Sensitivity Analysisof the 2016 National

Budget

Policy Brief

by Prof. Godfred K. Bokpin

1. Introduction and the concept of

National Budget

he national Budget is an official Tdocument of a country which

states how the government plans to

raise revenue for its activities and how this

revenue will be allocated over a period of

time. It also reports on previous years'

performance and indicates uncompleted

projects to be carried forward into the

coming year. Any budget statement

therefore, should unequivocally spell out

the blue print of the nations upcoming

programmed activities.

The budget statement and economic policy

of the Government of Ghana for the 2016

financial year was presented to parliament thon Friday, 13 November 2015 by the

Minister of Finance Mr. Seth Terkper on the

authority of the President. This is in

accordance with Article 179 of the 1992

constitution. The Theme for the budget is

“consolidating progress towards a brighter

medium term”.

One major lookout in any budget statement

is special interventions and initiatives

directed towards youth development and

youth employment. Youth development is

essential because if the youth are not

they could turn out as the biggest threat to a

nation's security. However, due to the cross

sectional and multidimensional nature of

youth development programmes, it cannot be

s i tua ted wi th in only one Minis t ry,

Department or Agency. This seems to be the

main reason for the spread of youth

interventions and initiatives throughout the

2016 national budget with the lead ministry

being the Ministry of Youth and Sports. It

should be pointed out that of the total 29

Ministries, Commissions and Services cited

in the 2016 national budget, only 10 had

identifiable youth interventions mentioned.

development programmes, it cannot be

s i tua ted wi th in only one Minis t ry,

Department or Agency. This seems to be the

main reason for the spread of youth

interventions and initiatives throughout the

2016 national budget with the lead ministry

being the Ministry of Youth and Sports. It

should be pointed out that of the total 29

Ministries, Commissions and Services cited

in the 2016 national budget, only 10 had

identifiable youth interventions mentioned.

Also, a five year trend analysis by the Youth

Bridge Foundation in Ghana between the

period 2011 and 2015 indicated that a paltry

0.65% of the national budget was allocated to

the Ministry of Youth and Sports with a

chunk (70%) directed to sports (Ayee, 2016).

www.youthbridgefounda�on.orgYouthBridgeFounda�on@YouthBridge2+233 209016886

YBF/PB-072016/002

This is a quarterly publication of Youth Bridge Foundation, an

independent youth-focused think tank.

For subscription, address all correspondence to:

The Administrator, Youth Bridge Foundation,

P.O. Box CT 5543 Cantonments, Accra Ghana

Tel.: +233 209016886Email:�hq@youthbridgefoundation.org

Author: Professor Godfred A. Bokpin, BSc. Admin (Accounting), MPhil (Finance), PhD (Economics) Head, Department of Finance, Business School, University of Ghana

Youth

This edition is sponsored by the European Union.

2

YOUTH IN NATIONAL BUDGET POLICY BRIEF I

The remaining sections of this paper are organized into five

parts; 1. Summary of the 2015 budget on youth intervention

initiatives 2. An analysis of allocations for youth

development interventions in the 2016 national budget 3.

Appropriation bill of the various ministries that has youth

interventions 4. Conclusion 5.Trend analysis of allocations

to the Ministry of Youth and Sports 6.Summary of cost

centers and budget holders of youth development in the 2016

budget (MDAs).

2. Summary of 2015 national budget on youth

development interventions th

he 2015 national budget was presented on the 19

Tof November, 2014. Just like the current 2016

budget and other budgets presented in the past,

youth development initiatives are scattered throughout the

various ministries as identified in the budget.

The policy in favour of the youth development under the

Ministry of Youth and Sports is that; the “Ministry finalized

an Action Plan of the National Youth Policy which provides a

framework for the implementation of its priority areas for the

d e v e l o p m e n t a n d p r o g r e s s o f t h e y o u t h ” .

The Ministry also had the intention of organizing regional

dialogues for the youth and a national presidential youth

dialogue to encourage youth participation in decision

making. The Ministry of Local Government and Rural

Development had plans of training 3,000 youth in vocational

and technical skills. This is to equip the youth for future

employment and entrepreneurial roles. Another key

ministry that had plans for the youth is the Ministry of

Employment and Labour Relations. This ministry planned to

strengthen and revamp the Graduate Business Support

Scheme in order to provide entrepreneurial skills to 4,000

unemployed graduates. In addition, a total of 47,809 persons

are expected to be trained in the Ministry's vocational and

technical employable skills training programme. It is clear

that there was an overlap and duplication of functions

between the Ministry of Local Government and Rural

Development and the Ministry of Employment and Labour

relations on their intended vocational and technical skills

training programme.

3. Analysis of allocations for youth development interventions in the 2016 national budget

MINISTRY OF YOUTH AND SPORTS

he Ministry of Youth and Sports as the name

Tindicates is the lead Ministry for youth

development in Ghana. The essence of this

Ministry is to create an enabling environment for effective

youth and sports development and promotion through

policy formulation, implementation, coordination,

monitoring and evaluation. Since youth development cuts

across the various Ministries, Departments and Agencies,

it is just prudent for the Youth Ministry to coordinate and

liaise with these various bodies for effective delivery of its

core mandate.

Youth Development Programme

As per the 2016 national budget, there are only two

statements pertaining to youth development in Ghana

under the Ministry of Youth and Sports. The first

statement asserts that the Ministry has begun the

implementation of the National Youth Policy and Action

Plan and in 2016; the Ministry will carry out

dissemination on the policy and action plan to all relevant

stakeholders. The essence per the budget is to provide a

framework for systematic implementation of programmes

and activities.

www.youthbridgefounda�on.org

Skill Development

3www.youthbridgefounda�on.org

The second statement made in the 2016 budget in favour of

youth development is that, through the National Youth

Authority, the eleven Youth Leadership and Skills Training

Institutes will be renovated and 2,250 youth will be trained in

Leadership, Vocational and Technical Skills. Reporting on past

performance just for the sake of comparison, the ministry

indicated that the National Youth Authority has trained 1,646

youth in the eleven Youth Leadership and Skills Training

Institutes, out of which 200 youth will be writing the Technical

Vocational Education Training (TVET) Certificate

examination.

MINISTRY OF LOCAL GOVERNMENT AND RURAL

DEVELOPMENT

Local Level Development and Management Programme

The Department of Community Development under the

Ministry of Local Government and Rural Development has

plans of training 1,240 youth in technical and vocational

education. They also intend training 400 Technical Instructors

on Technical Vocational Education and Training (TVET)

reforms, upgrade Rural Development College (RDC) at Kwaso

in Ashanti Region to run programmes leading to the award of

BSc. Community Development and Social Protection and

revise the curricula of Community Development Vocational

and Technical Institutes (CDVTIs) to include Child and Family

Welfare for Child Protection at all levels. This policy if

implemented is laudable since it will provide the youth with

both employable and entrepreneurial skills.

MINISTRY OF FOOD AND AGRICULTURE

Food Security and Emergency Preparedness Programme

Government through the Ministry of Food and Agriculture per

the 2016 budget will establish Green House capacity building

and training centres in the country. The Green House capacity

building and training centres will be centres of excellence for

training farmers, youth, women and agricultural graduates in

commercial, modern greenhouse vegetable production. This

policy initiative though has plans for the youth, is vague and

lacks specifics.

Youth in Cocoa farming

Ghana being a predominantly agrarian economy and

government in its efforts to encourage the youth in

agriculture had a policy through COCOBOD initiative to

attract the youth into cocoa farming. So far a total of over

30,000 youth have been identified and supported to undertake

cocoa farming as a business. It is hopeful that this initiative

will continue in the foreseeable future.

MINISTRY OF TRADE AND INDUSTRY

Business Development and Promotion Programme

The only identifiable programme for the youth in the 2016

national budget, under the auspices of the Ministry of Trade

and Industry is that, Gratis Foundation will design, develop

and market a wide range of agro-processing plants for shea

butter; oil palm; groundnut; cassava; and a cocoa pod

breaker. GRATIS Foundation has as its mandate of providing

training in various engineering and processing fields to the

Ghanaian youth. Reporting on previous years' performance,

Gratis Foundation has trained 114 vulnerable persons in

various food processing and other income generating

activities, 23 in mechanical craft practice, 122 master

craftsmen in engineering, 157 in welding and fabrication and

40 in metal machining. Various agro-processing equipment

and spare parts for both local and West African markets to

support the activities of SMEs were manufactured.

M I N I S T RY O F TO U R I S M , C U LT U R E A N D

CREATIVE ARTS

Tourism Quality Assurance Programme

The Ghana Tourism Authority in 2016, will step-up

supervision, inspection and licensing of over 5,000 tourism

enterprises as well as develop standards for new tourism

enterprises including conference centres, SPAs, parks, health

farms, off-shore catering establishments, tour guides and

tourist attractions. Other interventions will include the

training of hospitality service providers and school leavers to

service the industry.

YOUTH IN NATIONAL BUDGET POLICY BRIEF I

Also, in 2016, the Ministry of Tourism, Culture and

Creative Arts will organise cultural exchange

programmes for entrepreneurs; creative artistes overseas;

National Festival of Arts and Culture (NAFAC); Regional

and National Drama Festivals for Schools and Colleges;

and KIDDAFEST International Youth Programme.

It stands out clear from the two paragraphs above that,

there isn't any clear youth development interventions on

the part of the Ministry of Tourism, Culture and Creative

Arts though this looks like a Ministry that should have

good and better policy initiatives for the youth.

MINISTRY OF COMMUNICATIONS

ICT Capacity Development Programme

The Kofi Annan Centre of Excellence in ICT (KACE) in

2016 plans to train 3,000 participants; in areas of software,

security and networking and also organise sandwich

programmes for tertiary students, executives and

corporate entities.

The Ministry of Communications continued to promote

the celebration of “Girls-in-ICT” programme to provide

the platform for as many girls as possible to interact with

mentors within the ICT sector to generate interest of girls

in technology, computer science, new communication

media and engineering. In 2015, 907 girls from public

schools in Volta Region were brought together and trained

in the use of ICT tools and equipment. The programme

created the opportunity for the girls to interact with the

mentors and to work together with other girls from other

districts in the Volta Region. There was also an awareness

creation on Child Online Protection (COP). In 2016, 900

girls will be trained in ICT programmes as part of Girls in

ICT Celebration to be held in Tamale. This is a

commendable initiative since its loaded with a specific

target and highly attainable based on past performance.

This Ministry has also entered into a partnership

agreement with the Republic of Mauritius to invest over

USD200m in the ICT Park at the Tema Free Zone Enclave

which when completed will create several thousands of

jobs for the youth.

Film and Television Production Training Programme

Finally, under the Ministry of Communication, the National Film

and Television Training Institute (NAFTI) also trained 385

students in film and television production, media and creative arts.

In 2016, NAFTI will train 178 students in film and television

production, other media and creative arts.

MINISTRY OF EDUCATION

Management and Administration Programme

The Ministry of Education in an attempt to enable teachers and

students have equal access to quality educational resources

nationwide will increase the number of learners from 597 in 2015

to 925 in 2016. Also, 400,000 audio-visual lessons on Video

Compact Disc (VCDs) will be produced as supplementary

teaching and learning materials for Junior High and Senior High

Schools.

Secondary Education Programme

The Ministry, in 2016, through the council for technical and

vocational education and training (COTVET) will expand the

trainer of trainers programme to include chief apprentices to

facilitate capacity building of 400,000 apprentices in the non-

formal sector. In addition, the ministry in consultation with

relevant stakeholders will continue to rebrand Technical and

Vocational Education and Training (TVET) with a focus on the

review of subject combinations offered in secondary technical

schools and technical institutions to facilitate progression of

technical students into tertiary institutions.

Also, 4,300 students will be provided with scholarships for the

2015/16 academic year under the Secondary Education

Improvement Project (SEIP).

Tertiary Education Programme

Finally, the Ministry of Education in its agenda to improve the

linkage between education and industry will in 2016, place 75,000

students from various tertiary institutions on industrial attachment

to equip them with first-hand experience in industry. This is an

improvement over the 63, 421 students placed last year. All these

activities are in the right direction of equipping the youth with

adequate skills training and experience for the labour market.

4www.youthbridgefounda�on.org

YOUTH IN NATIONAL BUDGET POLICY BRIEF I

MINISTRY OF EMPLOYMENT AND LABOUR

RELATIONS

The Ministry of employment and labour relations has as its

mandate to coordinate employment policies, manage

labour relation interventions across sectors and promote

decent work for national development. It also ensures that

children are removed from hazardous work as well as

regulate the payment of pensions and youth employment

interventions in the country. This presupposes that this

Ministry plays an essential role in youth development and

employment.

Job Creation and Development Programme

The Ministry of Employment and Labour Relations will in

2016 strengthen the Graduate Entrepreneurial Business

Support Scheme (GEBSS) to create more job opportunities

for young graduate entrepreneurs to establish and grow

their businesses.

Skills Development Programme

In 2016, the Ministry will train 15,453 youth in technical

and vocational skills, organize testing and certification for

43,320 candidates in vocational skills, ICT and secretary-

ship to meet emerging trends. A total of 750 persons will be

trained in management development skills to enhance their

productivity. This policy initiative is mainly to addres

s the skills mismatch challenges to national development.

MINISTRY OF GENDER, CHILDREN AND SOCIAL

PROTECTION

Gender Equality and Equity Programme

The Ministry of Gender, Children and Social Protection

doesn't really have any clear-cut plans for youth

development in the 2016 fiscal year as per the 2016 national

budget. The only identifiable initiative is to review the

Ghana National Plan of Action (GHANAP) on the UN

Resolution 1325 on Women in Peace and Security and

sensitize stakeholders including traditional authorities,

women groups, youth, educational institutions, media etc.

on the pillars of GHANAP 1325.

5www.youthbridgefounda�on.org

MINISTRY OF THE INTERIOR

Crime Management Programme

The Ministry of Interior in conjunction with the Prisons service

under its crime management initiative will in 2016, undertake

measures to ensure safe custody of prisoners and acquire

agricultural machinery to revamp the agricultural projects of the

service. The service will continue to provide skills training and

formal education for convicted prisoners and juveniles in

custody and provide welfare needs of prisoners. This is too

vague a statement and lacks substance to be hopeful of.

OTHER INITIATIVES

Job Creation/ Youth Employment Initiative

It seems like the best and most favourable youth policy was

reserved for the latter part of the 2016, national budget. The

national budget has a category for other initiatives and under the

job creation/Youth employment initiative category, it was

mentioned that the National Employment Policy was launched

with focus on the employment of youth, women and the

vulnerable. Subsequently, the Youth Employment Act, 2015

(Act 887) was passed with dedicated funding sources. Under the

Community Improvement Programme, a total of 100,000 youth

will be engaged in six different areas, namely:

· Waste and Sanitation;

· Security Services;

· Community Teaching Assistant;

· Community Health Assistant;

· Youth in Afforestation; and

· Youth in Apparel.

Though it is not too clear how government intends going about

this programme, it seems to carry a lot of weight for youth

development and employment and highly commendable.

In addition to the above statements, the Youth Employment

Agency will collaborate with the National Vocational Training

Institute (NVTI) to organise certificated courses for JHS/SHS

graduates in carpentry, masonry, tile laying, aluminium

fabrication and hairdressing. The programme will also target

young girls and women, including ''Kayayes''. The graduates

will be provided with the requisite tools to enable them start their

own businesses. Additionally, the Agency is collaborating with

the Ghana Federation of the Disabled to engage 1,000 physically

challenged persons in gainful employment.

YOUTH IN NATIONAL BUDGET POLICY BRIEF I

www.youthbridgefounda�on.org 6

Again, it should be mentioned that this initiative of targeting the

vulnerable and marginalized is a very exciting initiative on the

part of government. This has long term effects of driving out

many youth and physically challenged persons from the streets

of Ghana whilst boosting economic activities in the country.

4. Appropriation Bill of Ministries (Summary of

Expenditure by programme and Cost center)

he total budgeted government expenditure for 2016 is

TGH¢46,445.7 million including provisions made for

clearance of arrears and outstanding commitments

and GH¢43,505.1 million excluding the outstanding figure.

The total approved budgeted expenditure for the Youth and

Sports Ministry for the 2016 financial year is GH¢22,318,088

and out of this amount, only GH¢7,472,131 representing

33.48% has been allocated to youth capacity development. The

proportion of total government expenditure allocation

designated for this Ministry is a paltry 0.05% which is far lesser

than the average 0.65% for the period 2011-2015 as indicated

earlier (Ayee, 2016).

The Ministry of Employment and Labour Relations has plans of

spending GH¢5,224,910 (16%) on vocational skills training

and testing for the youth. The Ministry's total approved

budgeted expenditure is GH¢31,831,566 which corresponds to

0.07% of total government expenditure.

The assigned amount to the Ministry of Food and

Agriculture is GH¢59,776,323 which represents 0.14% of

total budgeted government expenditure whilst that of the

Ministry of Education alone is GH¢4,862,412,944 (11.2%)

of which GH¢37,041,067 (0.76%) will be assigned to non-

formal education and GH¢700,223 (0.014%) is designated

for the Council for Technical and Vocational Education and

Training. These are the two main youth intervention

initiatives under the Education Ministry besides the

industrial attachment placement initiative.

Finally, government intends spending GH¢47.93 million

(0.11%) to create jobs under the Youth Employment

Authority modules and to train the youth in technical and

vocational skills. This is clearly spelt out in the 2016

Citizens budget.

The expenditure amounts intended for youth development

and employments are clearly and woefully inadequate

when a whopping 24.11% of total government expenditure

is designated for interest payments.

The expenditure amounts intended for youth development

and employments are clearly and woefully inadequate

when a whopping 24.11% of total government expenditure

is designated for interest payments.

5: Trend Analysis of expenditure on Youth and Sports Ministry

Table 1

Year Total Budgeted

Expenditure

(excluding arrears

and outstanding)

Expenditure to

Ministry of

Youth and

Sports

(excluding IGF)

Expenditure for

Youth

development

Allocation

to Ministry

of Youth

and Sports

(%)

Allocation for

Youth

Development

(%)

2016 GH¢43,505.1million

GH¢22,318,088

GH¢7,472,131

0.05%

33.48%

2015 GH¢39,860.7million

GH¢35,906,402

GH¢8,753,735

0.09%

24.38%

2014 GH¢31,749.5million

GH¢35,685,666

GH¢ 8,483,734

0.11%

23.77%

2013 GH¢28,474.1million

GH¢53,639,101

GH¢13,776,750

0.19%

25.68%

2012 GH¢18,983.2million

GH¢ 31,165,965

0.16%

2011 GH¢12,670.8million

GH¢ 28,480,986

GH¢5,804,007

0.22%

20.38%

Source: Budget Statements and Author’s calculation

YOUTH IN NATIONAL BUDGET POLICY BRIEF I

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0.00

10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

50.00

60.00

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Alloca�ons to Ministry of

Youth and Sports

Alloca�ons for Youth

Development

Total Budgeted Government

Expenditure

Figure 1: Trend Analysis of Allocations to Youth development and Sports Ministry

The trend analysis in the chart indicates that, the total

budgeted government expenditure over the years from 2011 to

current year, 2016 has been on the increase. This is expected as

backed by public expenditure growth models; Wagner's

model, Peacock and Wiseman model and the Development

model by Musgrave and Rostow. These models simply

suggest that growth of public expenditure is related to the

pattern of economic growth and development in societies.

The total budgeted expenditure allocations made to the

Ministry of Youth and Sports however fluctuates over the

years. Whilst it is high in some years, it is low in some years.

For example, it increased between 2011 and 2013 and

decrease after 2013 through to 2016.

The allocations made by the Ministry of Youth and Sports

towards youth capacity development remains almost stagnant

over the years as depicted in the chart.

6. Summary and Conclusion

he highlight of youth intervention programmes in

Tthe 2015 national budget among the various

ministries was “training of the youth and

entrepreneurial capacity development”. This seems to run

through all the ministries. The 2016 national budget did not

really differ in policy initiative towards youth development

from the 2015 budget;

Table 2

It was also predominantly centered on training

programmes for the youth. Based on the allocations for

youth development in the 2016 national budget, it is

obvious and clear that youth development initiatives are

disjointed and need a coherent and coordinated effort

among the various ministries to come to fruition. There is an

overlap and duplication of functions between the Ministry

of Youth and Sports, Ministry of Employment and Labour

Relations, Ministry of Education and the Ministry of Local

Government and Rural Development on their technical and

vocational training programme for the youth.

Youth in “Galamsey” Mining

Youth Artisans

YOUTH IN NATIONAL BUDGET POLICY BRIEF I

Head Office:

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P. O. Box CT 5543 Cantonments, Accra-Ghana

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@YouthBridge2

Northern Regional Office:

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COST CENTERS AND BUDGET HOLDERS

Cost Centre as defined by CIMA is a “location, person or Aitem of equipment (or group of these) in respect of which costs may be ascertained and related to cost units”. A cost

centre is a responsibility centre that is accountable for cost only.

A Budget Holder is a person with the responsibility for implementing a budget. Budget holders use the budget to guide the implementation, checking before spending that items are budgeted for and allocating expenditure to appropriate budget lines. The following are the cost centers and budget holders for youth development in the 2016 national budget (MDAs).

* The first budget holder is the National Youth Authority, specifically, the Youth Leadership and Skills Training Institutes and Youth Employment Agency. They represent the budget holders under the Ministry of Youth and Sports.

* The next cost centre is the Department of Community Development under the Ministry of Local Government and Rural Development.

* COCOBOD under the Ministry of Food and Agriculture * GRATIS Foundation under the Ministry of Trade and

Industry * Ghana Tourism Authority under the Ministry of Tourism,

Culture and Creative Arts. * The Kofi Annan Centre of Excellence in ICT (KACE) and the

National Film and Television Training Institute (NAFTI) under the Ministry of Communications

* Council for Technical and Vocational Education and Training (COTVET) under the Ministry of Education

* The Ministry of Employment and Labour Relations * The Ministry of Gender, Children and Social Protection * Ministry of Interior

1. Ayee, J. R.A. (2016). Youth Development in Ghana: The debate over the decoupling of the Ministry of Youth and S p o r t s . Yo u t h B r i d g e Foundation Policy Brief. 042016/001

2. The 2015 Budget Statement and Economic Policy of the Government of Ghana

3. The 2016 Budget Statement and Economic Policy of the Government of Ghana

4. The 2016 Citizens' Budget

REFERENCES

YOUTH IN NATIONAL BUDGET POLICY BRIEF I