EV LONG-TERM FORECAST INTEGRATION

Do you account for Electric Vehicles in your long-term forecast?

Of respondents, 28% adjust for EV projections.

SAE END USE INDEX

y

ShareShare

Equipment

BaseYear

y

BaseYeary

EffEff

ShareWeightndexEquipmentI

Equipment Stock

15.045.010.0

,

B Y

y

B Y

y

B Y

ymy Price

PriceHHSize

HHSizeIncome

IncomeUsage

Usage

BaseYearBaseYearBaseYear PriceHHSizeIncome

yyy UsagendexEquipmentIXEndUse XEndUse

3

CHARACTERISTICS OF EV’S

A new End Use (e.g. CAC, EHeat, Ref, Dish, EDry etc.) Data Inputs

EV Sales EV Decay EV Stock Miles / KWh Annual Miles Traveled Unit Energy Consumption (UEC)gy ( )

Model Inputs EV Sales Index EV ShareUEC Index

EV DATA EXAMPLE (SHARE INPUTS)

Share Inputs

EV SALES

EV DECAY

EV STOCK ACCOUNTING

EV DATA EXAMPLE (UEC INPUTS)

UEC Inputs

Y

Yy KWhMiles

sAnnualMileUEC/

EV DATA EXAMPLE (SAE MODEL INPUTS)

Model Inputs

YYy UECStockSales

EV SAE MODEL INTEGRATION

Option 1: Direct Adjustment Subtract Historical Impacts from Sales and construct model

i S l B f EV th D d t V i blusing Sales Before EV as the Dependent Variable Add Back the Historical and Projected Impacts

Option 2: XOther Include the EV End Use as a contributor to XOther. EV Impacts will be adjusted by the XOther model coefficientp j y Works well when XOther Coef ≈ 1

Option 3: XElectricVehicleOption 3: XElectricVehicle Future Option Will work when EV Sales Impacts are both large in magnitude and

distinct in trajectory.j y

PV FORECAST INTEGRATION BY REGION

Do you account for PV’s in your long-term forecast?term forecast?

Of respondents, 21% adjust for PV projections.

CHARACTERISTICS OF PV’S

An alternative power supply source supply Integrated Resource Plans tends to drive the methodology for integrating

PV projections into the long-term forecast. Data Inputs

PV Installations (# or KW) Average Size (KW) PV Degradation PV Stock (KW) Capacity Factor

Forecast Outputs Sales Savings Impacts (MWh) Use per Customer Savings Impacts (KWh)

PV DATA EXAMPLE (CAPACITY INPUTS)

Capacity InputsCapacity Inputs

PV DATA EXAMPLE (USAGE INPUTS)

Usage Input

utputAnnualKWhO Y

Yy KW

utputAnnualKWhOctorCapacityFa8760*

PV DATA EXAMPLE (MODEL INPUTS)

Model InputsModel Inputs

YYy ctorCapacityFaKWStockSales

PV SAE MODEL INTEGRATION

Option 1: Add Back Method Add Back historical PV Impacts to the Residential Sales or

UPC S iUPC Series Model Sales Before PV Subtract PV Forecast from Model Result

Option 2: XOther Subtract the Estimated Solar PV Impacts from the XOther VariableSubtract the Estimated Solar PV Impacts from the XOther Variable PV Impacts will be adjusted by the model coefficient Works well when XOther Coef ≈ 1

Option 3: XSolarPV Future Option Will work when EV Sales Impacts are both large in magnitude and Will work when EV Sales Impacts are both large in magnitude and

distinct in trajectory.

THANK YOU

ITRON, INC.

11236 El Camino RealSan Diego, CA 92129USA

www.itron.comTEL 858 724-2620

FAX 858 724-2690