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FEATURE Fuel Cells Bulletin February 2011 12 European Expert Group reports on future transport fuels Summary Transport fuel supply, in particular for the road sector, is currently dominated by oil, [1] which has proven reserves that are expected to last around 40 years. [2] The combustion of mineral oil-derived fuels gives rise to CO 2 emissions and, despite the improving fuel efficiency of new vehicles, total CO 2 emissions from trans- port increased by 24% between 1990 and 2008. This represents 19.5% of total European Union (EU) greenhouse gas emissions. The EU objective is an overall reduction of CO 2 emissions of 80–95% by 2050, with respect to the 1990 level. Decarbonization of transport and the substitution of oil as a trans- port fuel both have the same time horizon of 2050. Improved transport efficiency and man- agement of transport volumes are necessary to support the reduction in CO 2 emissions while fossil fuels still dominate, and to enable finite renewable resources to meet the full energy demand from transport in the long term. Alternative fuel options for substituting oil as an energy source for propulsion in transport are: • Electricity/hydrogen, and biofuels (liquids) as the main options. • Synthetic fuels as a technology bridge from fossil to biomass-based fuels. • Methane (natural gas and biomethane) as complementary fuels. • LPG as a supplementary fuel. Electricity and hydrogen are universal energy carriers and can be produced from all primary energy sources. Both pathways can in principle be made CO 2 -free; the CO 2 intensity depends on the energy mix for electricity and hydrogen production. The energy can be supplied via three main pathways: • Battery-electric, with electricity from the grid stored onboard vehicles in batteries. Power transfer between the grid and vehi- cles requires new infrastructure and power management. Application is limited to short- range road transport and rail. The highest priorities are the development of cost-com- petitive high energy density batteries and the buildup of a charging infrastructure. • Fuel cells powered by hydrogen, used for onboard electricity production. Hydrogen production, distribution, and storage require a new infrastructure. This application is unlikely for aviation and long-distance road transport. The highest priorities are the development of cost-competitive fuel cells, onboard hydrogen storage, and a strategic hydrogen fueling infrastructure. • Overhead line/third rail for tram, metro, trains, and trolley-buses, with electricity direct from the grid without intermediate storage. The main alternative fuels should be available EU-wide with harmonized standards, to ensure EU-wide free circulation of all vehicles. Incentives for the main alternative fuels and the correspond- ing vehicles should be harmonized across the EU to prevent market distortions, and to ensure economies of scale supporting the rapid and broad market introduction of alternative fuels. The main alternative fuels considered should be produced from low-carbon, and finally from carbon-free sources. Substitution of oil in trans- port by these main alternative fuels leads inher- ently to the decarbonization of transport if the energy system is decarbonized. Decarbonization of transport and decarbonization of energy should be considered as two complementary strategies, closely related but decoupled and requiring different technical approaches, to be developed in a consistent manner. The different transport modes require differ- ent options for alternative fuels: • Road transport could be powered by electric- ity for short distances, hydrogen and meth- ane up to medium distances, and biofuels/ synthetic fuels, LNG and LPG for long dis- tances. • Railways should be electrified wherever feasi- ble, otherwise use biofuels. • Aviation should be supplied from biomass- derived kerosene. • Waterborne transport could be supplied by biofuels (all vessels), hydrogen (inland water- ways and small boats), LPG (short-distance sea shipping), LNG and nuclear (maritime). Alternative fuels at core of sustainable transport Decarbonizing transport is a core theme of the EU 2020 strategy [3] and of the common transport policy. The long-term perspective for transport in Europe has been laid out in the Commission Communication on the Future of Transport of 2009. [4] The long-term objective of the European Union on CO 2 emissions is an overall reduction of 80–95% by 2050. The next 10 years are crucial for this 2050 vision. The upcoming White Paper on European transport policy for the next decade should outline a transport action program until 2020. It should define the overall framework for EU action over the next 10 years in the fields of transport infrastructure, internal mar- ket legislation, technology for traffic manage- ment, and decarbonization of transport through clean fuels and vehicles. Strategic initiatives that the European Commission is considering in this context should further develop the technology. The initiative on Clean Transport Systems, due by the end of 2011, should present a consistent long-term alternative fuel strategy and possible measures to take in the short and medium term. The Strategic Transport Technology Plan, anticipated by mid-2011, should set the priori- ties for research and technological development of key transport technologies, with an approach similar to the Strategic Energy Technology (SET) Plan launched for the energy sector. [5] In this context of revising existing policies and launching new strategic initiatives for more sustainable transport in the EU, the European Commission established in March 2010 a stakeholder Expert Group on Future Transport Fuels. This has the objective of providing advice Summarized by Steve Barrett – Editor The European Expert Group on Future Transport Fuels recently published its report on the future of fuels for transportation in the European Union. While this covered the range of alternative fuel options, from synthetic and biofuels to natural/biomethane and LPG, it also anticipates the increasing use of electricity and hydrogen in transportation out to 2050. This article extracts the report’s analysis of hydrogen in fuel cell vehicles, within the overall context of EU policy development to 2050.

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Page 1: European Expert Group reports on future transport fuels

FEATURE

Fuel Cells Bulletin February 201112

European Expert Group reports on future transport fuels

SummaryTransport fuel supply, in particular for the road sector, is currently dominated by oil,[1] which has proven reserves that are expected to last around 40 years.[2] The combustion of mineral oil-derived fuels gives rise to CO2 emissions and, despite the improving fuel efficiency of new vehicles, total CO2 emissions from trans-port increased by 24% between 1990 and 2008. This represents 19.5% of total European Union (EU) greenhouse gas emissions.

The EU objective is an overall reduction of CO2 emissions of 80–95% by 2050, with respect to the 1990 level. Decarbonization of transport and the substitution of oil as a trans-port fuel both have the same time horizon of 2050. Improved transport efficiency and man-agement of transport volumes are necessary to support the reduction in CO2 emissions while fossil fuels still dominate, and to enable finite renewable resources to meet the full energy demand from transport in the long term.

Alternative fuel options for substituting oil as an energy source for propulsion in transport are:

• Electricity/hydrogen, and biofuels (liquids) as the main options.

• Synthetic fuels as a technology bridge from fossil to biomass-based fuels.

• Methane (natural gas and biomethane) as complementary fuels.

• LPG as a supplementary fuel.

Electricity and hydrogen are universal energy carriers and can be produced from all primary energy sources. Both pathways can in principle be made CO2-free; the CO2 intensity depends on the energy mix for electricity and hydrogen production. The energy can be supplied via three main pathways:

• Battery-electric, with electricity from the grid stored onboard vehicles in batteries.

Power transfer between the grid and vehi-cles requires new infrastructure and power management. Application is limited to short-range road transport and rail. The highest priorities are the development of cost-com-petitive high energy density batteries and the buildup of a charging infrastructure.

• Fuel cells powered by hydrogen, used for onboard electricity production. Hydrogen production, distribution, and storage require a new infrastructure. This application is unlikely for aviation and long-distance road transport. The highest priorities are the development of cost-competitive fuel cells, onboard hydrogen storage, and a strategic hydrogen fueling infrastructure.

• Overhead line/third rail for tram, metro, trains, and trolley-buses, with electricity direct from the grid without intermediate storage.

The main alternative fuels should be available EU-wide with harmonized standards, to ensure EU-wide free circulation of all vehicles. Incentives for the main alternative fuels and the correspond-ing vehicles should be harmonized across the EU to prevent market distortions, and to ensure economies of scale supporting the rapid and broad market introduction of alternative fuels.

The main alternative fuels considered should be produced from low-carbon, and finally from carbon-free sources. Substitution of oil in trans-port by these main alternative fuels leads inher-ently to the decarbonization of transport if the energy system is decarbonized. Decarbonization of transport and decarbonization of energy should be considered as two complementary strategies, closely related but decoupled and requiring different technical approaches, to be developed in a consistent manner.

The different transport modes require differ-ent options for alternative fuels:

• Road transport could be powered by electric-ity for short distances, hydrogen and meth-ane up to medium distances, and biofuels/

synthetic fuels, LNG and LPG for long dis-tances.

• Railways should be electrified wherever feasi-ble, otherwise use biofuels.

• Aviation should be supplied from biomass-derived kerosene.

• Waterborne transport could be supplied by biofuels (all vessels), hydrogen (inland water-ways and small boats), LPG (short-distance sea shipping), LNG and nuclear (maritime).

Alternative fuels at core of sustainable transport

Decarbonizing transport is a core theme of the EU 2020 strategy[3] and of the common transport policy. The long-term perspective for transport in Europe has been laid out in the Commission Communication on the Future of Transport of 2009.[4] The long-term objective of the European Union on CO2 emissions is an overall reduction of 80–95% by 2050.

The next 10 years are crucial for this 2050 vision. The upcoming White Paper on European transport policy for the next decade should outline a transport action program until 2020. It should define the overall framework for EU action over the next 10 years in the fields of transport infrastructure, internal mar-ket legislation, technology for traffic manage-ment, and decarbonization of transport through clean fuels and vehicles.

Strategic initiatives that the European Commission is considering in this context should further develop the technology. The initiative on Clean Transport Systems, due by the end of 2011, should present a consistent long-term alternative fuel strategy and possible measures to take in the short and medium term. The Strategic Transport Technology Plan, anticipated by mid-2011, should set the priori-ties for research and technological development of key transport technologies, with an approach similar to the Strategic Energy Technology (SET) Plan launched for the energy sector.[5]

In this context of revising existing policies and launching new strategic initiatives for more sustainable transport in the EU, the European Commission established in March 2010 a stakeholder Expert Group on Future Transport Fuels. This has the objective of providing advice

Summarized by Steve Barrett – Editor

The European Expert Group on Future Transport Fuels recently published its report on the future of fuels for transportation in the European Union. While this covered the range of alternative fuel options, from synthetic and biofuels to natural/biomethane and LPG, it also anticipates the increasing use of electricity and hydrogen in transportation out to 2050. This article extracts the report’s analysis of hydrogen in fuel cell vehicles, within the overall context of EU policy development to 2050.

Page 2: European Expert Group reports on future transport fuels

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February 2011 Fuel Cells Bulletin13

to the Commission on the development of political strategies, and specific actions to sub-stitute fossil oil as a transport fuel in the long term, and decarbonizing transport, while allow-ing for economic growth.

The Expert Group has considered the mix of future transport fuels to have the potential for:

• fully meeting transport energy demand by 2050;

• a low-carbon energy supply to transport by 2050; and

• a sustainable and secure transport energy supply beyond 2050.

Energy carriers as transport fuels should be given particular attention, as they can be pro-duced from a wide range of primary energy sources. They allow transport to take full advantage of the expected gradual decarbon-ization of the energy system, resulting from a steady increase in the share of non-CO2 emitting energy sources. Energy carriers as fuels also ensure the security of energy supply to transport by providing diversification of energy sources and suppliers, while allowing for a smooth transition from fossil to renewable energy sources.

The Expert Group was allocated the follow-ing main tasks:

• Assess market potential, technological issues, economic viability, industrial implications, social and demographic aspects, environmen-tal impacts, and safety of the different fuels considered as part of a long-term oil substitu-tion for transport fuels.

• Consider factors that could affect long-term viability of alternatives, including security of supply, availability of feedstock, and resources required for the fuel chain.

• Design scenarios towards full substitution of fossil energy sources for transport fuels.

• Devise a development and field testing pro-gram, and identify needs for public support.

• Recommend actions and policy measures towards full substitution of oil as a transport fuel.

Alternative fuel optionsEnergy supply for transport could take a large number of different pathways as shown in Figure 1. Competing sectors for the same primary energy sources, such as industry and households, are also shown in Figure 1. The assessment of future transport energy needs and potential supplies therefore has to be embed-ded into a more general consideration of total energy consumption and total global potential.

Alternative fuels such as electricity, hydrogen, biofuels, synthetic fuels, methane or LPG will gradually become a much more significant part

of the energy mix; no single substitution can-didate is anticipated. Fuel demand and green-house gas challenges will most likely require the use of a great variety of primary energy sources.

Technical and economic viability, efficient use of primary energy sources, and market acceptance will be decisive for the competitive acquisition of market share by the different fuels and vehicle technologies. Any new fuels should demonstrate their availability, afford-ability, and reliability. Compatibility with existing fuels and vehicle technologies would facilitate a smooth market transition, and optimize the total system cost and customer acceptance.

Political and regulatory support will be deci-sive in the first phase to support the develop-ment and market entry of alternative fuels able to respond to the decarbonization objectives.

Electric vehicles Electric propulsion of road vehicles is used in different configurations:

• Hybrid Electric Vehicle (HEV), using a com-bination of an internal combustion engine (ICE) and an electric motor. The fuel for the ICE is the only external energy input.

• Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle (PHEV), using the same powertrain as an HEV, but with the option of charging the battery by plugging into the grid.

• Range-extender vehicle (REV), representing another type of HEV, with propulsion from an electric motor, and charging of the bat-tery by plug-in to the electricity grid or by a gasoline ICE. When the battery is depleted, a small ICE working as a generator provides the electricity for propulsion and to charge the battery.

• Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV), with electric propulsion only, and external energy input only through charging the battery from the grid.

• Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicle (HFCV), with electric propulsion only, and external energy input through refueling an onboard hydro-gen tank.

• Onboard reformer, where the car is fueled with either bioethanol or biomethanol and the reformer converts the biofuel to hydro-gen. This may extend the operational range.

Only configurations with additional external energy input in the form of electricity (PHEV, plug-in REV, and BEV) or hydrogen (HFCV) offer routes to oil substitution and full decar-bonization. Battery and fuel cell technologies currently seem to be a medium- or long-term solution for sustainable mobility. The bottle-neck is the development of efficient batteries and fuel cells available at affordable prices, which will depend on mass production and economies of scale.

HydrogenHydrogen is a universal energy carrier, like electricity, which can be used for transport. Hydrogen can be produced from all primary resources, and therefore offers diversity of sup-ply of energy.

It is anticipated that hydrogen could be pro-duced cost-effectively at both small and large scale from centralized or decentralized produc-tion. It is currently used to supply energy to a wide variety of industrial applications.

The use of hydrogen in a fuel cell with an electric motor is an alternative and a comple-mentary solution to the storage of electricity in batteries for EVs or hybrids. It provides longer

Figure 1. Energy pathways in transport and other sectors. [Source: European Road Transport Research Advisory Council (ERTRAC)]

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Fuel Cells Bulletin February 201114

range and faster recharging compared to batter-ies in EVs. In the long term, it may be possible to use hydrogen in ICEs, either directly or blended with natural gas (up to 30%).

Technology Energy losses in hydrogen FCVs arise in the several energy conversion processes from the primary energy source to the final onboard electricity production, and its use for propul-sion through an electric motor. Nevertheless the energy efficiency of the final stage onboard a vehicle can be at least twice as high as with ICEs, as was shown in the European HyFLEET:CUTE hydrogen bus project.[6]

HFCVs have similar performance to ICE vehicles and hybrid solutions in terms of range, speed, refueling time, and car size.

The technology is ready for market entry. To date more than 400 HFCVs, in various sizes, have been driven more than 15 million km (9.4 million miles) with over 80 000 refueling pro-cedures. Essentially all the technological hurdles – heat management, efficiency, storage, platinum content – have been resolved. A recent study[7] showed that the cost of fuel cells could be further reduced by 90% by 2020, through innovations in design, different use of materials (e.g. reduced platinum use), further innovations in production technology, and economies of scale.

Infrastructure Hydrogen as an alternative fuel for transport requires the buildup of the necessary fueling infrastructure, to reach sufficient geographical coverage to accompany FCV market entry. The storage and distribution part of the infrastruc-ture can, for the market introduction phase, build on existing facilities for large-scale indus-trial use of hydrogen.

Infrastructure buildup for hydrogen and a comparison to the needs for battery electric vehicles (BEVs) have been assessed in a recent hydrogen study [see the feature in FCB, January 2011].[7] Costs for electrical and hydrogen infrastructure are comparable and affordable. It may not be wise to pick one or the other since they are complementary. Battery cars are more suited for the small size segment and shorter range, whereas fuel cell cars can serve larger cars and longer range.

Its modular nature means that an electric infrastructure is easier to build up in the begin-ning. However, infrastructure costs for HFCVs are expected to be less than those for BEVs in a later phase, after 2020. In a first hydrogen market buildup phase, E3–5 billion (US$4–7 billion) would need to be invested annually in infrastructure until 2020, based on an estimat-ed number of 1 million HFCVs. The invest-ment should be concentrated in areas of high population density (i.e. large cities), and build on existing infrastructure.

Additional cars reduce the infrastructure cost per unit. In a mature market phase, an annual investment of E2.5 billion ($3.5 billion) per year (70 million cars) is estimated to be needed for HFCVs, compared to some E13 billion ($18 billion) per year required for BEVs (200 million cars) until 2050.

Up to 2020 the focus should be on reducing the technological risk and building up an initial network and vehicle fleet. An economic gap of about E25 billion ($35 billion) would need to be overcome by leveraging financial support and close coordination at EU, national and regional level.

Between 2020 and 2030 the first steps will be taken and commercialization can get under way. The investment risks decrease as the fleet

increases and the technology is further tested. The cost for this initial buildup is estimated at about E75 billion ($104 billion). While a supportive funding mechanism may still be required, investment risks should become acceptable for private investors. After 2030, to achieve 25% market share in 2050, E100 bil-lion ($139 billion) would be needed for extra production, distribution and retail infrastruc-ture. This can be absorbed in the cost price of new cars, and a real competitive market with minimal public support can take off.

In terms of geographical coverage, territori-al spread is the key, and a gradual and coordi-nated buildup of infrastructure across Europe will be needed. A reasonable approach is to start in one or several geographical areas to de-risk the technology, then develop a rollout plan for Europe.

One should combine national and European longer-term interests, and allow smaller-scale demonstration and deployment projects to de-risk the technology and absorb the learning costs, reducing these for subsequent rollout projects. In this way private and public stake-holders can together build up a cost-effective European infrastructure.

Potential The hydrogen FCV has the greatest potential in the medium to larger car segment, as well as in longer-range buses. This segment represents more than 70% of the current car fleet.

Hydrogen has been produced for industrial applications in large quantities for about a century. The energy sector is a growing area of importance. Fuel cells are used in backup power systems (e.g. in manufacturing and tel-ecoms), and could play an important role as a storage mechanism for excess wind power and for balancing the grid in case of intermittence issues. Fuel cells and hydrogen are already com-mercially available in combined heat and power (CHP) applications in industry, as well as in mobile applications.

In transport, hydrogen is already commer-cially used in early markets like the logistics industry (e.g. forklifts). Areas of development are the urban public transport sector (buses, taxis), for which large-scale demonstration projects have been under way since 2003 to further develop the technology for commercial deployment.

Steam reforming of natural gas is currently the most commonly used technology to produce large quantities of hydrogen at low cost. The conversion of biomass to produce hydrogen offers a route to renewables in future. The devel-opment of this process to industrial maturity will benefit from the current program to scale up production of biofuels using gasification.

Figure 2. General Motors’ Opel subsidiary has been running a small fleet of HydroGen4 fuel cell cars in Germany, with partners such as Total involved in the hydrogen infrastructure. [Photo © GM Corp]

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February 2011 Fuel Cells Bulletin15

The preferred pathway for producing hydro-gen from non-fossil sources is by electrolysis of water. However, present technology is still expensive, and has mediocre efficiency. With greater use of fluctuating renewable energy sources, hydrogen is increasingly seen as a possible option for high-capacity, long-term (seasonal) energy storage. High-temperature thermochemical production of hydrogen, using solar or nuclear energy, could be another option for sustainable, CO2-free hydrogen production.

Resources for hydrogen production are not a limitation, as long as all primary energy sources can be used. Resource constraints on the total amount of energy available, however, require efforts on energy efficiency for a hydrogen econ-omy, as for all energy consumers. The cost of hydrogen production also needs to be reduced. Depending on the process, hydrogen production costs are expected to drop by 30–50% by 2050, together with an increasing diversification of the energy resource mix for production. Electricity, one of the main resources for hydrogen produc-tion, will increasingly come from renewable and low-carbon technologies.

Electric vehicles have the advantage of zero local emissions of pollutants and CO2. However, their overall carbon footprint depends on the technologies and sources used to produce elec-tricity and hydrogen. Using existing production technologies for electricity or hydrogen, CO2 emissions could be reduced by at least 30%. To fully decarbonize hydrogen production in the long term, both the development of CO2 cap-ture and storage (CCS) and increased renewable electricity production are needed.

The major automotive OEMs worldwide envisage introducing commercial fuel cell vehicles around 2015, scaling up to mass-production volumes by 2020.[7] However, cost reduction will be necessary to ensure a broad market take-up.

The fuel cell car will be ready for full market rollout by 2020–2025. Actual deployment, however, will rely on the existence of an ade-quate retail fueling network.

Economics of FCVs and hydrogen infrastructure

Hydrogen vehicles have been estimated at 4–5 times more expensive than gasoline/diesel ICE vehicles.[7] For a medium-size car, the difference would then amount to E150 000–200 000 ($208 000–277 000) in the pre-commercial phase.

After 2025, the total cost of ownership (TCO) of all powertrains is expected to con-verge, and by 2050 BEV, HFCVs and PHEVs could all become cost-competitive with ICEs,

and so be viable alternatives.[7] HFCVs will then have a TCO advantage over BEV and PHEVs in the heavy/long-distance car seg-ments; by 2030 they will be almost compara-ble to ICEs for larger cars, and considerably less expensive by 2050. With incentives, BEVs and HFCVs could be cost-competitive with ICE vehicles as early as 2020.

In a recent study presented to the Expert Group on Future Transport Fuels, the infrastruc-ture costs of hydrogen are anticipated to drop significantly, from E12 000 to E3000 ($16 600 to $4200) per vehicle in 2020. After 2020, the infrastructure costs for FCVs are expected to be less than for battery electric vehicles.

The same study presented investment costs of at least E500 000 to E1 million ($690 000 to $1.4 million) for a hydrogen fueling station under conditions of mass deployment (based on averaged proprietary industry data). Assuming a smaller number of hydrogen outlets in Europe as fueling stations (40 000) results in a total cost of E30 billion ($42 billion) for comprehensive coverage. A smaller number is sufficient as a new network allows optimization of the sites.

Hydrogen production costs are expected to be reduced by 40–50% by 2050. Current production costs of hydrogen for transport amount to E16.6 ($23) per kg delivered at the pump (1 kg allows around 100 km/60 miles driving range), with high retail costs. By 2025 this cost is projected to decrease by 70%, to E5.5 ($7.6) per kg, with the development of large plants and stations.

Strategy 2050A long-term view and a stable policy environ-ment are required to provide clear, consistent and unwavering signals to industry and investors on the necessary actions to substitute fossil fuels and decarbonize transport. A long-term trajecto-ry should therefore be defined for Europe within a predictable regulatory framework.

Policy and regulation should be technol-ogy-neutral, founded on a scientific assess-ment of the well-to-wheels CO2 emissions, energy efficiency, and cost associated with competing technology pathways. The incen-tives for alternative fuels should be based on their carbon footprint and their general sustainability.

Decarbonization of transport and of the energy system can therefore be considered as two complementary strategies. They are closely related, but can be decoupled and require dif-ferent technical approaches. Decarbonization of the energy carriers used in transport should progress at least with the rate of their intro-duction into the transport fuel mix. However, the decarbonization of the two systems needs to be undertaken in a complementary manner to ensure that the approaches are consistent.

The following additional issues should be taken into consideration for the different trans-port sectors:

Road transport:• Urban transport can be powered by several

alternative fuel options, i.e. electricity (battery-electric small vehicles or electric trolleys) and hydrogen; also by biofuel blends, neat syn-thetic fuels or paraffinic, methane or LPG.

• Medium-distance transport could be cov-ered by synthetic or paraffinic fuels, hydro-gen, biofuel blends, and methane. Possible competition also needs to be clarified, as hydrogen and methane require a new dedi-cated infrastructure.

• Long-distance transport can be supplied by biofuels or synthetic or paraffinic fuels, for freight possibly also by liquefied methane gas (LNG, LBG, LPG).

• In all cases (urban, medium and long distance), there will continue to be a

significant role to play for the internal combustion engine; advances in ICE technology can be expected.

Figure 3. Copenhagen is one of the limited number of European cities that currently operate a hydrogen fueling station. [Photo: H2 Logic]

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FEATURE

Other transport modes:• Railways and urban rail systems can further

contribute to decarbonizing transport, since power generation is being decarbonized throughout the EU.

• Aviation will be reliant on liquid kerosene, so syn-thetic biomass-derived fuels should be adopted.

• Waterborne transport could be supplied by syn-thetic or paraffinic fuels for all types of vessels; by hydrogen on inland waterways; biofuels, LPG, and LNG on short-distance sea shipping; and nuclear on long-distance shipping.

Road map 2010–2050Transitions in fuel supply infrastructure and vehicles will be needed for all new transport fuels. These transitions may need to be encour-aged or mandated throughout the EU Member States and coordinated at the EU level to drive the market forward.

The timing and priority of these transitions must be driven by:

• Cost of the transition to a new energy carrier in terms of infrastructure and vehicle cost.

• Potential carbon savings of the transition, taking into account the time needed to decarbonize the energy stream.

• Cost of decarbonizing the energy sources that feed into the energy stream.

• Availability of feedstock for decarbonizing energy sources, taking into account life-cycle aspects for the different fuel pathways.

Assuming that targets for CO2 reductions for transport continue increasing steadily to almost 100% by 2050, improved energy effi-ciency of transport operations and vehicles will allow several years to evaluate and develop technologies for alternative fuel systems that will require major transitions in infrastructure and vehicle design. Timely decisions on these major transitions can therefore be taken to ensure a cost-effective solution that is com-mensurate with adequate industrial lead-time.

A transition strategy will be necessary for the short and medium term. The following points could be used as guidelines to this aim:

• During the next decade, gasoline and diesel will remain the main fuels for transport, and are expected to stay at a similar level to today.

• Electricity use is expected to increase in the short to medium term. But for road trans-port, it may be confined to short-distance transport. To overcome this, fast-charging or battery-exchange infrastructure could be built up along trans-European transport net-work (TEN-T) corridors.

• Hydrogen could enter the broader market in the medium to long term, starting around 2015, and would then require strategic inte-

gration of hydrogen production and distribu-tion facilities in current transport infrastruc-ture planning (TEN-T).

• Liquid biofuels that fulfil all sustainability criteria should be developed, i.e. further improving current technologies and develop-ing new ones.

There is also a need to take a global perspective, especially for aviation and maritime applications. Furthermore, the European car manufactur-ing industry must be competitive on a global scale; eco-innovation can certainly contribute to this. On the other hand, emerging markets will gain in absolute and relative importance. The EU cannot afford to ignore technology choices beyond its borders. This suggests that some advanced fuel technologies (fuel cells, electric motors) may be confined to certain niches.

Policy actions to 2020

There are a number of factors that need to be taken into account in developing a coherent policy approach:

• Maintain focus on ‘systems solutions’ for sustainable transport. Fuel providers, vehicle providers and users must all contribute to a sustainable transport future, and policy should promote consistent and complementary action across all participants to foster the co-evolu-tion of the transport and energy systems.

• Maintain a portfolio approach when allocating priorities in funding in the Eighth Community R&D Framework Programme (2014–2020). All sustainable transport solutions, including demand management, are needed.

• Set a stable policy environment that delivers a clear and consistent signal to industry on the actions required to decarbonize transport.

• To stimulate all sustainable transport solu-tions, a wide range of complementary policy instruments, from regulation to market-based instruments, are needed.

• Policy and regulation should be technology-neutral, founded on a scientific assessment of the well-to-wheels greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions associated with competing transport pathways and the relevant life-cycle aspects.

• All fuel options will be required; hence a level playing field will provide the most effective mix of transport fuels to address the energy challenge.

• Regulation should avoid ‘double burdens’ imposed on fuel suppliers by overlapping policies that favor specific solutions.

• Sustainability standards are a key element of alternative fuels policy, to ensure that potential issues with bringing land into cultivation, pro-tection of rare habitats and species (biodiver-sity), and soil and water issues are managed.

• Solutions should be such that they can be used widely in Europe in all climatic conditions.

Legislation to support hydrogen• A basic EU hydrogen supply infrastructure

could be built on the existing demon-stration hydrogen fueling stations, and extended to an EU intercity network fueling infrastructure, with support from EU, national, and regional hydrogen develop-ment programs.

• Harmonized authorization procedures for hydrogen installations should be established, as well as harmonized standards for hydrogen fueling pipelines.

References1. EU Energy and Transport in Figures.

European Commission, 2010. Available online at http://ec.europa.eu/transport/publi-cations/statistics/statistics_en.htm

2. BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2010. BP, June 2010. Available online at www.bp.com/productlanding.do?categoryId=6929&contentId=7044622

3. Communication from the Commission: Europe 2020 – A strategy for smart, sus-tainable and inclusive growth. European Commission, Brussels, COM(2010) 2020, 3 March 2010. (Europe 2020 website: http://ec.europa.eu/europe2020/index_en.htm)

4. Communication from the Commission: A sustainable future for transport: Towards an integrated, technology-led and user friendly system. European Commission, Brussels, COM(2009) 279, 17 June 2009. (Future of Transport website: http://ec.europa.eu/transport/strategies/2009_future_of_transport_en.htm)

5. Communication from the Commission: A European strategic energy technology plan (SET-Plan). European Commission, Brussels, COM(2007) 723, Brussels, 22 November 2007. (SET Plan website at http://ec.europa.eu/energy/technology/set_plan/set_plan_en.htm)

6. Hydrogen transports – Bus technol-ogy & fuel for today & for a sustain-able future. HyFLEET:CUTE, 2009. Available online at http://hyfleetcute.com/data/HyFLEETCUTE_Brochure_Web.pdf

7. A portfolio of power-trains for Europe: a fact-based analysis. NEW-IG Secretariat/McKinsey, Brussels, Belgium, November 2010. Available online at: www.zeroemis-sionvehicles.eu [summarized in FCB, January 2011].

To download the complete report, Future

Transport Fuels: Report of the European

Expert Group on Future Transport Fuels

(January 2011), go to:

http://ec.europa.eu/transport/urban/vehicles/road/

clean_transport_systems_en.htm

16Fuel Cells Bulletin February 2011