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CHINA SETS SAIL UNDER NEW LEADERSHIP: 2013 REFORMS March 2013 Mansfield Mok Portfolio Manager New Capital China Equity Fund For Qualified and Accredited Investors Only

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  • 1. CHINA SETS SAIL UNDER NEW LEADERSHIP: 2013 REFORMS Mansfield Mok Portfolio Manager New Capital China Equity FundFor Qualified and Accredited Investors Only March 2013

2. China Sets Sail for New Leadership: 2013 ReformsPolicy Statements From President HuTop priority: Stimulate domestic consumption and implement banking reformPresident Wu Speech on 8 November 2012 Build a moderately prosperous society by 2020 Double 2010 GDP and per capita income for both urban and rural residents by 2020 Deepen reform of financial system Development of next generation information infrastructure China GDP per Capita * 2010 2020** Urban Household Rmb 21,033 (USD 3,183)Rmb 42,066 (USD 7,011) Rural Household Rmb 8,119 (USD 1,229) Rmb 16,238 (USD 2,706) Source: CEIS, Nomura Note: ** 2020 GDP per capita assumption: GDP per capita double in RMB terms and 6 RMB per USD 3. China Sets Sail for New Leadership: 2013 ReformsReforms Create OpportunitiesMost likely reforms in the coming 3-4 yearsMost likely reformsPossible reforms Least likely reformsResource pricing reformPersonal income tax reform SOE reformInterest rate liberalisation Hukou reform Property taxCapital account liberalisation Rural land reformCentral-local relationsGreater exchange rate flexibilityBudget transparencyVAT reform De-monopolisationResource/environmental tax Pension reformreformIncrease in social spendingRelaxing one-child policy Source: Deutsche Bank 4. China Sets Sail for New Leadership: 2013 ReformsBanking Sector TrendNon traditional loan credit is rising; Non bank financials will become a fast growingsector. Breakdown of Total Credit (%) CAGRs (%) 200920122009-2012Traditional Loan 74.467.316.5Social Financing (defined by PBOC) 21.428.031.7 Entrusted Loans6.2 7.025.4 Trust Loans & others 2.1 3.137.2 Banker Acceptance Bills5.6 7.633.6 Corporate Bonds5.5 7.935.7Other Non Bank Financing4.2 4.725.6Total Credit100100 20.5Total Credit ex-RMB Loan 30.137.029.0 Source: PBOC, CBRC, CEIC, Bernstein 5. China Sets Sail for New Leadership: 2013 ReformsEconomic Activities: Moving West and Central 2012 Real China: Real GDP growth of 9.4% in 2011GDP GrowthChina7.8%Beijing7.7%Shanghai 7.5%Zhejiang 8.0%Guangdong 10.2%Guizhou 13.6%Chongqing 13.6%Sichuan 12.6%Inner 11.7%Mongolia Source: National Bureau of Statistics China Database 6. China Sets Sail for New Leadership: 2013 ReformsChina Selects The Regional Expansion Model Source: McKinsey Global Institute 7. China Sets Sail for New Leadership: 2013 ReformsConsumer Demand Will Come in WavesVariation in income level across China: Tier 2 markets are experiencing strong growthnow. Source: China Statistical Year Book, Deutsche Bank 8. China Sets Sail for New Leadership: 2013 ReformsGlobal Financial Crisis: An Opportunity for China The current financial crisis presents an opportunity for China Low interest rates will prevail and surplus liquidity will look for areas with strong growth potential Chinese central government has healthy balance sheet and stronger economic growth vs. G3 Policy reforms taking place: Economic driver: domestic consumption will take the lead supported by the increase in minimum wage Pricing reform: facilitated by lower commodity prices and low inflation rate Financial System ReformReal GDP Growth Outlook10Current Total 8 Countrie Accoun Fiscal GrossReturn s tDeficitsPublic Debt(USD)* 6 US-2.9 7.892 24.5% 4 Japan1.111.3 2431.6% 2 Euro area1.0 3.2948.6% 0 China3.0 1.6424.5%-2 All figures are CS estimates and represented as % of 2012 GDPChinaJapan US Euro World*Note: Index performance from 1 Jan 2011 to 31 Jan 2013US( SPX Index); Japan (NKY Index); Euro (SX5E Index); China (MXCN Index) 2011 2012E 2013F Source: Morgan Stanley 9. China Sets Sail for New Leadership: 2013 ReformsSentiments Shifting To A Soft Landing ScenarioThe bear arguments look overstated and there are some signs of shifting sentiment. Concern about property crash in China Signs of stability in the equity market: Property selling prices have stabilised Economists on the bear camp are changing their Loan-to-value ratio of 60-65% should providetone after the improving economic numberscushion to the banking system Some brokers are making a Buy call onChina. e.g. Credit Suisse Fear of banking crisis in China Continuous inflows into Asian markets LGFV loan Refinanced by the fast growing corporatebond market Shadow banking defaults No new cases reported Surge in NPL Reported NPL is still below 2% and loangrowth remains healthy at 15% Worries of a hard landing There are some early signs of stabilisation: 3Q GDP growth stabilises at 7.3% China M2 growth bottomed at 13.5% inAug and up 14.8% in Sept9 10. China Sets Sail for New Leadership: 2013 ReformsChina Stock Market: An Attractive Asset Class MSCI China 12 month Fwd P/E(X)* Attractive valuation Valuations at historically low level in both P/B and P/E terms Under-owned asset class APAC hedge fund managers are stillbearish on China as reported by CreditSuisse Prime Services dataNet exposure Change Since March 2012** (%pt) Removal of political uncertainties1.50%1.00%0.50%0.00% Structural change in industries -0.50% -1.00% Creates opportunities to new players -1.50% -2.00% and industries who are at the early stage -2.50%of their S-Curve -3.00% -3.50% e.g. Banking and consumer N ZealandChina ong ongJapan ustraliaAustralia IndonesiaIndonesiaIndia Singapore India Taiwan IndonesiaHong KongKoreaPhilippines ChinaJapan ingaporeorea hilippines Newew Zealand alaysiaan sectorsTaiwH K KAMS PSource: * Nomura Securities ** Credit Suisse 11. China Sets Sail for New Leadership: 2013 ReformsThe Performance Gap Should NarrowBig changes after the US election and new Chinese leadership US Market Worries of fiscal cliff Concern about raisingtax China Market Removal of political uncertainties Soft landing of economySource: Bloomberg as at 25 Feb 2013 12. China Sets Sail for New Leadership: 2013 ReformsInvestment PhilosophyIdentify stocks with Re-rating Potential Zone A: Re-Rating (Accumulate)Company gradually increases its market shareand gains pricing powerInvestors are sceptical about the growthpotential of the company and put in a lowvaluation. e.g. Insurance companies in the current cycle are trading at historic low New Business Multiple despite the low penetration rate of insurance product Zone B: De-Rating (Reduce)Company sees declining growth Chinese oil companies saw a sharp decline in production growth over the years. They became utilities and experienced P/E contraction 13. China Sets Sail for New Leadership: 2013 ReformsEconomic Growth vs Index PerformanceIndex performance fell behind GDP growth during 2007-2012 and 2010-2012 China Nominal GDPMSCI China Index Performance compound annual Growth compound annual return p.a.p.a. 3 Year to 6 Years to 3 Years to6 Years to 2006 +16.8+14.6+24.5 +24.0 2007 +18.5+15.9+43.7 +28.3 2012 +15.0+15.7 -4.0-0.6 Source: Bloomberg 14. China Sets Sail for New Leadership: 2013 ReformsTop 10 MSCI China Index ComponentsWeighting of mature companies rising80% of top 10 Index component are mature companies and may not catch up with the economicgrowth of China MSCI China Dec 2012% Outlook and ViewChina Mobile 9.91 Mature; Zone BCCB H8.17 De-rating due to interest rate deregulationICBC H 6.52 De-rating due to interest rate deregulationCNOOC5.45 Mature; Zone BBOC H4.74 De-rating due to interest rate deregulationTencent4.60Petrochina H 4.22 Mature; Zone BChina Life Insurance 3.43China Petroleum & Chemical 2.68 Mature; Zone BPing An Insurance2.22Source: Nomura 15. China Sets Sail for New Leadership: 2013 ReformsChinas Investment Outlook Sustainable, above average economic growth Among the major economies, China offers attractive GDP growth of 7% pa backedby fiscal stimulus China is changing its economic model to one that is based on self-sustainabledomestic consumption Supported by healthy demographics and high saving rates Global interest rate to stay low for a longer period of time The US Federal Reserve expects fed fund rate to stay below 0.25% until mid 2015 In view of lacklustre global economy and low inflationary pressure, PBOC will continue the monetary easing policy Attractive valuation Market is trading at historical low levels in both P/B and P/E terms Change of leadership Removal of politic uncertainties Risks Geo-political uncertainty 16. China Sets Sail for New Leadership: 2013 ReformsCurrent Investment ThemesDomestic Consumption Products with low penetration rates: e.g. autos, Smartphones, insurance products Consumer companies with pricing power and good distribution networks Consumer staples benefit from rising rural consumptionRMB Internationalisation Stronger pipeline for RMB offshore products Banking reform Deregulation of Chinas interest rate policyGradual breakdown of old monopoly Structural de-rating of some State Owned Enterprises e.g. Big policy banksInternet Boom Growing importance of E-commerce and on-line shopping Rising CAPEX for telecom operators 17. China Sets Sail for New Leadership: 2013 ReformsPositioning & OutlookOverweight Information technology Telecom equipment provider Autos and consumer staplesUnderweight Chinese banks but overweight special lenders, insurance and HK financials Telecom operators because of rising expenses due to handset subsidy Energy. Prefer refineries as they are beneficiaries of Chinas pricing reform. Zero weighting in materials and capital goodsStrategy Cautiously optimistic Market liquidity is an overhang but should improve in 1Q 2013 Increase exposure to growth stocks to be funded by selling high dividend yield stocks 18. China Sets Sail for New Leadership: 2013 ReformsTop 10 HoldingsAs at 31 January 2013 Holding %Tencent Holdings 5.3New China Life H Share 5.1Wilmar International 4.8China Life H Share 4.7Hong Kong Exchange & Clearing4.5Dah Chong Hong 4.3Far East Horizon 4.3Wharf Holdings 4.3China Everbright Ltd 4.0PICC P&C 3.8 19. China Sets Sail for New Leadership: 2013 ReformsNew Capital China Equity FundInvestment objective & strategy. The New Capital China Equity Fund invests in equities of public companies with significant business activities in the Peoples Republic ofSub-Fund NameNew Capital China Equity Fund China and Hong Kong. The equities are quotedEquities Long Only, with options andInvestment Style securities listed or traded on stock exchangesfutures for protection worldwideMarketsChina and Hong Kong primarily (all caps) The investment strategy adopts a fundamental Benchmark MSCI China Index stock-picking approach by investing in small, Base Currency USD medium and large companies which have re-rating potentialMax Cash No cash limit and no leverage UCITS IV New Capital UCIT FUND Stock selection is driven by bottom-up analysis ofPLCFund Entity earnings outlook, profitability trend, balance sheetRegulated by the Central Bank of strength and management quality of a companyIreland Base Fee1.75% (Ordinary) 0.90% (Institutional) The investment horizon of the strategy is between Liquidity Daily dealing one to three years, allowing the hidden potential of the companies to be reflected in the share price over time to achieve capital appreciation 20. China Sets Sail for New Leadership: 2013 ReformsPeer Group Performance ComparisonNew Capital China Equity Fund outperformed peers and benchmark since inception(20/8/2012)Source: Bloomberg as at 25 Feb 2013 21. China Sets Sail for New Leadership: 2013 ReformsStock Example: Wharf Holdings (4 HK Equity)A big landlord in China. 72.00Wharf is a major beneficiary of rising Chinese 70.00 68.00tourism through its retail property portfolios in 66.00 64.00Hong Kong which provides good cash flow for 62.00 60.00building its empire in China 58.00 56.00 54.00Rental income from China could jump at leastPrice 52.00 50.00 48.004x after the completion of 2.1m sqm 46.00 44.00International Finance Centres in five second 42.00 40.00tier cities 38.00 36.00 34.00Wharf stands out from its Chinese property 32.00peers because of its prudent management Mar-11 May-11Jun-11 Jul-11Oct-11 Nov-11Dec-11 Jan-12Feb-12 Mar-12 May-12Jun-12 Jul-12Oct-12 Nov-12Dec-12 Jan-13 Sep-11 Sep-12Apr-11Aug-11Apr-12Aug-12and healthy balance sheetDateSource: Bloomberg 22. China Sets Sail for New Leadership: 2013 ReformsAn Experienced Investment TeamA dedicated, locally-based team supported globally. Years denote investment experience in industry. Please refer to individual biographies within this presentation for more information. 23. China Sets Sail for New Leadership: 2013 ReformsAppendix 24. China Sets Sail for New Leadership: 2013 ReformsDefinition Of Various China SharesA-Share: RMB-denominated ordinary share. It is issued by domestic companies for trade with RMBby domestic institutions, organizations and individuals (exclude Taiwan, HK and Macao investors).B-Share: RMB-denominated special share. It is traded in foreign currency on the Shanghai andShenzhen markets. B-share transaction was only for natural persons, legal persons and otherorganizations overseas or in Taiwan, HK and Macao, Chinese citizens settled in foreign countries,and other investors allowed by the CSRC. After February 19, 2001, the commission opened the B-share market to domestic investors with foreign currency.H-Share: companies incorporated in Mainland China and whose listings in Hong Kong are approvedby the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC). Shares in these companies are listed inHong Kong, subscribed for and traded in Hong Kong dollars or other currencies, and referred to asH shares.Red Chip: enterprises that are incorporated outside of the Mainland and are controlled by MainlandGovernment entities. The most important difference between a red chip company and an H-sharecompany is that a red chip company is not Mainland-incorporated Source: China Securities Regulatory Commission website HK Stock Exchange website 25. China Sets Sail for New Leadership: 2013 ReformsMSCI China Index Top Ten Components2007 vs 2012Dec 2012% Dec 2007% China Mobile9.91 China Mobile 17.57 CCB H 8.17 China Life Insurance 6.05 ICBC H6.52 Petrochina 5.60 CNOOC 5.45 CNOOC4.28 BOC H 4.74 China Petroleum & Chemical 4.20 Tencent 4.60 CCB H3.47 Petrochina H4.22 ICBC H 3.46 China Life Insurance3.43 China Shenhua3.19 China Petroleum & 2.68 Ping An Insurance2.50 Chemical Ping An Insurance 2.22 BOC H1.83 Source: Nomura 26. China Sets Sail for New Leadership: 2013 ReformsHighlights of Investment ThemesExtract from Chinas Stock Market: A Stock Pickers Paradise (Oct/Nov 2012) 27. China Sets Sail for New Leadership: 2013 ReformsRMB Internationalisation: Banking ReformChina banks are to focus on their main banking business. Basel III: Banks are required to increase their Capital Adequacy Ratios and have no additional capital for other businesses e.g. insurance Interest rate deregulation: This will break the oligopoly of the big five banks and provide a more favourable operating environment for other specialty lenders Deepening/broadening corporate bond market: This will result in an additional funding source for new players. Emergence of the non-bank financial sector: Insurance and specialty lender 28. China Sets Sail for New Leadership: 2013 ReformsInsurance: An Underpenetrated Business GDP, Penetration and Life Market (Life Insurance penetration vs. GDP per Capita Mature2011 Premium as % of GDP MarketsFutureGiantsEmerging Markets 2011 GDP per Capita (US$) Source: IMF, Swiss Re, Manulife 29. China Sets Sail for New Leadership: 2013 ReformsChina Consumption Has a Much Bigger ScaleIncomes are rising in developing economies faster, and at a greater scale, than atany previous point in history.1Time to increase per capita GDP in PPP terms from $1,300 to $2,600 Source: McKinsey Global Institute 30. China Sets Sail for New Leadership: 2013 ReformsA Big Increase in Middle Income Group Chinas middle income consumer household is expected to reach 166m by 2020, double the total of US, Japan and Germany combined. The increase in middle income consumers should support the demand for discretionary goods. Source: McKinsey Insights China 31. China Sets Sail for New Leadership: 2013 ReformsStrong Demand for DiscretionaryRising importance of consumer spending.31 Source: McKinsey Insights China 32. China Sets Sail for New Leadership: 2013 ReformsDisclaimer For the purposes of distribution to Institutional Clients, which are defined as those non- The Analysis and research in this publication is intended for the private use of the clients Retail Clients falling within the UK Financial Services Authoritys categories ofand investors of EFG Asset Management (UK) Limited. The information and data Professional clients or eligible counterparties, this document has been approved and contained in this publication has been obtained form sources believed to be reliable, but issued by EFG Asset Management (UK) Limited, which provides, manages and is not guaranteed. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. administers the products and services described herein.EFG Asset Management (UK) Limited expressly disclaims any liability, includingincidental or consequential damages, arising from errors or omissions in this publication. EFG Asset Management (UK) Limited is authorised and regulated by the FinancialReproduction of this publication, either in whole or in part, is expressly prohibited without Services Authority. EFG Asset Management (UK) Limited is registered in England andthe written permission of EFG Asset Management (UK) Limited. The research and Wales No 7389736 and a member of EFG International.analysis included herein has been procured by EFG Asset Management (UK) Limited for The registered Office for EFG Asset Management (UK) Limited is Leconfield House, its own purposes and may have been acted upon for their own purposes. Data used in Curzon Street, London W1J 5JB. this publication has been obtained from a variety of sources including Bloomberg,Thomson Reuters, OECD, World Bank, IMF, ISI. Disclaimer32