Evaluation of 2002 Annual 12km MM5 Surface Parameters for OTC Modeling

Shan He and Gary Kleiman

NESCAUM

And

Winston Hao

NYDEC

Review of Application and Assessment of CMAQ in OTC

Albany, NY

November 16, 2005

Observation Network

WIND

WINTER Wind Speed Wind Speed - CASTNet

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 910 111213 141516 17181920 212223 242526 272829 30313233 343536 373839 404142 434445 46474849 505152 535455 565758 5933533

633

733

833

934

034

134

234

334

434

534

634

734

834

935

035

135

235

335

435

535

635

735

835

936

036

136

236

336

436

5

Julian Day

m/s

Obs Prd

Wind Speed - TDL

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 91011 121314 15161718 192021 22232425 262728 29303132 333435 36373839 404142 434445 46474849 505152 53545556 57585933533

633

733

833

934

034

134

234

334

434

534

634

734

834

935

035

135

235

335

435

535

635

735

835

936

036

136

236

336

436

5

Julian Day

m/s

Obs Prd

Bias Wind Speed

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585933533

633

733

833

934

034

134

234

334

434

534

634

734

834

935

035

135

235

335

435

535

635

735

835

936

036

136

236

336

436

5

Julian Day

m/s

CASTNet TDL

Wind Speed - CASTNet

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 910 111213 141516 17181920 212223 242526 272829 30313233 343536 373839 404142 434445 46474849 505152 535455 565758 5933533

633

733

833

934

034

134

234

334

434

534

634

734

834

935

035

135

235

335

435

535

635

735

835

936

036

136

236

336

436

5

Julian Day

m/s

Obs Prd

Wind Speed - TDL

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 91011 121314 15161718 192021 22232425 262728 29303132 333435 36373839 404142 434445 46474849 505152 53545556 57585933533

633

733

833

934

034

134

234

334

434

534

634

734

834

935

035

135

235

335

435

535

635

735

835

936

036

136

236

336

436

5

Julian Day

m/s

Obs Prd

Bias Wind Speed

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585933533

633

733

833

934

034

134

234

334

434

534

634

734

834

935

035

135

235

335

435

535

635

735

835

936

036

136

236

336

436

5

Julian Day

m/s

CASTNet TDL

WINTER Wind Speed (II)RMSE Wind Speed - CASTNet

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585933533

633

733

833

934

034

134

234

334

434

534

634

734

834

935

035

135

235

335

435

535

635

735

835

936

036

136

236

336

436

5

Julian Day

m/s

RMSE RMSES RMSEU

RMSE Wind Speed - TDL

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585933533

633

733

833

934

034

134

234

334

434

534

634

734

834

935

035

135

235

335

435

535

635

735

835

936

036

136

236

336

436

5

Julian Day

m/s

RMSE RMSES RMSEU

IOA Wind Speed

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 91011121314151617 18192021222324252627282930313233343536 37383940414243444546474849505152535455 5657585933533

633

733

833

934

034

134

234

334

434

534

634

734

834

935

035

135

235

335

435

535

635

735

835

936

036

136

236

336

436

5

Julian Day

CASTNet TDL

IOA Wind Speed

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 910111213141516171819202122 2324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445 464748495051525354555657585933533

633

733

833

934

034

134

234

334

434

534

634

734

834

935

035

135

235

335

435

535

635

735

835

936

036

136

236

336

436

5

Julian Day

CASTNet TDL

WINTER Wind DirectionWind Direction - CASTNet

0

30

60

90

120

150

180

210

240

270

300

330

360

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585933533

633

733

833

934

034

134

234

334

434

534

634

734

834

935

035

135

235

335

435

535

635

735

835

936

036

136

236

336

436

5

Julian Day

De

gre

e

Obs Prd

Wind Direction - TDL

0

30

60

90

120

150

180

210

240

270

300

330

360

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585933533

633

733

833

934

034

134

234

334

434

534

634

734

834

935

035

135

235

335

435

535

635

735

835

936

036

136

236

336

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5

Julian Day

De

gre

e

Obs Prd

Bias Wind Direction

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585933533

633

733

833

934

034

134

234

334

434

534

634

734

834

935

035

135

235

335

435

535

635

735

835

936

036

136

236

336

436

5

Julian Day

De

gre

e

CASTNet TDL

Bias Wind Direction

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585933533

633

733

833

934

034

134

234

334

434

534

634

734

834

935

035

135

235

335

435

535

635

735

835

936

036

136

236

336

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5

Julian Day

De

gre

e

CASTNet TDL

SPRING Wind SpeedWind Speed - CASTNet

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

60 64 68 72 76 80 84 88 92 96 100 104 108 112 116 120 124 128 132 136 140 144 148 152

Julian Day

m/s

Obs Prd

Wind Speed - TDL

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

60 64 68 72 76 80 84 88 92 96 100 104 108 112 116 120 124 128 132 136 140 144 148 152

Julian Day

m/s

Obs Prd

Bias Wind Speed

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

60 64 68 72 76 80 84 88 92 96 100 104 108 112 116 120 124 128 132 136 140 144 148 152

Julian Day

m/s

CASTNet TDL

Wind Speed - CASTNet

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

60 64 68 72 76 80 84 88 92 96 100 104 108 112 116 120 124 128 132 136 140 144 148 152

Julian Day

m/s

Obs Prd

Wind Speed - TDL

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

60 64 68 72 76 80 84 88 92 96 100 104 108 112 116 120 124 128 132 136 140 144 148 152

Julian Day

m/s

Obs Prd

Bias Wind Speed

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

60 64 68 72 76 80 84 88 92 96 100 104 108 112 116 120 124 128 132 136 140 144 148 152

Julian Day

m/s

CASTNet TDL

SPRING Wind Speed (II)RMSE Wind Speed - CASTNet

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

60 64 68 72 76 80 84 88 92 96 100 104 108 112 116 120 124 128 132 136 140 144 148 152

Julian Day

m/s

RMSE RMSES RMSEU

RMSE Wind Speed - TDL

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

60 64 68 72 76 80 84 88 92 96 100 104 108 112 116 120 124 128 132 136 140 144 148 152

Julian Day

m/s

RMSEWndSpd RMSESWndSp RMSEUWndSp

IOA Wind Speed

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

60 64 68 72 76 80 84 88 92 96 100 104 108 112 116 120 124 128 132 136 140 144 148 152

Julian Day

CASTNet TDL

IOA Wind Speed

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

60 64 68 72 76 80 84 88 92 96 100 104 108 112 116 120 124 128 132 136 140 144 148 152

Julian Day

CASTNet TDL

SPRING Wind DirectionWind Direction - CASTNet

0

30

60

90

120

150

180

210

240

270

300

330

360

60 64 68 72 76 80 84 88 92 96 100 104 108 112 116 120 124 128 132 136 140 144 148 152

Julian Day

De

gre

e

Obs Prd

Wind Direction - TDL

0

30

60

90

120

150

180

210

240

270

300

330

360

60 64 68 72 76 80 84 88 92 96 100 104 108 112 116 120 124 128 132 136 140 144 148 152

Julian Day

De

gre

e

Obs Prd

Bias Wind Direction

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

60 64 68 72 76 80 84 88 92 96 100 104 108 112 116 120 124 128 132 136 140 144 148 152

Julian Day

De

gre

e

CASTNet TDL

Bias Wind Direction

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

60 64 68 72 76 80 84 88 92 96 100 104 108 112 116 120 124 128 132 136 140 144 148 152

Julian Day

De

gre

e

CASTNet TDL

SUMMER Wind SpeedWind Speed - CASTNet

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

152 156 160 164 168 172 176 180 184 188 192 196 200 204 208 212 216 220 224 228 232 236 240 244

Julian Day

m/s

Obs Prd

Wind Speed - TDL

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

152 156 160 164 168 172 176 180 184 188 192 196 200 204 208 212 216 220 224 228 232 236 240 244

Julian Day

m/s

Obs Prd

Bias Wind Speed

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

152 156 160 164 168 172 176 180 184 188 192 196 200 204 208 212 216 220 224 228 232 236 240 244

Julian Day

m/s

CASTNet TDL

Wind Speed - CASTNet

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

152 156 160 164 168 172 176 180 184 188 192 196 200 204 208 212 216 220 224 228 232 236 240 244

Julian Day

m/s

Obs Prd

Wind Speed - TDL

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

152 156 160 164 168 172 176 180 184 188 192 196 200 204 208 212 216 220 224 228 232 236 240 244

Julian Day

m/s

Obs Prd

Bias Wind Speed

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

152 156 160 164 168 172 176 180 184 188 192 196 200 204 208 212 216 220 224 228 232 236 240 244

Julian Day

m/s

CASTNet TDL

SUMMER Wind Speed (II)RMSE Wind Speed - CASTNet

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

152 156 160 164 168 172 176 180 184 188 192 196 200 204 208 212 216 220 224 228 232 236 240 244

Julian Day

m/s

RMSE RMSES RMSEU

RMSE Wind Speed - TDL

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

152 156 160 164 168 172 176 180 184 188 192 196 200 204 208 212 216 220 224 228 232 236 240 244

Julian Day

m/s

RMSE RMSES RMSEU

IOA Wind Speed

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

152 156 160 164 168 172 176 180 184 188 192 196 200 204 208 212 216 220 224 228 232 236 240 244

Julian Day

CASTNet TDL

IOA Wind Speed

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

152 156 160 164 168 172 176 180 184 188 192 196 200 204 208 212 216 220 224 228 232 236 240 244

Julian Day

CASTNet TDL

SUMMER Wind DirectionWind Direction - CASTNet

0

30

60

90

120

150

180

210

240

270

300

330

360

152 156 160 164 168 172 176 180 184 188 192 196 200 204 208 212 216 220 224 228 232 236 240 244

Julian Day

De

gre

e

Obs

Prd

Wind Direction - TDL

0

30

60

90

120

150

180

210

240

270

300

330

360

152 156 160 164 168 172 176 180 184 188 192 196 200 204 208 212 216 220 224 228 232 236 240 244

Julian Day

De

gre

e

Obs

Prd

Bias Wind Direction

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

152 156 160 164 168 172 176 180 184 188 192 196 200 204 208 212 216 220 224 228 232 236 240 244

Julian Day

De

gre

e

CASTNet TDL

Bias Wind Direction

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

152 156 160 164 168 172 176 180 184 188 192 196 200 204 208 212 216 220 224 228 232 236 240 244

Julian Day

De

gre

e

CASTNet TDL

FALL Wind SpeedWind Speed - CASTNet

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

243 247 251 255 259 263 267 271 275 279 283 287 291 295 299 303 307 311 315 319 323 327 331 335

Julian Day

m/s

Obs Prd

Wind Speed - TDL

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

243 247 251 255 259 263 267 271 275 279 283 287 291 295 299 303 307 311 315 319 323 327 331 335

Julian Day

m/s

Obs Prd

Bias Wind Speed

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

243 247 251 255 259 263 267 271 275 279 283 287 291 295 299 303 307 311 315 319 323 327 331 335

Julian Day

m/s

CASTNet TDL

Wind Speed - CASTNet

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

243 247 251 255 259 263 267 271 275 279 283 287 291 295 299 303 307 311 315 319 323 327 331 335

Julian Day

m/s

Obs Prd

Wind Speed - TDL

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

243 247 251 255 259 263 267 271 275 279 283 287 291 295 299 303 307 311 315 319 323 327 331 335

Julian Day

m/s

Obs Prd

Bias Wind Speed

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

243 247 251 255 259 263 267 271 275 279 283 287 291 295 299 303 307 311 315 319 323 327 331 335

Julian Day

m/s

CASTNet TDL

FALL Wind Speed (II)RMSE Wind Speed - CASTNet

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

243 247 251 255 259 263 267 271 275 279 283 287 291 295 299 303 307 311 315 319 323 327 331 335

Julian Day

m/s

RMSE RMSES RMSEU

RMSE Wind Speed - TDL

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

243 247 251 255 259 263 267 271 275 279 283 287 291 295 299 303 307 311 315 319 323 327 331 335

Julian Day

m/s

RMSE RMSES RMSEU

IOA Wind Speed

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

243 247 251 255 259 263 267 271 275 279 283 287 291 295 299 303 307 311 315 319 323 327 331 335

Julian Day

CASTNet TDL

IOA Wind Speed

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

243 247 251 255 259 263 267 271 275 279 283 287 291 295 299 303 307 311 315 319 323 327 331 335

Julian Day

CASTNet TDL

FALL Wind DirectionWind Direction - CASTNet

0

30

60

90

120

150

180

210

240

270

300

330

360

243 247 251 255 259 263 267 271 275 279 283 287 291 295 299 303 307 311 315 319 323 327 331 335

Julian Day

De

gre

e

Obs Prd

Wind Direction - TDL

0

30

60

90

120

150

180

210

240

270

300

330

360

243 247 251 255 259 263 267 271 275 279 283 287 291 295 299 303 307 311 315 319 323 327 331 335

Julian Day

De

gre

e

Obs Prd

Bias Wind Direction

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

243 247 251 255 259 263 267 271 275 279 283 287 291 295 299 303 307 311 315 319 323 327 331 335

Julian Day

De

gre

e

CASTNet TDL

Bias Wind Direction

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

243 247 251 255 259 263 267 271 275 279 283 287 291 295 299 303 307 311 315 319 323 327 331 335

Julian Day

De

gre

e

CASTNet TDL

WIND• MM5 tends to overestimate wind

speed at CASTNet sites, and underestimate wind speed at TDL sites

• Mean bias of MM5 wind speed to CASTNet wind speed is ~0.3 to 0.4m/s, while mean bias of MM5 wind speed to TDL wind speed is about ~-0.5 to -0.6m/s

• MM5 wind speed shows similar IOA (~0.7 to 0.8) for both CASTnet data and TDL data

• MM5 wind direction shows larger variation to CASTNet wind direction than to TDL wind direction

• However, mean bias of MM5 wind direction to CASTNet wind direction is smaller than mean bias of MM5 wind direction to TDL wind direction

Max Min Mean Max Min Mean Max Min MeanCASTNET 1.16 -0.42 0.34 0.88 0.52 0.73 23.98 -22.55 2.54

TDL 0.11 -1.40 -0.53 0.90 0.55 0.74 11.42 -5.81 3.12CASTNET 1.42 -0.61 0.31 0.92 0.47 0.75 18.55 -20.29 0.88

TDL 0.17 -1.51 -0.56 0.90 0.55 0.79 8.98 -2.80 3.31CASTNET 1.70 -0.79 0.31 0.89 0.22 0.70 26.54 -20.04 1.93

TDL 0.21 -1.85 -0.59 0.91 0.53 0.76 38.45 -6.45 3.48CASTNET 1.37 -0.76 0.38 0.89 0.42 0.73 32.74 -21.19 2.49

TDL 0.04 -1.33 -0.55 0.92 0.58 0.77 12.80 -4.59 3.61CASTNET 1.60 -0.76 0.44 0.88 0.33 0.69 29.64 -20.58 2.33

TDL -0.04 -1.19 -0.52 0.91 0.54 0.74 11.25 -4.80 3.53CASTNET 1.25 -0.63 0.28 0.87 0.41 0.69 30.65 -26.33 3.33

TDL -0.07 -1.11 -0.56 0.89 0.50 0.73 11.15 -3.65 3.89CASTNET 1.26 -0.58 0.31 0.87 0.34 0.66 29.26 -33.34 1.44

TDL -0.14 -1.01 -0.58 0.86 0.38 0.68 12.30 -3.84 3.62CASTNET 1.65 -0.87 0.24 0.95 0.16 0.65 31.83 -26.96 2.34

TDL -0.02 -1.22 -0.61 0.88 0.38 0.67 11.76 -4.67 2.74CASTNET 1.47 -0.75 0.30 0.87 0.39 0.67 30.95 -32.73 3.01

TDL -0.09 -1.09 -0.54 0.88 0.48 0.72 11.54 -4.19 3.31CASTNET 1.32 -0.72 0.32 0.89 0.50 0.72 35.10 -28.90 1.39

TDL -0.10 -1.05 -0.56 0.88 0.51 0.74 10.82 -4.09 2.81CASTNET 1.39 -0.86 0.37 0.97 0.38 0.74 25.62 -17.68 2.35

TDL 0.02 -1.29 -0.57 0.88 0.49 0.75 9.30 -3.58 2.28CASTNET 1.31 -0.53 0.39 0.92 0.43 0.74 30.70 -18.60 2.69

TDL -0.08 -1.17 -0.59 0.89 0.60 0.76 10.08 -5.47 3.41

OCT

NOV

DEC

JUN

JUL

AUG

SEP

FEB

MAR

APR

MAY

JAN

Bias IOA BiasWind Speed Wind Direction

2002 Network

TEMPERATURE

WINTER TemperatureSurface Temperature - CASTNet

245

250

255

260

265

270

275

280

285

290

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585933533

633

733

833

934

034

134

234

334

434

534

634

734

834

935

035

135

235

335

435

535

635

735

835

936

036

136

236

336

436

5

Julian Day

K

Obs Prd

Surface Temperature - TDL

250

255

260

265

270

275

280

285

290

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585933533

633

733

833

934

034

134

234

334

434

534

634

734

834

935

035

135

235

335

435

535

635

735

835

936

036

136

236

336

436

5

Julian Day

K

Obs Prd

Bias Surface Temperature

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 910111213141516 171819202122232425 2627282930313233 3435363738394041 424344454647484950 5152535455565758 5933533

633

733

833

934

034

134

234

334

434

534

634

734

834

935

035

135

235

335

435

535

635

735

835

936

036

136

236

336

436

5

Julian Day

K

CASTNet TDL

Surface Temperature - CASTNet

245

250

255

260

265

270

275

280

285

290

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585933533

633

733

833

934

034

134

234

334

434

534

634

734

834

935

035

135

235

335

435

535

635

735

835

936

036

136

236

336

436

5

Julian Day

K

Obs Prd

Surface Temperature - TDL

250

255

260

265

270

275

280

285

290

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585933533

633

733

833

934

034

134

234

334

434

534

634

734

834

935

035

135

235

335

435

535

635

735

835

936

036

136

236

336

436

5

Julian Day

K

Obs Prd

Bias Surface Temperature

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 910111213141516 171819202122232425 2627282930313233 3435363738394041 424344454647484950 5152535455565758 5933533

633

733

833

934

034

134

234

334

434

534

634

734

834

935

035

135

235

335

435

535

635

735

835

936

036

136

236

336

436

5

Julian Day

K

CASTNet TDL

WINTER Temperature (II)RMSE Surface Temperature - CASTNet

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 91011 1213141516 1718192021 222324252627 2829303132 3334353637 383940414243 4445464748 495051525354 555657585933533

633

733

833

934

034

134

234

334

434

534

634

734

834

935

035

135

235

335

435

535

635

735

835

936

036

136

236

336

436

5

Julian Day

K

RMSE RMSES RMSEU

RMSE Surface Temperature - TDL

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 91011 1213141516171819202122 232425262728293031323334 3536373839404142434445 464748495051525354555657 585933533

633

733

833

934

034

134

234

334

434

534

634

734

834

935

035

135

235

335

435

535

635

735

835

936

036

136

236

336

436

5

Julian Day

K

RMSE RMSES RMSEU

IOA Surface Temperature

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585933533

633

733

833

934

034

134

234

334

434

534

634

734

834

935

035

135

235

335

435

535

635

735

835

936

036

136

236

336

436

5

Julian Day

CASTNet TDL

IOA Surface Temperature

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585933533

633

733

833

934

034

134

234

334

434

534

634

734

834

935

035

135

235

335

435

535

635

735

835

936

036

136

236

336

436

5

Julian Day

CASTNet TDL

SPRING TemperatureSurface Temperature - CASTNet

260

265

270

275

280

285

290

295

300

305

60 64 68 72 76 80 84 88 92 96 100 104 108 112 116 120 124 128 132 136 140 144 148 152

Julian Day

K

Obs Prd

Surface Temperature - TDL

260

265

270

275

280

285

290

295

300

305

60 64 68 72 76 80 84 88 92 96 100 104 108 112 116 120 124 128 132 136 140 144 148 152

Julian Day

K

Obs Prd

Bias Surface Temperature

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

60 64 68 72 76 80 84 88 92 96 100 104 108 112 116 120 124 128 132 136 140 144 148 152

Julian Day

K

CASTNet TDL

Surface Temperature - CASTNet

260

265

270

275

280

285

290

295

300

305

60 64 68 72 76 80 84 88 92 96 100 104 108 112 116 120 124 128 132 136 140 144 148 152

Julian Day

K

Obs Prd

Surface Temperature - TDL

260

265

270

275

280

285

290

295

300

305

60 64 68 72 76 80 84 88 92 96 100 104 108 112 116 120 124 128 132 136 140 144 148 152

Julian Day

K

Obs Prd

Bias Surface Temperature

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

60 64 68 72 76 80 84 88 92 96 100 104 108 112 116 120 124 128 132 136 140 144 148 152

Julian Day

K

CASTNet TDL

SPRING Temperature (II)RMSE Surface Temperature - CASTNet

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

60 64 68 72 76 80 84 88 92 96 100 104 108 112 116 120 124 128 132 136 140 144 148 152

Julian Day

K

RMSE RMSES RMSEU

RMSE Surface Temperature - TDL

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

60 64 68 72 76 80 84 88 92 96 100 104 108 112 116 120 124 128 132 136 140 144 148 152

Julian Day

K

RMSE RMSES RMSEU

IOA Surface Temperature

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

60 64 68 72 76 80 84 88 92 96 100 104 108 112 116 120 124 128 132 136 140 144 148 152

Julian Day

CASTNet TDL

IOA Surface Temperature

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

60 64 68 72 76 80 84 88 92 96 100 104 108 112 116 120 124 128 132 136 140 144 148 152

Julian Day

CASTNet TDL

SUMMER TemperatureSurface Temperature - CASTNet

280

285

290

295

300

305

310

152 156 160 164 168 172 176 180 184 188 192 196 200 204 208 212 216 220 224 228 232 236 240 244

Julian Day

K

Obs Prd

Surface Temperature - TDL

280

285

290

295

300

305

310

152 156 160 164 168 172 176 180 184 188 192 196 200 204 208 212 216 220 224 228 232 236 240 244

Julian Day

K

Obs Prd

Bias Surface Temperature

-10

-9

-8

-7

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

152 156 160 164 168 172 176 180 184 188 192 196 200 204 208 212 216 220 224 228 232 236 240 244

Julian Day

K

CASTNet TDL

Bias Surface Temperature

-10

-9

-8

-7

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

152 156 160 164 168 172 176 180 184 188 192 196 200 204 208 212 216 220 224 228 232 236 240 244

Julian Day

K

CASTNet TDL

SUMMER Temperature (II)RMSE Surface Temperature - CASTNet

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

152 156 160 164 168 172 176 180 184 188 192 196 200 204 208 212 216 220 224 228 232 236 240 244

Julian Day

K

RMSE RMSES RMSEU

RMSE Surface Temperature - TDL

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

152 156 160 164 168 172 176 180 184 188 192 196 200 204 208 212 216 220 224 228 232 236 240 244

Julian Day

K

RMSE RMSES RMSEU

IOA Surface Temperature

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

152 156 160 164 168 172 176 180 184 188 192 196 200 204 208 212 216 220 224 228 232 236 240 244

Julian Day

CASTNet TDL

IOA Surface Temperature

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

152 156 160 164 168 172 176 180 184 188 192 196 200 204 208 212 216 220 224 228 232 236 240 244

Julian Day

CASTNet TDL

FALL TemperatureSurface Temperature - CASTNet

260

265

270

275

280

285

290

295

300

305

310

243 247 251 255 259 263 267 271 275 279 283 287 291 295 299 303 307 311 315 319 323 327 331 335

Julian Day

K

Obs Prd

Surface Temperature - TDL

260

265

270

275

280

285

290

295

300

305

310

243 247 251 255 259 263 267 271 275 279 283 287 291 295 299 303 307 311 315 319 323 327 331 335

Julian Day

K

Obs Prd

Bias Surface Temperature

-8

-7

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

243 247 251 255 259 263 267 271 275 279 283 287 291 295 299 303 307 311 315 319 323 327 331 335

Julian Day

K

CASTNet TDL

Surface Temperature - CASTNet

260

265

270

275

280

285

290

295

300

305

310

243 247 251 255 259 263 267 271 275 279 283 287 291 295 299 303 307 311 315 319 323 327 331 335

Julian Day

K

Obs Prd

Surface Temperature - TDL

260

265

270

275

280

285

290

295

300

305

310

243 247 251 255 259 263 267 271 275 279 283 287 291 295 299 303 307 311 315 319 323 327 331 335

Julian Day

K

Obs Prd

Bias Surface Temperature

-8

-7

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

243 247 251 255 259 263 267 271 275 279 283 287 291 295 299 303 307 311 315 319 323 327 331 335

Julian Day

K

CASTNet TDL

FALL Temperature (II)RMSE Surface Temperature - CASTNet

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

243 247 251 255 259 263 267 271 275 279 283 287 291 295 299 303 307 311 315 319 323 327 331 335

Julian Day

K

RMSE RMSES RMSEU

RMSE Surface Temperature - TDL

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

243 247 251 255 259 263 267 271 275 279 283 287 291 295 299 303 307 311 315 319 323 327 331 335

Julian Day

K

RMSE RMSES RMSEU

IOA Surface Temperature

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

243 247 251 255 259 263 267 271 275 279 283 287 291 295 299 303 307 311 315 319 323 327 331 335

Julian Day

CASTNet TDL

IOA Surface Temperature

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

243 247 251 255 259 263 267 271 275 279 283 287 291 295 299 303 307 311 315 319 323 327 331 335

Julian Day

CASTNet TDL

TEMPERATURE

• MM5 tends to underestimate temperature at TDL sites all year, and at CASTNet sites for seasons other than 5month summer

• MM5 performs better on temperature for Summer than for Winter

• Unsystematic RMSE dominates RMSE at TDL sites consistently, while at CASTNet sites, RMSEU weights similar as RMSES

• MM5 shows good IOA at TDL sites (~0.9), better than at CASTNet sites (~0.8)

Max Min Mean Max Min MeanCASTNET 2.81 -3.59 -1.25 0.99 0.61 0.88

TDL 0.94 -2.73 -1.18 1.00 0.78 0.94CASTNET 3.12 -3.77 -0.65 0.98 0.52 0.81

TDL 0.79 -2.64 -1.00 0.99 0.81 0.96CASTNET 3.31 -4.39 -0.35 0.98 0.64 0.83

TDL 0.81 -2.65 -0.72 1.00 0.86 0.97CASTNET 3.52 -2.97 -0.52 0.98 0.65 0.90

TDL 1.13 -2.06 -0.48 0.99 0.84 0.97CASTNET 7.02 -2.83 0.67 0.99 0.51 0.87

TDL 1.27 -1.88 -0.18 0.99 0.86 0.96CASTNET 7.13 -2.23 1.03 0.98 0.46 0.85

TDL 0.98 -1.21 -0.12 0.99 0.85 0.95CASTNET 4.70 -2.40 0.34 0.97 0.60 0.85

TDL 0.74 -1.38 -0.34 0.98 0.75 0.92CASTNET 9.03 -2.59 0.32 0.99 0.62 0.86

TDL 0.53 -1.28 -0.42 0.99 0.79 0.93CASTNET 5.72 -2.37 0.76 0.97 0.52 0.86

TDL 0.34 -1.57 -0.54 0.99 0.76 0.94CASTNET 5.17 -3.39 -0.56 0.99 0.55 0.89

TDL 0.29 -2.39 -0.79 0.99 0.86 0.97CASTNET 2.83 -4.29 -1.25 0.99 0.58 0.88

TDL 0.25 -2.99 -1.35 0.99 0.82 0.95CASTNET 1.98 -3.76 -1.17 0.98 0.52 0.88

TDL 0.29 -2.55 -1.20 0.99 0.80 0.94

SEP

OCT

NOV

DEC

MAY

JUN

JUL

AUG

JAN

FEB

MAR

APR

Bias IOANetworkTemperature

2002

HUMIDITY

WINTER HumidityHumidity - TDL

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 910 1112 131415 1617 1819 202122 2324 2526 272829 3031 323334 3536 3738 394041 4243 4445 464748 4950 515253 5455 5657 585933533

633

733

833

934

034

134

234

334

434

534

634

734

834

935

035

135

235

335

435

535

635

735

835

936

036

136

236

336

436

5

Julian Day

g/k

g

Obs Prd

Bias Humidity - TDL

-1.0

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585933533

633

733

833

934

034

134

234

334

434

534

634

734

834

935

035

135

235

335

435

535

635

735

835

936

036

136

236

336

436

5

Julian Day

g/k

g

RMSE Humidity - TDL

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585933533

633

733

833

934

034

134

234

334

434

534

634

734

834

935

035

135

235

335

435

535

635

735

835

936

036

136

236

336

436

5

Julian Day

g/k

g

RMSE RMSES RMSEU

IOA Humidity TDL

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585933533

633

733

833

934

034

134

234

334

434

534

634

734

834

935

035

135

235

335

435

535

635

735

835

936

036

136

236

336

436

5

Julian Day

SPRING HumidityHumidity - TDL

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

60 64 68 72 76 80 84 88 92 96 100 104 108 112 116 120 124 128 132 136 140 144 148 152

Julian Day

g/k

g

Obs Prd

Bias Humidity - TDL

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

60 64 68 72 76 80 84 88 92 96 100 104 108 112 116 120 124 128 132 136 140 144 148 152

Julian Day

g/k

g

RMSE Humidity - TDL

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

60 64 68 72 76 80 84 88 92 96 100 104 108 112 116 120 124 128 132 136 140 144 148 152

Julian Day

g/k

g

RMSE RMSES RMSEU

IOA Humidity -TDL

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

60 64 68 72 76 80 84 88 92 96 100 104 108 112 116 120 124 128 132 136 140 144 148 152

Julian Day

SUMMER HumidityHumidity - TDL

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

152 156 160 164 168 172 176 180 184 188 192 196 200 204 208 212 216 220 224 228 232 236 240 244

Julian Day

g/k

g

Obs Prd

Bias Humidity - TDL

-3.0

-2.5

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

152 156 160 164 168 172 176 180 184 188 192 196 200 204 208 212 216 220 224 228 232 236 240 244

Julian Day

g/k

g

RMSE Humidity - TDL

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

152 156 160 164 168 172 176 180 184 188 192 196 200 204 208 212 216 220 224 228 232 236 240 244

Julian Day

g/k

g

RMSE RMSES RMSEU

IOA Humidity - TDL

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

152 156 160 164 168 172 176 180 184 188 192 196 200 204 208 212 216 220 224 228 232 236 240 244

Julian Day

FALL HumidityHumidity - TDL

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

243 247 251 255 259 263 267 271 275 279 283 287 291 295 299 303 307 311 315 319 323 327 331 335

Julian Day

g/k

g

Obs Prd

Bias Humidity - TDL

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

243 247 251 255 259 263 267 271 275 279 283 287 291 295 299 303 307 311 315 319 323 327 331 335

Julian Day

g/k

g

RMSE Humidity - TDL

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

243 247 251 255 259 263 267 271 275 279 283 287 291 295 299 303 307 311 315 319 323 327 331 335

Julian Day

g/k

g

RMSE RMSES RMSEU

IOA Humidity - TDL

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

243 247 251 255 259 263 267 271 275 279 283 287 291 295 299 303 307 311 315 319 323 327 331 335

Julian Day

HUMIDITY• MM5 captures general trend of

humidity change• MM5 tends to overestimate

humidity in Winter, Spring, and Fall, but underestimate humidity in 5 month Summer

• MM5 often shows larger diurnal variations than observation

• Unsystematic RMSE dominates RMSE

• MM5 shows good IOA (~0.9) all year

Max Min Mean Max Min MeanJAN TDL -0.24 -1.54 0.45 0.99 0.60 0.89FEB TDL 1.51 -0.07 0.48 0.99 0.54 0.87MAR TDL 1.73 -0.10 0.52 0.99 0.47 0.91APR TDL 3.48 -0.82 0.52 0.99 0.44 0.91MAY TDL 0.92 -1.67 -0.02 0.99 0.48 0.91JUN TDL 1.00 -2.27 -0.33 0.98 0.67 0.88JUL TDL 0.87 -2.32 -0.55 0.97 0.57 0.86AUG TDL 0.92 -2.17 -0.23 0.97 0.58 0.86SEP TDL 1.64 -1.39 0.03 0.98 0.66 0.91OCT TDL 0.97 -0.67 0.15 0.99 0.80 0.96NOV TDL 1.51 -0.17 0.34 0.99 0.56 0.92DEC TDL 0.95 -0.17 0.34 0.99 0.54 0.91

HumidityBias IOA2002 Network