Enough Water for Enough food?Trends and Prospects in Water Management for AgricultureDavid MoldenIWMI

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1500

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Food

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Sub-Saharan Africa

Threshold for national food security

Developed countries

World

Asia

One liter of water produces one calorie on averageFo

od S

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Will there be enough water?More people – 6.5 to 9 billion people by 2050

More calories & more meat, fish, milk

More food production – need to double grain production by 2050

More water for food – if practices don’t change, water needs for agriculture will double

Something has to change

Water Scarcity and Climate Change

Some areas wetter, some areas drier

Investing in Irrigation

Irrigation

Food price index

World Bank lending for irrigation

2.5

2.0

1.5

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0.5

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July 2008

Jan2009

Living Planet indexFreshwater

Irrigation in SSA

Growth in Yields

United States

China

Latin America

Sub-Saharan Africa

IPCC – yields in SSA will decline by 50% because of climate change

It is possible to more than double yields in SSA in spite of climate change.

Key Trends in SSA

Rapid Water Development • Hydropower/energy• Rapid urban growth• The role of China• “Land and Water Grabs”• Private sector – contract farming, markets• Transboundary water concerns• Growth of informal water economies

Informal Water Economies

OpportunitiesOlivia Molden

Water Management

Major Pathways to Meet Future Food & Water Demands

1. Improve water productivity (more food/water)– Irrigation systems– Rainfed systems

2. Expand irrigated & rainfed agriculture3. Promote trade from highly productive to less

productive regions4. Manage demand, consume and waste less

Around 70% of the world’s under-nourished live in rural areas where non-agricultural livelihood options are limited.

Get water to poor people, use it better

Improve and Safeguard Water Access

Access to Technologies

Irrigation potential

developed:

Egypt, Morocco,

Somalia, South Africa > 75%

Botswana, Sudan,

Zimbabwe, Madagascar, Mali, Malawi,

Uganda 50-75%

Rest < 50%

% Irrigated Land

INDIA: ~50

SSA: 5

Upgrade Water Management in Rainfed Landscapes

Rainfed land has the highest potential for poverty reduction and water productivity gains.

Upgrade Rainfed Agriculture with a range of water management options – pumps, water harvesting, soil moisture, supplemental irrigation, irrigation.

Making it happen

• Seek opportunities:– AWM falls between institutional cracks– Failure to focus on women

• Focus on agriculture, water access, drinking water & hydropower

• Its not just about technologies, but about markets, institutions, capacity

Thank you