FINALREPORT24May2017Fortheprojectentitled:Alandscape-levelassessmentofconservationvaluesandpotentialthreatsintheBearsEarsNationalMonumentSubmittedto:TheCenterforAmericanProgressBy:BrettG.Dickson,PhD–ChiefScientistMeredithMcClure,PhD–LeadScientistChristineM.Albano,MSc–LeadScientist

ConservationSciencePartners 2|P a g e

Figure1.BearsEarsNationalMonument(BENM)andsurroundingprotectedareas.

IntroductionFundamentalprinciplesofsystematicconservationplanning(e.g.,MargulesandPressey2000)suggestthatanecologicallyfunctionalprotectedareasnetworkrequiresasufficientlandbase,shouldprotectavarietyofhabitats,and—perhapsmostcritically—needstoberesilienttoongoingclimatechange(Dawsonetal.2011),andinterconnected(DeFriesetal.2007,Cummingetal.2015).Yet,intheUnitedStates,asisthecaseinotherplacesintheworld,protectedareashaverarelybeenselectedtomeetthesecriteria(Scottetal.1993,Jenkinsetal.2015).ExistingprotectedareasintheU.S.arelikelyinsufficienttoguardagainstthelong-termlossofspeciesandthehabitatstheyrequire(Scottetal.2001).Thus,thereisasignificantneedtosecureandconnectprotectedareastopreventfurtherlossofbiodiversityandpreserveecologicalfunctionsinthefaceofclimatechange.InthewesternU.S.,vastareasofunprotectedandundevelopedpubliclandcurrentlyservetoenhancetheecologicaleffectivenessoftheU.S.protectedareasnetwork(Dicksonetal.2016).However,theexpansionofenergydevelopment,mining,timberharvesting,andotherextractivelandusesthreatentofragmenttheseareas,reducingtheirecologicalfunction(HansenandDefries2007).Theseactivitiescanalsoreducetheeffectivenessofexistingprotectedareas(e.g.,Bergeretal.2014).Thus,carefulselectionofareasforconservationandprotectionthatarebasedonthearea’secologicalsignificanceandcontextisanimportantstepforbothmaintainingandenhancingtheexistingprotectedareasnetwork(Dicksonetal.2014,Watsonetal.2016).Moreover,thereisacriticalneedtoaddresstheimpactsandconservationimplicationsofongoingclimatechangeonvulnerablepubliclands(Steinetal.2014).Federalagenciesareattemptingtoaddressthisneedthroughrecentenvironmentalinitiatives,suchasthestrategyforimprovingthemitigationpoliciesandpracticesoftheDepartmentoftheInterior(Clementetal.2014)andtheNationalFish,Wildlife,andPlantsClimateAdaptationStrategy(NationalFish,Wildlife,andPlantsClimateAdaptationPartnership2012).Federallandmanagersareparticularlywellpositionedtoworkacrossjurisdictionalboundariesandcoordinatetheirclimateadaptationplanningstrategiesandactivitiesamongagenciesandstakeholders(OlliffandHansen2016).Concomitantly,nongovernmentalorganizationsandotherpartnersmustcontinueworkingwithagenciestodevelopcollaborativeapproachesforaddressingclimatechangeandadaptingtheirownconservationandstewardshipstrategies.Inthiscontext,the1.35-millionacreBearsEarsNationalMonument(BENM;Fig.1)insoutheasternUtahpresentsasignificantopportunitytoconservekeyelementsofecologicalfunctionwithinthisregionandacrossthewesternU.S.ArecentstudybyDicksonetal.(2014)wasdesignedtoprovideasoundscientificbasisforconservation-basedspecialdesignationsinthewesternU.S.,withanemphasisonunprotected,roadlessBureauofLandManagementlands.ResultsfromthisstudysuggestedthatareasintheregionthatincludesBENMwereamongthemostimportantintheWest,intermsoftheirconservationvalue.Here,weleverageinputdataandresults

ConservationSciencePartners 3|P a g e

producedbythisstudy,aswellasothersourcesofreadilyavailablespatialdata,toconductanassessmentofecologicalfeaturesandvaluesacrossBENM.Wefocusedourassessmentoninformationthathighlightedtheecologicalimportance,climateresilience,andecologicalrepresentativenessofBENMinaWest-widecomparativeanalysis.

MethodsAssessingtheconservationvaluesandpotentialthreatsoftheBearsEarsNationalMonumentForourassessment,wemappedandsummarizedtwelvelandscape-levelindicatorsofecologicalconnectivityandintactness,biodiversity,resiliencetoclimatechange,remotenessandthreats(detailedinTable1andAppendixA).Specifically,weusedreadilyavailablespatialdatalayersandpublishedmethodstomodeltwoindicatorsoflandscapeconnectivityandintactness:ecologicalconnectivity(Dickson2016)andecologicalintactness(afterTheobald2013);sixindicatorsofbiodiversity:ecosystemtyperarity(USGS2011),lithologicaldiversity(SollerandReheis,2004),rarity-weightedspeciesrichness(Chaplinetal.2000;updatedin2013),vegetationdiversity(Scottetal.1993),mammaldiversityandreptilediversity(Jenkins2013);oneindicatorofremoteness:nightskydarkness(NOAA2012);oneindicatorofresiliencetoclimatechange:climateresilience(Hamannetal.2015);andtwoindicatorsofthreatsandvulnerabilitiestoadversechange:mineralresourcepotential(USGS2005)andoilandgasresourcepotential(Copelandetal.2009,USDOIetal.2008).Dataforeachindicatorwasgeneratedata270-mpixelresolution.AlthoughwefocusedourassessmentonBENM,ourindicatormapsextendedacrossall11westernstates,permittingcomparisonsbetweenBENMandequivalentlysizedareaswithinthesestates,regardlessofjurisdiction.Wedeterminedthevaluesofeachoftheindicatorsrelativetothelargerlandscapeusingasimplescoringsystembasedonpercentileranks.Specifically,themeanvalueofeachindicatorwithinBENMwascomparedtothedistributionofmeansofalarge(n=1000)randomsampleofareasacrossthe11westernstates,includingalljurisdictions.ThesizeoftherandomsampleswasequivalenttothesizeoffederallandswithintheBENM.Scoresrangedfrom0to100.Forexample,ascoreof98foragivenindicatorwouldindicatethatthemeanvalueofthatindicatorinBENMwasgreaterthanorequalto98%oftheequivalently-sizedrandomsamples.Scoresof50orhighersuggestarelativelyimportantindicator.Werepeatedthisanalysisusing10ofthe12indicators(oilandgasandmineralresourcepotentialswereomittedduetolackofdatawithinnationalparkboundaries)foreachofsevenwell-knownnationalparks,includingArches,Canyonlands,Glacier,GrandCanyon,RockyMountain,Yellowstone,andYosemite.Ineachcase,agivenparkwascomparedtoalarge(n=1000)randomsampleofareasequivalentinsizetotheparkusingthescoringsystemdescribedabove.

ResultsandDiscussionOuranalysisindicatesthatBENMcontainsmultipleimportantconservationfeaturesandfurtherhighlightstheneedforspecialmanagementofthesevaluesandresources.

TheBENMhasexceptionallyhighpotentialtofacilitateecologicalconnectivityandmaintainecologicalintactness.

ConservationSciencePartners 4|P a g e

Table1.TwelveindicatorsusedtoassessecologicalandconservationvalueswithinBENM.SeeAppendixAfordetailsonthesourcedataand/orderivationofthesedatasets.

Indicator DataSource DescriptionEcologicalConnectivity

Dicksonetal.(2016) Modelofecologicalflowamongexistingprotectedareaswithinthe11westernstatesinordertoquantifytheabilityofcurrentlyunprotectedareastoenhancepotentialconnectivityacrosstheexistingprotectedareasnetwork.

EcologicalIntactness Theobaldetal.(2016),Theobald(2013)

CharacterizestheintensityandfootprintofhumanmodificationacrosstheWest,basedon12typesofhumanactivities.

EcosystemTypeRarity

EcologicalSystemType,USGS(2011)

ArealextentofUSGSGAPecologicalsystemtypes.

Rarity-weightedSpeciesRichness

NatureServe(2013) Speciesrarityandirreplaceabilitythatidentifiessitesthatcontaincritically-imperiledorimperiledspecieswithrestricteddistributions.

LithologicalDiversity SollerandReheis(2004)

Publishedmapoflithologicalunits.Lithologicaldiversityisafundamentaldriverofbothecologicalandevolutionaryprocessesthatgeneratespeciesdiversity.

VegetationDiversity EcologicalSystemType,USGS(2011)

EstimateofecologicalsystemsdiversityatmultiplespatialscalesusingUSGSGapEcologicalSystems.

MammalDiversity BiodiversityMapping.org;Jenkins(2013)

DataofmammalspeciesrichnessbasedontherangemapsinthecontinentalU.S.

ReptileDiversity BiodiversityMapping.org;Jenkins(2013)

DataofreptilespeciesrichnessbasedontherangemapsinthecontinentalU.S.

NightSkyDarkness NOAA(2012) Artificialnighttimelightsobservedviasatellite.

ClimateResilience Hamannetal.(2015) Modelofmultivariateclimatevelocitytoquantifythevelocity(speedanddirection)aspeciesmustmigratetopersistinanareawiththesameclimaticconditions,givenprojectedchangesinclimate.

MineralResourcePotential

USGS(2005) MineralandmineoccurrencedatafromtheUSGSMineralsResourceDataSystem.

Oil&GasResourcePotential

Copelandetal.(2009);USDOIetal.(2008)

Combinationoftwoexistingdatasetstodevelopawest-widerepresentationofrelativeoilandgasresourcepotential.

Themaintenanceofconnectivityprocessesisoneofthemostimportantaspectsofbiodiversityandlandscape-levelconservation(Tayloretal.1993,Noonetal.2009).Consideringallotherwesternlandsandjurisdictions,weobservedexceptionallyhighvaluesforecologicalintactnessandconnectivitywithinBENM,scoringinthe92ndand90thpercentiles,respectively(Fig.2,Maps1and2).TheBENMservestofacilitatetheflowofmultipleecologicalprocesses,suchasdispersal,migration,andgeneflow(Dicksonetal.2016).RelativelyunmodifiedlandscapesinthisregionmaybekeytothemovementoffundamentalecologicalprocessesbetweenotherprotectedareasandBENM(Dicksonetal.2016).BENMhelpstobuildatruenetworkofprotectedareasthatenhancelandscapeconnectivity(Krosbyetal.2010)andintegrity(Theobald2013),aswellastheassociatedcapacityforadaptationtofutureclimatechange(HellerandZavaleta2009;Dawsonetal.2011).

ConservationSciencePartners 5|P a g e

Figure2.ScoresreceivedbyBENM(bars)andsevennationalparks(dots)foreachofthe12ecologicalindicatorsbycomparingthemtoarandomsetofequivalently-sizedareaslocatedacrossthe11westernstates.Potentialscoresrangefrom0-100(100beinghighest).Ascoreof93foragivenindicatorindicatesthatthemeanvalueofthatindicatorinBENMoragivenparkwasgreaterthanorequaltothemeanvaluein93%ofequivalently-sizedrandomsamples.AtabularsummaryofthesescoresislocatedinAppendixB.

TheBENMhassomeofthelowestlevelsoflightpollutioninthewesternUS,scoringinthe95thpercentilefornightskydarkness.Asaresult,BENMisoneofthedarkestnightskiesofanyequivalentlysizedareasinthewesternU.S.(Fig.2,Map1),suggestingitisoneofthemostremotelandscapesinthewesternU.S.InNorthAmerica,lightemissionshavehistoricallyincreasedatanestimatedrateof6%annually,resultinginarapidincreaseinlightpollution(CinzanoandElvidge2003).Consideringourresults,BENMmaybeoneofthebestlandscapesintheU.S.topreserveremoteenvironmentalassetsofbothhumanandecologicalsignificance(Wattsetal.2007).

TheBENMhasexemplaryscenicvaluesintermsofnightskydarknessandisoneofthemostremotelandscapesinthewesternU.S.,rivalingmostlargenationalparks.

TheecologicaluniquenessanddiversityofBENMcontributestoitshighvalueforbiodiversityconservation.

ConservationSciencePartners 6|P a g e

OurresultsindicatetheWest-wideimportanceofBENMtosustaininganimperiledbutwidediversityofspeciescomparabletomostofthenationalparksweanalyzed,givenitshighvalueswithrespecttomammalandreptilediversity,rarity-weightedspeciesrichness,andvegetationcommunitydiversity.Theareascoredinthe77thand69thpercentileformammalandreptilediversity,respectively(Fig.2,Maps2and3).Atthesametime,BENMscoredinthe69thpercentileforrarity-weightedspeciesrichness,arelativemeasureoftheconcentrationofrareandirreplaceablespeciesfortheconterminousU.S.(Chaplinetal.2000)(Fig.2,Map4).UptothirteenfederallylistedspeciespotentiallyoccurwithinBENM,anditsboundariesincludedesignatedorproposedcriticalhabitatforfivelistedspecies,includingtheMexicanspottedowl(Strixoccidentalislucida)andSouthwesternWillowFlycatcher(Empidonaxtrailiiextimus)(USFWS2017).Inaddition,BENMscoredinthe63rdpercentileforvegetationcommunitydiversity,whichincludesamixofsignificantColoradoPlateau,RockyMountainandIntermountainBasinvegetationtypes,andthe62ndpercentileforecosystemtyperarity(Fig.1,Maps3and4).Ourresultspointtothehighlydistinctivenatureandirreplaceablevalueofthisareawithrespecttorareandendemicspecies,aswellasthediversehabitatstheydependon.

TheBENMisvulnerabletomineralresource,andoilandgasresourcedevelopmentgivenhighdevelopmentpotential,scoringinthe68thand52ndpercentile,respectively(Fig.2,Map6).Depositsofuranium,andtoalesserextent,vanadiumandcopper,occurwithintheBENM(USGS2005).HistoricalminingoftheseresourcesinthelandssurroundingtheBENMhaveresultedinlong-lastinglegaciesofsoils,water,andaircontamination,withseriousimpactstohumanhealth(USEPA2008).Thepotentialimpactsofenergydevelopmentssuchaswind,solar,andoilandgasonwildlifespeciesarewelldocumented(NorthrupandWittemyer2013).Inlightofthesepotentialimpacts,specialmanagementattentionwillbeneededtoavoidnegativeeffectsonsensitivewildlifespeciesandhabitats,whichmayincludehabitatlossorfragmentation,directmortalityfromvehicleorinfrastructurecollisions,changesinthefitnessofindividualsduetoanthropogenicdisturbancessuchasnoiseorlight,orincreasesinpredationmortality(NorthrupandWittemyer2013).ConclusionsOurlandscape-levelassessmentofBENMinaWest-widecontexthighlightedtheintrinsicvalueoftheareawithrespecttomultipleindicatorsofconservationvalue,namelyecologicalconnectivityandintactness,remotenessandbiodiversity.Ouranalysisfurtherindicatesthatthesevaluesrivalthosefoundinmanyofthemostwell-knownandlargernationalparksinthewesternU.S.ConsideringalsotheresultsofDicksonetal.(2014,2016),BENMsubstantiallyenhancestheexistingnetworkofprotectedareasinthefaceofclimatechange,whilesupportingfundamentalecologicalprocesses,suchashabitatconnectivity.Thevalueofthisareainsustainingtheecologicalfunctionandlarge,contiguouslandscapesthatalsosupporthighlevelsofbiodiversityshouldnotbeunderestimated.

TheBENMisvulnerabletoadversechangeassociatedwithdevelopmentofmineral,oilandgasresources.

ConservationSciencePartners 7|P a g e

Map1.Landscape-level,ecologicalindicatorsofnightskydarkness(top)andecologicalintactness(bottom).

ConservationSciencePartners 8|P a g e

Map2.Landscape-level,ecologicalindicatorsofecologicalconnectivity(top)andmammaldiversity(bottom).

ConservationSciencePartners 9|P a g e

Map3.Landscape-level,ecologicalindicatorsofreptilediversity(top)andecosystemtyperarity(bottom).

ConservationSciencePartners 10|P a g e

Map4.Landscape-level,ecologicalindicatorsofvegetationdiversity(top)andrarity-weightedspeciesrichness(bottom).

ConservationSciencePartners 11|P a g e

Map5.Landscape-level,ecologicalindicatorsoflithologicaldiversity(top)andclimateresilience(bottom).

ConservationSciencePartners 12|P a g e

Map6.Landscape-level,ecologicalthreatindicatorsofmineralresourcepotential(top)andoilandgasresourcepotential(bottom).

ConservationSciencePartners 13|P a g e

LiteratureCitedBerger,J.,S.L.Cain,E.Cheng,P.Dratch,K.Ellison,J.Francis,H.C.Frost,S.Gende,C.Groves,W.A.

Karesh,andE.Leslie.2014.Optimismandchallengeforscience-basedconservationofmigratoryspeciesinandoutofUSNationalParks.ConservBiol28:4-12.

Chaplin,S.J.,R.A.Gerrard,H.M.,Watson,L.L.,Master,andS.R.,Flack.2000.Thegeographyofimperilment:targetingconservationtowardcriticalbiodiversityareas.In:Stein,B.A.,L.S.Kutner,J.S.,Adams(Eds.).PreciousHeritage:theStatusofBiodiversityintheUnitedStates:theStatusofBiodiversityintheUnitedStates.OxfordUniversityPress,USA,pp.159–199.

Cinzano,P.andC.D.Elvidge.2003.Nightskybrightnessatsitesfromsatellitedata.MemSocAstronIt74:456-457.

Clement,J.P.,A.Belin,M.J.Bean,T.A.Boling,andJ.R.Lyons.2014.AstrategyforimprovingthemitigationpoliciesandpracticesofTheDepartmentoftheInterior.WashingtonD.C.

Copeland,H.E.,K.E.Doherty.D.E.Naugle,A.Pocewicz,andJ.M.Kiesecker.2009.MappingOilandGasDevelopmentPotentialintheUSIntermountainWestandEstimatingImpactstoSpecies.PLoSONE4:e7400.

Cumming,S.G.,C.R.Drever,M.Houle,J.Cosco,J.Racine.P.,E.BayneandF.K.Schmiegelow.2015.AgapanalysisoftreespeciesrepresentationintheprotectedareasoftheCanadianborealforest:applyinganewassemblageofdigitalForestResourceInventorydata.CanJForRes45:163–173.

Dawson,T.,S.TJackson,J.I.House,I.C.PrenticeandG.M.Mace.2011.Beyondpredictions :biodiversityconservationinachangingclimate.Science332:53–58.

DeFries,R.,A.Hansen,B.L.Turner,R.ReidandJ.Liu.2007.Landusechangearoundprotectedareas:managementtobalancehumanneedsandecologicalfunction.EcolAppl17:1031–1038.

Dickson,B.G.L.J.Zachmann,andC.M.Albano.2014.SystematicidentificationofpotentialconservationpriorityareasonroadlessBureauofLandManagementlandsinthewesternUnitedStates.BiolConserv178:117–127.

Dickson,B.G.,C.M.Albano,B.H.McRae,D.M.Theobald,J.J.Anderson,L.J.Zachmann,T.D.Sisk,andM.P.Dombeck.2016.InformingstrategiceffortstoexpandandconnectprotectedareasofthewesternUSusingamodelofecologicalflow.ConservLettDOI:10.1111/conl.12322.

Hamann,A.,D.R.Roberts,Q.E.Barber,C.Carroll,andS.E.Nielsen.2014.Velocityofclimatechangealgorithmsforguidingconservationandmanagement.GlobalChangeBiology21:997–1004.

Hansen,A.andR.DeFries.2007.Ecologicalmechanismslinkingprotectedareastosurroundinglands.EcolAppl17:974–988.

Heller,N.andE.Zavaleta.2009.Biodiversitymanagementinthefaceofclimatechange:areviewof22yearsofrecommendations.BiolConserv142:14–32.

InternationalUnionfortheConservationofNature(IUCN).2008.Guidelinesforapplyingprotectedareamanagementcategories.IUCN,Gland,SwitzerlandandCambridge.

Jenkins,C.N.,S.L.Pimm,andL.N.Joppa.2013.Globalpatternsofterrestrialvertebratediversityandconservation.ProcNatlAcadSci110:E2602-E2610.

Jenkins,C.N.,K.S.VanHoutan,S.L.Pimm,andJ.O.Sexton.2015.USprotectedlandsmismatchbiodiversitypriorities.ProcNatlAcadSci112:5081–5086.

Krosby,M.,J.Tewksbury,N.M.Haddad,andJ.Hoekstra.2010.Ecologicalconnectivityforachangingclimate:ecologicalconnectivity.ConservBiol24:1686–1689.

Krosby,M.,I.Breckheimer,D.J.Pierce,P.H.Singleton,S.A.Hall,K.C.Halupka,W.L.Gaines,R.A.Long,B.H.McRae,B.L.Cosentino,andJ.P.Schuett-Hames.2015.Focalspeciesandlandscape“naturalness”corridormodelsoffercomplementaryapproachesforconnectivityconservationplanning.LandscEcol30:2121–2132.

ConservationSciencePartners 14|P a g e

Margules,C.R.andR.L.Pressey.2000.Systematicconservationplanning.Nature405:243–253.McRae,B.H.,B.G.Dickson,T.Keitt,andV.Shah.2008.Usingcircuittheorytomodelconnectivityin

ecology,evolution,andconservation.Ecology89:2712–2724.NationalOceanicandAtmosphericAdministration(NOAA).2012.Version1NighttimeVIIRSDay/Night

BandComposite.NOAA/NGDCEarthObservationsGroup.NatureServe.2013.NatureServeCentralDatabase.NatureServe,Arlington,Virginia.Noon,B.R.,K.S.McKelvey,andB.G.Dickson.2009.MultispeciesconservationplanningonUSfederal

lands.In:MillspaughJ,ThompsonF(eds)Modelsforplanningwildlifeconservationinlargelandscapes.Elsevier,London,UK,pp51–83.

Northrup,J.M.,andG.Wittemyer.2013.Characterizingtheimpactsofemergingenergydevelopmentonwildlife,withaneyetowardsmitigation.EcolLett16:112–125.

Olliff,S.T.andA.J.Hansen.2016.Integratingclimatescienceintofederallandmanagement.In:HansenA,MonahanW,TheobaldD,OlliffS(eds)Climatechangeinwildlands:PioneeringApproachestoScienceandManagement.IslandPress,WashingtonD.C.,pp33–52.

Scott,J.M.,F.Davis,B.Csuti,R.Noss,B.Butterfield,C.Groves,H.Anderson,S.Caicco,F.D’Erchis,T.C.Edwards,andJ.Ulliman.1993.Gapanalysis:ageographicapproachtoprotectionofbiologicaldiversity.WildlMonogr123:3–41.

Scott,J.M.,F.WDavis,R.G.McGhie,C.Groves,andJ.Estes.2001.Naturereserves:DotheycapturethefullrangeofAmerica’sbiologicaldiversity?EcolAppl11:999–1007.

Soller,D.R.andM.C.Reheis.2004.SurficialMaterialsintheConterminousUnitedStates.U.S.GeologicalSurveyOpen-fileReport03-275,scale1:5,000,000.

Stein,B.A.,P.Glick,N.Edelson,andA.Staudt(eds).2014.Climate-smartconservation:puttingadaptationprinciplesintopractice.NationalWildlifeFederation,WashingtonD.C.

Taylor,P.D.,L.Fahrig,K.Henein,andG.Merriam.1993.Connectivityisavitalelementoflandscapestructure.Oikos68:571–573.

Theobald,D.M.2013.AgeneralmodeltoquantifyecologicalintegrityforlandscapeassessmentsandUSapplication.LandscapeEcology28:1859–1874.

Theobald,D.M.,D.Harrison-Atlas,W.B.Monahan,andC.M.Albano.2015.Ecologically-RelevantMapsofLandformsandPhysiographicDiversityforClimateAdaptationPlanning:PLoSONE10:e0143619.

Theobald,D.M.,L.J.Zachmann,B.G.Dickson,M.E.Gray,C.M.Albano,V.Landau,andD.Harrison-Atlas.2016.Descriptionoftheapproach,data,andanalyticalmethodsusedtoestimatenaturallandlossinthewesternU.S.UnpublishedReport,Availablefromhttps://disappearingwest.org/methodology.pdf(accessedJune20,2016).

USDOI,USDA,andUSDOE.2008.Inventoryofonshorefederaloilandnaturalgasresourcesandrestrictionstotheirdevelopment,phaseIIIinventory–onshoreUnitedStates.BLM/WO/GI-03/002+3100/REV08.

USEPA.2008.HealthandenvironmentalimpactsofuraniumcontaminationintheNavajoNation:five-yearplan.Report.USEnvironmentalProtectionAgency,WashingtonDC.Availablefromhttp://www.epa.gov/region9/superfund/navajo-nation/pdf/NN-5-Year-Plan-June-12.pdf.

USFWS.2017.Information,Planning,andConservationSystem(IPaC)ResourceListfortheBearsEarsNationalMonument.https://ecos.fws.gov/ipac/.Accessed11Mar2017.

USGS.2005.MineralsResourceDataSystem.Availablefromhttp://mrdata.usgs.gov/mrds/(accessedJune15,2015).

USGS.2011.NationalGapAnalysisProgramLandCoverData-Version2.Availablefromhttp://gapanalysis.usgs.gov/gaplandcover/(accessedMay31,2012).

USGS.2012.ProtectedAreasDatabaseoftheUnitedStates(PADUS)version1.3Availablefromhttp://gapanalysis.usgs.gov/PADUS/(accessedJune12,2015).

ConservationSciencePartners 15|P a g e

Watson,J.E.,E.S.Darling,O.Venter,M.Maron,J.Walston,H.P.Possingham,N.Dudley,M.Hockings,M.Barnes,andT.M.Brooks.2016.Bolderscienceneedednowforprotectedareas.ConservBiol30:243–248.

Watts,R.D.,R.W.Compton,J.HMcCammon,C.L.Rich,S.M.Wright,T.Owens,andD.S.Ouren.2007.RoadlessspaceoftheconterminousUnitedStates.Science316:736–738.

ConservationSciencePartners 16|P a g e

AppendixA.DerivationofIndicatorsDescriptionsofsourcedata(andoriginalpixelresolution)andderivationmethodsfortwelveindicatorsusedtoassessecologicalcharacteristicswithinBENM.Rarity-weightedSpeciesRichnessRarity-weightedspeciesrichnessprovidesarelativemeasureoftheconcentrationofrareandirreplaceablespeciesacrosstheUS(Chaplinetal.2000).Highrarity-weightedspeciesrichnessisoftenindicativeofthepresenceofnumerousendemicspeciesand/orsitesthatcontaincritically-imperiledorimperiledspecieswithrestricteddistributions(i.e.,G1-G2–rankedspecies).Thesesitesareessentialformaintainingspeciesdiversity,particularlyrare,sensitive,andirreplaceablespecies.WeusedNatureServe’srarity-weightedrichnessindex(refreshed2013)1-kmresolutiondatalayerasanindicatorofspeciesrarityandirreplaceability(seeChaplinetal.,2000forreferencesanddescriptionofmethods).Additionalinformationonthismetricisavailablehere.EcosystemTypeRarityAreaswithhighecologicalsystemrarityarethosethatsupportrare,unique,orirreplaceablenaturalsystems.Thesesystemsarelikelytoconsistofspeciesthatarerare,unique,orirreplaceable.Ecologicalsystemsaredefinedas“groupsofplantcommunitytypesthattendtoco-occurwithinlandscapeswithsimilarecologicalprocesses,substratesand/orenvironmentalgradients”(Comeretal.2003),thustheyincorporatephysicalcomponentssuchaslandformposition,substrates,hydrology,andclimateinadditiontovegetation.Tocharacterizeecologicalsystemtyperarity,wecalculatedthearealextentofUSGSGAPecologicalsystemtypesat30-mresolution(USGS2011),thennormalizedthevaluesbasedonthemaximumvaluesothattheyrangedfrom0(leastrare)to1(mostrare).EcologicalSystems(Vegetation)DiversityDiverseecologicalsystems,definedas“groupsofplantcommunitytypesthattendtoco-occurwithinlandscapeswithsimilarecologicalprocesses,substratesand/orenvironmentalgradients”(Comeretal.2003),provideavarietyofhabitatsessentialformaintainingspeciesdiversity(Noss1990).Ecologicalsystemdiversitymaystemfromthepresenceofdiversevegetationtypes,strongelevationgradients,ecotonaltransitionsamongbiometypes,and/orinterspersionofuniquewater-associatedcommunities,suchaswetlands,marshlands,meadows,andriparianzones.WefollowedmethodsinTheobaldetal.(2015)toderiveanestimateofecologicalsystemsdiversityatmultiplespatialscales,equivalenttoaveragesizes(1.2–115.8kmradii)ofHUC4-16watershedsandusingtheShannon-WeaverEquitabilityIndex.Weusedthe30-mresolutionUSGSGapEcologicalSystemsUnits(2011)asthebasisforcalculatingecosystemdiversityandassignednullvaluestoalldevelopedandinvasivespecieslandcovertypespriortorunningtheanalysis,sothattheselandswouldnotcontributetowardthediversitycalculation.NightSkyDarknessPlaceswithhighnightskydarknesshavelowlevelsoflightpollution,whichconfershighscenicvalue.Theabsenceofnightlightpollutionisalsolikelytoindicatelowlevelsofhumanactivityanddisturbanceintheseareas.Weusedanexistingdatasetrepresentingthepresenceofartificialnighttimelightsat740-mresolutionobservedviasatellite(NOAA2012).EcologicalIntactnessEcologicallyintactlandscapesarethosewithminimaltonoinfluencefromhumanactivitiesthataretherebyabletosupportnaturalevolutionaryandecologicalprocesses(Angermeier&Karr1994;Parrish

ConservationSciencePartners 17|P a g e

etal.2003).Theselandscapesareabletosupportandmaintaincommunitiesoforganismsthathavespeciescomposition,diversity,andfunctionalorganizationcomparabletothoseofnaturalhabitatswithinaregion(Parrishetal.2003).Degreeofhumanmodificationofalandscapethusrepresentstheinverseofecologicalintactness.Weusedanupdatedversion(Theobaldetal.2016)ofahumanmodificationmodelderivedat30-mresolution(Theobald2013),whichcharacterizestheintensityandfootprintofhumanmodificationacrosstheWest,basedon12parsimonioustypesofhumanactivities.LithologicalDiversityLithologicaldiversity,ordiversityofsoilparentmaterials,isafundamentaldriverofbothecologicalandevolutionaryprocessesthatgeneratespeciesdiversity(Lawleretal.2015).Areaswithhighlithologicaldiversityofferheterogeneousconditionstosupportdiversevegetationtypesthatthriveondifferentsubstrates.Lithologicaldiversityiscloselyrelatedtogeologicaldiversity(above),butthetwoindicatorsarederivedfromdifferentdatasets.Tocharacterizelithologicaldiversityweconvertedapublishedmapoflithologicalunits(1:5,000,000)(Soller&Reheis2004)toa270-mgridandcalculatedthenumberofunittypeswithina65,000-acremovingwindow.EcologicalConnectivityAreaswithhighecologicalconnectivityhavehighcapacitytofacilitatenaturalprocessessuchasdispersal,migration,andgeneflow(Dicksonetal.2016).Fundamentalprinciplesofsystematicconservationplanning(e.g.,Margules&Pressey2000)suggestthatanecologicallyfunctionalsystemofprotectedareas(PAs)needstobeinterconnected(DeFriesetal.2007;Cummingetal.2015),andmaintainingecologicalconnectivityisthemostfrequentlyrecommendedstrategyformaintainingbiodiversityinachangingclimate(Heller&Zavaleta2009).Wederivedamodeland270-mresolutionmapofecologicalflowamongexistingprotectedareaswithinthe11westernstatesinordertoquantifytheabilityofcurrentlyunprotectedareastoenhancepotentialconnectivityacrosstheexistingprotectedareasnetwork.Thisconnectivitymodelwasdesignedtoinformlanduseplanningandpolicyeffortsconcernedwiththemaintenanceofconnectivityprocesses(e.g.,migrationanddispersal,geneflow)formultipleterrestrialspeciessimultaneously.Specifically,weusedamodelofhumanmodification(Theobald2013)toestimatelandscaperesistance(seeKrosbyetal.2015)andconceptsfromelectroniccircuittheory(McRaeetal.2008)toestimatetheflow(asmeasuredbycurrentdensity)ofecologicalprocessesacrosstheregion.MammalandReptileSpeciesDiversityWeusedpublisheddataonmammalandreptilespeciesrichnesstoquantifyvertebratespeciesdiversity.ThesedataarebasedonoverlapamongspeciesrangemapsinthecontinentalU.S.representedat10-kmresolution,astabulatedbyJenkinsetal.(2013).ClimateResilienceAreaswithhighclimateresiliencearethosethatcontributetotheabilityofspeciestoadapttoclimatechangethroughbothlocalandlong-distancemovements.Climatevelocityrepresentsthespeedanddirectionaspeciesmustmigratetokeeppacewithshiftsinclimateconditionstowhichtheyaresuited,givenprojectedchangesinclimate(Loarieetal.2009).Lowvelocitiesindicatethattheclimateconditionscurrentlyoccupiedbyagivenspeciesareprojectedtooccurnearbyinthefuture,whereashighvelocitiesindicatethatthespecieswillhavetomigratelongerdistancesmorequicklytokeepupwithchangingclimate.Placeswithlowclimatevelocity,ifleftintact,mayfunctionasimportantstrongholdsofspeciesdiversityunderchangingclimate,andthushavehighclimateresilience.Weusedapublishedmodelofmultivariateclimatevelocity(Hamannetal.2015)derivedat1-kmresolutiontoquantifypotentialresiliencetoclimatechange.Theestimatewasbasedontheaveragesofmodel

ConservationSciencePartners 18|P a g e

projectionsfromanensembleof15CMIP5modelsandtheRepresentationConcentrationPathway(RCP)8.5scenario(IPCC:Pachaurietal.2014),andincluded11biologically-relevantclimatemetricsrelatedtochangesinbothtemperatureandprecipitationbetween1996and2055.PotentialforOil&GasDevelopmentThepotentialimpactsofoilandgasdevelopmentsonwildlifespeciesarewelldocumented(Northrup&Wittemyer2013).Inlightofthesepotentialimpacts,specialmanagementattentionwillbeneededtoavoidnegativeeffectsonsensitivewildlifespeciesandhabitats,whichmayincludehabitatlossorfragmentation,directmortalityfromvehicleorinfrastructurecollisions,changesinthefitnessofindividualsduetoanthropogenicdisturbancessuchasnoiseorlight,orincreasesinpredationmortality(Northrup&Wittemyer2013).Wecombinedtwoexistingdatasetstodevelopawest-widerepresentationofrelativeoilandgasresourcepotentialat1-kmresolutionbecausenocomprehensivedatasetexistedfortheentirestudyextent.Theseincluded1)apublishedpredictivemodelofrelativeoilandgasresourcepotentialthatwasconditionedonasuiteofgeophysicalvariablesandoilandgaswellproductiondata(Copelandetal.2009),and2)spatialdatafromtheEnergyPolicyandConservationAct(EPCA)PhaseI-IIIinventoriesofoilandgasresources(USDOIetal.2008),whichprovidescoarse-scaleestimatesoftotaloilandgasdensitieswithinspecificfocalbasinsandextrapolatesestimatestounstudiedbasins.Becausetheformerdatasetprovidedcontinuousandfiner-scaleddata,andbecausethismodelincludedavalidation,weusedthisdatasetpreferentially;however,itexcludedCaliforniaandWashington,aswellaspartsofNewMexico,Idaho,Montana,andOregon.Wesupplementedthesegaps,which,withtheexceptionofsomeareasinCaliforniaandNewMexico,hadlowoilandgasresourcepotential,usingtheEPCAdata.BecausetheEPCAdatacharacterizesoilandgaspotentialseparately,wegeneratedrastersurfacesforeachoftheseresourcesindividually,andaswiththesolardatasets,tookthemaximumvalueofthetwoateachpixeltorepresenttheresourcevalue(oilvsgas)thatwasgreatest,thenmax-normalizedtheresult.WevisuallycomparedtheCopelandetal.(2009)andcompositeEPCAdatasetsandverifiedthatareasofmaximumresourcepotentialwereconsistentbetweenthem.WethenreplacednullvaluesintheCopelandetal.(2009)datasetwiththecompositeEPCAdata(bothmax-normalizedonascaleof0to1)togenerateawall-to-wallestimatefortheentirestudyextent.Finally,weassignedavalueof0toopenwaters,developed(urban)landcovertypes(USGS2011),andthoseclassifiedasprotectedareas(IUCNI-IV,USGS2012),becausedevelopmentisunlikelytooccurintheseareas.MineralResourcePotentialExtractionofmineralresourceshasbothdirectandindirectimpactsonorganismsandtheirenvironments,includingphysicalalterationoflandform,drainage,andsoilconditions,aswellasalterationofchemicalconditionsthroughwasterunoff(Ratcliffe1974).WeusedmineralandmineoccurrencedatafromtheUSGSMineralsResourceDataSystem(USGS2005)tocharacterizemineralsresourcepotential.Wegeneratedabinaryrastersurfacebasedonthepresence/absenceofmineralsoccurrenceswithineach270mcellandsmoothedthedatabycalculatingafocalmeanbasedona2-cell(540m)circularradiusaroundeachoccurrence.Weassignedavalueof0toopenwaters,developed(urban)landcovertypes(USGS2011),andthoseclassifiedasprotectedareas(IUCNI-IV,USGS2012),becausedevelopmentisunlikelytooccurintheseareas.

ConservationSciencePartners 19|P a g e

AppendixB.IndicatorScoresforBearsEarsandOtherLargeNationalParksTableB1.ScoresreceivedbyBENMandsevennationalparksforeachof12ecologicalindicatorsbycomparingthemtoarandomsetofequivalently-sizedareaslocatedacrossthe11westernstates.Potentialscoresrangefrom0-100(100beinghighest).Ascoreof93foragivenindicatorindicatesthatthemeanvalueofthatindicatorinBENMoragivenparkwasgreaterthanorequaltothemeanvaluein93%ofequivalently-sizedrandomsamples.Notethatsufficientmineralandoilandgasresourcepotentialdatawerenotavailablefornationalparkssoscoresareomittedforthesevalues.Indicator BearsEars Arches Canyonlands Glacier GrandCanyon RockyMountain Yellowstone Yosemite

Size(millionacres) 1.35 0.08 0.33 1.01 1.20 0.27 2.20 0.75

EcologicalConnectivity 90.4 91.3 91.8 37.5 86.2 62.9 67.6 69.5

EcologicalIntactness 92.7 59.3 94.7 98.4 97.9 77.9 98.6 96.9

EcosystemTypeRarity 62.6 81.7 73.0 95.1 38.1 83.1 53.3 99.2

Rarity-weightedSpeciesRichness 69.6 90.5 63.0 52.3 81.8 65.1 31.7 88.1

LithologicalDiversity 45.2 69.2 58.4 93.0 50.5 24.7 86.8 14.0

VegetationDiversity 63.4 80.6 65.9 98.6 63.9 93.3 86.7 89.9

MammalDiversity 77.3 67.2 78.5 31.4 56.6 94.9 62.1 89.5

ReptileDiversity 69.9 68.7 68.3 3.3 78.6 1.5 3.7 36.8

NightSkyDarkness 95.3 33.0 81.6 85.0 73.2 46.0 93.2 90.2

ClimateResilience 44.7 61.3 54.7 46.0 92.2 70.0 59.6 99.4

MineralResourcePotential 68.0

Oil&GasResourcePotential 52.4