FLOOD MANAGEMENT IN PAKISTAN - Amazon S3s3.amazonaws.com/zanran_storage/...FLOOD MANAGEMENT IN PAKISTAN 1. FLOOD PROBLEMS IN GENERAL PERSPECTIVE: It is recognized world over that floods

. ANNUAL FLOOD REPORT 2006

FEDERAL FLOOD COMMISSION, MINISTRY OF WATER & POWER1

FLOOD MANAGEMENT IN PAKISTAN

1. FLOOD PROBLEMS IN GENERAL PERSPECTIVE:

It is recognized world over that floods are the most destructive of natural hazards and thegreatest cause of large-scale damages to lives and property. Over the years, major floodshave occurred in almost all the South Asian countries, causing huge loss of life and property.Despite the investment of millions, even billions of dollars in efforts to tame the rivers of theregion, the frequency of major flood disasters has actually increased over the past 25 to 30years. There is a growing consensus that the impacts of climate change may well lead to anincrease in both the frequency and the magnitude of floods. Mankind has to live with thefloods and devise measures to better manage them to minimize the losses and harnessbenefits.

1.1 Floods in Pakistan:

During the last fifty-nine years in Pakistan, the total losses ascribable to floods are colossal,while more than 7,200 people lost their lives. Heaviest direct flood damages in Pakistanoccur to infrastructure, agricultural crops, damage to urban and rural property and publicutilities. Historical flood damages up to 2006 in Pakistan are given in Table-1 below:

Table-1

HISTORICAL FLOOD DAMAGES IN PAKISTAN

Year Value of Property Damaged (Rs in Million)Unadjusted Adjusted

Lives Lost VillagesAffected

1950 199.80 11,282.00 2,190 10,0001956 155.50 7,356.00 160 11,6091957 152.50 6,958.00 83 4,4981973 5,137.00 118,684.00 474 9,7191976 5,880.00 80,504.00 425 18,3901978 4,478.00 51,489.00 393 9,1991988 6,879.00 25,630.00 508 1,0001992 34,751.00 69,580.00 1,008 13,2081995 6,125.00 8,698.00 591 6,8522001 450.00 450.00 219 502003 5,175.00 5,175.00 484 4,3762004 15.00 15.00 85 472005 Not Reported 59 1,9312006 Not Reported 541 2,477Total: 69,397.8 385,821.00 7220 93,356

(Note: For the years from 1950 to 2001, the damages are adjusted to 2002 price level.)

In order to discuss the causes of floods in Pakistan and protection from them, it would beappropriate to first glance through the urgency of flood management in the context of SouthAsia and existing Indus Basin River System and Irrigation Network of Pakistan.



1.2 Why Flood Management is Urgent:

Floods continue to be an annual visitor in many countries. Flood events often take the shapeof a disaster. Even experienced administrators and engineers are often caught by surpriseunder the emerging situation in taking decisions concerning necessary emergency measures.Such disasters disrupt people’s lives as well as the economic activities in the affected areas.Floods adversely affect agricultural and industrial production, services, and marketingsystems directly. By damaging and/or destroying physical infrastructure floods also disruptpassage/flow of goods and services to the flood affected communities.

People living in marooned areas become extremely distressed. Unfortunately, these peopleoften do not find adequate and appropriate shelters; quality food and drinking water;adequate and hygienic sanitation; privacy for women, particularly for the lactating mothersand adolescent women etc. Floods often force the students out of academic activities sincetheir learning centers are often used as makeshift flood shelters in affected areas. Thesedisasters not only affect micro- and household-level activities but also have macro-economic/budgetary implications. As resources are required to address the relief andrehabilitation requirements, budgetary reallocation becomes necessary, adversely impactingon development activities from which resources are transferred. Moreover, contribution tonational exchequer may be reduced, as people may be unable to pay their taxes as well asutility services.

Floods also create health hazards for the affected people. Widespread water borne diseasesmay loom large. Paradoxically, although there is excess water, potable water becomes veryshort in supply. The traditional potable water sources suddenly disappear or becomedangerously contaminated. After shelter, the most sought after commodity in a floodsituation is the potable water. Shelters often become congested with people of all ages,exhausted, in ill-health, and suffering from water and vector-borne diseases. Sometimes dueto disruption of communication, doctors are not available in the marooned villages.

In order to provide better services to flood victims during and after floods it is necessary toexamine existing flood management capabilities and identify gaps with a view to developingand introducing a better flood management system. The cultural context of the affectedpeople is an important aspect and should therefore be considered in developing theapproach(s) to flood management.

1.3 Flood Management – Regional Context:

Asian region is richly endowed with natural resources. Arguably the most importantresource is water that plays a major role in the lives and living of millions of peopleinhabiting the region. Over millennia, the rivers have created vast deltas, criss-crossed by alarge number of distributaries of the river systems and enriched with fertile alluvium, thatsupport the lives of a large population. South Asia is greatly influenced by a number ofnatural characteristics: (i) monsoon;(ii) Himalayan range, which is situated in the north; and(iii) the oceans –Indian Ocean which is located in the south and the Arabian Sea. It housesthe wettest part of the globe, Cherapunjee; and it is drained by a number of large riversystems including the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) systems in the eastern part,Narmada and Tapti systems in the northwest, Mahanandi-Godavari-Krishna-Cauveri(MGKC) system in the central part, and Jhelum-Chenab-Ravi-Beas-Sutlej (Indus) system in



the west. These rivers carry ice-melt from the Himalayas and rainfall-runoff and alsosediments in large quantities. These rivers traverse thousands of kilometers through theplains of the region and carry huge volumes of water to the Indian Ocean/Arabian Sea. Thecombined discharge of the GBM systems is the third largest in the world following Amazonand Congo systems, while the discharge of the Indus system is also high, significantlyhigher than that of Nile and Tigris systems. The pattern of weather and the geographicallayout of the region combine to make the floods in the region monotonously regular whichdestroy, dislocate, deprive, and constrain. Flood management, therefore, is an urgent need inthis region. The rivers not only provide freshwater for irrigation, they also provide habitatfor sweet water fish, waterways for transportation, and water for industrial and householduses. In brief, the rivers are essentially the rivers of life for the large proportion of thepopulation of the region.

But the same rivers swell in monsoon and inundate large patches of plains in the delta i.e.,up to two-thirds of Bangladesh at times, parts of India, valleys in Nepal and Pakistan. Theisland state of Sri Lank also faces floods due to swelling of Kelani, Kalu, Gin and Nilwalarivers. The flows of the regional rivers are highly seasonal and influenced by the monsoonrainfall. A major fraction of the total rainfall over the South Asian region occurs during themonsoon, between June and September. The huge rainfall runoff causes swelling of therivers to the brim and floods of varied intensities occur during the season. Floods arecommon in the region. The South Asian countries of Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Pakistan,and Sri Lanka frequently experience floods of varied intensities and coverage. AlthoughMaldives does not experience floods in the same manner as do the rest of the regionalcountries, there is flooding of the low-lying islands due to high waves and storm surges.

1.4 Flood is not only a Hydrological Phenomenon:

Previously floods were studied as a hydrological phenomenon and structural and non-structural measures were adopted to deal with this phenomenon. But now the well-being ofthe people of the flood prone areas, their economic growth, and the social urgency foralleviating poverty prevailing in these flood affected areas are the overriding concerns.Adequate attention needs to be paid to these concerns from both national and regionalperspectives. The regional approach is of particular significance as activities undertaken inone country may affect, positively or negatively, the extent of floods in the other regionalcountries, particularly the downstream ones.

To make full use of the experiences gained from flood management activities in the regionalcountries there is an urgent need for exchange of views and experiences, data andinformation sharing, and working together to develop approaches and methods to addresspertinent flood management issues, nationally and regionally, in an open and trustingatmosphere.

2. INDUS BASIN RIVER SYSTEM OF PAKISTAN:

Five main rivers, namely, the Indus, Jhelum, Chenab, Ravi and Sutlej flow through thecountry’s plains. Supplemented by a number of smaller tributary rivers and streams, theserivers supply water to the entire Indus Basin Irrigation System. The rivers have their originin the higher altitudes and derive their flows mainly from snowmelt and monsoon rains. The



catchment area of Indus is most unique in the sense that it contains seven (7) of the world’shighest-ranking peaks, after Mount Everest. These include K-2 (28,253 ft), Nanga Parbat(26,660 ft), Rakaposhi (25,552 ft) etc. Likewise, barring the polar areas, seven (7) glacierssituated in the Indus catchment are amongst the largest in the world, namely, Siachin,Hispar, Biafo, Batura, Baltoro, Barpu and Hopper.

2.1 The Irrigation Network of Pakistan

The Irrigation System of Pakistan is the largest integrated irrigation network in the world,serving 42 million acres of contiguous cultivated land. The system is fed by the waters ofthe Indus River and its tributaries. The salient features of the Irrigation Network aresummarized in Table-2 below :

Table-2

SALIENT FEATURES OF IRRIGATION NETWORK OF PAKISTAN

Structure No.Major Storage Reservoirs 3Barrages 19Inter-River Link Canals 12Independent Irrigation Canal Commands 45Large Dams (Approx. 3.00 MAF) of 15 meter and above 82

The major storage reservoirs include Tarbela (existing Live Storage Capacity = 6.948 MAFagainst original 9.70 MAF), Chashma (existing Live Storage Capacity = 0.435 MAF againstoriginal 0.70 MAF) on River Indus and Mangla (existing Live Storage Capacity = 4.542MAF against original 5.30 MAF) on River Jhelum. The total length of main canals/distributaries and minors is 64,000 KM. Watercourses comprise another 1,621,000 KM

Diversion of river waters into off taking canals is made through barrages, which are gateddiversion weirs. The main canals in turn deliver water to branch canals, distributaries andminors. The watercourses get their share of water through outlets in the irrigation channels.Distribution of water from a watercourse is effected through a time-schedule called“warabandi” .

Annual water availability is 142 MAF whereas the annual canal withdrawals are 104 MAF.Water availability at farm gate is 106 MAF comprising 62 MAF of surface water and44 MAF of groundwater. Supplemented by an annual groundwater pumpage of some 42MAF, the average depth of water available at the farm gate is 3.07 feet per acre.Approximately 3 million individual farms with an average size of about 12 acres benefitfrom this system. The inter-provincial water allocations are made by Indus River SystemAuthority (IRSA) created in consequence of 1991 Water Accord between the provinces.

2.2 Causes of Floods in Pakistan:

It is generally recognized that complete prevention of floods is a physical impossibility butprotection from flood and their management is feasible and is of vital necessity. By proper



planning, means can be devised to harness the fury of floods to safeguard human life andproperty. Devoid of their destructive power, floods can be harnessed for the welfare of thecommunity by way of conservation and judicious use during lean periods.

The floods in rivers are generally caused by heavy concentrated rainfall in the catchments,during the monsoon season, which is sometimes augmented by snowmelt flows. Monsooncurrents originating in the Bay of Bengal (India) and resultant depressions often result inheavy downpour in the Himalayan foothills additionally affected by the weather systemsfrom the Arabian Sea (Seasonal Low) and from the Mediterranean Sea (Westerly Wave)which occasionally produce destructive floods in one or more of the main rivers of the IndusSystem. However, in some cases exceptionally high floods have occasionally been causedby the formation of temporary natural dams by landslide or glacier movement and theirsubsequent collapse. There are large seasonal variations in almost all the river discharges,which further aggravates the river course and morphology.

The major rivers cause flood losses by inundating areas along their banks, by damagingirrigation and communication facilities across or adjacent to the rivers, and by erosion ofland along the riverbanks. In the upper part of the Indus Basin System, floodwater spillingover the riverbanks generally returns to the river. However, in the lower part of Indus River,which is primarily flowing at a higher elevation than adjoining lands, spills do not return tothe river. This phenomenon largely extends the period of inundation resulting in evengreater damages. Although flood protection by embankments has been provided alongalmost the entire length in the Sindh Province and at many locations in the upper areas, thebund breaches can still occur. Such breaches often cause greater damage than would haveoccurred without the bunds because of their unexpected nature and intensification of landusefollowing the provision of flood protection.

The existing discharge capacity of some of the important structures (Barrages and Rail orRoad Bridges) on the Indus, Chenab and Ravi has been found to be inadequate. Duringexceptionally high floods this results in afflux on the upstream side, which sometimesresults in breaches in the flood embankments. At times, the flood embankments have to bedeliberately breached at pre-selected locations to save the main barrages and other vitalsettlements and installations.

3. FLOOD CONTROL OBJECTIVES & NEED:

Flood management planning in Pakistan is being carried out to essentially achieve thefollowing objectives.

Reduction of flood losses in an economically sound manner; Prioritizing of areas of greater economic hazards; Protecting the cities and vital infrastructural installations; Exploring the possible use of existing flood control facilities; Promoting appropriate land use in flood hazard areas; Minimizing adverse effects on national ecosystem and environment; and Creating flood awareness and adaptability in the riverine areas.



3.1 Relation between Flood Problem and Physiography:

Flood Control planning for Pakistan is a complex problem and calls for greater ingenuityand experience on the part of the planners. The nature of problems varies at differentlocations due to varying physiographic, climatic, demographic and socio-economicconditions. Even the characteristics of catchment areas of various rivers differ from eachother. Flood problems relating to the four Provinces in relevance to physiography aredepicted in Table 3:

Table-3

FLOOD PROBLEMS RELATING TO THE FOUR PROVINCES IN RELEVANCETO THE PHYSIOGRAPHY

PUNJAB SINDH NWFP BALOCHISTAN

- The flood protection bundshave been generallyconstructed either to protectheadworks and otherirrigation structures, or tosafeguard certain towns andvillages;

- Due to general topography ofthe area sloping towards thesouth west, the embankmentsalong headworks andirrigation structures havebeen constructed in such away that breaching sectionsare provided on the rightmarginal bunds to give reliefto water heading up againstthe left marginal bunds andkeep the flow through theBarrages within safe limitsfor the hydraulic structures;

- The above is done to avoidbreaches in the left marginalbunds, which can causewidespread devastation, asmost of the development ison the left side of the river;

- In order to protect areas fromerosion, spurs have beenconstructed. These spurshave protected the areas andin some cases even theeroded lands have beenrecovered.

- The Indus River flows on aridge in Sindh Province, andsurrounding areas aregenerally lower than the riverbed hence, water once spillingover the bunds does not returnback;

- Escaped water thus causesgreater damage to widespreadareas, and it persists for alonger period even after theflood peaks are over;

- Sindh is situated on a receivingend of drainage of all therivers and if flood protectionmeasures adopted in the upperreaches are not properlyplanned, severe damages arelikely to occur in the Province;

- To minimize sucheventualities, double line offlood embankments has beenconstructed along almost boththe banks from Guddu to fewkilometers short of sea;

- The embankments have beenfurther compartmentalized tocontain widespreadinundation;

- The embankments are oftenthreatened by active erosion bythe river flows andembankments due to poor soilsin some reaches.

- In NWFP, thefloods are mainlydue to flashy hilltorrents havingsteep bed slopes,which greatlyincrease floodvelocity andseverely erodethe banks;

- Mostly spurshave beenconstructed tosave the areasfrom erosion;

- In D.I.Khan ,a battery of spurshas beenconstructed onthe Right Bankof Indus River toprotect fromerosive action;

- Large numberof spurs and afewembankmentshave also beenconstructed inSwat, Kurrumand Kabul riversand theirtributaries for theabove purpose.

- Due topeculiarphysiographicand climaticcharacteristicsin Balochistan,mostlyembankmentsand flood wallshave beenconstructed toprotectorchards orabadies fromflood damages;

- Some bundshave also beenconstructed toserve as flooddiversion/abatement measures.



4. ESTABLISHMENT OF FEDERAL FLOOD COMMISSION

4.1 Historic Perspective

After creation of Pakistan, a Central Engineering Authority was constituted under ChiefEngineering Adviser to deal with the issues of water, power and allied engineering mattersat National level.

It was re-designated as Chief Engineering Advisor’s office after establishment of Water &Development Authority (WAPDA) in 1959.

In 1977 Federal Flood Commission was established for the purpose of integrated floodmanagement at national level.

In 1982 a Federal Coordination Cell (now re-designated as FID Cell) was established tocoordinate activities of the Provincial Irrigation Departments in particular in the drainagesector

In 1987 Dam Safety Council was established to carry out inspection of existing dams andplans for new dams etc.

4.2 Major Sections of the office of Chief Engineering Adviser/Chairman Federal FloodCommission (CEA/CFFC)

1. Civil Engineering Advisory Cell2. Federal Irrigation & Drainage Cell (FIDC)3. Flood Cell (For Federal Flood Commission)4. Dam Safety Council Secretariat5. PANCID/PANCOLD Secretariat6. Power Engineering Cell7. Management & Administration Cell

4.3 Functions of Engineering Advisory Cell

I. Scrutiny of feasibility reports, PC-Is, Conceptual/Inception/Interim Reports, etc., preparedby WAPDA, Provincial Governments and other agencies.

II. Watch daily operations of major reservoirs (Tarbela, Mangla & Chashma) and inform senioroffices accordingly.

III. Exchange of technical data and general liaison with international organizations, namely,International Commission on Large Dams (ICOLD), International Commission on Irrigationand Drainage (ICID), IIMI, FAO, WMO, UNEP, UNDP, UNESCO etc.

4.4 Federal Irrigation & Drainage Cell (FIDC)

I. Act as Secretariat for Federal Programme Steering Committee for National DrainageProgramme (NDP) headed by Secretary Water & Power.

II. Inter-provincial conflict resolution relating to NDP.III. To evolve National Water Policy.IV. To oversee and monitor NDP.



4.5 Federal Cell (For Federal Flood Commission)

I. To implement the functions of Federal Flood Commission (FFC).II. To run Flood Communication Cell during Flood Season for effective dissemination of river

flows and weather related information to President’s and Prime Minister’s Secretariatbesides Ministry of Water & Power.

III. To implement structural and non-structural flood control measures under differentprogrammes as envisaged in the National Flood Protection Plan (NFPP).

IV. To monitor the implementation of flood protection works under different programmes asenvisaged in NFPP.

4.6 Functions of Dam Safety Council

I. To carry out periodic inspections of dams and advise WAPDA regarding repairs andmaintenance of dams and reservoirs.

II. To review the plans of new dams and monitor the implementation of such projects.III. To review the plans and specifications for enlargement, modifications, major repairs, revival

or otherwise of dams/reservoirs.IV. To supply technical data and general liaison with World Bank and U.N. Organizations.V. To keep close liaison with International Commission on Large Dams (ICOLD).

4.7 PANCID/PANCOLD Secretariat

I. Exchange of technical data and general liaison with international Organizations, namelyInternational Commission on Large Dams (ICOLD) and International Commission onIrrigation and Drainage (ICID).

II. To arrange seminars, symposiums and workshops in collaboration with ICOLD/ICID.III. To act as the Secretariat of Pakistan National Committee on ICOLD and ICID.

4.8 Functions of Power Cell

I. To scrutinize power projects prepared by WAPDA and KESC and render expert advice tothe Ministry.

II. To monitor and evaluate performance of WAPDA and KESC and suggest improvements inoperational procedures.

III. To coordinate hydel power development activities between GTZ, federal and provincialgovernments.

IV. Exchange and technical data and general liaison with international and national bodies onPower Engineering, namely, World Engineering Council (WEC), Energy Working groups ofAsia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC), etc.

4.9 Management & Administration Cell

I. Administration coordination of trainings (both local as well as foreign).II. General service management.III. Annual budgeting of office and development projects, utilization, control and audit.IV. Maintenance of project accounts, processing of consultancy services bills, internal

inspection of accounts and financial monitoring of development projects.



5. FFC AND INTEGRATED FLOOD CONTROL PLANNING:

After creation of Pakistan, a Central Engineering Authority was constituted to deal with vastwater, power and allied engineering matters at the National level. It was also an executivebody for the execution of several projects. After creation of WAPDA in 1959 reorganizationwas done with a reduced organization at the federal level. The Central EngineeringAuthority was re-designated as Chief Engineering Adviser’s Office with a redefined role.

Up to the end of 1976, the Provincial Governments were responsible for the planning andexecution of flood protection works. Disastrous floods of 1973 and 1976 resulted in heavylosses indicating that existing flood protection facilities and planning were inadequate toprovide effective protective measures for the country. Heavy losses sustained to theeconomy were discussed at an Inter-Provincial Conference in 1977. In January 1977 it wasdecided to establish Federal Flood Commission to undertake broadly the followingfunctions:

Functions of Federal Flood Commission:

a) Preparation of National Flood Protection Plan*;b) Approval of flood control schemes prepared by Provincial Governments and

concerned federal agencies;c) Review of flood damages to public sector infrastructure and review of plans for

restoration and reconstruction works;d) Measures for improvements in Flood Forecasting and Warning System;e) Standardization of designs and specifications for Flood Protection Works;f) Evaluation and monitoring relating to progress of implementation of the National

Flood Protection Plan*(NFPPs);g) Preparation of a research program for Flood Control and Protection; andh) Recommendations regarding principles of regulation of reservoirs for flood control.

The CEA’s Office acts as Secretariat for the FFC. The provincial governments areundertaking the implementation of the National Flood Protection Plan. The FederalGovernment, however, provides the resources for meeting the capital costs of the project.

Flood management plans formulated and executed by the respective Provincial IrrigationDepartments and Federal Agencies had a number of shortcomings. Apart from technicalshortcomings, the availability of adequate financial resources had been a major constraint inthe proper flood management planning. Provision of funds for flood works in the annualADP of the provinces was always grossly insufficient. Establishment of Federal FloodCommission greatly helped in integrating the planning measures at the national level andfurnishing financial resources for the flood projects. Federal funding through Federal FloodCommission proved a vehicle for quick execution of flood management projects. Though,the Federal funding has provided impetus for flood management planning in Pakistan, theavailable financial resources have been gradually declining in terms of actual funding aswell as in the real terms due to inflation.

5.1 Studies Undertaken at the National Level & Projects Executed:

Major studies for flood protection at the national level that have been completed since 1977and the one in progress and at inception stage are given below in Table-4:



Table-4

MAJOR STUDIES ON FLOOD PROTECTION

Name of Study /Plan Period of completion Investment Cost(Rs in million)

National Flood Protection Plan PHASE-I,1978 to 1987 (NFPP-I)*

1987 1,942.000

National Flood Protection Plan PHASE-II,1988 to 1997 (NFPP-II)**

1998 11,568.000

Master Feasibility Studies for Harnessingof Flood Flows of Hill Torrents ofPakistan

1998 24,950.00

National Flood protection Plan/Comprehensive Flood Management Plan1998-2007 (NFPP-III)***

2007 11,703.00

Perspective Five Year Plan For FloodControl, Development and Management(2005-06 to 2009-10)

2009-2010 14,500.00

* Includes Normal Annual Development Program** Includes Normal Annual Development Program and Flood Protection Sector

Project (FPSP-I), Prime Minister’s River Management Program*** Includes Normal Annual Development/Emergent Flood Program

Brief details of Projects executed under NFPP-I & NFPP-II and being executed underNFPP-III are presented as under:

NATIONAL FLOOD PROTECTION PLAN-I (1978-87) – NFPP-I

Normal Annual Development Program Cost actually spent Rs 1,630 million No. of Flood Protection Schemes Completed 350

(In four provinces, AJ&K, FATA and NA)

NATIONAL FLOOD PROTECTION PLAN-II (1988-97) – NFPP-II

Programs under above plan are as under:

1. Normal Annual Development Program

- Cost (Need Based) Rs 2,541 million- No. of Schemes Completed 170- Funding Agency 100% by GOP

2. 1988-Flood/Rain Damages Restoration Project

- Cost Rs 2,300 million- No. of Schemes Completed 2,065- Foreign Funding (ADB) US $ 200 million



3. Flood Protection Sector Project-I (FPSP-I)

- Cost Rs 4,860 million- No. of schemes completed 257- Foreign funding (ADB) US $ 131.07 million

4. 1992-94 Flood/Rain Damages Restoration Project (FDRP)

- Total expenditure incurred Rs 6659.22 million- No. of Contracts Completed 1980- Foreign Funding

(IDA, EU, KFW & ADB) US $ 193 million

NATIONAL FLOOD PROTECTION PLAN – III (1998-2007) – NFPP-III

1. Normal Annual Development Program:

- Cost actually spent (being spent) 3,415 million- No. of Flood Protection Schemes 362

(In four provinces, AJ & K, FATA, ICT and NA)

2. Second Flood Protection Sector Project:

- Cost actually spent (being spent) 4,165 million- No. of Flood Protection Schemes 101

5.2 Flood Forecasting & Warning System

The activities completed under FPSP-I include:

i Procurement and installation of 69 No. HF radio sets for FFC, WAPDA, ProvincialIrrigation Departments (PID) Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) andEmergency Relief Cell (ERC) of the Cabinet Division, Islamabad.

ii. Procurement and installation of a 10 cm Quantitative Precipitation Measurement(QPM) Weather Radar for PMD at Lahore.

iii. Carrying out of a bathymetric survey and flow measurements in the Indus River andits major tributaries( i.e. Sutlej, Ravi, Chenab and Jhelum)

iv. Conducting pre-feasibility studies for five most critical Barrages/Headworks forflood management aimed at flood damage reduction;

v. Mapping of flood prone areas along the Indus River and its major tributaries usingthe Global Positioning System (GPS) techniques and the related development of aDigital Terrain Model (DTM);

vi. Development of initial version ofIndus Basin Flood Forecasting System(FFS),including preparation of Zero Flood Warning Manual, and

vii. Procurement & installation of Meteorburst Telecommunication System forWAPDA(Phase-I).

6. SUMMARY OF FEDERAL INVESTMENT ON FLOOD PROTECTION WORKS:

Given below in Table-5 is the summary of federal investment on Flood Protection works inProvinces since 1977.



Table-5

SUMMARY OF FEDERAL INVESTMENT ON FLOOD PROTECTION WORKS(1977- JUNE 2006)

(Rs in million)Name of Province/Federal Line

AgencyInvestment Percentage of Total

Investment

Punjab 4,456.30 44.31%Sindh 3,576.00 35.56%NWFP 1043.00 10.37%Balochistan 750.00 7.46%FATA 120.00 1.19%Northern Areas (NA) 81.40 0.81%Azad Jammu & Kashmir 29.40 0.29%Total 10,056.1* 100%* GOP Funding

Foreign Funding US $ 578.7

7. NORMAL / EMERGENT FLOOD PROGRAM & SECOND FLOOD PROTECTIONSECTOR PROJECT (FPSP-II):

Normal/Emergent flood program is need based program started in 1978 after establishmentof Federal Flood Commission. Under this program, all the four provinces and federal lineagencies (A J & K, FATA, Northern Areas, ICT) submit their flood related schemes basedon their needs.FPSP-II aims to reduce damages due to flooding in communities settled along Pakistan’smajor and other rivers. Estimatedly, an area of about 80,000 sq.km of flood prone tracts ofagriculturally productive land are to receive the benefits of protection and security againstflood damages. Below are the main objectives of FPSP-II.These objectives are to beachieved through various structural and non-structural measures. The structural measuresinclude construction of river training and protection works in all the four provinces

7.1 Objectives:

The primary objectives of the project are given as under:

i To construct flood protection and river training works in and along the main riversand hill torrents in order to minimize damages caused by floods;

ii To extend and improve weather radar data collection systems, weather and floodforecasting techniques in order to strengthen the capability to timely predict floodhazards and so to increase response time for required actions to mitigate damages;

iii. To strengthen the knowledge base on the processes involved in the constantlychanging behavior of the main rivers in order to be able to find future assessments offlood protection requirements on sound data and results to enhance hydraulic,morphological and environmental research; and

iv To create public awareness for prevention and flood adaptability amongst the massesand enhance beneficiary participation.



7.2 Intended structural interventions:

Province-wise summary of the intended structural interventions as envisaged in the originalProject (FPSP-II) is given in Table-6 below:

Table-6

INTENDED STRUCTURAL INTERVENTIONS

Province Protective Spurs(No)

Floods Bunds(KM)

Hill TorrentsStructures (No)

Punjab 82 100 10Sindh 20 300 12NWFP 38 20 20Balochistan 10 33 25Total 150 453 67

7.3 Intended Non-structural interventions:

These include the following: Procurement and installation of a 10-CM Quantitative Precipitation Measurement(QPM)

weather radar system in River Jhelum (Mangla Dam Catchment) in order to haveexpended radar coverage over the northern parts of upper catchment areas of river Indusand Jhelum.

Procurement of High Resolution Picture Transmission (HRPT) equipment forMeteorological Data Dissemination (MDD) System.

Extension and strengthening of Automatic Gauging & Telemetric System of WAPDAand of the HF-Radio Communication Network.

Bathymetric Survey of Indus River and its major tributaries. Meteorological studies for better quantitative measurement of rainfall. Study on Mangla Dam operation during flood season. Flood Plain Mapping & Zoning studies for flood prone areas.

7.4 Original Project – Summary of Capital Cost:(All figures in Rs million)

Financing Agency L. C.Cost F. E.Cost Totali) Asian Development Bank 2,420 1,580 4,000 (US$ 100 million)ii) OECF (JBIC) of Japan 1,520 480 2,000 (US$ 50 million)iii) Government of Pakistan 1,760 - 1,760iv) Beneficiaries 240 -__ 240

Total: 5,940 2,060 8,000

7.5 Summary of Investment of Capital Cost:

(i) Execution of civil works including technical services: Rs 6,862 million(85.78 %)(ii) Federal Cell including F.F & Warning. System Studies: Rs 296 million (3.70 %)(iii) Procurement and O & M of equipment and vehicles: Rs 361 million (4.51%)(iv) Consultancy Services: Rs 481 million (6.04 %)

Total: 8,000.00



7.6 Project Reformulation – Reformulated FPSP-II:

The Chief Executive of Pakistan set up a High Level Committee under the chairmanship of the thenDeputy Chairman, Planning Commission alongwith Secretary Water & Power, Chairman WAPDAand representatives of IRSA, the four Provinces, Director General Engineers of EngineerDirectorate (GHQ) and Commander Engineers 30 Corps (Gujranwala) are members to analyze andreformulate the Second Flood Protection Sector Project. The main purpose of the Committee was toreformulate the Project to make it more responsive to the national needs and actual ground realitiesin wake of persistent drought like conditions in the Country over the last three years or so. TheCommittee discussed all the components of the Project in a series of meetings and recommendedreformulated FPSP-II at a reduced cost of Rs 4614.387 million which was later on approved by theFederal Cabinet in its meeting held on 31-10-2002. Details of Structural and Non-Structuralmeasures as proposed under Reformulated Second Flood Protection Sector Project are given inTables 7 & 8 respectively.

Table:7

DETAILS OF STRUCTURAL MEASURES EXECUTED

Province No. of SchemesPunjab 33Sindh 23

NWFP 20Balochistan 12Total 88

Table-8

DETAILS OF NON-STRUCTURAL MEASURES UNDERTAKEN

Sr # Name of the Scheme/Projects Cost

1. Up-gradation of 10 CM Weather Radar installed at Lahore. 19.4 Million

2. Up-gradation of 5 CM Weather installed at Sialkot 68.853 Million

3. Procurement and installation of 10 CM Weather Radar at Mangla 237.465 Million

4. Strengthening of Flood Telemetry Network System for floodforecasting management and warning system

97.838 Million (Revised)

5. Strengthening of High Frequency Radio communication System 10.000 Million

(Note) All project components have been completed on December 31, 2006Mangla radar shall be fully operational during coming flood season.

7.7 Social Mobilization Component under FPSP-II:

The NGO was involved in Reformulated Second Flood Protection Sector Project in order to getmaximum community participation at different stages of the project. This includes but not limited to



the contribution of community in planning, implementation, and maintenance of different floodprotection works undertaken by FPSP-II. The concurrent activity includes the capacity building ofcommunities in flood prone areas, lines agencies and local government/administration personnel soas to reduce and minimize negative impacts of different hazards due to certain disaster like flood asmajor one. For this purpose NGO has a vide scope through extensive fieldwork in the riverine areasin general and sub-project areas in particular. Although in the reformulated FPSP-II the cost ofNGO is reduced, but it has a major role in the successful implementation and completion of sub-projects by having strong communication with the local people and implementation authorities. Ithas to highlight the issues and concerns which are raised by community during different phases ofproject implementation.

Under revised signed contract with NGO, it has to provide assistance to PIDAs regarding SocialMobilization Component. Although the main responsibility lies with PIDAs, but NGO has to lookafter the smooth running of Social Mobilization Component throughout Pakistan.

The summary of distribution of Flood Protection Associations(FPAs) formed under FPSP-II isgiven in Table-9 whereas the summary of countrywide trainings under FPSP-II is given inTable-10.

Table-9

DISTRIBUTION OF FLOOD PROTECTION ASSOCIATIONS (FPAs)FORMED UNDER FPSP-II

Male Female TotalProvinceFPAs Members FPAs Members FPAs Members

Punjab 07 80 05 50 12 130Sindh 07 84 04 32 11 116NWFP 18 171 05 42 23 213Balochistan 11 77 00 00 11 077

Total 43 412 14 124 57 536

Table-10

SUMMARY OF COUNTRY WIDE TRAINING ACHIEVEMENTSUNDER FPSP-II

Module 1 Module 2 Module 3Participants Participants Participants

Province

Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female TotalPunjab 131 97 228 148 68 216 134 50 184Sindh 95 50 145 90 31 121 79 42 121NWFP 88 00 88 72 00 72 72 00 72Balochistan 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00Total 314 147 461 310 99 409 285 92 387



7.7.1 Community Participation/Research Studies under NGO Component of FPSP II

Research Studies have been conducted under NGO component of FPSP-II, in whichfieldwork was conducted and first-hand data was collected directly from the respondentswho were mainly flood affectees. The purpose of these studies was to accumulate localknowledge, on community flood preparedness and mitigation during floods, which would behelpful in the policy decision. These studies also include the recommendations based on theresponses and suggestions of the community. The studies conducted in different flood proneareas are mentioned in Table-11:-

Table-11

RESEARCH STUDIES CARRIED OUT UNDER NGO COMPONENT OF FPSP-II

8. FLOOD MANAGEMENT WORKS IN PAKISTAN:

The nature and need of flood protection works vary due to physiographic characteristics andlocal conditions in different parts of Pakistan as discussed earlier under Table-3.

Flood protection embankments have been constructed wherever over bank flooding is themajor problem, while spurs have been constructed to encounter the land erosion where thisphenomenon is predominant.

8.1 Existing Flood Management Works:

The issue of length of embankments and number of Spurs in the four provinces has beendiscussed with CEA/CFFC. The following details have been agreed to by CEA/CFFC forinclusion in the Annual Flood Report 2006. Existing flood management facilities in the fourprovinces of Pakistan are given in Table-12.

Sr. # Title of the Study1. Impact of Riverine Flooding on Housing/Shelter and Livelihood/Income Sources in

Multan/Muzaffargarh districts2. Impact of Riverine Flooding on Food & Nutrition and Health & Healthcare in

Multan/Muzaffargarh districts3. Impact of Riverine Flooding on Housing/Shelter and Livelihood/Income Sources in

Sargodha district4. Impact of Riverine Flooding on Food & Nutrition and Health & Healthcare in Sargodha

district5. Survey Research on Politics of Relief as experienced by people of Badin after 2003

Rainfall/Flood Disaster



Table-12

EXISTING FLOOD PROTECTION FACILITIES IN PAKISTAN

Name of Province Embankments (KM) Spurs (No)Punjab 3,332* 493*Sindh 2,422** 46***NWFP 352* 178*Balochistan 596.709^ 643^Total 6702.709 1360

Source:* Govt. of Punjab letter No. D&F/2006/1875, dated 06.05.2006** Ref: Figure given by Secretary, I & P Deptt, Sindh during Pak Army Pre Flood

Season Coordination Conference held in GHQ dated 27.05.2006*** Ref: Last Years’ Annual Flood Report (i.e. 2004)\* Annual Flood Report 2005** Figures given by Chief Engineer, Mr. Wazir Khan of I & P Department, NWFP.^ I & P Deptt. Balochistan letter No. I & P 80689/1-6/06/4181-53, dated 28.05.2006

8.2 Ongoing Flood Management Works

There are no. of schemes undertaken this year under Normal Annual Development Programand FPSP-II. The details are given in Table-13.

Table-13

ONGOING FLOOD MANAGEMENT WORKS IN PAKISTAN

Name of Provinces Nature of Flood ManagementWorks

Normal AnnualDevelopmentProgram

FPSP-II

No. of Spurs 5 13PunjabNo. of Bunds/Embankments 1 21No. of Spurs 2 -SindhNo. of Bunds/Embankments 2 22No. of Spurs 2 7NWFPNo. of Bunds/Embankments/RW 19 12No. of Spurs 13 -BalochistanNo. of Bunds/Embankments/RW 10 19No. of Spurs 5 -FATARetaining Walls 5 -

Northern Areas Retaining Walls 1 -A J & K No. of Spurs 2 -TOTAL 67 104

9. SCRUTINIZING COMMITTEE (SC):

The SC of FFC was established by the Federal Flood Commission for Inter-ProvincialCoordination and to critically review the flood schemes prior to implementation. SC wasdelegated the powers by ECNEC to approve projects within the framework of Umbrella PC-I. For GOP financed flood schemes the role of SC is to technically examine and recommendthe schemes for consideration at higher forums i.e.; DDWP/CDWP/ECNEC



9.1 Constitution of Scrutinizing Committee:

Following are the members of Scrutinizing Committee.

CHAIRMAN

Chief Engineering Advisor/Chairman Federal Flood Commission Islamabad

MEMBERS

1. Chief Engineer (Floods), Federal Flood Commission, Islamabad2. Member (Water), WAPDA, Lahore3. Chief (Water Resources Section), Planning & Development Division, Islamabad4. Deputy Financial Adviser, Ministry of Water & Power, Islamabad5. Assistant Chief (Water /Development), Ministry of Water and Power, Islamabad6. Secretary, Irrigation & Power Department, Government of the Punjab, Lahore7. Secretary, Irrigation Department, Government of Sindh, Karachi8 Secretary, Irrigation & Power Deportment, Government of NWFP, Peshawar9 Secretary, Irrigation & Power Department, Government of Balochistan, Quetta10. Executive Director (Technical), FATA Development Corporation, Peshawar11. Director, Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD), Lahore.12. Consultants (for Foreign Aided Projects only)

9.2 Selection/Analysis/Scrutiny of Provincial Flood Control Schemes

For individual flood control scheme, following criteria for selection/scrutiny is applied.

i. The scheme will benefit areas where floods have resulted in high economic lossesand/or human suffering;

ii. For schemes with predominantly public goods nature, preference will be given tothose which will benefit areas where the majority of the population belongs to thelow income group;

iii. Resettlement of affected population will not constitute a cost effective and sociallyachievable solution to the flood problem than the contemplated physical measures;

iv. The proposed physical development represents the least cost alternative for thescheme;

v. For schemes involving flood dispersion for secondary rivers, the beneficiaries in thearea are maintaining existing flood dispersion facilities; and

vi. The scheme will not adversely affect areas designated as nature reserves (wildlifesanctuary or other protected areas).

Schemes that meet the above criteria can then be grouped into subprojects, based on riverreaches in the case of major rivers, and based on river basins in the case of secondary rivers.For the final selection of a subprojects following criteria is applied:

i. The subproject forms part of a master plan for the concerned river to be developed inpursuance of country’s long-term strategy for flood protection and rivermanagement;

ii. The permanent and temporary measures proposed under the subproject aretechnically sound and that such measures will effectively mitigate flooding withoutcausing significant adverse effect;



iii. The subproject has an economic internal rate of return (EIRR) of at least 12 percent;and

iv. For schemes under the subproject that have the character of private goods, providinglocalized benefits to distinctly identifiable beneficiaries, the willingness of thebeneficiaries to share in the investment cost and assume responsibility formaintenance has already been ascertained

10. PREPAREDNESS AND ACTIVITIES DURING FLOOD SEASON

Every year flood season starts from July 1st and ends on October, 15th. However, all theflood forecasting & warning related agencies and data collection departments startfunctioning from June 15th every year and continue their rainfall and river flow datacollection and flood forecasting activities up to October 15th. During this period effectiveinteraction and communication between various flood related provincial as well as federaldepartments/agencies is maintained on round-the-clock basis in order to counter anyeventuality due to rain/flood.

10.1 Functions and Responsibilities of Flood Related Government Organizations:

Flood management is a multifunctional process involving different organizations. TheGovernment Organizations which play major role in the flood management are PIDAs/PIDs, WAPDA, Provincial Relief Organizations, Pakistan Army, PCIW, Emergency ReliefCell (ERC) of the Cabinet Division, Federal Flood Commission (FFC) and FloodForecasting Division (FFD), formerly National Flood Forecasting Bureau (NFFB). Properunderstanding of functions of these organizations is a necessary pre-requisite for closecoordination between them. Functions of these organizations are briefly described below:

10.1.1 Provincial Irrigation and Drainage Authority (PIDA)/PIDs:

PIDA plays a front line role in the process of flood management as well as flood mitigation.Major flood related functions include:

i) Flow measurement at specific sites on rivers, canals and nallahs;ii) Planning, design, construction and maintenance of flood protection works;iii) Maintenance of data communication network to provide the river flow data to

FFD, Lahore;iv) Supervision of the Flood Warning Centre (on behalf of Relief Commissioner) to

ensure timely dissemination of the flood forecasts/warnings;v) Director (Floods), PIDA, in his capacity as member FFD maintains close

coordination with Chief Meteorologist FFD for the issuance & dissemination of theflood forecasts/warnings;

vi) Occasional updating of the flood fighting plans and execution of such plans duringflood emergency; and

vii) Implementation of the flood fighting plans for the actions required to be takenbefore, during and after the flood emergency.



10.1.2 WAPDA:

WAPDA is actively involved in the Flood Forecasting process by providing the muchneeded river and rain data from its telemetric gauge sites within the upper catchments ofIndus and Jhelum rivers. The system had been replaced with a new set of equipment usingthe meteoroburst based communication system. WAPDA supports another hydrometric datameasurement and transmission system by the Surface Water Hydrology Project. An overlapof the two systems also exists at a number of sites, most of which are within the ManglaDam catchment.

WAPDA’s telemetric network is directly linked to FFD, Lahore, and is looked after by anofficer of the level of Research Officer whose office is located within the premises of FFD,Lahore. Besides WAPDA’s involvement in providing the hydrometric flood data, it is alsoinvolved in providing the data from such hydraulic structures as Mangla and Tarbela damsand the Chashma barrage.

Coordination between FFD and WAPDA has considerably improved after the 1992-flooddisaster. Daily meetings in the office of General Manager (Planning) are held during floodsand as a result suitable advice is rendered to Tarbela and Mangla Organizations. Suchcoordination is necessary specially when a serious flood situation is feared.

10.1.3 Provincial Relief Organizations:

Ultimate aim of flood warnings is to reduce the potential loss to the life and property of thecommunity living in the flood liable areas. Provincial Relief Organizations are charged withthe responsibility pertaining to disaster preparedness, emergency response, and post disasteractivities pertaining to all disasters including floods. Consequently, under the present set upthe Flood Warning Centre had been placed under the Relief Commissioner, who is theMember, Board of Revenue, and is assigned the functions of Relief Commissioner inaddition to his normal duties. Relief Department primarily functions through control andcoordination of the personnel and resources of other Government Departments generallyorganized as committees like Flood Commission and Flood Warning Centre. Relieffunctions at the district and tehsil level are performed through the Deputy Commissioners,who coordinate with the other departments to execute the flood mitigation functions at thedistrict level.

Flood preparatory actions required to be taken by the Relief Commissioner include:

i) Arranging inspection of the flood protection works by the Irrigation Department andPakistan Army to ensure that all vital flood protection bunds etc are in a satisfactorystate of maintenance;

ii) To establish flood warning centre and the flood centres at the district and tehsillevels;

iii) To ensure that all flood related agencies/departments involved in the process of floodmitigation are fully geared to perform the functions pertaining to their respectiveareas in the process of the flood mitigation; and

iv) To ensure that flood forecasts/warnings are disseminated without loss of time to allconcerned and that they are fully aware of the actions to be taken under eachsituation.



These are some of the major actions required to be taken by the Relief Commissioner beforethe onset of the flood season every year. During the flood emergency however he is tosupervise the flood relief functions carried out by the district administration with the help ofPakistan Army and other Government Departments.

10.1.4 Pakistan Army:

Pakistan Army’s Corps of Engineers under the command and control of Engineer-in-Chief(E-IN-C) is charged with the responsibility to provide the necessary help to the civilauthorities to carry out the rescue and relief operations during and after the floods. It is theresponsibility of the Provincial Governments to provide all the support equipment(boats, lifejackets, vehicles, tents etc) to the Army for such operations.

Pakistan Army’s flood related functions encompass all the three phases of flood operationsfrom the pre-flood to post flood phases including the important flood phase. Pre-flood phaseis the flood preparatory phase during which the adequacy and the serviceability of the floodfighting equipment is ensured. Pre-flood meeting is held at the level of E-IN-C to helpcoordinate the activities of the other organizations/agencies in providing the requiredsupport to the Army. Since Punjab is the most flood prone province, it is the ReliefCommissioner Punjab, who provides the bulk of the flood fighting equipment to the Army.The CC Engineers 4 Corps of the Army which is stationed at Lahore acts as a LiaisonOfficer for the purpose. Pre-flood inspections of the flood protection structures are alsocarried out by the respective commander corps of engineers for their respectiveareas to ensure that the structures (bunds, barrages, spurs etc.) are in satisfactory stateof maintenance. Weaknesses, if any, are brought to the notice of the Relief Commissionerand PIDAs. Availability of sufficient stock of explosives to activate the breaches, whererequired, is ensured.An officer of the 4 corps engineers is placed on duty in the Flood Warning Centre, Lahore,to keep a close watch on the flood situation. All flood forecasts and warnings arecommunicated to the CC Engineers 4 Corps in time to be transmitted to the D.G. Engineersand all other CC Corps of the Engineers. As the flood arrives, units of the Army move out totheir respective areas of responsibility and carry out the relief and rescue operations incoordination with the civil administration. A post flood meeting is held under thechairmanship of E-IN-C to discuss the performance of all the flood related agencies with theview to bring about the necessary improvement in future.

10.1.5 Commissioner for Indus Waters (C.I.W):

Pakistan has a unique flood forecasting problem in the sense that greater part of the floodproducing upper catchments of the Sutlej, Ravi, Jhelum and Chenab rivers lie across theborder in India/held Kashmir. Furthermore a number of control structures like dams andbarrages etc exist over the rivers across the border with the result that the free flowconditions are destroyed making the operation of the rainfall/runoff model extremelydifficult. The situation underlines the need for the acquisition of river flow data from acrossthe border in respect of the important sites over the rivers in India/held Kashmir.Consequently, an agreement has been signed between the two countries through theirrespective Commissioners for Indus Waters, which includes a provision to receive from



India such river flow and rain data as is considered important for flood forecasting inPakistan. A number of river flow stations are specified for this purpose. Normally once aday the data is received by the Pakistan Commissioner for Indus Waters. The data is thenpassed on to the Chief Meteorologist, FFD, Lahore. Frequency of data reception is increasedto six hourly and even to hourly in relation to the prevailing flood situation. PakistanCommission for Indus Waters is thus responsible to provide to the Chief Meteorologist,FFD, Lahore the much needed data from India for use in the flood forecasting models.

Pakistan Commissioner for Indus Waters is the only forum through which any clarificationor further information can be obtained from India with regard to flood data or the floodcontrol structures etc.

10.1.6 Emergency Relief Cell (ERC), Cabinet Division

Emergency Relief Cell (ERC)has been established under the Cabinet Division and iscontrolled by the Cabinet Secretary. The Cell is headed by the Director General Relief. Mainfunctions of the Emergency Relief Cell include:

i) Planning and assessment of relief requirements for major disasters;ii) Stock piling of basic necessities needed during emergency such as dry ration,

blankets etc;iii) Establishing emergency fund upon declaration of any part of the country as calamity

affected;iv) Maintaining contact with UNDP and other international aid giving agencies; andv) Making arrangements of disaster relief assistance from other countries.

ERC maintains two ware-houses for stocking relief goods and the Cell also maintains arelief goods dispatch organization for the dispatch of the relief goods. ERC maintains a fleetof helicopters which are given under the control of Army Aviation base Dhamial and areflown by the Army pilots for the relief missions under the instructions of ERC, located atIslamabad. ERC maintains contact with the Federal Flood Commission (FFC).

10.1.7 Federal Flood Commission (FFC) and Its Role in Flood Management/Mitigation

During the recent past FFC has played a significant role in remodeling the flood mitigationpolicy of the country on modern lines. The policy being implemented by the FFCencompasses both the structural as well as the non-structural measures. Non-structuralmeasures mainly pertain to establishment of a modern flood forecasting and warning systemto provide timely and reliable flood information to the concerned flood mitigation agenciesand the public in general. One big step towards this end is establishment of the 10 cm ‘S’band QPM Doppler Radar at FFD, Lahore to afford the acquisition of the much neededrainfall data from cross the border over rivers Sutlej, Beas, Ravi and Chenab catchmentsthrough the process of remote sensing. The other important step is the establishment ofimproved flood forecasting models. Improvement in the measurement and transmission ofthe hydrometric data based upon the meteoroburst a physically based model accounting forthe hydrodynamical changes in the flood wave. The model calls for the survey of thechannel geometry to determine the channel parameters at suitable intervals of the channellength. It has, therefore, built-in discharge/elevation relationship which should readily yieldthe flood levels at any point along the channels. This is of great advantage in the area offlood warning since it shall allow the estimation of the areas of inundation along the



channel. In turnFlood inundation maps shall be prepared to facilitate the identification of thevillages likely to be inundated as against those considered safe, for a specific level of floodto be determined on the basis of running the Hydrodynamic model.

A number of flood protection works have been executed and some are still in the process ofimplementation by the provinces through financial and technical support provided by FFC.

Flood Monitoring Situation Report on Weather & River Discharges

In the context of flood warning dissemination, Chairman FFC (being also the ChiefEngineering Advisor to the Federal Government) renders suitable reports to the Presidentand the Prime Minister as and when the situation so demands. A Flood Monitoring SituationReport on Weather & River Discharges (Specimen at Annexure-I) is prepared and issuedto important Government officials on daily basis during the flood season every yearcontaining the following:

j) actual river flow position of major rivers in a tabular form;

ii) prevailing weather system situation;

iii) concise forecast relating to the movement of various weather systems and river flowcondition for the next 24 hours including likely inundation /flooding of nallahs etc.

10.1.8 Flood Forecasting Division (FFD), Lahore:

FFD, Lahore, of the Pakistan Meteorological Department plays a pivotal role in the entireflood warning and management process. Hydrometeorological data from the variousnational and international sources is received in this Division which is then processed toproduce flood forecasts and warnings to be disseminated outwards to various nationalorganizations.

Major Responsibilities of FFD, Lahore during and after the Flood Season:

Major responsibilities required to be fulfilled by the Division before, during and after theflood season are summarized as under:

a) Flood Preparatory Measures

i) Ensure serviceability of the meteorological equipment including 10-CM QPM RadarLahore, 5.36 CM QPM Radar Sialkot, 5-CM Weather Surveillance Radars atIslamabad, Karachi, Rahim Yar Khan & D.I.Khan, Teleprinter Network, FAX, APT,RTT and MDD Equipment.

ii) Ensure availability of the following items in sufficient quantity to last for the wholeof the flood season:

Surface and upper air meteorological charts; Isohytal maps; Various forecast forms; Data tabulation sheets; and Stationery etc.



iii) Update the calibration of the radar and flood forecasting models;

iv) Ensure availability of sufficient staff strength to maintain round-the-clock roster ofduties for the meteorological and hydrological work;

iv) Liaison with PTCL’s Coordination Officer to provide 24 hours maintenance servicesfor the teleprinters, internet and the office and residential telephones of all the floodrelated functionaries;

vi) Conduct a familiarization training of the senior cadre and junior cadre Govt.functionaries involved in the process of flood mitigation. Senior cadre training islimited to one day only and includes such functionaries as the Relief Commissioner,Director General (Relief), Chief Engineer, Hydrology WAPDA, Chief EngineerFFC, Chief Engineer Hydrology and Drainage PIDA, Director Flood PIDA; and

vii) Training for the junior cadre extends to a period of one week for the persons fromvarious provincial and federal departments actually posted on flood duties.

b) Flood Categorization and Functions of FFD during the Flood Season

It would be appropriate to discuss the various flood categories before actually takingFFD’s functions during the flood season:

Category-I Floods

This is the situation when the seasonal low, which is a semi permanent weather systemgenerally situated over south eastern Balochistan, south western Punjab and adjoining partsof Sindh gets occasionally intensified (due to the passage of a westerly wave) and thuscauses the moisture from the Arabian Sea to be brought up to the upper catchments ofChenab and Jhelum Rivers resulting in heavy downpour along the windward slopes of themountain ranges. Rainfall is generally short lived and occurs either in the lateafternoon/evening or during the early morning lasting for a max. period of about six(6)hours. Floods under this condition are the Category-I floods, which may cause a short peakranging from 3 to 5 lac cusecs under extreme conditions. This should pose no serious floodmanagement problem for the Mangla reservoir due to short duration & thus less volume.Tarbela is affected to a much lesser degree.

Category-II & III Floods

This meteorological situation is the one linked with a monsoon low/depression. Suchmonsoon systems originate in the Bay of Bengal(India) and then moving across India in ageneral west/north westerly direction arrive over Rajhastan(India) or any of the adjoiningstates of India. After this the monsoon depression may take any one of the following threecourses:

a) Continue moving straight west causing heavy wide-spread rains overSindh/Balochistan. However, no river flooding shall occur in this case;

b) Re-curve in the north east direction towards the upper catchments of Sutlej, Ravi andChenab rivers causing extremely heavy rainfall and consequently the flood first



across the border in India and then (within hours) at the Rim stations in Pakistan.This is Category-II Flood. Under this situation, floods first occur in rivers Chenab,Ravi and Jhelum, followed by river Sutlej. Generally the flood peak at Mangla islimited to below 5 lac cusecs, but may reach 7 lac cusecs under an extremecondition; and

c) Continue moving in the northerly direction (under the effect of a strong westerlywave) over the plains of Lahore/ Gujranwala Divisions to finally end up overRawalpindi/ Hazara Divisions. The upper catchments of rivers Chenab, Jhelum andIndus come under its influence. Extremely heavy rains may occur over Manglaand/or Tarbela catchments under this meteorological situation depending upon thefinal position of the depression. Floods generated due to this situation are extremelyheavy and are taken as Category-III floods. The probable maximum flood (PMF) isan extreme case of Category-III flood. These are most threatening for ManglaReservoir, a typical example of such floods was the 1992 flood. Chief Meteorologist,FFD, Lahore, is personally responsible for the issuance of timely and reliable floodforecasts/warnings to afford pre-flood mitigation measures to reduce damage to thelife and property due to floods. He is required to remain in touch with his office evenoutside the working hours to maintain a close watch on the flood generating weathersituations. In case situation for Category-II or Category-III floods develop he is togive advance verbal briefings to R.C.Punjab, Chairman FFC, D.G. Engineers(Army), D.G. MET and Member (Water) WAPDA. In order to avoid undue publicpanic, flood forecasts to the public should be given, only when the possibility offloods has positively developed, in which case suitably tailored flood forecasts mustbe provided to the press and the electronic media in time.

The argument that the false alarm to the public need be strictly avoided, must not beconstrued to mean that even the reliable flood forecasts, (when the flood situationbecomes imminent) should be denied to the public. The benefit of the improvedflood forecasting system must go to the public by way of more reliable and moreadvanced flood information to them. It is also important that the necessary trust beplaced in the forecasts issued by Chief Meteorologist, FFD, Lahore, and under nocircumstances the forecasts issued by him allowed to be amended without hisconsent. Under a serious pre-flood situation Chief Meteorologist, FFD, Lahore, mayinvite other members of the FFD (which include Director Floods of IrrigationDepartment, Chief Engineer(H&WM) of WAPDA and a representative of PCIW) toan emergency meeting in his office to discuss the necessary flood related actions.Additionally, daily press briefings may be conducted by the R.C. Punjab or theMinister of Revenue & Relief Government of Punjab. In case of Category-III floodsituation a forecast of PMF in respect of Mangla/Tarbela be issued in yes/no termsand Member (Water) WAPDA be personally informed of it by Chief Meteorologist,FFD, Lahore.

11. FLOOD WARNING DISSEMINATION SYSTEM DURING FLOOD SEASON:

11.1 Prevailing Flood Warning Dissemination System:

The earlier weaknesses in the flood warning dissemination system called for the followingremedial actions:-



a) Police communication system(for the reception of flood data and the disseminationof flood forecasts/warnings) be replaced with some advanced automatic datacommunication system. However, until such a system becomes available the policeoperators posted on flood duties be given some training to enable detection of simpledata errors and also to understand the urgency and importance of timely data andflood forecast communications.

b) Dissemination of the flood/warning at least to the important recipients be done by theFlood Forecasting Centre to ensure timely dissemination under the overallsupervision of the Chief Meteorologist, FFD, Lahore.

c) Some mechanism to ensure proper coordination between the variousdepartments/agencies involved in the flood mitigation process be established. Thismay be done by an authority having the full legal jurisdiction over all the concernedagencies.

The problems and the possible remedies were frequently discussed in flood meetings atProvincial and Federal Government levels. As a result of such efforts the earlier floodwarning dissemination system underwent gradual changes as reflected in the systemcurrently in vogue. Salient features of current flood warning dissemination system are asfollows:-

i) Pre-flood familiarization training has been started since the last few years to acquaintthe newly inducted people of Irrigation and WAPDA with the commonly usedhydromet terms.

ii) Flood Forecasting and Warning Centre, Lahore, has been re-designated as the FloodForecasting Division (FFD).

iv) FFD has taken in hand the dissemination of the flood forecasts/warnings toconsiderably large number of recipients directly or indirectly concerned with theflood mitigation process, over and above the dissemination being done by the FWC.

v) Press briefings have been started in the office of Chief Meteorologist FFD as aregular feature to ensure correct and authentic flood and weather information to thepublic. Such briefings are arranged through the representative of the PunjabInformation Department on duty at the FWC, only when the flood situation is or islikely to become serious enough to call for such briefings.

Considerable improvement has been made in the dissemination system since the time that itwas initially started. Most of the discrepancies stated above have been removed. A muchbetter coordination now exists with WAPDA as regular meetings or verbal advice is givenby Chief Meteorologist, FFD, Lahore to G.M (Planning & Coordination) WAPDA.

11.2 Updated Flood Warning Dissemination Procedure:

The existing dissemination process has been reviewed and lists of the recipients of floodinformation have been streamlined. Basically there are two types of flood informationrequired to be provided for use by the appropriate recipients: i) the flood forecasts and ii) theflood data. Whereas the flood forecasts are disseminated by FFD as well as the FWC, theflood data is disseminated by the FWC only.



11.2.1 Flood Forecasts:

Some of the salient features of each type of the forecast are as under:

a) Color Coded Qualitative Flood Forecast

The colour coded forecasts are meant to forewarn the frontline flood mitigation authoritiesregarding the possibility of floods due to the arrival of monsoon low/depression in thevicinity of the Pakistan. The forecasts are issued in three colour codes relating to theposition and movement of the depression. Such forecasts constitute precautionaryinformation only. Further, most of such information is also included in the Weather/Floodsituation forecasts as well.

b) Weather/Flood Forecasts

Such forecasts give a descriptive information on the current and the next 24 hours weatherand flood situation. The forecast was introduced to facilitate the understanding of the floodsituation for those recipients who are highly placed Government functionaries (mostly at thefederal level) and thus need to know the Weather/Flood situation in general (easilyunderstandable) terms and are not concerned with detailed river forecast. The forecast isissued once in 24 hours and is passed via fax to the recipients (mostly located in Islamabad).

c) Routine Daily Flood Forecasts

Routine daily flood forecasts contain current and the next 24 hours weather and floodsituation. It gives the quantitative information of the magnitude of prevailing and theforecast flood flows at maximum number of directly or indirectly concerned recipients. Theforecast is disseminated both by FFD, Lahore, as well as by FWC, Lahore.

d) Significant Flood Forecast

Significant flood forecast is the forecast of occurrence of a flood of ‘High’ or higher level ata specific site/sites over a river and/or nallah within the Indus basin river system. Theforecast is commonly issued for the rim station but can be issued for any other downstreamsite as well expected flood is expressed in terms of Flood Levels (Low/Medium/High etc.)as well as a quantitative flood range, which is kept as narrow as possible. This is the mostimportant flood forecast and thus calls for the immediate action by the concernedauthorities. Significant forecast needs to be disseminated to those agencies/authorities whichhave the most direct involvement in the flood mitigation process.

e) Areal Inundation Flood Forecast

This forecast shall be issued only when the exceptionally high flood occurs and the arealinundation is forecast on the basis of the hydrodynamic model.

This forecast need to be provided to the concerned Government authorities and also to theprint and electronic media so that the flood prone population gets adequate and timelyinformation to afford pre-flood evacuation and/or other similar flood mitigation measures.



11.2.2 Dissemination of Flood Data

Besides the flood forecasts, the flood data is also disseminated to such Governmentfunctionaries as are required to closely monitor the flood levels at various headworks. Thedata consists of gauge and discharge data measured every six hours.

12. YEAR 2006 - FLOOD SEASON:

12.1 Official Seasonal Monsoon Rainfall Forecast

Pakistan Meteorological Department predicted normal monsoon rains during the periodfrom July to September, 2006. The official prediction of seasonal monsoon rainfall byPakistan Meteorological Department, issued in this context, is reproduced herewith on nextpage:

GOVERNMENT OF PAKISTANPAKISTAN METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT

(Computerised Dataprocessing Centre)P.O Box 8454, University Road.

Karachi – 75270

NORMAL MONSOON RAINS PREDICTED

In consideration of the Meteorological conditions prevailing over Pakistan and certain partsof the globe, the seasonal forecast of Pakistan Monsoon Rainfall for the period July to September2006, is given below:

(i) On all Pakistan basis this year’s Monsoon rains are likely to be Normal which meansthat the over all availability of water in the country from Monsoon rains would beNormal.

(ii) Absence of the EL-Nino, phenomenon, which normally suppressed Pakistan MonsoonRainfall, is likely to have no negative effect.

Notes: This is a seasonal forecast with confidence level of 80% and meant for the planning purpose only.The normal area weighted rainfall during July to September 2006 for Pakistan is 137.5 mm.

( S. ANZAR ALI JAFERY )DIRECTOR, C.D.P.C.,

Pakistan Meteorological DepartmentPakistan Meteorological Department,

Karachi.Phone:9261412, Fax: 9261413

E-mail:[email protected]



12.2 Annual Meeting of Federal Flood Commission

In order to stream line the flood preparedness and review the flood fighting arrangementsmade by various agencies i.e., All the four provincial Irrigation & PowerDepartments/PIDAs, Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD/FFD), WAPDA and PCIWa high level meeting (41st meeting of FFC) was held on June 14th, 2006. Federal Ministerfor Water & Power chaired the meeting. Main items of discussion included:

i) Confirmation of Minutes of 40th Meeting of Federal Flood Commission;

ii) Review of status of strengthening of Flood Protection Network by the Provinces andIdentification of Areas of Weaknesses;

iii) Flood Fighting Plan for the Year 2006-Flood Season and preparedness of ProvincialIrrigation Departments (PIDs/PIDAs) including liaison with Pakistan Army;

iv) Review of progress on the on-going improvements in Flood Forecasting & WarningSystem and gauging and telemetry system including performance of the Systemduring the Monsoon Season of 2005;

v) Arrangements made by PCIW for procurement of river flow data from India; and

vi) Arrangements made by Emergency Relief Cell, Cabinet Division for 2006 – FloodSeason.

The need for well-coordinated efforts among various concerned departments for combatingthe 2006 floods was emphasized. Flood being an important and critical issue, as such theconcerned agencies were advised for assigning due attention towards timely issuance of rainand flood forecasts and consequently ensuring timely warnings to the inhabitants ofendangered areas.

Representative of Provincial Irrigation & Power Departments/PIDAs and Flood ReliefDepartments informed the meeting about the sensitive areas(structures/bunds/embankments/spurs) and the measures taken to avert any catastrophe.Chief Meteorologist, Pakistan Meteorological Department informed that flood forecastingand dissemination of flood related information to other agencies and day-to-day briefing tothe press would continue on the pattern of previous year. Member (Water), WAPDA,informed that HF Radio Communication System and Meteoroburst TelecommunicationSystem (replacement of Old VHF System) would be fully operational during the 2006-FloodSeason for transmitting real time river/rain data. Pakistan Commissioner for Indus Watersapprised about the modalities of communication of flood data from India for the 2006-FloodSeason.

12.3 Measures Taken By Federal Flood Commission

Apart from organizing 41st Annual Meeting of FFC, discussed above, following steps weretaken at the level of FFC in order to ensure fulfillment of all the preparedness measurestowards 2006-Floods Season.



1. Pakistan Telecommunication Corporation was requested for smooth working &maintenance of important communication links relating to the dissemination ofrain/floods related information;

2. Pakistan Telecommunication Corporation was requested for the provision of a fulltime Telecom Engineer to PMD (FFD) at Lahore for a period of three (3) months inorder to ensure uninterrupted communication of data through PTCL links;

3. All the four Provincial Chief Secretaries were requested to issue instructions to allconcerned provincial agencies so that any outstanding arrangements for combatingcontingency situations must be completed in all respects, alongwith effectivemonitoring of all flood related activities throughout the flood season;

4. Provincial Relief Departments were advised to ensure all necessary material help incase of an emergency in the shape of provision of tents , life jackets, life boats etc,through a well coordinated plan with Pakistan Army;

5. All Provinces were advised to ensure full participation of all the DistrictCoordination Officers in flood management activities during the 2006. Flood seasonand that they would have the overall responsibility for effective inter action betweenvarious agencies;

6. All the four Provincial Irrigation & Power Departments were requested for a jointreconnaissance of all the important flood bunds/embankments with respectivePakistan Army Corps of Engineers;

7. Flood Communication Cell of Federal Flood Commission remained in operation onround-the-clock basis for the entire flood season; and

8. Services of one Officer/Engineer was made available by FFC on full time basisincluding the provision of necessary data, technical details as and when required byany of the concerned government agency.

12.4 Public Sector Development Program 2006-2007

For the Year 2006-2007 Federal Flood Commission requested Planning & DevelopmentDivision through M/O Water & Power for allocation of funds in respect of Normal AnnualDevelopment Program based on the priority list of schemes received for the Provinces andFederal Line agencies.

Table 14 depicts the PSDP 2006-2007 allocations and releases till December 2006 made bythe Government of Pakistan for Normal/Emergent Flood Protection programme out ofRs: 950 million allocation.



Table –14

PSDP 2006-20067 ALLOCATIONS AND RELEASES TILL DECEMBER 2006

Rs. In MillionName of Province/Federal Line

AgenciesOriginal

AllocationRevised

AllocationReleases as

1st halfBalance

Punjab 401.625 363.375 200.813 162.562Sindh 276.675 250.325 138.338 111.987NWFP 98.175 88.825 49.088 39.737Balochistan 71.400 64.600 35.700 28.900FATA 26.775 24.225 13.388 10.837AJ&K 8.925 8.075 4.463 3.612Northern Areas 8.925 8.075 4.463 3.612Islamabad Capital Territory 12.500 11.310 6.250 5.060Priority of Flood Works in theProvinces and Federal Lineagencies to be carried out asdecided by Federal Minister forW&P

105.000 95.000 52.500 42.500

Federal Flood Commission 40.00 36.190 3.000 33.190Total: 1,050.000 950.000 508.003 441.997

13. FFC’s ACTIVITIES DURING THE YEAR 2006-FLOOD SEASON

13.1 Setting up of a Flood Communication Cell in Federal Flood Commission (FFC)

On the advent of the 2006-Flood Season, a Flood Communication Cell was set up in theFederal Flood Commission which started functioning with effect from July 01st, 2006 andcontinued till October 15, 2006.

The main objective of the Flood Communication Cell was to obtain information from theFlood Forecasting Division (FFD), Lahore, and other Flood Warning Centres set up in theProvincial Headquarters. Also data relating to river discharges at Rim stations and otherimportant control points and information with regard to rainfall at important stations werereceived.In addition to the special duty staff (for round-the-clock collection of data), one officerremained available during all working days as well as on Sundays and National Holidays forcollection of necessary information regarding rain/flood damages and bund breaches, if any.

13.2 Flood Monitoring Situation Report on Weather & River Discharges

A Flood Monitoring Situation Report on Weather & River Discharges was prepared on dailybasis and issued to important Government officials including in particular to the following:-

1. Minister for Water & Power, M/O Water & Power, Islamabad.2. Chief of Staff to the President, Aiwan-e-Sadar, Islamabad.3. Principal Secretary to the Prime Minister, Prime Minister’s Secretariat,Islamabad.4. Advisor to M/O Water & Power, Islamabad.



5. Special Secretary (Water & Power), M/O Water & Power, Islamabad.6. Director General (ERC), Cabinet Division, Islamabad.7. Flood Cell, General Staff Branch, Engineering Directorate, GHQ, Rawalpindi.

The report based on information received from WAPDA and FFD’s Weather Forecastcontained actual river flow position of major rivers in a tabular form with prevailing weathersystem situation (including Seasonal Low from the Arabian Sea, Westerly Wave Systemfrom the Mediterranean and Monsoon System from Bay of Bengal-India). Also the reportreflected concise forecast relating to the movement of various weather systems and the riverflow condition for the next 24 hours including likely inundation/flooding of nallahs etc.

Apart from above, Special Flood Reports were issued relating to floods in River Kabul andChenab. Senior Officers of FFC also presented regular briefings on the national electronicmedia relating to current flood situation.

Specimen of Flood Monitoring Situation Report is attached as Annexure-I. A comparisonof Historic Maximum flood peaks Vs 2006 Flood Maximum flood peaks is given inTable-15.

Table-15

HISTORIC MAXIMUM VS 2006 MAXIMUM PEAK DISCHARGES OFMAJOR RIVERS OF PAKISTAN

(In cusecs)Historic Maximum Maximum-2006River Barrages/

HeadworksFlood Date Flood Date

Tarbela 15,00,000 15,10,000 31-7-89 2,86,600 29-07-06Kalabagh 9,50,000 9,50,000 14-7-42 4,89,600 06-08-06Chashma 9,50,000 7,86,600 3-8-76 5,84,700 06-08-06Taunsa 11,00,000 7,88,646 22-7-58 6,12,300 09-08-06Guddu 12,00,000 11,99,672 15-8-76 5,70,500 13-08-06Sukkur 15,00,000 11,66,574 15-8-76 5,14,000 16-08-06

Sindh

Kotri 8,75,000 9,81,000 14-8-56 3,56,500 25-08-06Mangla 10,60,000 10,90,000 10-9-92 83,500 08-08-06JhelumRasul 8,50,000 9,52,170 10-9-92 1,65,945 13-08-06Marala 11,00,000 11,00,000 26-8-57 3,33,000 03-09-06Qadirabad 8,07,000 9,48,530 11-9-92 4,43,200 03-09-06Trimmu 6,45,000 9,43,225 8-7-59 2,66,300 07-09-06

Chenab

Panjnad 7,00,000 8,02,516 17-8-73 1,89,000 11-09-06Balloki 2,25,000 3,89,845 28-9-88 41,300 03-09-06RaviSidhnai 1,50,000 3,30,210 2-10-88 10,700 01-08-06

Sutlej Sulemanki 3,25,000 5,98,872 8-10-55 9,100 10-09-06

Attached as Annexure-II is river discharge data from July 01, 2006 to September 30, 2006 for all themajor rivers of Pakistan along with their graphical representations besides Tarbela and Manglareservoir levels comparisons at Annexure-III & IV respectively.



13.3 Rain/Flood Damages & Relief Measures Report:

Keeping in view the instructions of Federal Minister for Water & Power, FFC also issued ondaily basis, from August 05, 2006 to September 25, 2006, up-to-date information onrain/flood damages and relief measures based on data received from Provincial ReliefCommissioners.

13.4 Guidelines for Mangla Flood Management

Guidelines for Mangla Dam Flood Management, remained in operation for the 2006-FloodSeason also.

14. OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF 2006-MONSOON SEASON

2006-Monsoon Season can be termed a relatively wet monsoon season as far as rainfallreceived by the Pakistan river catchments. Number of rivers experienced flood situations. Asmay be seen from Table-15 maximum discharge experienced by River Indus was at Taunsai.e. 6,12,000 cusecs which is a high flood stage. River Jhelum experienced a maximumdischarge of 1,65,945 cusecs at Rasul, River Chenab 4,43,200 cusecs at Qadirabad, RiverRavi 41,300 cusecs at Balloki and Sutlej 9,100 cusecs at Sulemanki respectively

15. COMPREHENSIVE 10-YEAR FLOOD PROTECTION PLAN

In view of the fact that FFC would be completing the on-going National Flood ProtectionPlan-III (1998-2006), during the financial year 2006-07, FFC prepared and submittedComprehensive 10-Year Flood Protection Plan (NFPP-IV, 2007-2016). The proposed plan, whichhas been prepared in consultation with concerned stakeholders and costing Rs 30 billion envisagesconstruction of flood protection works (spurs, embankments, retaining walls, dykes etc.) in all thefour provinces and federal line agencies besides implementation of flood forecasting & warningsystem improvements.





ANNEXURE _ I

16-D (East), Blue Area, IslamabadFax No. 9221805

Government of PakistanMinistry of Water and Power

Federal Flood Commission

DAILY FLOOD SITUATION REPORT

FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 29, 2006

All the major rivers including River Indus are flowing normal. Today’s actual river flowsand reservoir elevations may be seen at Annexure-I, which indicate that the reservoir elevations ofTarbela & Mangla Dams are presently at 1537.62 ft. and 1200.50 ft. respectively which are 12.38 ft.and 1.50 ft. below their respective Maximum Conservation Levels of 1550.00 ft and 1202.00 ft.

2. According to Flood Forecasting Division (FFD), Lahore, yesterday’s Westerly Wave overNorth of Afghanistan continues to persist whereas a well marked monsoon low hasdeveloped over North Bay of Bengal (India). FFD, Lahore, is closely monitoring theprevalent weather system with reference to its impact on Pakistan.

3. No significant rainfall even t has been reported by FFD, Lahore, for the last 24 hours. As perthe forecast of FFD, Lahore, isolated rain may occur over the upper catchment of RiverIndus during the ensuing 24 hours.

4. In view of the fact that all of our main rivers are currently flowing normal withpersistent low flows and presently there is less likelihood of any strong weather systemgenerating high flows, the Daily Flood Situation Report shall be discontinued effectivefrom October 01, 2006. All monitoring arrangements shall however remain in positiontill October 15, 2006 and the Flood Report shall be revived in case a situation arisesdue to any wet spell.

(Engr. Dr. I. B. Shaikh)Chief Engineering Adviser/Chairman

Federal Flood CommissionTel: 9221805

92065891. Minister for Water & Power, Islamabad.2. Chief of Staff to the President, Aiwan-e-Sadar, Islamabad.3. Principal Secretary to the Prime Minister, Prime Minister’s Secretariat, Islamabad.4. Secretary, Water & Power, Islamabad.5. Adviser, Ministry of Water & Power, Islamabad.6. Director General (ERC), Cabinet Division, Islamabad.7. Flood Cell, General Staff Branch, Engineer Directorate, GHQ, Rawalpindi.

U.O.No. FC-I (31)/2006-XXIII dated 29-09-2006.



ANNEXURE-I

Discharges at Important River SitesSeptember 29, 2006 At 0600 Hours

(Cusecs)Structures Designed

CapacityActual Flow

In Flow Out Flow

ComparativeDanger (VHF)classification

Actual FloodClassification

**River Indus

Tarbela Reservoir * Kalabagh Chashma Reservoir Taunsa Guddu Sukkur Kotri

15,00,0009,50,0009,50,000

11,00,00012,00,00015,00,0008,75,000

54,0001,28,0001,23,000

99,00097,00066,00037,000

1,10,0001,19,0001,03,000

70,00073,00016,00012,000

6,50,0006,50,0006,50,0006,50,0007,00,0007,00,0006,50,000

NormalNormalNormalNormalNormalNormalNormal

River Kabul Warsak Nowshera

5,40,000 6,00013,000

2,00,0002,00,000

NormalNormal

River Jhelum Mangla Reservoir * Rasul

10,60,0008,50,000

20,00022,000

30,000Nil

2,25,0002,25,000

NormalNormal

River Chenab Marala Khanki Qadirabad Trimmu Panjnad

11,00,0008,00,0008,07,0006,45,0007,00,000

25,0008,000

20,00019,00024,000

5,000NIlNIl

1,0009,000

4,00,0004,00,0004,00,0004,50,0004,50,000

NormalNormalNormalNormalNormal

River Ravi Jassar Shahdra Balloki Sidhnai

2,75,0002,50,0002,25,0001,50,000

24,00016,000

4,0005,000

Nil1,000

1,50,0001,35,0001,35,000

90,000

NormalNormalNormalNormal

River Sutlej Suleimanki Islam

3,25,0003,00,000

12,0002,000

NilNil

1,75,0001,75,000

NormalNormal

Reservoir Elevation (Feet Above Sea Level) 2006 2005 2004Tarbela (Maximum Conservation Level 1550) - 1537.62 1532.85 1470.00

(Dead Level 1369)Chashma (Maximum Conservation Level 649) - 643.60 646.00 638.15

(Dead Level 637)Mangla (Maximum Conservation Level 1202) - 1200.50 1198.30 1156.40

(Dead Level 1040)------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Skardu Temperature: Maximum: 21.1 0C Minimum: 10.0 0C

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------NOTES:* For Reservoirs, discharges (Inflows/Outflows) are averages of 24 hours.** Flood Classification: (applied on downstream discharge/Outflow)"Mild" Categories

Low Flood: River flowing within deep (winter) channel(s) but about to spill threatening only river islands/belasMedium Flood: River partly inundating river islands/belasHigh Flood: River almost fully submerging islands/belas and flowing upto high banks/bunds but without

encroachment on the freeboard"Danger" Categories

Very High Flood: River flowing between high banks/bunds with encroachment on the freeboard(VHF)

Exceptionally Imminent danger of overtopping/breaching, or the high bank areas have become inundatedHigh Flood:

(EHF)*** (R) Signifies "Rising" Flood, (F) Signifies "Falling" Flood,

(S) Signifies "Stable" Flow Condition

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