CountryEUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA (ECA) RISK PROFILES

99.9

GDP $160 billion*

Population 20 million*

AFFECTED BY 100-YEAR FLOOD

AFFECTED BY 250-YEAR EARTHQUAKE

CAPITAL LOSS FROM 250-YEAR EARTHQUAKE

$10 billion (6%)

2 million (10%)

$107 billion (67%)

12 million (60%)

$18 billion (11%)

4747 (<1%)

*2010 estimates

A R M E N I AA Z E R B A I J A N

C H I N A

G E O R G I A

I R A Q

K Y R G Y Z R E P U B L I C

M O N G O L I A

R U S S I A N F E D E R A T I O N

T A J I K I S T A NT U R K E Y T U R K M E N I S T A N

U Z B E K I S T A N

Akmolinskaya

Aktyubinskaya

Almatinskaya

Atyrauskaya

Jambylslkaya

Karagandinskaya

Kustanayskaya

Kyzylordinskaya

Mangistauskaya

Pavlodarskaya

Severo-kazachstanskaya

Vostochno-kazachstanskaya

Yujno-kazachstanskaya

Zapadno-kazachstanskaya

Almaty City area

Astana

C A S P I A NS E A

13 152.2 4.5 9.823

GDP (billions of $)

FLOOD

EARTHQUAKE

105

1

Negligible

Annual Average of Affected GDP (%)

There is a high correlation(r=0.95) between the

population and GDP of a province.

TOP AFFECTED PROVINCES

FLOOD EARTHQUAKEANNUAL AVERAGE OF AFFECTED GDP (%)

ANNUAL AVERAGE OF AFFECTED GDP (%)

AtyrauskayaKyzylordinskayaZapadno-kazachstanskayaJambylslkayaYujno-kazachstanskayaVostochno-kazachstanskayaSevero-kazachstanskayaAkmolinskayaAktyubinskayaKustanayskaya

11532221111

Almaty City areaAlmatinskayaJambylslkayaYujno-kazachstanskayaVostochno-kazachstanskayaMangistauskayaPavlodarskayaKyzylordinskayaSevero-kazachstanskayaAkmolinskaya

4321100000

Kazakhstan’s population and economy are exposed to earth-quakes and floods, with floods

posing the greater risk. The model results for present-day risk presented in this risk profile are based on pop-ulation and gross domestic product (GDP) estimates for 2015. The esti-mated damage caused by historical events is inflated to 2015 dollars.

Just over half of Kazakhstan’s popula-tion lives in urban environments. The country’s GDP was approximately US$120 billion in 2015, with close to 70 percent derived from services, most of the remainder generated by

industry, and agriculture making a small contribution. Kazakhstan’s per capita GDP was $6,770.

This map displays GDP by province in Kazakhstan, with greater color satu-ration indicating greater GDP within a province. The blue circles indicate the risk of experiencing floods and the orange circles the risk of earth-quakes in terms of normalized annual average of affected GDP. The largest circles represent the greatest normal-ized risk. The risk is estimated using flood and earthquake risk models.

The table displays the provinces at greatest normalized risk for each

peril. In both relative and absolute terms, the province at greatest risk of floods is Atyrauskaya, and the one at greatest risk of earthquakes is the Almaty City area.

KazakhstanEUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA (ECA) RISK PROFILES

GDP $120 billion*

Population 17.7 million*

AFFECTED BY 100-YEAR FLOOD

AFFECTED BY 250-YEAR EARTHQUAKE

CAPITAL LOSS FROM 250-YEAR EARTHQUAKE

$10 billion (11%)

1 million (8%)

$30 billion (22%)

3 million (17%)

$20 billion (14%)

20,000 (<1%)

*2015 estimates

53

EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA (ECA) RISK PROFILESFLOODCountry

C H I N A

I R A Q

K Y R G Y Z R E P U B L I C

M O N G O L I A

R U S S I A N F E D E R A T I O N

T A J I K I S T A NT U R K M E N I S T A N

U Z B E K I S T A N

I S L A M I C R E P U B L I C O F I R A N

Akmolinskaya

Aktyubinskaya

Almatinskaya

Atyrauskaya

Jambylslkaya

Karagandinskaya

Kustanayskaya

Kyzylordinskaya

Mangistauskaya

Pavlodarskaya

Severo-kazachstanskaya

Vostochno-kazachstanskaya

Yujno-kazachstanskaya

Zapadno-kazachstanskaya

Almaty City area

Astana

C A S P I A NS E A

The most deadly flood since Kazakhstan gained its inde-pendence in 1991 occurred

in 2010. It caused over 40 fatalities and close to $40 million in damage. The most damaging flood took place in 2008, causing one death and over $100 million in damage. A 1993 flood caused approximately 10 fatalities and close to $60 million in damage. Flooding in 2011 caused only two fatalities and damage close to $70 million.

This map depicts the impact of flood-ing on provinces’ GDPs, represented as percentages of their annual aver-age GDPs affected, with greater color saturation indicating higher percent-ages. The bar graphs represent GDP affected by floods with return periods of 10 years (white) and 100 years (black). The horizontal line across the bars also shows the annual average of GDP affected by floods.

When a flood has a 10-year return period, it means the probability of occurrence of a flood of that magni-tude or greater is 10 percent per year. A 100-year flood has a probability of occurrence of 1 percent per year. This means that over a long period of time, a flood of that magnitude will, on average, occur once every 100 years. It does not mean a 100-year flood will occur exactly once every 100 years. In fact, it is possible for a flood of any return period to occur

more than once in the same year, or to appear in consecutive years, or not to happen at all over a long period of time.

If the 10- and 100-year bars are the same height, then the impact of a 10-year event is as large as that of a 100-year event, and the annual average of affected GDP is dominated by events that happen relatively frequently. If the impact of a 100-year event is much greater than that of a 10-year event, then less frequent events make a larger contribution to the annual average of affected GDP. Thus, even if a province’s annual affected GDP seems small, less frequent and more intense events can still have large impacts.

The annual average population affect-ed by flooding in Kazakhstan is about 300,000 and the annual average affected GDP about $3 billion. For most provinces, the 10- and 100-year impacts do not differ much, so relatively frequent floods have large impacts on these averages. For the few in which the 100-year impacts are much greater than the 10-year impacts, less frequent events make a significant contribution to the annual averages of affected GDP.

EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA (ECA) RISK PROFILESFLOODKazakhstan

0 1 2 4 8

Annual Average of Affected GDP (%)

6

50

25

10

Affected GDP (%) for

10 and 100-year return periods

Annual average

10-year 100-year

One block = 5%

54

EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA (ECA) RISK PROFILESEARTHQUAKECountry

C H I N A

I R A Q

K Y R G Y Z R E P U B L I C

M O N G O L I A

R U S S I A N F E D E R A T I O N

T A J I K I S T A NT U R K M E N I S T A N

U Z B E K I S T A N

I S L A M I C R E P U B L I C O F I R A N

Akmolinskaya

Aktyubinskaya

Almatinskaya

Atyrauskaya

Jambylslkaya

Karagandinskaya

Kustanayskaya

Kyzylordinskaya

Mangistauskaya

Pavlodarskaya

Severo-kazachstanskaya

Vostochno-kazachstanskaya

Yujno-kazachstanskaya

Zapadno-kazachstanskaya

Almaty City area

Astana

C A S P I A NS E A

C H I N A

I R A Q

K Y R G Y Z R E P U B L I C

M O N G O L I A

R U S S I A N F E D E R A T I O N

T A J I K I S T A NT U R K M E N I S T A N

U Z B E K I S T A N

I S L A M I C R E P U B L I C O F I R A N

Akmolinskaya

Aktyubinskaya

Almatinskaya

Atyrauskaya

Jambylslkaya

Karagandinskaya

Kustanayskaya

Kyzylordinskaya

Mangistauskaya

Pavlodarskaya

Severo-kazachstanskaya

Vostochno-kazachstanskaya

Yujno-kazachstanskaya

Zapadno-kazachstanskaya

Almaty City area

Astana

C A S P I A NS E A

Kazakhstan’s worst earthquake since 1900 took place in 1911 in Kemin, with a magnitude of

7.7. The earthquake caused over 450 fatalities and more than $20 million in damage. Other earthquakes oc-curred in Aksu in 1716 and Alma-Ata in 1889. More recently, in 2003, an earthquake caused three deaths and affected close to 40,000 people.

This map depicts the impact of earthquakes on provinces’ GDPs, represented as percentages of their annual average GDPs affected, with greater color saturation indicating higher percentages. The bar graphs represent GDP affected by earth-quakes with return periods of 10 years (white) and 100 years (black). The horizontal line across the bars also shows the annual average of GDP affected by earthquakes.

When an earthquake has a 10-year return period, it means the probabil-ity of occurrence of an earthquake of that magnitude or greater is 10 per-cent per year. A 100-year earthquake has a probability of occurrence of 1 percent per year. This means that over a long period of time, an earth-quake of that magnitude will, on average, occur once every 100 years. It does not mean a 100-year earth-quake will occur exactly once every 100 years. In fact, it is possible for an earthquake of any return period to occur more than once in the same

year, or to appear in consecutive years, or not to happen at all over a long period of time.

If the 10- and 100-year bars are the same height, then the impact of a 10-year event is as large as that of a 100-year event, and the annual average of affected GDP is dominated by events that happen relatively frequently. If the impact of a 100-year event is much greater than that of a 10-year event, then less frequent events make larger contributions to the annual average of affected GDP. Thus, even if a province’s annual affected GDP seems small, less frequent and more intense events can still have large impacts.

The annual average population affected by earthquakes in Ka-zakhstan is about 200,000 and the annual average affected GDP about $1 billion. The annual averages of fatalities and capital losses caused by earthquakes are about 500 and about $400 million, respectively. The fatalities and capital losses caused by more intense, less frequent events can be substantially larger than the annual averages. For example, an earthquake with a 0.4 percent annual probability of occurrence (a 250-year return period event) could cause nearly 20,000 fatalities and $20 billion in capital loss (about 10 percent of GDP).

EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA (ECA) RISK PROFILESEARTHQUAKEKazakhstan

0 1 2 4 8

Annual Average of Affected GDP (%)

6

100

50

20

Affected GDP (%) for

10 and 100-year return periods

Annual average

10-year 100-year

One block = 10%

55

EARTHQUAKEEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITY CURVE, 2010 AND 2080

FLOODEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITY CURVE, 2010 AND 2080

Aff

ecte

d G

DP

(b

illi

on

s o

f $

)

EARTHQUAKEANNUAL AVERAGE FATALITIES

EARTHQUAKEANNUAL AVERAGE CAPITAL LOSS ($)

The rose diagrams show the provinces with the potential for greatest annual average capital losses and highest

annual average numbers of fatalities, as determined using an earthquake risk model. The potential for greatest capital loss occurs in the Almaty City area, which is not surprising, given the economic importance of the province.

EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA (ECA) RISK PROFILESKazakhstan

EARTHQUAKEEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITY CURVE, 2015 AND 2080

FLOODEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITY CURVE, 2015 AND 2080

Return period (years)

Probability (%)

10

10

250

0.4

50

2

100

1

20

40

60

140

80

100

120

2080

2015

Return period (years)

Probability (%)

10

10

250

0.4

50

2

100

1

2080

2015

100

50

150

200

300

250

The exceedance probability curves display the GDP affected by, respectively, floods and earthquakes for

varying probabilities of occurrence. Values for two different time periods are shown. A solid line depicts the affected GDP for 2015 conditions. A diagonally striped band depicts the range of affected GDP based on a selection of climate and socioeconomic scenarios for 2080. For example, if Kazakhstan had experienced a 100-year return period flood event in 2015, the affected GDP would have been an esti-mated $10 billion. In 2080, however, the affected GDP from the same type of event would range from about $60 billion to about $100 billion. If Kazakhstan had experienced a 250-year earthquake event in 2015, the affected GDP would have been about $20 billion. In 2080, the affected GDP from the same type of event would range from about $100 billion to $300 billion, due to population growth, urbanization, and the increase in exposed assets.

All historical data on floods and earthquakes are from D. Guha-Sapir, R. Below, and Ph. Hoyois, EM-DAT: International Disaster Database (Université Catholique de Louvain, Brussels, Belgium), www.emdat.be; the National Geophysical Data Center/World Data Service (NGDC/WDS), Significant Earthquake Data-base (National Geophysical Data Center, NOAA), doi:10.7289/V5TD9V7K; and J. Daniell and A. Schaefer, “Eastern Europe and Central Asia Region Earthquake Risk Assessment Country and Province Profiling,” final report to GFDRR, 2014. Damage estimates for all historical events have been inflated to 2013 US$. More information on the data and context can be found in the full publication, Europe and Central Asia Country Risk Profiles for Floods and Earthquakes, at www.gfdrr.org/publications, or by contacting Joaquin Toro (jtoro@worldbank.org) or Dr. Alanna Simpson (asimpson1@worldbank.org). Please see the full publication for the complete disclaimer and limitations on methodology. Although GFDRR makes reasonable efforts to ensure all the information presented in this document is correct, its accuracy and integrity cannot be guaranteed.

Aff

ecte

d G

DP

(b

illi

on

s o

f $

)

EARTHQUAKEANNUAL AVERAGE FATALITIES

EARTHQUAKEANNUAL AVERAGE CAPITAL LOSS ($)

Kyzylordinskaya 0.4

Pavlodarskaya 3

Man

gist

ausk

aya

5

Vostochno-

kazachstanskaya 10

Jambylslkaya 10

Yujno-kazachstanskaya10

Almatin

skaya 70

Alm

aty

City

are

a 30

0

Akmolinskaya 0.4

Karagandinskaya 0.4

Karagandinskaya 0

Pavlodarskaya 2

Man

gist

ausk

aya

2

Vostochno

-kazachstanskaya 9

Yujno-kazachstanskaya

10

Jambylslkaya 30

Almaty City

area

200

Alm

atin

skay

a 20

0Akmolinskaya 0Severo-

kazachstanskaya 0

56