ERTAC Growth Approach - EGUs

ERTAC-EGU Development Group - WebinarMay 16, 2013

Robert Lopez, WI-DNR - Presenter

Basic Design Approach to Hourly Growth

• Reliable, Regular and “Current-but-Stable” Data• Open Access for Assumptions & Inputs• Easy adjustments (preprocessing) and sensitivities• Hourly sensitivity to growth forecasts• Sensitivity to system characteristics – fuel & unit-type• Sensitivity to Peak vs. Annual Trends• Simple QA and Troubleshooting

Current Status for Growth Forecasts• Transitioned from AEO2010 to AEO2013 for core annual

forecast – straightforward for EIA regions but different footprint than first round

• For Peak Hours growth, transitioned first to NERC 2011 data, then in 2013 to NERC 2012 data – more complicated crosswalk – comparison of 10 yr peak demand (MW) and annual net load (Mwh) provides for an “increment” to core annual forecasts

• Current peak data supports regional sensitivities, but not as a specific fuel/type sensitivity – depends now on annual trend as primary driver for fuel/type future

Old EIA EMM(NEMS) Map - 2010

IPM/NEEDS/ERTAC2010 Regions MapBeta Testing used this Regions Map as a starting Point - reqEMM Crosswalk to apply Rates

Key Version 1.6/1.65 & 2.0 IssuesGrowth Rate Component

• Current Model demands single regional footprint for annual & peak forecasts – v2 might use two separate footprints w/o crosswalk (see maps)

• NERC footprint for regions has changed and will keep changing on the margin – depends on utility wholesale market participation (see maps)

• Need for enhanced peak demand episode trend projection based on fuel & unit type – best may be trend projection from hourly CAMD data because reflects arms-length wholesale market impact

EIA EMM(NEMS) Map – 2011, 2012, 2013& Update to ERTAC Core Regions - 2013

ES&D 2012 – NERC Refined Assessment Regions (data will go back to 2009 & forecasts 10 yrs out – release of data expected late 2012)

Annual Growth Issues - Trends• Multi-year trend toward greater efficiency combined with recession to diminish

annual growth• Annual US trend shows core coal-to-gas, enhanced demand management and

oil-to-gas transitions on the margin along with steadily increasing wind & solar resource

• Demand Peak Trend projections show broad region picture of a slower peak growth compared to core annual growth – especially through next decade – but trends will reconverge

• Monthly power data usage is consistent with annual trend & shows high sensitivity to marginal natural gas price

• State-by-state trends are not 100% consistent though coal & oil seem on a long term slide & all but two/three states show major NG increase (consistent with 2012 history)

• 2012 actual peaks did not exceed 2006/2007/2011 on average but used much more natural gas relative to coal

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Pennsylvania Trend Forecast – Monthly Generation

Discussion Options - Growth

• State and Fuel specific questions

• Changing Maps Footprint

• Core peak vs annual sensitivities

• Likely projection (AEO 2014 & later) updates