Copyright 2015No reproduction without permissionJuly 29-August
4, 2015 (n=2,223)Race Frozen in Place as National Direction Nears
Record LowCopyright 2015No reproduction without permissionVote
intention (i) Despite election call, race remains largely unchanged
(no party has shifted more than two points in either direction).
The Conservative Party relies heavily on the seniors vote. While
they are at 40 points with this group, they are under 29 points
with those under 65. The Conservative Party leads with men, but
falls to third place with women. In contrast, Liberal losses in
recent months have been concentrated among men; over the past eight
months, they have lost 14 points with men, but just 6 points with
women (indeed, they have actually gained ground with women in
recent weeks). They have also suffered serious losses with the
university vote.Copyright 2015No reproduction without
permissionVote intention (ii) The Liberals do quite well in Ontario
and Atlantic Canada (where they have broken the 40-point ceiling
for the first time in weeks), although they have collapsed in
Quebec. They also fare quite well in Manitoba where, although the
small sample sizes make a more meaningful analysis difficult, the
long-term trends suggest that the party is holding steady in the
province. Ontario has converged into a three-way race. While the
NDP have significantly improved their standing in this province
over the last year, it is the Conservatives who are the primary
beneficiaries in what has turned into a vote-splitting nightmare.
In Quebec, support for the Bloc Qubcois has receded to pre-Duceppe
levels. The NDP has surged into a commanding lead here and is
poised to nearly sweep the province.Copyright 2015No reproduction
without
permission18.923.139.630.830.632.43.97.76.04.1.91.9OtherNational
Results2011 Election ResultsQ. If a federal election were held
tomorrow, which party would you vote for?Note: These figures are
based on decided and leaning voters only; 8.0% of respondents say
they are undecided and 7.8% are ineligible to vote / skipped the
question.BASE: Canadians; July 29-August 4, 2015 (n=2,223), MOE +/-
2.1%, 19 times out of 20-0.3 +0.7 -1.4 +1.6-0.6(Change over July
22-28 poll below)Federal vote intentionCopyright 2015No
reproduction without permission010203040Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15
Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15Q. If a federal election were
held tomorrow, which party would you vote for?BASE: Canadians; July
29-August 4, 2015 (n=2,223), MOE +/- 2.1%, 19 times out of 2023.1
30.8 32.4 7.7 4.12OtherNote: These figures are based on decided and
leaning voters only; 8.0% of respondents say they are undecided and
7.8% are ineligible to vote / skipped the question.Tracking federal
vote intentionCopyright 2015No reproduction without permission23.1
30.8 32.4 7.7 4.12OtherAlberta Manitoba* Ontario Quebec Atlantic
Sask.* BCQ. If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party
would you vote for?BASE: Canadians; July 29-August 4, 2015
(n=2,223), MOE +/- 2.1%, 19 times out of
2017101727301545314928453320193534372127412916617575
51701020304050*Results for Saskatchewan/Manitoba should be
interpreted with caution due to small sample sizesVote intention by
regionCopyright 2015No reproduction without permission23.1 30.8
32.4 7.7 4.12OtherWomen 35-49 50-64 65+ MenQ. If a federal election
were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for?BASE: Canadians;
July 29-August 4, 2015 (n=2,223), MOE +/- 2.1%, 19 times out of
2018-34192821262126352724293240333235323625781366554554201020304050Gender
AgeVote intention by gender and ageCopyright 2015No reproduction
without permission010203040Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15
Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15Note: The data on federal vote intention are
based on decided and leaning voters only.BASE: Men; July 29-August
4, 2015 (n=1,021), MOE +/- 3.1%, 19 times out of 20OtherQ. If a
federal election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote
for?18.9 34.8 32.6 7.3 4.52Tracking vote intention: menCopyright
2015No reproduction without permission010203040Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15
Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15Q. If a federal election were
held tomorrow, which party would you vote for?Note: The data on
federal vote intention are based on decided and leaning voters
only.BASE: Women; July 29-August 4, 2015 (n=1,076), MOE +/- 3.0%,
19 times out of 2027.6 26.9 32.1 8.1 3.72OtherTracking vote
intention: womenCopyright 2015No reproduction without
permissionElection issues (i) Direction of country is nearing an
all-time low (lowest score so far this year). Yet, in a paradoxical
finding, the Conservative Party is seen ashaving the best plan for
improving the country, despite their perceived lack of success.
Opposition parties must solve this riddle quickly. Are voters not
connecting the economy to the incumbent? Best plan for individual
Canadians is much less clear and no party has a distinct advantage
here.Copyright 2015No reproduction without permissionElection
issues (ii) We also asked respondents which party was best poised
to address a number of different issues. Looking at what is
consistently ranked as the most important election issue the
economy responses almost perfectly mirror vote intention. Clear
majorities believe it is their party that is best positioned to
lead the economy (with the exception of Green Party supporters who
would seem to be more comfortable with the NDP taking charge). The
Green Party is a major contender on environmental issues, but
scores relatively poorly elsewhere, suggesting that many Canadians
view it as a one-issue party. The Green Partys best case is to
remind Canadians that environmental issues should not be orphaned
in the next Parliament. The NDP holds a solid advantage on social
issues and restoring middle class progress.Copyright 2015No
reproduction without permission53
53525450555256595755595654555558555755575552566147
474846504548444245414446454642454345434548443949
4950505143513040506070Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15
Jul-15 Aug-15Wrong direction Right directionQ. All things
considered, would you say the country is moving in the right
direction or the wrong direction?BASE: Canadians (half-sample);
July 29-August 4, 2015 (n=1,095), MOE +/- 3.0%, 19 times out of
20*Figures adjusted to exclude those who skipped the
question.Direction of country (adjusted*)Copyright 2015No
reproduction without permission2118263027265642781010Liberal
PartyConservative PartyNDPGreen PartyBloc QubcoisOtherSkipimproving
the country?you personally?Q. Which party has the best plan or
ideas forBASE: Canadians (third-sample each); July 29-August 4,
2015n=734, MOE +/- 3.6%, 19 times out of 20n=741, MOE +/- 3.6%, 19
times out of 20Party that presents best planCopyright 2015No
reproduction without
permission24211525262522303638263236254332377107Liberal Party
Conservative Party NDP Green Party Bloc Qubcois Otheraddress
economic issues (e.g., stimulating jobs & growth)?help restore
middle class progress?Q. Which party do you believe is best
positioned toBASE: Canadians (half-sample each); July 29-August 4,
2015n=1,131, MOE +/- 2.9%, 19 times out of 20n=1,092, MOE +/- 3.0%,
19 times out of 20n=1,092, MOE +/- 3.0%, 19 times out of 20n=1,131,
MOE +/- 2.9%, 19 times out of 20address social issues like health
care and education?address issues related to climate change and the
environment?*Figures adjusted to exclude those who skipped the
question.Positioning to deal with key issues (adjusted*)Copyright
2015No reproduction without permissionAdvice to labour movement (i)
The NDP vote might be contracting slightly. At current levels, the
NDP (with the weakened Liberals) may not be enough to prevent
another Harper government. With the union vote out of the equation,
Harper would be headingfor another majority. While strategic voting
is a divisive issue within the labour movement, right now, it
appears to be an essential ingredient of overall success in seeing
a change in government. In Ontario in particular, this is not
evident from the aggregatelevels, but it is clear when we look at
the preliminary riding-level data.Copyright 2015No reproduction
without permissionAdvice to labour movement (ii) Why are the
Conservatives so attractive to union members, particularly private
sector unions? Being six points short of the target of 20 per cent
support for the government, this now becomes a more pressing
concern as the formal campaign is now on. We recommend a
consolidated updated briefing and strategy session in the next two
weeks and we also recommend that we begin to identify the key
battleground ridings and that we begin to assemble more data for
those ridings.Copyright 2015No reproduction without permission25.8
34.9 27.5 6.73.22Other15.825.727.423.939.136.810.96.01 6.44.7219.8
26.0 38.2 9.1 2 5.2Q. If a federal election were held tomorrow,
which party would you vote for?Union members (public or
private)Other CanadiansPrivate union membersPublic union
membersBASE: Canadians; July 29-August 4, 2015 (n=2,223), MOE +/-
2.1%, 19 times out of 20Vote intention by union membership
