ESIB Turkey Strategy 2014

8/13/2019 ESIB Turkey Strategy 2014

1/31

FIT FOR

A NEW ERA

2014 Turkey Strategy Report

Bittersweet Symphony, 17 January 2014Sevgi Onur, Head of Research, +90 850 201 94 81, [email protected], Global Securities

Espirito Santo Investment Bank , London sales desk, +44 203 429 2013

This report was produced by Global Securities and distributed by Espirito Santo Investment BankResearch under a third party distribution arrangement. For further disclosures please refer to the

final pages. This report is not authorized for distribution in the US.

Note that all data are per 9th January 2014 closing


2/31

1

Bittersweet Symphony!"#$ &'( ' )*+, )-.'/0.* ,*'+ 1-+ /2* 34+50(2 *640/, 7'+5*/8 &0/2 +0(*(

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;-++4B/0-9 operation, &20;2 7':* /2* 09:*@ :+-B C, EA 09 /2* .'(/ ##

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3/31

2

Bittersweet Symphony

M*%C*.0*)*% /2'/% /2*%7'+5*/% 2':% 1-4+% :0(/09;/% B*+0-:(%-1% 20D2% )-.'/0.0/,% 09% #$Y%%0< b'94'+, /2* /20+: &**5 -1 O',Y /2* 7'+5*/ &'( C4..0(2 F=>?3#""

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C4+*'4;+'/( 09 /20( ;-++4B/0-9 B+-C* (2--5 /2* 34+50(2 7'+5*/

(0D9010;'9/.,?3%# %109


4/31

3

Sensitivity Analysis

R4+ C'(* (;*9'+0- 1-+ 34+50(2 *640/0*( 0( C'(*: -9 ' EA +0(5 1+** +'/* '9: GA *640/, +0(5 B+*70478 (09;* &* *@B*;/ #"P,*'+ 34+50(2 C-9:

+'/*( /- (/'C0.0f* '+-49: EA 09 !"#N -9 ')*+'D*< 320( 07B.0*( ' C-//-7P4B 09:*@ /'+D*/ -1 ;


5/314

Stock Sensitivity to Risk Metrics

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>UT[T FPL H^QRS FPL HR`? FdL 33\`[ FdL H^QRS FdL à`ZO FPL

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3R`?R FPL U\[OT FdL ZZRS` FdL 3\[ZO FdL

W\R3R FPL `\ZS[ FdL `TWT? FdL `\ZS[ FdL

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33\`[ FPL ZZRS` FPL `[?Ta FdL

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6/31 5

Political Scenarios

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7/31 6

What happened since December 17 and what is next?

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?-4+;*Y /2* Z=38 _.-C'. ?*;4+0/0*(


11/3110

Turkish Economic Outlook

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13/3112


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23/31

22

Leaders and Laggards of 2013

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26/31

25

Coverage Universe Update

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27/31

26



H-D'9 Q-.:09D =4, =4, #

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28/31

27



SabancQ-.:09D =4, =4, ##

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3+'5,' Z'7 =4, =4, !

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3mB+'( a*4/+'. a*4/+'. NI


29/31

28

Disclosure

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30/31

29

Disclosure

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/- 7'5* '9 09)*(/7*9/ :*;0(0-9 '9: /2* +*;0B0*9/ -1 /20( +*B-+/ 74(/ 7'5* 0/( -&9 09:*B*9:*9/ '((*((7*9/ '9: :*;0(0-9( +*D'+:09D '9, (*;4+0/0*( -+ 109'9;0'. 09(/+47*9/(

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109'9;0'. ':)0;*< 32* C*2')0-4+ -1 /2* 34+50(2 S0+' '9: -/2*+ *@;2'9D* +'/*( 7', '11*;/ /2* )'.4*8 B+0;* -+ 09;-7* -1 /2* (2'+*( 7*9/0-9*: 09 /20( +*B-+/< >9 '::0/0-98 09)*(/-+( 09

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/2* 09)*(/-+( :-70;0.*OUR\3`a3%H>?3\>=]3R\%H>?ZSR?]\T? 320( +*B-+/ &'( :0(/+0C4/*: C, T(Bv+0/- ?'9/- >9)*(/7*9/ ='95 \*(*'+;2 (ESIBR),' D.-C'. C+'9: 9'7* 1-+ /2* *640/, +*(*'+;2 /*'7( -1 ='9;- T(Bv+0/- ?'9/- :* >9)*(/07*9/-8

?9)*(/07*9/-8 ?9 +*.'/0-9 /- /20( +*B-+/8 T?>= 0( -9., ' :0(/+0C4/-+ '9: 2'( 9-/ 09/+-:4;*: '9, 7'/*+0'. ;2'9D*( 09 /2* ;-9/*9/( -1 /20( +*B-+/ 9-+ 09 /2* ';/4'. +*;-77*9:'/0-9 09;.4:*: /2*+*09

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ESIB Turkey Strategy 2014