Economy & Rates Rate/Eco Rate August.pdfaccounts, we estimate the rise in global GDP in Q2 at 2.6% q-o-q on an annualized basis, after 2.8% in Q1 2015 and 2.5% in Q4 2014. The figure

Economy & Rates

August 2015 (data and charts updated on 21 August 2015)

Bruno Cavalier - Chief Economist, [email protected], 33.(0)1.44.51.81.35

Fabien Bossy - Economist, [email protected], 33.(0)1.44.51.85.38

Black box and fixed points

Table of forecasts pages 10-11

Statistical and chart appendix pages 13-37

“Economics is a mystery.” (Michel Houellebecq, Platform)

Strictly confidential

2

• As we headed off on our summer break we wondered what was happening in Greece. Now that we’re back, we’re wondering what’s happening in China.

This latest uncertainty harbours far greater potential consequences. First, China represents a sizeable chunk of the global economy, around 15% of world

GDP (i.e. around 60 times the size of Greece's economy), but its weight is even greater in a number of areas such as population, demand for commodities,

industry. Nothing that happens in China can leave the rest of the world indifferent. Second, China's economy is a black box the opacity of which is

deliberately maintained by the government, if not to deliberately mislead foreign observers then to keep them in the dark. This is a characteristic shared by

all authoritarian regimes and the sign of a relatively uncooperative attitude in international relations, whether of an economic or non-economic nature.

• The Chinese government's recent decision concerning its currency regime is a typical example of this opacity. This announcement, presented as a

technical modification of the daily fixing calculation, was made in the middle of the summer when markets, less liquid than usual, are notoriously likely to

overreact. Why this date? Who knows? More serious still, it is difficult to understand the Chinese government's real reasons for this move. The

commentariat immediately spoke of a "devaluation" of China's currency and a "currency war", aimed at revitalizing an economy which is considerably

weaker than hitherto thought. But, in this case, it is still hard to explain why, after a decline of 3% in two days, China's central bank began intervening

massively to avert an additional depreciation of its currency. Regrets? Surely not. A miscalculation of the impact on markets? This is worrying. In any

case, the lack of clarity on the targets pursued is blatant and can only stoke the most alarmist theories.

• The return from holidays for everyone is characterized by one persistent question: Where is global growth heading? To answer this question, we must first

establish where things stand at present before subsequently identifying a number of fixed points for the near future. On the basis of available national

accounts, we estimate the rise in global GDP in Q2 at 2.6% q-o-q on an annualized basis, after 2.8% in Q1 2015 and 2.5% in Q4 2014. The figure was slightly

higher than 3% in 2013 and 2014. Whilst the situation is undeniably unfavorable and deteriorating rapidly in various countries (Brazil, Russia, and other

commodity-producing regions), note that the US economy has picked up sharply following its slump at the start of the year and that Europe is pursuing its

slow recovery. There is no global deceleration, but symmetrically, nor is there an acceleration, which is disappointing with regard to market expectations.

• Where to find some fixed points? First, in the US. The labor market is at full-employment, household consumption started Q3 on a strong footing, the

residential housing sector is surprising on the upside. The black spots, as elsewhere in the world, are the industrial sector and especially the extractive

sector. Inflation is low – but, in our view, temporarily low– and this is the only reason that the Fed can invoke for not abandoning its zero-interest rate

policy (ZIRP). Until the eve of the next FOMC, on 17 September, the Fed is likely to maintain a degree of ambiguity on its intentions. We continue to think

that the Fed is wrong to maintain its ZIRP and we fear that should it further postpone the decision to exit this strategy, the market will interpret its decision

negatively. To a lesser extent than the US, Europe is also a positive contributor to global growth. The very slight disappointment on Q2 growth is

inconsequential. The support factors for the recovery remain present: low interest rates, low oil price, low euro, loose policy-mix. At this stage the business

climate has absorbed without any damage some six months of uncertainty on Greece (which eased for a period) and a few weeks of turmoil in emerging

markets. On the negative side, it seems clear that the overall situation for emerging countries is set to remain weak in the short term. This leaves China as

the unknown quantity. If the Chinese government manages to control the economic slowdown as it has done since 2011, the global consequences will be

modest. If it decides to radically accelerate the economic transition and therefore the industrial overcapacity purge, then the outcome will be significantly

different. Pending greater details, we retain the first working assumption as our baseline scenario.

Summary Black box and fixed points


[Date]

3

The surprise of summer 2015: the "devaluation" of China's currency China has changed the way in which its currency will be quoted, leaving greater room for market forces. Given the

current economic slowdown, this is tending to allow the currency to depreciate. The reasons for this decision remain

unclear: currency war or financial reform? This is a destabilizing factor for other emerging countries.

Sources: Thomson Reuters, BIS, Oddo Securities.

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

81 84 87 90 93 96 99 02 05 08 11 14

1USD = …CNY

Jan.94: devaluation (33% overnight)

July.2005: end of peg

Asian crisis

Greatrecession

• Changes to the fixing of China's currency (11 August)

• Context: the decision comes after the publication of an

IMF report (4 August) calling for continued financial

reforms before integrating the CNY into the SDR basket

• Aim: to leave greater room for market forces in

determining the exchange rate for the yuan

• Immediate effect: depreciation of c.3% vs USD

• Reaction: interventions by the PBoC to support (and not

weaken) its currency.

• An historical overview

• Since abandoning the peg (2005), the yuan has

appreciated by 25% vs USD. China's currency is at its

fair value according to the IMF

• In one year, the yuan's effective exchange rate (vs

basket of currencies) has appreciated by 15%.

• Possible reasons

a) China is targeting a devaluation of its currency to boost

its exports ("currency war")

b) China continues to free up its (FX) markets to cement

its economic and financial power.

• Possible implications

• Market volatility, amplification of the slowdown

• Destabilization of emerging-market currencies

• Deflationary pressure on the rest of the world

• Postponing of rate hike by the Fed

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

2010=100 China: real effective exchange rate

+15% y/y (appreciation)

6.0

6.2

6.4

6.6

6.8

11 12 13 14 15

1US$ = …CNY (renminbi)

CNY weaker vs USD


[Date]

4

Sources: Thomson Reuters, Oddo Securities

• Global growth slowed by emerging markets

• Global growth = 2.6% q-o-q annualized in Q2, despite the rebound in

growth in the US and the relative stability of Eurozone growth

• The pace of deceleration of China's economy is a subject of debate

• The recession is deepening in Brazil and Russia.

• Causes of the recent weakening of emerging countries

• Structural cause (1): demographics

• Structural cause (2): productivity

• Cyclical cause (1): global trade, commodity prices

• Cyclical cause (2): (FX) market turbulence

• Cyclical cause (3): tightening of the policy-mix

Global growth: deceleration in emerging markets Global GDP growth is <3% annualized for the past three quarters, below expectations, which are, consequently,

revised slightly downwards. For the most part, the nasty surprises concern emerging countries, commodity-producing

countries (Russia, Brazil) and/or areas exposed to the slowing of the Chinese cycle (Asia, LatAm).

ChinaIndia

Indo.

Korea

Brazil

Mexico

Russia

PolandEMERGING

US

EMU

Japan

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0

avg. growth Q2 13-Q2 15

avg. growth 2000-2007

Real GDP growth: pre-crisis vs current

below the 45 line, growth weaker than pre-crisis

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

09 10 11 12 13 14 15

q/q% (annual rate)

World real GDP quarterly growth

Q1

20

09:

-5%

ou

r e

stim

ate

fo

r Q

2

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

10 11 12 13 14 15

y/y%

date of forecast

EMU growth consensus forecasts*

* 12-month forward growth

97-07 = 2.3% p.a.

* weighted average of f'casts for current and next years


[Date]

5

Business climate: good level, with marked dispersions Despite the downward risk on global growth, the business climate remains at an average level, which does not signal

the imminence of a brutal slump. The weakening of business sentiment is mostly affecting the manufacturing sector,

and has reached alarming rates in some countries (Brazil, Greece).


THE GOOD

THE BAD

THE UGLY

30

35

40

45

50

55

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

points Greece: PMI-manufacturing

35

40

45

50

55

60

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

points World business confidence (output index)*

* manufacturing + services

average post-crisis

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

points US ISM/PMI non-manufacturing

PMI

ISM

35

40

45

50

55

60

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

points China: PMI-manufacturing

HSBC/Caixinindex


6

Fed: when patience is no longer a virtue The Fed appears to be looking for reasons to not hike its interest rates,

e.g., the low inflation rate (skewed by energy prices). This "wait-and-see "

attitude is a cause of uncertainty and places the Fed's credibility at risk.


0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

1=Dec.07 US: "Yellen index" of job market conditions*

retracementrecession

* based on long-term unempl., quits,job openings and part-time unempl. for economic reason

Start of the tightening cycle in… Jan.1987 Feb.1994 June 99 June 2004 ?

Fed Funds level % 5.88 3.00 4.75 1.00 0.25

- in real terms (deflated by PCE inflation) % 4.4 0.9 3.4 -1.8 -0.1 (*)

Unemployment rate % LF 6.6 6.6 4.3 5.6 5.3 (*)

- change over 12 months % pt -0.1 -0.6 -0.2 -0.7 -0.9 (*)

PCE inflation y/y% 1.5 2.1 1.4 2.8 0.3 (*)

Core CPI inflation y/y% 3.6 2.8 2.0 1.9 1.8 (*)

Prior recession ends in… Nov.1982 March 1991 - Nov.2001 June 2009

Duration since end of recession months 50 35 - 31 74 (*)

End of the tightening cycle in… May 1989 Feb.1995 May 2000 June 2006 ?

Fed Funds level % 9.81 6.00 6.50 5.25 ?

Next recession starts in… July 1990 - March 2001 Dec.2007 ?

Duration since end of tightening cycle months 14 - 10 18 ?

US: cycles of monetary tightening

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

indexUS dollar effective exchange rate

2005-2014 average


7

Oil: winners and losers Excess supply in the oil market is growing, taking prices back to their

recent lows. This has a dual macro effect: 1) downward pressure on

inflation, 2) winners/losers transfers (positive in net terms).


• Oil market in excess supply situation

• Demand factor: slowdown in China + emerging countries

• Supply factor: firmness of Saudi Arabia, prospects of an agreement to

end sanctions against Iran

• Differentiated macro effects depending on the timeline and country

• Immediate negative impact on inflation

• Transfer of resources between producers and consumers

• Cf. our Economic report of January 2015 "Black gold. Green light for

growth. Red alert on inflation"

30

50

70

90

110

130

12 13 14 15

per barrel Brent in USD Brent in EUR

-58%

-50%

PPP $ Current $

Some winners % GDP

- US 16.3 22.4 0.9

- EMU 12.0 17.1 1.5

- China 16.5 13.3 1.3

- Japan 6.8 6.1 2.1

- India 6.8 2.6 2.8

- S.Korea 1.7 1.9 3.6

Some losers

- Russia 3.3 2.7 -8.1

- Canada 1.5 2.3 -2.1

- Mexico 2.0 1.7 -1.5

- S.Arabia 1.5 1.0 -25.6

- Nigeria 1.0 0.8 -8.0

- Norway 0.3 0.7 -7.2

- Iran 1.2 0.5 -7.6

* based on supply/demand balance of petro leum products (US EIA data)

Net gain/loss*

(w ith current oil price drop)

% world GDP

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

Commodity prices (rebased at 100 in Jan.1990)

Industrials (CRB)

Foodstuff (CRB)


8

Europe: at this stage, resilient to shocks Combination of positive external (weak euro, low oil price) and internal

(policy-mix, low interest rates, credit) factors. The scenario of an

acceleration assumes a gradual pick-up in investment


• Macro risks

• The deflation scenario is not zero (risk of negative inflation in August-

September) but down sharply since the launch of the ECB's QE

• The main engine of growth is domestic (households’ consumption).

Exporters' exposure to the Chinese slowdown.

• Political risks

• Greece: financial agreement, political instability (see next slide)

• Spain: regional elections (Catalonia, September) and general

elections (December). Uncertainty on next majority.

0

2

4

6

8

10

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

[0-10] EMU: deflation vulnerability risk

EMU core EMU periphery

high risk

moderate risk

-3.0

-2.5

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

32

35

38

41

44

47

50

53

56

59

62

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

EMU PMI-composite output GDP growth (q/q%, rhs)

-40

-35

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

bal.opinion EMU: consumer buying intentions (current)

long-term average


9

Greece: a further € 86bn, to what end? Alexis Tsipras' 180 turn enabled him to secure a 3rd bailout and avoid

Grexit in the short term. Greece's economy and banking sector are

ravaged. Fresh elections will take place in a month's time

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

st.dev Greece: economic sentiment index*

* normalised index at 0 over 1990-2007

financial crisis

debt crisis haircut

politicalcrisis

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

bn EUR Greece : deposits of private sector in MFI *

*MFI: monetary financial institutions

financial crisis

debt crisis

haircut

politicalcrisis

Sources: Thomson Reuters, Bloomberg, Oddo Securities

• Mr Tripras' complete capitulation after his "victory" in the referendum

• Approval of a 3rd bailout plan (€ 86bn over 2015-2018) enabling

Greece to avert defaulting on its repayments to the ECB and IMF

• Areas of uncertainty

• Conditions of the IMF's participation (debate on debt restructuring)

• Impact on the economy (stimulus vs depression)

• Domestic political situation

300

600

900

1200

1500

1800

2100

14 15

bp Greece: 10Y interest rate spread vs Bund

Syriza v

icto

ry

Refe

rendum

3rd

bailo

ut


[Date]

10

Table of forecasts (1)

Source: Consensus Forecasts, Bloomberg, Oddo Securities.

2014 2015 2016 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2015 2016

World 3.4 3.0 3.0

US 2.4 2.3 2.6 -0.9 4.6 4.3 2.1 0.6 2.3 3.0 2.7 2.3 2.7

EMU 0.9 1.5 2.2 0.9 0.4 0.7 1.4 1.5 1.2 2.5 2.4 1.5 1.8

- Germany 1.6 1.7 2.4 2.9 -0.2 0.8 2.5 1.4 1.8 2.6 2.4 1.9 2.0

- France 0.2 1.2 1.7 -0.7 -0.5 0.9 0.4 2.7 0.0 2.0 2.0 1.2 1.6

- Italy -0.4 0.7 1.4 -0.7 -0.8 -0.3 0.1 1.2 0.7 1.5 1.5 0.7 1.2

- Spain 1.4 3.1 2.6 1.2 2.1 2.1 2.7 3.8 4.0 3.0 2.5 3.0 2.6

UK 3.0 2.6 2.4 3.6 3.7 2.9 3.4 1.5 2.8 2.4 2.4 2.6 2.5

Japan -0.1 0.6 1.0 4.5 -7.5 -1.3 1.4 4.5 -1.6 1.0 1.0 0.8 1.7

China (y/y%) 7.4 6.6 6.0 7.4 7.5 7.3 7.3 7.0 7.0 6.2 6.2 6.9 6.7

* y/y or q/q annualised rate **10 August 2015

FORECASTS - REAL GDP GROWTH*

Consensus**Average 20152014

High Low 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Policy rate

Fed funds 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.35 1.21

ECB Refi 1.50 0.05 1.25 0.88 0.54 0.16 0.05 0.05

10Y rate

US T-note 3.6 1.5 2.8 1.8 2.4 2.5 2.2 2.9

German Bund 3.4 0.2 2.6 1.6 1.6 1.2 0.6 1.3

French OAT 3.7 0.4 3.3 2.5 2.2 1.7 0.9 1.6

Forex

EUR/USD 1.45 1.08 1.39 1.29 1.33 1.33 1.12 1.14

USD/JPY 124 77 80 80 98 106 122 121

USD/RMB 6.74 6.05 6.47 6.31 6.15 6.16 6.27 6.39

*monthly average

2.1

0.6

0.25

1.15

FORECASTS - RATES & FX

0.05

Actual

21/08/2015

Last 5 years* Average

0.05

1.25

0.05

1.0 1.1 1.8

-

1.13

122

6.39 6.40

Target

3M 12M

-

-

2.3

0.8

0.50

120

3.3

1.5


[Date]

11

Table of forecasts (2)

Source: Oddo Securities.

2014 2015 2016 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

United States

Real GDP 2.4 2.3 2.6 -0.9 4.6 4.3 2.1 0.6 2.3 3.0 2.7

Private Consumption 2.7 3.0 2.6 1.3 3.8 3.5 4.3 1.7 2.9 3.0 2.7

Nonresidential Investment 6.2 2.7 4.6 8.3 4.4 9.0 0.7 1.6 -0.6 5.0 5.0

Residential Investment 1.8 8.0 6.3 -2.7 10.4 3.4 9.9 10.1 6.6 7.0 7.0

Domestic Demand (contribution, %pt) 2.6 2.7 2.7 1.8 3.7 4.0 3.0 1.7 2.3 3.0 2.9

Inventories (contribution, %pt) 0.0 0.3 0.0 -1.3 1.0 0.1 0.0 0.9 -0.1 0.0 0.0

Net Exports (contribution, %pt) -0.2 -0.6 -0.1 -1.3 -0.2 0.4 -0.9 -1.9 0.1 -0.1 -0.1

Inflation (CPI, % yoy) 1.6 0.4 2.3 1.4 2.1 1.8 1.2 -0.1 0.0 0.3 1.3

Unemployment rate (%) 6.2 5.3 4.7 6.6 6.2 6.1 5.7 5.6 5.4 5.2 5.0

Euro area

Real GDP 0.9 1.5 2.2 0.9 0.4 0.7 1.4 1.5 1.2 2.5 2.4

Private Consumption 1.0 1.8 2.0 1.1 1.1 2.0 1.8 1.9 1.4 2.1 2.0

Investment 1.2 1.8 3.3 1.9 -2.0 0.6 1.5 3.1 1.4 2.7 3.3

Domestic Demand (contribution, %pt) 0.9 1.6 1.9 1.1 0.4 1.4 1.4 2.1 1.3 1.9 1.9

Inventories (contribution, %pt) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 0.0 0.2 -0.6 0.1 0.1

Net Exports (contribution, %pt) 0.0 0.0 0.3 -0.2 0.3 -0.3 0.1 -0.9 0.6 0.5 0.4

Inflation (HICP, % yoy) 0.4 0.1 1.5 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.2 -0.3 0.2 0.1 0.5


France

Real GDP 0.2 1.2 1.7 -0.7 -0.5 0.9 0.4 2.7 0.0 2.0 2.0

Private Consumption 0.7 1.9 1.7 -1.6 1.7 1.7 1.0 3.7 0.5 2.0 2.0

Investment -1.2 -0.6 1.6 -2.7 -2.4 -1.7 -1.2 0.2 -1.3 1.0 1.5

Domestic Demand (contribution, %pt) 0.5 1.3 1.5 -1.1 0.8 1.0 0.8 2.6 0.4 1.6 1.7

Inventories (contribution, %pt) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.3 -0.2 0.9 -1.3 1.6 -1.8 0.0 0.0

Net Exports (contribution, %pt) -0.5 0.0 0.3 -0.6 -1.1 -0.9 1.0 -1.1 1.3 0.4 0.2

Inflation (HICP, % yoy) 0.6 0.2 1.6 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.3 -0.2 0.3 0.2 0.6


* y/y or q/q annualised rate

FORECASTS - KEY MACRO DATA for US, EMU, & France *

Average 20152014


Recently published Oddo Economic Research Visit our new Economic Research website: https://www.oddosecurities.com/#economy

Eco notes

The he euro is dead. Long live the euro 2.0! (July 9, 2015)

The bright side of rising bond yields (June 12, 2015)

Ready for lift-off... fasten your seatbelts (May 13, 2015)

Give credit to the European recovery (April 17, 2015)

Buy Europe (March 13, 2015)

Forget Greece and think about the Fed (February 13, 2015)

Black gold – Green light for growth – Red alert on inflation (Jan.15, 2015)

Ready for lift-off... fasten your seatbelts (May 13, 2015)

Black gold – Green light for growth – Red alert on inflation (Jan.15, 2015)

Reflation: passing the baton (September 11, 2014)

Manufacturing in a low pressure world (June 5, 2014)

A low pressure economy (May 14, 2014)

Impact of euro depreciation on tourism in Europe (July 24, 2015)

Buy Europe (part two) (July 21, 2015)

Convergence in Europe: we can't see the woods for the Greek tree (July 8, 2015)

Bitter victory for the Greek government (July 6, 2015)

In reality, Grexit has already started (June 29, 2015)

Which speedometer should we use to measure US growth? (June 24, 2015)

Athens, Venezuela? (June 19, 2015)

For whom is the ECB conducting its zero interest-rate policy? (June 18, 2015)

Eurozone: time to ramp up equipment investment (June 4, 2015)

The ECB’s QE: the questions in debate (May 28, 2015)

European growth: traction and extension (May 13, 2015)

Greek default: the contagion channels are blocked (April 22, 2015)

A brief history of the Fed’s “mistakes” (April 14, 2015)

The ECB is taking back control of its balance sheet (March 31, 2015)

Green shoots in the Eurozone credit cycle (March 26, 2015)

Housing in the Eurozone: end of the tunnel (March 25, 2015)

Economy & Rates (monthly)

Economic Report

Economic calendar (weekly)

12

Focus France (twice a month)

Business climate in France back to normal (July 22, 2015)

What reflection of the Greek crisis in France? (July 1st, 2015)

French economy in the face of interest-rate risk (June 16, 2015)

French growth desperately lacking employment (June 2, 2015)

Demography: one of France’s economic strengths (May 19, 2015)

Risk clouding France has evaporated (May 5, 2015)

Focus US (weekly)

Fed: beyond a reasonable doubt (August 21, 2015)

US: a golden era for employees? (July 31, 2015)

Duration of the US business cycle and monetary policy (July 24, 2015)

What risks are facing the US economy in the second half? (July 10, 2015)

Should we doubt the US consumer? (July 3, 2015)

https://www.oddosecurities.com/#economy


[Date]

13

Statistical and chart Appendix

List of appendices

1. Real GDP growth in the major countries (% quarterly change)

2. Contributions to real GDP growth: G7 countries

3. Real GDP growth: G7 countries + China

4. Real GDP growth: countries of Asia excl. China-Japan (selection)

5. Real GDP growth: other countries (selection)

6. Industrial production: G7 + emerging countries (selection)

7. Consumer price inflation: G7 countries + China

8. Consumer price inflation: emerging countries (selection)

9. Unemployment rates: G7 countries

10. Purchasing managers’ confidence (PMI indices): G7 + BRIC countries

11. Consumer confidence: developed countries (selection)

12. Car sales: G7 countries + China + Brazil

13. Central bank policy rates: developed countries (selection)

14. Central bank policy rates: emerging countries (selection)

15. Central bank balance sheets: developed countries (selection)

16. Currency reserves: world and principal holders

17. Current account balances: G7 countries + China

18. Current account balances: emerging countries (selection)

19. Exchange rates against the EUR or USD: major currencies

20. Government debt (as % of GDP): European countries (selection)

21. Sovereign ratings: European countries (selection)

22. Bank financing by the Eurosystem

23. Bank loans to the private sector: European countries (selection)

24. 10-year government bond yield


[Date]

14

Source : Thomson Reuters, Oddo Securities.

Appendix 1 Real GDP growth in the major countries (% quarterly change)

GDP 2014

bn $ current $ PPP $

% % Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

World * 77362 100.0 100.0 0.14 -1.54 -1.27 1.51 1.45 1.41 1.54 1.54 1.15 1.27 0.96 0.99 0.94 0.90 0.93 0.70 0.73 0.63 0.80 0.99 1.00 0.86 0.71 0.91 1.02 0.61 0.69 0.64 eDeveloped countries 42094 54.4 37.6 -0.57 -2.08 -2.17 0.04 0.30 0.87 0.59 0.97 0.67 0.44 -0.04 0.30 0.53 0.46 0.40 0.06 0.05 -0.11 0.32 0.40 0.53 0.55 0.20 0.40 0.56 0.47 0.36 0.35 e

Asia excl.Japan 16559 21.4 30.9 1.25 0.05 0.81 2.54 2.48 2.16 2.78 2.18 1.93 2.17 2.16 1.97 1.79 1.26 1.67 1.63 1.66 1.60 1.36 1.60 1.89 1.61 1.42 1.62 1.72 1.43 1.34 1.37 e

US 17419 22.5 16.1 -0.5 -2.1 -1.4 -0.1 0.3 1.0 0.4 1.0 0.7 0.6 -0.4 0.7 0.2 1.1 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.5 0.3 0.7 0.9 -0.2 1.1 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.6

EMU 13168 17.0 11.8 -0.6 -1.8 -2.9 -0.2 0.3 0.5 0.4 1.0 0.4 0.5 0.9 0.0 0.0 -0.3 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 -0.3 -0.4 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3- Germany 3860 5.0 3.4 -0.4 -2.0 -4.5 0.1 0.6 0.9 0.8 2.0 0.8 0.8 1.9 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.4 0.1 0.2 -0.5 -0.3 0.9 0.4 0.3 0.7 -0.1 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.4

- France 2847 3.7 2.4 -0.3 -1.6 -1.6 -0.1 0.1 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 1.2 -0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 -0.3 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.8 -0.1 0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.2 0.1 0.7 0.0

- Italy 2148 2.8 2.0 -1.3 -2.3 -3.0 -0.4 0.6 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.2 -0.5 -1.0 -1.0 -0.6 -0.5 -0.5 -0.9 -0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.3 0.2

Japan 4616 6.0 4.4 -1.1 -3.3 -4.0 1.7 0.1 1.7 1.5 1.1 1.5 -0.5 -1.9 -0.7 2.7 0.2 1.0 -0.5 -0.4 -0.1 1.3 0.6 0.6 -0.2 1.1 -1.9 -0.3 0.3 1.1 -0.4

UK 2945 3.8 2.4 -1.7 -2.2 -1.8 -0.3 0.2 0.4 0.5 1.0 0.6 0.0 0.5 0.2 0.7 0.0 0.1 -0.2 0.8 -0.3 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.4 0.7

Switzerland 712 0.9 0.4 0.2 -1.8 -1.4 -0.1 0.8 0.6 0.9 0.9 0.4 0.9 0.3 0.6 -0.2 0.4 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.1 1.0 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.6 0.5 -0.2 0.2 e

Canada 1789 2.3 1.5 0.7 -1.1 -2.2 -0.9 0.5 1.3 1.4 0.7 0.5 1.1 0.8 0.0 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.8 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.9 0.8 0.6 -0.1 -0.3 e

Australia 1444 1.9 1.0 0.7 -0.8 1.0 0.5 0.4 0.8 0.4 0.6 0.5 1.1 -0.4 1.3 1.2 1.0 1.1 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.7 0.4 0.8 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.5 0.9 0.7 e

China 10380 13.4 16.3 1.5 0.9 1.8 3.4 2.8 2.4 2.6 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.3 2.5 2.2 1.8 1.4 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.8 2.3 1.8 1.6 1.9 1.9 1.5 1.4 1.7

India ** 2050 2.6 6.8 1.7 0.4 0.1 1.2 1.7 2.1 3.3 2.6 2.4 2.7 2.6 2.1 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.1 1.6 1.2 1.2 1.8 1.9 1.6 1.7 1.7 2.1 1.6 1.9 1.8 e

Korea 1417 1.8 1.6 0.9 -3.3 0.1 1.5 2.8 0.4 2.2 1.7 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.6 1.0 0.9 0.9 1.1 0.5 0.8 0.3 0.8 0.3

Indonesia ** 889 1.1 2.5 1.4 0.2 1.5 0.9 1.6 1.5 2.1 2.3 1.6 1.7 1.0 1.8 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.7 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.1 1.3 1.2 1.4 0.8 1.2

Taiwan 530 0.7 1.0 -3.6 -5.1 -1.2 3.6 2.6 4.9 1.9 2.7 0.8 0.8 2.7 0.5 -0.5 -1.3 2.5 -0.2 1.7 0.2 -0.1 0.7 0.8 1.8 0.4 0.7 1.5 0.5 0.6 -1.7

Thailand 374 0.5 0.9 0.2 -2.6 -3.0 2.3 3.2 2.9 2.9 -0.4 0.6 0.4 2.2 -1.4 1.6 -6.3 9.6 1.8 0.8 2.4 0.2 -0.6 0.8 0.2 -0.8 0.7 1.0 1.1 0.3 0.4

Malaysia ** 327 0.4 0.7 0.2 -2.8 -3.7 2.6 3.0 2.4 1.8 1.4 0.1 1.6 1.7 1.2 1.5 0.8 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.9 -0.3 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.2 1.7 1.0 1.5 1.3 1.0

Philippines 285 0.4 0.6 2.2 0.0 -2.3 1.4 1.7 1.3 3.4 2.0 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.0 0.8 1.6 2.3 1.1 2.0 2.0 2.2 1.3 1.2 1.4 1.7 2.0 0.4 2.5 0.3 0.6 e

Singapore 308 0.4 0.4 -0.2 -3.6 -2.3 4.4 4.4 -0.5 8.2 5.6 -2.3 2.8 3.1 -0.1 1.6 0.0 2.3 0.6 -1.3 1.9 1.2 2.2 0.1 1.8 0.5 -0.1 0.6 1.2 1.0 -1.0

Brazil 2353 3.0 3.0 1.8 -4.1 -2.2 2.8 2.4 2.2 1.9 1.5 1.1 1.2 0.8 1.9 -0.5 0.3 0.2 0.4 1.3 0.4 0.8 1.2 0.1 0.0 0.7 -1.4 0.2 0.3 -0.2 -1.5 e

Chile 258 0.3 0.4 -0.3 -1.7 -1.2 0.5 1.7 1.5 -1.3 4.5 2.5 0.6 1.3 0.8 0.5 2.7 0.7 1.8 0.7 1.9 1.3 -0.1 1.6 -0.2 0.9 -0.1 0.3 0.8 1.1 0.0

Mexico 1283 1.7 2.0 -0.1 -1.9 -3.8 -1.0 2.1 1.7 1.3 1.3 0.9 0.8 1.1 0.8 1.5 0.7 0.8 1.5 0.3 0.9 0.6 -1.0 1.1 0.3 0.5 0.9 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.6 e

Russia ** 1857 2.4 3.3 -0.9 -4.8 -5.1 -0.4 1.5 1.1 1.9 0.8 0.1 1.7 0.8 1.0 1.6 1.2 1.0 0.5 0.3 -0.2 0.3 1.0 0.2 0.3 -0.7 1.2 0.1 -0.3 -3.0 -1.4 e

Poland 547 0.7 0.9 0.6 -0.4 1.3 0.4 0.5 1.4 0.4 1.2 1.3 0.9 1.3 1.5 0.8 1.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.9 0.7 1.0 0.7 0.9 0.8 1.0 0.9 e

Turkey 806 1.0 1.4 -0.5 -6.1 -5.6 5.1 4.1 1.3 0.7 3.1 1.2 4.6 2.5 0.6 1.2 0.8 -0.3 1.2 0.1 0.4 1.7 2.0 0.2 0.7 1.3 0.0 0.4 0.8 1.3 0.5 e

South Africa 350 0.5 0.7 0.2 -0.6 -1.6 -0.3 0.2 0.7 1.2 0.6 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.8 0.4 0.9 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.9 0.3 1.2 -0.4 0.1 0.5 1.0 0.3 0.7 e

* as usual, w orld w eighting is based on real GDP at PPP exchange rate (IMF data)

** for those countries, seasonaly-adjusted f igures by Oddo Securities

2012 2013 2014 2015

Weights 2014 Real GDP change (Q/Q non annualised, %)

2008 2009 2010 2011


[Date]

15


Appendix 2 Contributions to real GDP growth: G7 countries

Pre-crisis Crisis Post-crisis

1999-2007 Q3 08-Q2 09 2010 to date Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

US

Real GDP qoq % 0.7 -1.0 0.5 -0.5 -2.1 -1.4 -0.1 0.3 1.0 0.4 1.0 0.7 0.6 -0.4 0.7 0.2 1.1 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.5 0.3 0.7 0.9 -0.2 1.1 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.6

- Inventories 0.0 -0.3 0.1 0.1 -0.4 -0.6 -0.3 -0.1 1.1 0.4 0.3 0.5 -0.4 -0.2 0.3 -0.5 0.7 -0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.4 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.0 -0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0

- Net exports -0.1 0.3 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.6 0.6 -0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.2 0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.3 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 -0.2 -0.5 0.0

- Final demand 0.8 -1.1 0.5 -0.7 -1.8 -1.4 -0.4 0.5 -0.1 0.2 1.1 0.4 0.8 -0.1 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.9 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.6

Japan

Real GDP qoq % 0.3 -1.7 0.3 -1.1 -3.3 -4.0 1.7 0.1 1.7 1.5 1.1 1.5 -0.5 -1.9 -0.7 2.7 0.2 1.0 -0.5 -0.4 -0.1 1.3 0.6 0.6 -0.2 1.1 -1.9 -0.3 0.3 1.1 -0.4

- Inventories 0.0 -0.4 0.0 -0.6 1.3 -1.8 -0.5 -0.3 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.0 -0.4 -0.3 0.4 -0.2 0.5 -0.5 0.3 -0.1 -0.1 -0.5 0.2 0.1 -0.5 1.1 -0.5 -0.2 0.5 0.1

- Net exports 0.1 -0.7 0.0 0.0 -2.7 -1.7 1.6 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.1 0.2 -0.1 -0.3 -1.2 1.1 -0.7 0.2 -0.4 -0.5 -0.2 0.5 0.1 -0.3 -0.4 0.0 0.7 0.2 0.4 0.0 -0.4

- Final demand 0.2 -0.6 0.3 -0.4 -1.9 -0.5 0.6 -0.3 0.9 0.3 0.6 1.0 -0.5 -1.2 0.9 1.2 1.1 0.4 0.4 -0.2 0.2 0.9 1.1 0.6 0.1 1.6 -3.7 0.0 0.2 0.6 -0.1

Germany

Real GDP qoq % 0.4 -1.7 0.5 -0.4 -2.0 -4.5 0.1 0.6 0.9 0.8 2.0 0.8 0.8 1.9 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.4 0.1 0.2 -0.5 -0.3 0.9 0.4 0.3 0.7 -0.1 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.4

- Inventories 0.0 -0.5 0.0 0.8 -0.4 -0.9 -1.5 1.0 -0.7 1.5 0.4 -0.3 0.0 0.1 0.5 -0.6 -0.4 -0.4 -0.7 -0.3 0.5 0.0 -0.1 0.3 0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.5 0.4 -0.3 -

- Net exports 0.2 -0.9 0.1 -1.1 -1.5 -2.5 1.6 0.0 1.2 -0.9 0.5 0.7 0.4 -0.1 -0.2 0.4 0.1 0.7 0.7 0.3 -1.0 0.0 0.0 -0.5 0.5 -0.1 0.2 0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -

- Final demand 0.2 -0.3 0.4 -0.1 -0.1 -1.1 0.0 -0.4 0.4 0.2 1.1 0.4 0.4 1.9 -0.1 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 -0.3 1.0 0.6 -0.3 1.0 -0.2 0.3 0.5 0.8 -

France

Real GDP qoq % 0.5 -0.9 0.3 -0.3 -1.6 -1.6 -0.1 0.1 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 1.2 -0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 -0.3 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.8 -0.1 0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.2 0.1 0.7 0.0

- Inventories 0.0 -0.4 0.0 0.1 -0.3 -0.8 -0.7 0.1 0.8 -0.6 0.2 0.3 -0.2 1.2 0.1 -0.2 -0.7 0.1 -0.3 0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 -0.4 0.3 0.0 0.2 -0.3 0.3 -0.4

- Net exports -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.5 -0.1 0.6 0.1 -0.7 0.6 -0.2 -0.4 0.3 -0.6 0.5 0.1 0.8 -0.4 0.1 0.0 0.2 -0.1 0.1 -0.5 0.2 -0.1 -0.3 -0.2 0.2 -0.3 0.3

- Final demand 0.6 -0.4 0.2 -0.2 -0.8 -0.7 -0.1 0.0 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.5 -0.7 0.3 0.1 0.3 -0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.4 -0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.1

Italy

Real GDP qoq % 0.4 -1.8 -0.1 -1.3 -2.3 -3.0 -0.4 0.6 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.2 -0.5 -1.0 -1.0 -0.6 -0.5 -0.5 -0.9 -0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.3 0.2

- Inventories 0.0 -0.5 0.0 0.0 -0.7 -0.5 -0.7 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.0 -0.1 0.9 0.1 -0.5 -0.1 -0.6 0.0 -0.7 -0.1 0.1 0.4 -0.2 0.4 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.6 0.5 -

- Net exports 0.0 -0.3 0.2 -0.1 -0.6 -1.1 0.6 0.0 -0.4 -0.2 0.3 0.1 -0.7 0.6 0.8 0.3 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 -0.1 0.4 -0.4 -

- Final demand 0.4 -1.0 -0.4 -1.2 -1.0 -1.4 -0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.7 -1.3 -2.0 -0.8 -0.8 -0.9 -1.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.2 -

EMU

Real GDP qoq % 0.6 -1.4 0.2 -0.6 -1.8 -2.9 -0.2 0.3 0.5 0.4 1.0 0.4 0.5 0.9 0.0 0.0 -0.3 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 -0.3 -0.4 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3

- Inventories 0.0 -0.4 0.0 0.2 -0.3 -1.1 -0.4 0.5 0.1 0.5 0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.4 0.0 -0.3 -0.4 -0.1 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.3 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 -

- Net exports 0.1 -0.2 0.1 -0.2 -0.7 -0.5 0.7 0.0 0.2 -0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.2 0.2 -0.5 0.3 -0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.2 -

- Final demand 0.5 -0.8 0.0 -0.6 -0.8 -1.3 -0.5 -0.2 0.1 0.1 0.6 0.1 0.2 0.4 -0.3 -0.1 -0.4 -0.5 -0.5 -0.3 -0.4 -0.6 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 -

UK

Real GDP qoq % 0.7 -1.5 0.5 -1.7 -2.2 -1.8 -0.3 0.2 0.4 0.5 1.0 0.6 0.0 0.5 0.2 0.7 0.0 0.1 -0.2 0.8 -0.3 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.4 0.7

- Inventories 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.3 -1.2 -2.3 3.9 -1.3 0.4 1.0 -0.4 0.4 -0.7 0.2 -0.1 0.6 -0.5 -0.5 0.7 0.7 -0.6 -0.8 0.3 1.5 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 0.1 -0.4 0.4 -

- Net exports -0.1 0.2 0.0 -0.2 0.1 0.9 -0.1 0.0 -0.6 -0.2 0.2 -1.1 0.7 1.3 0.3 -0.5 0.0 -0.4 -0.3 0.1 -0.2 0.9 0.2 -1.7 0.1 0.1 0.2 -0.5 0.8 -0.9 -

- Final demand 0.9 -1.8 0.5 -1.8 -1.1 -0.3 -4.1 1.5 0.6 -0.3 1.1 1.3 0.0 -0.9 0.0 0.6 0.5 0.9 -0.6 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.9 0.6 1.0 0.9 1.2 0.4 0.8 -

* do not sum up exactly due to roundings

2015

Real GDP change (Q/Q non annualised, %) + contributions to growth *

201420092008 20132010 2011 2012


[Date]

16


Appendix 3 Real GDP growth: G7 countries + China

-10

-5

0

5

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% US : real GDP growth

q/q % (a.r.)

y/y%

-10

-5

0

5

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% EMU : real GDP growth

q/q % (a.r.)

y/y%

0

5

10

15

20

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% China : real GDP growth

q/q % (annual rate)

y/y%

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% Japan : real GDP growth

q/q % (a.r.) y/y%

Fukushima

VAT shock

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% Germany : real GDP growth

q/q % (a.r.)

y/y%

-10

-5

0

5

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% France : real GDP growth

q/q % (a.r.)

y/y%

-10

-5

0

5

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% UK : real GDP growth

q/q % (a.r.)

y/y%

Olympics

-10

-5

0

5

10

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% Canada : real GDP growth

q/q % (a.r.)

y/y%-15

-10

-5

0

5

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% Italy : real GDP growth

q/q % (a.r.)

y/y%


[Date]

17


Appendix 4 Real GDP growth: countries of Asia excl. China-Japan (selection)

0

5

10

15

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% India : real GDP growth

y/y%

new methodology from 2012

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% South Korea : real GDP growth

q/q % (a.r.)

y/y%

0

5

10

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% Indonesia : real GDP growth

q/q % (annual rate) y/y%

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% Taiwan : real GDP growth

q/q % (a.r.)

y/y%

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% Philippines : real GDP growth

q/q % (a.r.)

y/y%

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% Singapore : real GDP growth

q/q % (a.r.)

y/y%

-5

0

5

10

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% Australia : real GDP growth

q/q % (annualised rate)

y/y%

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% Malaysia : real GDP growth

q/q % (a.r.)

y/y%

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% Thailand : real GDP growth

q/q % (a.r.)

y/y%floods (-23%)

+45%


[Date]

18


Appendix 5 Real GDP growth: other countries (selection)

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% Brazil: real GDP growth

q/q % (annual rate)

y/y%

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% Turkey : real GDP growth

q/q % (a.r.)

y/y%

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% Mexico : real GDP growth

q/q % (a.r.)

y/y%

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% Russia : real GDP growth

q/q % (a.r.)

y/y%

-5

0

5

10

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% Poland : real GDP growth

q/q % (a.r.) y/y%

-10

-5

0

5

10

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% South Africa : real GDP growth

q/q % (a.r.) y/y%

-10

-5

0

5

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% Switzerland: real GDP growth

q/q % (a.r.)

y/y%

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% Chile: real GDP growth

q/q % (a.r.)

y/y%

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% Hungary : real GDP growth

q/q % (a.r.)

y/y%


[Date]

19


Appendix 6 Industrial production (index): selected countries

80

90

100

110

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

100=Jan.07US : industrial production index

80

90

100

110

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

100=Jan.07EMU : industrial production index

100

125

150

175

200

225

250

275

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

100=Jan.07China : industrial production index

60

70

80

90

100

110

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

100=Jan.07Japan : industrial production index

80

90

100

110

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

100=Jan.07Canada : industrial production index

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

100=Jan.07South Korea : industrial production index

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

100=Jan.07Taiwan : industrial production index

80

90

100

110

120

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

100=Jan.07Brazil : industrial production index

80

90

100

110

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

100=Jan.07Mexico : industrial production index


[Date]

20


Appendix 7 Consumer price inflation: G7 countries + China

-2

0

2

4

6

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% EMU : CPI inflation

y/y%

target ECB

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% China : CPI inflation

y/y%

official target

-4

-2

0

2

4

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% Japan : CPI inflation

y/y% target BoJ

VAT rate hike

-2

0

2

4

6

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% Germany : CPI inflation

y/y%

target ECB

-2

0

2

4

6

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% France : CPI inflation

y/y%

target ECB

-2

0

2

4

6

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% UK : CPI inflation

y/y%

target BoE

-2

0

2

4

6

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% Canada : CPI inflation

y/y%

target BoC

-2

0

2

4

6

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% US : CPI inflation

y/y%

target Fed

-2

0

2

4

6

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

y/y% Italy & Spain : CPI inflation

Italy

Spain

target ECB


[Date]

21


Appendix 8 Consumer price inflation: emerging countries (selection)

0

5

10

15

20

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% India : CPI inflation

y/y%

0

2

4

6

8

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% South Korea : CPI inflation

y/y%

target BoK

0

5

10

15

20

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% Indonesia : CPI inflation

y/y%

-5

0

5

10

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% Taiwan : CPI inflation

y/y%

-5

0

5

10

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% Thailand : CPI inflation

y/y%

0

5

10

15

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% Turkey : CPI inflation

y/y%

2

4

6

8

10

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% Brazil : CPI inflation

y/y%

target BCdoB

0

2

4

6

8

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% Mexico : CPI inflation

y/y%

0

4

8

12

16

20

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% Russia : CPI inflation

y/y%


[Date]

22


Appendix 9 Unemployment rates: G7 countries

4

6

8

10

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% US : unemployment rate

"threshold " for ending ZIRP

3

4

5

6

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% Japan : unemployment rate

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% EMU : unemployment rate (harmonised)

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% Germany : unemployment rate (harmonised)

7

8

9

10

11

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% France : unemployment rate (harmonised)

6

8

10

12

14

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% Italy : unemployment rate (harmonised)

4

6

8

10

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% UK : unemployment rate (harmonised) *

* last 2 points are estimated

based on alternative job data

"threshold " for ending ZIRP

5

6

7

8

9

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% Canada : unemployment rate

5

10

15

20

25

30

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% Spain : unemployment rate (harmonised)


[Date]

23

Source : Markit, Thomson Reuters, Oddo Securities.

Appendix 10 Purchasing managers’ confidence (PMI indices): G7 + BRIC countries

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

points US ISM index

manufacturing

non manuf.

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

points EMU : PMI index

manufacturing

services35

40

45

50

55

60

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

points China : PMI index (manufacturing)

HSBC/Caixin index

NBS index

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

points Japan : PMI index

manufacturing

services

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

points Germany : PMI index

manufacturing

services

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

points France : PMI index

manufacturing

services

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

points UK : PMI index

manufacturing

services

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

points other EMU : PMI index

Italy (composite)

Spain (composite)30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

points other BRIC : PMI index

Brazil (composite)

India (composite)

Russia (composite)


[Date]

24


Appendix 11 Consumer confidence: developed countries (selection)

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

st.dev. US: consumer confidence

Univ.of Michigan

Conference Board

0= 1990-2007 avg

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

st.dev. EMU: consumer confidence

0= 1990-2007 avg

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

st.dev. Japan: consumer confidence

0= 1990-2007 avg

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

st.dev. UK: consumer confidence

0= 1990-2007 avg

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

st.dev. Germany: consumer confidence

0= 1990-2007 avg-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

st.dev. France: consumer confidence

0= 1990-2007 avg

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

st.dev. Italy: consumer confidence

0= 1990-2007 avg

sample change

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

st.dev. Spain & Portugal: consumer confidence

Spain

Portugal

0= 1990-2007 avg

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

st.dev. Netherlands & Belgium: consumer confidence

Netherlands Belgium

0= 1990-2007 avg


[Date]

25

Source : Thomson Reuters, Bloomberg, Oddo Securities.

Appendix 12 Car sales: G7 countries + China + Brazil

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

'000s US: monthly car sales *

*light trucks included

500

750

1000

1250

1500

1750

2000

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

'000s China: monthly car sales

100

200

300

400

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

'000s Japan: monthly car sales

200

250

300

350

400

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

'000s Germany: monthly car sales

100

150

200

250

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

'000s France: monthly car sales

100

150

200

250

300

350

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

'000s Brazil: monthly car sales

0

50

100

150

200

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

'000s Spain: monthly car sales

100

150

200

250

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

'000s UK: monthly car sales

50

100

150

200

250

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

'000s Italy: monthly car sales


[Date]

26


Appendix 13 Central bank policy rates: developed countries (selection)

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% World: weighted-average policy rate*

*current GDP weighted

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% Japan: O/N rate

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% UK: base rate

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% Canada: O/N rate

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% Switzerland: policy rate*

*middle of the target rangefor the 3M LIBOR rate

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% Sweden & Norway: policy rates

Sweden

Norway

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% Australia & New Zealand: policy rates

Australia

New Zealand

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% EMU: ECB refi rate

0

1

2

3

4

5

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% US: Fed funds rate


[Date]

27


Appendix 14 Central bank policy rates: emerging countries (selection)

4

5

6

7

8

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% China: 1-year lending rate

5

7

9

11

13

15

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% Brazil: SELIC rate

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% Russia: policy rate

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% India & Indonesia: policy rates

India

Indonesia

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% South Korea: policy rate

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% Poland & Hungary: policy rates

Poland

Hungary

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% Taiwan: policy rate

0

2

4

6

8

10

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% Chile: policy rate

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% Mexico: policy rate


[Date]

28

Source : Thomson Reuters, Fed, ECB, Oddo Securities.

Appendix 15 Central bank balance sheets: developed countries (selection)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% GDP G6: total assets of central banks*

*US, EMU, Japan, UK, Canada, Switzerland

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

bn $ Fed: total assets

QE programmes other

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% GDP Fed: total assets

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% GDP ECB: total assets

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% GDP Bank of England: total assets

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% GDP Swiss National Bank: total assets

CHF/EUR peg

0

2

4

6

8

10

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% GDP Bank of Canada: total assets

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% GDP Bank of Japan: total assets

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

bn € ECB: total assets

QE programmes other


[Date]

29


Appendix 16 Currency reserves (in US$): world and principal holders

6000

8000

10000

12000

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

bn$ World: FX reserve assets

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

bn$ China: FX reserve assets

800

1000

1200

1400

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

bn$ Japan: FX reserve assets

700

900

1100

1300

1500

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

bn$ OPEC: FX reserve assets

900

1100

1300

1500

1700

1900

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

bn$ Asia ex-China/Japan: FX reserve assets

300

400

500

600

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

bn$ Russia: FX reserve assets

RUB free float

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

bn$ Latin America: FX reserves assets

200

250

300

350

400

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

bn$ EMU countries: FX reserve assets

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

bn$ Switzerland: FX reserve assets

SNB targets CHF


[Date]

30


Appendix 17 Current account balances (% of GDP): G7 countries + China

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

%GDP US : C/A balance

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

%GDP China : C/A balance

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

%GDP EMU*: C/A balance

* sum of EMU countries

-2

0

2

4

6

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

%GDP Japan : C/A balance

0

2

4

6

8

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

%GDP Germany: C/A balance

-4

-2

0

2

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

%GDP France: C/A balance

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

%GDP UK : C/A balance

-4

-2

0

2

4

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

%GDP Canada: C/A balance

-12

-9

-6

-3

0

3

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

%GDP Italy/Spain : C/A balance

Italy

Spain


[Date]

31


Appendix 18 Current account balances (% of GDP): emerging countries (selection)

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

%GDP India : C/A balance

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

%GDP Brazil : C/A balance

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

%GDP Russia : C/A balance

-4

-2

0

2

4

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

%GDP Indonesia : C/A balance

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

%GDP Mexico : C/A balance

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

%GDP Turkey : C/A balance

6

8

10

12

14

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

%GDP Taiwan : C/A balance

-2

0

2

4

6

8

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

%GDP South Korea : C/A balance

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

%GDP South Africa : C/A balance


[Date]

32


Appendix 19 Exchange rates vs. EUR or USD: major currencies

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

1€ = … US$

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.7

1.8

1.9

2.0

2.1

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

1£ = … US$

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

1US$ = … JPY

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

1US$ = … RMB (renminbi)

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

1€ = … CHF

CHF/EUR peg

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

1600

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

1US$ = … KRW (won)

1.5

1.8

2.1

2.4

2.7

3.0

3.3

3.6

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

1US$ = … BRL (real)

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

1US$ = … AUD & CAD

AUD

CAD

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

1US$ = … RUB (Russian ruble)


[Date]

33

Source : Bloomberg, Oddo Securities.

Appendix 20 Government debt (as a % of GDP) : European countries (selection)

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% GDP Germany: government debt

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% GDP France: government debt

100

105

110

115

120

125

130

135

140

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% GDP Italy: government debt

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% GDP Spain: government debt

80

90

100

110

120

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% GDP Belgium: government debt

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% GDP Greece: government debt

haircut

2030405060708090

100110120130

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% GDP Ireland: government debt

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% GDP Portugal: government debt

-9

-6

-3

0

3

6

9

12

15

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% GDP EMU: government debt

budget balance (rhs)


[Date]

34


Appendix 21 Sovereign ratings: European countries (selection)

08 08 10 11 12 13 14 15

scale France rating (average S&P, Moody's, Fitch)

AAA / Aaa

BB+ / Ba1

junk

IGS&P cut

Moody's cut

Fitch cut

S&P cut Fitch cut

08 08 10 11 12 13 14 15

scale Germany rating (average S&P, Moody's, Fitch)

AAA / Aaa

BB+ / Ba1

junk status

investment grade

08 08 10 11 12 13 14 15

scale Belgium rating (average S&P, Moody's, Fitch)

AAA / Aaa

BB+ / Ba1

junk

IG

08 08 10 11 12 13 14 15

scale Italy rating (average S&P, Moody's, Fitch)

AAA / Aaa

BB+ / Ba1

junk

IG

08 08 10 11 12 13 14 15

scale Spain rating (average S&P, Moody's, Fitch)

AAA / Aaa

BB+ / Ba1

junk

IG

08 08 10 11 12 13 14 15

scale Ireland rating (average S&P, Moody's, Fitch)

AAA / Aaa

BB+ / Ba1

junk

IG

08 08 10 11 12 13 14 15

scale Portugal rating (average S&P, Moody's, Fitch)

AAA / Aaa

BB+ / Ba1

junk

IG

08 08 10 11 12 13 14 15

scale Greece rating (average S&P, Moody's, Fitch)

AAA / Aaa

BB+ / Ba1junk status

investment grade

08 08 10 11 12 13 14 15

scale UK rating (avg S&P, Moody's, Fitch)

AAA / Aaa

BB+ / Ba1

junk

IG Moody's cut

Fitchcut


[Date]

35

[Date]

35

Sources: central banks, Oddo Securities.

Appendix 22 Bank financing by the Eurosystem

0

100

200

300

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

bnEUR Germany: ECB refinancing

LTRO

MRO

0

25

50

75

100

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

bnEUR Netherlands: ECB refinancing

MRO + LTRO

0

50

100

150

200

250

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

bnEUR France: ECB refinancing

LTRO

MRO

MRO+LTRO0

100

200

300

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

bnEUR Italy: ECB refinancing

LTRO

MRO

0

100

200

300

400

500

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

bnEUR Spain: ECB refinancing

LTRO

MRO

0

25

50

75

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

bnEUR Portugal: ECB refinancing

LTRO

MRO

0

50

100

150

200

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

bnEUR Ireland: ECB/NCB refinancing

ELA

LTRO

MRO

0

5

10

15

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

bnEUR Finland: ECB refinancing

LTRO

MRO

0

50

100

150

200

09 10 11 12 13 14 15

bnEUR Greece: ECB /NCB refinancing

ELA

LTRO

MRO


[Date]

36

[Date]

36

Sources: central banks, Oddo Securities.

Appendix 23 Bank loans to the private sector: European countries (selection)

-3

0

3

6

9

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

y/y% Germany: loans to the private sector

-6

-3

0

3

6

9

12

15

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

y/y% France: loans to the private sector

-6

-3

0

3

6

9

12

15

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

y/y% Italy: loans to the private sector

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

y/y% Spain: loans to the private sector

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

y/y% Ireland: loans to the private sector

-3

0

3

6

9

12

15

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

y/y% Netherlands: loans to the private sector

-3

0

3

6

9

12

15

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

y/y% Finland: loans to the private sector

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

y/y% Greece: loans to the private sector

-6

-3

0

3

6

9

12

15

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

y/y% Portugal: loans to the private sector


[Date]

37

Appendix 24 10-year government bond yield


0

1

2

3

4

5

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% US: 10Y government bond yield

2000-2009

2010-2012

0

1

2

3

4

5

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% Japan: 10Y government bond yield

2000-2009

2010-2012

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% Portugal/Ireland: 10Y government bond yield

Ireland

Portugal

0

1

2

3

4

5

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% Germany: 10Y government bond yield

2000-2009

2010-2012

0

1

2

3

4

5

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% UK: 10Y government bond yield

2000-2009

2010-2012

0

1

2

3

4

5

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% France: 10Y government bond yield

2000-2009

2010-2012

0

1

2

3

4

5

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% Netherlands: 10Y government bond yield

2000-2009

2010-2012

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% Spain: 10Y government bond yield

2000-09

2010 -2012

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

% Italy: 10Y government bond yield

2000-09

2010 -2012

Documents

Economy & Rates Rate/Eco Rate August.pdfaccounts, we estimate the rise in global GDP in Q2 at 2.6% q-o-q on an annualized basis, after 2.8% in Q1 2015 and 2.5% in Q4 2014. The figure