1

GPE Pre-Board Meeting, June 11, 2019Stockholm, Sweden

Evidence on GPEWhat have we learned?

2

Presentation outline

Overview of GPE’s Theory of Change

Progress on GPE’s Goals to provide context to GPE’s work

Progress on GPE’s operational model

Drawing on evidence to date

2

GPE’s Theory of Change

3 strategic goals

3 country-level objectives

2 global-level objectives

4

Evidence available on GPE

Corporate Reports

Results Report - annual Portfolio Review - annual Education Sector Plan

Implementation Grants Completion Reports Synthesis Review

Initial Summary of Variable Tranche

Independent Reports

Country-Level Evaluations Education Sector Plan Development

Grants Desk Study Civil Society Education Fund

Evaluation DCP Pre-Board Meeting Evaluation Synthesis Report on Donor Reviews of

GPE Effective Partnership Review

5

Country level evaluations

Developing Country Partners 67

Summative completed to date 10

Prospective evaluations 8

Summative upcoming 10

Fragile or conflict-affected 15

28 countries

15 fragile or conflict-affected

68% primary school age children

62% grant value

6

Main takeawaysAchievements

Some progress on learning, quality of assessments Improved completion rates and parity Improved quality of education plans Increased inclusiveness of local education groups Variable tranche promising for sector dialog and

priorities High GPE grant support for fragile and conflict affected

countries More GPE specific focus on gender, teachers, and data

Challenges

Low learning Number of out of school children Significant education disparities within countries Teachers and data Plan implementation, monitoring, and lesson

learning Effectiveness of country-level partnership Significant differences across countries

7

Goal 1: Improved and more equitable learning outcomesGoal 2: Increased equity, gender equality, and inclusion

Progress on goals 1 and 2 but varied across countries and by gender and socioeconomic factors

Changes in goals 1 and 2 do not yet demonstrate the effects of the current GPE efforts and current funding model

Most data on strategic goals reflect policies/implementation that predate GPE2020

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Low learning, quality of learning assessments improved

Learning improved in 16 out of 23 countries

Learning low and varied across countries

Quality of learning assessment systems improved

Share of primary completers meeting minimum proficiency levels in mathematics and reading

100.0 75.0 50.0 25.0 0.0 25.0 50.0 75.0 100.0

Niger/PASEC 2014Mali/PAL Network 2016

Chad/PASEC 2014Gambia/NLA 2010

Dominica/NLA 2012Congo/PASEC 2006

Kyrgyzstan/NLA 2014Nigeria/NLA 2011

Côte d'Ivoire/PASEC 2014Cameroon/PASEC 2014

Togo/PASEC 2014Zambia/SACMEQ 2006

Benin/PASEC 2014Pakistan/PAL Network 2016

Malawi/NLA 2012Uganda/NLA 2015

Burkina Faso/PASEC 2014Senegal/PASEC 2014

Grenada/NLA 2015Ghana/NLA 2016

Comoros/PASEC 2006Lesotho/SACMEQ 2006

Burundi/PASEC 2014Mozambique/SACMEQ 2006

Nicaragua/LLECE 2013Zimbabwe/SACMEQ 2006Kenya/PAL Network 2015

Honduras/NLA 2016DRC/PASEC 2011

Madagascar/PASEC 2006Tanzania/SACMEQ 2006

Viet Nam/NLA 2011Albania/NLA 2016

Average

Mathematics Reading

9

Overall progress on equity and gender equality, but countries face unique challenges

84.5%90.3%

20172010

58.3%68.8%

20172010

Increasing primary age population – 14 countries

Decreasing primary age population – 3 countries

Example: Primary completion rate decreased in 17 countries Steady overall improvement in

completion rates, overall equity, gender parity

Number of out of school children remains steady

Large variations across countries

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Several countries outside GPE gender parity completion threshold

0.66

0.67

0.75

0.81

0.82

0.83

0.85

0.88

1.14

1.20

1.22

1.29

CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC

CHAD

GUINEA

YEMEN, REP.

CÔTE D'IVOIRE

PAKISTAN

LIBERIA

NIGER

BURUNDI

SENEGAL

LESOTHO

RWANDA

MO

RE B

OYS

THAN

GIR

LSM

ORE

GIR

LS T

HAN

BOY

S

Primary completion parity index

0.400.63

0.660.710.720.740.750.75

0.780.82

0.860.88

1.121.121.131.131.131.141.171.17

1.201.201.211.22

1.381.43

CHADCENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC

GUINEATOGO

CÔTE D'IVOIRENIGER

YEMEN, REP.LIBERIA

BENINMALI

PAKISTANZAMBIA

MYANMARBHUTANSENEGAL

PHILIPPINESTANZANIABURUNDI

CABO VERDEWEST BANK AND GAZA

HONDURASSAO TOME AND PRINCIPE

BANGLADESHTUNISIA

MADAGASCARLESOTHO

MO

RE B

OYS

THA

N G

IRLS

M

ORE

GIR

LS T

HAN

BO

YS

Lower secondary completion parity index

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Multiple factors contribute to inequities: girls’ completion rate affected by socioeconomic status

Source: UIS; N=57 countries

0

20

40

60

80

100

Guin

ea-B

issau

(201

4)So

uth

Suda

n (2

010)

Libe

ria (2

013)

Chad

(201

4)Bu

rkin

a Fa

so (2

010)

CAR(

2010

)N

iger

(201

2)Cô

te d

'Ivoi

re (2

016)

Afgh

anist

an (2

015)

Beni

n (2

014)

Rwan

da (2

015)

Buru

ndi (

2017

)M

ali (

2015

)U

gand

a (2

016)

Guin

ea (2

016)

Mad

agas

car (

2009

)Gh

ana

(201

5)Se

nega

l (20

17)

Ethi

opia

(201

6)To

go (2

014)

Mal

awi (

2016

)M

ozam

biqu

e (2

011)

Haiti

(201

7)Ga

mbi

a (2

013)

Mau

ritan

ia (2

015)

Yem

en (2

013)

Sier

ra L

eone

(201

7)Bh

utan

(201

0)Es

wat

ini (

2014

)Le

soth

o (2

014)

Bang

lade

sh (2

014)

Cam

bodi

a (2

014)

Nic

arag

ua (2

014)

Paki

stan

(201

2)DR

C (2

013)

Tanz

ania

(201

5)Va

nuat

u (2

007)

Zam

bia

(201

3)Co

mor

os (2

012)

Sao

Tom

e an

d Pr

inci

pe (2

014)

Suda

n (2

014)

Hond

uras

(201

6)M

yanm

ar (2

016)

Keny

a (2

014)

Nig

eria

(201

6)La

o PD

R (2

012)

Nep

al (2

016)

Viet

Nam

(201

4)Zi

mba

bwe

(201

5)Ta

jikist

an (2

017)

Tim

or-L

este

(201

5/20

16)

Cam

eroo

n (2

014)

Cong

o (2

015)

Kyrg

yzst

an (2

014)

Alba

nia

(200

9)Gu

yana

(201

4)U

zbek

istan

(200

6)

Girls Primary Completion Rate

Urban, richest quintile (%) Rural, poorest quintile (%)

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GPE grants more focused on gender, but better measurement of outcomes required

More current GPE grants focus on gender than did closed grants

GPE measures gender parity but does not assess and report on gender equality systematically

Among closed grants between 2016-2018, gender not included in project development outcome

Evaluations and reviews underscore need for a focused approach to results

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Goal 3: Effective and efficient education systems delivering quality education services for all

Goal 3 is directly affected by GPE processes and inputs, although with time lags

Key indicators include domestic financing, internal efficiency coefficient, pupil-to-trained teacher ratio, and reporting on country-level data systems

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Domestic financing increased but insufficient

Domestic education financing increased

Proportion of domestic financing below target

Financing insufficient for plan objectives

Education spending inefficient

Financing decisions affected by several country factors

GPE consistent in advocating increase

50.5

67.569.6

40.0

45.0

50.0

55.0

60.0

65.0

70.0

75.0

2010 2015 2017

BILL

ION

$U

SYEAR

OVERALL GOVERNMENT EDUCATION EXPENDITURE IN BILLION USD 65 GPE COUNTRIES

(2010 DOLLARS)

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Need for continued attention on teachers

Some progress in increasing trained teachers and improving PTTR

Less effort on teacher allocation and deployment

More GPE grants address teacher training than before

7718

1110

666544

-6-8

-10-13

-20-31

-37-80

-102-104

Chad[131]Vanuatu[34]

Eritrea[73]Benin[75]

Mongolia[33]Cambodia[34]

Côte d'Ivoire[23]Kenya[32]

El Salvador[29]Moldova[15]

Niger[30]Nepal[23]

Myanmar[19]Cabo Verde[61]

Cameroon[31]Maldives[18]

Kyrgyz Republic[25]Ghana[75]

Senegal[60]Tanzania[208]

Change in the number of pupils per trained teacher (2010-2017)

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Data reporting to UIS improved slightly but below thresholdGPE support to EMIS and LAS has improved

Proportion of GPE countries reporting at least 10 out of 12 key education indicators to UIS

30

3432 32

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2015(2012/13)

2016(2013/14)

2017(2014/15)

2018(2015/16)

Perc

enta

ge

Actual (Overall) Actual (FCAC)

For Overall: n=61; FCAC: n=28

38

83 92 94

34

77

96 100

0

20

40

60

80

100

2015(n=53)

2016(n=54)

2017(n=48)

2018(n=34)

Perc

enta

ge

Actual (Overall) Actual (FCAC)

Proportion of grants supporting EMIS/LAS

17

Country-level objectivesProgress with GPE’s Operational Model

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88% (14)

38% (6)

56% (9)

100% (16)

25% (4)

75% (12)

100% (16)

56% (9)

100% (28)

89% (25)86% (24)

100% (28)

68% (19)

86% (24)

100% (28) 100% (28)

Overall vision Strategic Holistic Evidence based Achievable Sensitive to context Attentive todisparities

OVERALL QUALITYBaseline 2014/2015 Sample of 2016/2017/2018

Strong results on education sector planning, achievability remains a challenge

Proportion of ESPs meeting each quality standard

n = 16 ESPs n = 28 ESPs

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Sector planning vital but only the first step

Quality of sector plans does not necessarily lead to adoption Plans showed weaknesses in achievability Progress on previous plans does not adequately inform new plans ESPIGs have created an incentive for ESPs Sustained national capacity in planning a question mark

20

Mutual accountability improved but needs further strengthening

2927

25

38

0

20

40

60

80

2015(n=35 JSRs)

2016(n=22 JSRs)

2017(n=19 JSRs)

2018(n=26 JSRs)

Perc

enta

geActual (Overall) Actual (FCAC)

Proportion of joint sector reviews meeting quality standards

For FCAC: n(2015)= 20; n(2016)= 11; n(2017)=11; n(2018)=13

Local education groups are more inclusive

Sector dialog improved but not sustained

Joint sector reviews need improvement

21

Plan monitoring and implementation need considerable strengthening

Plan monitoring often incomplete

Plan implementation often fragmented

Little information how plan leads to outcomes

22

GPE partnership not fully “lived” at the country level

Positive contributions of key GPE actors

Varied experience with GPE operational model

Development partners take limited responsibility for ESP implementation

23

ESPIGs well implemented

ESPIGs meet targets

Funding modest but useful for innovation

Contribution to plan implementation needs clarity

91% 90% 89%

Milestone, 82%

Milestone, 88%

Milestone, 73%

21 : Textbooksdistributed

(N=10)

22 : Teachers trained (N=25)

23 : Classrooms built(N=23)

24

ESPIGs aligned with ESP, but limited information on sector results GPE grants aligned with

sector plans

Not all donor projects are aligned

International finance channeled through project modalities

28.6%

35.7%

35.7%

37.5%

42.9%

53.6%

62.5%

66.1%

80.4%

100.0%

Accounting system

PFM expenditure process

National external audit

Treasury

Specific budget appropriations

Procurement rules

National budget information

Medium term expenditure framework

ESP annual implementation report

Education sector plan

Proportion of aligned GPE grants by dimension (N=56 grants)

25

Variable tranche promising, but early for results

Only 22 ESPIGs with a variable part

Early signs positive for sector dialog, establishing priorities in sector plans

More evidence forthcoming through a desk review and country-level evaluations

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To recapAchievements

Some progress on learning, quality of assessments Improved completion rates and parity Improved quality of education plans Increased inclusiveness of local education groups Variable tranche promising for sector dialog and

priorities High GPE grant support for fragile and conflict affected

countries More GPE specific focus on gender, teachers, and data

Challenges

Low learning Number of out of school children Significant education disparities within countries Teachers and data Plan implementation, monitoring, and lesson

learning Effectiveness of country-level partnership Significant differences across countries

Thank you!