EU Market Situation for Poultry Common - UPA · EU market situation for Poultry 19 February 2015 Saudi Arabia 118 019 9.3% 151 520 10.7% 149 310 10.4% 154 775 10.9% 123 559 8.2% -

EU Market Situation for

PoultryPoultry

Committee for the Common

Organisation of the Agricultural Markets

19 February 2015

3.0

3.5

€€€€uro Exchange rate uro Exchange rate uro Exchange rate uro Exchange rate 1 Euro = .....…US$ / BRZ Real/1 Euro = .....…US$ / BRZ Real/1 Euro = .....…US$ / BRZ Real/1 Euro = .....…US$ / BRZ Real/

BRZ Real

EU market situation for Poultry 19 February 2015

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

I 2008 I 2009 I 2010 I 2011 I 2012 I 2013 I 2014 I 2015 I

source:http://europa.eu.int/comm/budget/inforeuro/fr/index.htm

USA $

1.400

1.500

1.600

Futures for Soybeans in US$ct/ Bushel (nearby = 2013 & 2014)

01 Nearby

2015 Mar

2015 May

2015 Jul

Delivery:


90 0

1.000

1.10 0

1.200

1.300

Jan 2014| Feb | Mch | Apr | May | Jun | July | Aug. | Sept. | Oct . | Nov . | Dec. |Jan 2015| Feb | Mch | Apr | May | Jun |

195

Futures for Feed wheat EU (Euronext) (Nearby = 2014 & 2015)

01 Nearby

2015 Mar

2015 May

2015 Jul

Delivery:


105

135

165

|Jan 2014| Feb | Mrch | Apr | May | June | July | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |Jan 2014| Feb | Mrch | Apr | May | June |

€uro

/ Ton

n

200

220

Futures for Maize EU (Euronext ) (Nearby = 2014 - 2015)

Nearby

2015 Jan

2015 Jun

Delivery:


120

140

160

180

| 2014 | Feb | Mrt | Apr | May | Jun | July | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | 2014 | Feb | Mrt | Apr | May | Jun |

€/T

on

n

2015 Jun

2015 Aug

450

Price of Basic Ingredients 2012 - 2015

Soft wheat (EU)


50

150

250

350

Jan Apri l Jui l Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct

Euro

/ to

nne

Soft wheat (EU)

Barley (EU)

Maïs (EU)

Soja (CAF)

Hulls (EU)

300

350

400

Eu

ro/ 1

00

kg

(B

roile

r)

Price development of Compound feed for Broilers, a Broiler Cereal-Feedmix and Broiler price


0

50

100

150

200

250

| 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015

Eu

ro/ T

(fe

ed

)

Eu

ro/ 1

00

kg

(B

roile

r)

margin broiler/ comp feed (2.7 (2011) - 2.4 (2014))Cereal-mixCompound feedBroilerAvg. Margin 2009 - 2013 (93,99 €/100kg)

NB. Comp. Feed 2014 =Forecast as from December.Cereal mix and Poultry = Forecast as from February 2015.

115

125

uro

/ 100kg

100KG Broiler minus feedcost for Broilersfeedconversionrate = 2,7 (2011) - 2,4 (2014)


75

85

95

105

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53

Rem

ain

der

€uro

/ 100kg

Marge Average10 - 14

Marge Broiler 2012 Marge Broiler 2013 Marge Broiler 2014 Marge Broiler 2015

200

uro/

100

kg

Evolution of the weekly EU average price for Broile r


185,39€/100 kg

170

180

190

1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52

€uro

/ 100

kg

Moy. 10-14 2012 2013 2014 2015

185,39

165,24

150,00

175,00

200,00

Broiler prices in EU, USA and Brazilin €uro/ 100kg


103,08

75,00

100,00

125,00

150,00

| 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |

EU broiler

US broiler €uro

BR Broil €uro/ (Ave world)

EU = weighted avg of MS prices Broiler 65%

US = weekly USDA prices Fresh chicken grade A ,Chicago

BR = avg of prices in main producing states (Aveworld.com.br)

600

750

900

600 000

750 000

Realised slaughter Fo

reca

st in

tonn

es

Forecast and Production of Broilers.In Tonn


0

150

300

450

0

150 000

300 000

450 000

| 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015

Realised slaughter in 1000 TFo

reca

st in

tonn

es

Forecast Production Broiler Broiler slaughter

Jan. Feb. March April May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec.

2013 580 736 647 722 686 792 629 810 696 568 727 383 705 763 683 621 718 661 695 745 679 356 706 715

2014 573 133 675 908 692 293 650 324 706 511 733 263 720 550 710 849 733 848 680 168 688 525 531 597

2015 529 871 436 096

400 000

500 000

600 000

1 00

0 p

Placings of Broiler chicks (1 000 pieces)compared to the baseline trend

(baseline= monthly avg 2010 - 2013)


0

100 000

200 000

300 000

| 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015

1 00

0 p

Placings Broiler (baseline= monthly avg 2010 - 2013) - Broiler chicks

Jan. Feb. March April May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec.

2013 513 645 477 489 532 079 549 359 531 593 524 160 535 570 535 521 514 895 529 349 443 478 511 348

2014 518 996 490 967 534 351 551 180 545 726 536 031 552 421 513 339 525 981 519 933 404 549 371 829

2015

TRADETRADE


Imports of Poultry meat from selected origins

Compared

tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % to Jan-Dec 13

Brazil 599 759 73.1% 615 837 71.9% 583 450 67.3% 513 537 63.2% 496 620 59.6% - 3%

Thailand 149 876 18.3% 155 790 18.2% 197 964 22.8% 228 243 28.1% 249 374 29.9% + 10%

Chile 34 403 4.2% 44 434 5.2% 42 192 4.9% 30 516 3.8% 25 801 3.1% - 15%

2010 2011 2012 Jan-Dec 142013


Chile 34 403 4.2% 44 434 5.2% 42 192 4.9% 30 516 3.8% 25 801 3.1% - 15%

Ukraine 2 0.0% 31 0.0% 276 0.0% 19 916 2.4% + 7111%

China 9 863 1.2% 13 875 1.6% 15 697 1.8% 18 184 2.2% 19 685 2.4% + 8%

Argentina 15 795 1.9% 15 700 1.8% 13 766 1.6% 10 783 1.3% 10 974 1.3% + 2%

Switzerland 673 0.1% 1 253 0.1% 3 817 0.4% 3 814 0.5% 4 195 0.5% + 10%

Israel 7 219 0.9% 7 144 0.8% 6 076 0.7% 6 306 0.8% 2 413 0.3% - 62%

Others 3 410 0.4% 3 037 0.4% 4 247 0.5% 1 385 0.2% 3 937 0.5% #N/A

EXTRA EU 28 820 999 857 100 867 209 813 044 832 915

% change + 4% + 1% - 6% + 2.4%

EU Poultry meat Imports

866 130813 180 832 915

800 000

900 000

1 000 000

IMPORTS of Poultry Meat into EU (Tonnes cwe)

2 234 7652 097 413 2 154 090

2 000 000

2 500 000

IMPORTS of Poultry Meat into EU (1000 EUR)


583 357514 339 496 620

196 990227 589 249 374

0

100 000

200 000

300 000

400 000

500 000

600 000

700 000

Jan-Dec 12 Jan-Dec 13 Jan-Dec 14

To

nn

es c

w

Brazil Thailand Israel Chile China Other origins

1 217 3421 072 189 1 040 373

767 937806 810 870 581

0

500 000

1 000 000

1 500 000


10

00

EU

R

Brazil Thailand Israel Chile China Other origins

80 000

100 000

120 000

in Tonnes

cwe

in Tonnes

cwe

in Tonnes

cwe

in Tonnes

cwe

Imports of selected Poultry products


0

20 000

40 000

60 000

|Jan06

2006 |Jan07

2007 |Jan08

2008 |Jan09

2009 |Jan10

2010 |Jan11

2011 |Jan12

2012 |Jan13

2013 |Jan14

2014

in Tonnes

cwe

in Tonnes

cwe

in Tonnes

cwe

in Tonnes

cwe

FROZEN PREPARED SALTED OTHERS

Chin

a +

H. K

ong

Chin

a +

H. K

ong

Japa

n (u

p to

Nov

)

Japa

n (u

p to

Nov

)

Mex

ico

(up

to O

ct)

Mex

ico

(up

to O

ct)

900

1 000

1 100

1 200

1 300

Qty

in 1

000

Tonn

es (

pw)

Main Importers of POULTRY Products (up to December)

Source : GTA & Eurostat (excl.: live animals)


Chin

a +

H. K

ong

Chin

a +

H. K

ong

EU EU

Japa

n (u

p to

Nov

)

Japa

n (u

p to

Nov

)

Mex

ico

(up

to O

ct)

Mex

ico

(up

to O

ct)

Sout

h Af

rica

(up

to N

ov)

Sout

h Af

rica

(up

to N

ov)

Cana

da (u

p to

Nov

)

Cana

da (u

p to

Nov

)

Russ

ia (u

p to

Nov

)

Russ

ia (u

p to

Nov

)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

2013 (up to December) 2014 (up to December)

Qty

in 1

000

Tonn

es (

pw)

Exports of Poultry Meat to Selected Destinations

Compared

tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % to Jan-Dec 13

South Africa 22 007 1.7% 94 084 6.7% 131 832 9.2% 158 481 11.1% 203 599 13.5% + 28%

Benin 115 066 9.1% 126 215 8.9% 139 820 9.8% 139 415 9.8% 163 801 10.9% + 18%

Hong Kong 151 729 12.0% 189 154 13.4% 126 074 8.8% 117 107 8.2% 136 118 9.0% + 16%

2010 2011 2012 Jan-Dec 142013


Saudi Arabia 118 019 9.3% 151 520 10.7% 149 310 10.4% 154 775 10.9% 123 559 8.2% - 20%

Ukraine 86 009 6.8% 81 690 5.8% 103 429 7.2% 76 015 5.3% 80 570 5.4% + 6%

Russia 245 478 19.4% 115 138 8.1% 113 133 7.9% 95 183 6.7% 68 422 4.5% - 28%

Philippines 15 087 1.2% 30 341 2.1% 30 765 2.2% 35 674 2.5% 57 664 3.8% + 62%

Ghana 41 066 3.2% 68 979 4.9% 69 157 4.8% 75 125 5.3% 56 857 3.8% - 24%

Congo (Dem. Rep.) 27 749 2.2% 29 973 2.1% 34 232 2.4% 28 600 2.0% 33 723 2.2% + 18%

For.JRep.Mac 14 323 1.1% 24 792 1.8% 32 748 2.3% 36 531 2.6% 33 577 2.2% - 8%

Switzerland 29 804 2.4% 29 411 2.1% 29 275 2.0% 30 709 2.2% 31 620 2.1% + 3%

Other Destinations 398 518 31.5% 472 361 33.4% 470 784 32.9% 478 856 33.6% 515 121 34.2%

Extra-EU 28 1 264 856 1 413 657 1 430 558 1 426 472 1 504 631

% change + 12% + 1% - 0% + 5.5%

EU Poultry meat Export

2 064 396 2 083 586 2 055 309

2 000 000

2 500 000

EU EXPORTS of Poultry Meat (1000 EUR)

809 133

1 429 976 1 425 7561 504 631

1 200 000

1 400 000

1 600 000

EU EXPORTS of Poultry Meat (Tonnes cwe)


148 572 136 917 163 181

231 559 247 078 190 798

190 099 185 824 211 661

1 169 717 1 214 696 1 206 509

0

500 000

1 000 000

1 500 000


10

00

EU

R

Hong Kong South Africa Saudi Arabia Benin Russia Other destinations *

* countries trading less than 150 000 ('000 EUR)

126 055 117 123 136 118

203 599154 768

123 559139 817 139 246 163 801113 128 95 169

68 422

769 837 760 940809 133

0

200 000

400 000

600 000

800 000

1 000 000

1 200 000


To

nn

es c

w

Hong Kong South Africa Saudi Arabia Benin Russia Other destinations *

* countries trading less than 81 000 Tons

120 000

140 000

160 000

180 000

IIIInnnn

Exports of selected Poultry products


0

20 000

40 000

60 000

80 000

100 000

|Jan06

2006 |Jan07

2007 |Jan08

2008 |Jan09

2009 |Jan10

2010 |Jan11

2011 |Jan12

2012 |Jan13

2013 |Jan14

2014

ttttoooonnnnssss

CCCCWWWWEEEE

FROZEN PREPARED FRESH OTHERS

20,0%

25,0%

Change in total EU 28 poultrymeat exports in

carcasse weight in 2014 6 MS represent

79% of the total EU

28 Poultrymeat

exports


-15,0%

-10,0%

-5,0%

0,0%

5,0%

10,0%

15,0%

NL FR PL BE DE UK other EU

13/12

14/13

0,0%

10,0%

Change in Exports 2012 - 2014 : France4 destinations cover 59% of total exports in 2014

30,0%

40,0%

50,0%

Change in Exports 2012 - 2014 : Netherlands4 destinations cover 52% of total exports in 2014


-40,0%

-30,0%

-20,0%

-10,0%

0,0%

France

Total

Saudi

Arabia

Benin Yemen Russia

13/12

14/13

-30,0%

-20,0%

-10,0%

0,0%

10,0%

20,0%

30,0%

Netherlands

Total

South

Africa

Philippines Benin Ghana

13/12

14/13

10,0%

Change in Exports 2012 - 2014 : Germany4 destinations cover 50% of total exports in 2014

100,0%

125,0%

Change in Exports 2012 - 2014 : Poland4 destinations cover 61% of total exports in 2014


-20,0%

-10,0%

0,0%

Germany

Total

Ukraine South

Africa

Benin For.JRep.

Macedonia

13/12

14/13

-25,0%

0,0%

25,0%

50,0%

75,0%

100,0%

Poland

Total

Ukraine Benin Hong Kong Congo

13/12

14/13

150,0%

Change in Exports 2012 - 2014 : Belgium4 destinations cover 43% of total exports in 2014

50,0%

75,0%

100,0%

Change in Exports 2012 - 2014 : United Kingdom4 destinations cover 82% of total exports in 2014


-50,0%

0,0%

50,0%

100,0%

Belgium

Total

Ghana Philippines Congo

(Dem. Rep.)

South

Africa

13/12

14/13

-75,0%

-50,0%

-25,0%

0,0%

25,0%

50,0%

United

Kingdom

Total

South

Africa

Hong Kong Benin Ukraine

13/12

14/13

EU Poultry meat Trade Balance

1 017

1 101 1 116

1 153

1 114

1 275

1 0631 046

997 997 9821 016

1 265

1 4141 431 1 426

1 505

1 000

1 200

1 400

1 600

IMPORTS EXPORTS


302277 292

310

371

676

794

480

614 616

858891

876

821857 867

813833

867

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Jan-Dec14

in 1000 Tonnes cwe

Bra

zil

Bra

zil

Uni

ted

Stat

es (u

p to

Nov

)

Uni

ted

Stat

es (u

p to

Nov

)

2 500

3 000

3 500

Main Exporters of POULTRY Products (up to December)

Source : GTA & Eurostat (excl. live animals)


Uni

ted

Stat

es (u

p to

Nov

)

Uni

ted

Stat

es (u

p to

Nov

)

EU EU

Chin

a +

H. K

ong

(up

to N

ov)

Chin

a +

H. K

ong

(up

to N

ov)

Thai

land

(up

to N

ov)

Thai

land

(up

to N

ov)

Turk

ey (u

p to

Oct

)

Turk

ey (u

p to

Oct

)

Arg

enti

na (u

p to

Nov

)

Arg

enti

na (u

p to

Nov

)

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

2013 (up to December) 2014 (up to December)

Qty

in 1

000

Tonn

es (

pw)

Parameters for the calculation of the estimated production of broilers

BE BG CZ DK DE EE GR ES FR HR IE IT CY LV LT LU HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SI SK F I SE UKParameter 2013

Parameters for the calculation of the estimated production of broilers


ParameterNational Average Live

weight (kg) at

Slaughter

2.10 1.90 2.10 2.11 2.39 2.40 2.66 1.99 2.04 2.60 2.64 2.10 2.44 2.33 2.55 1.70 1.83 2.44 1.85 2.20 2.20 2.12 2.34 1.91 2.23

National Average

Carcass yield (%)

73.0% 74.0% 75.0% 70.0% 71.0% 75.0% 70.2% 69.4% 71.7% 70.1% 77.0% 74.4% 75.1% 70.1% 74.0% 66.0% 75.0% 69.9% 72.4% 70.5% 72.5% 72.5% 75.0% 69.0%

National Average

Mortality (%)

4.3% 4.0% 2.5%

3.0-3.5%

(l.w)

4.0% (h.w.)

2,5% - 3,0% 6.0% 5.2% 3.7% 2.9% 5.0% 3.2% 3.3% 5.0% 4.2% 6.5% 3.5% 4.2% 4.2% 2.6% 2.5% 3.9% 3.5% 3.5% 4.8%

National Average

Period of rearing

(days)51* 35.0 35.0 30 - 38 37 - 40 45.0 43.5 35.0 36.9 35/46 47.4 37.1 40.0 41.5 45.0 41.0 35.00 42.0 37.8 41.0 37.7 38.5 37.0 42.0

2013

15/01/2015

Import quota Ukraine

Poultrymeat

Allocated and available quantities (1)

(kgs)

Commission

Regulation

Product Order

Nr

Origin Annual volume Available volume

for the quarter

Allocated

quantity

Allocated part

of available

Available next

quarter


Regulation Nr for the quarter quantity of available

volume (%)

quarter

JANUARY - MARCH 2015

413/2014 Poultrymeat 09.4273Ukraine

16 000 000 4 000 000 3 999 992 100.0% 4 000 000

09.4274 20 000 000 5 000 000 900 000 18.0% 5 000 000

(1) Data mentioned in this table are just for information (only those published in the Official Journal are legally binding)

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Documents

EU Market Situation for Poultry Common - UPA · EU market situation for Poultry 19 February 2015 Saudi Arabia 118 019 9.3% 151 520 10.7% 149 310 10.4% 154 775 10.9% 123 559 8.2% -