Evolution of Solar PV Niche in Nigeria - Titilayo Soremi.pdf

8/10/2019 Evolution of Solar PV Niche in Nigeria - Titilayo Soremi.pdf

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EVOLUTION OF SOLAR PV NICHE IN NIGERIA

Candidate No:120078

Submitted on:1 September 2014


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Candidate No: 120078 2

SUMMARY

Use of climate-related technologies, such as solar photovoltaic (PV) is beneficial to climate change

mitigation, and also to, poverty alleviation. Based on this, this study draws from the Strategic

Niche Management framework, to examine and assess the dominant expectations driving the use

of solar PV in Nigeria, in order to determine why there is slow growth in the use of the technology

in the country. Three main expectations targeted at energy security, market development and,

climate change mitigation and sustainable development, were identified. The study also finds

that, varying levels of deficiency in collectivity, specificity, robustness and quality of the three

expectations, have contributed to slow growth in use of solar PV in Nigeria.


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5.3. Assessing Expectations 1, 2 and 3 34

CHAPTER SIX 39

Conclusion 39

APPENDICES 41

Appendix 1 - Sequence of events in use of solar PV in Nigeria and implemented projects 41

Appendix 2 - Interview questions 45

Appendix 3 - List of some solar PV projects implemented by ECN 46

Appendix 4 - Pictures of solar PV applications in Nigeria 47

Appendix 5 - List of Lagos-based solar PV companies listed by Posharp 50

BIBLIOGRAPHY 51


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LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS

ADP Agricultural Development Programme

CTCN Climate Technology Centre and Network

CTF Clean Technology Fund

DFFRI Directorate for Food, Roads and Rural Infrastructure

DG Director General

ECN Energy Commission of Nigeria

ECOWAS Economic Commission of West African States

ERC Energy Research Centre

FMWRRD Federal Ministry of Water Resources and Rural Development

GHG Greenhouse gas

ICEEED International Centre for Energy, Environment and Development

IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

kWp Kilowatt peak

kVA Kilo Volt Amperes

Mjm-2/day Megajoule per square metre and per day

NASENI National Agency for Science and Engineering Infrastructure

NCERD National Centre for Energy Research and Development

NEAZDP North East Arid Zone Development Programme

NEAZDP North East Arid Zone Development Programme

NGO Non-governmental organisation

NITEL Nigerian Telecommunications Limited

PRODA Project Development Institute

R&D Research and development

REMP Renewable Energy Master Plan

REP Renewable Energy Programme

SERC Sokoto Energy Research Centre


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SESN Solar Energy Society of Nigeria

SNM Strategic Niche Management

UN United Nations

UNDP United Nations Development Programme

UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

USAID United States Agency for International Development


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LIST OF FIGURES AND TABLES

Figure 1: Multiple Level Perspective 13

Figure 2: Perspective of expectations for analysis of the core elements of niche development

process 17

Figure 3: Map of Nigeria showing the thirty six states and six geo-political regions 20

Table 1: Distribution of solar PV companies across Nigeria as at 1998 24

Table 2: Other business ventures of Lagos-based solar PV companies 29

Table 3: Profile of Expectations 34


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PREFACE

My interest in researching on use of solar PV in Nigeria, is stemmed from the possibility of

addressing climate change, and at the same time meeting energy demands sustainably in

developing countries, through the use of renewable energy technologies. Based on review of

existing literature and contribution of two interviewees, the study presents a sequential portrayal

of the events, processes and projects related to promotion and use of solar PV in Nigeria. The

findings of the study have been analysed using the Strategic Niche Management framework. The

framework was applied by mapping, profiling and assessing dominant expectations held by actor-

networks involved in driving the use of solar PV within the country. Based on the analysis, the

study finds that limitations in the collectivity, specificity, robustness and quality of the

expectations have contributed to slow growth in use of solar PV in Nigeria

I am indebted to my supervisor, Rob Byrne, for helping me form specific, robust and high quality

expectations for my dissertation. These have materialised as my research questions, and they

directed my energy and resources during the course of the study. Using the words of your

colleague, you are a heroic supervisor.

I am grateful to my two interviewees who did not deem it a futile exercise to respond to my

questions, but found time out of their very busy schedule, to promptly respond to my requests

amidst disturbing developments in our much loved country of Nigeria.

To my amazing husband, Babatope, I will forever cherish your love, uncanny devotion and untold

generosity. Above all, to God Almighty, for leading me to study here at University of Sussex, I say,

thank you.

It is important to mention that although careful attention has been given to the process of

identifying sources of information, and collecting relevant reports, for the purpose of relaying the

historical account of the use of solar PV in Nigeria; the results presented in this study does notnecessarily represent an exhaustive sequence of all the events and processes that have transpired

in introducing and promoting solar PV in Nigeria.


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CHAPTER ONE

Introduction

According to a 2011 special report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), on

renewable energy sources and climate change mitigation, use of renewable energies can play a

major role in climate change mitigation, due to their low greenhouse gas (GHG) emitting

property. Venema and Ciss (2004) also highlight the possible contribution of renewable energies

to climate change adaptation through improvement of the adaptive capacity of communities.

Based on this potential, many regional and national policy documents on combating climate

change have given special attention to use of renewable energies. For example, the 2007 African

Union Declaration on Climate Change and Development in Africa highlights the Unions

commitment to strengthening research and development (R&D) in use of renewable energy, for

enhancing the continents resilience and ability to adapt to climate change (AU, 2007). Also, at

the national level, many countries from diverse continents include use of renewable energies in

their climate change mitigation plans (UNFCCC, 2013).

In Africa, the major renewable energies that are abundant across the continent are bioenergy,

wind energy and solar energy (Karekezi, 2002; Bugaje, 2006), and in a bid to harness these

resources, various technologies such as clean cookstoves, biodigesters, wind turbines and solar

photovoltaic (PV) have been developed or disseminated in African countries (Karekezi and Ranja,

1998; Kammen and Kirubi, 2008). According to Yadoo and Cruickshank (2012), renewable energy

technologies do not only hold the potential of addressing climate change, but can also contribute

to poverty alleviation. Considering that sub-Sahara Africa represents the poorest region in the

world (Suberu et al., 2013), use of renewable energy technologies therefore stands to be of

immense benefit to the sub-region.

Nigeria is located in sub-Sahara Africa and it is Africas most populous nation (Bugaje, 2006). Its

population growth rate is 2.8% per annum and it currently has a population of about 170million

people (Ohunakin, 2010; World Bank, 2012). However, 80% of this population live on less than

two dollars a day (World Bank, 2014). This peculiarity, puts Nigeria in a precarious position since

poor countries are said to be more vulnerable to climate change (Venema and Ciss, 2004), and a

countrys high population can increase its level of vulnerability to environmental hazards (Cutter

et al., 2003). The peculiarity also signals the need to address both climate change and poverty

challenges in the country. Based on the ability of renewable energy technologies to contribute to


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addressing climate change challenges and poverty alleviation, this study is focused on use of solar

PV, a renewable energy technology, in Nigeria.

Nigeria is a signatory to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)

and the Kyoto Protocol (Special Climate Change Unit, 2012a). The country has also submitted its

first and second national communication report to the UNFCCC (Federal Republic of Nigeria,

2003a; UNFCCC, 2014a). In both documents, use of solar PV was identified as a measure that will

be explored by the country in reducing its GHG emissions. In addition, due to the limited access to

electricity in the country with only 40% national grid penetration (Oyedepo, 2014), use of solar PV

has been identified as a suitable technology for improving access to electricity, and in turn,

contributing to poverty alleviation (Bugaje, 2006; Kaygusuz, 2012; Oyedepo, 2012).

Solar PV converts solar energy to electricity (Green, 2006). The technology was initially applied in

space satellite energy systems, but the oil crises of 1973 and 1979 facilitated its terrestrial

application for electricity generation (Green, 2004; Peters et al., 2012). In Nigeria, solar PV was

first used in the 1980s (ICEEED, 2006; Ilenikhena and Ezemonye, 2010), for providing electricity in

villages. Thereafter, many solar PV projects have been implemented in different parts of the

country (Ikuponisi, 2004; Ilenikhena and Ezemonye, 2010; Oyedepo, 2014).

Many literatures have attested to Nigeriasgeographical advantage in use of solar PV (Adurodija

et al., 1998; Sambo 2010; Ohunakin et al., 2014). The countrys sunshine hours of 4 to 7.5hrs/day

(Sambo, 2010), and average daily solar radiation ranging from 14.4 to 21.6MJm-2/day have been

noted to have the capacity to sufficiently meet domestic electricity demands (Mohammed et al.,

2013). Also, the Energy Commission of Nigeria (ECN), the apex government organ for formulation

and monitoring of energy policies has reiterated in many of its publications, the capability of solar

PV technology to meet the nations electricity demands (Sambo, 2005, 2010; Bala, 2012).

However, despite the acknowledged potentials of the technology and several efforts made at

promoting it, solar PV accounts for a negligible fraction of the countrys electricitymix (IEA, 2011).

This study investigates the processes and events involving the use of solar PV in Nigeria, with a

view to answering the research question - why is there slow growth in the use of solar PV in

Nigeria? By applying the Strategic Niche Management (SNM) theory, the study identifies three

dominant but divergent expectations driving the use of solar PV in Nigeria. It also argues that

there is a need for the convergence and re-formation of these expectations, in order to effectively

coordinate the promotion of solar PV technology in Nigeria, and maximize the potential of the

technology.


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The next chapter gives an overview of the theoretical framework used for this study i.e. the

Strategic Niche Management theory. The methodology employed for the study is described in

chapter three. Chapter four presents the results from investigating the historical account of use of

solar PV in Nigeria. These results are analyzed in chapter five by applying the SNM theory. The

final chapter summarises the findings from the analysis, gives recommendations on how Nigeria

can experience growth in use of solar PV technology and concludes the dissertation.


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CHAPTER TWO

Theoretical Framework: Strategic Niche Management (SNM)

SNM is a framework designed to facilitate the introduction and diffusion of radically new

sustainable technologies through implementation of societal experiments (Van Eijck and Romijn,

2008; Canils and Romijn, 2008a). Experiments in this context can be defined as initiatives that

embody a highly novel socio-technical configuration likely to lead to substantial sustainability

gains(Berkhout et al., 2010, cited in Smith and Raven, 2012: 1028). According to the SNM theory,

the activities involved in introducing the new technology should be carried out within a protective

space, so as to shield the new technologies from real-world selection pressures (Byrne, 2011:11).

This protective space is referred to as a niche (Schot and Geels, 2008; Canils and Romijn, 2008a;

Byrne, 2011).

SNM adopts a multi-level perspective to socio-technical transitions as depicted in Figure 1. The

niche is situated below the regime (i.e. the normal way of doing things) which comprises

common choice of technologies, infrastructure, regulations and institutions (Van Eijck and Romijn,

2008). Also, both the niche and the regime are situated beneath a landscape characterized by

material and non-material social factors that mostly change very slowly over time (Geels, 2002),

such as demographics, lifestyles and the economic system (Van Eijck and Romijn, 2008).

The objective of SNM is to facilitate societal embedding of the new sustainable technology, and

bring about a shift in the socio-technical regime (Schot and Geels, 2008; Byrne, 2011). Byrne

(2011) highlights the relevance of development and diffusion of institutions to structuring local

practices, and facilitating societal embedding. Institutions in this regard encompass legal

frameworks, technical regulations and cultural norms associated with use of the technology. He

also notes that institutionalisation i.e. embedding of the institutions can be achieved through

methods such as formal training and informal habituation1.

1informal habituation implies the psychological mechanism by which individuals acquire dispositions to

engage in previously adopted or acquired (rule-like) behaviour(Hodgson 2006: 18)


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Figure 1: Multiple Level Perspective.

Source:Geels (2002: 1261)

SNM recognizes that the new technology being introduced may be pitched against dominating

and possibly entrenched existing systems (Raven et al., 2010; Witkamp et al., 2011), and as such

require backing of appropriate actors, and conscientious and strategically envisioned processes.

As a result, SNM proposes three major processes for ensuring successful niche development (Schot

and Geels, 2008; Luo et al., 2013). These processes are as follows:

I.

Establishment of expectations: Expectations serve as compass for directing the efforts

and resources being committed to the niche development process. They also act as

central themes for actors to rally round and fuel their commitment (Hunt and De

Laurentis, 2014).

II. Building of social networks: This helps to facilitate involvement of actors, and ensure

commitment and provision of resources, and measures such as public subsidies and R&D

budgets, tax exemptions and reduction of import duties, (Van der Laak et al., 2007; Byrne,

2011) which may be required for the niche development process.

III. Learning process:The learning process in SNM is concerned with deriving lessons from

the societal experiments (Van der Laak et al., 2007). These lessons are generated from

interaction with the technology and its related processes, and they contribute to further

development of the technology (Canils and Romijn, 2008a). Lessons related to technical

functionality of the technology are referred to as first-order learning (Byrne, 2011), and

lessons that are related to the societal context in which the technology will be used are

referred to as second-order learning. SNM notes that while first-order learning is essential

for enhancing efficiency of the technology, and creating the appropriate environment for


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its functionality (Hoogma et al., 2002), it is second-order learning that ensures societal

embedding of the technology and its successful diffusion (Van der Laak et al., 2007; Byrne,

2011).

Due to the specification of the length of this dissertation, use of the SNM theory will be focused on

the key element in the first stage of a niche development process i.e. expectations. Expectations

can be said to be the background for the functions of the other major elements of the niche

development process (i.e. actor-networks and experiments). This is because they are meant to

serve as the underlying reason for involvement of actor-networks and implementation of

experiments. In addition, they provide directions for functioning of these two other elements. This

uniqueness has informed the decision to analyse the results from investigating the historical

account of use of solar PV in Nigeria from the perspective of expectations.

According to SNM scholars, and as highlighted by Berkout (2006), Schot and Geels (2008) and

Schilpzand et al. (2011), in order for expectations to lead to successful niche development, they

should be collective, robust, specific and of high-quality. These attributes are further discussed

below.

Collectivity:SNM scholars note that expectations can be held individually i.e. by a person or an

organisation, or collectively i.e. held and shared by a group of actors. They also cite articulation as

an important process in formation of collective expectations (Berkhout, 2006; Truffer et al., 2008;

Coenen et al., 2010).

Collective expectations have also been acknowledged by Berkhout (2006: 301) to be of more

relevance to niche development process because individual expectations are not likely to be

socially significant, even [when] held by a powerful social actor. Although Truffer et al. (2008)

also acknowledge that the socially-shared expectations are crucial to the evolution of new socio-

technical configurations, they allow some leeway for entrepreneurs, and note that submission to

social conformity can destroy the entrepreneurs very basis of innovation process. However, with

reference to several case studies on development and introduction of sustainable technologies, a

prominent observation is the involvement of more than one actor adopting a singular or set of

collective expectation(s) (Van der Laak et al., 2007; Eijck and Romijn, 2008; Thakore et al., 2013).

This observation may imply that there is a rare occurrence of an individual solely championing

development and introduction of a new sustainable technology. As a result, the statement

regarding the conditional necessity of collective expectations in the study by Truffer et al. (2008:


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1362) which is quoted below, might read better opening with a more definitive when, rather

than the conditional if.

If however, the relevant innovation processes cannot be controlled by an individual actoralone, then collective expectations may become an important source of coordination andlegitimization.

Specificity: According to Temmes et al. (2013), expectations have been found to become

increasingly specific in successful niches. Based on Hegger et al. (2007), organised platforms help

to foster social discourse among actor-networks, and help in moulding expectations into a specific

form that fits certain time and space-bounded reality.

Robustness:This refers to the number of actors that share a particular expectation (Schot and

Geels, 2008). A higher number of actors is a likely implication of increased access to funds and

other material resources and support, and enhanced capability to incorporate other actors who

can be beneficial to the niche development process.

Quality:Expectations that are informed by existing experiments are noted to be of higher quality

than others that give no credence to existing experiments (Schot and Geels, 2008). Expectations

are not intended to remain static and can be more productive when they undergo re-formation

i.e. change, as a result of the learning process from experimentation (Geels and Raven, 2006).

Byrne, 2011 explains that second-order learning can lead to progressive changes in expectationsand refinement of the activities of the actor-networks, so that their efforts can be channelled in

the appropriate direction that is suitable to their specific context.

With respect to these recommendations, the above stated attributes are used to assess the

expectations that have been driving the use of solar PV in Nigeria. The next chapter elaborates

further on how the SNM theory is operationalized for the purpose of this study.


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CHAPTER THREE

Methodology

The aim of this study is to examine why there has been a slow growth in use of solar PV in Nigeria

since the implementation of the earliest recorded solar PV project in the 1980s. To achieve this,

the study will make use of the SNM theoretical framework to analyse historical account of

promotion and use of solar PV within the country. The overarching research question and the sub

questions are stated below.

Research Question:

Why is there slow grow growth in the use of solar PV in Nigeria?

Research Sub-questions:

1.

What are the expectation dynamics in the use of solar PV in Nigeria?

2.

Which actor-networks are aligned with these expectations?

3. What are the experiments that have been planned and/or implemented by the actor-

networks, and how have expectations informed the choice of experiments?

The framing of the sub-questions is based on application of the SNM theory from the perspectiveof expectations. The questions are focused on exploring the relationships between expectations

and the other two core elements of the niche development process namely actor-networks and

experiments.

3.1. Review of Literature

In order to address the research question, information on use of solar PV in Nigeria was gathered

from varying sources including peer-reviewed journal articles, news reports, government policy

documents, commissioned reports of public and civil society organizations, and the internet. Upon

gathering the information, a progression of events reflecting relevant actors and their specific

actions was delineated. Also, several solar PV projects that have been implemented in the

country, their location and in some instances, the period of implementation were compiled. The

detailed sequence of relevant events and the compiled list of projects can be seen in Appendix 1.

3.2. Interviews


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Two interviews were conducted in order to get primary information that can substantiate the

findings from the review of literature, and give further details on recent developments. The

interview guide in Appendix 2 shows the outline of questions used in conducting the interviews.

The first interview was with a pioneer member of the Solar Energy Society of Nigeria (SESN) and a

former Director General (DG) of ECN. The second interview was with the managing director of a

Lagos-based solar PV business.

3.3. Operationalization of Strategic Niche Management Theory

As noted earlier, SNM theory is applied from the perspective of expectations. Based on this, the

first step in the analysis of the findings of the study involved mapping expectation dynamics, and

identifying the major expectations in use and promotion of solar PV in Nigeria. This was achieved

through examination of social discourse and recurrent topics in line with the proposition of

Konrad (2006) and Truffer et al. (2008) on identifying expectations of actor-networks.

Then, the expectations identified were profiled based on the approach presented in Figure 2, so as

to ascertain the actor-networks and activities aligned with each of the identified expectations.

Lastly, the profiled expectations were assessed based on SNMs recommendation on the

appropriate attributes of expectations (as stated in Chapter 3) i.e. collective, robust, specific and

high-quality.

In summary, analysing the findings of this study will involve i) mapping, ii) profiling and iii)

assessing the expectations driving the use of solar PV in Nigeria.

Figure 2: Perspective of expectations for analysis of the core elements of niche development

process.Source:Author


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A - relationship between expectations and actor-networks i.e. how actor groups align themselves with

different expectations.

B - relationship between expectations and experiments i.e. how different expectations lead to

implementation of different experiments and how they influence the performance of the experiments.

C - relationship between expectations and the interrelation of actor-networks and experiments i.e. how

expectations inform the choice of experiments implemented by actor networks.

Operationalising the SNM theory has necessitated the application of major SNM terms, for

representing different features associated with introduction and use of solar PV in Nigeria. As a

result, there is a need to explain what these terms portend. Solar PV is referred to as a

technological niche because its use presents the emergence of a new socio-technical configuration

for electricity generation in Nigeria; and the new configuration has to assume a position below

the existing electricity regimes in the country, pending its successful societal embedding and

diffusion across the country. The term expectations implies the benefits that can be derived from

use of solar PV, and the desired future state of affairs that can be realized. With reference to the

definition of experiments stated in the earlier chapter (i.e. initiatives that embody a highly novel

socio-technical configuration likely to lead to substantial sustainability gains), activities that

symbolize the facilitation of use of solar PV, though intended or unintended, are designated as

experiments. Based on this, experiments in this context are not limited to development or

deployment of solar PV technology, but include other initiatives such as product packaging, policy

processes and publications.

The next chapter gives a detailed account of the introduction and use of solar PV technology in

Nigeria, how the technology has been and is being promoted within the country, and the actors

that have played major roles in supporting its adoption.


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CHAPTER FOUR

Results: Historical Account of Use of Solar PV in Nigeria

This section presents the findings from literatures examined, and interviews conducted on the use

of solar PV in Nigeria. It puts together in a chronological order (as much as possible), the events,

projects and actors that have been involved in promotion and/or use of the technology.

4.1. Inauguration of Solar Energy Society of Nigeria

In March 1980, several academics (comprising scientists, engineers and technologists) gathered

together at the Project Development Institute (PRODA) in Enugu, in south-eastern Nigeria (Figure

3 shows the map of Nigeria with its thirty six states and six regions) to inaugurate the Solar

Energy Society of Nigeria (SESN, 2010a). The inauguration also doubled as an academicconference. It featured presentation of technical papers that led to publication of the Nigerian

Journal of Solar Energy. It also led to hosting of the annual National Solar Energy Forum by the

society (SESN, 2010a).

According to one of the pioneer members of the society, the inauguration of SESN was propelled

by events on the global scene (Interview, 2014a). The major energy issues dominating the

international scene at the time were, the oil crises of the 1970s (Geels and Raven, 2010;

Ilenikhena and Ezemonye, 2010; Smith et al., 2014), and addressing energy poverty in developing

countries (Gherab, 1981; UN General Assembly, 1981). These concerns made many governments

to increase their investments in R&D activities for terrestrial application of solar PV (Kobos et al.,

2006; Pinkse and Van den Buuse, 2012). In line with this international development, SESN was

primarily formed to serve as a platform for solar energy enthusiasts in certain universities and

polytechnics, to share ideas and showcase their R&D outputs (Interview, 2014a). In July 1980,

SESN was officially launched at an event that had in attendance, key government functionaries

from the south-eastern region (SESN, 2010a).


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energy commission in Nigeria in 1979, by facilitating the enactment of an Energy Commission Act

(Ilenikhena and Ezemonye, 2010; SESN, 2012b). ECOWAS is also reported to have sponsored a

solar PV project in Nigeria in 1987 (Adurodija et al., 1998) and Article 28.2c of ECOWAS treaty can

be said to reflect SESNs interest. The article states that, all member states are expected to:

promote the development of new and renewable energy particularly solar energy(emphasis added) in the framework of the policy of diversification of sources of energy(ECOWAS, 2007: 15).

4.3. Establishment of Energy Research Centres and Energy Commission of Nigeria

After the creation of SESN in 1980, the society was able to exert influence on governments

decisions and actions, in relations to energy-related issues in the country (SESN, 2010b). In 1982,

due to the advocacy efforts of the society, the federal government established and situatedenergy research centres (ERCs) at four universities. Two of the research centres, namely Sokoto

Energy Research Centre (SERC) situated at Usman Dan Fodiyo University, Sokoto; and National

Centre for Energy Research and Development (NCERD) situated at University of Nigeria, Nsukka

were charged with conducting R&D programs in new and renewable energies amongst other

responsibilities (SESN, 2010b; ECN, 2012b). Two additional ERCs have since been established

resulting in a total of six ERCs (Ilenikhena and Ezemonye, 2010) located across the six geo-political

zones. The two ERCs dedicated to research in renewable energy have recorded considerable

accomplishment with respect to building local capabilities in solar technology, and developing

applications for use of solar energy in local commercial and household activities (Ikuponisi, 2004;

Ilenikhena and Ezemonye, 2010). Some of their contributions are outlined below:

Sokoto Energy Research Centre (SERC), Usman Dan Fodiyo University, Sokoto

i.

development of solar water heating systems and installation of the system at Usman Dan

Fodiyo university teaching hospital

ii. design of solar cookers

National Centre for Energy Research and Development (NCERD), University of Nigeria, Nsukka

i. design of large scale natural circulation 2-tonne capacity solar rice dryer

ii. construction of solar chicken brooders

iii. thin film growth of silicon semiconductor material

In 1983, SESN also influenced the amendment of the 1979 Energy Commission Act to make

provision for a Technical Advisory Committee that included the society (SESN, 2010b; Policy and


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Legal Advocacy Centre, 2012). The Energy Commission of Nigeria was eventually established in

1988 (ECN, 2012a), commenced operations in 1989 and the six ERCs were placed under its

administration (ECN, 2012b; Interview, 2014a). Since then, the commission has been

spearheading the drive for use of solar PV in Nigeria, by embarking on demonstration projects and

designing favourable policies. Also, the position of DG of the commission has been filled by

members of SESN since its inception until 2013 (ECN and UNDP, 2005; ECN, 2013; Interview,

2014a).

4.4. Activities of ECN, Federal Government Agencies and State Governments

ECN has implemented over fifty solar PV projects across the country, in varying applications such

as solar street lightning, solar-powered borehole and solar-based rural electrification. However,

about 80% of these projects are based in the northern regions (ECN, 2012c). Detailed list of some

of ECNs projects and pictures depicting the various solar PV applications can be seen in

Appendices 3 and 4 respectively.

With regards to policy design, ECN drafted Nigerias first energy policy in 1993, reviewed it in

1996 and was able to get it approved by the federal government in April 2003 (Federal Republic of

Nigeria, 2003b; Sambo, 2010; Okpala, 2013). The policy notes that Nigeria shall aggressively

pursue the integration of solar energy into the nation's energy mix (Federal Republic of Nigeria,

2003b: 29), by using it as a complementary energy resource in the rural and urban areas. It also

outlines the specific strategies that will be adopted for enhancing local capabilities and

developing a market for solar energy technologies.

In November 2005, ECN with the support of United Nations Development Programme (UNDP),

and in collaboration with a local non-governmental organisation (NGO), International Centre for

Energy, Environment and Development (ICEEED), developed a Renewable Energy Master Plan

(REMP) for the country (ECN and UNDP, 2005). The plan is linked with other broad national policy

documents, and programmes like the National Energy Master Plan, and National Economic

Empowerment and Development Strategy. REMP also provides short, medium and long term

numerical targets for use of solar energy in the country. ECN has since submitted the plan to the

federal government, but the commission is still awaiting its approval (Sambo, 2005).

In 2006, the Federal Ministry of Power and Steel, in conjunction with ICEEED released the

Renewable Electricity Action Plan. The document focuses on use of renewable energy for

electricity generation, and highlights Nigeriaspotentials in use of solar PV (ICEEED, 2006). It also


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to schools, business centres and farms, also benefited from the financial support of the United

States Agency for International Development (USAID) and United States Department of Energy

(National Geographic, 2011; SELF, 2014).

Lagos state implemented a solar-based rural electrification project in Bishop Kodji community, in

2006 (National Geographic, 2011). Also, the offices of the state governments Electricity Board is

currently powered by solar PV (Lagos State Government, 2011). Other states that have supported

implementation of solar PV projects in their communities include Cross River, Ekiti and Nassarawa

states (Ilenikhena and Ezemonye, 2010; Interview, 2014a).

4.5. Commercial Activities

Adurodija et al. (1998: 137) note that, as far back as 1990, there has been considerable level of

awareness among industrialists and private people in Nigeria, on the use of solar PV for

provision of electricity.

In addition, the results of ECNs survey show that, forty-four private solar companies were

operating in Nigeria as at 1998 (ICEEED 2006). It also revealed that, these companies had carried

out two hundred and twenty one solar PV installations across the country, for clients from both

public and private sectors, between 1990 and 1998; and the installations summed up to 212kWp

module capacity (Oparaku, 2002; ICEEED 2006). As shown in Table 1, thirty of the forty-four

companies were based in Lagos state, in the south-western part of the country, where they were

mostly involved in installation of solar PV systems for provision of electricity to residential

buildings. Twelve of them were based in northern states (Kaduna, Kano, Jos, Bauchi, Borno,

Sokoto) where they mainly supplied and installed solar PV-powered refrigerators (for preserving

vaccines in health centres and clinics) and water pumps; while the remaining two companies were

based in Enugu and Rivers states, in the south-eastern region of the country (Oparaku, 2002;

ICEEED 2006).

Table 1:Distribution of Solar PV Companies across Nigeria as at 1998.

State Lagos Kaduna Kano Plateau Bauchi Borno Rivers Enugu Sokoto Total


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No of

Companies

30 6 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 44

Source:ICEEED (2006: 31)

In September 2011, another federal government agency, the National Agency for Science and

Engineering Infrastructure (NASENI), commissioned a solar panel manufacturing plant with

capacity of 7.5MW/year (PV Tech, 2011; NASENI, 2011a) for the purpose of business creation,

revenue generation, capacity building and ceding of technology (NASENI, 2011b: 7). The plant is

primarily involved in assembling parts of solar panels (the main processes in the plant are cell

sorting and testing, soldering, laminating, framing and packaging) and it is located in Karshi,

Abuja in the north central region. The plant has produced about 2,800 panels as at February 2014(Leadership Newspaper, 2014), and some of the panels have been used for providing electricity to

rural information technology centres setup by the National Information Technology Development

Agency (NASENI, 2011c; Oil Price, 2014). According to a February 2014 news report, NASENI is

planning to increase the plants level of production to 70MW/year, in order to maximize the

plants fullpotential (Leadership Newspaper, 2014).

In the past four years, there has been reported surge in solar PV business activities in Lagos state

(Interview, 2014b). Many of the states residents have purchased solar PV systems for the purpose

of serving as backup to the erratic supply of electricity from the grid (GP Inverters, 2014;

Interview, 2014b). Some of the solar PV companies have also setup business pages on social

media sites like Facebook where they advertise their products (Interview, 2014b), and companies

such as GP Inverters, Powertech Solar Energy and Solar and Inverter have been able to attract an

audience of over 90,000 people (i.e. Facebook likes) on the site (GP Inverters, 2014; Powertech

Solar Energy, 2014 and Solar and Inverter, 2014). In addition, these companies package their

products in line with the commonly known terms for sizes of diesel or petrol powered generators

sold in the country, such as 1kVA, 1.5kVA, 3kVA and 3.5kVA (Ajadi et al., 2012; Mbamali et al.,

2012).

According to the manager of one of the solar PV companies, his company carries out about two

installations in a day, and has recently opened an additional outlet within Lagos in order to meet

the increasing demands for their services (Interview, 2014b). He also mentioned that some major

manufacturers of solar PV equipments such as Amara Raja Group of Companies (an Indian firm)have established their presence in Lagos in order to ensure unhindered and prompt supply of solar


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PV equipments to local companies. This quote below from the manager best summarizes the

recent development in Lagos state:

We are experiencing a beautiful growth. The market is seriously growing. In two years,

the landscape will be completely transformed (Interview, 2014b).

4.6. Climate Change and Energy Sector Reform

In line with addressing the global challenge of climate change, use of renewable energy

technologies such as solar PV, and their transfer from developed to less developed countries have

been noted to be an important aspect of mitigating climate change (UNFCCC, 2014b). This

realization has also led to release of a special report on Methodological and Technological Issues

in Technology Transfer by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2000); and the

creation of the Technology Executive Committee and Climate Technology Centre and Network

(CTCN) by the UNFCCC (UNFCCC, 2014b).

Nigerias first and second National Communication to the UNFCCC refer to use of solar PV

technology as part of the countrys mitigation options, and in a bid to actualize this, the federal

government in 2010 established the Renewable Energy Programme (REP), under the auspice of

the Federal Ministry of Environment (REP, 2012a, 2012b; Abubakar, 2014). REP is being

implemented in partnership with state governments, multinationals, private companies and

international development partners such as United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP),

UNDP, World Bank and DFID (REP, 2012c). Through the programme, the government intends to

setup a 50MW solar PV farm project in Kaduna, and provide solar kits for hairdressing salons and

healthcare centres (REP, 2012b). REP has also recently secured approval for a $150 million

investment plan for solar PV development in northern Nigeria, from the Clean Technology Fund

(CTF)3(REP, 2012d).

In the same year REP was established, the Presidential Taskforce on Power (a team assigned to

engineer the reform of the power sector) released the Roadmap for Power Sector Reform, a

document that presents thefederal governments strategies for achieving stable electricity supply

in Nigeria (The Presidency, 2010). According to the document, the reform will not focus on using

solar PV due to its high capital costs and long lead times (The Presidency, 2010: 10), but will

3Clean Technology Fund (CTF) is a World Bank managed Climate Investment Fund (CIF) aimed at supporting

middle-income countries in scaling up the demonstration, deployment, and transfer of low carbon

technologies in renewable energy, energy efficiency, and sustainable transport (Climate Investment Funds,

2014).


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prioritize use of hydro, coal and natural gas for generation of electricity. However, in 2013, the

Taskforce released a revised version of the document which now states that, more attention will

be paid to solar energy ... in the medium and long term (The Presidency, 2013).

These findings on the historical account of the use of solar PV in Nigeria will be analysed in the

next chapter, by applying the SNM theory from the perspective of expectations.


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CHAPTER FIVE

Analysis and Discussion

As stated in Chapter 3, the analysis of the findings of this study will involve i) mapping expectation

dynamics, ii) profiling the expectations that will be identified and iii) assessing the expectations in

line with the provisions of the SNM theory.

5.1. Mapping Expectation Dynamics

The early wave of activities in promotion and use of solar PV in Nigeria was championed by SESN

and its activities were informed by the prevailing international discourse on energy issues at the

time i.e. challenges of oil crises and energy poverty. Based on literatures reflecting on these

concerns, the interventions undertaken by governments and other relevant bodies in response tothese challenges were expected to lead to less reliance on use of oil as a primary energy source,

and in turn, ensure security of energy supply (UN, 1981; Sovacool and Brown, 2010; Smith et al.,

2014). With respect to this, it can be said that, the expectation that steered the activities of SESN

in promoting use of solar PV in Nigeria was, security of energy supply.

Additional probable evidence of SESNs alignment with this international agenda can be seen in its

prominent role in establishment of ECN. According to the stated legal framework establishing

ECN, the Energy Commission Act, the functions of the commission include to:

promote the diversification of the energy resources through the development and optimalutilization of all [energy sources], including the introduction of new and alternative energyresources like solar, wind, biomass and nuclear energy (ECN, 2012d).

Also, ECN is described as the national focal point for energy (ECN, 2012b) in Nigeria, and this is in

line with the recommendations of the 1981 UN conference on New and Renewable Sources of

Energy, which held in Nairobi, Kenya. As part of the Nairobi Programme of Action, all

governments were urged to maintain and/or establish, as the case may be, national focal points

(UN General Assembly, 1981: 2-3).

The number of solar PV companies operating in Nigeria as shown in Table 1, and the setup of a

manufacturing plant by NASENI highlight the existence of a different activity route that is not

necessarily influenced by an international agenda, but focused primarily on home-grown business

transactions. Based on Table 1, 68.18% of solar PV companies were based in Lagos state, the

acclaimed commercial capital of Nigeria (Idowu et al., 2011; Ezeah and Roberts, 2014). Lagos

state residents are said to have limited access to reliable and constant electricity supply from the


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national grid (Apulu et al., 2011; Olorunfemi, 2013), and as a result of this, they make use of solar

PV as backup to the erratic grid electricity (Oparaku, 2002; Interview, 2014a).

The other services undertaken by the Lagos-based solar PV companies might also give an

overview of the primary line of business of these companies. With reference to an ECN-published

list of renewable energy companies in the country (ECN, 2012e), some of the companies listed

were engaged in sale and installation of inverters4, and oil and gas business. In addition, based on

the information provided by a business listing web service for renewable energy technologies,

Posharp (Posharp, 2014), and further verification of the authenticity of the information by visiting

the companies website (where available), a more recent list of Lagos-based solar PV businesses

was compiled and analyzed for the purpose of this study (detailed list of the companies can be

seen in Appendix 5). The result of this analysis is presented in Table 2 and it shows that about 70%

of the companies provide backup power systems (mainly inverters).

Table 2:Other business ventures of Lagos-based solar PV companies.

Venture No. of companies %

Other renewable technologies 3 9%

Inverters 14 41%

Information communication

technologies 2 6%Building materials 1 3%

None (only solar PV) 14 41%

Total 34

This commercial route of activities in use of solar PV, and also the general focus of many of the

solar PV companies, signal a market positioning for use of solar PV as a power backup system. As

such, the expectation from these activities can be said to be, market development of solar PV as

backup to grid electricity.

Another significant influence on use of solar PV in Nigeria is the global challenge of climate

change, and the relevance of use of technologies in mitigating climate change. In the context of

developing countries, there is often a recurring theme in the construction of the purpose for use of

technologies in climate change mitigation. A statement on UNFCCCs work on technology reads:

4Although inverters represent part of the components for setting up a solar PV system, they are also

commonly used across Nigeria in backup power systems (Otegbulu, 2010; Nwachukwu, 2014).


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A: Actor-Network

In many countries of the world, the major responses to addressing security of energy supply in the

1970s and early 1980s focused primarily on conducting research into alternative energy sources

(Jacobsson and Johnson, 2000; Jacobsson and Lauber, 2006; Pinkse and Van den Buuse, 2012),

and development or revision of energy policies (Ikenberry, 1986; Mohammed and Lee, 2006; Ong

et al., 2011). These scientific and political measures can be described as top-level strategies5

requiring high profile actors (i.e. researchers and governments).

This dynamic also played out in Nigeria with researchers from universities and polytechnics

aligning with the internationally-informed expectation of energy security, and coordinating their

activities via SESN. SESN was able to bring on board other high profile actors like the national

government, state governments and government agencies. It also involved private companies like

Siemens, by giving honorary awards, and accepting a few as corporate members of the society

(SESN, 2010c). The top-level strategic attribute of the expectation of security of energy supply can

be said to have led to involvement of high profile actor-network comprising academic researchers,

government and some private businesses.

B: Experiments

In a similar mode to the status of the actor-network, the activities and projects influenced by the

expectation comprised mainly of high profile activities, including advocacy, policy formulation andR&D, targeted at influencing government and making contribution to technological development.

Although the actor groups also ventured into other less high profile activities like deployment of

solar PV technology in specific locations, these projects however remained on a small scale and

some of the installations are no longer functional (Oparaku, 2002; National Geographic, 2011).

On the other hand, the actor groups recorded impressive success in their advocacy and policy

formulation efforts with establishment of the ERCs and ECN; and in their research efforts with

publication of the Nigerian Journal of Solar Energy. The influence of the strategic nature of this

expectation can thus be seen from the performance of the activities, as the high profile efforts

achieved tremendous success, but less strategy-focused activities like deployment of solar PV

systems did not record similar success.

C. Actor-network and Experiments

5Many countries view energy security as a strategic concern. In the United States of America (USA) and

United Kingdom, energy security concerns are addressed in their National Security Strategy documents

(Cabinet Office, 2008; Office of the President, 2010). Also, the 2002 European Security Strategy (ESS) tagged

A Secure Europe in a Better World (Quille, 2004) addresses energy security.


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The attendant high profile, strategic attribute of this expectation can be seen to reflect on the

type of actor-network aligned with it, and this also likely influenced their choice of activities,

which hinged more on high profile policy formulation and research.

Expectation 2: Market development of Solar PV as Backup to Grid Electricity

A: Actor Networks

The major actor groups aligned with this expectation are solar PV companies that are likely

interested in profit making. This actor group has also been able to attract another actor group of

users that purchase solar PV systems as backup to grid electricity. Based on the market focus of

the expectation, the actor-network aligned with it can be seen to include important actors crucial

to the commercial process involved in developing a product or service and its utilization by an end

user. As such, the actor-network aligned with this expectation comprises manufacturers, retailers,

installers and users.

B: Experiments

The thrust of the activities implemented under the expectation of market development of solar PV

as a backup power system can be said to be, facilitation of sale of solar PV systems, and likely

guarantee of profit making by solving a prevailing challenge in the society i.e. lack of consistent

supply of electricity. In addition, the solar PV companies have been able to apply a profit-drivenpricing model to deployment of solar PV systems (Interview, 2014a), which serves as an assurance

of profit and motivation to remain in the business.

C: Actor-network and Experiments

Terms such as profit, product, sale, service and purchase appear synonymous with this

expectation and these terms primarily connote activities that are underpinned by the prospect of

financial justification. As such, the supply side of the market development activities lean more to

choice of activities promising financial reward, while the user actor group lean more to thepromise of economic utility6i.e. satisfaction in use of the solar PV systems.

Expectation 3: Climate change mitigation and sustainable development

A: Actor-Network

6 Economic utility refers to satisfaction derived from use of a product or service (Grosse et al., 1998;

Morgeson et al., 2011).


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Promotion of solar PV technology used to be an activity confined to environmental groups,

particularly in the 1980s (Arquilla and Ronfeldt, 2001; Smith et al., 2014). However, with the

challenge of climate change becoming a front burner issue from the 1990s (Glantz, 2005;

Lorenzoni and Pidgeon, 2006), use of solar PV attracted more attention and the technology

became part of the newly termed class of climate technologies or climate-related technologies

(UNEP, 2013; UNFCCC, 2013). Due to the distinctive global characteristic of climate change and

the urgent need to mitigate climate change (King, 2004; Bichard and Kazmierczak, 2012), the

actor groups involved in driving the use of solar PV extended beyond environmentalists to include,

high profile, policy-influencing multilateral and unilateral actors such as the United Nations,

regional and national governments and private companies (UNEP, 2013; UNFCCC, 2013). Also,

because development is primarily targeted at improving living standards of the poor (Sen, 1998;

Anand and Sen, 2000), the sustainable development component of Expectation 3 attracts

grassroots-mobilizing actors such as NGOs.

This constitution of actor groups also plays out in Nigeria based on the line up of partners involved

with REP. As a result, the actor-network aligned with the expectation of climate change mitigation

and sustainable development can be said to comprise government agencies, NGOs, international

development partners and private companies.

B. Experiments

In Nigeria, most of the activities addressing climate change have been driven by events and

processes dominating the international scene. For example, the production of the first and second

National Communication documents to the UNFCCC was in accordance with the requirement of

the UNFCCC. The establishment of REP is also in fulfilment of the Federal Republic of Nigerias

obligation to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and as part

of African strategy on voluntary emission reduction (REP, 2012a: 1). In addition, the major

environment and energy focused NGO in Nigeria, ICEED, has primarily been involved with

internationally aligned activities, such as leading the Nigerian arm of the international NGOcoalition, Climate Action Network (CAN), and drafting the UNDP-sponsored Renewable Energy

Master Plan (ECN and UNDP, 2005).

C. Actor-network and Experiments

Based on the examples of experiments stated above, the choice of activities of actor-network

aligned with this expectation can be said to be more focused on international activities on climate


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change mitigation, and this may have led to giving less attention to the second component of the

expectation i.e. sustainable development. An outline of the functions of the department of climate

change does not include development-related activities (Special Climate Change Unit, 2012b).

Also, of all the seven registered UNFCCCs Clean Development Mechanism (CDM)7projects hosted

in Nigeria, only one is directly focused on poor people living in the country i.e. grassroots-inclined,

with most of the projects addressing reduction of gas flaring from oil fields (UNFCCC, 2014d).

Some of the (intended) activities of REP might contribute to the sustainable development

component particularly the Naija light solar electrification programmebut these activities seem

to still be in the pipeline (REP, 2012d).

The profiles of the three expectations as discussed above, are summarized in Table 3.

Table 3: Profile of Expectations.

Expectations

A

Actor-Network

B

Experiments

C

Choice of

Experiments

Expectation 1:

Security of Energy

Supply

Academic researchers

Government (national

and state governments

and agencies)

Private companies

R&D

Advocacy

Policy formulation

Technology

deployment

High profile

strategic activities

Expectation 2:

Market

development of

solar PV as backup

to grid electricity

Manufacturers

Retailers and installers

Users

Product packaging

Product pricing

Product promotion

Sale and installation

Financially oriented

activities

Expectation 3:

Climate change

mitigation and

sustainable

development

Government agencies

NGOs

International

development partners

Private companies

Strategy documents

REP

International coalition

Activities with

international

perspective

5.3. Assessing Expectations 1, 2 and 3

In this section, the profiled expectations will be assessed based on the recommendations by SNM

scholars. For the sake of brevity in making reference to the expectations, the three expectations

7CDM is a financial mechanism of the Kyoto Protocol under the UNFCCC that enables developed countries

meet their carbon emission reduction targets by implementing projects in developing countries that will

lead to reduction of carbon emissions (Streck, 2004).


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i.e. i) security of energy supply, ii) market development of solar PV as backup to grid electricity,

and iii) climate change mitigation and sustainable development, will be referred to as Expectation

1, Expectation 2 and Expectation 3 respectively.

Collectivity:Collectivisation of Expectation 1 through linking up individual activities of different

academics around the country and forming the SESN can be said to have contributed to the early

achievements of the society. In particular, articulation of the expectation may have influenced the

possible enlistment of other powerful actors (e.g. the national government and state

governments), and the subsequent success in setting up some of the necessary institutional

frameworks for introduction and use of solar PV in Nigeria. This accomplishment is in line with the

provision for successful niche development as stated by Van der Laak et al. (2007: 3217):

Articulating expectations is important to attract attention and resources as well as newactors, in particular when the technology is still in early development and functionalityand performance are still unclear.

Expectation 3 can also be termed collective because of the various actor groups aligned with it

and this may have contributed to REP being able to secure relevant support for its planned

activities and in particular the $150 million investment from CTF. Expectation 2 is still largely

independently driven and yet to emerge as a collective expectation and this may explain why

despite the record of substantial growth in specific locations due to individual efforts (Interview,2014b), this has not resulted in a country-wide progress.

Specificity:With the exception of Expectation 2, the other expectations can be seen to be both

internationally-informed and having the benefit of organised platforms (i.e. SESN and REP).

Although the major platform for Expectation 1, SESN, clearly outlines its aims and objectives

(SESN, 2010d), the points presented do not include any country-specific expectation that portrays

definitive next steps, in achieving the bigger utopian international agenda of energy security. REP

on its part provides a country-specific list of what it refers to as expected benefits to Nigerians

(REP, 2012e) and this list can be said to represent Schilpzand et al.s promises about future

benefits (2011: 13). There is no definitive expression of expectations by actor-network aligned

with Expectation 2 and this maybe as a result of the absence of a strong business association

platform8(Interview, 2014b).

8Some actors have fronted a solar PV business association platform but its weak membership strength and

very low participation rate makes it to be of little or no significance (Interview, 2014b).


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The non-specificity of Expectations 1 and 2 (which primarily underpinned most of the activities in

the country since 1980) may have contributed to the slow growth of use of solar PV in Nigeria.

Non-specificity of Expectation 1 might also explain why SESN continued operating in its business-

as-usual mode by mainly publishing the Nigerian Journal of Solar Energy and organising the

annual Nigeria National Solar Energy Forum (SESN, 2010e), even after international interest in the

expectation had begun to wane due to collapse of oil prices in mid 1980s (Cabraal et al., 1998;

Ramcharran, 2002; Smith et al., 2014). Furthermore, based on limited reference to the SESN in the

recent developments in solar PV activities in the country, non-specificity of expectations may have

contributed to the societys seeming diminished relevance and isolated activities.

Robustness:Expectations 3 and 2 can be considered to be the most and least robust respectively.

It is likely that the limited robustness of Expectation 2 may have contributed to concentration of

commercial deployment of solar PV in the commercial nerve centre of the country (see Table 1)

and probably leading to a slow growth in countrywide use of the technology.

The moderate robustness of Expectation 1 on the other hand can be said to have translated into a

foundational structure for use of solar PV in Nigeria which is now beneficial to the other two

expectations. For example, the practice of importation and distribution of solar PV equipments

across Nigeria is likely to have been initiated by ECN and the ERCs which were established due to

influence of SESN. Also, the implementation of demonstration projects by these organisations islikely to have given Nigerian residents a degree of familiarity with the solar PV technology thus

enhancing easy acceptance and use of the technology.

With respect to its high level of robustness, Expectation 3 can be said to hold the promise of

securing a higher degree of support and resources than experienced with Expectations 2 and 3

and actualization of the different pending activities may facilitate a country-wide increase in use

of solar PV.

Quality:Expectation 1 can be said to have been substantiated by ongoing projects since many of

its activities were informed by the experiments emerging on the international scene. For example,

the formation and nomenclature of SESN is related to that of other solar energy-focused

associations in many of the developed countries that sprang up in the 1970s (ISES, 2012).

Expectations 2 and 3 on the other hand seem to appear as newly-formed, freshly inspired

developments with little or no links to past or ongoing projects.

Based on the above assessment of the three expectations, it is likely that the existing meagre

share of solar PV in Nigerias electricity mix is due to the moderate collectivity, robustness and


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quality of Expectation 1. Also, the non-collectivity and lack of robustness of Expectation 2; lack of

specificity of Expectations 1 and 2; alongside low quality of Expectations 2 and 3 can be said to

have contributed to slow growth in use of solar PV in Nigeria.

The scenario of the three dominant expectations shows that the expectations sprang from

different bases, and are operationalized in almost completely different directions. As such, newly

emerged expectations do not have the benefit of second-order learning from previously

implemented projects. In addition, these expectations also seem to be divergent in purpose,

operations and results. A more appreciative scenario would have been if Expectation 2 emerged

as a result of refining Expectation 1, and if Expectation 3 had similar relationship with Expectation

2. However, the lack of reference to projects from Expectation 1 in both Expectations 2 and 3; and

lack of reference to projects from Expectation 2 in Expectation 3 gives an impression that that the

goal of diffusion of solar PV technology in Nigeria might be governed by divergent expectations,

and implemented in an unrelated, multi-directional approach.

It might be easy to say that Expectation 1 has outlived its purpose and should be discarded.

However, with energy security re-emerging as a major international concern, due to the issues of

terrorism and the finite nature of fossil fuels (Lloyd and Subbarao, 2009; Umbach, 2010), its

existing structures and networks may still be beneficial in promoting use of solar PV in Nigeria.

Also, lessons can be derived from its strategies and projects, and these can serve as beneficialinputs to actualisation of the other two expectations.

Expectation 3 can be said to be slightly linked to Expectation 1 based on its approach of involving

governments, international partners and demonstration projects (mostly in rural communities);

however the proponents of Expectation 1 do not seem to have any visible position or responsibility

within the framework setup for its actualisation. So, despite its moderate collectivity, specificity

and robustness; its limitation in quality might lead to improvident duplication of efforts. It may

however be that the actor-network aligned with Expectation 3 view Nigeria as a country lacking inexperience in use of solar PV technology, and as such, focus their efforts on similar demonstrative

activities of the actor-network aligned with Expectation 1.

Expectation 2 does not seem to exhibit many of the desirable attributes recommended by SNM

theory, but its existence and limited robustness has generated momentum in use of the

technology, in locations that may have been neglected by actor-networks aligned with

Expectations 1 and 3. The market approach of Expectation 2 (particularly, use of social media for

advertising) has also contributed to publicizing strategic ways, in which solar PV can be adapted


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to meet demand for electricity. As a result of this, the capabilities of solar PV technology are no

longer only known to communities where demonstration projects are domiciled, but this

knowledge now extends beyond the geographical boundary of the location of implemented

projects. In addition, Expectation 2 can be said to be aiding diffusion of the technology by

facilitating the progress from demonstration to commercialisation. However, a major drawback

to the achievement of Expectation 2 is that, it may be disenfranchising poor people that are

unable to afford the technology at market prices.

With respect to the above discussion, none of the three expectations can be said to be irrelevant

even in the context of recent times. There is therefore a need to synergize the three expectations

and/or probably present one of them as the primary dominant expectation, with the other two

expectations incorporated as subsets of the dominant expectation. Expectation 3 appears to hold

the promise of possibly shouldering the other two expectations, since commercialisation of solar

PV will be beneficial to successful diffusion of the technologies, and would lead to reduction in

GHG emissions. Also, due to the importance of energy supply to economic development and

poverty alleviation (Ogunlade et al., 2003), security of energy supply will benefit the sustainable

development component of Expectation 3. In addition, it is important to note that the newly re-

formed or re-defined expectation does not need to be static or linear, and the actor-network in

the country should make allowances for requisite changes that might be informed by

experimentation outcomes.

The next chapter gives recommendations on how the convergence of the three expectations can

be realised, and highlights the benefits Nigeria stands to gain upon the re-formation and

refinement of the expectations.


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CHAPTER SIX

Conclusion

This study presents the historical account of use of solar PV in Nigeria, based on results from

investigating diverse sources including literatures, media reports and key actors in the country. It

also makes use of the SNM theory, with particular emphasis on expectations, to assess why there

is slow growth in use of the technology in the country. The study finds three dominant

expectations with limited connections prevailing in the promotion and use of solar PV in Nigeria,

and identified them as i) security of energy supply, ii) market development of solar PV as backup

to grid electricity iii) climate change mitigation and sustainable development. It also notes that

the expectations exhibit varying degrees of deficiency in the recommended factors for building a

successful niche i.e. collectivity, specificity, robustness and quality; and that this may have

contributed to the slow growth in use of solar PV in Nigeria.

The existence of divergent expectations reflects a pressing need for convergence of the three

expectations in order to build a stable niche where actors' strategies, expectations, beliefs,

practices, outlooks, perceptions and views ... go in the same direction and become more specific

and consistent (Hoogma, 2000, cited in Canils and Romijn, 2008b: 615). Convergence of the

expectations can also facilitate synergy of the strong attributes of each of the expectations, and

lead to formation of collectivised expectation, that will result in successful niche building andexpansion process.

By realising convergence of the expectations, and ensuring actors operate in a distinct direction,

the federal government may choose to promptly approve the REMP, which provides for direct

supply of solar PV electricity to the grid. Also, international development partners will have a

platform to connect with, and possibly get involved with grassroots activities, rather than

primarily building cooperation with government-related organisations. In particular, with

government projects concentrated in the northern part of the country and mostly in rural areas,and with commercial activities concentrated in the south, convergence of expectations might help

eliminate the geographical divide in location of experiments, and facilitate even diffusion of the

technology across the country.

It is possible to get overly impressed with the entrepreneurial valour displayed by the key actors

aligned with Expectation 2, and then opt to have this expectation run its course independently.

However, it should be noted that this expectation holds the risk of being short-lived if the supply

of electricity from the grid becomes consistent and reliable. Also, the position of Nigeria as an oil


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exporting country should not deter the federal government and other relevant actors from

actively participating in conscientious formation of collectivised, convergent expectations for

driving the use of solar PV in the country because in the words of Grubb et al. (2014: 1):

Fossil fuels are finite. So too is the atmosphere. Sooner or later, energy systems have tochange.

Convergence of the three identified expectations can be facilitated through the use of foresight

approaches for reconstruction of expectations held by actor groups as exemplified in Truffer et al.

(2008), and also by conducting visioning exercises for stakeholders as noted by Canils and Romijn

(2008a). Following that, strategies for achieving the agreed expectations should be developed

which as much as possible delineates activities, responsibilities and timelines. It is important to

ensure that these strategies are built on what already exists in the country (i.e. projects, processes

and policies) and that lessons derived from implementing the strategies loop into further

refinement of the expectations.

There is need for further research into the process of solar PV niche development in Nigeria, and

in particular, analysis of other niche elements and external factors presented in SNM framework,

including the electricity regime and landscape in Nigeria. The current events and circumstances

relating to use of solar PV in Nigeria, also tend to present a viable opportunity for normative

application of SNM theory, and operationalization of the SNM competency kit for practitioners

presented by Raven et al. (2010). Accurate knowledge of contextual use of solar PV in Nigeria, and

conscientious application of SNM framework will likely help ensure people living across different

regions and at different income levels, have access to and make use of solar PV technology. This

approach may be explored by actor-networks to achieve increase in use of solar PV technology in

Nigeria, and ensure Nigerias development is on a sustainable path.


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APPENDICES

Appendix 1 - Sequence of events in use of solar PV in Nigeria and implemented projects

March 1980: Inaugural meeting of the Solar Energy Society of Nigeria (SESN) at Project

Development Institute (PRODA) Enugu. The meeting featured presentation of technical papers

and prompted the organization of an annual National Solar Energy Forum (NASEF). The pioneer

members of the Society consisted primarily of academics including -

i.

Professor A.O.E. Animalu (University of Nigeria, Nsukka)

ii. Professor C.C.O. Ezeilo (University of Nigeria, Nsukka)

iii. Professor G.O. Ezekwe (Projects Development Institute, Enugu)

iv.

Professor U.A. Akinsote (University of Lagos)

v. Professor R.I. Salawu (University of Lagos)

vi. Professor N.I. Ngoka (Obafemi Awolowo University, Ife)

vii.

Professor A.T. Sulaiman (Federal University of Technology, Yola)

July 1980:Official launch of the SESN. The ceremony involved government dignitaries namely - the

Deputy Governor of old Anambra State, Engr. A.S. Umenyi and Honourable Commissioner for

Technology, Imo State, Chief Oji O. Okereke.

1980: Launch of the first edition of the Nigerian Journal of Solar Energy by SESN in Lagos state.

August 1981: United Nations Conference on New and Renewable Sources of Energy, Nairobi

conference. The then President of Nigeria, Alhaji Shehu Shagari addressed the delegates at the

conference and expressed the need for developing countries to seize the opportunity in transitingfrom wood fuels to commercial energy forms to consider and investigate the possibilities of using

renewable energy in order to avoid a fossil fuel trap. He specially recommended solar energy as

one of the preferable renewable energy sources based on its level of supply on the continent.

May 1982: ECOWAS meeting of Heads of State of in Conakry. The delegates adopted a

declaration that each member state should establish an Energy Commission that will be charged

with the responsibility of coordinating and supervising all energy functions and activities within

the state.

1982: Establishment of four Energy Research Centres by the federal government. Two of the

Centres, Sokoto Energy Research Centre (SERC) and National Centre for Energy Research and

Development (NCERD), Nsukka were specially charged with conducting research and development

(R&D) programs in solar energy as part of their mandate.

1985:Implementation of the one of the earliest solar photovoltaic (PV) project in Nigeria, a 7kWp

village PV lighting project in Tunga-Buzu and Gotomo villages financed by Sokoto state

government.

1987: The SESN re-launches the Nigerian Journal of Solar Energy in Kano state in order to raise

funds for publication of outstanding volumes of the journal.


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1988: Establishment of the Energy Commission of Nigeria (ECN). The commission is the apex

government organ for the formulation of the most appropriate energy planning frameworks and

monitoring and evaluation of energy programs in the country.

1992: Establishment of the National Agency for Science and Engineering Infrastructure (NASENI)

by the federal government for facilitation of capital goods research and production and reverseengineering.

1993: ECN develops theNational Energy Policy which acknowledged the possibility of generating

electricity from solar PV and laid out strategies for promotion and actualization of the use of solar

electricity in Nigeria.

1996: Review of the National Energy Policy by an Inter-ministerial Committee.

1998: Energy Commission of Nigeria (ECN) sets up a National Committee to ascertain the level of

PV industry activity in Nigeria with a view to establishing Nigeriasmanufacturing capabilities for

PV modules and Balance of Systems Components (BOS).

2003: Approval of the National Energy Policy by the Federal government.

2005: Federal government embarks on privatisation of the energy sector and enacts the Electric

Power Sector Reform Act.

2006: Development of Renewable Energy Masterplan (REMP) for Nigeria with external support

from UNDP.

August 2010: Launch of the Roadmap for Power Sector Reform (RPSR) by President Goodluck

Jonathan. The policy document stated that solar energy would not be part of governments

prioritized energy sources for electricity generation in Nigeria due to factors such as high capital

costs and long lead times.

2010: Establishment of the Renewable Energy Programme by the Federal Ministry of

Environment. - http://renewableenergy.gov.ng/projects/

September 2011: Commencement of operation at the 7.5MW/year capacity Solar Panel

Manufacturing Plant by NASENI. The project was implemented by the Federal Government

through a joint venture with a (undisclosed) foreign partner.

August 2013: Revision of the 2010 Roadmap for Power Sector Reform (RPSR) Document to

incorporate governments revised intention to pay more attention to useof solar energy in the

countrys power sector.

Solar PV Projects in Nigeria:

1985: 7kWp village PV lighting in Tunga-Buzu and Gotomo villages financed by Sokoto state

government and implemented by Birin-Kebbi Polytechnic.

1987: Siemens installed two PV-powered microwave repeater stations under sponsorship of the

Economic Community of West Africa States (ECOWAS)


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1993: Installation of 7.2 kWp rural electrification system in Kwakwalawa village in Sokoto state by

the Sokoto energy research centre (SERC).

1994: 6.5 kW, is in Tunga-Benzu village in Kebbi State to provide energy for lighting and television

set operation, 7.5 kWp situated in Kwa-Kwalawa village in Sokoto State. Both commissioned in

1994, they were also executed by the Sokoto Energy Research Centre, and sponsored by theEnergy Commission of Nigeria.

1995: 7.5 kWp PV solar village located at Iheakpu-Akwa in Enugu State, was commissioned in

1995. This project was executed by the National Energy Research Centre, Nsukka.

No specified date: National centre for energy research and development (NCERD), Nsukka

installed a 1.5kWp capacity standby PV system to supplement power supply from electric

company at its premise.

No specified date: NCERD built a 2kWp capacity PV system at Iheakpu-Awka community in Enugu

State and a 2.85kWp solar PV plant at Hu-Mbauzo in Abia State.

No specified date: Design and fabrication of solar energy powered equipment/infrastructure by

members of the Solar Energy Society of Nigeria. The equipment/infrastructure include solar

cookers, solar heaters solar stills, solar dryers, improved wood-stoves, biogas digesters, passive

solar houses, solar refrigerators and air-conditioners, traffic lights and solar water supply systems.

No specified date: Solar cell production at Obafemi Awolowo University IIe-Ife

No specified date: Thin film Growth at the NCERD, Nsukka

No specified date: Solar-PV refrigerators produced by Solar Electric System of Jos

2001: Implementation of Village Electrification project in Jigawa State by Solar Electric Light Fund

SELF, an NGO based in USA and Jigawa State Government (funded by Japanese government) to

power essential services in 3 villages of Jigawa State. The project provides electricity to power

health clinics, schools, street lights, mosques, homes, micro-enterprise centers, and electric water

pumps for drinking and irrigation.

April 2003: Sixteen solar powered water projects commissioned in Nassarawa State.

2004: Cross River State government also used solar energy to generate and supply electricity toOkundi community, Obude cattle ranch and Kanyiang game reserve in Boki local government

2006:Implementation of Bishop Kodji Solar PV project in Lagos. Project was likely financed

through a Rural Electrification Fund from the World Bank.

Unspecified date:Lagos State Electricity Board is currently running its office on solar and is

looking at the possibility of how public schools can benefit from the solar lights

March 2, 2013: Establishment of the solar-powered floating school at Makoko, Lagos by NL (a

private architectural firm based in the Netherlands but headed by a Nigerian) with support of

United Nations Development Programme/Federal Ministry of Environment (AAP) and Heinrich BllFoundation


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2013- NASENI supplies solar panels to NITDA from its Karshi solar plant for powering NITDAs

Rural Information Technology Centres (RI

Documents

Evolution of Solar PV Niche in Nigeria - Titilayo Soremi.pdf