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Europahuset Inför CBD 2010
4e oktober 2010
Prof. Johan RockströmStockholm Resilience Centre
Stockholm Environment Institute
Biologisk mångfald och klimatförändring ur ett vetenskapligt perspektiv
Human growth20/80 dilemma
Ecosystems60 % loss dilemma
Climate550/450/350 dilemma
Surprise99/1 dilemma
”The Quadruple Squeeze”
Accelerated biodiversity loss during the Anthropocene
– The 6th Major extinction event in the History of Planet Earth
Growing evidence of importance of biodiversity - to sustaining ecosystem functioning and services- to prevent ecosystems from tipping into undesired states- to prevent other Earth system processes from flipping
THE GLOBAL DRAMA OF BIODIVERSITY LOSS
Atmospheric CO2 concentration
IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
Etheridge et al. Geophys Res 101: 4115-4128
Northern hemisphere average surface temperature
IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
Mann et al Geophys Res Lett 26(6): 759-762
Atmospheric N2O concentration
IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
Machida et al Geophys Res Lett 22:2921-2925
Atmospheric CH4 concentration
IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
Blunier et al J Geophy Res 20: 2219-2222
Ozone depletion
IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
JD Shanklin British Antarctic Survey
Natural climactic disasters
IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
Ocean ecosystems
IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
FAOSTAT 2002 Statistical database
Shrimp farm production
IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
WRI 2003, a guide to world resources
Coastal zone nitrogen flux
IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
Mackenzie et al 2002.
Tropical rainforest and woodland loss
IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
Richards, the Earth as transformed by human action, Cambridge University Press
Domesticated land
IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
Klein Goldewijk and Batties
Species extinctions
IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
Wilson, the Diversity of Life.
The Planetary Response to the drivers of the Anthropocene
From: Steffen et al. 2004
”the great acceleration of the human entreprise”,Professor Will Steffen
1900 1950 2000
CO2, N2O, CH4 concentrations
Overfishing
Land degradation
Loss Biodiversity
…..
2010
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Human Development in an era of rapid global
change
Mitigation and Adaptation to Global environmental change
Ecological Resilience and the capacity to persist, adapt and transform in the face of shocks
Ecological functions and Ecosystem services
Biological Diversity
Insights into the funda-mentals of human well-being
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Biodiversity and ecosystem functions
functional diversity (functional complementarity)species that perform different ecosystem functions (nitrogen fixation, pollination, etc.)
response diversitySpecies (gene complexes) that perform the same function in different ways with different response capacities to environmental changes (redundancy, biological insurance)
Sources of resilienceWhat is required for coral reefs to regenerate
after disturbance?
Biodiversity Biodiversity provides resilienceprovides resilience
Bellwood, Hughes, Folke & Nystrom, Nature 2004
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• overfishing, coastal eutrophication
• phosphorous accum- ulation in soil and mud
• fire prevention
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state shift
• disease, hurricane
• flooding, warming, overexploitation of predators
• good rains, continu- ous heavy grazing
coral dominance
clear water
grassland
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algal dominance
turbid water
shrub-bushland
Valuable Ecosystem Services Loss of ecosystem services(Desirable) (Undesirable)
Disturbance regimes and multiple social-ecological feedbacksRealising the risks of biodiversity loss
-Borneo rainforest-palmoil-fire dynamics- Water resources, land-water degradation, climate change and world food prices- Wealth, lifestyles, meat consumption, livestock dynamics
Gulf of Maine – a disaster in the making? co-management success in disguise
23-04-21 Johan Rockström and Carl Folke, Stockholm Resilience Centre
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
0102030405060708090
2010200019901980197019601950Year
Div
ersi
ty (
H''
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% L
obst
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Near-future Lobster collapse
Declining ecological and Economic Diversity
Former Mixed fishery
Current Lobster monoculture
Photo: CC Jason Auch / Azote
Photo: S Zeff / Azote
Regime shifts in all systems
• Sub-system specific indices of ecosystem development (PC1 from PCA)
• Regimes identified using STARS on PC1s (red lines)
• Almost synchronous regime shifts in all sub-systems
Bothnian Bay (BB)
BB
BS
GF
GR
CBS
TS
Bothnian Bay (BS)
Gulf of Finland (GF)
Gulf of Riga (GR)
Central Baltic (CBS)
The Sound (TS)
Torsten Bleckner et al., 2009
23-04-21 Johan Rockström and Carl Folke, Stockholm Resilience Centre
Australia: The Never- Ending Drought
Photo: The Canberra Times
Drought is into its 5th year across much of eastern Australia; this appears to be part of a 30-year drying trend in the region.
87% of New South Wales is currently drought-declared.
Water supplies of Sydney and Canberra are at their lowest levels in history; Sydney has less than two years remaining.
Drought, Fires and FoodA social transformation in the making?
In January 2003, violent wildfires devastatedCanberra, Australia’s capital city
The Resilience of the Earth System
Our precarious predicament
”We have our foot on the accelerator driving towards the Abyss...”
Ban Ki-moon Secretary General of the UNSept 2009
Planetary Boundaries: Exploring the safe operating space for humanity in the Anthropocene (Nature, 461 : 472 – 475, Sept 24 - 2009)
Climate Change< 350 ppm CO2 < 1W m2
(350 – 500 ppm CO2 ; 1-1.5 W m2)
Ocean acidificationAragonite saturation
ratio > 80 % above pre-industrial levels
(> 80% - > 70 %)
Ozone depletion< 5 % of Pre-Industrial 290 DU
(5 - 10%)
Global Freshwater Use<4000 km3/yr
(4000 – 6000 km3/yr)
Rate of Biodiversity Loss
< 10 E/MSY(< 10 - < 1000 E/MSY)
Biogeochemical loading: Global N & P Cycles Limit industrial
fixation of N2 to 35 Tg N yr-1(25 % of natural fixation)
(25%-35%)P < 10× natural
weathering inflow to Oceans
(10× – 100×)
Atmospheric Aerosol Loading To be determined
Land System Change
≤15 % of land under crops
(15-20%)
Chemical Pollution Plastics, Endocrine Desruptors, Nuclear Waste Emitted globally
To be determined
Planetary Boundaries
…
Rockström et al. 2009 Nature, 461 (24): 472-475
Global fresh-water use
The real climate challenge
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1970 1980 1990 2000 2004
Gt C
/yr
CO2 from fossil fuels and other sourcesCO2 from land use changeCH4 from agriculture, waste and energyN2O from agriculture and othersF gases
Adapted from Canadell et al., 2007
Terrestrial and Marine Carbon
sinks
0123456789
10
Gt
Carb
on
/yr
ocean
land
Fossil CO2
Land CO2
Agric/waste/energy CH4
Agric/others N2O
CFCs/Tropospheric O3
Rate of Biodiversity LossAvoid large scale irreversible loss of functional diversity and ecological resilience
• The current and projected rate of biodiversity loss constitutes the sixth major extinction event in the history of life on Earth – the first to be driven by human activities on the planet
• Biodiversity plays a key role for functional diversity and thereby ecosystem resilience
• Humans have increased the rate of species extinction by 100-1,000 times the background rates that were typical over Earth’s history
• Average global extinction rate projected to increase another 10-fold, to 1,000-10,000 E/MSY during the current century
Biodiversity LossSetting the boundary:
• Suggesting a safe planetary boundary (here placed at 10 E/MSY)
• within an order of magnitude of the natural background rate
Biodiversity provides resilience for humanity in
an era of rapid global change
The institutional capacities to manage the earth’s ecosystems are evolving more slowly than man’s overuse of the same systems.
