EFG 2007 Meeting 1

AEO 2007 Projections

John CymbalskyPresentation to EFG

May 3, 2007

EFG 2007 Meeting 2

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Residential

Industrial

Commercial

ProjectionsHistory

Annual Electricity Sales by Sector, 1980-2030billion kilowatthours

Res – 1.3%/yr, Com – 2.0%/yr

Indy – 0.6%/yr

EFG 2007 Meeting 3

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

High TechnologyReference

2006 Technology

ProjectionsHistory

Residential Delivered Energy Consumption per Capita, 1990-2030

index, 1990=1

EFG 2007 Meeting 4

Residential Electricity Consumption per Capita, 1980-2030

0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

2.00

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

inde

x 19

80 =

1.0

2006 Technology AEO 2007 Reference High Technology

EFG 2007 Meeting 5

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Electricity Natural Gas Liquid Fuels

2005

2015

2030

Residential Delivered Energy Consumption by Fuel, 2005, 2015, and 2030

quadrillion Btu

EFG 2007 Meeting 6

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

Natural GasFurnaces

Central AirConditioners

Refrigerators New Building ShellEfficiency

2005 Stock

2030 Stock, 2006 Technology Case

2030 Stock, Best Available Technology Case

Efficiency Indicators for Selected Residential Appliances, 2005 and 2030

index, 2005 stock efficiency=1

EFG 2007 Meeting 7

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Reference

High Technology

2006 Technology

ProjectionsHistory

Commercial Delivered Energy Consumption per Capita, 1980-2030

index, 1980=1

EFG 2007 Meeting 8

0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

2.00

2.25

2.50

2.75

3.00

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

inde

x 19

80 =

1.0

2006 Technology A E O 2007 Reference High Technology

Commercial Delivered Electricity Consumption per Capita, 1980-2030

EFG 2007 Meeting 9

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Electricity Natural Gas Liquid Fuels

2005

2015

2030

Commercial Delivered Energy Consumption by Fuel,2005, 2015, and 2030

quadrillion Btu

EFG 2007 Meeting 10

0.0

0.4

0.8

1.2

1.6

2.0

Natural Gas Heating Electric Cooling Lighting Refrigeration

2005 Stock

2030 Stock, 2006 Technology Case

2030 Stock, Best Available Technology Case

Efficiency Indicators for Selected Commercial Energy End Users, 2005 and 2030

index, 2005 stock efficiency=1

EFG 2007 Meeting 11

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1970 1980 1990 2000 2005 2010 2020 2030

1970 2030

Nominal Cents

1.7

13.0

ProjectionsHistory

Average U.S. Retail Electricity Prices, 1970-2030

2005 cents per kilowatthour

Energy Information AdministrationOfficial Energy Statistics from the U.S. Government

What’s New With Small End Uses

John CymbalskyPresentation to EFG

May 3, 2007

EFG 2007 Meeting 13

Residential End Use Services

• Heating• Cooling• Water Heating• Refrigeration• Freezers• Cooking• Clothes Drying• Clothes Washing• Coffee Makers• Handheld Rechargeables

• Lighting• Dishwashers• Televisions• PCs• Furnace Fans• Spas• Security Systems• Home Audio• Microwaves• Ceiling Fans

EFG 2007 Meeting 14

Commercial End Use Services

• Heating• Cooling• Water Heating• Ventilation• Refrigeration• Cooking• Lighting

• Office Equipment (PCs)

• Office Equipment (non-PCs)

• Other

EFG 2007 Meeting 15

Commercial End Use Services within Other

• Electricity– Coffee Makers– Distribution

Transformers– Non-road Electric

Vehicles– Medical Imaging– Elevators & Escalators– Municipal Water

Services– Miscellaneous Services

– Combined Heat and Power

• Natural Gas– Miscellaneous Services

• Distillate Fuel Oil– Combined Heat and

Power– Miscellaneous Services

EFG 2007 Meeting 16

EFG 2007 Meeting 17

EFG 2007 Meeting 18

EFG 2007 Meeting 19

EFG 2007 Meeting 20

Miscellaneous Electricity Uses in the Residential Sector, 2005, 2015, and 2030 (billion kWh)

1,896.51,591.21,364.8Total Residential Sector Electricity Use

655.4514.1384.2Total Miscellaneous432.7325.2232.5Other Miscellaneous Uses

222.7188.9151.7Total, Miscellaneous Uses Studied9.812.015.6DVDs/VCRs10.69.09.8Hand-held Rechargeable Devices92.572.952.1Color TVs32.730.017.1Set-top Boxes12.79.68.3Spas2.41.81.9Security Systems19.016.314.3Microwave Ovens23.520.116.8Ceiling Fans14.012.611.8Home Audio5.54.74.0Coffee Makers

203020152005Electricity Use

EFG 2007 Meeting 21

Miscellaneous Electricity Uses in the Commercial Sector, 2005, 2015, and 2030 (billion kWh)

2,061.61,548.21,266.7Total Commercial Sector Electricity Use

601.6505.1366.9Total Miscellaneous166.8357.9229.5Other Miscellaneous Uses

27.2147.2137.4Total, Miscellaneous Uses Studied1.325.324.5Wastewater Treatment47.01.21.1Water Supply: Purification1.042.040.0Water Supply: Distribution6.55.55.1Elevators and Escalators (separate in report)12.06.84.0X-ray Machines2.81.80.9Computed Tomography (CT) Scanners4.51.90.6Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI)7.15.14.0Non-road Electric Vehicles54.954.654.5Distribution Transformers3.53.02.7Coffee Makers

203020152005Electricity Use

EFG 2007 Meeting 22

Electricity Use and Market Share for Televisions by Type, 2005 and 2015

40

40

40

Screen Size

(inches)

8 348 19

150234

Digital, Enhanced or High Definition

Energy Information AdministrationOfficial Energy Statistics from the U.S. Government

Saturation Forecasts

John CymbalskyPresentation to EFG

May 3, 2007

EFG 2007 Meeting 24

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

55%

60%

65%

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

US AVG So. Atl.

Electric Space Heating Saturation

UEC: 2005 – 2651 kWh 2030 – 2389 kWh

UEC: 2005 – 3339 kWh 2030 – 2925 kWh

EFG 2007 Meeting 25

Central AC and Heat Pump Saturation

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

95%

100%

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

US AVG So. Atl.

UEC: 2005 – 2982 kWh 2030 – 2321 kWh

UEC: 2005 – 3717 kWh 2030 – 3184 kWh

EFG 2007 Meeting 26

Room Air Conditioner Saturation

5%

8%

10%

13%

15%

18%

20%

23%

25%

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

US AVG So. Atl.

UEC: 2005 – 1399 kWh 2030 – 1240 kWh

UEC: 2005 – 1026 kWh 2030 – 781 kWh

EFG 2007 Meeting 27

Ceiling Fans per Household

1.75

2.00

2.25

2.50

2.75

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

US AVG So. Atl.

UEC: 2005 – 135 kWh 2030 – 118 kWh

UEC: 2005 – 89 kWh 2030 – 75 kWh

EFG 2007 Meeting 28

4.00

4.25

4.50

4.75

5.00

5.25

5.50

5.75

6.00

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

US AVG So. Atl.

TVs and Set-Top Boxes per Household

UEC: 2005 – 157 kWh 2030 – 176 kWh

EFG 2007 Meeting 29

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

US AVG So. Atl.

Electric Cooking Saturation

UEC: 2005 – 470 kWh 2030 – 469 kWh

UEC: 2005 – 448 kWh 2030 – 450 kWh

EFG 2007 Meeting 30

Microwave Oven Saturation

90%

91%

92%

93%

94%

95%

96%

97%

98%

99%

100%

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

US AVG So. Atl.

UEC: 2005 – 132 kWh 2030 – 132 kWh

EFG 2007 Meeting 31

0.56

0.58

0.60

0.62

0.64

0.66

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

US AVG So. Atl.

Coffee Maker Saturation

UEC: 2005 – 57 kWh 2030 – 62 kWh

EFG 2007 Meeting 32

1.10

1.12

1.14

1.16

1.18

1.20

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

US AVG So. Atl.

Refrigerators per Household

UEC: 2005 – 856 kWh 2030 – 659 kWh

UEC: 2005 – 862 kWh 2030 – 657 kWh

EFG 2007 Meeting 33

21%

23%

25%

27%

29%

31%

33%

35%

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

US AVG So. Atl.

Freezer Saturation

UEC: 2005 – 1040 kWh 2030 – 856 kWh

UEC: 2005 – 1012 kWh 2030 – 845 kWh

EFG 2007 Meeting 34

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

US AVG So. Atl.

Dishwasher Saturation

UEC: 2005 – 116 kWh 2030 – 106 kWh

EFG 2007 Meeting 35

Clothes Washer Saturation

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

US AVG So. Atl.

UEC: 2005 – 111 kWh 2030 – 69 kWh

EFG 2007 Meeting 36

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

80%

85%

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

US AVG So. Atl.

Electric Clothes Dryer Saturation

UEC: 2005 – 1045 kWh 2030 – 928 kWh

UEC: 2005 – 1093 kWh 2030 – 967 kWh

EFG 2007 Meeting 37

35%

40%

45%

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

US AVG So. Atl.

Electric Water Heater Saturation

UEC: 2005 – 2569 kWh 2030 – 2119 kWh

UEC: 2005 – 2531 kWh 2030 – 2113 kWh

EFG 2007 Meeting 38

75%

80%

85%

90%

95%

100%

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

US AVG So. Atl.

Personal Computer Saturation

UEC: 2005 – 253 kWh 2030 – 464 kWh

EFG 2007 Meeting 39

40

45

50

55

60

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

US AVG So. Atl.

Lights per Household

UEC: 2005 – 655 kWh 2030 – 712 kWh

UEC: 2005 – 636 kWh 2030 – 680 kWh

EFG 2007 Meeting 40

80%

81%

82%

83%

84%

85%

86%

87%

88%

89%

90%

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

US AVG So. Atl.

Home Audio Saturation

UEC: 2005 – 120 kWh 2030 – 110 kWh

EFG 2007 Meeting 41

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

US AVG So. Atl.

Home Security System Saturation

UEC: 2005 – 75 kWh 2030 – 44 kWh

EFG 2007 Meeting 42

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

US AVG So. Atl.

Portable Electric Spa (Hot Tub) Saturation

UEC: 2005 – 2525 kWh 2030 – 2375 kWh

EFG 2007 Meeting 43

A Change in the Weather –Changing HDD/CDD Normals

John CymbalskyPresentation to EFG

May 3, 2007

EFG 2007 Meeting 44

AEO 2007 Reference Case

• “Normal” Based on 1977-2006 Average• 2001-2006 NOAA Data Adjusted for State

Population Weights Post-2000 Census• Heating and Cooling Degree-Days

Change Over Projection Period Based on State Population Shifts (2007-2030)– Cooling Degree-Days Increase 8.3 percent– Heating Degree-Days Decrease 4.3 percent

EFG 2007 Meeting 45

Weather Scenarios

• Scenario 1: 10 Year Rolling Average– Cooling Degree-Days Increase 5% in 2030– Heating Degree-Days Decrease 5% in 2030– Total Energy Consumption Decreases 0.2% in 2030– Carbon Emissions Increase 0.2% in 2030– Natural Gas Consumption Decreases 0.4% in 2030– Natural Gas Prices Decrease by 0.5% in 2030– Cooling Energy Increases 5.2% in 2030– Heating Energy Decreases 3.8% in 2030– Total Energy Expenditures Decrease

EFG 2007 Meeting 46

Weather Scenarios - Continued• Scenario 2: 1992-2006 Trendline

– Roughly Similar to ORNL “3 degree increase by 2025 scenario”

– Cooling Degree-Days Increase 30% in 2030– Heating Degree-Days Decrease 21% in 2030– Total Energy Consumption Decreases 0.4% in 2030– Carbon Emissions Unchanged in 2030– Natural Gas Consumption Decreases 0.7% in 2030– Natural Gas Prices Decrease by 1.1% in 2030– Cooling Energy Increases 29.6% in 2030– Heating Energy Decreases 14.2% in 2030– Total Energy Expenditures Increase

EFG 2007 Meeting 47

Cooling Degree Days

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

1600

1700

1800

1900

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

CDD-30 YEAR (AEO) CDD-10 YEAR ROLL CDD-TREND 1992-2006

EFG 2007 Meeting 48

Heating Degree Days

3000

3200

3400

3600

3800

4000

4200

4400

4600

4800

5000

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

HDD-30 YEAR (AEO) HDD-10 YEAR ROLL HDD-TREND 1992-2006

EFG 2007 Meeting 49

Change in Energy Consumption, 2030 (quadrillion Btu)Scenario 1: 10-Year Moving Average

0.00

-0.22

0.13

0.00

0.22

0.00

-0.26

0.040.00

-0.23

0.03

-0.03

-0.30

-0.20

-0.10

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

Buildings Electric Generators

Liquids Natural Gas Coal Nuclear Electricity Total

EFG 2007 Meeting 50

Change in Energy, 2030 (quadrillion Btu)Scenario 2: 1992-2006 Trendline

-0.82

0.00

-0.26-0.14

-0.03

0.66

0.24

0.00 0.00

0.29

-0.73

0.57

-1.00

-0.80

-0.60

-0.40

-0.20

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

Buildings Electric Generators

Liquids Natural Gas Coal Nuclear Electricity Total

EFG 2007 Meeting 51

Electricity Sales in Alternative Warming Scenarios(billion kilowatthours)

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

2006 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

reference 30-year rolling 10-year trend 1992-2006

Warming impact on electricity sales through 2030 is small

EFG 2007 Meeting 52

2030 Load Curve in Alternative Warming Scenarios(gigawatts)

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

1,100

1,200

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000

trend 1992-2006 reference 30 year rolling 10-year

Shift from 30-year to 10-year rolling CDD and HDD averages has little impact on load curves. Only extreme shift to 1992 (near minimum CDDs in last 15 years) to 2006 (near maximum in last 15 years) trend leads to strong growth in peak demand.

Higher Summer

Lower Winter

EFG 2007 Meeting 53

Summary• Warming Scenarios Decrease Overall Energy

Consumption• Increases in Natural Gas Consumption in the Power

Sector More Than Offset by Decreases in Natural Gas Consumption in the Buildings Sector

• Greater warming leads to higher summer loads, lower winter loads and greater dependence on natural gas simple combustion turbines and combined cycle plants

• Carbon Emissions Not Affected Much• Natural Gas Prices Not Affected Much• Total Energy Expenditures Not Affected Much

EFG 2007 Meeting 54

2005 Max and Min Load Days, PJM-E

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23

Hours of the Day

Meg

awat

ts

27-Jul 30-May

Source: www.pjm.com