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Asiamoney’s
2013
Best Domestic
Equity House
Spotlight
1 April 2015
Disclosure: Bahana Securities does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in
making their investment decision.
Please see the important disclaimer information on the back of this report
*Based on consensus’ recent changes ↑ (up), ↓ (down), ↔ (unchanged)
2014
Finance Asia's
Best
Equity House
Alpha
Southeast Asia
2014 Best
Research Call
FMCG Sector
Asiamoney's
2013
Best Domestic
Equity House
Indonesia market update: 4Q14 results round-up
Harry Su E-mail: [email protected] Phone: +6221 250 5735
The good, the bad & the ugly
Worse-than-expected deterioration in 4Q14 operating and net earnings
With 93 stocks out of 95 stocks under our coverage (76% of the total market
capitalization of the index) having already reported 4Q14 earnings, it is safe to
say that last quarter had been one of the worst result seasons in the past few
years for the Indonesian stock market. Exhibit 11 shows that more than 50%,
or 48 stocks, booked 4Q14 performances which were below our expectations,
suggesting a worse-than-expected economic downturn for Indonesia. In
aggregate, operating profit growth for our basket of stocks only reached 1.8%
y-y (exhibit 1), a deceleration when compared to the 8.1% y-y growth reported
in 4Q13. On the bottom line, 4Q14 net profit growth of -3.2% y-y also
deteriorated versus 4Q13’s level of 0.7%, mainly dragged down by sectors
listed in exhibit 4, all of which we rate as UNDERWEIGHT, with the exception of
Poultry. We rate Poultry as NEUTRAL, as it is currently undergoing
improvement in 1Q15 on the back of higher DOC (+100% to around
IDR3,500/DOC in 1Q15 versus 4Q14) and broiler prices (+35% to around
IDR17,500/kg over the same period).
The Good: Property, Metals & Infra
Of the three sectors listed in this category, which have booked above-market
growth rates at both the operating and net profit levels, Property was the most
surprising to us, mainly due to the performances of three stocks: APLN (on
resolved construction and building licensing issues), SMRA (due to faster
recognition on increased contributions of landed projects) and CTRP (stemming
from a new accounting practice on recurring income). On the metals front, the
sector was mostly boosted by the performances of INCO (due to cost
efficiencies) and PSAB (on a production ramp-up as two of its new mines have
started operations). Going forward, with QE in both Japan and the Eurozone
taking place, we expect money to be put into precious metals, allowing for
further improved performance, particularly for gold/silver plays. For
infrastructure-related companies, we see severe deceleration in terms of y-y
performance mainly due to the election effect, which resulted in construction
delays. However, the sector’s above-market performance was mainly supported
by forays into non-core businesses such as property and pre-cast.
The Bad: Consumer, Banks, Telco-related & Cement
In the “bad” sector, there were four industries with mixed performances in
terms of operating and net-profit results relative to the market (exhibit 3). In
the consumer space, earnings, in line with our preference, were mainly
supported by the staples’ stability which experienced accelerating growth in
4Q14 compared to levels in 4Q13. However, consumer discretionary
(retail/media) suffered on the back of swelling operating expenses such as
salaries, utilities and rentals, which outstripped top-line growth (for retailers).
For media companies, slower growth in ad-spend capped top-line growth while
higher programming costs eroded margins. In the banking sector, earnings
deceleration was caused by tighter liquidity, slower loan growth and increased
provisioning. In the telco-related industry, we observed improvement in 4Q14
compared to 4Q13, due to easing competition which resulted in support for
Exhibit 1. Market performance
Operating profit Net profit
4Q13 4Q14 4Q13 4Q14
y-y growth (%) y-y growth (%)
Bahana cover. 8.1 1.8 0.7 (3.2) Source: Companies, Bahana
Exhibit 2. The Good
Operating profit Net profit
4Q13 4Q14 4Q13 4Q14
y-y growth (%) y-y growth (%)
Property 9.5 76.0 (5.7) 114.6
Metals (36.9) 115.3 (82.6) 56.4
Infra-related 38.4 9.4 55.9 16.1 Source: Companies, Bahana
Exhibit 3. The Bad
Operating profit Net profit
4Q13 4Q14 4Q13 4Q14
y-y growth (%) y-y growth (%)
Consumer: 14.0 (3.1) 7.5 4.9
Discretionary. 24.2 (28.0) 19.7 (1.3)
Staples 9.9 8.4 1.9 8.2
Banks 20.1 2.9 12.9 3.4
Telco-related (21.2) 12.7 (30.0) 3.2
Cement 18.8 (6.6) 16.8 (2.8) Source: Companies
Exhibit 4. The Ugly
Operating profit Net profit
4Q13 4Q14 4Q13 4Q14
y-y growth (%) y-y growth (%)
Automotive 18.4 (7.1) 10.5 (18.3)
Plantations 67.4 (28.3) 40.2 (29.8)
Oil-related 24.8 (17.5) 0.4 (30.5)
Coal-related (28.1) (2.2) 5.1 (64.8)
Poultry 68.0 (51.0) (53.6) (143.9) Source: Companies, Bahana
Exhibit 5. Sector outperformers, ytd
9.2 8.8 8.8
6.1
4.4
0
2
4
6
8
10
0
2
4
6
8
10
Automotive Property Banks Consumer Coal
(%) (%)
Source: Bloomberg, Bahana
1 April 2015
Bahana Securities – Equity Research – Spotlight
2014
Finance Asia's
Best
Equity House
Asiamoney's
2013
Best Domestic
Equity House
Alpha
Southeast Asia
2014 Best
Research Call
FMCG Sector
ARPU and margins. Note that for the telco-retailers (TELE and ERAA), earnings
were eroded by weak distribution margins from Samsung on an oversupply
situation. In cement, players suffered from weak volumes due to the election
effect, while on the cost front, higher electricity tariffs squeezed margins.
Looking at 1Q15 performance, we expect margin weakness to persist due to
the January 2015 cement price cut of IDR3,000/bag.
The Ugly: Auto, Plantations, Oil-related, Coal-related & Poultry
In this “ugly” category (exhibit 4), the poultry sector was the worst performer,
with weak DOC prices as well as poor margins attributed to USD-linked costs
which suffered due to IDR depreciation. However, we note that we expect a
turnaround to take place starting in 1Q15, supported by a DOC and broiler
price recovery. In the automotive sector, poor performance stemmed from
unexciting volumes and weak margins as a result of escalating competition,
which we expect to persist into 1Q15. For the plantation sector, operating
performance was dragged down by weak ASP due to the lower global oil price
and weak production volumes due to unsupportive weather conditions. Looking
forward, we expect these negative trends in CPO to continue in 1Q15. In the
oil-related sector, operating performance was mainly dragged down by lower oil
prices and asset write-downs. For coal, PTBA’s sales of higher coal cv to PLN
supported the sector’s operating performance, while poor bottom-line
performance resulted from impairment losses due to new accounting standards
which resulted in the mark-to-market of assets.
Market: Retain NEUTRAL rating with end-2015 index target of 5,800
In sum, while we retain our end-2015 index target of 5,800, we remain
cautious on the Indonesian market in the lead-up to the expected Fed rate
hike, particularly given the weak IDR. We note that, for every 1% IDR
depreciation against the USD, we estimate that Indonesia’s market EPS growth
would decline by 0.8%. Additionally, we are uncomfortable with the recent
decoupling between the market performance and the IDR, suggesting that the
rise in the index is not going to be well supported by earnings (exhibit 9). This
is in line with weak corporate earnings growth as can be seen by the lower-
than-expected 4Q14 results, which we expect to persist into 1Q15. Hence, we
retain our NEUTRAL rating, particularly given limited upside to our index target.
At this stage of the market cycle, our top 10 picks (exhibit 10) are mostly
defensives (staples and telcos), although we are starting to adopt a more
positive view on precious metals due to QEs in Japan and the Eurozone. Hence,
our new inclusion of PSAB as one of our top picks. Additionally, we are positive
on the shipping sector on President Jokowi’s maritime measures, with SOCI
being added into our top buy list. On a more negative note, we remove JSMR,
WIKA and PTPP from our top buy list on possible negative sentiment stemming
from the government’s tax revenue shortfall leading to budget cuts in
infrastructure spending.
Exhibit 6. Sector underperformers, ytd
(2.3)
(6.0)
(9.9)
(13.8)
(19.5) (19.7)(20.5)
(25)
(20)
(15)
(10)
(5)
0
(25)
(20)
(15)
(10)
(5)
0
Infrastructure Telco Plantations Poultry Metals Oil-related Cement
(%) (%)
Source: Bloomberg, Bahana
Exhibit 7. Regional PER comparison
20.9 20.2
19.5
17.0 16.7
15.4 14.7
14.2
12.9
10
13
16
19
22
India Philippines Indonesia China Malaysia South
Korea
Thailand Singapore Hong Kong
(x)
Average: 16.8x
Source: Bloomberg, Bahana
Exhibit 8. Regional EPS growth comparison
19.4
16.8
15.0
10.9 9.5
8.4
5.3 4.1
1.3
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
21
South Korea Thailand Philippines Indonesia India Malaysia China Singapore Hong Kong
(%)
Average: 10.1%
Source: Bloomberg, Bahana
Exhibit 9. JCI index vs. IDR currency
11,600
11,800
12,000
12,200
12,400
12,600
12,800
13,000
13,200
13,4004,900
5,000
5,100
5,200
5,300
5,400
5,500
30-Sep 31-Oct 30-Nov 31-Dec 31-Jan 28-Feb 31-Mar
(IDR)(JCI)
JCI index USDIDR
Decoupling between
equity and currency
markets
Source: Bloomberg as of 31 March 2015
Exhibit 10. Top 10 picks
Stock Mkt cap. Price TP Upside EPS growth PER PBV Yield ROE Ytd perf.
(USDm) (IDR) (IDR) (%) (%) (x) (x) (%) (%) (%)
TLKM 22,280 2,890 3,350 16 13.2 16.7 4.0 3.9 25.0 0.9
GGRM 7,505 51,000 70,000 37 13.7 16.1 2.7 2.6 17.6 (16.0)
KLBF 6,686 1,865 2,000 7 15.4 35.7 8.0 1.3 24.1 1.9
ICBP 6,544 14,675 18,200 24 18.7 27.5 5.4 1.6 20.8 12.0
MYOR 1,977 28,900 32,500 12 108.9 36.1 5.0 0.7 15.2 38.3
ISAT 1,773 4,265 5,150 21 (103.8) 368.7. 1.6 0.0 0.4 5.3
MAPI 667 5,250 5,750 10 40.6 24.7 3.0 0.6 12.7 3.4
ROTI 472 1,220 1,750 43 25.2 23.9 5.4 1.0 24.9 (11.9)
SOCI 302 560 800 43 (8.1) 7.7 1.0 31.7 14.3 (15.2)
PSAB 257 635 1,400 120 (21.8) 6.3 0.9 11.9 15.6 17.6
Source: Bloomberg, Bahana estimates; PER, PBV, yield and ROE are 2015F Stock prices as of 31 March 2015
1 April 2015
Bahana Securities – Equity Research – Spotlight
2014
Finance Asia's
Best
Equity House
Asiamoney's
2013
Best Domestic
Equity House
Alpha
Southeast Asia
2014 Best
Research Call
FMCG Sector
Exhibit 11. Summary of 4Q14 results releases Above In line Below Not released
ACES ASII AALI BUMI
ADHI BBCA ADRO HRUM
AKRA BBNI ANJT
APLN BBRI ANTM
BJBR BMRI ASRI
BSDE CASS ASSA
CTRP CTRA BEST
KAEF GGRM BBKP
LPKR ICBP BBTN LPPF INTP BDMN
MPPA KLBF BIRD
PTBA LSIP BJTM
PWON MYOR BTPN
SCMA PSAB BWPT
SIMP PTPP CPIN
SMRA ROTI ECII
SOCI SIDO ERAA
SRIL SMBR EXCL SSIA SMGR GIAA
TINS UNVR GJTL
TOTL WIKA HERO
WSKT IMAS
WTON INCO
MLPL INDF
ISAT
ITMG
JPFA
JSMR KIJA
KRAS
LPCK
MAIN
MAPI
MNCN
MEDC
PGAS
RALS RANC
SGRO
SMCB
TAXI
TBLA
TELE
TLKM
TOWR
TSPC
UNTR WINS
24 21 48 2
Source: Bahana
Arguably the worst result season we
have observed in the past few years for the Indonesian market
1 April 2015
Bahana Securities – Equity Research – Spotlight
2014
Finance Asia's
Best
Equity House
Asiamoney's
2013
Best Domestic
Equity House
Alpha
Southeast Asia
2014 Best
Research Call
FMCG Sector
Exhibit 12. 4Q14 operating profit gainers & losers Price Operating profit y-y growth (%)
Companies Ticker Rating (IDR) 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 Ramayana Lestari Sentosa RALS IJ REDUCE 750 (19.3) 0.1 (32.6) (16.3) 1415.8
Express Transindo TAXI IJ REDUCE 860 36.0 49.8 64.5 (46.4) 402.4
Lippo Karawaci LPKR IJ REDUCE 1350 (21.6) 37.4 31.0 14.3 369.3
Vale Indonesia* INCO IJ BUY 3,235 (67.7) (42.7) 184.1 418.7 231.9
Summarecon Agung SMRA IJ REDUCE 1,720 (19.3) (2.7) 0.3 47.7 112.6
Alam Sutera Realty ASRI IJ REDUCE 555 (30.6) (31.8) (24.4) 45.2 109.7
Ciputra Property CTRP IJ REDUCE 755 (31.4) (56.4) 111.2 64.3 104.2
Japfa Comfeed Indonesia JPFA IJ BUY 780 (32.7) 9.6 7.4 (65.6) 103.7
Wijaya Karya Beton WTON IJ HOLD 1,265 -na 16.3 21.1 (27.5) 96.2
Bank Jatim BJTM IJ HOLD 550 (41.3) 40.3 11.5 (18.0) 80.0
Ciputra Development CTRA IJ REDUCE 1,475 26.6 (7.4) 77.8 24.0 78.9
Matahari Putra Prima MPPA IJ HOLD 3,960 (894.7) 105.0 96.4 38.3 71.9
Agung Podomoro Land APLN IJ REDUCE 440 41.0 4.4 (48.8) 37.8 71.0
Indofood CBP ICBP IJ BUY 14,675 (41.6) (0.2) 1.6 18.0 49.1
Tempo Scan Pacific TSPC IJ BUY 2,320 (50.9) 6.1 0.9 (13.0) 47.4
Waskita Karya WSKT IJ HOLD 1,780 na 42.1 (9.9) 22.2 44.8
Gajah Tunggal GJTL IJ HOLD 1,325 (53.8) 1.5 (30.2) (19.0) 41.1
Telekomunikasi Indonesia TLKM IJ BUY 2,890 (19.9) 9.1 2.5 (3.1) 40.2
Bank Jabar Banten BJBR IJ HOLD 1,000 59.3 (11.7) (54.3) (25.8) 37.6
Unilever Indonesia UNVR IJ BUY 39650 9.7 (0.5) 6.1 (3.3) 36.2
Pakuwon Jati PWON IJ REDUCE 515 37.4 9.9 37.7 17.1 34.0
Wijaya Karya WIKA IJ BUY 3,495 23.2 14.0 21.8 (4.9) 31.4
Cardig Aero Service CASS IJ HOLD 1,250 18.4 17.4 (11.3) 5.1 30.9
Bank Negara Indonesia BBNI IJ BUY 7,225 12.0 19.2 13.9 1.3 29.1
United Tractors UNTR IJ REDUCE 21,800 24.0 23.5 42.8 11.3 28.7
Gudang Garam GGRM IJ BUY 51,000 11.6 39.9 13.6 32.5 28.2
Tunas Baru Lampung TBLA IJ HOLD 645 148.2 26.3 64.7 148.0 27.5
Matahari Department Store LPPF IJ BUY 19,700 28.2 29.9 24.2 12.8 22.1
Sarana Menara Nusanatara TOWR IJ BUY 4,020 30.6 35.2 28.3 59.9 19.0
AKR Corporindo AKRA IJ REDUCE 5,125 (2.6) 24.0 34.7 37.6 17.9
Bumi Serpong Damai BSDE IJ REDUCE 2,135 54.9 (56.7) 66.8 35.9 17.7
Aneka Tambang ANTM IJ REDUCE 865 (119.3) (112.5) 60.3 (71.9) 15.4
Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa INTP IJ REDUCE 21,925 (8.9) (8.4) (8.8) (2.4) 10.3
Bank Central Asia BBCA IJ HOLD 14825 11.2 33.2 21.0 19.4 10.0
Kalbe Farma KLBF IJ BUY 1,865 10.7 11.8 7.5 8.0 6.5
Kimia Farma KAEF IJ BUY 1315 77.0 (54.9) 140.5 7.6 6.1
Nippon Indosari Corpindo ROTI IJ BUY 1220 28.5 (7.2) 49.7 150.5 5.8
Pembangunan Perumahan PTPP IJ BUY 3,795 7.5 77.5 (6.7) 1.4 3.9
Kawasan Industri Jababeka KIJA IJ BUY 331 16.5 (9.0) 11.1 22.3 3.5
Tiphone Mobile Indonesia TELE IJ BUY 975 47.8 37.6 39.9 23.3 3.3
ACE Hardware Indonesia ACES IJ REDUCE 735 12.1 38.4 23.0 3.1 2.0
Market 8.1 12.9 16.1 3.0 1.8
Salim Ivomas Pratama SIMP IJ HOLD 700 125.3 115.6 462.8 17.8 0.8
Bank Mandiri BMRI IJ HOLD 12,475 32.9 15.3 18.0 10.6 0.4
Bank Rakyat Indonesia BBRI IJ BUY 13275 18.6 16.2 17.8 6.5 (1.9)
Bank Tabungan Pensiunan Negara BTPN IJ BUY 4,220 (8.2) (6.9) (9.8) (24.9) (4.2)
Semen Indonesia SMGR IJ HOLD 13,650 1.9 2.5 10.4 (9.2) (4.3)
Lippo Cikarang LPCK IJ BUY 11,675 54.0 81.0 20.2 105.2 (6.0)
Surya Citra Media SCMA IJ REDUCE 3395 35.9 0.8 34.0 (16.4) (6.7)
Jasa Marga JSMR IJ BUY 7,200 14.5 2.4 33.2 15.6 (9.7)
Source: Companies, Bloomberg, Bahana estimates Stock prices as of 31 March 2015 *USD reporting
1 April 2015
Bahana Securities – Equity Research – Spotlight
2014
Finance Asia's
Best
Equity House
Asiamoney's
2013
Best Domestic
Equity House
Alpha
Southeast Asia
2014 Best
Research Call
FMCG Sector
Exhibit 13. 4Q14 operating profit gainers & losers (continued) Price Operating profit y-y growth (%)
Companies Ticker Rating (IDR) 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 Surya Semesta Internusa SSIA IJ HOLD 1,140 (33.7) (65.0) (8.2) (59.8) (10.1)
Astra International ASII IJ REDUCE 8,575 32.8 30.1 24.8 3.9 (10.4)
Semen Baturaja SMBR IJ REDUCE 350 10.8 45.3 (5.6) 4.2 (10.7)
Adhi Karya ADHI IJ BUY 3,055 71.6 (47.3) (7.2) (41.9) (11.6)
Perusahaan Gas Negara* PGAS IJ HOLD 4800 (3.2) (3.7) 32.5 14.2 (12.1)
Media Nusantara Citra MNCN IJ REDUCE 2,865 2.3 (6.4) 12.2 1.9 (13.1)
Sido Muncul SIDO IJ HOLD 570 na 51.3 (12.9) (45.2) (14.6)
Adi Sarana Armada ASSA IJ REDUCE 164 8.4 32.3 (21.9) (11.9) (15.3)
Bank Danamon BDMN IJ HOLD 5,125 47.2 (12.8) (37.1) (37.6) (22.5)
Mayora Indah MYOR IJ BUY 28,900 (4.5) 14.7 (18.0) (98.4) (22.6)
Total Bangun Persada TOTL IJ BUY 1,005 36.7 (26.0) (41.9) (26.5) (26.6)
Mitra Adiperkasa MAPI IJ HOLD 5,250 (6.7) 7.5 (10.1) (68.3) (29.0)
Bank Tabungan Negara BBTN IJ BUY 1255 54.4 2.3 (40.1) (39.6) (30.1)
XL Axiata EXCL IJ BUY 4,350 (23.0) 8.5 (53.3) (77.5) (32.6)
Bukit Asam PTBA IJ REDUCE 10,750 (4.8) (13.8) 75.6 156.3 (34.4)
Krakatau Steel* KRAS IJ REDUCE 428 na na na 6.9 (35.2)
Astra Agro Lestari AALI IJ BUY 24300 34.3 101.4 102.0 41.9 (35.6)
London Sumatra Indonesia LSIP IJ HOLD 1,730 72.7 212.9 239.4 42.7 (38.6)
Erajaya Swasembada ERAA IJ REDUCE 875 (25.0) 18.7 (0.7) (14.2) (39.5)
Wintermar Offshore Marines* WINS IJ HOLD 545 76.1 48.1 18.1 (22.0) (40.2)
Indofood Sukses Makmur INDF IJ BUY 7,450 21.6 51.2 56.8 6.2 (45.4)
Timah TINS IJ HOLD 950 509.7 (7.7) 341.0 50,655.6 (47.2)
Bank Bukopin BBKP IJ HOLD 710 (10.2) 2.6 (4.8) (40.8) (47.5)
Indo Tambangraya Megah* ITMG IJ REDUCE 16,900 (20.5) (7.1) 16.4 (46.1) (48.1)
Holcim Indonesia SMCB IJ REDUCE 1,530 6.4 6.6 (23.4) (29.9) (51.0)
Electronic City ECII IJ BUY 1325 0.3 (42.2) (60.6) 5.3 (51.3)
Bekasi Fajar Industrial Estate BEST IJ BUY 580 76.2 (53.0) (52.0) (32.1) (53.4)
Sampoerna Agro SGRO IJ HOLD 1,880 17.5 334.7 774.4 855.1 (57.6)
Adaro Energy* ADRO IJ REDUCE 950 (3.5) 20.2 (22.5) (35.6) (63.7)
Charoen Pokphand Indonesia CPIN IJ HOLD 3,545 168.4 6.4 (8.9) (52.4) (64.0)
Medco Energi* MEDC IJ BUY 3,100 33.8 (8.3) (23.0) (53.6) (65.9)
Austindo Nusantara Jaya ANJT IJ REDUCE 1,180 41.5 0.9 na 150.3 (82.0)
J Resources PSAB IJ BUY 635 na (232.5) 144.4 (159.1) (239.1)
Indomobil Sukses International IMAS IJ REDUCE 4,100 (109.9) (0.8) (38.8) (99.5) (400.4)
Garuda Indonesia* GIAA IJ HOLD 492 (80.9) (73.7) 148.3 11.3 (767.5)
Multipolar MLPL IJ BUY 955 (126.2) (747.3) (380.6) 100.0 na
Sritex SRIL IJ BUY 229 na na na na na
Bumi Resources* BUMI IJ REDUCE 78 (170.8) (2.9) 26.8 (152.1) na
Harum Energy* HRUM IJ REDUCE 1,500 (60.0) 3.1 (45.5) (97.8) na
Supermarket HERO HERO IJ REDUCE 1,805 3.5 12.7 (104.8) (184.9) na
Supra Boga Lestari RANC IJ HOLD 420 (88.0) 31.5 (66.3) (74.3) na
Malindo Feedmill MAIN IJ BUY 1,685 (18.8) 8.2 (44.2) na na
Indosat ISAT IJ BUY 4265 (103.0) 5.9 (0.6) 50.7 na
BW Plantation BWPT IJ REDUCE 338 163.8 97.9 13.8 (14.6) na
Blue Bird BIRD IJ REDUCE 9,950 na na na na na
Soechi Lines* SOCI IJ BUY 560 na na na na na
Source: Companies, Bloomberg, Bahana estimates Stock prices as of 31 March 2015
*USD reporting
1 April 2015
Bahana Securities – Equity Research – Spotlight
2014
Finance Asia's
Best
Equity House
Asiamoney's
2013
Best Domestic
Equity House
Alpha
Southeast Asia
2014 Best
Research Call
FMCG Sector
Exhibit 14. 4Q14 net profit gainers & losers Price Net profit y-y growth (%)
Companies Ticker Rating (IDR) 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 Alam Sutera Realty ASRI IJ REDUCE 555 (98.0) (23.3) (40.1) 153.3 2,954.2
Pakuwon Jati PWON IJ REDUCE 515 37.8 24.2 46.7 79.0 403.7
Lippo Karawaci LPKR IJ REDUCE 1,350 (3.3) 34.7 13.6 3.8 373.7
AKR Corporindo AKRA IJ REDUCE 5,125 (65.4) 19.5 1.6 16.7 301.1
Summarecon Agung SMRA IJ REDUCE 1,720 (33.8) (14.2) (10.3) 29.5 131.6
Wijaya Karya Beton WTON IJ HOLD 1,265 na 8.7 47.1 (11.6) 115.9
Ciputra Property CTRP IJ REDUCE 755 (50.5) (84.3) 61.6 9.5 112.9
J Resources PSAB IJ BUY 635 na (181.5) 133.8 (49.8) 66.7
Ciputra Development CTRA IJ REDUCE 1,475 20.1 5.4 75.5 2.7 62.0
Matahari Putra Prima MPPA IJ HOLD 3,960 84.9 (19.4) (4.3) 52.8 61.5
Agung Podomoro Land APLN IJ REDUCE 440 71.5 20.8 (70.7) 0.8 57.4
Waskita Karya WSKT IJ HOLD 1,780 na 25.8 5.6 10.0 49.0
Indofood CBP ICBP IJ BUY 14,675 (29.2) 7.0 7.6 20.8 44.8
Bank Jabar Banten BJBR IJ HOLD 1,000 13.1 (0.6) (59.8) (32.5) 43.6
Matahari Department Store LPPF IJ BUY 19,700 77.8 26.1 30.8 10.2 43.1
Bank Jatim BJTM IJ HOLD 550 (27.1) 4.4 9.8 (20.9) 36.9
Unilever Indonesia UNVR IJ BUY 39,650 6.5 (5.0) 6.8 (5.2) 33.9
Bank Tabungan Pensiunan Negara BTPN IJ BUY 4220 (36.0) (13.9) (22.0) (31.0) 26.9
Bank Negara Indonesia BBNI IJ BUY 7,225 25.3 12.3 15.1 18.5 25.9
Gudang Garam GGRM IJ BUY 51,000 8.4 35.2 12.3 28.6 21.4
Pembangunan Perumahan PTPP IJ BUY 3,795 (0.8) 44.4 (15.5) 91.7 19.5
Wijaya Karya WIKA IJ BUY 3,495 2.6 6.8 (6.8) 7.7 19.4
Cardig Aero Service CASS IJ HOLD 1,250 26.9 13.6 (1.9) 7.8 18.5
Surya Citra Media SCMA IJ REDUCE 3,395 3.0 9.2 50.0 (15.2) 14.0
Bumi Serpong Damai BSDE IJ REDUCE 2,135 40.2 (60.2) 563.5 7.8 13.7
Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa INTP IJ REDUCE 21,925 0.6 (1.5) 8.3 1.6 10.9
Bank Central Asia BBCA IJ HOLD 14825 13.0 23.9 22.1 7.5 10.2
Kalbe Farma KLBF IJ BUY 1865 13.0 10.9 4.7 11.2 5.5
Total Bangun Persada TOTL IJ BUY 1,005 22.1 (29.1) (43.0) (24.5) 5.3
Bank Rakyat Indonesia BBRI IJ BUY 13275 7.0 16.7 14.6 21.2 3.1
Telekomunikasi Indonesia TLKM IJ BUY 2890 10.5 7.6 3.1 2.6 1.4
Semen Indonesia SMGR IJ HOLD 13,650 0.4 5.4 12.6 (4.2) 0.9
Bank Mandiri BMRI IJ HOLD 12475 23.3 11.3 16.8 8.0 0.3
Adhi Karya ADHI IJ BUY 3,055 82.9 (71.5) 279.2 (62.9) (1.5)
Semen Baturaja SMBR IJ REDUCE 350 45.6 58.9 (36.3) 21.4 (1.8)
Sido Muncul SIDO IJ HOLD 570 - 77.1 28.7 (41.4) (2.2)
Lippo Cikarang LPCK IJ BUY 11,675 38.9 73.0 16.8 97.4 (2.3)
Kimia Farma KAEF IJ BUY 1,315 63.3 (4.4) 157.5 (6.9) (2.5)
Market JCI index 0.7 12.0 10.8 12.5 (3.2)
ACE Hardware Indonesia ACES IJ REDUCE 735 11.9 35.2 17.7 (2.3) (6.1)
Surya Semesta Internusa SSIA IJ HOLD 1,140 31.1 (94.0) (2.0) (63.2) (9.0)
Media Nusantara Citra MNCN IJ REDUCE 2,865 (29.4) 4.5 16.3 31.0 (11.4)
Nippon Indosari Corpindo ROTI IJ BUY 1,220 28.0 (18.3) 97.6 107.4 (15.3)
Jasa Marga JSMR IJ BUY 7200 4.8 24.0 (0.8) 25.1 (15.6)
Salim Ivomas Pratama SIMP IJ HOLD 700 88.3 93.4 3,693.3 (5.6) (19.2)
Astra International ASII IJ REDUCE 8575 25.3 25.3 12.8 0.7 (21.2)
Bukit Asam PTBA IJ REDUCE 10,750 (17.3) (7.2) 66.4 14.0 (25.4)
Bank Tabungan Negara BBTN IJ BUY 1,255 47.3 20.2 (41.8) (43.5) (28.7)
Timah TINS IJ HOLD 950 1,224.2 (35.7) (1,834.5) (70,644.6) (29.4)
Tiphone Mobile Indonesia TELE IJ BUY 975 40.1 17.6 18.8 16.9 (29.5)
Source: Companies, Bloomberg, Bahana estimates Stock prices as of 31 March 2015 *USD reporting
1 April 2015
Bahana Securities – Equity Research – Spotlight
2014
Finance Asia's
Best
Equity House
Asiamoney's
2013
Best Domestic
Equity House
Alpha
Southeast Asia
2014 Best
Research Call
FMCG Sector
Exhibit 15. 4Q14 net profit gainers & losers (continued) Price Net profit y-y growth (%)
Companies Ticker Rating (IDR) 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 Astra Agro Lestari AALI IJ BUY 24,300 20.6 120.2 62.0 165.4 (30.3)
Indo Tambangraya Megah* ITMG IJ REDUCE 16,900 (11.0) (8.7) 24.3 (54.0) (30.6)
London Sumatra Indonesia LSIP IJ HOLD 1730 102.7 142.9 216.3 (13.5) (33.2)
Kawasan Industri Jababeka KIJA IJ BUY 331 (87.6) 51.0 (8.5) (85.9) (34.3)
Indosat ISAT IJ BUY 4,265 909.7 (1,225.2) 1,094.6 (86.3) (34.6)
Perusahaan Gas Negara* PGAS IJ HOLD 4,800 (1.4) 14.1 17.7 33.1 (36.5)
Mayora Indah MYOR IJ BUY 28,900 26.6 11.5 (12.3) (117.8) (44.8)
Tempo Scan Pacific TSPC IJ BUY 2,320 (24.0) 4.5 8.7 (7.8) (46.8)
Bank Danamon BDMN IJ HOLD 5,125 1.4 (5.7) (37.3) (39.6) (51.9)
Wintermar Offshore Marines* WINS IJ HOLD 545 85.5 97.3 11.2 (18.4) (54.9)
Bekasi Fajar Industrial Estate BEST IJ BUY 580 55.0 (48.0) (1.0) (29.6) (57.2)
United Tractors UNTR IJ REDUCE 21,800 9.4 22.8 48.0 39.4 (58.9)
Sampoerna Agro SGRO IJ HOLD 1880 (13.5) 141.0 2,490.2 3,057.0 (66.7)
Ramayana Lestari Sentosa RALS IJ REDUCE 750 22.5 (2.9) (4.8) (0.2) (67.3)
Electronic City ECII IJ BUY 1,325 78.7 (13.8) (28.2) 83.3 (67.6)
Erajaya Swasembada ERAA IJ REDUCE 875 8.5 17.9 (39.2) (36.3) (71.3)
Holcim Indonesia SMCB IJ REDUCE 1,530 (19.5) 75.7 (55.7) (5.5) (72.9)
Bank Bukopin BBKP IJ HOLD 710 (8.1) 9.7 (2.9) (31.5) (74.7)
Medco Energi* MEDC IJ BUY 3,100 (137.4) 102.6 67.6 (82.9) (75.1)
Supra Boga Lestari RANC IJ HOLD 420 (8.1) 13.7 (78.6) (48.4) (75.3)
Express Transindo TAXI IJ REDUCE 860 103.4 34.8 35.8 (12.7) (75.9)
Adi Sarana Armada ASSA IJ REDUCE 164 93.6 7.9 (72.7) (47.6) (77.6)
Indofood Sukses Makmur INDF IJ BUY 7,450 (18.3) 87.7 (4.9) 315.2 (80.9)
Austindo Nusantara Jaya ANJT IJ REDUCE 1,180 27.9 23.3 na 176.7 (80.9)
Charoen Pokphand Indonesia CPIN IJ HOLD 3545 47.0 3.4 (27.4) (31.5) (89.5)
XL Axiata EXCL IJ BUY 4350 (79.7) 5.5 (342.7) (269.9) (91.2)
Japfa Comfeed Indonesia JPFA IJ BUY 780 (356.1) 8.7 (10.3) (97.9) (102.8)
Mitra Adiperkasa MAPI IJ HOLD 5,250 (28.9) 10.0 (34.4) (86.8) (129.9)
Gajah Tunggal GJTL IJ HOLD 1325 (123.9) (3.7) (193.1) (98.7) (153.0)
Indomobil Sukses International IMAS IJ REDUCE 4,100 (120.6) (26.5) (111.5) (215.6) (190.9)
Adaro Energy* ADRO IJ REDUCE 950 54.5 53.3 (37.1) (16.0) (192.7)
Aneka Tambang ANTM IJ REDUCE 865 (97.4) (99.1) (108.0) (387.6) (440.1)
Vale Indonesia* INCO IJ BUY 3,235 (127.2) (45.3) 368.1 2,042.6 (615.3)
Garuda Indonesia* GIAA IJ HOLD 492 (25.7) (11.9) 86.7 476.7 (643.8)
Tunas Baru Lampung TBLA IJ HOLD 645 (54.3) 69.4 84.5 338.1 (775.6)
Krakatau Steel* KRAS IJ REDUCE 428 na na na (39.1) (729.2)
Sritex SRIL IJ BUY 229 na na na na na
Supermarket HERO HERO IJ REDUCE 1,805 457.1 51.9 (39.8) (142.6) na
Sarana Menara Nusanatara TOWR IJ BUY 4,020 (40.6) 159.3 (20.5) (233.2) na
Multipolar MLPL IJ BUY 955 276.5 (99.1) (78.3) 209.7 na
Malindo Feedmill MAIN IJ BUY 1,685 (102.9) 7.5 (70.5) na na
BW Plantation BWPT IJ REDUCE 338 89.0 132.1 16.1 (17.4) na
Blue Bird BIRD IJ REDUCE 9950 Na Na Na Na Na
Soechi Lines* SOCI IJ BUY 560 Na Na Na Na na
Bumi Resources* BUMI IJ REDUCE 78 1.3 45.9 (55.9) 57.2 na
Harum Energy* HRUM IJ REDUCE 1500 6.9 31.3 (37.6) (91.5) na
Source: Companies, Bloomberg, Bahana estimates Stock prices as of 31 March 2015
*USD reporting
1 April 2015
Bahana Securities – Equity Research – Spotlight
2014
Finance Asia's
Best
Equity House
Asiamoney's
2013
Best Domestic
Equity House
Alpha
Southeast Asia
2014 Best
Research Call
FMCG Sector
Exhibit 16. Market performance
Operating profit y-y growth (%) Net profit y-y growth (%)
4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14
Bahana coverage 8.1 12.9 16.1 3.0 1.8 0.7 12.0 10.8 12.5 (3.2) Source: Companies, Bahana estimates
Exhibit 17. The Good: Breakdown by market cap
Operating profit y-y growth (%) Net profit y-y growth (%)
4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14
Property 9.5 (15.4) 23.4 23.1 76.0 (5.7) (18.3) 82.5 30.3 114.6
Bumi Serpong Damai 54.9 (56.7) 66.8 35.9 17.7 40.2 (60.2) 563.5 7.8 13.7
Lippo Karawaci (21.6) 37.4 31.0 14.3 369.3 (3.3) 34.7 13.6 3.8 373.7
Summarecon Agung (19.3) (2.7) 0.3 47.7 112.6 (33.8) (14.2) (10.3) 29.5 131.6
Pakuwon Jati 37.4 9.9 37.7 17.1 34.0 37.8 24.2 46.7 79.0 403.7
Ciputra Development 26.6 (7.4) 77.8 24.0 78.9 20.1 5.4 75.5 2.7 62.0
Alam Sutera Realty (30.6) (31.8) (24.4) 45.2 109.7 (98.0) (23.3) (40.1) 153.3 2,954.2
Agung Podomoro Land 41.0 4.4 (48.8) 37.8 71.0 71.5 20.8 (70.7) 0.8 57.4
Lippo Cikarang 54.0 81.0 20.2 105.2 (6.0) 38.9 73.0 16.8 97.4 (2.3)
Kawasan Industri Jababeka 16.5 (9.0) 11.1 22.3 3.5 (87.6) 51.0 (8.5) (85.9) (34.3)
Bekasi Fajar Industrial Estate 76.2 (53.0) (52.0) (32.1) (53.4) 55.0 (48.0) (1.0) (29.6) (57.2)
Surya Semesta Internusa (33.7) (65) (8.2) (59.8) (10.1) 31.1 (94.0) (2.0) (63.2) (9.0)
Ciputra Property (31.4) (56.4) 111.2 64.3 104.2 (50.5) (84.3) 61.6 9.5 112.9
Metals (4) (36.9) (56.6) 272.6 455.8 115.3 (82.6) (50.1) 856.7 (460.7) 56.4
Vale Indonesia* (67.7) (42.7) 184.1 418.7 231.9 (127.2) (45.3) 368.1 2,042.6 (615.3)
Aneka Tambang (119.3) (112.5) 60.3 (71.9) 15.4 (97.4) (99.1) (108.0) (387.6) (440.1)
Timah 509.7 (7.7) 341.0 50,655.6
(47.2) 1,224.2 (35.7) (1,834.5) (70,644.6) (29.4)
J Resources na (232.5) 144.4 (159.1) (239.1) na (181.5) 133.8 (49.8) 66.7
Infra-related (7) 38.4 9.4 10.2 0.1 9.4 55.9 14.0 (1.7) 8.4 16.1
Jasa Marga 14.5 2.4 33.2 15.6 (9.7) 4.8 24.0 (0.8) 25.1 (15.6)
Wijaya Karya 23.2 14.0 21.8 (4.9) 31.4 2.6 6.8 (6.8) 7.7 19.4
Pembangunan Perumahan 7.5 77.5 (6.7) 1.4 3.9 (0.8) 44.4 (15.5) 91.7 19.5
Waskita Karya na 42.1 (9.9) 22.2 44.8 na 25.8 5.6 10.0 49.0
Wijaya Karya Beton -na 16.3 21.1 (27.5) 96.2 na 8.7 47.1 (11.6) 115.9
Adhi Karya 71.6 (47.3) (7.2) (41.9) (11.6) 82.9 (71.5) 279.2 (62.9) (1.5)
Total Bangun Persada 36.7 (26.0) (41.9) (26.5) (26.6) 22.1 (29.1) (43.0) (24.5) 5.3 Source: Companies, Bahana estimates *USD reporting
1 April 2015
Bahana Securities – Equity Research – Spotlight
2014
Finance Asia's
Best
Equity House
Asiamoney's
2013
Best Domestic
Equity House
Alpha
Southeast Asia
2014 Best
Research Call
FMCG Sector
Exhibit 18. The Bad: Breakdown by market cap
Operating profit y-y growth (%) Net profit y-y growth (%)
4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14
Consumer 14.0 18.5 14.8 2.9 (3.1) 7.5 0.8 4.3 19.0 4.9
Unilever Indonesia 9.7 (0.5) 6.1 (3.3) 36.2 6.5 (5.0) 6.8 (5.2) 33.9
Gudang Garam 11.6 39.9 13.6 32.5 28.2 8.4 35.2 12.3 28.6 21.4
Kalbe Farma 10.7 11.8 7.5 8.0 6.5 13.0 10.9 4.7 11.2 5.5
Indofood CBP (41.6) (0.2) 1.6 18.0 49.1 (29.2) 7.0 7.6 20.8 44.8
Indofood Sukses Makmur 21.6 51.2 56.8 6.2 (45.4) (18.3) 87.7 (4.9) 315.2 (80.9)
Matahari Department Store 28.2 29.9 24.2 12.8 22.1 77.8 26.1 30.8 10.2 43.1
Surya Citra Media 35.9 0.8 34.0 (16.4) (6.7) 3.0 9.2 50.0 (15.2) 14.0
Media Nusantara Citra 2.3 (6.4) 12.2 1.9 (13.1) (29.4) 4.5 16.3 31.0 (11.4)
Mayora Indah (4.5) 14.7 (18.0) (98.4) (22.6) 26.6 11.5 (12.3) (117.8) (44.8)
Matahari Putra Prima (894.7) 105.0 96.4 38.3 71.9 84.9 (19.4) (4.3) 52.8 61.5
ACE Hardware Indonesia 12.1 38.4 23.0 3.1 2.0 11.9 35.2 17.7 (2.3) (6.1)
Tempo Scan Pacific (50.9) 6.1 0.9 (13.0) 47.4 (24.0) 4.5 8.7 (7.8) (46.8)
Multipolar (126.2) (747.3) (380.6) 100.0 na 276.5 (99.1) (78.3) 209.7 na
Mitra Adiperkasa (6.7) 7.5 (10.1) (68.3) (29.0) (28.9) 10.0 (34.4) (86.8) (129.9)
Sido Muncul na 51.3 (12.9) (45.2) (14.6) na 77.1 28.7 (41.4) (2.2)
Supermarket HERO 3.5 12.7 (104.8) (184.9) na 457.1 51.9 (39.8) (142.6) na
Kimia Farma 77.0 (54.9) 140.5 7.6 6.1 63.3 (4.4) 157.5 (6.9) (2.5)
Nippon Indosari Corpindo 28.5 (7.2) 49.7 150.5 5.8 28.0 (18.3) 97.6 107.4 (15.3)
Ramayana Lestari Sentosa (19.3) 0.1 (32.6) (16.3) 1,415.8 22.5 (2.9) (4.8) (0.2) (67.3)
Sritex na
na na na na na na na na na
Electronic City 0.3 (42.2) (60.6) 5.3 (51.3) 78.7 (13.8) (28.2) 83.3 (67.6)
Supra Boga Lestari (88.0) 31.5 (66.3) (74.3) na (8.1) 13.7 (78.6) (48.4) (75.3)
Banks (10) 20.1 12.0 10.3 3.1 2.9 12.9 13.2 9.4 6.3 3.4
Bank Central Asia 11.2 33.2 21.0 19.4 10.0 13.0 23.9 22.1 7.5 10.2
Bank Rakyat Indonesia 18.6 16.2 17.8 6.5 (1.9) 7.0 16.7 14.6 21.2 3.1
Bank Mandiri 32.9 15.3 18.0 10.6 0.4 23.3 11.3 16.8 8.0 0.3
Bank Negara Indonesia 12.0 19.2 13.9 1.3 29.1 25.3 12.3 15.1 18.5 25.9
Bank Danamon 47.2 (12.8) (37.1) (37.6) (22.5) 1.4 (5.7) (37.3) (39.6) (51.9) Bank Tabungan Pensiunan Negara
(8.2) (6.9) (9.8) (24.9) (4.2) (36.0) (13.9) (22.0) (31.0) 26.9
Bank Tabungan Negara 54.4 2.3 (40.1) (39.6) (30.1) 47.3 20.2 (41.8) (43.5) (28.7)
Bank Jabar Banten 59.3 (11.7) (54.3) (25.8) 37.6 13.1 (0.6) (59.8) (32.5) 43.6
Bank Jatim (41.3) 40.3 11.5 (18.0) 80.0 (27.1) 4.4 9.8 (20.9) 36.9
Bank Bukopin (10.2) 2.6 (4.8) (40.8) (47.5) (8.1) 9.7 (2.9) (31.5) (74.7)
Telco-related (6) (21.2) 10.4 (0.8) (3.4) 12.7 (30.0) 36.1 (69.9) 48.8 3.2
Telekomunikasi Indonesia (19.9) 9.1 2.5 (3.1) 40.2 10.5 7.6 3.1 2.6 1.4
Sarana Menara Nusanatara 30.6 35.2 28.3 59.9 19.0 (40.6) 159.3 (20.5) (233.2) na
XL Axiata (23.0) 8.5 (53.3) (77.5) (32.6) (79.7) 5.5 (342.7) (269.9) (91.2)
Indosat (103.0) 5.9 (0.6) 50.7 na 909.7 (1,225.2) 1,094.6 (86.3) (34.6)
Tiphone Mobile Indonesia 47.8 37.6 39.9 23.3 3.3 40.1 17.6 18.8 16.9 (29.5)
Erajaya Swasembada (25.0) 18.7 (0.7) (14.2) (39.5) 8.5 17.9 (39.2) (36.3) (71.3)
Cement (4) 18.8 11.0 (3.8) (12.2) (6.6) 16.8 13.1 3.2 (1.1) (2.8)
Semen Indonesia 1.9 2.5 10.4 (9.2) (4.3) 0.4 5.4 12.6 (4.2) 0.9
Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa (8.9) (8.4) (8.8) (2.4) 10.3 0.6 (1.5) 8.3 1.6 10.9
Holcim Indonesia 6.4 6.6 (23.4) (29.9) (51.0) (19.5) 75.7 (55.7) (5.5) (72.9)
Semen Baturaja 10.8 45.3 (5.6) 4.2 (10.7) 45.6 58.9 (36.3) 21.4 (1.8) Source: Companies, Bahana estimates *USD reporting
1 April 2015
Bahana Securities – Equity Research – Spotlight
2014
Finance Asia's
Best
Equity House
Asiamoney's
2013
Best Domestic
Equity House
Alpha
Southeast Asia
2014 Best
Research Call
FMCG Sector
Exhibit 19. The Ugly: Breakdown by market cap
Operating profit y-y growth (%) Net profit y-y growth (%)
4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14
Automotive (3) 18.4 26.7 17.8 0.3 (7.1) 10.5 21.7 2.1 (3.2) (18.3)
Astra International 32.8 30.1 24.8 3.9 (10.4) 25.3 25.3 12.8 0.7 (21.2) Indomobil Sukses International
(109.9) (0.8) (38.8) (99.5) (400.4) (120.6) (26.5) (111.5) (215.6) (190.9)
Gajah Tunggal (53.8) 1.5 (30.2) (19.0) 41.1 (123.9) (3.7) (193.1) (98.7) (153.0)
Plantations (7) 67.4 108.9 158.4 56.1 (28.3) 40.2 110.6 136.9 118.5 (29.8)
Astra Agro Lestari 34.3 101.4 102.0 41.9 (35.6) 20.6 120.2 62.0 165.4 (30.3)
London Sumatra Indonesia 72.7 212.9 239.4 42.7 (38.6) 102.7 142.9 216.3 (13.5) (33.2)
Salim Ivomas Pratama 125.3 115.6 462.8 17.8 0.8 88.3 93.4 3,693.3 (5.6) (19.2)
BW Plantation 163.8 97.9 13.8 (14.6) na 89.0 132.1 16.1 (17.4) na
Austindo Nusantara Jaya 41.5 0.9 na 150.3 (82.0) 27.9 23.3 na 176.7 (80.9)
Sampoerna Agro 17.5 334.7 774.4 855.1 (57.6) (13.5) 141.0 2,490.2 3,057.0 (66.7)
Tunas Baru Lampung 148.2 26.3 64.7 148.0 27.5 (54.3) 69.4 84.5 338.1 (775.6)
Oil-related (4) 24.8 18.8 39.5 10.3 (17.5) 0.4 16.5 16.9 27.5 (30.5)
Perusahaan Gas Negara* (3.2) (3.7) 32.5 14.2 (12.1) (1.4) 14.1 17.7 33.1 (36.5)
AKR Corporindo (2.6) 24.0 34.7 37.6 17.9 (65.4) 19.5 1.6 16.7 301.1
Medco Energi* 33.8 (8.3) (23.0) (53.6) (65.9) (137.4) 102.6 67.6 (82.9) (75.1)
Wintermar Offshore Marines* 76.1 48.1 18.1 (22.0) (40.2) 85.5 97.3 11.2 (18.4) (54.9)
Coal-related (6) (28.1) 22.5 25.7 (33.0) (2.2) 5.1 5.2 189.7 (43.1) (64.8)
United Tractors 24.0 23.5 42.8 11.3 28.7 9.4 22.8 48.0 39.4 (58.9)
Adaro Energy* (3.5) 20.2 (22.5) (35.6) (63.7) 54.5 53.3 (37.1) (16.0) (192.7)
Bukit Asam (4.8) (13.8) 75.6 156.3 (34.4) (17.3) (7.2) 66.4 14.0 (25.4)
Indo Tambangraya Megah* (20.5) (7.1) 16.4 (46.1) (48.1) (11.0) (8.7) 24.3 (54.0) (30.6)
Harum Energy* (60.0) 3.1 (45.5) (97.8) na 6.9 31.3 (37.6) (91.5) na ! Bumi Resources* (170.8) (2.9) 26.8 (152.1) na 1.3 45.9 (55.9) 57.2 na !
Poultry (3) 68.0 7.4 (6.7) (62.3) (51.0) (53.6) 4.8 (26.7) (60.8) (143.9)
Charoen Pokphand Indonesia 168.4 6.4 (8.9) (52.4) (64.0) 47.0 3.4 (27.4) (31.5) (89.5)
Japfa Comfeed Indonesia (32.7) 9.6 7.4 (65.6) 103.7 (356.1)))
8.7 (10.3) (97.9) (102.8)
Malindo Feedmill (18.8) 8.2 (44.2) na na (102.9) 7.5 (70.5) na na Source: Companies, Bahana estimates *USD reporting
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ext 3614
Hanna [email protected]
Sales Traderext 2525
Adriana [email protected] Executive
ext 2541
Sales Traderext 2554
Research Associateext 3693
Robin [email protected] Analyst
Propertyext 3620
Agustinus Reza [email protected]
Research AnalystTransportation
ext 3616
Wendy [email protected]
Research AnalystConsumer, Media
ext 3606
Research AnalystCement, Infratructure,Toll roads
ext 3605
Muhammad [email protected] Analyst
ext 3609
+62 31 535 2788 (Surabaya Branch)
Arandi [email protected]
Research AnalystCoal, Metals, Oil & Gas
ext 3619
Head of Equity Sales & TradingInstitutional Equity Sales
ext 2545
Made Ayu [email protected]
Research Executiveext 3607
Sanni Satrio Dwi [email protected] Associate
ext 3611
Andre Natala [email protected] Associate
ext 3601
Research AnalystPlantationsext 3621
Zefanya [email protected]
CAext 3612
Novianty Permata [email protected]
CAext 3618
Bagus Adi Yoga [email protected]
Research Associateext 3604
Head Office Surabaya Branch
Graha Niaga, 19th Floor Wisma BII, Ground Floor
Jl. Jend. Sudirman Kav. 58 Jl. Pemuda 60-70
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Indonesia Indonesia
Tel. 62 21 250 5081 Tel. 62 31 535 2788
Fax. 62 21 522 6049 http://www.bahana.co.id Fax. 62 31 546 1157
Disclaimer This publication is prepared by PT.Bahana Securities and reviewed by Daiwa Securities Group Inc. and/or its affiliates, and distributed outside Indonesia by Daiwa Securities Group Inc. and/or its affiliates, except to the extent expressly provided herein. Certain copies of this publication may be distributed inside and outside of Indonesia by PT. Bahana Securities in accordance with relevant laws and regulations. This publication and the contents hereof are intended for information purposes only, and may be subject to change without further notice. Any use, disclosure, distribution, dissemination, copying, printing or reliance on this publication for any other purpose without our prior consent or approval is strictly prohibited. Any review does not constitute a full verification of the publication and merely provides a minimum check. Neither Daiwa Securities Group Inc. nor any of its respective parent, holding, subsidiaries or affiliates, nor any of its respective directors, officers, servants and employees, represent nor warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein or as to the existence of other facts which might be significant, and will not accept any responsibility or liability whatsoever for any use of or reliance upon this publication or any of the contents hereof. Neither this publication, nor any content hereof, constitute, or are to be construed as, an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any of the securities or investments mentioned herein in any country or jurisdiction nor, unless expressly provided, any recommendation or investment opinion or advice. Any view, recommendation, opinion or advice expressed in this publication constitutes the views of the analyst(s) named herein and does not necessarily reflect those of Daiwa Securities Group Inc. and/or its affiliates nor any of its respective directors, officers, servants and employees except where the publication states otherwise. This research report is not to be relied upon by any person in making any investment decision or otherwise advising with respect to, or dealing in, the securities mentioned, as it does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs of any person.
Neither Daiwa Securities Group Inc. nor any of its affiliates is licensed to undertake any business within the Republic of Indonesia. Any display of any trade name or logo of the Daiwa Securities Group Inc. on this publication shall not be deemed to be an undertaking of any business within the Republic of Indonesia.
Daiwa Securities Group Inc., its subsidiaries or affiliates, or its or their respective directors, officers and employees from time to time may have trades as principals, or have positions in, or have other interests in the securities of the company under research including derivatives in respect of such securities or may have also performed investment banking and other services for the issuer of such securities. The following are additional disclosures.
Japan
Daiwa Securities Co. Ltd. and Daiwa Securities Group Inc.
Daiwa Securities Co. Ltd. is a subsidiary of Daiwa Securities Group Inc.
Investment Banking Relationship
Within the preceding 12 months, The subsidiaries and/or affiliates of Daiwa Securities Group Inc. * has lead-managed public offerings and/or secondary offerings (excluding straight bonds) of the securities of the following companies: Modern Land (China) Co. Ltd (1107 HK econtext Asia Ltd (1390 HK); Lotte Shopping Co (023530 KS); Rexlot Holdings Ltd (555 HK); Neo Solar Power Corp (3576 TT); Accordia Golf Trust (AGT SP); Hua Hong Semiconductor Ltd (1347 HK).
*Subsidiaries of Daiwa Securities Group Inc. for the purposes of this section shall mean any one or more of:
• Daiwa Capital Markets Hong Kong Limited (大和資本市場香港有限公司)
• Daiwa Capital Markets Singapore Limited
• Daiwa Capital Markets Australia Limited
• Daiwa Capital Markets India Private Limited
• Daiwa-Cathay Capital Markets Co., Ltd.
• Daiwa Securities Capital Markets Korea Co., Ltd
Disclosure of Interest of Bahana Securities
Investment Banking Relationship
Within the preceding 12 months, Bahana Securities has lead-managed public offerings and/or secondary offerings (excluding straight bonds) of the securities of the following companies: PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia (Persero) Tbk (TLKM IJ); Garuda Indonesia (Persero) (GIAA IJ); Wijaya Karya Beton Tbk PT (WTON IJ); J Resources Asia Pasific Tbk PT (PSAB IJ)
Hong Kong
This research is distributed in Hong Kong by Daiwa Capital Markets Hong Kong Limited (大和資本市場香港有限公司) (“DHK”) which is regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission. Recipients of this research in Hong Kong may contact DHK in respect of any matter arising from or in connection with this research.
Ownership of Securities
For “Ownership of Securities” information, please visit BlueMatrix disclosure Link at https://daiwa3.bluematrix.com/sellside/Disclosures.action.
Investment Banking Relationship
For “Investment Banking Relationship”, please visit BlueMatrix disclosure Link at https://daiwa3.bluematrix.com/sellside/Disclosures.action.
Relevant Relationship (DHK)
DHK may from time to time have an individual employed by or associated with it serves as an officer of any of the companies under its research coverage.
DHK market making
DHK may from time to time make a market in the securities covered by this research.
Singapore
This research is distributed in Singapore by Daiwa Capital Markets Singapore Limited and it may only be distributed in Singapore to accredited investors, expert investors and institutional investors as defined in the Financial Advisers Regulations and the Securities and Futures Act (Chapter 289), as amended from time to time. By virtue of distribution to these category of investors, Daiwa Capital Markets Singapore Limited and its representatives are not required to comply with Section 36 of the Financial Advisers Act (Chapter 110) (Section 36 relates to d isclosure of Daiwa Capital Markets Singapore Limited’s interest and/or its representative’s interest in securities). Recipients of this research in Singapore may contact Daiwa Capital Markets Singapore Limited in respect of any matter arising from or in connection with the research.
Australia
This research is distributed in Australia by Daiwa Capital Markets Stockbroking Limited and it may only be distributed in Australia to wholesale investors within the meaning of the Corporations Act. Recipients of this research in Australia may contact Daiwa Capital Markets Stockbroking Limited in respect of any matter arising from or in connection with the research.
Ownership of Securities
For “Ownership of Securities” information, please visit BlueMatrix disclosure Link at https://daiwa3.bluematrix.com/sellside/Disclosures.action.
India
This research is distributed by Daiwa Capital Markets India Private Limited (DAIWA) which is an intermediary registered with Securities & Exchange Board of India. This report is not to be considered as an offer or solicitation for any dealings in securities. While the information in this report has been compiled by DAIWA in good faith from sources believed to be reliable, no representation or warranty, express of implied, is made or given as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. DAIWA its officers, employees, representatives and agents accept no liability whatsoever for any loss or damage whether direct, indirect, consequential or otherwise howsoever arising (whether in negligence or otherwise) out of or in connection with or from any use of or reliance
on the contents of and/or omissions from this document. Consequently DAIWA expressly disclaims any and all liability for, or based on or relating to any such information contained in or errors in or omissions in this report. Accordingly, you are recommended to seek your own legal, tax or other advice and should rely solely on your own judgment, review and analysis, in evaluating the information in this document. The data contained in this document is subject to change without any prior notice DAIWA reserves its right to modify this report as maybe required from time to time. DAIWA is committed to providing independent recommendations to its Clients and would be happy to provide any information in response to any query from its Clients. This report is strictly confidential and is being furnished to you solely for your information. The information contained in this document should not be reproduced (in whole or in part) or redistributed in any form to any other person. We and our group companies, affiliates, officers, directors and employees may from time to time, have long or short positions, in and buy sell the securities thereof, of company(ies) mentioned herein or be engaged in any other transactions involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as advisor or have the potential conflict of interest with respect to any recommendation and related information or opinion. DAIWA prohibits its analyst and their family members from maintaining a financial interest in the securities or derivatives of any companies that the analyst cover. This report is not intended or directed for distribution to ,or use by any person, citizen or entity which is resident or located in any state or country or jurisdiction where such publication, distribution or use would be contrary to any statutory legislation, or regulation which would require DAIWA and its affiliates/ group companies to any registration or licensing requirements. The views expressed in the report accurately reflect the analyst’s personal views about the securities and issuers that are subject of the Report, and that no part of the analyst’s compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly, related to the recommendations or views expressed in the Report. This report does not recommend to US recipients the use of Daiwa Capital Markets India Private Limited or any of its non – US affiliates to effect trades in any securities and is not supplied with any understanding that US recipients will direct commission business to Daiwa Capital Markets India Private Limited.
Taiwan
This research is distributed in Taiwan by Daiwa-Cathay Capital Markets Co., Ltd and it may only be distributed in Taiwan to institutional investors or specific investors who have signed recommendation contracts with Daiwa-Cathay Capital Markets Co., Ltd in accordance with the Operational Regulations Governing Securities Firms Recommending Trades in Securities to Customers. Recipients of this research in Taiwan may contact Daiwa-Cathay Capital Markets Co., Ltd in respect of any matter arising from or in connection with the research.
Philippines
This research is distributed in the Philippines by DBP-Daiwa Capital Markets Philippines, Inc. which is regulated by the Philippines Securities and Exchange
Commission and the Philippines Stock Exchange, Inc. Recipients of this research in the Philippines may contact DBP-Daiwa Capital Markets Philippines, Inc.
in respect of any matter arising from or in connection with the research. DBP-Daiwa Capital Markets Philippines, Inc. recommends that investors
independently assess, with a professional advisor, the specific financial risks as well as the legal, regulatory, tax, accounting, and other consequences of a
proposed transaction. DBP-Daiwa Capital Markets Philippines, Inc. may have positions or may be materially interested in the securities in any of the markets
mentioned in the publication or may have performed other services for the issuers of such securities.
For relevant securities and trading rules please visit SEC and PSE Link at http://www.sec.gov.ph/irr/AmendedIRRfinalversion.pdf and
http://www.pse.com.ph/ respectively.
United Kingdom
This research report is produced by Daiwa Capital Markets Europe Limited and/or its affiliates and is distributed in the European Union, Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway and Switzerland. Daiwa Capital Markets Europe Limited is authorised and regulated by The Financial Conduct Authority (“FCA”) and is a member of the London Stock Exchange, Eurex and NYSE Liffe. Daiwa Capital Markets Europe Limited and/or its affiliates may, from time to time, to the extent permitted by law, participate or invest in other financing transactions with the issuers of the securities referred to herein (the “Securities”), perform services for or solicit business from such issuers, and/or have a position or effect transactions in the Securities or options thereof and/or may have acted as an underwriter during the past twelve months for the issuer of such securities. In addition, employees of Daiwa Capital Markets Europe Limited and/or its affiliates may have positions and effect transactions in such securities or options and may serve as Directors of such issuers. Daiwa Capital Markets Europe Limited may, to the extent permitted by applicable UK law and other applicable law or regulation, effect transactions in the Securities before this material is published to recipients.
This publication is intended for investors who are not Retail Clients in the United Kingdom within the meaning of the Rules of the FCA and should not therefore be distributed to such Retail Clients in the United Kingdom. Should you enter into investment business with Daiwa Capital Markets Europe’s affiliates outside the United Kingdom, we are obliged to advise that the protection afforded by the United Kingdom regulatory system may not apply; in particular, the benefits of the Financial Services Compensation Scheme may not be available.
Daiwa Capital Markets Europe Limited has in place organisational arrangements for the prevention and avoidance of conflicts of interest. Our conflict management policy is available at http://www.uk.daiwacm.com/about-us/corporate-governance-regulatory. Regulatory disclosures of investment banking relationships are available at https://daiwa3.bluematrix.com/sellside/Disclosures.action.
Germany
This document is distributed in Germany by Daiwa Capital Markets Europe Limited, Niederlassung Frankfurt which is regulated by BaFin (Bundesanstalt fuer Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht) for the conduct of business in Germany.
Bahrain
This research material is distributed by Daiwa Capital Markets Europe Limited, Bahrain Branch, regulated by The Central Bank of Bahrain and holds Investment Business Firm – Category 2 license and having its official place of business at the Bahrain World Trade Centre, South Tower, 7th floor, P.O. Box 30069, Manama, Kingdom of Bahrain. Tel No. +973 17534452 Fax No. +973 535113
This material is provided as a reference for making investment decisions and is not intended to be a solicitation for investment. Investment decisions should be made at your own discretion and risk. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to and no reliance should be placed on the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information and opinions contained in this document, Content herein is based on information available at the time the research material was prepared and may be amended or otherwise changed in the future without notice. All information is intended for the private use of the person to whom it is provided without any liability whatsoever on the part of Daiwa Capital Markets Europe Limited, Bahrain Branch, any associated company or the employees thereof. If you are in doubt about the suitability of the product or the research material itself, please consult your own financial adviser. Daiwa Capital Markets Europe Limited, Bahrain Branch retains all rights related to the content of this material, which may not be redistributed or otherwise transmitted without prior consent.
United States
This report is distributed in the U.S. by Daiwa Capital Markets America Inc. (DCMA). It may not be accurate or complete and should not be relied upon
as such. It reflects the preparer’s views at the time of its preparation, but may not reflect events occurring after its preparation; nor does it reflect
PT.Bahana Securities’ or DCMA’s views at any time. Neither PT.Bahana Securities, DCMA nor the preparer has any obligation to update this report
or to continue to prepare research on this subject. This report is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of any offer to buy securities. Unless this report
says otherwise, any recommendation it makes is risky and appropriate only for sophisticated speculative investors able to incur significant losses.
Readers should consult their financial advisors to determine whether any such recommendation is consistent with their own investment objectives,
financial situation and needs. This report does not recommend to U.S. recipients the use of any of PT.Bahana Securities’ or DCMA’s non-U.S. affiliates to effect trades in any security and is not supplied with any understanding that U.S. recipients of this report will direct commission business to
such non-U.S. entities. Unless applicable law permits otherwise, non-U.S. customers wishing to effect a transaction in any securities referenced in this
material should contact a Daiwa entity in their local jurisdiction. Most countries throughout the world have their own laws regulating the types of
securities and other investment products which may be offered to their residents, as well as a process for doing so. As a result, the securities
discussed in this report may not be eligible for sales in some jurisdictions. Customers wishing to obtain further information about this report should
contact DCMA: Daiwa Capital Markets America Inc., Financial Square, 32 Old Slip, New York, New York 10005 (telephone 212-612-7000).
Ownership of Securities
For “Ownership of Securities” information please visit BlueMatrix disclosure Link at https://daiwa3.bluematrix.com/sellside/Disclosures.action .
Investment Banking Relationships
For “Investment Banking Relationships” please visit BlueMatrix disclosure link at https://daiwa3.bluematrix.com/sellside/Disclosures.action .
DCMA Market Making
For “DCMA Market Making” please visit BlueMatrix disclosure link at https://daiwa3.bluematrix.com/sellside/Disclosures.action .
Research Analyst Conflicts
For updates on “Research Analyst Conflicts” please visit BlueMatrix disclosure link at https://daiwa3.bluematrix.com/sellside/Disclosures.action. The
principal research analysts who prepared this report have no financial interest in securities of the issuers covered in the report, are not (nor are any members of their household) an officer, director or advisory board member of the issuer(s) covered in the report, and are not aware of any material
relevant conflict of interest involving the analyst or DCMA, and did not receive any compensation from the issuer during the past 12 months except as
noted: no exceptions.
Research Analyst Certification
For updates on “Research Analyst Certification” and “Rating System” please visit BlueMatrix disclosure link at
https://daiwa3.bluematrix.com/sellside/Disclosures.action . The views about any and all of the subject securities and issuers expressed in this
Research Report accurately reflect the personal views of the research analyst(s) primarily responsible for this report (or the views of the firm
producing the report if no individual analysts[s] is named on the report); and no part of the compensation of such analyst(s) (or no part of the compensation of the firm if no individual analyst[s)] is named on the report) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific
recommendations or views contained in this Research Report.
For stocks and sectors in Indonesia covered by Bahana Securities, the following rating system is in effect:
Stock ratings are based on absolute upside or downside, which is the difference between the target price and the current market price. Unless otherwise specified, these ratings are set with a 12-month horizon. It is possible that future price volatility may cause a temporary mismatch between upside/downside for a stock based on the market price and the formal rating. "Buy": the price of the security is expected to increase by 10% or more. "Hold": the price of the security is expected to range from an increase of less than 10% to a decline of less than 5%. "Reduce": the price of the security is expected to decline by 5% or more.
Sector ratings are based on fundamentals for the sector as a whole. Hence, a sector may be rated “Overweight” even though its constituent stocks are all rated “Reduce”; and a sector may be rated “Underweight” even though its constituent stocks are all rated “Buy”. “Overweight”: positive fundamentals for the sector. “Neutral”: neither positive nor negative fundamentals for the sector. “Underweight”: negative fundamentals for the sector.
Ownership of Securities For “Ownership of Securities” information, please visit BlueMatrix disclosure Link at https://daiwa3.bluematrix.com/sellside/Disclosures.action .
Investment Banking Relationships For “Investment Banking Relationship”, please visit BlueMatrix disclosure Link at https://daiwa3.bluematrix.com/sellside/Disclosures.action . Relevant Relationships (Bahana Securities) Bahana Securities may from time to time have an individual employed by or associated with it serves as an officer of any of the companies under its research coverage.
Bahana Securities market making Bahana Securities may from time to time make a market in securities covered by this research.
Additional information may be available upon request.
Japan - additional notification items pursuant to Article 37 of the Financial Instruments and Exchange Law
(This Notification is only applicable where report is distributed by Daiwa Securities Co. Ltd.)
If you decide to enter into a business arrangement with us based on the information described in materials presented along with this document, we ask you to pay close attention to the following items.
In addition to the purchase price of a financial instrument, we will collect a trading commission* for each transaction as agreed beforehand with you. Since
commissions may be included in the purchase price or may not be charged for certain transactions, we recommend that you confirm the commission for
each transaction.
In some cases, we may also charge a maximum of ¥ 2 million (including tax) per year as a standing proxy fee for our deposit of your securities, if you are
a non-resident of Japan. For derivative and margin transactions etc., we may require collateral or margin requirements in accordance with an agreement made beforehand with
you. Ordinarily in such cases, the amount of the transaction will be in excess of the required collateral or margin requirements.
There is a risk that you will incur losses on your transactions due to changes in the market price of financial instruments based on fluctuations in interest
rates, exchange rates, stock prices, real estate prices, commodity prices, and others. In addition, depending on the content of the transaction, the loss
could exceed the amount of the collateral or margin requirements.
There may be a difference between bid price etc. and ask price etc. of OTC derivatives handled by us.
Before engaging in any trading, please thoroughly confirm accounting and tax treatments regarding your trading in financial instruments with such experts
as certified public accountants.
*The amount of the trading commission cannot be stated here in advance because it will be determined between our company and you based on current market conditions and the content of each transaction etc.
When making an actual transaction, please be sure to carefully read the materials presented to you prior to the execution of agreement, and to take responsibility for your own decisions regarding the signing of the agreement with us.
Corporate Name: Daiwa Securities Co. Ltd.
Financial instruments firm: chief of Kanto Local Finance Bureau (Kin-sho) No.108
Memberships: Japan Securities Dealers Association, Financial Futures Association of Japan
Japan Securities Investment Advisers Association
Type II Financial Instruments Firms Association
