Upload
others
View
1
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Alicia García-Herrero
Hong Kong, April 2013
Energy trends: The emerging world at the centre of supply and demand
2
Energy trends: The emerging world at the centre of supply and demand
Key take-aways
• Emerging economies will continue to drive global growth with center of gravity in Emerging Asia
• Rapid economic growth and higher purchasing power behind substantial increase in energy demand in the emerging world
• Efficiency gains will just soften -but not curb – huge demand pressure.
• Energy mix may change but demand will continue to be overwhelming for oil and gas
• Oil and gas production and, especially reserves, concentrated in emerging economies, which will increase institutional and business uncertainties
• Given supply and demand developments, energy security will become much more relevant in the Middle East –China sphere
3
Energy trends: The emerging world at the centre of supply and demand
Summary
Section 1
The changing map of world growth: BBVA EAGLEs Section 2
Consumption trends in energy markets
Section 3
Energy dependency and supply factors
REFER TO IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ON PAGE 35 OF THIS REPORT
4
Energy trends: The emerging world at the centre of supply and demand
The changing map of world growth: BBVA EAGLEs
New economic activity focused on the Pacific connection: Asia and America
Incremental GDP between 2012 and 2022 by region (%) Source: BBVA Research and IMF/WEO
10.9
Latin America
Africa Australia
New Zealand
North America
Asia (ex.Japan)
Japan
7.5
6.8
4.9
Eastern Europe
56.4 1.7
1.0
6.4
Western Europe
Middle East
4.5
+
5
Energy trends: The emerging world at the centre of supply and demand
The changing map of world growth: BBVA EAGLEs
Summary: the emerging world to lead growth in the next decade
Contribution to GDP world growth (percentage points) (over PPP-adjusted 2012 USD) Source: BBVA Research and IMF/WEO
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
80s 90s 00s pre-crisis Global crisis 2012-2022
RoW G6 US Nest EAGLEs WORLD
6
Energy trends: The emerging world at the centre of supply and demand
The changing map of world growth: BBVA EAGLEs
Vulnerabilities have also decreased substantially during the last decade
Public and private debt-to-GDP ratios (2012) Source: BBVA Research
Sovereign rating* for EAGLEs and Nest countries (end of period) (2000-2012) *Numerical average for Fitch, S&P and Moody’s ratings, rounded-up to zero decimals Source: BBVA Research and rating agencies
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Public debt Private debt:Households
Private debt:Non-final
corporations
External debt
G7 EAGLEs&Nest
DCC
CCC-CCC
CCC+B-B
B+BB-BB
BB+BBB-BBB
BBB+A-A
A+AA-AA
AA+AAA
Tai
wan
Chile
Chin
aK
ore
aPola
nd
Mal
aysi
aS.
Afr
ica
Thai
land
Mex
ico
Per
uBra
zil
Russ
iaIn
dia
Colo
mbia
Indones
iaPhili
ppin
esTurk
eyBan
gla
des
hN
iger
iaV
ietn
amEgyp
tU
krai
ne
Pak
ista
nA
rgen
tina
Investment grade
Prime grade
7
Energy trends: The emerging world at the centre of supply and demand
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
Can
ada
UK
US
Chile
Japan
Ger
man
yFr
ance
Tai
wan
Pola
nd
Mal
aysi
aS.
Afr
ica
Kore
aG
CC
Ital
yC
olo
mbia
Per
uBra
zil
Thai
land
Turk
eyM
exic
oC
hin
aA
rgen
tina
Indones
iaEgyp
tR
uss
iaV
ietn
amIn
dia
Ban
gla
des
hPhili
ppin
esPak
ista
nN
iger
iaV
enez
uel
a
The changing map of world growth: BBVA EAGLEs
However, business conditions still have room to improve in some countries Institutional indicator for advanced and emerging economies Source: BBVA Research
G7 average
Emerging economies
average
8
Energy trends: The emerging world at the centre of supply and demand
Summary
Section 1
The changing map of world growth: BBVA EAGLEs
Section 2
Consumption trends in energy markets Section 3
Energy dependency and supply factors
9
Energy trends: The emerging world at the centre of supply and demand
Consumption trends in energy markets
EAGLEs account at present for 30% of oil and gas world demand
Energy consumption in EAGLEs and G7 economies (% of world total) (1965-2011) Source: BBVA Research and BP
Oil Natural gas
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
19
65
19
68
19
71
19
74
19
77
19
80
19
83
19
86
19
89
19
92
19
95
19
98
20
01
20
04
20
07
20
10
G7 EAGLEs RoW
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
19
65
19
68
19
71
19
74
19
77
19
80
19
83
19
86
19
89
19
92
19
95
19
98
20
01
20
04
20
07
20
10
G7 EAGLEs RoW
10
Energy trends: The emerging world at the centre of supply and demand
Consumption trends in energy markets
China has become a world key consumer in the oil market, while gas demand is also growing fast now
Energy consumption in China and the US (% of world total) (1965-2011) Source: BBVA Research and BP
Oil Natural gas
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
19
65
19
68
19
71
19
74
19
77
19
80
19
83
19
86
19
89
19
92
19
95
19
98
20
01
20
04
20
07
20
10
US China
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
19
65
19
68
19
71
19
74
19
77
19
80
19
83
19
86
19
89
19
92
19
95
19
98
20
01
20
04
20
07
20
10
US China
11
Energy trends: The emerging world at the centre of supply and demand
Consumption trends in energy markets
Oil and gas demand up by 40-60% in the EAGLEs since 2000 while flat or declining in the G7
Energy consumption in EAGLEs and G7 economies (index 100=2000) (1965-2011) Source: BBVA Research and BP
Oil Natural gas
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1965
1968
1971
1974
1977
1980
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
2004
2007
2010
G7 EAGLEs RoW
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
19
65
19
68
19
71
19
74
19
77
19
80
19
83
19
86
19
89
19
92
19
95
19
98
20
01
20
04
20
07
20
10
G7 EAGLEs RoW
12
Energy trends: The emerging world at the centre of supply and demand
Consumption trends in energy markets
China leads the process, but demand is increasing fast also in other EAGLEs
Energy consumption in the EAGLEs (index 100=2000) (1965-2011) Source: BBVA Research and BP
Oil Natural gas
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
1965
1968
1971
1974
1977
1980
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
2004
2007
2010
China India IndonesiaKorea Taiwan BrazilMexico Russia Turkey
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1965
1968
1971
1974
1977
1980
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
2004
2007
2010
China India IndonesiaKorea Taiwan BrazilMexico Russia Turkey
13
Energy trends: The emerging world at the centre of supply and demand
Consumption trends in energy markets
Energy trends linked to rapid growth in emerging economies but other key factors on the table
Rapid economic growth
Increasing energy demand
As emerging economies continue growing fast and converging to developed standards, pressure increases on natural resources and make
energy security more relevant
Increasing GDP per capita
Technological progress Resources availability New energy deposits
Energy intensity Use efficiency Relative prices Policy options
Environmental issues
Key factors to shape demand elasticity and impact the
energy mix
14
Energy trends: The emerging world at the centre of supply and demand
Consumption trends in energy markets
Higher purchasing power (middle classes) is a very relevant source of new energy demand
Middle classes in emerging economies and oil price (centered 5yMA) (1980-2020) Source: BBVA Research and Haver
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
Oil price in USD/barrel (lhs)
% of middle classes in EMs (rhs)
15
Energy trends: The emerging world at the centre of supply and demand
Consumption trends in energy markets
Boost in car fleet to increase energy demand for transport, but conditional on technology progress
World markets according to annual growth of the car fleet between 2010 and 2020 Source: BBVA Research
0% ≥8% 4% 2% 6%
16
Energy trends: The emerging world at the centre of supply and demand
Consumption trends in energy markets
No big differences between growth and energy maps in the following years: Asia leads
Contribution to energy consumption growth by region (percentage points) (2000-2030) Source: BBVA Research and BP
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2000-2010 2010-2020 2020-2030
Asia Pacific Africa Middle EastEurope & Eurasia S & C America North AmericaTotal
Efficiency gains and lower energy
intensity to soften demand pressure
17
Energy trends: The emerging world at the centre of supply and demand
Energy consumption by fuel (in % of total) (2011) Source: BBVA Research and BP
Consumption trends in energy markets
Regional energy mix: progressive substitution of coal in developing Asia
*oil, biofuels, gas-to-liquids and coal-to-liquids; **wind power, solar electricity and other renewables
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
NorthAmerica
S & CAmerica
Europe &Eurasia
MiddleEast
Africa Asia Pacific
Liquids* Natural Gas CoalNuclear Hydroelectricity Renewables**
Natural gas and renewables also
expected to gain share to the detriment of oil,
especially in more developed regions Coal
18
Energy trends: The emerging world at the centre of supply and demand
Summary
Section 1
The changing map of world growth: BBVA EAGLEs
Section 2
Consumption trends in energy markets
Section 3
Energy dependency and supply factors
19
Energy trends: The emerging world at the centre of supply and demand
Energy dependency and supply factors
G7 economies have kept a significant reliance on external energy
Energy net exports (% of energy use; unweighted average by group) (1971-2010) Source: BBVA Research and World Bank
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
G7 EAGLEs&Nest
20
Energy trends: The emerging world at the centre of supply and demand
Middle East33%
Russia12%
US9%
China5%Canada
4%
Mexico4%
Venezuela3%
Nigeria3%
Brazil3%
Norway3%
Kazakhstan2%
Angola2%
Algeria2%
RoW15% US
20%
Russia19%
Middle East16%
Canada5%
China3%
Norway3%
Algeria2%
Indonesia2%
Netherlands2%
Malaysia2%
Egypt2%
Turkmenistan2%
Uzbekistan2%
Mexico2%
India1% UK
1%
Australia1%
RoW15%
Energy dependency and supply factors
Most of the energy production remains in the hands of emerging economies
Oil
Production (% of world total) (2011) Source: BBVA Research and BP
Natural gas
21
Energy trends: The emerging world at the centre of supply and demand
-100-75-50-25
0255075
100125150175200225250
Colo
mbia
Nig
eria
Russ
iaIn
dones
iaC
anad
aM
exic
oEgyp
tS.
Afr
ica
Mal
aysi
aV
ietn
amA
rgen
tina
Per
uBra
zil
Chin
aBan
gla
des
hU
SPak
ista
nIn
dia
UK
Pola
nd
Thai
land
Phili
ppin
esFra
nce
Ger
man
yTurk
eyC
hile
Japan
Kore
aItal
y
Energy dependency and supply factors
However, the energy balance of EAGLEs and Nest is quite diverse
Energy net exports (% of energy use) (2010) Source: BBVA Research and World Bank
22
Energy trends: The emerging world at the centre of supply and demand
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
Japan United KingdomGermany FranceUnited States CanadaItaly
Energy dependency and supply factors
Canada is at present the only self-sufficient country among the G7
Energy net exports (% of energy use) (1971-2010) Source: BBVA Research and World Bank
23
Energy trends: The emerging world at the centre of supply and demand
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
19
71
19
74
19
77
19
80
19
83
19
86
19
89
19
92
19
95
19
98
20
01
20
04
20
07
20
10
IndiaIndonesiaKorea, Rep.BangladeshChina
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
19
71
19
74
19
77
19
80
19
83
19
86
19
89
19
92
19
95
19
98
20
01
20
04
20
07
20
10
Philippines ThailandVietnam MalaysiaPakistan
Energy dependency and supply factors
Korea is the most reliant Asian country on imports while Indonesia intensifies specialization
Energy net exports (% of energy use) (1971-2010) Source: BBVA Research and World Bank
24
Energy trends: The emerging world at the centre of supply and demand
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
19
71
19
74
19
77
19
80
19
83
19
86
19
89
19
92
19
95
19
98
20
01
20
04
20
07
20
10
ChileColombiaMexicoPeruArgentinaBrazil
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
19
71
19
74
19
77
19
80
19
83
19
86
19
89
19
92
19
95
19
98
20
01
20
04
20
07
20
10
Russian Federation
South Africa
Turkey
Egypt, Arab Rep.
Nigeria
Energy dependency and supply factors
Brazil and Argentina show opposite trends, whereas growth pushes up net imports in Turkey
Energy net exports (% of energy use) (1971-2010) Source: BBVA Research and World Bank
25
Energy trends: The emerging world at the centre of supply and demand
Energy dependency and supply factors
Oil and gas reserves are very concentrated, more than current production
Middle East48%
Venezuela18%
Canada10%
Russia5%
Libya3%
Nigeria2% US
2%
Kazakhstan2%
Brazil1%
China1%
Angola1%
Algeria1%
Mexico1%
RoW5%
Middle East38%
Russia21%
Turkmenistan12%
US4%
Venezuela3%
Nigeria2%
Algeria2%
Australia2%
China1%
Indonesia1%
Malaysia1%
Egypt1%
Norway1%
Canada1% Kazakhstan
1%
Uzbekistan1%
Libya1%
RoW6%
Oil
Proved reserves (% of world total) (2011) Source: BBVA Research and BP
Natural gas
26
Energy trends: The emerging world at the centre of supply and demand
Energy dependency and supply factors
Changes in the last 25 years dominated by the higher share of OPEC countries
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
19
80
19
82
19
84
19
86
19
88
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
G7EAGLEs&NestRoW
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
G7EAGLEs&NestRoW
Oil (thousand million barrels)
Proved reserves (physical units) (1980-2011) Source: BBVA Research and BP
Natural gas (trillion cubic meters)
27
Energy trends: The emerging world at the centre of supply and demand
Energy dependency and supply factors
North America leads reserves building among the G7 economies: oil in Canada and gas in the US
Proved reserves (% of world total) (1980-2011) Source: BBVA Research and BP
Oil Natural gas
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
19
80
19
82
19
84
19
86
19
88
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
US
Canada
United Kingdom
Italy
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
19
80
19
82
19
84
19
86
19
88
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
USCanadaUnited KingdomItalyGermany
28
Energy trends: The emerging world at the centre of supply and demand
Energy dependency and supply factors
Russia stands out as a price driver in both oil and gas markets, while Nigeria dominates in Africa
Proved reserves (% of world total) (1980-2011) Source: BBVA Research and BP
Oil Natural gas
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
19
80
19
83
19
86
19
89
19
92
19
95
19
98
20
01
20
04
20
07
20
10
Russian Federation
Egypt
Nigeria
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
19
80
19
83
19
86
19
89
19
92
19
95
19
98
20
01
20
04
20
07
20
10
Russian Federation
Egypt
Nigeria
29
Energy trends: The emerging world at the centre of supply and demand
Energy dependency and supply factors
LatAm role has become almost marginal beyond Venezuelan oil, with a relevant increase in Brazil
Proved reserves (% of world total) (1980-2011) Source: BBVA Research and BP
Oil Natural gas
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
19
80
19
83
19
86
19
89
19
92
19
95
19
98
20
01
20
04
20
07
20
10
Argentina
Brazil
Colombia
Mexico
Peru
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
19
80
19
83
19
86
19
89
19
92
19
95
19
98
20
01
20
04
20
07
20
10
Argentina
Brazil
Colombia
Mexico
Peru
30
Energy trends: The emerging world at the centre of supply and demand
Energy dependency and supply factors
No world players in SE Asia, but oil and gas reserves rose faster than average in Vietnam
Proved reserves (% of world total) (1980-2011) Source: BBVA Research and BP
Oil Natural gas
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
19
80
19
83
19
86
19
89
19
92
19
95
19
98
20
01
20
04
20
07
20
10
ChinaMalaysiaIndonesiaVietnam
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
19
80
19
83
19
86
19
89
19
92
19
95
19
98
20
01
20
04
20
07
20
10
China MalaysiaIndonesia Vietnam
31
Energy trends: The emerging world at the centre of supply and demand
Key take-aways
• Emerging economies will continue to drive global growth with center of gravity in Emerging Asia
• Rapid economic growth and higher purchasing power behind substantial increase in energy demand in the emerging world
• Efficiency gains will just soften -but not curb – huge demand pressure.
• Energy mix may change but demand will continue to be overwhelming for oil and gas
• Oil and gas production and, especially reserves, concentrated in emerging economies, which will increase institutional and business uncertainties
• Given supply and demand developments, energy security will become much more relevant in the Middle East –China sphere