European Forest Sector Outlook Study

European Forest Sector Outlook Study

UNECE Timber Committee and FAO European Forestry CommissionUNECE/FAO Timber Branch

UNECE/FAO Timber Branch

The UNECE Timber Committee (TC) and the FAO European

Forestry Commission (EFC) work together to promote sustainable

forest management in Europe, the CIS and North America



•Analyses past trends and future outlook for the supply and demand of the goods and services provided by the European forests•Provides a more detailed analysis of the outlook for the centrally planned economies, non-wood forest products and services, forest management and policy•Special emphasis on cross-sectoral policy linkages•Available in paper and on the web

The Study



The EFSOS Region



Structure of presentation

•Main past trends•Outlook•Issues•Follow-up


NECE/FAO Timber Branch

Main trends: the European Forest

•Area expanding•Harvest well below increment•Growing stock constantly rising•Plantation and forest improvement programmes•Problems for resource mobilisation in some countries (small owners)


UNCE/FAO Timber Branch

Main trends: Forest products and services

•Collapse in eastern Europe and CIS, followed by (partial) recovery•Reconstituted panels have grown faster than sawnwood•=> more demand for small wood, recovered materials: in western Europe, in 2000, industrial roundwood < 50% of raw material used•Non-wood products equivalent to perhaps 10-25% of value of total forestry production, services the same•Intensification of international trade•Long term decline in prices



0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Year

Sta

nd

ing

sale

s p

rice

(in

EU

R p

er C

UM

at

2000

pri

ces) Finland - pine pulpwood Finland - spruce pulpwood

Finland - birch pulpwood Sweden - all species and sizes

ROUNDWOOD PRICES FALLING



40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Year

Indu

stri

al r

ound

woo

d co

nsum

ptio

n as

a p

ropo

rtio

n of

to

tal e

stim

ated

con

sum

ptio

n of

woo

d ra

w m

ater

ials

WesternEurope

CIScountries

EasternEurope

INDUSTRIAL ROUNDWOOD AS % OF TOTAL FIBRE CONSUMPTION



Some other trends…

•Increased emphasis on environmental policies and sustainable development at all levels•Changes in ways government works in the sector: pressures for efficiency and clarity etc.



Main policies influencing the forest sector

•Greater emphasis on biodiversity and nature conservation•Agricultural, rural and regional development policies•Consequences of the transition process•Globalisation, innovation and market structures•Energy, environment, climate changeSource: Thoroe et al. (2004)



Some rough orders of magnitude:

(EUR billion, western Europe/EU)•Value of wood production: 9.9•Value of non-wood forest products (excl. nuts): 1.5•Value of forest recreation: 2.6•Incentives from the state for forestry (national + EU, including fiscal measures and grants, 11 countries): 6.0 (wood production in those countries = 7)Source: EFSOS sections 2.10, 2.11



OUTLOOK



DRIVING FORCES

•Continued economic growth, but slower than in the past (2.2% p.a.)•Convergence of living standards in west and east•Ageing population•3 scenarios: baseline, “conservation”, “integration”



Main policy relevant forecasts (1)

•Recycling and residue use will continue to expand•Renewable energy policies will increase demand for wood•Europe’s forest resource will continue to expand•Fellings will remain below annual increment in Europe



Main policy relevant forecasts (2)

•Forest products trade will intensify further•Economic viability of forest management will remain threatened•Forestry sector institutions will continue to evolve rapidly



0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Year

Am

ount

(in

mil

lion

cub

ic m

etre

s W

RM

E)

Paper and paperboard

Net pulp exports

Reconstituted panels

Sawnwood, plywood and veneer

Other industrial roundwood

Demand for wood in EUROPE (total), by product



0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Year

Am

ount

(in

mil

lion

cub

ic m

etre

s W

RM

E)

Paper and paperboard

Net pulp exports

Reconstituted panels

Sawnwood, plywood and veneer


DEMAND FOR FOREST PRODUCTS, WESTERN EUROPE



0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Year

Am

oun

t (i

n m

illi

on c

ub

ic m

etre

s W

RM

E)

Recovered paper

Net pulp imports

Industrial roundwood

Total wood and fibre requirement

FIBRE SUPPLY, WESTERN EUROPE



0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Year

Am

oun

t (i

n m

illi

on c

ub

ic m

etre

s W

RM

E)

Recovered paper

Net pulp imports

Industrial roundwood

Total wood and fibre requirement

FIBRE SUPPLY FOR PAPER, SAWNWOOD AND PANELS, TOTAL EUROPE



Other paper and paperboard

Woodfuel

Wood chips and particles

Wood residues

Plywood and veneer

Sawnwood

Fibreboard Particleboard Wood pulp

Recovered wood products Other fibre

pulpRecovered

paper

Recovered fibre pulp

Mechanical wood pulp

Semi-chem. wood pulp

Chemical wood pulp

Dissolving pulp

NewsprintPrinting and writing paper

Roundwood


Pulpwood, round & split

Sawlogs and veneer logs

COMPLEX RAW MATERIAL FLOWS



0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

55%

60%

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

Year

Was

tep

aper

rec

over

y as

a p

rop

orti

on o

f

to

tal

pap

er a

nd

pap

erb

oard

con

sum

pti

on

WesternEurope

RECOVERY RATE WILL CONTINUE TO RISE



83.894.4 100.7

83.892.9 97.0

16.2

17.919.0

16.1

17.618.38.6

9.39.7

8.6

9.29.3

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

2000 2010 2020 2000 2010 2020

Gro

win

g st

ock

(in

bil

lion

m3 o

.b.)

CIS countries Western Europe Eastern Europe

Baseline scenario Integration scenario

GROWING STOCK, BY SCENARIO



0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2000 2010 2020 2000 2010 2020

Fel

lin

gs a

s a

pro

por

tion

of

ann

ual

in

crem

ent

CIS countries Western Europe Eastern Europe

Baseline scenario Integration scenario

HARVEST WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW INCREMENT



Policy recommendations: general

•Necessity of a cross-sectoral approach•Sector should be proactive on climate change issues (analysis, communication)•Improve monitoring of SFM•Governments work together on forest law enforcement and governance



Policy recommendations: markets

•Stimulate sound use of wood•Balanced implementation of wood energy policies•Develop the region’s comparative advantages



Policy recommendations: SFM

•Improve economic viability of forest management in Europe•Pay attention to employment and work force issues (age, lack of skills, low status)•Control forest fires and intensify international cooperation on fires



Policy recommendations: international cooperation

•Address threats to SFM in Balkans and CIS•Devote policy attention to consequences of shift in balance to the east•Share experiences on institutional change to countries in transition•Intensify input to global level: promote European experience in SFM



EFSOS follow up suggestions

•Stimulate EFSOS based policy discussion at national and regional levels•Stress importance of cross-sectoral dimension, explain/discuss issues•Improve understanding of energy outlook issues, tradeoffs•????



Thank you

•http://www.unece.org/trade/timber•[email protected]


Documents

European Forest Sector Outlook Study