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BespokePremium.com © Copyright 2015, Bespoke Investment Group, LLC. Bespoke Investment Group, LLC believes all information contained in this report to be accurate, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information in this report or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities.

5 Day Intraday Price Charts:

End of Week Charts

S&P 500 Volatility Index Emerging Markets High Yield Bonds

2 Year Yield 10 Year Yield 30 Year Yield

Europe Asia Ex-Japan Japan

S&P 500 - Large Caps S&P 400 - Mid Caps S&P 600 - Small Caps

Nasdaq Composite Nasdaq Internet Nasdaq Biotech

Prev Close: 1932

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Prev Close: 99.93

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Prev Close: 0.69

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Prev Close: 48.97

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Prev Close: 84.50

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It was a grim end to the weak as far as economic data went

but a ripping rally for stocks as the S&P 500 closed up 3% off

the post-NFP lows. The 1.4% gain versus yesterday’s close led

to 1.04% weekly gain, the first since the week after Labor Day.

Rates were less enthusiastic as the ten year yield closed a

week below 2% for the first time since April 24. The long end

kept underperforming, though, as 5s30s steepened for the 6th

time in 7 weeks, 5 bps higher than last Friday’s close. Crude

was down on the week by all off 16 cents, but rose 1.8% today

as Baker-Hughes rig counts dropped by the most since April

24. High yield is still an issue though as spreads on cash bonds

were 14 bps wider today, and closed the week 61 bps wider;

their worst week since December 12th of last year. Thanks to

selling this morning that was partially bought back, the Bloom-

berg USD index declined 29 bps on the day, 43 bps lower on

the week.

Recapping research we put out this week: 39 charts, small

business is a big deal, an explanation of what forward yields

like the 5y5y breakeven are, no bottom in Energy yet, Q4 sea-

sonality, more Q4 seasonality, economic indicators shift to

neutral, a Fed undivided, earnings season volatility, consumer

confidence doing pretty great, awful price action in biotech.

That’s it for us this week...have a great weekend!

Dividend Growth/Buybacks

Strong Balance Sheet/Weak Balance Sheet

Revenue Growth/High Quality

High Tax/Low Tax

Domestic/Global

1.52

1.54

1.56

1.58

1.60

1.62

0.76

0.77

0.78

0.79

0.80

0.81

0.82

0.83

0.79

0.81

0.83

0.85

0.87

0.89

0.91

0.93

0.95

1.12

1.13

1.14

1.15

1.16

1.17

1.18

1.19

1.20

1.21

0.96

1.01

1.06

1.11

1.16

1.21

Date Time Release Estimate Last Reading

10/5 9:45 Markit US Composite n/a 55.3

10/5 9:45 Markit US Services 55.7 55.6

10/5 10:00 ISM Services 58.0 59.0

10/5 10:00 Labor Market Conditions n/a 2.1

10/6 8:30 Trade Balance ($, bln) -43.0 -41.9

10/6 10:00 IBD Eco Optimism 44.5 42.0

10/7 7:00 MBA Mortgage Apps. n/a -6.7

10/7 15:00 Consumer Credit ($, bln) 19.00 19.10

10/8 8:30 Initial Claims ('000s) 274 277

10/8 8:30 Continuing Claims ('000s) 2205 2191

10/8 9:45 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort n/a 43.0

10/8 14:00 Fed Minutes

10/9 8:30 Import Price Index -0.5 -1.8

10/9 10:00 Wholesale Inventories 0.0 -0.1

Economic Calendar: Week of 10/9/15

https://bespokepremium.com/get/The_Closer_100115_-_Global_Data_Dump_In_39_Charts.pdfhttps://bespokepremium.com/get/The_Closer_093015_-_Big_Small_Business.pdfhttps://bespokepremium.com/get/The_Closer_092915_-_Brooding_Breakevens.pdfhttps://bespokepremium.com/get/The_Closer_092515_-_Bottom_Signals_Consumption_Cruising_Housing_Heavy.pdfhttps://bespokepremium.com/get/B.I.G._Tips_-_Q4_Returns_By_Sector.pdfhttps://bespokepremium.com/get/B.I.G._Tips_-_Q4_Returns_By_Sector.pdfhttps://bespokepremium.com/get/B.I.G._Tips_-_October_and_Q4_Seasonality.pdfhttps://bespokepremium.com/get/B.I.G._Tips_-_Indicator_Diffusion_Index_Pulls_Back_to_Neutral.pdfhttps://bespokepremium.com/get/B.I.G._Tips_-_How_Divided_is_the_Fed.pdfhttps://bespokepremium.com/get/B.I.G._Tips_-_Earnings_Report_Stock_Volatility.pdfhttps://bespokepremium.com/get/B.I.G._Tips_-_Jobs_Boost_for_Consumer_Confidence.pdfhttps://bespokepremium.com/get/B.I.G._Tips_-_Biotech_Stocks_Down_20_Percent_in_Eight_Days.pdf

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Closing Charts & Tweets

Oil Future: Last 15 Trading Days Gold Front Month Future: Last 15 Trading Days

US Dollar Index: Last 15 Trading Days Long Bond Future Intraday: Last 15 Trading Days

S&P 500 Intraday: Last 15 Trading Days Nasdaq Composite: Last 15 Trading Days

43

44

45

46

47

48

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94.0

94.5

95.0

95.5

96.0

96.5

97.0

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151.0

153.0

155.0

157.0

159.0

161.0

163.0

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1870

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9/14 9/16 9/18 9/22 9/24 9/28 9/30 10/2

BCEI 40.31 SPF -80.00 CAMP 704.87 ESIO -65.36

WYNN 22.84 ORN -13.09 PRGS 618.28 ROIC -64.46

BBG 20.82 PRGS -10.26 O 519.64 TTC -63.97

FF 17.78 RGS -6.82 KND 442.76 MTD -63.55

CAMP 16.29 MYRG -5.60 HME 378.55 MDP -63.09

SUNE 14.86 OFG -5.39 EXAR 365.17 SSS -62.83

REXX 14.29 LITE -4.72 WYNN 269.95 PCP -61.97

HLX 13.43 EIG -4.36 JWN 267.18 CECO -60.27

GLF 13.29 KND -4.17 KRA 227.03 DST -59.78

DNR 13.20 EZPW -4.15 RGS 223.39 AMWD -59.72

UNT 13.19 IBKR -4.11 FF 210.40 ENH -59.64

TDW 12.14 SMRT -3.71 SBRA 204.04 BBY -59.24

CRC 11.90 TLMR -3.50 SEM 198.33 TE -58.81

BRS 11.78 SLM -3.48 NPO 194.75 BOBE -58.74

SGY 11.67 CME -3.42 RRTS 186.89 UIHC -57.62

Most Down

Price (%)

S&P 1500 Biggest MoversVolume vs Historical Avg (%)

Most Up Most Down Most Up

Popular Tweets From @bespokeinvest on Twitter

“US September Nonfarm Payrolls +142,000 versus +201,000 expected and 173,000 previous. “ - 8:30

“Average hourly earnings +0.0% MoM vs +0.2% expected and +0.3% previous. Unemployment rate 5.1% vs 5.1% expected/previous.” - 8:30

“NFP has been weaker than expected for four straight and six of the last seven months. ” - 8:34

“Biotech straight up after a gap down at the open, $IBB up close to 2%. ” - 10:51

“Nasdaq ready to go green on the day. ” - 11:09

“Energy sector $XLE on the same track as $IBB intraday, opened at its lows, now higher on the day. ” - 11:50

Ticker Name Change Last 6 MosSPY S&P 500 1.49IJH S&P 400 1.44IJR S&P 600 1.13DIA Dow 30 1.29QQQ Nasdaq 1.75IWB Russel l 1000 1.52IWM Russel l 2000 1.49XLF Financia ls 0.13XLB Materia ls 2.45XLE Energy 4.13XLI Industria ls 1.27XLY Cons . Cycl ica l 1.43XLP Cons . Staples 1.38XLV Health Care 2.08IYZ Telecom 0.94XLK Technology 1.42XLU Uti l i ties 1.33GDX Gold Miners 8.05XME Metals & Mining 4.59XRT Reta i l 1.77XHB Homebui lders 0.40IYR US Real Estate 0.87KRE Regional Banks -1.65IWD Russel l 1000 Value 1.50IWF Russel l 1000 Growth 1.44VXX VIX -5.17AGG Total Bond Mkt 0.30TLT 20+ Yr Treasuries 0.61MUB Muni . Bonds 0.33LQD Invest. Gr. Bonds 0.44JNK High Yield Bonds -0.11BKLN Senior Loan 0.13GLD Gold 2.12SLV Si lver 4.68USO Oi l 1.30UNG Natura l Gas 0.98VT Tota l World 1.66CWI World Ex-US 1.57VEA Developed Mkts 1.65EEM Emerging Mkts 2.67EZU Eurozone 1.72DXJ Japan JPY Hdg'd 1.64EWZ Brazi l 4.92FXI China 3.64EWT Taiwan 1.12EWH Hong Kong 2.92EWW Mexico 1.15

Key ETFs (1 Day % Change)The Tale of The Tape: S&P 500 Energy (Left Axis) vs Nasdaq Biotech (Right Axis)

3,110.00

3,130.00

3,150.00

3,170.00

3,190.00

3,210.00

3,230.00

3,250.00

3,270.00

3,290.00

3,310.00

445

450

455

460

465

470

S&P 500 Energy (Left Axis)

Nasdaq Biotech (Right Axis)

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Sentiment Indicator vs Historical One Week Two Weeks One Month

CBOE Call Volume 1.3 ## -1.4 0.08 -0.11 -0.12

NYSE Up vs Total Volume (%) 47.5 ## -0.5 -0.05 -0.39 -0.63

Nasdaq Up vs Total Volume (%) 45.9 ## -0.7 0.13 0.12 0.37

Index vs Equity PC Ratio 0.1 ## -1.6 0.29 0.84 0.87

VIX 50-Day ROC (%) 65.7 ## 1.7 -0.53 -0.52 0.27

VIX 10-Day ROC (%) -6.0 ## -0.4 0.05 0.15 0.69

Investors Intelligence Bullish (%) 24.7 ## -2.9 1.41 2.14 3.19

Investors Intelligence Bearish (%) 35.1 ## 1.2 -0.27 -0.26 -0.46

Inv Intell. Bull Bear Spread -10.4 ## -2.2 -0.20 0.36 1.25

AAII Bullish (%) 28.1 ## -1.2 -0.01 -0.43 -0.01

AAII Bearish (%) 39.9 ## 0.7 0.08 -0.07 0.37

AAII Bull Bear Spread -11.8 ## -1.0 -0.24 -0.92 -0.82

Overall Sentiment ## -0.7 0.02 -0.09 0.32

Technical

S&P 500 10-Day Avg. Spread (%) 1.2 ## 0.6 -0.03 0.05 0.39

S&P 500 50-Day Avg. Spread (%) -2.5 ## -0.7 -0.08 -0.04 0.27

S&P 500 200-Day Avg. Spread (%) -5.4 ## -0.8 -0.41 -0.46 -0.62

S&P 500 Monthly ROC (%) 1.6 ## 0.3 0.08 0.11 0.20

S&P 500 Weekly ROC (%) 1.0 ## 0.4 -0.13 -0.07 0.26

S&P 500 Quarterly ROC 1 (%) -6.2 ## -1.0 0.35 0.38 0.76

Group 10-Day A/D Line 30.0 ## 0.4 -0.26 -0.27 0.01

Group 50-Day A/D Line -18.0 ## -0.7 -0.30 -0.28 -0.63

S&P 500 10-Day A/D Line 75.0 ## 0.0 0.00 0.00 -0.18

S&P 500 50-Day A/D Line -649.0 ## -0.8 -0.10 0.03 -0.33

NYSE TRIN Index 1.1 ## -0.2 -0.22 -0.08 0.20

Overall Technical ## -0.3 -0.10 -0.04 0.20

Fundamental/Monetary

Corporate Spreads (10-Day ROC) 13.0 ## 0.9 0.01 -0.06 0.34

Corporate Spreads (50-Day ROC) 26.0 ## 0.5 0.17 0.38 0.79

High Yield Spreads (10-Day ROC) 87.0 ## 1.6 -0.44 -0.42 0.93

High Yield Spreads (50-Day ROC) 146.0 ## 0.9 0.22 0.34 0.48

S&P 500 P/S Ratio 1.7 ## 1.2 -0.40 -0.44 -0.80

S&P 500 P/E Ratio 17.3 ## -0.1 -0.12 0.02 0.47

S&P 500 P/B Ratio 2.9 ## 0.7 -0.06 0.17 0.49

Yield Curve (50-Day ROC) 3.6 ## 0.1 0.09 0.41 0.63

Yield Curve (10-Day ROC) -15.4 ## -0.7 0.16 0.39 0.56

Overall Fundamental ## 0.6 0.01 0.17 0.49

Bottom Line ## -0.2 -0.04 -0.02 0.30 Average S&P 500 Performance (All Days) 0.10 0.19 0.38

Average S&P 500 Performance (%)Current Level

Direction

Bespoke Market Timing Model: 10/2/15

Neutral Bearish Bullish

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Shorts covered and longs added in Palladium as US auto sales (a huge industrial user) rolled to a new

post-recession high. In crude markets the spread between WTI and Brent positioning closed very frac-

tionally, while Natural Gas shorts continued to sell with reckless abandon.

CFTC Commitments of Traders Positioning: Money Manager Net Position (% of Open Interest)

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

WTI

Brent 9.3%

-4.5%

Crude Oil

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Heating Oil

Gasoline

4.8%

-7.7%

Refined Products

-30%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Nat Gas

-23.1%

Nat Gas

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Gold

Silver

9.8%

6.1%

Precious Metals 1

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Copper

-5.8%

Copper

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Platinum

Palladium 11.4%

36.2%

Precious Metals 2

Page 6 of 7 The Closer 10/2/15 BespokePremium.com

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CFTC Commitments of Traders Positioning: Money Manager Net Position (% of Open Interest)

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Soybeans

Soybean Oil

-2.4%

-1.3%

Soybeans

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Winter Wheat Spring Wheat-6.8%

-3.9%

Wheat

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Corn

Sugar

4.9%3.1%

Corn/Sugar

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Cocoa Coffee -11.3%

16.7%

Cocoa/Coffee

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Cotton

FCOJ

9.6%

-20.7%

Cotton/FCOJ

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Live Cattle Lean Hogs

14.9%

2.3%

Livestock

Page 7 of 7 The Closer 10/2/15 BespokePremium.com

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Sentiment Indicator vs Historical One Week Two Weeks One MonthCBOE Call Volume 1.7 0.6 0.6 0.13 -0.22 -0.44

Overall Sentiment 0.3 0.3 0.14 0.16 0.28

Bottom Line 0.3 0.3 0.12 0.21 0.27 Average S&P 500 Performance (All Days) 0.12 0.24 0.50

Current Level Average S&P 500 Performance (%)

Direction

The Bespoke Market Timing Model is a compilation of some widely (and not so widely) followed market indicators. While

most investors have one or two indicators they rely on, we all recognize that no indicator by itself is correct all of the time.

With this in mind, we set out to create a series of indicators from multiple disciplines in order to see what the 'crowd' of

indicators are telling us. Just as no individual is bigger than the market, we contend that no single indicator is more accurate

at forecasting the market than the sum of them all. What follows below is an explanation of the various fields in our report.

Indicator: Current level of the given indicator. In this example, CBOE call volume is 1.7 times CBOE put volume.

Direction: Change in the indicator (positive or negative) over the last week. In this example, calls relative to puts have

increased during the last week.

vs Historical: This field measures the distance in standard deviations that the indicator is currently at versus its average

over the last five years. In the above example, the volume of calls relative to puts is 0.6 standard deviations above its histori-

cal average.

Average S&P 500 Performance: This field displays the average performance of the S&P 500 following previously occasions

when the indicator was at similar levels to the present. Values highlighted in green indicate the two indicators for that

group which are predicting the biggest gains, while indicators highlighted in red highlight the indicators which are signaling

the most negative returns going forward.

Overall Scores: Averages all the indicators for a given category. In the example above, overall sentiment is 0.3 standard

deviations from its long-term average. At similar levels in the past, the S&P 500 has gone up an average of 0.14% over the

next week, 0.16% over the next two weeks, and 0.28% over the next month.

Bottom Line: This line shows the average of all the indicators in the study. In the example above, the aggregate level of

all the indicators is currently 0.3 standard deviations above the historical average, and based on prior experiences, the S&P

500 has gone up an average of 0.12% in the next week, 0.21% in the next two weeks, and 0.27% in the next month. Values

highlighted in red indicate returns that underperform the S&P 500 over the entire period covered (regardless of the indica-

tor level), while green highlights indicate that they outperformed the overall average S&P 500 performance.

Average S&P 500 Performance (All Days): This line measures the average historical performance of the S&P 500 over all

periods for one week, two week, and one month time frames. These levels are then compared to the average level the

indicators are predicting.in the next two weeks, and 0.27% in the next month. Values highlighted in red indicate returns

that underperform the S&P 500 over the entire period covered (regardless of the indicator level), while green highlights

indicate that they outperformed the overall average S&P 500 performance.