Energy efficient transport in 2020, Paul Wuebben, Clean fuels officer, AQMD

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Energy Efficient Transport in 2020:Key Policy, Technology & Research Drivers

Paul Wuebben, Clean Fuels Officer

South Coast Air Quality Management District

Southern California Smart Grid Research Symposium

Davidson Conference Center

UNIVERSITY of SOUTHERN CALIFORNIAOctober 6, 2009

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Outline Why an interest in a Smart Grid? The need for Electric Drive (ED) Transport

Air Quality, Energy + Climate Change CA policies + Vehicle ED Market trends Smart Grid Deployment and Optimization:

Maximizing Renewable Generation Use Maximizing the deployment of plug in EVs

AQMD Smart Grid support policies

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1st: Why are we interested in a Smart Grid?

Reduce carbon emissions of transport sector Maximize use of off-peak renewable generation Minimize the need for large transmission capacity

through system demand disaggregation Enhance the business case for renewable

resources with capacity factors < fossil generation Achieve sustainable zero emission mobility Portal to large consumer + system efficiencies

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Convergence of Air Quality,

Climate & Energy Security

South Coast Air Basin: 25% of U.S. ozone exposure 50% of U.S. PM-10 exposure > 85% of airborne cancer risk from

petroleum fuel use (diesel + gasoline) Transportation sources: > 40% of CA GHG Energy security:

CA Transportation: > 95% reliance on petroleum

72% of U.S. oil supply is imported

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Airborne Cancer Risk Including Diesel: Ubiquitous + Petroleum Use Driven

South Coast Air Basin7

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U.S. Oil Market Dynamics

The Energy Challenge:

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10source: IPCC

Greenhouse Gas Emissions:Unprecedented Growth Rates = Unprecedented Problems

Source: James Hansen, 2008

Fossil Fuel Use: Largest Atmospheric Experiment in History

GHG BAU Impacts Extreme weather intensification Ocean effects

Acidification fisheries extinction Salinity effects current disruptions

Sea level rise Mega-Drought Levels Insect renaissance Fresh water supply shortages Severe economic losses

Warmer Days Lead To Both Higher Emissions + More Ozone

Source: Air Resources Board, 2000

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0.05

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0.15

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0.25

0.30

40 60 80 100 120

Ozo

ne (p

pm)

Temperature (oF)

Los Angeles Ozone Levels (1995-1998))

California Ozone Standard

Source: California Environmental Protection Agency

ENSO – El Nino Southern Oscillation (3 – 8 yr. cycle)

Climate Implications of High Carbon Fuel Use:

Teleconnections and Feedbacks

ENSOTriggering

IndianMonsoon

Transformation

Bodele DustSupply Change?

Bistability ofSaharan Vegetation

Bistability /Collapse ofAmazonian

Forest?

ReducedPerformance

of MarineCarbon Pump

Tibetan Albedo Change?

Teleconnections and Feedbacks

Atlantic DeepWater Formation

Southern Ocean Upwelling /Circumpolar Deep Water Formation

Instability of West Antarctic Ice Sheet?

Instability of MethaneClathrates

Instability ofGreenland Ice Sheet?

ENSOTriggeringBodele Dust

Supply Change?



Forest?

ReducedPerformance



IndianMonsoon

Transformation


IndianMonsoon

Transformation


Forest?





ReducedPerformance



ReducedPerformance




ENSOTriggering




ENSOTriggering




Runaway Greenhouse Dynamics?

AnthropogenicGreenhouse Gas

Emissions

GHG Emissions:

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Transportation Sources Dominate in CA

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Current Policy Initiatives Intersecting EVs and Electricity Use

CAFE and California AB1493 vehicle standards ZEV mandate (2,500 fuel cell vehs. in 2009-11) Tax credits and HOV lane access for hybrids California Global Warming Act (AB 32) AB 118 Program Funding ($1.5 B over 7 years) Stimulus funding via DOE SCAQMD:

Clean Fuels Program, Fleet Rules, Carl Moyer Incentive Program, Prop 1B, etc.

California’s RPS: Most Aggressive in the Country

Source: Black andVeatch

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GH

G E

mis

sion

s (M

MTC

O2e

q)AB32 Transportation Sector Carbon Reduction Strategies

Plug-in Hybrids +Battery Electric Vehiclescontribute to these “wedges”

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Low Carbon Fuel Standard

Carbon intensity performance standard gCO2e / MJ 10% reduction in gasoline CI: 95.61 * to 86.27 * 10% reduction in diesel CI: 94.47 * to 85.24 *

Adoption scheduled for April, 2009

Based on Well-to-wheel GHG accounting Significant role for P-HEVs and

BEVs, as well as: Biofuels, such as 2nd generation ethanol Natural gas, H2 , other renewable fuels

* CARB ISOR values, March 5, 2009 22

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Corn Ethanol with iLUC adjusted from 74.3 104.3 *

CA-RFG 95.6 CARBOB 96.9ULSD 94.5CNG from N.A. gas adjusted from 68.0 75.6 *Corn Ethanol 74.3G-H2 via LH2 transport, NA NG adjusted from 142.2 61.8 *G- H2 - onsite reform., NA NG adjusted from 98.3 42.7 *

Electricity - CA mix adjusted from 124.1 41.4 *Gaseous H2 - onsite gen. NA LFG adjusted from 76.1 33.1Biodiesel - Soybeans 26.9Sugar Cane Ethanol adjusted from 26.6 72.6Cellulosic Ethanol - Farmed Trees 5.38

WTW GHG Emissions – gCO2e/MJAdjustments reflect EER + iLUC assumptions

Source:CARBJan., 2009

Electricity Carbon Intensity

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BEVs and P-HEVs Market Outlook

Significant evolution underway for both pure electric and plug-in hybrids

Major hurdles: 1st cost; battery durability, abuse tolerance, OEM-scale

manufacturing; gravimetric and volumetric energy density; recharge time; + infrastructure deployment

“Electric Drive” era has started Home, workplace and retail echarging infrastructure

are crucial enabling steps to wide commercialization Smart Grid can help improve the economics,

efficiency and low carbon intensity of recharging

AQMD Plug-in Hybrid Fleet20 Ford Escape Conversions

Quantum Technologies Advanced Lithium Power

10 Toyota Prius Conversions Hymotion A123

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http://www.cartype.com/images/page/ford_escape_hybrid_1.jpg

GM Volt

230

Chrysler GEM

35 to 45 B Gals of

CellulosicEthanol or Renewable Methanol

Breakthroughs

30%

2 x Fuel EconomyIncrease withAggressive

Hybrid Drivetrains

40 – 50 mpg CAFE

35 to 45 B Gals of

CellulosicEthanol or Biomass Methanol

Breakthrouoghs

30%

30%

Diversion toRenewableElectricity

with Plug-inTechnology

Σ=90%

2 x Fuel EconomyIncrease withAggressive

Hybrid Drivetrains

40 – 50 mpg CAFE

35 to 45 B Gals of

CellulosicEthanol or Biomass Methanol

Breakthrouoghs

30%

30%

30%

Electric Drive Technology:Ready for Numerous Market Segments

ON-ROAD SEGMENT LD Med Duty Heavy Duty Buses Truck Stops

OFF-ROAD SEGMENT Port-related

On-dock rail (electric) Ship “cold ironing” Drayage trucks Gantry Cranes

Rail Aircraft

Ground Support Equip.

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WHY A SMART GRID ?

At its essence, a Smart Grid is the following: More consumer data for more efficient decisions on

Technologies Use characteristics

More enabling of the following: Energy storage Plug in hybrids Renewable power integration Smart buildings which manage load on-site

More appropriate to new era of Renewable Portfolio Standards (now in 30 states)

More responsive to time-of-use pricing signals Collection of many different specific elements when linked together

offer far greater system efficiency and resiliency and lower costs

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How does a Smart Grid support Electric Vehicle Use:

More decentralized / more distributed / lower transmission costs

More agile voltage support + sub-second frequency modulation

More time-responsive More accommodating of wind, solar and other renewable source

load curves and capacity factors More demand responsive / use of tiered + off-peak tariffs More supply responsive / “low NOx dispatch” More linked between customer and supplier / full net metering More systems data for real time management / “Vehicle to Grid”

use ? More systems data for emergency management Much more than just smart meters 38In other words, ideal for EV off-peak tarriffs

What does SG provide? Real time integrated communications Connected components Open architecture for 2-way (customer to supplier and on-site) Sensing and measurement devices Remote monitoring Demand side management Advanced components which integrate superconductivity, and other

technologies Rapid diagnosis and solutions Grid status updates and control Improved decision calculus, including operational, cost and emergency

response viability Responsive to dynamic market, resource and environmental considerations Integrated network to link cost, electrons and supply/demand information

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A Smart Grid Can Shift the Economics of Recharging…thereby increasing the % of miles replaced with Electricity !

P-HEV Design Alternatives

- CA Grid

Plus added upstream benefits of biofuels

Charge Depleting (Plug In) Systems →Lower GHG Emissions than simply hybrids

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Role of Renewable Generation

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“I’d put my money on the sun and solar energy. What a source of power! I hope we don’t have to wait until oil and coal run out before we tackle that. Thomas Edison, 1931

The “Systems Management” Challenge:How best to “farm” off-peak generation

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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24Hour

Perc

ent o

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ual P

eak

Gen

erat

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or D

eman

d Electric DemandTehachapi windPalm Springs Solar40% Solar, 60% Wind

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Source: http://www.co.marin.ca.us/depts/CD/main/comdev/advance/Sustainability/Energy/solar/resources/pdf/MarinPVSeminar_1104_final.pdf

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A Smart Grid Will Also Help Avoid the Need for Diesel Back-up Generation…

http://www.co.marin.ca.us/depts/CD/main/comdev/advance/Sustainability/Energy/solar/resources/pdf/MarinPVSeminar_1104_final.pdf












AQMD Smart Grid Support Policies - I

The use of smart grid technology that improves reliability, security, and efficiency of the electric grid should be encouraged and facilitated. Cost reduction opportunities should also be maximized.

Smart grid upgrades to the electrical distribution system should make it more accommodating of wind, solar, geothermal, and other renewable energy sources where possible.

Smart grid upgrades to the electrical distribution system should facilitate installation of equipment that provides more systems data that enables improved management of electrical distribution during emergencies where possible.

AQMD Smart Grid (SG) Support Policies - II

Be as technology neutral as possible, and based on open standards to maximize results from technology investments which allow for the switch out of components without replacing whole systems.

The SG network should, to the extent feasible, include planning and funding for additional transmission lines that can transport power from one region to another and connect ‘power-demand cities’ with potentially remote areas where renewable power is likely to be generated.

The SG network should allow for the transmission of power and energy across regions and across states consistent with appropriate siting criteria.

AQMD Smart Grid (SG) Support Policies - III

In view of access to consumer information by the Smart Grid, the network must be kept secure and the consumer’s privacy must be safeguarded from unauthorized access and fraud.

Incentives should be provided wherever feasible and cost-effective to consumers for in-home devices such as smart thermostats, smart appliances, lighting controls, in-home energy displays, and load control switches.

Incentives should be provided wherever feasible and cost-effective to businesses for automating commercial offices and/or buildings, including smart thermostats, lighting controls, smart thermostats, energy displays, and load control switches.

AQMD Smart Grid Support Policies - IV

Incentives should be provided to consumers for investment in intelligent electrical network equipment for enhancing monitoring, control and distribution where feasible and cost-effective.

Incentives should be provided to utility companies for installation of grid monitoring and control devices such as transformer monitors and voltage sensors where feasible and cost-effective.

Incentives should be provided to cities that incorporate electric vehicle integration to connection stations where feasible and cost-effective.

Any grant or incentive programs should give priority to environmental justice areas and areas with disproportionate air quality impacts.

Conclusions The Electric Drive era has already started Smart Grid deployment offers significant

benefits to help deploy PHEVs and BEVs Linking renewable generation with electric

vehicles is an essential element of de-carbonizing transportation

SG deployment should be designed to be as agile and robust as possible to support advances in plug-in technology

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“The Smart Grid will like you…”

THANK YOU FOR THIS OPPORTUNITY

!