The SSP-RCP scenarios and their use for forest sector outlooks€¦ · Streamlining the next round of Forest Sector Outlook Studies 12th – 13th of December, 2016, Pushkino, Russia

The SSP-RCP scenarios and their use for forest sector outlooks

Nicklas Forsell Ecosystems Services and Management Program International Institute for Applied System Analysis

Streamlining the next round of Forest Sector Outlook Studies 12th – 13th of December, 2016, Pushkino, Russia

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

Established as a scientific bridge between East and West in 1972. Mission: provide insights and guidance to policymakers

worldwide by finding solutions to global and universal problems through applied systems analysis in order to improve human and social wellbeing and to protect the environment.


Policy & community outreach

DG Environment DG Climate DG Energy DG Agriculture

US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)

Governmental bodies International organisations

Research institutes

Multilateral initiatives JRC


In 2007, the IPCC asked the scientific community to develop a new set of climate scenarios for the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), expected to be published in 2013/2014.

Analysis of climate change and its policy implications needs an integrated assessment of mitigation, adaptation and residual climate impacts.

The idea for the SSPs came from the three key groups involved in climate science research—climate modelers (CM), integrated assessment modelers (IAM), and the impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability community (IAV).

Global IPCC scenarios for assessing cliamte adaptation and mitigation efforts


What are the SSP and RCPs? Shared Socieconomic reference Pathways (SSP):

Socioeconomic and ecological semi-qualitative specifications as needed by land use and energy system modelers. Five alternative trends of the evolution of society and

ecosystems. Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP): A scenario

providing the information as essential for climate modelers. Four greenhouse gas concentration trajectories in the fifth

Assessment Report (AR5) of the IPCC in 2011. The scenarios organize an infinite number of pathways that

the future could take into representative pathways to make consistent assumptions across models and researchers.


Shared Socioeconomic reference Pathways The key components of an SSP scenario


Shared Socioeconomic reference Pathways


Rapid development of low-income countries Reduction of global and national inequalities Rapid technological development High level of awareness regarding environmental degradation Open globalized economy R&D, technology transfers Clean energy technologies Low material growth and energy intensity Low population growth, high education investments Good governance Achievement of MGDs in next decades

SSP 1 “Sustainability” narrative


Regions of extreme poverty, pockets of moderate wealth, bulk of

countries struggling to maintain living standards for strongly growing population

Little coordination between regional blocks of countries Energy and food security within regions De-globalization, severe restrictions on international trade Little international cooperation Low investments in technology development and education High population growth , low economic growth Lack of governance and institutions

SSP 3 “Fragmentation” narrative


An SSP can be though of as a set of scenario specific assumptions concerning: Demographics: Population growth, Fertility, Mortality, Migration, Level and type of urbanization, Education Economy and lifestyles: Growth, Structure, Inequality, International trade, Globalization, Consumption, Diets Policies and institutions: International cooperation, Environmental policy, Institutions Technology: Development, Transfer, Carbon intensity, Energy Intensity Environment and natural resources: Fossil constraints, Environment, Agriculture

Shared Socioeconomic reference Pathways


SSP driver development: World population


SSP driver development: World GDP per capita development


Example of SSP narratives interpretation: Crop yields - World

SSP markers or RAPs (Representative Agricultural Pathways)

SSP driver development: Agriculture


Named after estimated radiative forcing values in the year 2100 relative to pre-industrial values: +2.6, +4.5, +6.0, and +8.5 W/m2

The scenarios provides information concernign the concentrations of GHGs needed to reach a specific climatic impact.

Representative Concentration Pathway


RCPs and global warming effects

Fuss et al. 2014. Betting on negative emissions. Nature Climate Change


Combination between SSPs and RCPs The SSPs and RCPs can be analysed in combination to assess

policies as needed and implication of mitigation/adaptation



policies as needed and implication of mitigation/adaptation The cost and impact of mitigation efforts



policies as needed and implication of mitigation/adaptation The cost and impact of mitigation efforts Cross sectorial impact of adaptation efforts


Global scale model based detailed spatial resolution (>200k cells) Partial equilibrium

Agricultural, forest and bioenergy markets 52 world regions, each EU28 MS are explicitly represented Bilateral trade flows Consistent with EUROSTAT data

Bottom-up approach Explicit description of production technologies Supply side based on NUTS2 administrative units EU Common Market

Linear programming approach Maximization of consumer + producer (incl. trade costs) surplus Non linear expansion costs

Time step: 10 years, time horizon: 2030/2050 but also 2100

Analysing the SSP-RCP space: GLOBIOM



Representation of wood flows in GLOBIOM GLOBIOM covers the main primary feedstocks, by-products, and semi-

finished HWP products. Wood flows as of 2010 is calibrated according to FAOSTAT.


Use of the model for Impact Assessment The model framework has been used for a number of Impact Assessment

for the European Commission as well as the development of Reference Scenarios


SSP-RCP impacts: Bioenergy demand Impact on biomass feedstock

categorized being used for bioenergy production.

The global use of woody biomass for bioenergy production is expected to increase in the RCP2.6: ~60% by 2050 ~480% by 2100

Total consumption of woody biomass for energy purposes is expected to increase significantly 3.1 Gm3 in 2010 10.1 Gm3 in 2050 27.2 Gm3 in 2100

0

50

100

150

200

250

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Bio

mas

s (E

J)

RCPref

non-woody biomass woody biomass energy crops

0

50

100

150

200

250

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Bio

mas

s (E

J)

RCP2.6

non-woody biomass woody biomass energy crops

Global biomass feedstock use for bioenergy production Including heat, electricity, and biofuels.


SSP-RCP impacts: Global HWP products

Increased bioenergy demand overall leads to: Increased total production of

HWP. Decreases profitability for

fiberboard producers. Increased profitability for

sawnwood producers. Increased consumption of

primary feedstocks (i.e. sawlogs, pulplogs).

Decreased consumption of industrial by-products for material use.

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Cha

nge

of b

iom

ass

use

(%)

sawlogs pulplogs

by-products total material use

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Cha

nge

of m

ater

ial p

rodu

ctio

n (%

)

Sawnwood ChemPulp MechPulp

Plywood Fiberboard total HWP

Global change in HWP production and biomass feedstock use for material production between PRCref and RCP 2.6


SSP-RCP impacts: Case of Sweden Assessment of supply and demand of wood in Sweden with Swedish

partners from the Swedish University of Agriculture sciences

Nordström et al. 2016.


SSP-RCP impacts: Case of Sweden


Short term: demand for timber (for energy and material production) is expected to be close to the maximal availability

Long term: demand for timber is expected to be hight if ambitious climate targets are to be meet


SSP-RCP impacts: Case of Sweden Continued strong demand of sawlogs in all scenarios

Mitigation targets have been assessed to have stronger impact on pulwood demand than that of sawlogs driven by changes in industrial demand



Conclusions

• The SSP – RCP scenario provide a common basis for climate modeling, impact, and policy response studies.

• The scenarios and underlying data sources are now freely available to be used for modelling purposes.

• First applications of the SSP-RCP scenarios for modelling of the forest sector have been done highlighting their use for forest outlook studies

• Still a lot of work on national regional implications of the SSP-RCP scenarios is needed


Thanks for your attention

Nicklas Forsell [email protected]

Documents

The SSP-RCP scenarios and their use for forest sector outlooks€¦ · Streamlining the next round of Forest Sector Outlook Studies 12th – 13th of December, 2016, Pushkino, Russia