Elaboration of Data Layers for Global

Earthquake Models: Case Study Pakistan

Dissertation as a requirement for the degree of

Doktor-Ingenieur

at the Faculty of Civil Engineering Bauhaus-University Weimar

Submitted by:

Syed Tariq Maqsood, M.Sc. from Islamabad (Pakistan)

15 August 2011

Weimar

Dedication

DEDICATION

To my loving parents

Abstract

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ABSTRACT

Earthquakes are amongst the worst natural disasters that could cause vast devastation,

lots of casualties and enormous economic loss. Earthquake risk assessment is a

technique usually adopted by engineers and decision-makers to mitigate the

undesirable results of such disasters. The goal of a seismic risk assessment is the

estimation of the consequences of seismic events upon a geographical area (a city, a

region, a state or a nation) in a certain period of time. The results provided by an

earthquake risk analysis can be regarded as helpful guidelines in respect to all the

phases of the risk management: during normal periods, during crisis periods, as well as

in the recovery and post-emergency periods.

The aim of this Ph.D. thesis is the elaboration of data layers for earthquake risk

assessment. Several field surveys have been conducted to define typical building types

in the study area, i.e., Pakistan, and to assess vulnerability of the building stock. Special

surveys after the damaging 2005 Kashmir and 2008 Baluchistan earthquakes helped to

identify the typical failure mechanisms of different construction types and the factors

contributed to their failure. Reconstruction after the 2005 Kashmir earthquake is also

observed and key statistics have been collected to compare the risk level before and

after the reconstruction. Building and population statistics from the 1998 national

census of Pakistan have been used to quantify the social and structural vulnerability

and its distribution across the country.

An empirical approach based on European Macroseismic Scale – 1998 and developed

at Bauhaus University Weimar, Germany, is used to assess the vulnerability of building

stock at different levels of study, i.e., micro (Muzaffarabad City), meso (Northern

Pakistan) and macro (whole Pakistan). The empirical method describes the seismic

hazard in terms of macroseismic intensities and structural vulnerability in terms of

vulnerability classes which is dependent upon building type, quality of materials,

workmanship, level of earthquake resistant design etc.

A comprehensive literature review of the published casualty models has been

conducted to identify the key contributing parameters and limitations of those

published models. An estimation of casualties during the 2005 Kashmir earthquake is

carried out using the casually rates from the published models. Later, a new

vulnerability-based casualty model (VBCM) is developed and applied to the 2005

Kashmir earthquake.

Abstract

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Several damage scenarios have been developed in different parts of the study area to

estimate the level of damage and loss in the selected scenarios which can be used by

the decision makers to begin to draft mitigation policies and programs.

There has been a significant development in the recent years at the global level in this

field of research. The two major initiatives are the USGS Prompt Assessment of Global

Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) program and Global Earthquake Model (GEM). For

the case of Pakistan, PAGER utilizes the published data of the present study to estimate

building damage and risk in Pakistan. GEM is still in the initial stages, however, the

methodology and goals of both PAGER and GEM are similar in nature to the present

study. Therefore, it can be attributed that the work done is in conjunction with the

recent demands and developments.

Acknowledgements

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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTNS

Praise is to God, the most gracious and the most merciful, for His help that enable me to

finish this work.

I would like to express my deepest gratitude and appreciation to my supervisor, Dr.-

Ing. Jochen Schwarz, for his meticulous guidance throughout my period of candidature.

I would like to thank him for his continuous help, support and inspiration during this

project. His lateral thinking and guidance helped me overcome successfully any

obstacles found during the period. Particular thanks are also due to Prof. Dr.-Ing. habil.

Frank Werner for his support and useful suggestions. I am grateful to Prof. Dr.-Ing.

habil. Carsten Könke and Prof. Dr. Polat Gülkan to act as reviewers of this study.

I would like to acknowledge the financial support provided by German Academic

Exchange Service (DAAD), Bauhaus Research School and German Taskforce for

Earthquakes to carry out this research.

I would like to thank the support of respective authorities in Pakistan, mainly UN-

Habitat, Population Census Organization, and National Engineering Services Pakistan

(Pvt.) Ltd. (NESPAK) for providing me the necessary data. Interaction and data sharing

with Syed Subtain Hussain and Baber Tanvir being of vital importance is gladly

acknowledged.

My gratitude is also extended to the members of the Earthquake Damage Analysis

Center (EDAC) at Bauhaus-University for their spontaneous help and cooperation.

My deepest gratitude goes to my father, brothers and sisters for all their prayers and

support over the years and for being just a phone call away ready to respond to all my

requests and demands.

Furthermore, I wish to express my sincere thanks to my wife, Faiza Yasmeen, for her

love, invaluable care and encouragement. Finally, I would like to thank my mother for

her love and prayers, which will be with me eternally.

Table of Contents

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

ABSTRACT .................................................................................................................... i

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTNS ................................................................................... iii

TABLE OF CONTENTS .......................................................................................... iv

LIST OF FIGURES .................................................................................................... ix

LIST OF TABLES ..................................................................................................... xii

1. INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................. 1

1.1. BACKGROUND ...................................................................................................................... 1

1.2. OBJECTIVES ........................................................................................................................... 2

1.3. METHODOLOGY .................................................................................................................. 4

1.3.1. Earthquake Hazard ............................................................................................ 4

1.3.2. Building Inventory .............................................................................................. 5

1.3.3. Vulnerability Assessment ................................................................................ 6

2. RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN RISK ASSESSMENT ....................... 10

2.1. PROMPT ASSESSMENT OF GLOBAL EARTHQUAKES FOR RESPONSE .... 10

2.1.1. Earthquake Source .......................................................................................... 10

2.1.2. Shaking Distribution ....................................................................................... 10

2.1.3. Loss Modeling .................................................................................................... 12

2.1.4. Loss Model Summary ..................................................................................... 15

2.1.5. Earthquake Alerting ........................................................................................ 15

2.1.6. Building Inventory ........................................................................................... 16

2.1.7. PAGER limitations............................................................................................ 16

2.2. GLOBAL EARTHQUAKE MODEL (GEM) .................................................................. 17

2.2.1. GEM Ontology and Taxonomy .................................................................... 17

2.2.2. Global Earthquake Consequences Database ......................................... 18

2.2.3. Global Exposure Database ............................................................................ 18

2.2.4. Global Vulnerability Estimation Methods .............................................. 18

2.3. SUMMARY ........................................................................................................................... 19

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3. DATA LAYERS AND ANALYSIS .............................................................. 22

3.1. EARTHQUAKE HAZARD ................................................................................................ 22

3.1.1. Introduction ....................................................................................................... 22

3.1.2. Past seismicity ................................................................................................... 23

3.1.3. The largest earthquakes ................................................................................ 25

3.2. BUILDING INVENTORY IN PAKISTAN .................................................................... 28

3.2.1. Statistics ............................................................................................................... 28

3.2.2. Age of the building stock ............................................................................... 28

3.2.3. Typical building types .................................................................................... 30

3.3. POPULATION CHARACTERISTICS ............................................................................ 30

3.3.1. Population density ........................................................................................... 33

3.3.2. Household size .................................................................................................. 33

3.4. SOIL CLASSIFICATIONS ................................................................................................. 34

3.4.1. Geology ................................................................................................................. 35

3.4.2. Topography ........................................................................................................ 35

3.4.3. Shear wave velocity ........................................................................................ 35

3.4.4. Soil types.............................................................................................................. 35

3.5. DISCUSSION ....................................................................................................................... 36

4. BUILDING CODE AND SEISMIC ZONING MAPS ............................ 37

4.1. BUILDING CODE ............................................................................................................... 37

4.1.1. Building code for Quetta municipality (1937) .................................... 37

4.1.2. Building code of Pakistan (1985) ............................................................. 39

4.1.3. Building code of Pakistan (2007) .............................................................. 40

4.2. SEISMIC ZONING MAPS ................................................................................................. 41

4.2.1. Development of seismic zoning maps ..................................................... 41

4.2.2. Comparison of seismic zoning maps ........................................................ 44

4.3. SUMMARY ........................................................................................................................... 46

5. EMPIRICAL VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT ................................. 48

5.1. INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................... 48

5.2. VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGIES .......................................... 48

5.2.1. Damage probability matrices ...................................................................... 48

5.2.2. Vulnerability functions .................................................................................. 49

5.3. EUROPEAN MACROSEISMIC SCALE -1998 (EMS-98) ...................................... 49

5.3.1. Factors affecting vulnerability .................................................................... 50

5.4. FIELD SURVEYS IN PAKISTAN ................................................................................... 52

5.4.1. Micro level ........................................................................................................... 53

5.4.2. Macro level .......................................................................................................... 56

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5.5. VULNERABILTY ASSESSMENT................................................................................... 57

5.5.1. Building type distribution ............................................................................ 57

5.5.2. Vulnerability class distribution .................................................................. 60

5.5.3. Mean Vulnerability Index (MVI) ................................................................ 61

5.6. RECONSTRUCTION AFTER 2005 KASHMIR EARTHQUAKE .......................... 62

5.7. SUMMARY ........................................................................................................................... 69

6. VULNERABILITY OF REINFORCED CONCRETE STRUCTURES

71

6.1. INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................... 71

6.2. VULNERABILITY FUNCTIONS .................................................................................... 72

6.2.1. Capacity of a building ..................................................................................... 72

6.2.2. Earthquake demand ........................................................................................ 72

6.3. ANALYSIS PROCEDURES .............................................................................................. 73

6.4. PUSH OVER ANALYSIS ................................................................................................... 74

6.5. STRUCTURAL VULNERABILITY OF RC BUILDING IN PAKISTAN ................ 75

6.6. CAPACITY CURVES FROM PUSHOVER ANALYSIS .............................................. 78

6.7. SUMMARY ........................................................................................................................... 78

7. DAMAGE SCENARIOS ................................................................................. 80

7.1. SELECTION OF SCENARIOS ......................................................................................... 80

7.2. METHODOLOGY ............................................................................................................... 81

7.2.1. Identification of building typology ........................................................... 83

7.2.2. Assessment of Vulnerability Classes ........................................................ 83

7.2.3. Selection of scenario earthquakes ............................................................ 83

7.2.4. Damage estimation .......................................................................................... 83

7.3. OBSERVED DAMAGE IN 1935 QUETTA EARTHQUAKE ................................. 85

7.4. OBSERVED DAMAGE IN 2005 KASHMIR EARTHQUAKE ................................ 86

7.4.1. Damage to reinforced concrete (RC) frame structures .................... 88

7.4.2. Damage to masonry structures .................................................................. 91

7.5. OBSERVED DAMAGE IN 2008 BALUCHISTAN EARTHQUAKE .................... 93

7.6. DAMAGE ASSESSMENT FOR SELECTED SCENARIOS ....................................... 98

7.6.1. Micro Level - Muzaffarabad ......................................................................... 99

7.6.2. Meso Level - Northern Pakistan ............................................................... 100

7.6.3. Macro Level - South-Western and Northern Pakistan .................... 104

7.7. DISCUSSION ..................................................................................................................... 108

Table of Contents

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8. SOCIAL CONSEQUENCES-FATALITIES AND INJURIES........... 111

8.1. INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................. 111

8.2. STATE OF THE ART....................................................................................................... 111

8.3. ESTIMATION METHODOLOGIES ............................................................................. 115

8.4. FACTORS AFFECTING CASUALTY ESTIMATION .............................................. 118

8.5. CASUALTY ESTIMATION FOR PAKISTAN............................................................ 120

8.5.1. Coburn and Spence Casualty Model (CSCM) – 1992 ....................... 121

8.5.2. Vulnerability-Based Casualty Model (VBCM) ..................................... 123

8.6. DISCUSSION ..................................................................................................................... 132

9. LANDSLIDES ................................................................................................ 134

9.1. INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................. 134

9.2. LANDSLIDE RISK ASSESSMENT .............................................................................. 135

9.2.1. Landslide risk .................................................................................................. 135

9.2.2. Risk assessment procedure ....................................................................... 136

9.2.3. Related difficulties ......................................................................................... 136

9.3. LANDSLIDE SUCEPTIBILITY ZONATION ............................................................. 138

9.4. FACTORS CONTRIBUTING TOWARDS LANDSLIDE HAZARD ..................... 138

9.4.1. Topography ...................................................................................................... 138

9.4.2. Geology ............................................................................................................... 140

9.4.3. Land use ............................................................................................................. 140

9.4.4. Climate ................................................................................................................ 141

9.4.5. Human factor ................................................................................................... 142

9.5. RESULTS ............................................................................................................................ 144

9.6. REMEDIAL MEASURES ................................................................................................ 145

9.7. SUMMARY ......................................................................................................................... 146

10. GLOBAL RISK ASSESSMENT: EXTRAPOLATION TO INDIA 147

10.1. INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................. 147

10.2. SEISMICTIY OF INDIA .................................................................................................. 147

10.2.1. 1988 Bihar earthquake ................................................................................ 147

10.2.2. 1991 Uttarkashi earthquake ..................................................................... 147

10.2.3. 1993 Killari earthquake .............................................................................. 148

10.2.4. 1997 Jabalpur earthquake.......................................................................... 148

10.2.5. 1999 Chamoli earthquake .......................................................................... 149

10.2.6. 2001 Bhuj earthquake ................................................................................. 149

10.3. POPULATION CHARACTERISTICS .......................................................................... 150

10.4. BUILDING CODE OF INDIA ......................................................................................... 150

10.5. SEISMIC HAZARD MAPS OF INDIA ......................................................................... 152

10.5.1. Seismic hazard map - 1933 Edition ........................................................ 152

10.5.2. Seismic hazard map - 1962 Edition ........................................................ 152

10.5.3. Seismic hazard map - 1966 Edition ........................................................ 153

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10.5.4. Seismic hazard map - 1970 Edition ........................................................ 153

10.5.5. Seismic hazard map - 2002 Edition ........................................................ 153

10.5.6. Seismic hazard map – GSHAP 1999 ........................................................ 153

10.6. BUILDING STOCK OF INDIA ...................................................................................... 155

10.6.1. Mud/adobe structures ................................................................................. 155

10.6.2. Rubble stone masonry structures ........................................................... 155

10.6.3. Brick and Concrete Block Masonry structures .................................. 155

10.6.4. Reinforced Concrete Frame structures ................................................. 155

10.6.5. Timber structures .......................................................................................... 156

10.7. Building vulnerability Assessment ......................................................................... 160

10.8. SUMMARY ......................................................................................................................... 161

11. SUMMARY AND FUTURE DEVELOPMENTS ................................ 162

11.1. SUMMARY ......................................................................................................................... 162

11.1.1. Building code and seismic zoning maps ............................................... 162

11.1.2. Field surveys .................................................................................................... 162

11.1.3. Typical building types .................................................................................. 163

11.1.4. Empirical Vulnerability Assessment ...................................................... 163

11.1.5. Unknown capacity of reinforced concrete structures .................... 163

11.1.6. Damage scenarios .......................................................................................... 163

11.1.7. Reconstruction after 2005 Kashmir earthquake .............................. 164

11.1.8. Human causality estimation ...................................................................... 164

11.1.9. Landslides ......................................................................................................... 164

11.2. FURTHER DEVELOPMENTS ...................................................................................... 165

REFERENCES ........................................................................................................ 166

APPENDIX A: STATISTICAL DATA ............................................................ 177

APPENDIX B: EUROPEAN MACROSEISMIC SCALE - 1998 ............ 190

APPENDIX C: 2005 KASHMIR EARTHQUAKE – DAMAGES .......... 197

APPENDIX D: 2005 EARTHQUAKE -RECONSTRUCTION .............. 204

APPENDIX E: CAPACITY CURVES .............................................................. 211

APPENDIX F: 2008 BALUCHISTAN EARTHQUAKE–DAMAGES . 213

DECLARATION..................................................................................................... 216

CURRICULAM VITAE ........................................................................................ 217

List of Figures

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LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 1.1: Earthquake risk assessment methodology ...................................................................................... 4 Figure 1.2: Overview of methodology adopted by the present study ......................................................... 8

Figure 2.1: Basic PAGER flowchart for operation, calibration and loss estimation ........................... 11 Figure 2.2: PAGER report for 2008 Baluchistan earthquake ........................................................................ 13 Figure 2.3: PAGER report for 2010 Haiti earthquake ...................................................................................... 14 Figure 2.4: GEM components ...................................................................................................................................... 17 Figure 2.5: Overview of PAGER methodology ..................................................................................................... 20

Figure 3.1: Year wise seismicity (above M5.0) in Pakistan from 1960 to 2007 .................................. 23 Figure 3.2: Spatial distribution of past seismicity in Pakistan ..................................................................... 24 Figure 3.3: Depth of past seismicity in Pakistan ................................................................................................ 24 Figure 3.4: Largest earthquakes in and around Pakistan M>7.0 ................................................................ 26 Figure 3.5: Age of Building stock in Pakistan ...................................................................................................... 28 Figure 3.6: Building type distribution in Pakistan ............................................................................................ 29 Figure 3.7: Population distribution by age groups ........................................................................................... 30 Figure 3.8: Distribution of population and population density in Pakistan .......................................... 33 Figure 3.9: Population distribution by age groups ........................................................................................... 33 Figure 3.10: Distribution of population in Pakistan ......................................................................................... 34 Figure 3.11: Geology, topography, shear wave velocity (Vs 30) and soil classification in Northern Pakistan ................................................................................................................................................................................ 36

Figure 4.1: Typical building types as in Building Code for Quetta Municipality .................................. 39 Figure 4.2: Seismic zoning maps of Pakistan ....................................................................................................... 42 Figure 4.3: Comparison of seismic zoning maps and Fa Factor in Pakistan ........................................... 45

Figure 5.1: Selected test areas in Pakistan ............................................................................................................ 53 Figure 5.2: Results of field survey in Muzaffarabad city ................................................................................. 55 Figure 5.3: Vulnerability Class distribution in Muzaffarabad city ............................................................. 56 Figure 5.4: Building type distribution in Pakistan ............................................................................................ 58 Figure 5.5: Mean Vulnerability Index - MVI ......................................................................................................... 61 Figure 5.6: Calibrated Mean Vulnerability Index (MVI) ................................................................................ 61 Figure 5.7: Building distribution in affected areas of 2005 Kashmir earthquake ............................... 64 Figure 5.8: Building type distribution - reconstruction only ........................................................................ 65 Figure 5.9: Building type distribution (Before reconstruction) .................................................................. 66 Figure 5.10: Building type distribution (After reconstruction) .................................................................. 67 Figure 5.11: Mean Vulnerability Index (MVI) distribution............................................................................ 68

Figure 6.1: Observed damages to RC structures in 2005 Kashmir earthquake ................................... 76 Figure 6.2: Selected frame ............................................................................................................................................ 77

Figure 7.1: Observed damage in Quetta during 1935 Quetta earthquake .............................................. 86 Figure 7.2: Observed damage to RC structures during 2005 Kashmir earthquake ........................... 87 Figure 7.3: Damage to Margalla Towers in Islamabad due to 2005 Kashmir earthquake .............. 90 Figure 7.4: Observed damage to masonry structures during 2005 Kashmir earthquake ............... 92 Figure 7.5: Damage due to 2005 Kashmir earthquake .................................................................................... 93

List of Figures

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Figure 7.6: Map of location and affected areas in 2005 Kashmir and 2008 Baluchistan earthquake .......................................................................................................................................................................... 93 Figure 7.7: Affected population and damaged buildings due to 2008 earthquake............................. 94 Figure 7.8: Deaths and injuries due to 2008 Baluchistan earthquake ..................................................... 95 Figure 7.9: Observed damage due to 2008 Baluchistan earthquake ........................................................ 96 Figure 7.10: Observed damage during 2008 Baluchistan earthquake ..................................................... 97 Figure 7.11: Undamaged structures after 2008 Baluchistan earthquake ............................................... 98 Figure 7.12: Micro level scenario in Muzaffarabad city .................................................................................. 99 Figure 7.13: Location map of meso scale study ............................................................................................... 100 Figure 7.14: Mean Damage Grade (Dm) and Building Value Loss distribution 2005 ...................... 101 Figure 7.15: Mean Damage Grade (Dm) and Building Value Loss distribution 2005 After Shock ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 102 Figure 7.16: Mean Damage Grade (Dm) and Building Value Loss distribution 1974 ...................... 103 Figure 7.17: Intensity and damage prognosis for historic earthquakes in Pakistan - Mastung and surrounding region ...................................................................................................................................................... 105 Figure 7.18: Intensity and damage prognosis for historic earthquakes in Pakistan – Kashmir and surrounding region ...................................................................................................................................................... 106 Figure 7.19: Intensity and damage prognosis for historic earthquakes in Pakistan – Quetta and surrounding region ...................................................................................................................................................... 107

Figure 8.1: Ratio of disability due to spatial disorder physical confinement ..................................... 112 Figure 8.2: Fatalities and building types: 1999 Chi-Chi Taiwan earthquake ..................................... 113 Figure 8.3: Earthquake-induced secondary hazards between 1968 and 2008................................. 115 Figure 8.4: Factors influencing the number of people killed per building .......................................... 116 Figure 8.5: Scheme of vulnerability-based human casualty estimation ............................................... 124 Figure 8.6: Social settings of population and vulnerability of building stock (MVI) in affected districts of NWFP .......................................................................................................................................................... 126 Figure 8.7: Fatality estimation (percentage of the district population) in the affected districts of 2005 Kashmir earthquake ........................................................................................................................................ 128 Figure 8.8: Fatality estimation in the affected districts of 2005 Kashmir earthquake .................. 129 Figure 8.9: Injury estimation (percentage of the district population) in day scenario in affected districts of 2005 Kashmir earthquake ................................................................................................................. 130 Figure 8.10: Injury estimation (percentage of the district population) in night scenario in affected districts of 2005 Kashmir earthquake ............................................................................................... 131 Figure 8.11: Distribution of Pakistani population in age groups ............................................................. 133

Figure 9.1: Damage due to landslides .................................................................................................................. 135 Figure 9.2: Schematic representation of landslide risk assessment methodology .......................... 137 Figure 9.3: Topography of the affected area of 2005 Kashmir earthquake) ...................................... 139 Figure 9.4: 3D topographical model of the study area of Muzaffarabad District ............................. 139 Figure 9.5: Slope, elevation, river, road & landslide locations .................................................................. 140 Figure 9.6: Geology of the study area of Muzaffarabad District ............................................................... 141 Figure 9.7: Road damages and blockage ............................................................................................................. 142 Figure 9.8: Damage to buildings near landslides ............................................................................................ 143 Figure 9.9: 3D model of the study area ............................................................................................................... 145

Figure 10.1: Population characteristics in India with urban and rural division ............................... 151 Figure 10.2: Seismic hazard maps generation in India ................................................................................ 154 Figure 10.3: Building type distribution in India .............................................................................................. 156 Figure 10.4: Building type distribution according to material used in walls ..................................... 157 Figure 10.5: Building type distribution according to material used in roof ....................................... 158 Figure 10.6: Number of rooms in a building ..................................................................................................... 159 Figure 10.7: Mean Vulnerability Index (MVI) ................................................................................................... 160

Figure A.1: Population distribution by selected age group ........................................................................ 178 Figure A.2: Percentage of rural localities by population size .................................................................... 179 Figure A.3: Population distribution by household size ................................................................................ 180 Figure A.4: Owned housing units by period of construction and number of rooms ....................... 184

List of Figures

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Figure A.5: Owned housing units by period of construction and material ......................................... 185 Figure A.6: Source of information for households ......................................................................................... 186 Figure A.7: Distribution of typical building types in urban & rural area ............................................. 188 Figure A.8: Distribution of population, buildings & vulnerability ........................................................... 189

Figure C. 1: Damages to reinforced concrete structures in 2005 Kashmir earthquake ................ 197 Figure C.2: Damages to reinforced concrete structures in 2005 Kashmir earthquake ................. 198 Figure C.3: Damages to masonry structures in 2005 Kashmir earthquake ........................................ 199 Figure C.4: Damages to roads in 2005 Kashmir earthquake ..................................................................... 202 Figure C.5: Damages to bridges in 2005 Kashmir earthquake ................................................................. 203

Figure D.1: Typical building type distribution in affected areas of 2005 Kashmir earthquake . 204 Figure D.2: Mean Damage Grade (Dm) and Building Value Loss - 1981 earthquake scenario .... 205 Figure D.3: Mean Damage Grade (Dm) and Building Value Loss - 2002 earthquake scenario .... 206 Figure D.4: Mean Damage Grade (Dm) and Building Value Loss - Intensity X (I*=Io+1) earthquake scenario ............................................................................................................................................................................. 207 Figure D.5: Fatalities and injuries distribution according to Coburn & Spence 1992 .................... 208 Figure D.6: Injuries distribution according to Coburn & Spence 1992 ................................................. 209

Figure F.1: Typical building types in Baluchistan region ............................................................................ 213 Figure F.2: Damages to masonry structures in 2008 Baluchistan earthquake ................................. 214 Figure F.3: Damages to mud structures in 2008 Baluchistan earthquake .......................................... 215