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Inaugural n Plenary Day I May 25th Keynote talk
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International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development
Kathmandu, Nepal
Can mountains deliver enough water for the future?Climate change, and the supply and demand of a scarce resource for food, energy and environmental security
David Molden
Importance of Mountain Regions
Mountains occupy 24% of global land surface; home to 12% population; About 10% of world’s population directly depend on the mountains for their livelihoods; 40% indirectly depend on water, hydroelectricity, timber, biodiversity and niche products, mineral resources, recreation, and flood control
• How much more water is needed for food, drinking, energy and environment?
How much water do you consume?
Drinking water
Household Use
1 kg rice
1 kg beef
Daily Diet
– 2 to 5 liters per day– 20 to 2,000 liters per day– 500 to 3,000 liters– 5,000 to 20,000 liters– 2,000 to 5,000 liters per day
depending on diets and how food is produced
Limits – Reached or Breached
Land degradation – limits productivityRiver basins closed –Yellow, Indus, Amu Darya
……… no additional water leftGroundwater overdraft – in breadbaskets and rice
bowls Fisheries – ocean and freshwater at a limit,
aquaculture will become more prevalentLivestock – limit on extent of grazing land, more will
come based on feed
Overexploitation, -but also opportunities for use
Groundwater
Global map of groundwater depletion, where 1000 on the legend is equal to one cubic kilometer of depletion per year. Source: Wada, Y., van Beek, L.P.H., van Kempen, C.M., Reckman, J.W.T.M., Vasak, S. and Bierkens, M.F.P. (2010) Global depletion of groundwater resources. Geophysical Research Letters, VOL. 37, L20402, doi:10.1029/2010GL044571
Breadbasket Areas dependent on GW
Water Scarcity 2000
1/3 of the world’s population live in basins that have to deal with water scarcity
Other Water Pressures
Population & Diet – food grain production projected to increase by over 70% by 2050
Urbanization - Cities are projected to use 150% more water in 2025, encroach on ag land
Agriculture – Increased water use and land expansion behind production increases
Energy – Hydropower and biofuels compete for water and land
Climate Change – Shifting patterns of water availability
Drivers of Land & Water Use
Based on IWMI WaterSim analysis for the CA
Today
Without Water Productivity Gains,
Crop ET doubles by 2050
2050
More people – 6.5 to 9 billion people by 2050More calories & more meat, fish, milkMore food production –grain productionincrease 70 to 100% by 2050
Water Use – Today and 2050
No Water Productivity
Gains
Source: IWMI
1505
1692
164
2860
3215
312
Agriculture ET in 2000 and 2050no water productivity gains
South Asia
East Asia Central Asia
Need to produce more food, but minimize extra water use –Change is needed
Source: IWMI
Installed and potential hydropower potential in the Himalayan region
Country Potential (MW)
Installed (MW) % contribution to total supply
Bhutan 23,760 1,465 100
China 272,000 NA 16.4
India 114,398 24,530 17.4
Nepal 42,630 658 92
Pakistan 46,000 6,608 33.4
Water Use – Today and 2050
Based on WaterSim analysis for the CA by IWMI
Today
CA Scenario
No Water Productivity
Gains
CA Scenario: Policies for productivity gains, upgrading rainfed, revitalized irrigation, trade; reducing waste can
further reduce water needs
2050
Conclusion
• The demand is growing, yet water is already scarce in the region.
• There is scope for management improvement.
With Climate Change,Can Mountains Deliver Enough Water?
• Changes in glaciers and snow
• More natural disasters• Impact on water, food,
and energy• Species migration &
biodiversity loss• Changes in vegetation
cover• Women and children at
front line
Impacts of Climate Change
How Much Water Will be Available?
www.icimod.org
1.2 Billion People Downstream
Liu and Chen, 2000
Elevation-temperature trend relationship (Tibetan Plateau)
Impact of Climate Change - Imja Glacier, Nepal
2006 photograph of Imja
glacier(Photo: Giovanni Kappenberger
courtesy of Alton C Byers)
1956 photograph of Imja glacier (Photo: Fritz
Muller; courtesy of Jack Ives)
Glaciers are shrinkingaccording to many studies
Note: Brackets include name of glacier or region with associated number/area (km2) of glaciers studied if more than one single glacier; U=Uttarakhand, HP=Himachal Pradesh
Source: Miller et al. (2011)
56 GLOF events in HKH region:Bhutan 4, China 29, Nepal 14, Pakistan 9, 10 transboundary
Importance of melt water
Amu Darya River Source Walter Immerzeel
Black Carbon
• Brick kilns
• Cook-stoves
• Open burning
• Diesel vehicles
• Forest fires
Black Carbon MitigationMultiple Benefits
Multiple Benefits of Mitigation:• Less temperature rise• Reduced glacial and snow melt• Health benefits
Nov to AprilSkies
Mountains and Water Supply
• Glaciers are retreating, with some exceptions, like Karakorum.
• Flow depends on glacier, snow and permafrost melt; but rain is often dominant.
• Dry areas and mountains areas close to source are more vulnerable to glacier melt.
• Changes in timing and variability – a major concern – floods and droughts
Flood events in the HKH
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
Num
ber o
f eve
nts
Source: EMDAT OFDA CRED Database
Mountain Solutions for Water
1. Reduce vulnerabilities to floods and droughts
• Increase monitoring and early warning
• Increased attention to glacial lakes
• Invest in water storage – including conservation of natural storage
• Work across borders to share information and experience
2. Find solutions in the water-food-energy nexus
• Hydropower-food-livelihoods-environment: increase synergies, deal with tradeoffs
• Clean energy to reduce black carbon and glacier melt
3. Improved Landscape Management
• Watershed management
• Address shifting cultivation
• Local and regional (US/DS) payoffs
Source: Robert Yoder, IWMI
Community Management
4. Value services provided by mountain people and ecosystems
• Compensate for them• Provide economic incentives to
communities• Work across borders
5. Reduce scientific uncertainties
• About the cryosphere• Indigenous and local knowledge• Address data gaps
Himalayas: A blank spot in
IPCC AR4
6. Put mountains on the global agenda
• Mountains are a global resource for food, energy, biodiversity
• Global and regional activities put mountains and mountain people under pressure
• National, regional and global attention must go to mountains
Thank you