Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Christopher S. GalikRobert C. Abt
Ronalds W. GonzalezSOFAC Annual Meeting, August 8, 2013
Durham, NC
Economics, Carbon Scores, and Market Impacts of Woody Biomass
• Overview of recent research
– An investigation of drivers of GHG balance in an applied setting
• Glimpse into new research
– Interaction between EU demand and US forest condition
• Status update on ongoing research
– USDA AFRI
Recent Research: Feedstock Source and Facility GHG Dynamics
• Partnership between Duke, NCSU, Southern Company, and EPRI
• Sought to examine the drivers of GHG dynamics, particularly feedstock sourcing decisions
Assumed woody biomass supply region for Georgia Power’s Plant Mitchell, Albany, Georgia
Feedstock Options
Parameter
Scenario
Market Allocation Specified Feedstock
Feedstock Endogenous (SRTS-allocated)
- 35% forest residues
- 15% whole tree
- 50% waste
Plantation establishment/
maintenanceEmissions estimated for softwood plantations only
Harvest Emissions estimated for all feedstock, regardless of species or component
Transportation Assumes mean travel distance of 50km
Residue Decay Emissions estimated for all residues, regardless of species
Landfill Emissions N/A
Calculates alternate fate of waste
feedstock stream in baseline
scenario. Assumes that 15% of
decayed carbon is emitted (10% as
CO2; 5% as CH4)
Annual GHG benefit of biomass conversion assuming market allocation of feedstock
Annual GHG benefit of biomass conversion assuming specified feedstock allocation
Annual GHG benefits of SRTS-allocated and defined-feedstock examples
Cumulative GHG benefits of SRTS-allocated and defined-feedstock examples
Conclusions and Next Steps• Counter-intuitively, seeking out “anyway tons” leads
to reduced GHG benefit as compared to market allocation
• Again, price signal and corresponding planting/ forestland maintenance behavior drives the finding
• Timing of emissions is important when burning an otherwise-degrading feedstock
• Publication in process…
New Research: EU Demand and US Forest Condition
• What are the implications of expected EU pellet demand?
• How do changes in US forest condition align with EU sustainability requirements?
• How do alternative levels of demand or different sustainability criteria affect outcome?
• Funds will support applied analysis, outreach, and partnership development
Biomass emission intensity against a 60% reduction in average GHG intensity
EU Demand and US Forest Condition
From: Goh et al., Biofuels, Bioprod. Bioref. 7:24–42 (2013)
Ongoing Work: USDA/NIFA Grant
• Technical work to focus on increased linkage between regional (SRTS) and national (FASOMGHG) modeling efforts
• Applied analysis to include three “novel” policy options:– Regional public/private biomass supply partnerships– Regional biomass reserve program– Integrated regional renewable energy standard
• First results expected Winter 2013
Extra Material
Drivers of variation in bioenergy GHG determinations as reported by a subset of bioenergy LCA studies (n=16)
Cumulative GHG benefit of conversion assuming market allocation of feedstock
Cumulative GHG benefit of conversion assuming specified feedstock allocation
