electricity - Energy Exemplar · so as to address imbalances in electricity markets. “having complex models to be solved, plexos still computes the results in a fair period of time

electr ici t y

What is PLEXOS?

Why use PLEXOS?

Who uses PLEXOS?

Support

Training

Implementation

Datasets

Customisations

Long Term Capacity Expansion Planning

Transmission Planning Analysis

Demand Modelling

System Security and Adequacy

Ancillary Services and Energy Co-Optimisation

Optimally Times Maintenance

Dispatch Optimisation

Renewable Energy Planning and Integration

Storage

Multi-Stage Hydro and Storage Optimisation

Market Analysis for Trading and Hedging

Risk Analysis

Electricity and Gas Co-Optimisation

The PLEXOS Integrated Energy Model

3.

3.

3.

4.

4.

4.

4.

4.

5.

8.

10.

12.

14.

16.

18.

20.

23.

25.

27.

29.

31.

Contents

Services

PLEXOS Applications in Electricity

PLEXOS | by Energy Exemplar p. 3

What is PLEXOS

PLEXOS is economic software that uses

mathematically based optimisation techniques

for forecasting.

PLEXOS is easy to use and offers the latest data

handling, visualisation features, and distributed

computing methods, to provide a high-

performance, robust simulation system for

electric power, water and gas.

Why use PLEXOS

An investment in PLEXOS is a small outlay compared

to the enormous benefits that are realised from

savings in costs, better ways to maximise profits and

from achieving more accurate planning results.

PLEXOS is not a Black Box and is highly configurable

by the user. It offers cutting edge access to some of

the most advanced algorithms and modelling

techniques thus giving the user peace of mind and a

real life simulation experience.

Who uses PLEXOS

PLEXOS integrated software offers something for

everyone, making its applications highly useful to a

variety of users and needs.

Current users include:

• Departments of Energy and Ministries

• Market Operators, Regulators and Commissions

• Electricity Generators, Traders and Retailers

• Transmission System Operators

• Power Plant Manufacturers and Construction companies

• Gas Producers, Traders and Retailers

• LNG Operators and Traders

• Consultants, Analysts and Research Institutions

• Academics

It’s more than software – it’s a VIP gateway to a

global community of users in over 43 countries.

Expand your network and join the rapidly growing

community of PLEXOS users.

The PLEXOS Integrated Energy Model

S U PP O RT

Providing the best support is our first priority at Energy Exemplar.

Our philosophy is to staff well and keep employing ahead of the curve. We

currently have 25 PLEXOS experts in various regions and another 15 full time

developers who are well placed to respond to your needs. All PLEXOS licenses

come with free and unlimited support.

TR A I N I N G

PLEXOS comes with comprehensive help files and a built in electronic Wiki.

However, there is no substitute for taking one of our training courses. Select from

a range of generic and customisable training courses which help new users get

started or help more intermediate and advanced modellers improve their skills.

Group training is also held in each region from time to time.

I M PLE M E NTATI O N

The best forecasts come from a well calibrated and back-tested model. Energy

Exemplar’s PLEXOS analysts have a wealth of modelling experience from all over

the world and undertake customised implementation projects very regularly.

Some examples include dataset builds and back-tests, assistance with modelling

configurations for projects, software optimisation for speed and accuracy,

software installations, client-server configuration, automation of data entry and

customised reports that link directly to simulation outputs.

DATA S ET S

Energy Exemplar have close to 30 datasets from all over the world in PLEXOS

form and this number is growing as we are always working on a new one! If we

don’t have a certain country, we can work to build one on request.

C U STO M I SATI O N S

If there is a feature you need which we don’t have, you may request it and we

will build it as part of a future release at no cost providing the benefit exists for

other users as well. Alternatively, our development team regularly work on

exclusive bespoke customisation projects. PLEXOS also comes with the Open-

PLEXOS tool which allows users to make customisable changes by programming

PLEXOS how you like.

PLEXOS | by Energy Exemplar p.4

Ser vices

Long Term Capaci ty Expans ion Planning


“PLEXOS HAS BEEN THE ‘ALL IN ONE TOOL’ FOR US FOR SUCH ANALYSIS, FROM MARKET MODELLING TO PL ANNING, FORECASTING AND OPTIMISATION. WITH ITS PERFECTLY DESIGNED GUI, WE HAVE SAVED GREAT EFFORT IN FORMUL ATING COMPLEX PROBLEMS AS WELL AS GOOD AMOUNT OF TIME WITH ITS FAST AND FLEXIBLE SIMUL ATIONS.”

Mutlu Yildir im

ETRM, Turkey

COMPLEX PROBLEMS REQUIRE POWERFUL TOOLS.

Let the advanced a lgor i thms in PLEXOS provide the cer ta int y of what, when, or where to

opt imal ly invest or ret i re f rom the point of v iew of consider ing generat ion and

t ransmiss ions across e lec tr ic i t y, gas and water.

Physical Generation and Load Contracts

Any Type of Generating

Technologies

TransmissionDynamics

Multi-Stage Generation & Transmission

Projects

Demand Side Participation

PLEXOSLT PLAN

PLEXOS | by Energy Exemplar Long Term Capacity Expansion Planning p. 6

Ass ign pract ica l ly any ru le wi th the constra int, decis ion var iable

and condit ional c lasses .

LT Plan Model l ing Features

• Regional capaci ty reserve margins & anci l lary serv ices .

• Maximum number of uni ts bui l t and ret i red.

• Technica l and F inancia l l i fe spans .

• Fuel ava i labi l i ty and maximum fuel usage.

• Minimum energy product ion.

• Cogenerat ion and other must-run condit ions .

• Emiss ion product ion l imi ts and Renewable Energy Targets .

• Hydroelectr ic s torage targets and re leas ing pol ic ies .

LT Plan

Optimal Investment

MT Schedule

ResourceAllocation

PASA

Optimal Reserve Sharing &

Maintenance Schedule

ST Schedule

ChronologicalCommitment

PLEXOS | by Energy Exemplar Long Term Capacity Expansion Planning p. 7

Let Energy Exemplar® help you take flight and soar above the rest. energyexemplar.com

Who uses PLEXOS LT Plan?

The LT Plan i s fu l ly integrated with the other PLEXOS s imulat ion phases to ensure

seamless solut ions . Users can run the LT Plan e i ther separately or in sequence with any

other phase. Once an investment decis ion is made in the LT Plan, th is i s automat ica l ly

passed down to other integrated PLEXOS tools , such as ST which emulates a market

c lear ing engine for more deta i led analys is .

Worldwide, an increas ing number of Ut i l i t ies , Consul tants , Regulators and Independent

System Operators use PLEXOS LT Plan for their capaci ty expans ion model l ing. The

Austra l ian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) re l ies on PLEXOS to develop the Nat ional

Transmiss ion Network Development Plan (NTNDP) , for which the model l ing assumpt ions

and PLEXOS LT database can be freely accessed at :

www.aemo.com.au/Electr ic i ty/Planning/Related-Informat ion/Planning-Assumptions

Transmiss ion Planning and Analys is


DON’T GET tangled up and confused.

LARGE CONNECTION OF MULTIPLE AC AND DC NETWORKS – 10,000’S OF BUSES AND LINES

LOSS MODELLING

SECURITY CONSTRAINTED UNIT COMMITMENT (SCUC), DC LINES AND PHASE SHIFTERS

GENERIC CONSTRAINTS AND INTERFACE LIMITS, WHEELING CHARGES

TRANSMISSION AGGREGATION AND NETWORK REDUCTION

MONTE CARLO SIMULATION OUTAGES AND OPTIMAL TRANSMISSION SWITCHING

LOCAL MARGINAL PRICE (LMP) DECOMPOSITION AND FINANCIAL TRANSMISSION RIGHTS (FTR) EVALUATION

NODAL PRICING AND DECOMPOSITION INTO ENERGY, CONGESTION AND MARGINAL LOSS COMPONENTS

PLEXOS | by Energy Exemplar Transmission Planning and Analysis p. 9

PLEXOS is used extens ively by t ransmiss ion system operators (TSO) to opt imise and

analyse the impact of t ransmiss ion operat ion and congest ion costs . The abi l i ty to

model opt imal power flow (OPF) wi th losses i s fu l ly integrated with dispatch and

uni t commitment.

PLEXOS features for t ransmiss ion inc lude:

In addit ion, PLEXOS LT phase a l lows analysts to ident i fy opt imal l ine investment

of t ransmiss ion upgrades and ret i rements .


Demand Model l ing


Powered by ADVANCED ALGORITHMS and a R AFT OF FEATURES , the PLEXOS

bui ld tool is the per fect companion for GROWING DEMAND TR ACES .

FORECAST DEMAND BY LINKING VARIABLES l ike temperature

dependency and then append your newly created inputs to dif ferent

models FOR FAST AND EASY SENSITIVIT Y ANALYSIS .

Demand Response Model l ing

FIXED ENERGY LOAD

PRICE DEPENDENT LOAD

RESOURCE PLANNING DEPENDENT LOAD

• Can be used to represent curtailable or shiftable load• Can be used with multi-variable correlated sampling

The PLEXOS 3D Viewer

• Can be defined using piecewise linear price/quantity values• Can represent purchasers & demand side participation at regional, zonal or nodal level

• Can be modelled as expansion anti-generator candidates (with all expansion facets of generators and net negative injection to the system)

• Can be used to model lumpy investment impact at the industrial level

PLEXOS | by Energy Exemplar Demand Modelling p. 11

Demand can be represented as fixed energy, pr ice dependent, or

resource planning dependent.


System Secur i ty and Adequacy


“PLEXOS HAS BEEN FASCINATING TO USE TO PRODUCE THE SOUTH AFRICAN INTEGRATED RESOURCE PL AN ( IRP) . THE STOCHASTIC OPTIMISATION ASPECT OF IT WAS HELPFUL TO ESTABLISH THE POSITION OF LEAST REGRET AND WE ARE CONFIDENT THAT THE NEX T IRP WILL BE MORE INFORMATIVE GIVEN THAT PLEXOS HAS GIVEN US NEW QUESTIONS WHICH NEED ANSWERS.”

Sipho Mdhluli

Eskom

System operators and planners the wor ld over RELY ON PLEXOS for

ASSESSING SECURIT Y and ADEQUACY.

PLEXOS | by Energy Exemplar System Security & Adequacy p. 13

A convolut ion method is used tak ing into account the forced outages

LOLP, LOLE, EDNS & EENS indic ies are ca lculated in the LT Plan and PASA

Mult i -area LOLP index is ca lculated us ing State space decomposi t ion and Monte Car lo

s imulat ion

Secur i ty

Secur i ty constra ined uni t commitment (SCUC) a lgor i thm is used

Cont ingency shi f t factors are ca lculated

‘N-x ’ cont ingency analys is i s supported

Adequacy


Anci l lary Serv ices and Energy Co-Opt imisat ion


Ut i l i t ies and sys tem operators must be on h igh a ler t for UNFORESEEN CONTINGENCIES

so as to address IMBAL ANCES IN ELECTRICIT Y MARKETS .

“HAVING COMPLEX MODELS TO BE SOLVED, PLEXOS STILL COMPUTES THE RESULTS IN A FAIR PERIOD OF TIME. THE GRAPHICAL SOLUTION VIEWER ENABLES US TO QUICKLY CHECK OUR MODEL’S CONSISTENCY.”

Hendrik Heese

Borusan EnBW Enerj i

PLEXOS models mult ip le reserve c lasses

Ercot i s one of many ent i t ies who rely on PLEXOS to model reserve provis ions co-opt imised

with generat ion dispatch and uni t commitment to a sub-hour ly level wi th deta i led t reatment

s tar t-up, shut-down, ramping and other constra int interact ion minute by minute.

Ent i t ies across di f ferent countr ies commonly report back changes in a GT ut i l i sat ion v is-à-v is

more efficient plant post deta i led co-opt imisat ion of reserves and energy in PLEXOS.

RAISE RAISE RAISE RAISE

LOWER

SPINNING REGULATION OPERATIONALNON-SPINNING

REPLACEMENTNON-SPINNING

LOWER LOWER LOWER

Energy/Ancillary services price forecasts Energy schedule Ancillary services schedule

PLEXOS SCUC & ED ALGORITHM

Energy offers Ancillary service offers Generator constraints Transmission constraints Fuel & emission limits

PLEXOS | by Energy Exemplar Ancillary Services and Energy Co-Optimisation p. 15


Optimal ly T imes Maintenance


“PLEXOS IS OUR TOOL OF CHOICE FOR NEM MARKET MODELLING. IT GIVES US THE FLEXIBILIT Y TO SET UP THE MODEL AS WE CHOOSE, AND ITS SCENARIO MANAGEMENT IS VERY SOPHISTICATED, ALLOWING CONSISTENT ASSUMPTIONS TO BE APPLIED TO SHORT, MEDIUM OR LONG-TERM OUTLOOKS.”

Ben Howard

AGL

Optimise maintenance per formed at a company or por t fo l io. Opt imise scarce

resources (e.g. equipment or crew required) across mult ip le maintenance events and

t ime hor izons to minimise costs . Maintenance events can be l inked to other events .

Per form a run e i ther determinis t ica l ly or v ia s tochast ic opt imisat ion. Fr iendly inter face

al lows easy assumpt ion changes in seconds .

CHOOSE ASSETSTEP ONE

TransmissionLines

Gas / WaterPipelines

Generators

YOUR SETTINGSSTEP TWO

SET PLANNEDMAINTENANCE OR ORPASA User DefinedCost

SET FORCED OUTAGE

ASSUMPTIONSOR

Convergent& Normal

Monte Carlo

StochasticOptimisation

SET T IME TO REPAIR Uniform

Lognormal

Exponential

Weibull

SmallestExtreme

Value (SEV)

LargestExtreme

Value (LEV)

Triangular

LOOK AHEAD

OPTIMALLY DISTRIBUTES OUTAGES

NOW CCGT OUT TRANSMISSION LINE OUT FUTURE

PLEXOS | by Energy Exemplar Optimally Times Maintenance p. 17


PLEXOS Dispatch Opt imisat ion


“THE SAVINGS GENERATED AFTER INVESTING IN PLEXOS ARE MANY HUNDREDS MORE THAN THE INITIAL OUTL AY. IT ’ S A NO-BRAINER .”

R a zib Dawood

Electric it y Commiss ion of Mal ays ia

LET PLEXOS DECIDE which turn to make nex t.

PLEXOS | by Energy Exemplar PLEXOS Dispatch Optimisation p. 19


Uti l i t ies report sav ings in the tens of mi l l ions of dol lars f rom more efficient dispatch

decis ions that lower product ion costs g iven constra ints such as emiss ions .

PLEXOS a lgor i thms offer choices for uni t commitment decis ions .

Mixed integer programming together wi th the abi l i ty to s imulate down to the 1 – minute

level equates to a rea l l i fe- l ike emulat ion of a system. Automate PLEXOS to work in the

background in a “ rea l t ime” environment, regular ly feeding resul ts to operators .

Rounded RelaxationLinear Programming

ALGORITHMS IN PLEXOS

DynamicProgramming

Mixed Integer Programming

COAL

GAS 1WINDNUCLEAR

EMISSIONS CONSTRAINTS

FUEL MIX CONSTRAINTS

TRANSMISSION CONSTRAINTS

TARGET POSITION

GAS 3

GAS 2

PHYSICAL CONSTRAINTS

SUPPLY = DEMANDAT EACH INTERVAL

MINIMISE THIS COST

WHILST OBSERVING THIS

Minimise Production Costs and Satisfy Constraints

Renewable EnergyPlanning and Integrat ion


“PLEXOS IS A VALUED TOOL WHICH PROVIDES CEZ WITH MORE INSIGHT INTO EUROPEAN POWER AND CARBON MARKET DYNAMICS. THE ANALYSIS OF FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERS AND THEIR IMPACT ON THE FUTURE BAL ANCE OF POWER SYSTEMS IS BENEFICIAL FOR BOTH TRADING AND INVESTMENT DECISION PURPOSES.”

Zdenek Pek arekCEZ

LET PLEXOS OPTIMALLY GUIDE YOU TO A LOW CARBON FUTURE .

L ife-l ike deta i l captured in sub-hour ly s imulat ions wi th correc t solut ions del ivered

through Mixed Integer Programming as back-up generat ion s teps in to fi l l the gaps

lef t behind f rom intermit tency.

PLEXOS | by Energy Exemplar Renewable Energy Planning and Integration p. 21

43 countr ies re ly on PLEXOS for renewable s tudies .

Contact Energy Exemplar for access to papers and publ icat ions .

USA’s PJM use

PLEXOS for the

Clean Power Plan.

AUSTRALIA’s

AEMO publ ished

nat ional s tudies

in PLEXOS format

for download.

CHILE’s Coordinador

Electr ico Nacional

re l ies on PLEXOS for

long term nat ional

renewable plans .

PLEXOS is heavi ly used

by the main author i t ies

for renewable

integrat ion s tudies in

INDIA as 170GW is

targeted by 2022.

90% of EUROPE’s

ut i l i t ies market

re l ies on PLEXOS

for carbon t rading

management.

The re levance is universa l :

PLEXOS | by Energy Exemplar Renewable Energy Planning and Integration p. 22


Key PLEXOS Capabi l i t ies

PLEXOS has kept pace with disrupt ive and innovat ive advancements in energy storage,

smart gr ids and electr ic vehic les .

Sub-hour ly model l ing (down to 1 minute level ) to represent intermit tent generat ion

Mult i -commodity opt imisat ion by integrat ing mult ip le models

Energy & anci l lary serv ices co-opt imisat ion with renewables

Inter leaved s imulat ion to opt imise uni t commitment and economic dispatch of Day-Ahead

and Real-T ime markets

Stochast ic s imulat ion to model uncerta int ies us ing Monte Car lo s imulat ion or Stochast ic

opt imisat ion

Representat ion of deta i led real l i fe technica l constra ints

Var ious autoregress ive sampl ing models for wind speed, solar radiat ion and

natura l inflows

THE BATTERY

CLASS

Electric Vehicles

CAES

Thermal Storage Systems

Flowing Electrolyte

Batteries

Secondary Batteries

FlywheelBatteries

Storage


PLEXOS represents a l l types of

ENERGY STOR AGE TECHNOLOGY

for short and long term model l ing.

I t a l lows the COMPUTATION OF

SAVINGS f rom PRODUCTION

COSTS , CONGESTION CHARGES

and REDUCTION IN LOSSES .

PLEXOS | by Energy Exemplar Storage p. 24

CAPACITY (MWh)

SELF DISCHARGE (%/h)

MAX INPUT POWER (MW)

BUILD COST ($/MWh)

ECONOMIC LIFE (years)

TECHNICAL LIFE (cycles)

CALENDAR LIFE (years)

WACC (% p.a.)

FO&M CHARGE ($/kW/year)

Etc.

CHARGE EFFICIENCY (%)

DISCHARGE EFFICIENCY (%)

MAX OUTPUT POWER (MW)

MAX SoC (%)

MIN SoC (%)

INITIAL SoC (%)

Long-term Appl icat ions

Can carry out cost-benefit analys is of t ransmiss ion and dis t r ibut ion network deferra ls

Can assess potent ia l benefits f rom reduced transmiss ion congest ion

Can model gr id s tabi l i sat ion and t ransmiss ion loss reduct ion

Short-term Appl icat ions

Can solve chronologica l uni t commitment us ing a sub-hour ly resolut ion

Can opt imise bidding st rategies for energy t ime shi f t ing

Can ident i fy and evaluate revenue st ream opportuni t ies in the energy and reserve market

Can model renewable energy smoothing, peak-shaving and load-level l ing


An array of micro gr id s tudies publ ished with PLEXOS, thanks to the ‘firs t to market ’

innovat ive PLEXOS battery and flow control c lasses .

Mult i -Stage Hydro and Storage Opt imisat ion


Demands on generat ion are VOL ATILE , inflows are UNPREDICTABLE

and constra ints are COMPLEX . Thank ful ly the PLEXOS STOCHASTIC

SOLUTION IS NOT…

Because i t ’s jus t as impor tant to KNOW WHAT TO SAVE FOR L ATER .

WIND RAINSOLAR

CASCADES

JUNCTIONS

CANALS

RUN OF RIVER

PUMP STORAGE

SPILLWAYS

IRRIG

ATION

WATER POLICIES

ENVIRONMENTAL

RELEASES

PLEXOS | by Energy Exemplar Multi-Stage Hydro and Storage Optimisation p. 26

Fast and t ransparent s imulat ions for long term investment and short term opt imisat ion are a l l

the more useful when hydro is co-opt imised with other resources .

Integrate complex hydro systems with generation efficiency curves, head storage dependency,

waterway flow delays, evaporation and other factors. Perform determinist ic or multi-stage

stochastic solutions over any horizon. Seamlessly integrate with the hydro-thermal coordination

problem via hydro targets or future cost function decomposit ion.


Market Analys is for Trading and Hedging


PLEXOS is the TOOL OF CHOICE FOR HEDGE FUNDS and the world ’s leading

ut i l i t ies for making the best t rading decis ions . PLEXOS is UNIVERSALLY

RELEVANT to any t ype of system, whether a market is present or not.

Apply physica l and financia l contrac ts and load obl igat ions to dynamical ly

modif y generat ion in PLEXOS for OPTIMAL DISPATCH DECISIONS .

Maximise profits wi th the pr ice based uni t commitments a lgor i thms.

“Sample back test Actual vs PLEXOS price in Victoria Australia July 2014.”

SET MINIMUM PROFIT TARGETS

PERFORM SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS FOR GENERATION ASSET VALUATION AND RISK ANALYSIS

BETTER UNDERSTAND THE SENSITIVITY OF PRICE FORECASTS AND RESULTING EFFECTS ON DISPATCH DECISIONS AND CASH FLOW VARIATION

PLEXOS | by Energy ExemplarMarket Analysis for trading and hedging

p. 28

Accurate pr ice forecast ing is made easy with PLEXOS in the face of uncerta in

var iables such as demand, weather, p lant fa i lures and fuel shortages. Perform short

and long term forecasts for any system, at the zonal , regional or nodal level .


Risk Analys is


Whether you are designing an OPTIMAL PORTFOLIO or STRESS TESTING

an exis t ing one, PLEXOS of fers SEAMLESS MULTI-SCENARIO PL ANNING

aimed at del iver ing an array of outputs for a BET TER INFORMED DECISION .

VALUE AT RISK ( VAR) and EARNING AT RISK (EAR) models are ENHANCED

with the integrat ion of PLEXOS outputs .

IDENTIFY HIGH RISK-LOW COST OR LOW RISK/HIGH COST SOLUTIONS

IDENTIFY KEY INVESTMENTS DECISIONS THAT WILL HAVE THE GREATEST IMPACT ON RISK

Availability

Start ProfilesReserve Requirement Swaption

Cap

ToP FuelContracts

Interruptibility

Volume FlexFixed Costs

& Constraints

Floor

SwingDecision Variables Applied

Swap

PPAsEmission Costs

Variable Costs

Condition Dispatch Settings

Bids

Optimal Dispatch Strategy Optimal Contract Portfolio

PLEXOS | by Energy Exemplar Risk Analysis p. 30

PLEXOS can integrate the Condit ional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) in the opt imisat ion

problem to generate an efficient f ront ier of solut ions . Th is can be used to:

PLEXOS can model the uncerta inty of phys ica l and financia l port fol ios determinis t ica l ly

or s tochast ica l ly.


Phys ica l Port fo l io Financia l Port fo l io

Electr ic i ty and Gas Co-Opt imisat ion


Plug in PLEXOS for Gas and model the FULL CO - OPTIMISED CHAIN f rom the

GAS PRODUCTION BASIN to the ELECTRON ARRIVING AT ITS DESTINATION .

PLEXOS | by Energy Exemplar Electricity and Gas Co-Optimisation p. 32

Model l ing commodit ies in their i so lated systems is a th ing of the past .

Many of the WORLD’S LEADING UTILITIES AND ISOs have discovered that

CO - OPTIMISED MODELS del iver BET TER SAVINGS and HIGHER RETURNS to

s takeholders .


Contact the team at Energy Exemplar

to receive case s tudies showing:

Valuat ion of gas and electr ic s torage opt ions with dual fuel opt imisat ion.

Evolut ion of gas and electr ic cont ingencies and the re l iabi l i ty impacts on the wider system.

Least cost opex and capex co-opt imisat ion of gas and electr ic expans ion and ret i rements .

Emergence of gas constra ints wi th generat ion ret i rements .

Ful l end to end LNG model l ing co-opt imised with e lectr ic i ty.

Documents

electricity - Energy Exemplar · so as to address imbalances in electricity markets. “having complex models to be solved, plexos still computes the results in a fair period of time