 739.43 93 8649

Apr-09 1321.5 2798.4 697.52 94 8836

May-09 1462.7 2561.4 720.68 95 9025

Jun-09 1522.0 3339.3 735.17 96 9216

Jul-09 1467.6 2639.2 744.85 97 9409

Aug-09 1462.3 2528.2 780.53 98 9604


24/89

Sep-09 1508.0 2419.3 806.12 99 9801

Oct-09 1577.2 2971.6 758.29 100 10000

Nov-09 1518.0 2528.4 742.79 101 10201

Dec-09 1566.1 2907.6 697.60 102 10404

Jan-10 1684.8 3320.9 667.90 103 10609

Feb-10 1518.6 2504.6 589.03 104 10816

Mar-10 1769.6 3287.0 763.72 105 11025

Apr-10 1700.8 3015.7 755.77 106 11236

May-10 1753.6 3363.3 757.86 107 11449

Jun-10 1780.6 3224.2 841.44 108 11664

Jul-10 1726.2 3238.8 791.18 109 11881

Aug-10 1738.4 3010.0 933.06 110 12100

Sep-10 1593.0 2780.6 922.06 111 12321

Oct-10 1938.1 3193.3 855.11 112 12544

Nov-10 1776.7 3125.0 926.89 113 12769

Dec-10 2126.6 3751.0 863.13 114 12996Export

Linear Trend

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0.89

R Square 0.79 Y=772.3+9.05t

Adjusted R Squa 0.79

Standard Error 154.54

Observations 114

ANOVA

df SS MS F Significance F

Regression 1 10108922.0 10108922.0 423.3 7.64325E-40

Residual 112 2674999.7 23883.9

Total 113 12783921.6


25/89

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%

Intercept 772.316 29.140 26.503 0.000 714.579 830.054

X Variable 1 9.049 0.440 20.573 0.000 8.178 9.921

Quadratic Trend

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics Y=671.68+14.25t-0.045t^2

Multiple R 0.898827528

R Square 0.8079



Observations 114

ANOVAdf SS MS F Significance F

Regression 2 10328014.25 5164007.125 233.3983761 1.72547E-40

Residual 111 2455907.366 22125.29158

Total 113 12783921.62


Intercept 671.68 42.5380 15.7900 0.0000 587.3831 755.9671

X Variable 1 14.25 1.7076 8.3480 0.0000 10.8710 17.6383

X Variable 2 -0.045 0.0144 -3.1468 0.0021 -0.0738 -0.0168

Conclusion

The trend of this series is linear because in the quadratic trend the value of X variable 2 is very small and negative.

Import

Linear Trend

SUMMARY OUTPUT


26/89


Multiple R 0.89

R Square 0.79

Adjusted R Squa 0.79 Y=720.84+25.06t


Observations 114

ANOVA


Regression 1 77550331.42 77550331.42 416.6875156 1.52792E-39

Residual 112 20844486.08 186111.4829

Total 113 98394817.5


Intercept 720.84 81.34 8.86 0.00 559.66 882.01X Variable 1 25.064 1.23 20.41 0.00 22.63 27.50

Quadratic trend

SUMMARY OUTPUT


Multiple R 0.9058R Square 0.8205


Standard Error 398.8947 Y=337.26+44.9t-0.172t^2

Observations 114

ANOVA


Regression 2 80732832.81 40366416.41 253.6901883 3.98781E-42

Residual 111 17661984.69 159116.9792


27/89

Total 113 98394817.5


Intercept 337.27 114.08 2.96 0.00 111.22 563.31

X Variable 1 44.90 4.58 9.81 0.00 35.83 53.98

X Variable 2 -0.17 0.04 -4.47 0.00 -0.25 -0.10

Conclusion

The trend of this series is linear because in the quadratic trend the value of X variable 1 is very small and negative.

Workers remittances

Linear Trend

SUMMARY OUTPUT


Multiple R 0.93

R Square 0.86

Adjusted R Squa 0.86 Y=154.107+5.4389t


Observations 114

ANOVA


Regression 1 3651906.496 3651906.496 706.2378262 3.48882E-50

Residual 112 579144.1812 5170.930189

Total 113 4231050.678


Intercept 154.1 13.6 11.4 0.0 127.2 181.0

X Variable 1 5.4 0.2 26.6 0.0 5.0 5.8


28/89

Quadratic trend

SUMMARY OUTPUT


Multiple R 0.954

R Square 0.911

Adjusted R Squa 0.909 Y=250.64+0.44t+0.043t^2


Observations 114

ANOVA


Regression 2 3853495.968 1926747.984 566.4583724 5.68208E-59Residual 111 377554.7095 3401.393779

Total 113 4231050.678


Intercept 250.64 16.68 15.03 0.00 217.59 283.69

X Variable 1 0.45 0.67 0.67 0.51 -0.88 1.77

X Variable 2 0.04 0.01 7.70 0.00 0.03 0.05

Conclusion

The trend of this series is Linear because in quadratic trend the calculated value of X variable 1 lies in the acceptance region,

which means that regression coefficient is not significant. This model is not fit for forecasting


29/89


30/89


31/89


32/89


33/89


34/89


35/89


36/89


37/89

Q4: Estimate simple linear regression of combination of three series given to you. Test the sig

apply the goodness of fit test for these combinations and if both tests show significance of re

then forecast the respective dependent variables.

X Y Z

Exp Imp WR

Jul-01 951.9 791.6 84.74

Aug-01 683.9 938.0 96.89

Sep-01 780.5 774.5 158.42

Oct-01 800.2 838.3 188.93

Nov-01 760.0 825.3 260.12

Dec-01 711.1 707.7 193.22

Jan-02 722.2 854.8 180.80

Feb-02 699.6 738.1 236.33

Mar-02 654.9 886.6 227.17

Apr-02 725.8 890.1 238.79

May-02 786.0 1119.3 255.10

Jun-02 846.1 975.3 268.54Jul-02 816.7 927.2 307.41

Aug-02 902.8 969.3 392.44

Sep-02 869.0 880.3 353.04

Oct-02 891.7 1018.0 377.77

Nov-02 854.1 960.2 353.83

Dec-02 863.2 1032.6 363.19

Jan-03 946.5 1053.1 383.22

Feb-03 776.4 918.7 342.77

Mar-03 935.6 1270.5 356.41

Apr-03 990.2 1068.0 306.85


38/89

Oct-04 997.7 1456.4 334.80

Nov-04 909.0 1476.9 291.81

Dec-04 1130.0 1673.7 336.38

Jan-05 1148.2 1610.3 321.38

Feb-05 1166.1 1783.0 339.29

Mar-05 1346.8 2135.2 443.70

Apr-05 1297.9 1902.6 401.00

May-05 1378.2 2019.8 358.30

Jun-05 1532.2 2229.6 358.98

Jul-05 1269.3 1996.3 313.14

Aug-05 1400.7 2233.8 348.41

Sep-05 1483.3 2321.8 341.10Oct-05 1325.0 2325.3 372.50

Nov-05 1113.5 2299.0 308.81

Dec-05 1455.3 2474.7 371.24

Jan-06 1224.7 2144.3 391.32

Feb-06 1228.9 2210.4 358.13

Mar-06 1512.9 2681.9 423.56

Apr-06 1443.2 2258.6 401.47May-06 1484.1 2648.5 506.57

Jun-06 1510.1 2986.4 463.87

Jul-06 1342.0 2459.9 377.01

Aug-06 1498.5 2523.6 434.84

Sep-06 1412.8 2442.3 421.74

Oct-06 1262.6 2131.1 410.61

Nov-06 1374.9 2773.6 448.61

Dec-06 1516.6 2564.2 475.21

Jan-07 1175.6 2329.9 391.33

Feb-07 1271.9 2572.3 457.18


39/89

Sep-08 1772.1 3806.1 660.35

Oct-08 1475.2 3460.3 466.13

Nov-08 1527.1 2716.9 620.52

Dec-08 1256.5 2125.4 673.50

Jan-09 1346.0 2528.4 637.30

Feb-09 1249.6 2122.7 641.32

Mar-09 1311.8 2354.7 739.43

Apr-09 1321.5 2798.4 697.52

May-09 1462.7 2561.4 720.68

Jun-09 1522.0 3339.3 735.17

Jul-09 1467.6 2639.2 744.85

Aug-09 1462.3 2528.2 780.53Sep-09 1508.0 2419.3 806.12

Oct-09 1577.2 2971.6 758.29

Nov-09 1518.0 2528.4 742.79

Dec-09 1566.1 2907.6 697.60

Jan-10 1684.8 3320.9 667.90

Feb-10 1518.6 2504.6 589.03

Mar-10 1769.6 3287.0 763.72Apr-10 1700.8 3015.7 755.77

May-10 1753.6 3363.3 757.86

Jun-10 1780.6 3224.2 841.44

Jul-10 1726.2 3238.8 791.18

Aug-10 1738.4 3010.0 933.06

Sep-10 1593.0 2780.6 922.06

Oct-10 1938.1 3193.3 855.11

Nov-10 1776.7 3125.0 926.89

Dec-10 2126.6 3751.0 863.13


40/89

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%

Intercept 562.80 28.0954 20.0316 0.0000 507.1282

X Variable 0.338 0.0119 28.2741 0.0000 0.3139

Results

Calculated T-Stats= 28.2741 Greater than 2

P-Value 8.24469E-53 smaller than 0.05

Conclusions Significant b0

Coeffecient of determination 0.88 Greater than 0.65

Conclusions Significant Model is fit for forecasting

Forecasting

For X on Y X=562.79+0.338Y Forecasted value

For Y= 3444 X= 562.80+0.338(3444)= 1726.87

For Y= 3053 X= 562.80+0.338(3053)= 1594.71

For Y= 3417 X= 562.80+0.338(3417)= 1717.75

Export on WR

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics X=638.67+1.40Z

Multiple R 0.805887

R Square 0.649454Adjusted R 0.646324

Standard E 200.030310


41/89


Conclusions Significant Model is fit for forecasting

ForecastingFor X on Z X=638.67+1.40Z Forecasted value

For Z= 826.57 X=638.67+1.40(826.57) 1795.87

For Z= 845.28 X=638.67+1.40(845.28) 1822.06

For Z= 1052.88 X=638.67+1.40(1052.88) 2112.7

Import on WR

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics Y= 437.03+3.695Z

Multiple R 0.7662

R Square 0.5871

Adjusted R 0.5834

Standard E 602.3014

Observatio 114

ANOVA


Regression 1 57764917 57764917 159.2342216 3.00811E-23

Residual 112 40629901 362767

Total 113 98394818


Intercept 437.0326 147.8795 2.9553 0.0038 144.0284


42/89

Line fit plot

For X on Y For X on Z For Y on Z

Export on Import Export on WR Import on WR

RESIDUAL OUTPUT RESIDUAL OUTPUT RESIDUAL OUT

Observation Predicted Y Residuals Predicted Y Residuals Predicted Y

1 830.03 121.84 830.03 121.84 750.14

2 879.44 -195.52 879.44 -195.52 795.04

3 824.25 -43.79 824.25 -43.79 1022.39

4 845.79 -45.62 845.79 -45.62 1135.125 841.39 -81.41 841.39 -81.41 1398.16

6 801.71 -90.65 801.71 -90.65 1150.97

7 851.35 -129.10 851.35 -129.10 1105.08

8 811.95 -112.32 811.95 -112.32 1310.26

9 862.08 -207.22 862.08 -207.22 1276.41

10 863.26 -137.50 863.26 -137.50 1319.35

11 940.65 -154.67 940.65 -154.67 1379.6112 892.05 -45.95 892.05 -45.95 1429.27

13 875.80 -59.14 875.80 -59.14 1572.90

14 890.00 12.80 890.00 12.80 1887.08

15 859.97 9.00 859.97 9.00 1741.50

16 906.45 -14.70 906.45 -14.70 1832.87

17 886.94 -32.83 886.94 -32.83 1744.41

18 911.38 -48.15 911.38 -48.15 1779.00

19 918.29 28.23 918.29 28.23 1853.01

20 872.91 -96.51 872.91 -96.51 1703.55

21 991.69 -56.09 991.69 -56.09 1753.95


43/89

39 1027.87 85.51 1027.87 85.51 1593.33

40 1054.43 -56.69 1054.43 -56.69 1674.10

41 1061.37 -152.42 1061.37 -152.42 1515.25

42 1127.80 2.19 1127.80 2.19 1679.94

43 1106.39 41.82 1106.39 41.82 1624.51

44 1164.70 1.41 1164.70 1.41 1690.69

45 1283.58 63.24 1283.58 63.24 2076.48

46 1205.07 92.85 1205.07 92.85 1918.71

47 1244.65 133.57 1244.65 133.57 1760.93

48 1315.47 216.76 1315.47 216.76 1763.44

49 1236.70 32.65 1236.70 32.65 1594.07

50 1316.89 83.83 1316.89 83.83 1724.3951 1346.58 136.73 1346.58 136.73 1697.38

52 1347.77 -22.74 1347.77 -22.74 1813.40

53 1338.89 -225.43 1338.89 -225.43 1578.07

54 1398.20 57.14 1398.20 57.14 1808.74

55 1286.68 -62.00 1286.68 -62.00 1882.94

56 1308.98 -80.04 1308.98 -80.04 1760.30

57 1468.15 44.74 1468.15 44.74 2002.0658 1325.26 117.97 1325.26 117.97 1920.44

59 1456.87 27.26 1456.87 27.26 2308.78

60 1570.94 -60.86 1570.94 -60.86 2151.01

61 1393.22 -51.21 1393.22 -51.21 1830.06

62 1414.72 83.82 1414.72 83.82 2043.74

63 1387.27 25.52 1387.27 25.52 1995.34

64 1282.21 -19.64 1282.21 -19.64 1954.21

65 1499.09 -124.17 1499.09 -124.17 2094.62

66 1428.40 88.19 1428.40 88.19 2192.91

67 1349.33 -173.77 1349.33 -173.77 1882.98


44/89

86 1730.63 -166.60 1730.63 -166.60 2625.55

87 1847.67 -75.53 1847.67 -75.53 2876.99

88 1730.92 -255.70 1730.92 -255.70 2159.36

89 1479.97 47.15 1479.97 47.15 2729.82

90 1280.29 -23.76 1280.29 -23.76 2925.58

91 1416.34 -70.36 1416.34 -70.36 2791.82

92 1279.39 -29.79 1279.39 -29.79 2806.67

93 1357.68 -45.93 1357.68 -45.93 3169.19

94 1507.46 -185.92 1507.46 -185.92 3014.33

95 1427.47 35.22 1427.47 35.22 3099.91

96 1690.07 -168.05 1690.07 -168.05 3153.45

97 1453.73 13.85 1453.73 13.85 3189.2198 1416.28 46.06 1416.28 46.06 3321.05

99 1379.50 128.51 1379.50 128.51 3415.60

100 1565.93 11.29 1565.93 11.29 3238.87

101 1416.33 101.72 1416.33 101.72 3181.60

102 1544.32 21.79 1544.32 21.79 3014.63

103 1683.86 0.96 1683.86 0.96 2904.89

104 1408.29 110.28 1408.29 110.28 2613.47105 1672.41 97.15 1672.41 97.15 3258.93

106 1580.82 119.95 1580.82 119.95 3229.56

107 1698.18 55.39 1698.18 55.39 3237.29

108 1651.23 129.38 1651.23 129.38 3546.11

109 1656.14 70.06 1656.14 70.06 3360.40

110 1578.92 159.50 1578.92 159.50 3884.64

111 1501.46 91.57 1501.46 91.57 3843.99

112 1640.79 297.28 1640.79 297.28 3596.62

113 1617.73 158.95 1617.73 158.95 3861.84

114 1829.05 297.53 1829.05 297.53 3626.25


45/89

nificance of regression coefficients,

ression equation,


46/89


47/89


48/89

Upper 95%

618.4631

0.3612


49/89

Upper 95%

730.0368


50/89

UT

Residuals

41.47

142.95

-247.90

-296.80-572.88

-443.23

-250.29

-572.18

-389.86

-429.29

-260.30-453.95

-645.68

-917.82

-861.18

-814.88

-784.21

-746.40

-799.92

-784.89

-483.43


51/89

-215.66

-217.74

-38.34

-6.24

-14.23

92.32

58.69

-16.12

258.90

466.19

402.21

509.43624.40

511.91

720.95

665.96

261.39

450.12

679.84

338.20

339.70

835.41

629.87

479.88

446.99

176.90

678.93

371.25

446.96


52/89

833.91

929.16

1300.96

-12.89

-800.16

-263.40

-683.93

-814.51

-215.97

-538.50

185.85

-550.01-792.80

-996.29

-267.31

-653.20

-107.07

416.01

-108.88

28.06

-213.89

126.03

-321.87

-121.60

-874.60

-1063.40

-403.29-736.83

124.73


53/89

Q5: Estimate multiple regression of combination of three series given to you. Test the significance of regression coeffecients,

and if they are significant then forecasting the respective dependent variables. Also apply goodness of fit test for these regressio

X Y Z

Exp Imp WR

Jul-01 951.9 791.6 84.74Aug-01 683.9 938.0 96.89

Sep-01 780.5 774.5 158.42

Oct-01 800.2 838.3 188.93

Nov-01 760.0 825.3 260.12

Dec-01 711.1 707.7 193.22

Jan-02 722.2 854.8 180.80

Feb-02 699.6 738.1 236.33

Mar-02 654.9 886.6 227.17

Apr-02 725.8 890.1 238.79

May-02 786.0 1119.3 255.10

Jun-02 846.1 975.3 268.54

Jul-02 816.7 927.2 307.41

Aug-02 902.8 969.3 392.44

Sep-02 869.0 880.3 353.04

Oct-02 891.7 1018.0 377.77

Nov-02 854.1 960.2 353.83

Dec-02 863.2 1032.6 363.19

Jan-03 946.5 1053.1 383.22

Feb-03 776.4 918.7 342.77Mar-03 935.6 1270.5 356.41

Apr-03 990.2 1068.0 306.85

May-03 1049.6 969.8 336.42

Jun-03 1264.4 1152.6 363.50

Jul-03 890.2 999.8 307.23

Aug-03 1038.7 1035.1 280.87

Sep-03 1038.8 1077.6 318.38

Oct-03 1006.6 1176.5 328.52


54/89

Nov-03 861.6 991.6 253.08

Dec-03 1045.1 1323.8 385.71

Jan-04 1094.0 1345.7 382.31

Feb-04 906.2 1139.4 289.49

Mar-04 1024.0 1408.1 329.67

Apr-04 1095.8 1508.7 335.31

May-04 1063.6 1724.0 306.00Jun-04 1248.6 1861.7 355.01

Jul-04 1183.8 1457.7 330.51

Aug-04 1187.7 1475.2 339.70

Sep-04 1113.4 1377.7 312.94

Oct-04 997.7 1456.4 334.80

Nov-04 909.0 1476.9 291.81

Dec-04 1130.0 1673.7 336.38

Jan-05 1148.2 1610.3 321.38

Feb-05 1166.1 1783.0 339.29

Mar-05 1346.8 2135.2 443.70

Apr-05 1297.9 1902.6 401.00

May-05 1378.2 2019.8 358.30

Jun-05 1532.2 2229.6 358.98

Jul-05 1269.3 1996.3 313.14

Aug-05 1400.7 2233.8 348.41

Sep-05 1483.3 2321.8 341.10

Oct-05 1325.0 2325.3 372.50

Nov-05 1113.5 2299.0 308.81

Dec-05 1455.3 2474.7 371.24Jan-06 1224.7 2144.3 391.32

Feb-06 1228.9 2210.4 358.13

Mar-06 1512.9 2681.9 423.56

Apr-06 1443.2 2258.6 401.47

May-06 1484.1 2648.5 506.57

Jun-06 1510.1 2986.4 463.87

Jul-06 1342.0 2459.9 377.01

Aug-06 1498.5 2523.6 434.84


55/89

Sep-06 1412.8 2442.3 421.74

Oct-06 1262.6 2131.1 410.61

Nov-06 1374.9 2773.6 448.61

Dec-06 1516.6 2564.2 475.21

Jan-07 1175.6 2329.9 391.33

Feb-07 1271.9 2572.3 457.18

Mar-07 1523.1 2622.6 520.24Apr-07 1469.3 2573.5 513.35

May-07 1584.8 2750.3 537.98

Jun-07 1544.1 2796.5 505.55

Jul-07 1471.6 2573.8 495.69

Aug-07 1464.6 2747.4 489.51

Sep-07 1484.5 2734.9 516.05

Oct-07 1378.2 3384.7 580.24

Nov-07 1539.2 3161.3 505.58

Dec-07 1320.2 2348.8 479.26

Jan-08 1464.2 3529.1 557.07

Feb-08 1538.1 3657.9 502.76

Mar-08 1771.6 3821.6 602.21

Apr-08 1790.8 4099.9 590.71

May-08 1920.8 3882.3 584.75

Jun-08 1908.6 4023.8 547.41

Jul-08 1879.4 3548.9 627.21

Aug-08 1564.0 3459.5 592.30

Sep-08 1772.1 3806.1 660.35

Oct-08 1475.2 3460.3 466.13Nov-08 1527.1 2716.9 620.52

Dec-08 1256.5 2125.4 673.50

Jan-09 1346.0 2528.4 637.30

Feb-09 1249.6 2122.7 641.32

Mar-09 1311.8 2354.7 739.43

Apr-09 1321.5 2798.4 697.52

May-09 1462.7 2561.4 720.68

Jun-09 1522.0 3339.3 735.17


56/89

Jul-09 1467.6 2639.2 744.85

Aug-09 1462.3 2528.2 780.53

Sep-09 1508.0 2419.3 806.12

Oct-09 1577.2 2971.6 758.29

Nov-09 1518.0 2528.4 742.79

Dec-09 1566.1 2907.6 697.60

Jan-10 1684.8 3320.9 667.90Feb-10 1518.6 2504.6 589.03

Mar-10 1769.6 3287.0 763.72

Apr-10 1700.8 3015.7 755.77

May-10 1753.6 3363.3 757.86

Jun-10 1780.6 3224.2 841.44

Jul-10 1726.2 3238.8 791.18

Aug-10 1738.4 3010.0 933.06

Sep-10 1593.0 2780.6 922.06

Oct-10 1938.1 3193.3 855.11

Nov-10 1776.7 3125.0 926.89

Dec-10 2126.6 3751.0 863.13

Exp=f(Imp,WR)

For X=f(Y,Z)

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics X= 516.95+0.278Y+0.37ZMultiple R 0.946571

R Square 0.895997

Adjusted R Square 0.894123


Observations 114

ANOVA



57/89

Regression 2 11454361 5727180 478.1406 2.79221E-55

Residual 111 1329561 11978

Total 113 12783922


Intercept 516.95 27.90 18.53 0.00 461.67 572.24

X Variable 1 0.28 0.02 16.22 0.00 0.24 0.31X Variable 2 0.37 0.08 4.49 0.00 0.21 0.54

Calculated X Variable 1 16.22133 Greater

T-Stats= X Variable 2 4.48915 than 2

P-Value X Variable 1 0.00000 Smaller

X Variable 2 0.00002 than 0.05

Conclusions X Variable 1 Significant Model fit

X Variable 2 Significant for forecasting


Conclusions Significant fit for forecasting

Imp=g(Exp,WR)

For Y=g(X,Z)

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics Y= -1175.7+0.15X+2.52Z

Multiple R 0.94

R Square 0.88



Observations 114


58/89

ANOVA


Regression 2 86340452.5 43170226.2 397.523643 2.47487E-51

Residual 111 12054365.0 108597.9

Total 113 98394817.5


Intercept -1175.7351 128.1849 -9.1722 0.0000 -1429.7420 -921.7282

X Variable 1 0.1576 0.2706 0.5825 0.5614 -0.3786 0.6938

X Variable 2 2.5252 0.1557 16.2213 0.0000 2.2167 2.8337

Calculated T-Stats=X Variable 1 0.5825 Smaller than

X Variable 2 16.2213 Greater than 2

P-Value X Variable 1 0.5614 Greater than 0.05X Variable 2 0.0000 Smaller than 0.05

Conclusions X Variable 1 Insignificant Model is not fit

X Variable 2 Significant for forecasting

Coeffecient of determination 0.88 Model is fit

Conclusions Significant for forecasting

WR=h(Exp,Imp)For Z=h(X,Y)

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics Z= -109.3+0.41X+0.019Y

Multiple R 0.807

R Square 0.651



59/89


Observations 114

ANOVA


Regression 2 2752391.3 1376195.6 103.3 4.56884E-26

Residual 111 1478659.4 13321.3Total 113 4231050.7


Intercept -109.3182 58.6135 -1.8651 0.0648 -225.4647 6.8284

X Variable 1 0.4134 0.0921 4.4892 0.0000 0.2309 0.5959

X Variable 2 0.0193 0.0332 0.5825 0.5614 -0.0464 0.0851

Calculated T-Stats=X Variable 1 4.4892 Greater than 2

X Variable 2 0.5825 Smaller than 2

P-Value X Variable 1 0.0000 Smaller than 0.05

X Variable 2 0.5614 Greater than 0.05

Conclusions X Variable 1 Significant model is not fit

X Variable 2 Insignificant for forecasting

Coeffecient of determination 0.65 Model is fitConclusions Significant for forecasting


60/89

Forecasting

For X=f(Y,Z)

RESIDUAL OUTPUT

Observation Predicted Y Residuals

1 768.9293063 182.93211792 814.212978 -130.2938457

3 791.5480576 -11.09208653

4 820.6659308 -20.49070578

5 843.4973096 -83.51654647

6 785.891922 -74.82478232

7 822.2322408 -99.98234878

8 8 10.3652928 -110.734517

9 848.315641 -193.4542977

10 853.6108644 -127.8489513

11 923.5248338 -137.5474074

12 888.4174701 -42.32375855

13 889.4654442 -72.80686465

14 932.7810623 -29.98978493

15 893.36438 -24.39373609

16 940.9026185 -49.15595666

17 915.9083549 -61.80077309

18 939.5500721 -76.32476365

19 952.7010855 -6.173784026

20 900.2241437 -123.82302321 1003.294791 -67.68595169

22 9 28.4600722 61.75864705

23 9 12.1191854 137.4533979

24 9 73.0872626 291.3275167

25 909.6021899 -19.43012574

26 9 09.6537288 129.0234672

27 9 35.4225454 103.3940956

28 9 66.7492117 39.83843638


61/89

29 887.193947 -25.55500734

30 1 029.017937 16.12068985

31 1 033.849098 60.13335336

32 941.8999001 -35.68147111

33 1031.668636 -7.69970355

34 1 061.777799 34.04094699

35 1110.851213 -47.2068368536 1 167.437109 81.18523589

37 1045.79854 137.9671936

38 1 054.098342 133.6069459

39 1 016.981713 96.39415062

40 1047.023946 -49.28488366

41 1036.768731 -127.8174513

42 1 108.143251 21.85025194

43 1084.906848 63.3104802

44 1 139.671506 26.43911482

45 1 276.564765 70.25631734

46 1195.91225 102.0064792

47 1 212.695608 165.5192226

48 1271.38349 260.849717

49 1189.35159 79.99444924

50 1 268.621309 132.0902294

51 1 290.402034 192.9041981

52 1303.05697 21.96912952

53 1272.059541 -158.5926541

54 1344.19785 111.140700455 1259.645925 -34.97167633

56 1265.715727 -36.77016183

57 1 421.353911 91.53605009

58 1295.25738 147.9760335

59 1 442.900915 41.22907283

60 1521.149638 -11.06450831

61 1342.228947 -0.225541686

62 1381.46261 117.077238


62/89

63 1 353.951555 58.83788941

64 1263.135512 -0.558945457

65 1456.19182 -81.2791128

66 1 407.758868 108.8348937

67 1311.345396 -135.7802649

68 1403.318548 -131.4212961

69 1 440.770307 82.3457495370 1424.523713 44.7900165

71 1 482.940625 101.8488247

72 1483.740448 60.4033394

73 1 418.066803 53.49152971

74 1464.11088 0.451109146

75 1470.48051 13.98011293

76 1675.344417 -297.1863093

77 1585.355969 -46.16565661

78 1349.285076 -29.06071962

79 1706.935019 -242.6926924

80 1722.626407 -184.5029111

81 1805.184985 -33.56824532

82 1878.417755 -87.60750898

83 1 815.615132 105.1717679

84 1 841.143289 67.42160897

85 1 738.513535 140.8705646

86 1700.638757 -136.6076285

87 1822.493878 -50.35770079

88 1653.981449 -178.754958289 1 504.321315 22.79968491

90 1359.265443 -102.736294

91 1458.055044 -112.083255

92 1346.559676 -96.9579529

93 1447.625798 -135.8752069

94 1555.620443 -234.0830723

95 1498.234408 -35.54087969

96 1720.278382 -198.2557642


63/89

97 1528.885714 -61.30150241

98 1511.244194 -48.90743601

99 1 490.416636 17.59466751

100 1626.449451 -49.23439043

101 1497.258569 20.78668247

102 1586.064675 -19.94994245

103 1690.147397 -5.327396852104 1433.473055 85.09399363

105 1716.322298 53.24485567

106 1637.798273 62.96926372

107 1735.404511 18.16948922

108 1727.732518 52.87500794

109 1713.106987 13.09979446

110 1702.127792 36.2931928

111 1634.134891 -41.10289108

112 1724.205393 213.8716072

113 1731.858324 44.81867608

114 1882.50336 244.0746405


64/89

s.


65/89

Q6: Estimate autoregressive model for each series using Specific to general approach and test its significance and forecast for

Exp Imp

y x z y x z

Jul-01 951.9 0 0 791.6 0 0

Aug-01 683.9 951.9 0.0 938.0 791.6 0.0Sep-01 780.5 683.9 951.9 774.5 938.0 791.6

Oct-01 800.2 780.5 683.9 838.3 774.5 938.0

Nov-01 760.0 800.2 780.5 825.3 838.3 774.5

Dec-01 711.1 760.0 800.2 707.7 825.3 838.3

Jan-02 722.2 711.1 760.0 854.8 707.7 825.3

Feb-02 699.6 722.2 711.1 738.1 854.8 707.7

Mar-02 654.9 699.6 722.2 886.6 738.1 854.8

Apr-02 725.8 654.9 699.6 890.1 886.6 738.1

May-02 786.0 725.8 654.9 1119.3 890.1 886.6

Jun-02 846.1 786.0 725.8 975.3 1119.3 890.1

Jul-02 816.7 846.1 786.0 927.2 975.3 1119.3

Aug-02 902.8 816.7 846.1 969.3 927.2 975.3

Sep-02 869.0 902.8 816.7 880.3 969.3 927.2

Oct-02 891.7 869.0 902.8 1018.0 880.3 969.3

Nov-02 854.1 891.7 869.0 960.2 1018.0 880.3

Dec-02 863.2 854.1 891.7 1032.6 960.2 1018.0

Jan-03 946.5 863.2 854.1 1053.1 1032.6 960.2

Feb-03 776.4 946.5 863.2 918.7 1053.1 1032.6

Mar-03 935.6 776.4 946.5 1270.5 918.7 1053.1Apr-03 990.2 935.6 776.4 1068.0 1270.5 918.7

May-03 1049.6 990.2 935.6 969.8 1068.0 1270.5

Jun-03 1264.4 1049.6 990.2 1152.6 969.8 1068.0

Jul-03 890.2 1264.4 1049.6 999.8 1152.6 969.8

Aug-03 1038.7 890.2 1264.4 1035.1 999.8 1152.6

Sep-03 1038.8 1038.7 890.2 1077.6 1035.1 999.8

Oct-03 1006.6 1038.8 1038.7 1176.5 1077.6 1035.1

Nov-03 861.6 1006.6 1038.8 991.6 1176.5 1077.6


66/89

Dec-03 1045.1 861.6 1006.6 1323.8 991.6 1176.5

Jan-04 1094.0 1045.1 861.6 1345.7 1323.8 991.6

Feb-04 906.2 1094.0 1045.1 1139.4 1345.7 1323.8

Mar-04 1024.0 906.2 1094.0 1408.1 1139.4 1345.7

Apr-04 1095.8 1024.0 906.2 1508.7 1408.1 1139.4

May-04 1063.6 1095.8 1024.0 1724.0 1508.7 1408.1

Jun-04 1248.6 1063.6 1095.8 1861.7 1724.0 1508.7Jul-04 1183.8 1248.6 1063.6 1457.7 1861.7 1724.0

Aug-04 1187.7 1183.8 1248.6 1475.2 1457.7 1861.7

Sep-04 1113.4 1187.7 1183.8 1377.7 1475.2 1457.7

Oct-04 997.7 1113.4 1187.7 1456.4 1377.7 1475.2

Nov-04 909.0 997.7 1113.4 1476.9 1456.4 1377.7

Dec-04 1130.0 909.0 997.7 1673.7 1476.9 1456.4

Jan-05 1148.2 1130.0 909.0 1610.3 1673.7 1476.9

Feb-05 1166.1 1148.2 1130.0 1783.0 1610.3 1673.7

Mar-05 1346.8 1166.1 1148.2 2135.2 1783.0 1610.3Apr-05 1297.9 1346.8 1166.1 1902.6 2135.2 1783.0

May-05 1378.2 1297.9 1346.8 2019.8 1902.6 2135.2

Jun-05 1532.2 1378.2 1297.9 2229.6 2019.8 1902.6

Jul-05 1269.3 1532.2 1378.2 1996.3 2229.6 2019.8

Aug-05 1400.7 1269.3 1532.2 2233.8 1996.3 2229.6

Sep-05 1483.3 1400.7 1269.3 2321.8 2233.8 1996.3

Oct-05 1325.0 1483.3 1400.7 2325.3 2321.8 2233.8

Nov-05 1113.5 1325.0 1483.3 2299.0 2325.3 2321.8

Dec-05 1455.3 1113.5 1325.0 2474.7 2299.0 2325.3

Jan-06 1224.7 1455.3 1113.5 2144.3 2474.7 2299.0Feb-06 1228.9 1224.7 1455.3 2210.4 2144.3 2474.7

Mar-06 1512.9 1228.9 1224.7 2681.9 2210.4 2144.3

Apr-06 1443.2 1512.9 1228.9 2258.6 2681.9 2210.4

May-06 1484.1 1443.2 1512.9 2648.5 2258.6 2681.9

Jun-06 1510.1 1484.1 1443.2 2986.4 2648.5 2258.6

Jul-06 1342.0 1510.1 1484.1 2459.9 2986.4 2648.5

Aug-06 1498.5 1342.0 1510.1 2523.6 2459.9 2986.4

Sep-06 1412.8 1498.5 1342.0 2442.3 2523.6 2459.9


67/89

Oct-06 1262.6 1412.8 1498.5 2131.1 2442.3 2523.6

Nov-06 1374.9 1262.6 1412.8 2773.6 2131.1 2442.3

Dec-06 1516.6 1374.9 1262.6 2564.2 2773.6 2131.1

Jan-07 1175.6 1516.6 1374.9 2329.9 2564.2 2773.6

Feb-07 1271.9 1175.6 1516.6 2572.3 2329.9 2564.2

Mar-07 1523.1 1271.9 1175.6 2622.6 2572.3 2329.9

Apr-07 1469.3 1523.1 1271.9 2573.5 2622.6 2572.3May-07 1584.8 1469.3 1523.1 2750.3 2573.5 2622.6

Jun-07 1544.1 1584.8 1469.3 2796.5 2750.3 2573.5

Jul-07 1471.6 1544.1 1584.8 2573.8 2796.5 2750.3

Aug-07 1464.6 1471.6 1544.1 2747.4 2573.8 2796.5

Sep-07 1484.5 1464.6 1471.6 2734.9 2747.4 2573.8

Oct-07 1378.2 1484.5 1464.6 3384.7 2734.9 2747.4

Nov-07 1539.2 1378.2 1484.5 3161.3 3384.7 2734.9

Dec-07 1320.2 1539.2 1378.2 2348.8 3161.3 3384.7

Jan-08 1464.2 1320.2 1539.2 3529.1 2348.8 3161.3

Feb-08 1538.1 1464.2 1320.2 3657.9 3529.1 2348.8

Mar-08 1771.6 1538.1 1464.2 3821.6 3657.9 3529.1

Apr-08 1790.8 1771.6 1538.1 4099.9 3821.6 3657.9

May-08 1920.8 1790.8 1771.6 3882.3 4099.9 3821.6

Jun-08 1908.6 1920.8 1790.8 4023.8 3882.3 4099.9

Jul-08 1879.4 1908.6 1920.8 3548.9 4023.8 3882.3

Aug-08 1564.0 1879.4 1908.6 3459.5 3548.9 4023.8

Sep-08 1772.1 1564.0 1879.4 3806.1 3459.5 3548.9

Oct-08 1475.2 1772.1 1564.0 3460.3 3806.1 3459.5

Nov-08 1527.1 1475.2 1772.1 2716.9 3460.3 3806.1Dec-08 1256.5 1527.1 1475.2 2125.4 2716.9 3460.3

Jan-09 1346.0 1256.5 1527.1 2528.4 2125.4 2716.9

Feb-09 1249.6 1346.0 1256.5 2122.7 2528.4 2125.4

Mar-09 1311.8 1249.6 1346.0 2354.7 2122.7 2528.4

Apr-09 1321.5 1311.8 1249.6 2798.4 2354.7 2122.7

May-09 1462.7 1321.5 1311.8 2561.4 2798.4 2354.7

Jun-09 1522.0 1462.7 1321.5 3339.3 2561.4 2798.4

Jul-09 1467.6 1522.0 1462.7 2639.2 3339.3 2561.4


68/89

Aug-09 1462.3 1467.6 1522.0 2528.2 2639.2 3339.3

Sep-09 1508.0 1462.3 1467.6 2419.3 2528.2 2639.2

Oct-09 1577.2 1508.0 1462.3 2971.6 2419.3 2528.2

Nov-09 1518.0 1577.2 1508.0 2528.4 2971.6 2419.3

Dec-09 1566.1 1518.0 1577.2 2907.6 2528.4 2971.6

Jan-10 1684.8 1566.1 1518.0 3320.9 2907.6 2528.4

Feb-10 1518.6 1684.8 1566.1 2504.6 3320.9 2907.6Mar-10 1769.6 1518.6 1684.8 3287.0 2504.6 3320.9

Apr-10 1700.8 1769.6 1518.6 3015.7 3287.0 2504.6

May-10 1753.6 1700.8 1769.6 3363.3 3015.7 3287.0

Jun-10 1780.6 1753.6 1700.8 3224.2 3363.3 3015.7

Jul-10 1726.2 1780.6 1753.6 3238.8 3224.2 3363.3

Aug-10 1738.4 1726.2 1780.6 3010.0 3238.8 3224.2

Sep-10 1593.0 1738.4 1726.2 2780.6 3010.0 3238.8

Oct-10 1938.1 1593.0 1738.4 3193.3 2780.6 3010.0

Nov-10 1776.7 1938.1 1593.0 3125.0 3193.3 2780.6

Dec-10 2126.6 1776.7 1938.1 3751.0 3125.0 3193.3

AR(1) Model

Export

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression StatisticsMultiple R 0.877835685 Y=213.10+0.85Yt-1

R Square 0.77059549

Adjusted R Squar 0.768547235


Observations 114

ANOVA


69/89


Regression 1 9851232.338 9851232.338 376.2205667 1.33515E-37

Residual 112 2932689.277 26184.72569

Total 113 12783921.62


Intercept 213.10 57.68 3.69 0.0003 98.81 327.39X Variable 1 0.85 0.04 19.40 0.0000 0.76 0.93

AR (2) Model

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics Y=187.02+0.49Yt-1+0.38Yt-2

Multiple R 0.898

R Square 0.806

Adjusted R Squar 0.803


Observations 114

ANOVA


Regression 2 10305448.5 5152724.273 230.7680489 2.86659E-40

Residual 111 2478473.1 22328.58621

Total 113 12783921.6


Intercept 187.02 53.58 3.49 0.00069 80.85 293.19

X Variable 1 0.49 0.09 5.48 0.00000 0.31 0.67

X Variable 2 0.38 0.09 4.51 0.00002 0.22 0.55

Result

Since the values of both X variable 1 and 2 is very small in AR 2 model, so we accept AR 1 Model for forecasting.


70/89

Forecasting for following periods

Export Import W.Remittance

AR (1) AR (2) AR (1)

Jan-11 2020.7 3472.1 850.3

Feb-11 1930.7 3526.6 838.2

Mar-11 1854.2 3461.2 826.7

Apr-11 1789.2 3441.7 815.7

May-11 1733.9 3407.3 805.3

Jun-11 1686.9 3380.1 795.4


71/89

remaining six months.

AR(1) Model

WR Workers' Remittance

y x z

84.74 0 0 SUMMARY OUTPUT

96.89 84.74 0.0158.42 96.89 84.74 Regression Statistics

188.93 158.42 96.89 Multiple R 0.96 Y=30.37+0.95Yt-1

260.12 188.93 158.42 R Square 0.91

193.22 260.12 188.93 Adjusted R Squ 0.91

180.80 193.22 260.12 Standard Error 56.74

236.33 180.80 193.22 Observations 114

227.17 236.33 180.80

238.79 227.17 236.33

255.10 238.79 227.17 ANOVA

268.54 255.10 238.79 df SS MS

307.41 268.54 255.10 Regression 1 3870474.668 3870474.668

392.44 307.41 268.54 Residual 112 360576.0095 3219.428657

353.04 392.44 307.41 Total 113 4231050.678

377.77 353.04 392.44

353.83 377.77 353.04 Coefficients Standard Error t Stat

363.19 353.83 377.77 Intercept 30.37 13.66 2.22

383.22 363.19 353.83 X Variable 1 0.95 0.03 34.67

342.77 383.22 363.19

356.41 342.77 383.22 AR (2) Model306.85 356.41 342.77

336.42 306.85 356.41 SUMMARY OUTPUT

363.50 336.42 306.85

307.23 363.50 336.42 Regression Statistics Y=25.47+0.57Yt-1+

280.87 307.23 363.50 Multiple R 0.963

318.38 280.87 307.23 R Square 0.928

328.52 318.38 280.87 Adjusted R Squ 0.927

253.08 328.52 318.38 Standard Error 52.319


72/89

385.71 253.08 328.52 Observations 114

382.31 385.71 253.08

289.49 382.31 385.71 ANOVA

329.67 289.49 382.31 df SS MS

335.31 329.67 289.49 Regression 2 3927212 1963606

306.00 335.31 329.67 Residual 111 303838 2737

355.01 306.00 335.31 Total 113 4231051330.51 355.01 306.00

339.70 330.51 355.01 Coefficients Standard Error t Stat

312.94 339.70 330.51 Intercept 25.47 12.645 2.014

334.80 312.94 339.70 X Variable 1 0.57 0.087 6.524

291.81 334.80 312.94 X Variable 2 0.40 0.087 4.553

336.38 291.81 334.80

321.38 336.38 291.81 Result

339.29 321.38 336.38 Since the values of both X variable 1 and 2 is very small in AR 2 model,

443.70 339.29 321.38

401.00 443.70 339.29

358.30 401.00 443.70

358.98 358.30 401.00

313.14 358.98 358.30

348.41 313.14 358.98

341.10 348.41 313.14

372.50 341.10 348.41

308.81 372.50 341.10

371.24 308.81 372.50

391.32 371.24 308.81358.13 391.32 371.24

423.56 358.13 391.32

401.47 423.56 358.13

506.57 401.47 423.56

463.87 506.57 401.47

377.01 463.87 506.57

434.84 377.01 463.87

421.74 434.84 377.01


73/89

410.61 421.74 434.84

448.61 410.61 421.74

475.21 448.61 410.61

391.33 475.21 448.61

457.18 391.33 475.21

520.24 457.18 391.33

513.35 520.24 457.18537.98 513.35 520.24

505.55 537.98 513.35

495.69 505.55 537.98

489.51 495.69 505.55

516.05 489.51 495.69

580.24 516.05 489.51

505.58 580.24 516.05

479.26 505.58 580.24

557.07 479.26 505.58

502.76 557.07 479.26

602.21 502.76 557.07

590.71 602.21 502.76

584.75 590.71 602.21

547.41 584.75 590.71

627.21 547.41 584.75

592.30 627.21 547.41

660.35 592.30 627.21

466.13 660.35 592.30

620.52 466.13 660.35673.50 620.52 466.13

637.30 673.50 620.52

641.32 637.30 673.50

739.43 641.32 637.30

697.52 739.43 641.32

720.68 697.52 739.43

735.17 720.68 697.52

744.85 735.17 720.68


74/89

780.53 744.85 735.17

806.12 780.53 744.85

758.29 806.12 780.53

742.79 758.29 806.12

697.60 742.79 758.29

667.90 697.60 742.79

589.03 667.90 697.60763.72 589.03 667.90

755.77 763.72 589.03

757.86 755.77 763.72

841.44 757.86 755.77

791.18 841.44 757.86

933.06 791.18 841.44

922.06 933.06 791.18

855.11 922.06 933.06

926.89 855.11 922.06

863.13 926.89 855.11

AR(1) Model

Import

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression StatisticsMultiple R 0.936 Y=188.5+0.9Yt-1

R Square 0.877



Observations 114

ANOVA


75/89


Regression 1 86278300.56 86278300.56 797.5204184 9.26991E-53

Residual 112 12116516.94 108183.187

Total 113 98394817.5


Intercept 188.5 76.4 2.5 0.0151 37.2X Variable 1 0.9 0.0 28.2 0.0000 0.9

AR (2) Model

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics Y=165.23+0.59Yt-1+0.35Yt-2

Multiple R 0.944

R Square 0.892



Observations 114

ANOVA


Regression 2 87768852 43884425.9 458.422 2.25677E-54

Residual 111 10625966 95729.4

Total 113 98394818


Intercept 165.23 72.08 2.29 0.024 22.40

X Variable 1 0.59 0.09 6.54 0.000 0.41

X Variable 2 0.35 0.09 3.95 0.000 0.17

Result

Since the value of X variable 1 is very small in AR 1 model, so we accept AR 2 model for forecasting


76/89


77/89

F Significance F

1202.224084 1.01408E-61

P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%

0.03 3.30 57.45

0.00 0.90 1.00

0.40Yt-2


78/89

F Significance F

717.3557196 3.30216E-64

P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%

0.046 0.414 50.528

0.000 0.397 0.743

0.000 0.225 0.572

so we accept AR 1 Model for forecasting.


79/89


80/89


81/89

Upper 95%

339.81.0

Upper 95%

308.07

0.77

0.53


82/89

Q7: Calculate 3 months, 5months, 7 months and 12 months moving average of the given series and forecast for the remaini

3 Months Moving Average 5 Months Moving Average

Exp Imp WR Exp Imp WR Exp Imp WR

Jul-01 951.9 791.6 84.74

Aug-01 683.9 938.0 96.89Sep-01 780.5 774.5 158.42 805.4 834.69 113.35

Oct-01 800.2 838.3 188.93 754.9 850.26 148.08

Nov-01 760.0 825.3 260.12 780.2 812.70 202.49 795.3 833.54 157.82

Dec-01 711.1 707.7 193.22 757.1 790.45 214.09 747.1 816.76 179.516

Jan-02 722.2 854.8 180.80 731.1 795.94 211.38 754.8 800.12 196.298

Feb-02 699.6 738.1 236.33 711.0 766.87 203.45 738.6 792.84 211.88

Mar-02 654.9 886.6 227.17 692.2 826.47 214.77 709.6 802.49 219.528

Apr-02 725.8 890.1 238.79 693.4 838.23 234.10 702.7 815.44 215.262

May-02 786.0 1119.3 255.10 722.2 965.31 240.35 717.7 897.76 227.638

Jun-02 846.1 975.3 268.54 785.9 994.90 254.14 742.5 921.87 245.186

Jul-02 816.7 927.2 307.41 816.2 1007.29 277.02 765.9 959.70 259.402

Aug-02 902.8 969.3 392.44 855.2 957.27 322.80 815.5 976.24 292.456

Sep-02 869.0 880.3 353.04 862.8 925.60 350.96 844.1 974.29 315.306

Oct-02 891.7 1018.0 377.77 887.8 955.86 374.42 865.3 954.02 339.84

Nov-02 854.1 960.2 353.83 871.6 952.84 361.55 866.9 951.00 356.898

Dec-02 863.2 1032.6 363.19 869.7 1003.60 364.93 876.2 972.08 368.054

Jan-03 946.5 1053.1 383.22 888.0 1015.30 366.75 884.9 988.84 366.21

Feb-03 776.4 918.7 342.77 862.1 1001.45 363.06 866.4 996.51 364.156

Mar-03 935.6 1270.5 356.41 886.2 1080.75 360.80 875.2 1047.01 359.884Apr-03 990.2 1068.0 306.85 900.7 1085.71 335.34 902.4 1068.56 350.488

May-03 1049.6 969.8 336.42 991.8 1102.77 333.23 939.7 1056.01 345.134

Jun-03 1264.4 1152.6 363.50 1101.4 1063.47 335.59 1003.2 1075.91 341.19

Jul-03 890.2 999.8 307.23 1068.1 1040.73 335.72 1026.0 1092.13 334.082

Aug-03 1038.7 1035.1 280.87 1064.4 1062.49 317.20 1046.6 1045.06 318.974

Sep-03 1038.8 1077.6 318.38 989.2 1037.49 302.16 1056.3 1046.98 321.28

Oct-03 1006.6 1176.5 328.52 1028.0 1096.41 309.26 1047.7 1088.32 319.7

Nov-03 861.6 991.6 253.08 969.0 1081.89 299.99 967.2 1056.11 297.616

Dec 03 1045 1 1323 8 385 71 971 1 1163 95 322 44 998 2 1120 91 313 312


83/89

Dec-03 1045.1 1323.8 385.71 971.1 1163.95 322.44 998.2 1120.91 313.312

Jan-04 1094.0 1345.7 382.31 1000.3 1220.33 340.37 1009.2 1183.02 333.6

Feb-04 906.2 1139.4 289.49 1015.1 1269.61 352.50 982.7 1195.38 327.822

Mar-04 1024.0 1408.1 329.67 1008.1 1297.71 333.82 986.2 1241.69 328.052

Apr-04 1095.8 1508.7 335.31 1008.7 1352.04 318.16 1033.0 1345.11 344.498

May-04 1063.6 1724.0 306.00 1061.1 1546.90 323.66 1036.7 1425.15 328.556

Jun-04 1248.6 1861.7 355.01 1136.0 1698.11 332.11 1067.7 1528.36 323.096Jul-04 1183.8 1457.7 330.51 1165.3 1681.12 330.51 1123.2 1592.02 331.3

Aug-04 1187.7 1475.2 339.70 1206.7 1598.21 341.74 1155.9 1605.45 333.306

Sep-04 1113.4 1377.7 312.94 1161.6 1436.86 327.72 1159.4 1579.25 328.832

Oct-04 997.7 1456.4 334.80 1099.6 1436.42 329.15 1146.2 1525.73 334.592

Nov-04 909.0 1476.9 291.81 1006.7 1436.98 313.18 1078.3 1448.77 321.952

Dec-04 1130.0 1673.7 336.38 1012.2 1535.66 321.00 1067.6 1491.97 323.126

Jan-05 1148.2 1610.3 321.38 1062.4 1586.97 316.52 1059.7 1518.99 319.462

Feb-05 1166.1 1783.0 339.29 1148.1 1689.00 332.35 1070.2 1600.05 324.732

Mar-05 1346.8 2135.2 443.70 1220.4 1842.82 368.12 1140.0 1735.82 346.512

Apr-05 1297.9 1902.6 401.00 1270.3 1940.26 394.66 1217.8 1820.95 368.35May-05 1378.2 2019.8 358.30 1341.0 2019.19 401.00 1267.5 1890.18 372.734

Jun-05 1532.2 2229.6 358.98 1402.8 2050.68 372.76 1344.3 2014.05 380.254

Jul-05 1269.3 1996.3 313.14 1393.3 2081.91 343.47 1364.9 2056.70 375.024

Aug-05 1400.7 2233.8 348.41 1400.8 2153.25 340.18 1375.7 2076.43 355.966

Sep-05 1483.3 2321.8 341.10 1384.5 2183.96 334.22 1412.8 2160.27 343.986

Oct-05 1325.0 2325.3 372.50 1403.0 2293.64 354.00 1402.1 2221.37 346.826

Nov-05 1113.5 2299.0 308.81 1307.3 2315.37 340.80 1318.4 2235.24 336.792

Dec-05 1455.3 2474.7 371.24 1297.9 2366.34 350.85 1355.6 2330.93 348.412

Jan-06 1224.7 2144.3 391.32 1264.5 2306.02 357.12 1320.4 2313.03 356.994

Feb-06 1228.9 2210.4 358.13 1303.0 2276.49 373.56 1269.5 2290.76 360.4

Mar-06 1512.9 2681.9 423.56 1322.2 2345.55 391.00 1307.1 2362.07 370.612

Apr-06 1443.2 2258.6 401.47 1395.0 2383.66 394.39 1373.0 2354.00 389.144

May-06 1484.1 2648.5 506.57 1480.1 2529.68 443.87 1378.8 2388.76 416.21

Jun-06 1510.1 2986.4 463.87 1479.1 2631.18 457.30 1435.9 2557.17 430.72

Jul-06 1342.0 2459.9 377.01 1445.4 2698.28 449.15 1458.5 2607.08 434.496

Aug-06 1498.5 2523.6 434.84 1450.2 2656.66 425.24 1455.6 2575.42 436.752

Sep-06 1412.8 2442.3 421.74 1417.8 2475.30 411.20 1449.5 2612.16 440.806

Oct-06 1262 6 2131 1 410 61 1391 3 2365 69 422 40 1405 2 2508 68 421 614


84/89

Oct-06 1262.6 2131.1 410.61 1391.3 2365.69 422.40 1405.2 2508.68 421.614

Nov-06 1374.9 2773.6 448.61 1350.1 2449.00 426.99 1378.2 2466.11 418.562

Dec-06 1516.6 2564.2 475.21 1384.7 2489.61 444.81 1413.1 2486.96 438.202

Jan-07 1175.6 2329.9 391.33 1355.7 2555.89 438.38 1348.5 2448.22 429.5

Feb-07 1271.9 2572.3 457.18 1321.4 2488.79 441.24 1320.3 2474.21 436.588

Mar-07 1523.1 2622.6 520.24 1323.5 2508.27 456.25 1372.4 2572.50 458.514

Apr-07 1469.3 2573.5 513.35 1421.4 2589.44 496.92 1391.3 2532.48 471.462May-07 1584.8 2750.3 537.98 1525.7 2648.79 523.86 1404.9 2569.72 484.016

Jun-07 1544.1 2796.5 505.55 1532.7 2706.75 518.96 1478.7 2663.02 506.86

Jul-07 1471.6 2573.8 495.69 1533.5 2706.88 513.07 1518.6 2663.34 514.562

Aug-07 1464.6 2747.4 489.51 1493.4 2705.91 496.92 1506.9 2688.30 508.416

Sep-07 1484.5 2734.9 516.05 1473.5 2685.36 500.42 1509.9 2720.58 508.956

Oct-07 1378.2 3384.7 580.24 1442.4 2955.66 528.60 1468.6 2847.46 517.408

Nov-07 1539.2 3161.3 505.58 1467.3 3093.62 533.96 1467.6 2920.42 517.414

Dec-07 1320.2 2348.8 479.26 1412.5 2964.94 521.69 1437.3 2875.42 514.128

Jan-08 1464.2 3529.1 557.07 1441.2 3013.05 513.97 1437.3 3031.75 527.64

Feb-08 1538.1 3657.9 502.76 1440.9 3178.59 513.03 1448.0 3216.36 524.982Mar-08 1771.6 3821.6 602.21 1591.3 3669.52 554.01 1526.7 3303.73 529.376

Apr-08 1790.8 4099.9 590.71 1700.2 3859.79 565.23 1577.0 3491.45 546.402

May-08 1920.8 3882.3 584.75 1827.7 3934.60 592.56 1697.1 3798.16 567.5

Jun-08 1908.6 4023.8 547.41 1873.4 4002.02 574.29 1786.0 3897.11 565.568

Jul-08 1879.4 3548.9 627.21 1902.9 3818.34 586.46 1854.2 3875.30 590.458

Aug-08 1564.0 3459.5 592.30 1784.0 3677.38 588.97 1812.7 3802.87 588.476

Sep-08 1772.1 3806.1 660.35 1738.5 3604.82 626.62 1809.0 3744.13 602.404

Oct-08 1475.2 3460.3 466.13 1603.8 3575.31 572.93 1719.9 3659.72 578.68

Nov-08 1527.1 2716.9 620.52 1591.5 3327.80 582.33 1643.6 3398.34 593.302

Dec-08 1256.5 2125.4 673.50 1419.6 2767.56 586.72 1519.0 3113.65 602.56

Jan-09 1346.0 2528.4 637.30 1376.5 2456.93 643.77 1475.4 2927.45 611.56

Feb-09 1249.6 2122.7 641.32 1284.0 2258.86 650.71 1370.9 2590.77 607.754

Mar-09 1311.8 2354.7 739.43 1302.4 2335.28 672.68 1338.2 2369.64 662.414

Apr-09 1321.5 2798.4 697.52 1294.3 2425.26 692.76 1297.1 2385.93 677.814

May-09 1462.7 2561.4 720.68 1365.3 2571.48 719.21 1338.3 2473.12 687.25

Jun-09 1522.0 3339.3 735.17 1435.4 2899.69 717.79 1373.5 2635.30 706.824

Jul-09 1467.6 2639.2 744.85 1484.1 2846.64 733.57 1417.1 2738.59 727.53

Aug-09 1462 3 2528 2 780 53 1484 0 2835 58 753 52 1447 2 2773 30 735 75


85/89

Aug 09 1462.3 2528.2 780.53 1484.0 2835.58 753.52 1447.2 2773.30 735.75

Sep-09 1508.0 2419.3 806.12 1479.3 2528.92 777.17 1484.5 2697.49 757.47

Oct-09 1577.2 2971.6 758.29 1515.9 2639.71 781.65 1507.4 2779.52 764.992

Nov-09 1518.0 2528.4 742.79 1534.4 2639.76 769.07 1506.6 2617.34 766.516

Dec-09 1566.1 2907.6 697.60 1553.8 2802.50 732.89 1526.3 2671.01 757.066

Jan-10 1684.8 3320.9 667.90 1589.7 2918.95 702.76 1570.8 2829.54 734.54

Feb-10 1518.6 2504.6 589.03 1589.8 2911.01 651.51 1573.0 2846.60 691.1221Mar-10 1769.6 3287.0 763.72 1657.7 3037.49 673.55 1611.4 2909.69 692.208

Apr-10 1700.8 3015.7 755.77 1663.0 2935.75 702.84 1648.0 3007.14 694.804

May-10 1753.6 3363.3 757.86 1741.3 3222.00 759.12 1685.5 3098.29 706.8566

Jun-10 1780.6 3224.2 841.44 1745.0 3201.08 785.02 1704.6 3078.96 741.5648

Jul-10 1726.2 3238.8 791.18 1753.5 3275.45 796.83 1746.1 3225.81 781.9946

Aug-10 1738.4 3010.0 933.06 1748.4 3157.69 855.23 1739.9 3170.41 815.8628

Sep-10 1593.0 2780.6 922.06 1685.9 3009.81 882.10 1718.4 3123.40 849.1208

Oct-10 1938.1 3193.3 855.11 1756.5 2994.65 903.41 1755.3 3089.40 868.5702

Nov-10 1776.7 3125.0 926.89 1769.3 3032.98 901.35 1754.5 3069.55 885.66

Dec-10 2126.6 3751.0 863.13 1947.1 3356.44 881.71 1834.6 3171.99 900.05Jan-11 1189.9 1985.5 432.3 1206.8 2004.6 430.6

Feb-11 1186.1 1982.3 431.3 1182.2 2000.4 427.7

Mar-11 1222.7 2104.9 447.2 1207.4 2038.3 440.8

Apr-11 1260.8 2156.7 459.4 1238.0 2091.2 450.9

May-11 1339.6 2282.3 481.9 1274.0 2177.5 459.5

Jun-11 1388.0 2360.9 483.1 1326.2 2263.5 471.3


86/89

g Six months.

7 Months Moving Average 12 Months Moving Average

Exp Imp WR Exp Imp WR

772.82 818.60 166.16

736.78 810.95 187.82

732.63 803.61 206.43

724.82 820.12 217.91

722.79 860.26 227.36

735.09 881.70 228.56 760.17 861.63 199.09

750.18 913.05 244.88 748.90 872.93 217.64

775.97 929.40 275.11 767.14 875.54 242.27

800.16 949.72 291.78 774.52 884.36 258.49

834.00 968.50 313.30 782.15 899.33 274.23

852.34 978.52 329.73 789.99 910.57 282.04

863.37 966.13 345.17 802.67 937.64 296.20

877.72 977.24 361.56 821.36 954.17 313.07

871.97 976.02 366.61 827.76 969.22 321.94

876.66 1019.05 361.46 851.16 1001.21 332.71893.98 1045.86 354.86 873.19 1016.04 338.38

916.52 1038.98 348.96 895.16 1003.58 345.16

975.14 1066.47 350.34 930.02 1018.35 353.07

978.99 1061.77 342.34 936.15 1024.40 353.06

992.15 1059.21 327.72 947.47 1029.89 343.76

1029.64 1081.91 324.24 961.62 1046.33 340.87

1039.78 1068.48 320.25 971.19 1059.54 336.77

1021.41 1057.57 312.57 971.82 1062.15 328.37

1020.78 1108.13 319.61 986.98 1086.41 330.25


87/89

1020.78 1108.13 319.61 986.98 1086.41 330.25

996.43 1135.71 322.30 999.27 1110.80 330.17

998.72 1155.66 319.77 1010.09 1129.19 325.73

996.62 1208.94 326.74 1017.45 1140.65 323.50

1004.76 1270.52 329.16 1026.25 1177.38 325.87

1012.92 1348.73 325.94 1027.42 1240.22 323.34

1068.20 1473.03 340.50 1026.11 1299.31 322.631088.00 1492.16 332.61 1050.57 1337.48 324.57

1101.39 1510.67 326.53 1062.99 1374.15 329.47

1130.99 1544.71 329.88 1069.21 1399.16 329.02

1127.24 1551.61 330.61 1068.47 1422.48 329.54

1100.54 1547.08 324.40 1072.41 1462.92 332.77

1110.02 1539.90 328.74 1079.48 1492.08 328.66

1095.68 1503.98 323.93 1084.00 1514.14 323.58

1093.16 1550.45 325.19 1105.66 1567.77 327.73

1115.89 1644.73 340.04 1132.56 1628.36 337.24

1142.25 1719.72 352.62 1149.41 1661.19 342.711196.60 1800.21 355.98 1175.62 1685.85 347.07

1285.64 1907.74 365.58 1199.25 1716.51 347.40

1305.55 1953.83 362.26 1206.39 1761.39 345.95

1341.62 2042.91 366.12 1224.14 1824.61 346.68

1386.94 2119.87 366.38 1254.96 1903.28 349.02

1383.82 2147.03 356.20 1282.24 1975.69 352.17

1357.47 2203.67 343.03 1299.28 2044.20 353.58

1368.49 2268.65 344.88 1326.39 2110.95 356.49

1324.55 2256.46 349.50 1332.76 2155.46 362.32

1318.78 2287.06 355.93 1338.00 2191.07 363.89

1334.81 2351.07 366.67 1351.84 2236.63 362.21

1329.08 2342.05 375.29 1363.95 2266.31 362.25

1351.81 2388.21 394.44 1372.78 2318.69 374.60

1408.47 2486.41 416.59 1370.93 2381.76 383.34

1392.28 2484.30 417.42 1376.98 2420.40 388.67

1431.40 2538.49 423.64 1385.14 2444.55 395.87

1457.67 2571.62 432.72 1379.26 2454.59 402.59

1421.91 2492.94 430.87 1374.06 2438.41 405.76


88/89

1412.15 2566.49 437.61 1395.84 2477.95 417.41

1416.79 2554.45 433.13 1400.95 2485.41 426.08

1369.00 2460.67 422.76 1396.86 2500.88 426.08

1358.98 2476.71 434.22 1400.43 2531.03 434.33

1362.49 2490.85 446.42 1401.29 2526.09 442.39

1370.57 2509.58 459.50 1403.46 2552.32 451.711416.60 2598.04 477.70 1411.85 2560.81 454.33

1440.77 2601.32 485.83 1414.69 2544.98 457.80

1434.34 2602.70 488.76 1425.48 2554.47 467.69

1475.63 2662.34 502.79 1422.65 2573.12 472.25

1505.99 2685.56 511.20 1428.62 2597.50 480.11

1485.28 2794.44 519.77 1438.26 2701.97 494.25

1495.27 2878.41 518.66 1451.95 2734.28 498.99

1457.47 2821.06 510.27 1435.58 2716.33 499.33

1446.06 2925.71 517.63 1459.64 2816.26 513.14

1455.57 3080.58 518.64 1481.82 2906.73 516.941499.43 3234.03 534.74 1502.53 3006.64 523.77

1543.20 3429.04 545.40 1529.32 3133.85 530.22

1620.71 3500.12 546.05 1557.32 3228.18 534.12

1673.48 3623.35 552.02 1587.69 3330.46 537.60

1753.36 3794.78 573.16 1621.68 3411.71 548.56

1767.62 3784.83 578.19 1629.97 3471.05 557.13

1801.05 3806.01 600.71 1653.94 3560.32 569.15

1758.71 3754.40 581.27 1662.03 3566.62 559.65

1721.04 3556.84 585.52 1661.02 3529.59 569.22

1626.14 3305.85 598.20 1655.71 3510.98 585.41

1545.77 3092.22 611.04 1645.86 3427.59 592.10

1455.80 2888.49 613.06 1621.82 3299.66 603.64

1419.76 2730.67 634.08 1583.49 3177.42 615.08

1355.39 2586.70 639.39 1544.39 3068.96 623.98

1353.60 2458.28 675.75 1506.21 2958.88 635.31

1352.87 2547.19 692.13 1474.00 2901.84 650.95

1383.02 2620.59 702.32 1439.68 2826.03 660.76

1399.65 2620.56 722.79 1431.21 2748.43 676.44


89/89

1436.56 2662.93 746.33 1409.20 2632.86 688.59

1474.49 2751.06 749.02 1417.70 2592.13 712.94

1502.56 2712.49 755.49 1416.94 2576.42 723.13

1517.33 2761.94 752.19 1442.74 2641.60 725.13

1540.59 2759.31 742.58 1470.98 2707.64 727.68

1547.87 2740.08 720.32 1493.39 2739.46 723.331591.76 2848.47 717.92 1531.54 2817.15 725.35

1619.30 2933.67 710.73 1563.15 2835.26 730.20

1644.49 2989.63 710.67 1587.39 2902.09 733.30

1682.00 3089.04 724.76 1608.93 2892.50 742.16

1704.87 3136.36 738.13 1630.49 2942.46 746.02

1712.53 3091.95 776.01 1653.49 2982.61 758.73

1723.17 3131.38 823.58 1660.58 3012.72 768.39

1747.24 3118.00 836.64 1690.65 3031.20 776.46

1758.09 3133.62 861.09 1712.20 3080.92 791.80

1811.37 3189.00 876.12 1758.91 3151.20 805.601218.7 1992.2 424.2 1276.3 2148.4 448.5

1204.2 1996.2 426.8 1284.9 2166.8 452.2

1214.5 2036.8 437.2 1296.5 2191.8 457.8

1220.4 2073.0 442.8 1306.6 2213.9 463.2

1248.5 2109.2 451.4 1316.7 2237.3 468.4

1291.3 2186.2 461.8 1263.5 2105.3 443.8

Documents

Forecasting Trends