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Fast-Forward to 2025: New Mega Trends Transforming the World as We Know It
Macro to Micro Opportunities on Future Design, Businesses and Our Personal Lives
1. Introduction and Definition of Mega Trends
2. Key Insights into the Global Mega Trends
3. Conclusions
4. The Macro to Micro Approach
2
Agenda
What is a Mega Trend?
What is a Mega Trend?
Mega trends are transformative, global forces that define the
future world with their far reaching impact on business, societies,
economies, cultures and personal lives.
Urbanization – City as a Customer
Smart is the New Green
Social Trends
Connectivity and Convergence
Bricks and Clicks
Innovating to Zero
New Business Models: Value for Many
Beyond BRIC: The Next Game Changers
Future Infrastructure Development
Health, Wellness and Well Being
Future of Mobility
3
Top Mega Trends Covered By The Visionary Innovation Research Division
Future of Energy
4
News Headlines in 2025
Robots have entered our homes for personal use.
Sensory devices guide our everyday lives.
Mobile financial transactions are now in crypto-currencies.
Big data has entered the Zettabyte era.
3D printing is commonplace. 4D printing is gaining
mainstream acceptance .
High Speed Rail line to connect from London to
Beijing work begins
There are 6 million autonomous cars in Europe
and North America.
Summer Sale: Low-cost holidays in space.
Connectivity & Convergence
10 Connected Devices for Every Household by 2020
5 billion internet users by 2020
5 connected devices for every user by 2020
500 devices with unique digital IDs (Internet of things) per square kilometre by 2020
80 Billion Connected Devices Globally By 2020
Source: Frost & Sullivan, 2012
6
7 7
Source: Frost & Sullivan
Connected Home – 31% Connected Work –15% Connected City – 54%
• Home Automation
• Home Energy
• Home Health
• Home Entertainment
• Mobility - Mobile
email, Unified
Communication
• Mobile Working
• Enterprise Social
Networking
• eGovernance
• eCitizens
• Personal and Freight
Mobility
• E-learning
• Mobile banking
Sub Trend: Future Connected Living Ecosystem Connected life contains three important aspects of connected home, connected city,
and connected work
Connected Living Total Market: $730 Billion in 2020
8
QIVICON B2B Business Hub including partners from…
Health (E.g
Tunstall)
Multimedia (E.g
Samsung)
Automation (E.g Belkin)
Security (E.g Pax)
Energy EnBW, Solon
Appliances, electronics (A&E) Miele, Samsung
QIVICON CONNECTED HOME PLATFORM for consumers aggregating service from all partners.
Consumer Homes
B2B
B2B2C
Case Study: Connected Home’s B2B Platform Of Deutsche Telekom
Augmented Reality
Augmented Reality (AR) is defined as a real-time augmented view of the environment through digital data through use of text, sound, graphics, video, and navigation systems that increases user’s interactivity with the local environment . This extends business and mobility options, social interactions and experiences which has implications on personal lives, businesses and even day-to-day activities.
Reality Augmented Reality Augmented Virtuality Virtual World
9
Augmented Reality Impacting Different Personal Experiences
Source: Frost & Sullivan, 2012
10
11
Implication: Connectivity Is Pushing Convergence Connectivity will Accelerate Convergence of Industries, Products, Technologies and
Competition
INDUSTRIES
PRODUCTS
Car Unmanned Technology Autonomous Cars
TECHNOLOGIES
Building Technologies Smart Automation Smart Home Hubs
Space Industry Solar Industry Space Based Solar Power
1
3
2
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis Image Source:: ̀ Creative Commons and Dreamstime.
Impact of Connectivity and Convergence - “Virtual Design & Development Nirvana”
Shorter Design and Product Development Cycles Examples in Healthcare and Auto Industry
Digital Automotive Factory (VW Example)
Bio Simulation in Healthcare Can Save $200 to 300 million in
drug development
12
Bricks and Clicks
13
Future of Clicks in Retail Industry Global Online Retail Sales To Reach $4.3 Trillion By 2025 Accounting
for 19% of Total Retail
$11.8 Trillion
$23 Trillion
$18.7 Trillion
$11.25 Trillion
$4.3 Trillion
$0.55 Trillion
Online Sales Non-Online Sales
5%
95%
19%
81%
14
2011 2025
United States $1.32
Trillion
24%
18%
China $1.30
Trillion
United Kingdom $0.21
Trillion
Germany $0.09
Trillion
Japan $0.17
Trillion
26%
15%
10%
Era of Contraction
15
Bricks and Clicks: Impact of Bricks and Clicks on Store Formats Retail Formats Are Becoming Smaller and Unique With More Emphasis Being Placed on the
Concept and Urban Location of the Store
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
Pre-1970s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000 2010 2012 2013
Av
era
ge S
tore
Siz
e (
Sq
ft)
Grocery Stores
Convenience Stores
Supermarkets
Club Warehouses
Hypermarkets
Concept Stores
Express Stores
Era of Expansion
Source: RetailNet and Frost & Sullivan Analysis.
Evolution of Retail Formats, Global, 1970–2012
16
Urbanization Will Compel Retailers to Shrink Store Sizes Retailer Store Size to be 15-20% Less than the Current Average Store
Size by 2020
15%-20% smaller
Big-Box Small-Box
Examples of New Small Format Stores
Tesco Express eBay Pop Up Store
John Lewis Small Stores
17
Connectivity in Retail: Emerging Technologies Technology Converting Buyers into Multi-Channel Shoppers
Location-based services Augmented Reality
Body Scanners Selfridges
Motion Sensing
Holography
QR Coding
Foursquare Wal-Mart
Home Depot
Tesco Store Trek
Diesel
18
Fully Digital, Retail-Style Cyberstore
One-stop Experience for Entire Model Range
Gamification, Augmented Reality Offers Tailor-
made services
Specially Trained Dealer Personnel Interactivity
London Flagship Store
Highly personalized customer dialogue
Case Study: Audi City London - First Digital Car Showroom Example of Future Digital Car Showrooms that will be “Unlimited”, Personalised, Socially Connected
and Digitally Integrated
Smart is the New Green
20
Mega Trend :
Urbanisation - “City as a Customer”
21
Mega Cities Mega
Regions
Mega Corridor
22
Smart and Sustainable
Cities
Cities, and Not Countries, Will Drive Wealth Creation In the Future
Cities like Seoul account for 50% of the South Korea’s GDP; Budapest (Hungary) and Brussels (Belgium) each for roughly 45%. Top 4 Metropolitan Cities (Rhine-Rur (15% GDP), Munich, Frankfurt, Berlin) to account for 57% of Germany’s GDP by 2025 What are the Micro Implications? High Economic Power Hub and Spoke Business Model Transit oriented development New Mobility Solutions
City as a Customer
23
Case Study : How Siemens Aligns Itself to Mega Trends
Source : Siemens AG. All rights reserved
24
New mobility business models like car sharing
Cars designed around Cities and not cities
designed around cars
New urban vehicle technologies like Traffic
Jam Assist, Valet Parking
Connected Driving e.g. V2V and V2I
Digital Retail Stores
City Taxis
(perhaps Autonomous in future)
Case Study : City as A Customer – What does it mean to Car Industry?
25
Social Trends
27
Women Empowerment Demographic shifts are driving the empowerment of women
Female junior exec pay in
the UK is rising faster than male counterparts’
Earnings
There are 117 female directors of FTSE 100
companies
By 2020 over half of
millionaires in the UK will be female
Wealth Entrepreneurship
The number of women-owned businesses
increased by 59% in the US since 2000
Leadership 1 Education
Women are getting the
majority of higher education awards
Power
In Nordic countries
women could soon have equal political power
2 3
4 5 6
Women Dominate Social Media Women are the routers and amplifiers of the social web
127m active users
50% Female
90m active visitors
82% Female
So What?
Women are said to control
between 80% and 90% of key spending categories worldwide
Women are said to be more
likely than men to interact with and about brands online
Women in the UK are said to control
online purchasing (60%) and mobile purchasing (one in six
women compared to one in nine men)
845m active users
57% Female
150m active users
68% Female
Case Study : Women Drivers Certain societies are leading in the closing of gender parity
In the US from 2012 there were more women drivers than men
In the UK women licence holders are rising (whilst men are declining) and women are also driving more often and for longer
What does it mean to car companies
Personalised Vehicles •Driving dynamics
personalisation •Mood lighting
High Quality Materials •Non wearable materials •Sustainable and natural
fabric
Seamless Connectivity •Touchscreens and gesture
control •NFC enabled
•Integration with personal devices
Mega Trend :
Innovating to Zero
31
Snapshot of a “Zero Concept” World in 2020
Zero Emissions from Cars
Zero Accidents
Zero Breaches of
Security
Zero Crime Rates
Zero Waste/ Emissions
Complete Recyclability from
Households (Cradle to Cradle Concept)
Zero Defects and Zero
Faults
Carbon Neutral Factories and Retail Stores
Carbon Neutral Cities
Zero Corporate
Debts
Zero Emails
Source: Frost & Sullivan, 2012 32
Examples of “Innovating to Zero”
Source: Frost & Sullivan, 2012
Off-the-Grid Buildings - On-site Energy Harvest -
Use of Intelligent Systems - Increase use of renewable energy
Net Zero Hospitals -
- Energy efficient buildings - Greener Transport - Waste Reduction and
Waste Recycling - Increase use of Renewable
Energy
Cutting Edge IT -Infrastructure and Services -
that convert Ideas to implementation on real-time
Instant File Sharing - Networking Interfaces -
Zero Management Gaps -Zero Processing Time-
Zero Learning Gaps-
- In-house design, cutting, finishing
- Continuous, speedy deliveries
- Direct point-of-sale data collection,
- Daily analysis of product sales and customer feedback using software analytics
Zero faults and zero - errors in manufacturing
Highly Strict Quality - Control
- Strong Health and Safety Measures
- Safety Days (eg. Shell) - Life-Saving Rules within
facilities - Active safety systems in
vehicles that over ride drivers
Zero Energy Building
Zero Accidents Zero Defects
Carbon Neutral City
Zero Time Business
Incubation
Zero Design-To-Shelf (Retail)
33 Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.
Mega Trend :
New Business Models: Value for Many
34
New Business Models
Personalization and Customization
Personalization & Customization
Nike and BMW
Quirky .com
Co-Creation
One-off Experience
Pay as you go PAYD and
PAHYD Car Insurance
(BMW on Demand)
Source: Frost & Sullivan, 2012
35 Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.
Will Replace
“Value for Many”
“Value for Money”
Free Premium
Freemium
+
=
Source: Frost & Sullivan, 2012 36 Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.
Case Study: Volkswagen Group To Implement Modular Tool Kit Strategy To Design and Sell Same Cars in Global Markets With Local Personalisation
MQB - Modular Transverse Matrix (Number one
platform-2020) Development from platform strategies to modular tool
kits
Source: Volkswagen, Frost & Sullivan analysis
37
Conclusions
39
Some Key Trends that are Important and Not Discussed Today
Circular Economy Virtual Currency Future of Mobility Health, Wellness, and Wellbeing
3D/4D Printing Space Jam Deep Sea Mining Future of Energy (shale
gas)
Utilities of The Past
40
18TH CENTURY
Industrial Revolution
19TH CENTURY
Electricity
20TH CENTURY
Communication Industry
LATE 20TH CENTURY
The Internet 21st century
utilities?
21st Century Utilities: What is the Future ?
41
Big data ? Healthcare ?
Mobility ?
Media ?
Macro Micro
From Macro to Micro: Taking Mega Trends from Information to Strategy Implementation
Mega Trend Selected trends that impact your
business and markets
Sub Trend A sub-layer of trends that has a
wide ranging impact
Impact to Your Industry Visualising the roadmap of these critical forces through scenario-
building and macro economic forecasts
Impact on Future Product/ Technology
Analysis of Opportunities and Unmet Needs
To
42
Learn More About “New Mega Trends”
Published Book:
New Mega Trends Implications for our Future Lives
By Sarwant Singh Publisher: Palgrave Macmillan http://www.palgrave.com/products/title.aspx?pid=577423
Join Our Mega Trend Group On Mega Trends: Strategic Planning and Innovation Based on Frost & Sullivan Research
43
Follow Sarwant’s series on Mega Trends on Forbes.com http://www.forbes.com/sites/sarwantsingh/
Questions and Answers
44