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Emerging Trends in Commercial Refrigeration; What Stakeholders ThinkJim Kelsey, PEkW Engineering
Quality Assurance Statement
IIAR has met the standards and requirements of the Registered Continuing Education Program. Credit earned on completion of this certificate program will be reported to RCEP at RCEP.net, and a certificate of completion will be issued. Certificates are not to be deemed or construed to be an approval or endorsement by RCEP.
To qualify for a Certificate of Completion, learners must:1.) Be in attendance for the duration of the activity.2.) Send your PDH Recording Form to IIAR or fill it out on the IIAR Annual
Conference app.
Learning Objectives
After attending this activity, participants will be able to…
• Identify the leading retrofit options for reducing GWP, their pros and cons
• Identify trends in new commercial refrigeration system options for low GWP refrigerants
• Compare modeling options in commercial refrigeration systems
Acknowledgements
Thanks to:
• NASRC• Pacific Gas and Electric• Southern California Edison
What we’ll cover
• Market survey method• Trends in new construction• Trends in retrofits• Cost and policy pressures• Modeling options
Market survey – what we did
Goals1. Estimate the impact of new regs in CA on Energy Efficiency2. Determine the need/demand for modeling tools
Conducted interviews with industry participants• Owners/operators (making up about 25% of the CA supermarket) • Vendors• Design engineers / consultants• Policymakers
Owners / Operators
46%
Engineers / Consultants
39%
Policymakers15%
Participants
1. Existing Store Make-up
Mos
t com
mon
Vast Majority of stock using traditional approaches
> 95
%
Configuration Heat Rejection Refrigerants
Multiplex / Parallel Air-cooled HCFC / HFC
Multiplex / Parallel Water-cooled HCFC / HFC
Distributed compressors Water-cooled HCFC / HFC
Singles Air-cooled HCFC / HFC
Multiplex / Parallel Air-cooled 448 / 449
CO2 TC / CO2 booster Adiabatic CO2
2. New Construction Trends• Larger chains are
“experimenting” with naturals and low-GWP
• Expect slow growth ~ 1%• “overbuilt”
HFOs 448, 44916%
Cascade CO2/NH3
16%
CO2 TC47%
Propane/HCs21%
Design preferences – Low GWP Options
3. Retrofit Trends
• Many choosing 448 / 449 as the only practical retrofit option
• Doing a few stores to gain experience
• Will not do many of those until required
Retrofit Options
GWP < 150• New everything!• Compressors• Cases / Fixtures• Heat Rejection• $$$
GWP < 1500• For compatible existing
equipment HFO Blends• Relatively affordable• Good energy performance• Relatively modest reduction in
GWP ~ 60%• Still have high volumes, leaks
For non-compatible existing equipment ???Incentive to “run existing equipment into the ground” ?
Common Interview Comments
“Need for workforce education and training w/ naturals”
“Desire for market focus / clarity / options we can bet on”
“There’s still a lot of R-22 out there”
“Why go to GWP of 1500, the regs will likely ratchet downward. Just go to near zero and be done with it.”
Regulatory Pressures in CA
• New CARB rules likely to rule prior to Kigali ratification in US
• SB 1383 (2016) commits to 40% HFC reductions by 2030
• SB 1013 establishes Fluorinated Gases Emission Reduction Incentive Program
• HFCs in new and retrofit (>1500) banned Jan 2019• Requires CPUC to develop low GWP in equipment
funded by energy efficiency programs • CARB: Proposed no new install GWP>150 in 2022
CPUC is limited in what it can credit for energy efficiency to gains not
already “counted”
15
How The Commission Meets Its Legislative Mandate
Naturally Occurring
SavingsIOU Program
Savings
Codes & Standards / Industry Standard
Practice
Energy savings in demand forecast
All unmet efficiency market potential
Free ridership
Double counted free ridership
Forecasted savingsthat did not occur
The CPUC contracts consultants to identify all potential energy saving available, establish savings goals for the program administrators to achieve, and works with CEC to ensure that the savings are accurately forecasted, including naturally occurring and savings from codes and standards. California Public Utilities Commission 16
Codes & Standards / Industry Standard Practice
time
Actually it’s a pipeline that looks like
Experience from Europe
“The market didn’t move until 1 or 2 big chains moved, then it tipped.”
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
Stor
es in
CA
(app
rox)
remaining HFC stores # low GWP
Can we get there?
Even with bold assumptions, a 40% reduction will be tough
Something else is needed
Assuming:• All major
remodels and new stores are low-GWP
• Historical growth in new stores
• Comprehensive remodel rate 1% (about 50 stores a year)
• Need 3% remodel rate to get to 40%
Good news / Bad News• “Lara Bill” (SB 1013) creates paths for incentives
• Money to come from Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund
• Fund spends about $2 Billion per year• To date only about 8% for energy efficiency• All EE to date for residential & disadvantaged communities
• Funding not yet in budget• CPUC inexperienced with GWP goals – focus on energy
Outstanding Issues
• Will new CA HFC phase out regs allow reclaim? (Has huge impact on cost pressure to retrofit)
• How soon can we get an incentive program in place and funded?
Modeling toolsSurvey respondents express a desire for independent tools
• Vendor – neutral• Level playing field• Encompassing new system design options and fixtures• Easy to use• Reliable / trustworthy
Regulatory need• T-24 compliance• GWP analysis• Incentive determination
Existing Modeling Options
Current options are all very difficult to use – not practical for most design engineers as part of design practice
Software Description Limitation(s) vis-à-vis ideal
DOE 2.2RHourly simulation with component models
Does not do CO2 TC, further development unlikely
eQUESTHourly simulation with simplified refrigeration
Existing models oversimplified. Does not do naturals
EnergyPlusVariable time step simulation with CO2 TC, economics
Steep learning curve, time consuming
Pack Calculation Pro
System-level tool that does CO2 TC, CO2 cascade
No interactive effects, no hydrocarbons, HFOs or economics.
Genetron Properties
System-level tool; Does mult CO2 options, Hydrocarbons, HFOs
Steep learning curve, no interactive effects, economics or whole building
Conclusions
• HFC Phase out in CA will be a major market driver• Currently there is a disconnect between market drivers and
regulatory goals• Retrofits beyond GWP < 1500 will be very costly• And hence, unlikely without significant incentives
• This industry needs to engage more with CARB/CPUC to get incentives in place and moving the market.
• No easy-to-use & useful refrigeration modelling tools as yet
