Economic Profile in ITC Group Countries · REAL INDICATORS Update – October, 24th 2008 ITALCEMENTI GROUP-SESO – Economic Profile page 1 yoy % ch (unless otherwise indicated) 2005

Social and Economic Studies Office

Economic Profile in ITC Group Countries

Global Economic Conditions: Real Indicators Financial Indicators

Countries: United States Canada France Belgium Italy Spain Greece Bulgaria

Egypt Morocco Turkey Thailand India China Kazakhstan

Update - October, 24th 2008

Key to Abbreviations ar annual rate bn billion ch change d day lhs left hand side m month ma moving average mn million mom month-on-month nsa not seasonally adjusted o/n overnight pa per annum Q quarter rhs right hand side sa seasonally adjusted saar seasonally adjusted at annual rate tn trillion wda working days adjusted y year yoy year-on-year

Based on all information up to October, 23rd 2008 Available in @Gold

REAL INDICATORS

Update – October, 24th 2008 ITALCEMENTI GROUP-SESO – Economic Profile page 1

yoy % ch (unless otherwise indicated) 2005 2006 2007 Latest GDP: OECD 2.7 3.1 2.7 1.9 Q2 Euro Area 1.7 2.8 2.6 1.4 Q2 US 2.9 2.8 2.0 2.1 Q2 Japan 1.9 2.4 2.1 0.8 Q2 Inflation: US Euro Area

3.42.2

3.32.2

2.8 2.1

5.4 3.6

Sep Sep

Oil Price Level (Brent, $/barrel) 54.4 65.4 72.7 99.4 Sep (yoy % ch) 42.0 20.2 11.2 29.4 Notes: Sources: OECD, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Eurostat, International Monetary Fund, Energy International Agency

GDP Growth in Selected Areas (yoy % ch, volume, sa)

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

Q1-

03

Q2-

03

Q3-

03

Q4-

03

Q1-

04

Q2-

04

Q3-

04

Q4-

04

Q1-

05

Q2-

05

Q3-

05

Q4-

05

Q1-

06

Q2-

06

Q3-

06

Q4-

06

Q1-

07

Q2-

07

Q3-

07

Q4-

07

Q1-

08

Q2-

08

OECD Euro area Japan US

Source: OECD, Quarterly National Accounts

Commodity Price Dollar Indices

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

1-05

4-05

7-05

10-0

5

1-06

4-06

7-06

10-0

6

1-07

4-07

7-07

10-0

7

1-08

4-08

7-08

10-0

8

Non energy all itemsFood

IndustrialsCrude Oil - Brent

Sources: Economist and International Monetary Fund

(1/1/2005=100)

GLOBAL ECONOMIC CONDITIONS: Real Indicators

REAL INDICATORS

Update – October, 24th 2008 page 2 ITALCEMENTI GROUP-SESO – Economic Profile

98

100

102

104

106

108

110

1121-

054-

057-

0510

-05

1-06

4-06

7-06

10-0

61-

074-

077-

0710

-07

1-08

4-08

7-08

USEuro area

US and Euro Area: Industrial Production(sa)

Source: OECD, Main Economic Indicators

(Jan 2005=100)1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

1-05

4-05

7-05

10-0

51-

064-

067-

0610

-06

1-07

4-07

7-07

10-0

71-

084-

087-

08

USEuro area

US and Euro Area: Consumer Price Inflation(yoy % ch, sa)


Composite Leading Indicators (annualised 6m %)

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

1-05

4-05

7-05

10-0

51-

064-

067-

0610

-06

1-07

4-07

7-07

10-0

71-

084-

087-

08

USEuro areaJapan


-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

101-

054-

057-

0510

-05

1-06

4-06

7-06

10-0

61-

074-

077-

0710

-07

1-08

4-08

7-08

ManufacturingConsumer Construction

Euro Area: Confidence Indicators(% balance, sa, 3m ma)

Source: European Economy, Supplement B

FINANCIAL INDICATORS


2005 2006 2007 Latest Dollar/Euro Exchange Rate 1.244 1.256 1.370 1.508 * Policy Rates (end of period): - US (target for federal funds) - Euro Area (repo rate)

4.252.25

5.253.50

4.25 4.00

1.50 3.75

08/10/08 15/10/08

Long Term Interest Rate (10y government bonds, year average): - US - Euro Area

4.293.44

4.803.86

4.63 4.33

3.69 4.50

Sep Sep

Notes: * Average from 2/1/2008 to latest available data Sources: European Central Bank and Federal Reserve Bank

Yen/$, $/Euro and Yen/Euro Indices

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

1-05

4-05

7-05

10-0

5

1-06

4-06

7-06

10-0

6

1-07

4-07

7-07

10-0

7

1-08

4-08

7-08

10-0

8

Yen/$

$/EuroYen/Euro

(1/1/2005=100)

Source: Daily press

$/Euro Exchange Rate

1.15

1.20

1.25

1.30

1.35

1.40

1.45

1.50

1.55

1.60

1.65

1-05

4-05

7-05

10-0

51-

064-

067-

0610

-06

1-07

4-07

7-07

10-0

71-

084-

087-

0810

-08

Source: Daily press

Real Effective Exchange Rate Indices

90

92

94

96

98

100

102

104

106

108

110

1-05

4-05

7-05

10-0

51-

064-

067-

0610

-06

1-07

4-07

7-07

10-0

71-

084-

087-

08

Euro

US$

Source: European Central Bank, OECD

(Jan 2005=100)

GLOBAL ECONOMIC CONDITIONS: Financial Indicators



Stock Exchange Indices in Local Currencies

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

1601-

05

4-05

7-05

10-0

5

1-06

4-06

7-06

10-0

6

1-07

4-07

7-07

10-0

7

1-08

4-08

7-08

10-0

8

USJapanEuro

Source: Daily press

(1/1/2005=100)

IFC Investable Dollar Indices

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

1-05

4-05

7-05

10-0

5

1-06

4-06

7-06

10-0

6

1-07

4-07

7-07

10-0

7

1-08

4-08

7-08

10-0

8

AsiaLatin AmericaEMEA

EMEA: Less Developed Europe, Middle East and Africa, includes Russia. Source: Standard & Poors

(1/1/2005=100

Euro Libor

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

5.00

5.50

6.00

1-05

4-05

7-05

10-0

51-

064-

067-

0610

-06

1-07

4-07

7-07

10-0

71-

084-

087-

0810

-08

3m1y

Source: Daily press

Dollar Libor

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

5.00

5.50

6.00

1-05

4-05

7-05

10-0

51-

064-

067-

0610

-06

1-07

4-07

7-07

10-0

71-

084-

087-

0810

-08

3m1y

Source: Daily press



US and Germany: Benchmark 10 Years Interest Rates

2.80

3.20

3.60

4.00

4.40

4.80

5.20

5.601-

054-

057-

0510

-05

1-06

4-06

7-06

10-0

61-

074-

077-

0710

-07

1-08

4-08

7-08

10-0

8

US T-BondsGerman Bunds

Source: Daily press

1.40

2.00

2.60

3.20

3.80

4.40

5.00

5.60

1-05

4-05

7-05

10-0

51-

064-

067-

0610

-06

1-07

4-07

7-07

10-0

71-

084-

087-

0810

-08

Source: Federal Reserve Bank

Moody's baa Rated Bonds and 10 Years US T-Bonds: Interest Rates Differential

US Yield Curves

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

5.00

5.50

3m 6m 1y 2y 3y 5y 10y

19-Oct-07 18-Apr-0818-Jul-08 19-Sep-0817-Oct-08

Average rates for w eek ending date show n. Source:FED

German Yield Curves

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

5.00

5.503m 6m 1y 2y 3y 5y 10

y

19-Oct-07 18-Apr-0818-Jul-08 19-Sep-0817-Oct-08

Average rates for w eek ending date show n.Source:DBB

UNITED STATES


Real Indicators* 2005 2006 2007 Latest GDP 2.9 2.8 2.0 2.1 Q2 Industrial Production 3.3 2.2 1.6 -2.8 Sep** Construction Materials Production 4.8 3.5 -1.7 -1.5 Sep** Construction Investment 3.2 -2.4 -5.6 -5.8 Q2 Housing Starts - Private 5.8 -12.9 -24.8 -31.1 Sep Consumer Prices*** 3.4 3.3 2.8 5.4 Sep Producer Prices - Finished Goods*** 4.8 3.0 3.9 8.7 Sep Hourly Earnings - Manufacturing*** 2.6 1.5 2.7 2.5 Sep Standardised Unemployment Rate (%) 5.1 4.6 4.6 6.1 Sep Current Account Balance (US$bn) -729.0 -788.1 -731.2 -699.0 Q2° - as a percentage of GDP -5.9 -6.0 -5.3 -5.0 Real Effective Exchange Rate Index§ 93.3 92.6 88.5 86.0 Sep Notes: * % yoy ch, sa, unless otherwise indicated; ** mom % ch; *** nsa; ° latest 12 months up to Q2 included; § 2000=100

Financial Indicators

Short Term Interest Rate pa (3m CD) 3.51 5.16 5.27 3.59 Sep Long Term Interest Rate pa (benchmark 10y) 4.29 4.80 4.63 3.69 Sep Stock Exchange (S&P 500) Index (% ch)* 6.8 8.5 12.7 -39.8 23/10/08**Notes: * Average over year; ** % change on 31/12/07 Sources: OECD, FED, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bank of International Settlements (BIS), daily press

UNITED STATES

UNITED STATES


Real GDP(sa)

10.0

10.5

11.0

11.5

12.0Q

1-03

Q3-

03

Q1-

04

Q3-

04

Q1-

05

Q3-

05

Q1-

06

Q3-

06

Q1-

07

Q3-

07

Q1-

08

1

2

3

4

5Level ($tn at 2000 prices, ar)Yoy % ch (rhs)

Private Consumption and Total Investment (yoy % ch, sa)

-6

-3

0

3

6

9

Q1-

03

Q3-

03

Q1-

04

Q3-

04

Q1-

05

Q3-

05

Q1-

06

Q3-

06

Q1-

07

Q3-

07

Q1-

08

Private consumptionTotal investment

Industrial Production (IP) and Composite Leading Indicator (CLI)

-3

-1

1

3

5

1-05

4-05

7-05

10-0

51-

064-

067-

0610

-06

1-07

4-07

7-07

10-0

71-

084-

087-

08

-6

-3

0

3

6

IP (3m ma, yoy % ch)CLI (annualised 6m % ch, rhs)

Confidence Indicators (sa)

40

44

48

52

56

60

1-05

4-05

7-05

10-0

51-

064-

067-

0610

-06

1-07

4-07

7-07

10-0

71-

084-

087-

0810

-08

50

60

70

80

90

100

ManufacturingConsumer (rhs)

Consumer and Producer Price Indices (yoy % ch)

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

1-05

4-05

7-05

10-0

51-

064-

067-

0610

-06

1-07

4-07

7-07

10-0

71-

084-

087-

08

CPI PPI Finished goods

Real Effective Exchange Rate Index

80

84

88

92

96

1-05

4-05

7-05

10-0

51-

064-

067-

0610

-06

1-07

4-07

7-07

10-0

71-

084-

087-

08

(2000=100)

Stock Market Indices ('000)

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

1-05

4-05

7-05

10-0

51-

064-

067-

0610

-06

1-07

4-07

7-07

10-0

71-

084-

087-

0810

-08

1.4

1.7

2.0

2.3

2.6

2.9

S&P 500Nasdaq (rhs)

Benchmark 10 Years Interest Rates

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

1-05

4-05

7-05

10-0

51-

064-

067-

0610

-06

1-07

4-07

7-07

10-0

71-

084-

087-

0810

-08

Sources: OECD, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Labor Statistics, BIS, daily press

UNITED STATES


Business Conditions in the Construction Sector Construction Investment

(sa)

85

89

93

97

101

105

Q1-

03

Q3-

03

Q1-

04

Q3-

04

Q1-

05

Q3-

05

Q1-

06

Q3-

06

Q1-

07

Q3-

07

Q1-

08

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

Level ($bn at 2000 prices, ar)Yoy % ch (rhs)

Construction Investment by Type (yoy % ch, sa)

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

Q1-

03

Q3-

03

Q1-

04

Q3-

04

Q1-

05

Q3-

05

Q1-

06

Q3-

06

Q1-

07

Q3-

07

Q1-

08

Private residentialPrivate non residentialGovernment

Construction Employment (mn, sa)

7.07.17.27.3

7.47.57.67.77.8

1-05

4-05

7-05

10-0

51-

064-

067-

0610

-06

1-07

4-07

7-07

10-0

71-

084-

087-

08

NAHB Housing Market Index (sa)

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1-05

4-05

7-05

10-0

51-

064-

067-

0610

-06

1-07

4-07

7-07

10-0

71-

084-

087-

0810

-08

(hint: over 50 = expansion)

Effective Home Mortgage Rates (% pa)

5.0

5.4

5.8

6.2

6.6

7.0

1-05

4-05

7-05

10-0

51-

064-

067-

0610

-06

1-07

4-07

7-07

10-0

71-

084-

087-

08

FixedAdjustable

80

95

110

125

140

155

Q1-

03

Q3-

03

Q1-

04

Q3-

04

Q1-

05

Q3-

05

Q1-

06

Q3-

06

Q1-

07

Q3-

07

Q1-

08

Residential investmentReal housing price

Residential Investment and Real Housing Prices

(2000=100)

NAHB Housing Affordability Index (%)

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

Q1-

03

Q3-

03

Q1-

04

Q3-

04

Q1-

05

Q3-

05

Q1-

06

Q3-

06

Q1-

07

Q3-

07

Q1-

08

Housing Starts (mn, saar)

0.5

0.8

1.1

1.4

1.7

2.0

2.3

2.6

1-05

4-05

7-05

10-0

51-

064-

067-

0610

-06

1-07

4-07

7-07

10-0

71-

084-

087-

08

Sources: US Census, National Association of Home Builders, Dept. of Labour, Federal Housing Finance Board, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Labour Statistics, OFHEO

CANADA


Real Indicators* 2005 2006 2007 Latest GDP 2.9 3.1 2.7 0.7 Q2 Industrial Production 1.7 -0.2 -0.1 1.9 Jul** Construction Production 4.6 6.3 3.0 0.2 Jul** Construction Investment 6.7 5.3 2.2 -0.3 Q2 Consumer Prices*** 2.3 2.0 2.2 3.5 Aug Producer Prices - Manufacturing*** 1.5 2.4 1.6 8.1 Aug Hourly Earnings - Manufacturing*** 1.8 0.5 4.2 2.5 Jul Standardised Unemployment Rate (%) 6.8 6.3 6.0 6.1 Sep Current Account Balance (Can$bn) 26.5 20.2 13.6 13.7 Q2° as a percentage of GDP 1.9 1.4 0.9 0.9 Real Effective Exchange Rate Index§ 118.7 125.4 129.7 127.0 Sep Notes * yoy % ch, sa, unless otherwise indicated; ** mom % ch; *** nsa; ° latest 12 months up to Q2 included; § 2000=100


Short Term Interest Rate pa (o/n) 2.66 4.02 4.34 2.99 Sep Long term interest rate pa (benchmark 10y) 4.07 4.21 4.27 3.50 Sep Stock Exchange (TSE) Index (% ch)* 17.6 18.4 13.8 -33.7 23/10/08**Notes: * Average over year; ** % change on 31/12/07 Sources: OECD, Statistics Canada, BIS, daily press

CANADA

CANADA


Real GDP

(sa)

1.10

1.15

1.20

1.25

1.30

1.35Q

1-03

Q3-

03

Q1-

04

Q3-

04

Q1-

05

Q3-

05

Q1-

06

Q3-

06

Q1-

07

Q3-

07

Q1-

08

0

1

2

3

4

5Level (CADtn at 2002 prices, ar)Yoy % ch (rhs)


-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

1-05

4-05

7-05

10-0

51-

064-

067-

0610

-06

1-07

4-07

7-07

10-0

71-

084-

087-

08

IP (3m ma, yoy % ch)CLI (annualised 6m % ch)


-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

1-05

4-05

7-05

10-0

51-

064-

067-

0610

-06

1-07

4-07

7-07

10-0

71-

084-

087-

08CPI PPI Manufacturing

Canadian $ Libor

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

1-05

4-05

7-05

10-0

51-

064-

067-

0610

-06

1-07

4-07

7-07

10-0

71-

084-

087-

0810

-08

3m1y


3.25

3.50

3.75

4.00

4.25

4.50

4.75

5.00

1-05

4-05

7-05

10-0

51-

064-

067-

0610

-06

1-07

4-07

7-07

10-0

71-

084-

087-

0810

-08


110

115

120

125

130

135

140

145

1-05

4-05

7-05

10-0

51-

064-

067-

0610

-06

1-07

4-07

7-07

10-0

71-

084-

087-

08

(2000=100)

Construction Production(yoy % ch, sa)

0

2

4

6

8

10

1-05

4-05

7-05

10-0

51-

064-

067-

0610

-06

1-07

4-07

7-07

10-0

71-

084-

087-

08

Construction: Permits Issued (Can$ tn, sa)

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1-05

4-05

7-05

10-0

51-

064-

067-

0610

-06

1-07

4-07

7-07

10-0

71-

084-

087-

08

Total buildingsHomes

Sources: OECD, Statistics Canada, BIS, daily press

FRANCE


Real Indicators* 2005 2006 2007 Latest GDP (wda) 1.9 2.4 2.1 1.1 Q2 Industrial Production 0.3 0.5 1.3 -0.4 Aug** Construction Production 3.2 3.6 3.7 -0.7 Aug** Construction Investment 3.7 5.3 4.4 -1.4 Q2 Consumer Prices - Harmonised Index*** 1.8 2.0 1.6 3.3 Sep Producer Prices - Manufactured Goods*** 1.8 2.5 2.2 3.1 Aug Hourly Earnings - Manufacturing (ouvriers)*** 2.9 2.8 2.8 3.3 Q2 Standardised Unemployment Rate (%) 9.3 9.2 8.3 8.0 Aug Current Account Balance (€bn) -10.9 -12.3 -22.3 -32.2 Q2° as a percentage of GDP -0.6 -0.7 -1.2 -1.7 Real Effective Exchange Rate Index§ 108.9 108.2 109.1 109.1 Sep Notes: * yoy % ch, sa, unless otherwise indicated; ** mom % ch; *** nsa; ° latest 12 months up to Q2 included; § 2000=100


Short Term Interest Rate pa (Euro Libor 3m) 2.18 3.08 4.28 5.02 Sep Long Term Interest Rate pa (benchmark 10y) 3.41 3.80 4.30 4.36 Sep Stock Exchange (CAC) Index (% ch)* 15.8 19.7 12.1 -41.0 23/10/08**Notes: *Average over year; ** % change on 31/12/07 Sources: OECD, Banque de France, INSEE, BIS, daily press

FRANCE

FRANCE


Real GDP(sa)

1.45

1.50

1.55

1.60

1.65

1.70Q

1-03

Q3-

03

Q1-

04

Q3-

04

Q1-

05

Q3-

05

Q1-

06

Q3-

06

Q1-

07

Q3-

07

Q1-

08

0

1

2

3

4Level (€tn at 2000 prices, ar)Yoy % ch (rhs)


0

1

2

34

5

6

7

Q1-

03

Q3-

03

Q1-

04

Q3-

04

Q1-

05

Q3-

05

Q1-

06

Q3-

06

Q1-

07

Q3-

07

Q1-

08



-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

1-05

4-05

7-05

10-0

51-

064-

067-

0610

-06

1-07

4-07

7-07

10-0

71-

084-

087-

08

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

IP (3m ma, yoy % ch)CLI (annualised 6m % ch, rhs)

Confidence Indicators(% balance, sa)

-15

-10

-5

0

5

1-05

4-05

7-05

10-0

51-

064-

067-

0610

-06

1-07

4-07

7-07

10-0

71-

084-

087-

08

-30

-20

-10

0

10


Consumer (HICP) and Producer Price Indices (yoy % ch)

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

1-05

4-05

7-05

10-0

51-

064-

067-

0610

-06

1-07

4-07

7-07

10-0

71-

084-

087-

08

CPIPPI Manufacturing


106

107

108

109

110

111

112

113

1-05

4-05

7-05

10-0

51-

064-

067-

0610

-06

1-07

4-07

7-07

10-0

71-

084-

087-

08

(2000=100)


3.003.253.503.754.004.254.504.755.00

1-05

4-05

7-05

10-0

51-

064-

067-

0610

-06

1-07

4-07

7-07

10-0

71-

084-

087-

0810

-08

Stock Market Index (CAC40, '000)

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

1-05

4-05

7-05

10-0

51-

064-

067-

0610

-06

1-07

4-07

7-07

10-0

71-

084-

087-

0810

-08

Sources: OECD, INSEE, BIS, daily press

FRANCE


Business Conditions in the Construction Sector Construction Investment (sa)

120

128

136

144

152

160Q

1-03

Q3-

03

Q1-

04

Q3-

04

Q1-

05

Q3-

05

Q1-

06

Q3-

06

Q1-

07

Q3-

07

Q1-

08

-2

0

2

4

6

8

Level (€bn at 2000 prices, ar)Yoy % ch (rhs)

Residential Activity (12m ma)

95

100

105

110

115

120

6-05

9-05

12-0

53-

06

6-06

9-06

12-0

6

3-07

6-07

9-07

12-0

7

3-08

6-08

PermitsStarts

(Jun 2005=100)


1.25

1.30

1.35

1.40

1.45

1.50

1.55

Q1-

03

Q3-

03

Q1-

04

Q3-

04

Q1-

05

Q3-

05

Q1-

06

Q3-

06

Q1-

07

Q3-

07

Q1-

08

Construction Production Index and Confidence Indicator (sa)

112

115

118

121

124

127

130

1-05

4-05

7-05

10-0

51-

064-

067-

0610

-06

1-07

4-07

7-07

10-0

71-

084-

087-

08

-5.8

0.0

5.8

11.6

17.4

23.2

29.0

CPI (2000=100)CCI (% balance, rhs)

Households Mortgages

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

1-05

4-05

7-05

10-0

51-

064-

067-

0610

-06

1-07

4-07

7-07

10-0

71-

084-

08

10

12

14

16

18Level (€bn)Yoy % ch (rhs)

90

110

130

150

170

190

Q1-

03

Q3-

03

Q1-

04

Q3-

04

Q1-

05

Q3-

05

Q1-

06

Q3-

06

Q1-

07

Q3-

07

Q1-

08


(2000=100)

Residential Investment and Real Housing Price

Sources: OECD, Ministère de l'Equipement, INSEE, European Commission, Banque de France

BELGIUM


Real Indicators* 2005 2006 2007 Latest GDP (wda) 2.0 2.9 2.8 1.9 Q2 Industrial Production -0.4 5.1 2.7 -17.4 Jul** Construction Production -3.4 3.2 2.3 -46.0 Jul** Construction (Gross Value Added) 3.3 9.1 3.9 0.7 Q2 Consumer Prices – Harmonised Index*** 2.5 2.3 1.8 5.5 Sep Producer Prices*** 2.7 5.0 3.3 12.0 Aug Hourly Earnings-Industry*** 2.5 2.2 1.7 3.3 Q3 Standardised Unemployment Rate (%) 8.5 8.3 7.5 6.6 Sep Current Account Balance (bn €) 7.9 8.4 5.6 -6.5 Q2° as a percentage of GDP 2.6 2.7 1.7 -1.9 Real Effective Exchange Rate Index§ 109.2 108.9 109.9 112.4 Sep Notes: * yoy % ch, sa, unless otherwise indicated; ** mom % ch; *** nsa; ° latest 12 months up to Q2 included; § 2000=100


Short Term Interest Rate pa (Euro Libor 3m) 2.18 3.08 4.28 5.02 Sep Long Term Interest Rate pa (benchmark 10y) 3.37 3.81 4.33 4.57 Sep Stock Exchange (BEL20) Index (% ch)* 25.0 22.2 13.1 -52.0 23/10/08**Notes: * Average over year; ** % change on 31/12/07 Sources: OECD, Institut National de Statistique, Banque National de Belgique, BIS, daily press

BELGIUM

BELGIUM


Real GDP

(sa)

280

290

300

310

320

330Q

1-03

Q3-

03

Q1-

04

Q3-

04

Q1-

05

Q3-

05

Q1-

06

Q3-

06

Q1-

07

Q3-

07

Q1-

08

0

1

2

3

4

5Level (€bn at 2004 prices, ar)Yoy % ch (rhs)


-6

-3

0

3

6

9

12

1-05

4-05

7-05

10-0

51-

064-

067-

0610

-06

1-07

4-07

7-07

10-0

71-

084-

087-

08



0

3

6

9

12

15

1-05

4-05

7-05

10-0

51-

064-

067-

0610

-06

1-07

4-07

7-07

10-0

71-

084-

087-

08CPI PPI


-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

1-05

4-05

7-05

10-0

51-

064-

067-

0610

-06

1-07

4-07

7-07

10-0

71-

084-

087-

08

ManufacturingConsumer


106

108

110

112

114

116

1-05

4-05

7-05

10-0

51-

064-

067-

0610

-06

1-07

4-07

7-07

10-0

71-

084-

087-

08

(2000=100)


3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

1-05

4-05

7-05

10-0

51-

064-

067-

0610

-06

1-07

4-07

7-07

10-0

71-

084-

087-

0810

-08

Construction: Permits Issued for Residential Buildings ('000, sa)

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

1-05

4-05

7-05

10-0

51-

064-

067-

0610

-06

1-07

4-07

7-07

10-0

71-

084-

08


50

70

90

110

130

1-05

4-05

7-05

10-0

51-

064-

067-

0610

-06

1-07

4-07

7-07

10-0

71-

084-

087-

08

-10

-5

0

5

10


Sources: OECD, European Commission, Belgostat, BIS, daily press

ITALY


Real Indicators* 2005 2006 2007 Latest GDP (wda) 0.7 1.9 1.4 -0.1 Q2 Industrial Production -0.7 2.4 -0.2 1.4 Aug** Construction Investment 0.8 1.7 2.0 0.6 Q2 Consumer Prices - Harmonised Index*** 2.2 2.2 2.1 3.9 Sep Producer Prices*** 4.0 5.6 3.5 8.2 Aug Hourly Rates - Industry, excl.Construction*** 2.7 3.3 2.7 4.0 Aug Standardised Unemployment Rate (%) 7.7 6.8 6.2 6.8 Q2 Current Account Balance (€bn) -23.6 -38.5 -37.4 -41.3 Q1° as a percentage of GDP -1.7 -2.6 -2.4 -2.7 Real Effective Exchange Rate Index§ 110.8 110.5 111.5 111.8 Sep Notes: * yoy % ch, sa, unless otherwise indicated; ** mom % ch; *** nsa; °latest 12 months up to Q1 included; § 2000=100


Short Term Interest Rate pa (Euro Libor 3m) 2.18 3.08 4.28 5.02 Sep Long Term Interest Rate pa (benchmark 10y) 3.56 4.05 4.49 4.80 Sep Stock Exchange (MIBTEL) Index (% ch)* 18.9 15.6 9.8 -44.9 23/10/08**Notes: * Average over year; ** % change on 31/12/07 Sources: OECD, ISTAT, BIS, Banca d’Italia, daily press

ITALY

ITALY


Real GDP (sa)

1.20

1.22

1.24

1.26

1.28

1.30Q

1-03

Q3-

03

Q1-

04

Q3-

04

Q1-

05

Q3-

05

Q1-

06

Q3-

06

Q1-

07

Q3-

07

Q1-

08

-1

0

1

2

3

4Level (€tn at 2000 prices, ar)Yoy % ch (rhs)


-5

-3

-1

1

3

5

Q1-

03

Q3-

03

Q1-

04

Q3-

04

Q1-

05

Q3-

05

Q1-

06

Q3-

06

Q1-

07

Q3-

07

Q1-

08



-9

-6

-3

0

3

6

1-05

4-05

7-05

10-0

51-

064-

067-

0610

-06

1-07

4-07

7-07

10-0

71-

084-

087-

08



-12

-6

0

6

12

1-05

4-05

7-05

10-0

51-

064-

067-

0610

-06

1-07

4-07

7-07

10-0

71-

084-

087-

08

-28

-24

-20

-16

-12



0

2

4

6

8

10

1-05

4-05

7-05

10-0

51-

064-

067-

0610

-06

1-07

4-07

7-07

10-0

71-

084-

087-

08

CPI PPI


108

110

112

114

116

1-05

4-05

7-05

10-0

51-

064-

067-

0610

-06

1-07

4-07

7-07

10-0

71-

084-

087-

08

(2000=100)


3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

1-05

4-05

7-05

10-0

51-

064-

067-

0610

-06

1-07

4-07

7-07

10-0

71-

084-

087-

0810

-08

Stock Market Index (MIBTEL,'000)

14

18

22

26

30

34

38

1-05

4-05

7-05

10-0

51-

064-

067-

0610

-06

1-07

4-07

7-07

10-0

71-

084-

087-

0810

-08

Sources: OECD, ISTAT, BIS, daily press

ITALY



(sa)

123

126

129

132

135

138

Q1-

03

Q3-

03

Q1-

04

Q3-

04

Q1-

05

Q3-

05

Q1-

06

Q3-

06

Q1-

07

Q3-

07

Q1-

08

-3

0

3

6


Construction Investment by Type (level, €bn at 2000 prices, saar)

45

55

65

75

85

Q1-

03

Q3-

03

Q1-

04

Q3-

04

Q1-

05

Q3-

05

Q1-

06

Q3-

06

Q1-

07

Q3-

07

Q1-

08

Residential Other construction


1.70

1.75

1.80

1.85

1.90

1.95

2.00

Q1-

03

Q3-

03

Q1-

04

Q3-

04

Q1-

05

Q3-

05

Q1-

06

Q3-

06

Q1-

07

Q3-

07

Q1-

08Construction Confidence Indicator

(% balance, sa)

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

1-05

4-05

7-05

10-0

51-

064-

067-

0610

-06

1-07

4-07

7-07

10-0

71-

084-

087-

08

ItalyEuro area


160

180

200

220

240

260

280

1-05

4-05

7-05

10-0

51-

064-

067-

0610

-06

1-07

4-07

7-07

10-0

71-

084-

087-

08

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

Level (€bn)Yoy % ch (rhs)

Construction Production Index (sa)

110

115

120

125

130

135

Q1-

03

Q3-

03

Q1-

04

Q3-

04

Q1-

05

Q3-

05

Q1-

06

Q3-

06

Q1-

07

Q3-

07

Q1-

08

(2000=100)

Sources: ISTAT, European Commission, Banca d'Italia

SPAIN


Real Indicators* 2005 2006 2007 Latest GDP (wda) 3.6 3.9 3.7 1.8 Q2 Industrial Production 0.8 3.9 1.9 -1.8 Aug** Construction Investment 6.1 5.9 3.8 -2.0 Q2 Consumer Prices - Harmonised Index*** 3.4 3.6 2.8 4.6 Sep Producer Prices - Manufacturing*** 4.9 5.3 3.3 9.2 Aug Hourly Earnings*** 3.5 4.2 3.4 1.5 Q2 Standardised Unemployment Rate (%) 9.2 8.5 8.3 11.3 Aug Current Account Balance (€bn) -66.9 -87.7 -105.9 -112.7 Q2° as a percentage of GDP -7.4 -8.9 -10.1 -10.4 Real Effective Exchange Rate Index§ 114.4 115.9 118.0 120.0 Sep Notes: * yoy % ch, sa, unless otherwise indicated; ** mom % ch; *** nsa; ° latest 12 months up to Q2 included; § 2000=100


Short Term Interest Rate pa (Euro Libor 3m) 2.18 3.08 4.28 5.02 Sep Long Term Interest Rate pa (benchmark 10y) 3.39 3.78 4.31 4.57 Sep Stock Exchange (MSE) Index (% ch)* 23.3 24.9 23.1 -42.5 23/10/08**Notes: * Average over year; ** % change on 31/12/07 Sources: OECD, INE, BIS, daily press

SPAIN

SPAIN


Real GDP(sa)

650

680

710

740

770

800

830Q

1-03

Q3-

03

Q1-

04

Q3-

04

Q1-

05

Q3-

05

Q1-

06

Q3-

06

Q1-

07

Q3-

07

Q1-

08

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5Level (€bn at 2000 prices, ar)Yoy % ch (rhs)


-1.5

0.0

1.5

3.04.5

6.0

7.5

9.0

Q1-

03

Q3-

03

Q1-

04

Q3-

04

Q1-

05

Q3-

05

Q1-

06

Q3-

06

Q1-

07

Q3-

07

Q1-

08


-9

-6

-3

0

3

6

1-05

4-05

7-05

10-0

51-

064-

067-

0610

-06

1-07

4-07

7-07

10-0

71-

084-

087-

08




-30

-20

-10

0

10

1-05

4-05

7-05

10-0

51-

064-

067-

0610

-06

1-07

4-07

7-07

10-0

71-

084-

087-

08

-40

-30

-20

-10

0



0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1-05

4-05

7-05

10-0

51-

064-

067-

0610

-06

1-07

4-07

7-07

10-0

71-

084-

087-

08



112

114

116

118

120

122

124

1-05

4-05

7-05

10-0

51-

064-

067-

0610

-06

1-07

4-07

7-07

10-0

71-

084-

087-

08

(2000=100)


2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

1-05

4-05

7-05

10-0

51-

064-

067-

0610

-06

1-07

4-07

7-07

10-0

71-

084-

087-

0810

-08

Stock Market Index (MADRID, '000)

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

1-05

4-05

7-05

10-0

51-

064-

067-

0610

-06

1-07

4-07

7-07

10-0

71-

084-

087-

0810

-08

Sources: OECD, INE, BIS, daily press

SPAIN


Business Conditions in the Construction Sector Construction Investment (sa)

90

100

110

120

130Q

1-03

Q3-

03

Q1-

04

Q3-

04

Q1-

05

Q3-

05

Q1-

06

Q3-

06

Q1-

07

Q3-

07

Q1-

08

-3

0

3

6


Housing Activity (12m ma)

70

85

100

115

130

145

160

175

1-05

4-05

7-05

10-0

51-

064-

067-

0610

-06

1-07

4-07

7-07

10-0

71-

084-

087-

08

Works completedPermits issued (Jan 2003=100)


2.0

2.2

2.4

2.6

2.8

Q1-

03

Q3-

03

Q1-

04

Q3-

04

Q1-

05

Q3-

05

Q1-

06

Q3-

06

Q1-

07

Q3-

07

Q1-

08


110

117

124

131

138

145

1-05

4-05

7-05

10-0

51-

064-

067-

0610

-06

1-07

4-07

7-07

10-0

71-

084-

087-

08

-35

-20

-5

10

25

40



185

270

355

440

525

610

695

Q1-

03

Q3-

03

Q1-

04

Q3-

04

Q1-

05

Q3-

05

Q1-

06

Q3-

06

Q1-

07

Q3-

07

Q1-

08

8

13

18

23

28

33

38Level (€bn)Yoy % ch (rhs)

120

135

150

165

180

195

Q1-

03

Q3-

03

Q1-

04

Q3-

04

Q1-

05

Q3-

05

Q1-

06

Q3-

06

Q1-

07

Q3-

07

Q1-

08


(2000=100)

Residential Investment and Real Housing Price

Sources: INE, European Commission, Banco de Espana, OECD

GREECE


Real Indicators* 2005 2006 2007 Latest GDP 3.9 4.1 4.0 3.5 Q2 Industrial Production -0.7 0.6 2.0 1.6 Jul** Construction Investment -1.0 21.6 1.9 Consumer Prices - Harmonised Index*** 3.5 3.3 3.0 4.7 Sep Producer Prices – Manufacturing*** 5.4 6.4 2.7 11.1 Aug Standardised Unemployment Rate (%) 9.9 8.9 8.3 7.5 Q2 Current Account Balance (€bn) *** -14.3 -23.7 -32.4 -34.8 Q2° as a percentage of GDP -7.2 -11.1 -14.2 -14.7 Real Effective Exchange Rate Index§ 113.2 113.9 116.2 114.0 Sep Notes: * yoy % ch, sa, unless otherwise indicated; ** mom % ch; *** nsa; ° latest 12 months up to Q2 included; § 2000=100


Short Term Interest Rate pa 2.18 3.08 4.28 5.02 Sep Long Term Interest Rate pa (benchmark 10y) 3.59 4.07 4.50 4.88 Sep Stock Exchange (ASE) Index (% ch)* 29.4 26.8 22.2 -63.0 23/10/08**Notes: * Average over year; ** % change on 31/12/07 Sources: OECD, National Bank of Greece, European Commission, BIS, daily press

GREECE

GREECE


Real GDP(sa)

140

150

160

170

180

190

200Q

1-03

Q3-

03

Q1-

04

Q3-

04

Q1-

05

Q3-

05

Q1-

06

Q3-

06

Q1-

07

Q3-

07

Q1-

08

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5Level (€bn at 2000 prices, ar)Yoy % ch (rhs)


-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

1-05

4-05

7-05

10-0

51-

064-

067-

0610

-06

1-07

4-07

7-07

10-0

71-

084-

087-

08



-1

2

5

8

11

14

1-05

4-05

7-05

10-0

51-

064-

067-

0610

-06

1-07

4-07

7-07

10-0

71-

084-

087-

08CPIPPI Manufacturing


-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

1-05

4-05

7-05

10-0

51-

064-

067-

0610

-06

1-07

4-07

7-07

10-0

71-

084-

087-

08

-55

-49

-43

-37

-31

-25

-19


Retail Sales Volume Index (sa)

115

120

125

130

135

140

1-05

4-05

7-05

10-0

51-

064-

067-

0610

-06

1-07

4-07

7-07

10-0

71-

084-

087-

08

(2000=100)


109

112

115

118

121

124

1-05

4-05

7-05

10-0

51-

064-

067-

0610

-06

1-07

4-07

7-07

10-0

71-

084-

087-

08

(2000=100)


3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

1-05

4-05

7-05

10-0

51-

064-

067-

0610

-06

1-07

4-07

7-07

10-0

71-

084-

087-

08

Construction Confidence Indicator (% balance, sa)

-60

-45

-30

-15

0

15

1-05

4-05

7-05

10-0

51-

064-

067-

0610

-06

1-07

4-07

7-07

10-0

71-

084-

087-

08

Sources: OECD, BIS, European Commission

BULGARIA


Real Indicators* 2005 2006 2007 Latest GDP 6.2 6.3 6.2 7.1 Q2 Gross Fixed Capital Investment 23.2 14.7 21.7 28.6 Q2 Industrial Production - Manufacturing 8.1 7.3 8.3 -6.3 Aug Consumer Prices 5.0 7.3 8.4 11.0 Sep Producer Prices - Manufacturing 7.2 6.3 7.6 16.4 Aug Unemployment Rate (%) 11.5 9.6 7.7 5.8 Sep Current Account Balance (US$bn) -3.4 -5.7 -8.6 -10.6 Q2° as a percentage of GDP -12.4 -17.8 -21.5 -22.6 Real Effective Exchange Rate Index§ 121.1 126.5 134.3 146.8 Sep Notes: * yoy % ch, nsa, unless otherwise indicated; ° latest 12 months up to Q2 included; § 2000=100


Short Term Interest Rate pa (sofibor o/n) 2.1 2.9 4.1 5.4 Aug Short Term Interest Rate pa (sofibor 3m) 3.6 3.7 4.9 7.3 Aug Long Term Interest Rate pa (benchmark 10y) 3.9 4.2 4.5 5.2 Sep Sources: National Statistics Institute, BIS, National Bank of Bulgaria

BULGARIA

BULGARIA


Real GDP

0.5

0.7

0.9

1.1

1.3

1.5

1.7Q

1-03

Q3-

03

Q1-

04

Q3-

04

Q1-

05

Q3-

05

Q1-

06

Q3-

06

Q1-

07

Q3-

07

Q1-

08

4

5

6

7

8Level (BGNbn at 1995 prices, ar)Yoy % ch (rhs)

Private Consumption and Total Investment (yoy % ch)

0

10

20

30

40

Q1-

03

Q3-

03

Q1-

04

Q3-

04

Q1-

05

Q3-

05

Q1-

06

Q3-

06

Q1-

07

Q3-

07

Q1-

08


Industrial Production-Manufacturing (yoy % ch)

-8

-4

0

4

8

12

16

1-05

4-05

7-05

10-0

51-

064-

067-

0610

-06

1-07

4-07

7-07

10-0

71-

084-

087-

08

Confidence Indicators (% balance, sa)

-5

0

5

10

15

1-05

4-05

7-05

10-0

51-

064-

067-

0610

-06

1-07

4-07

7-07

10-0

71-

084-

087-

08

-40

-25

-10

5

20Manufacturing (lhs)Consumer Construction


0

4

8

12

16

20

1-05

4-05

7-05

10-0

51-

064-

067-

0610

-06

1-07

4-07

7-07

10-0

71-

084-

087-

08


Interest Rates (monthly averages % pa)

1

3

5

7

9

11

1-05

4-05

7-05

10-0

51-

064-

067-

0610

-06

1-07

4-07

7-07

10-0

71-

084-

087-

0810

-08

Central Bank baseLendingBenchmark 10y


115

121

127

133

139

145

151

1-05

4-05

7-05

10-0

51-

064-

067-

0610

-06

1-07

4-07

7-07

10-0

71-

084-

087-

08

(2000=100)80

86

92

98

104

110

116

122

1-05

4-05

7-05

10-0

51-

064-

067-

0610

-06

1-07

4-07

7-07

10-0

71-

084-

087-

0810

-08

(1/1/2005=100)

Lev/US$ Index

Sources: National Statistics Institute, National Bank of Bulgaria, BIS, daily press

EGYPT


Real Indicators* 2005 2006 2007 Latest GDP 5.6 7.0 7.3 6.8 Q2 Construction Production (Gross Value Added) 10.3 10.7 16.2 14.3 Q2 Consumer Prices 4.9 7.6 9.4 21.5 Sep Producer Prices** 29.5 Aug Unemployment Rate (%) 11.0 10.7 9.0 9.0 Q1 Current Account Balance (US$bn) 2.0 2.5 0.2 0.2 Q2° as a percentage of GDP 2.1 2.1 0.2 0.6

Real Effective Exchange Rate Index§ 72.7 75.8 79.7 80.5 Dec

Notes: * yoy % ch, nsa, unless otherwise indicated; national accounts data are shown on a solar year basis after transforming the original fiscal year data; **new series; ° latest 12 months up to Q2 included; § 2000=100


Discount Rate (end of period) 10.0 9.0 9.0 11.5 Oct Short Term Interest Rate pa (91 days T-Bill) 9.5 8.8 7.6 13.1 Sep Stock Exchange (HERMES) Index (% ch)* 169.4 10.7** 29.2 -52.0 23/10/08° Notes: * Average over year; CSE Index for 2005, new series starting from 01/01/2006: HERMES Index; ** yoy % ch at year-end; ° % change on 31/12/07 Sources: Central Bank of Egypt, Central Agency for Public Mobilization And Statistics, SESO's calculation, daily press

EGYPT

EGYPT


Real GDP

360

395

430

465

500

535

570Q

3-03

Q1-

04

Q3-

04

Q1-

05

Q3-

05

Q1-

06

Q3-

06

Q1-

07

Q3-

07

Q1-

08

3

4

5

6

7

8

9Level (EGPbn at 01-02 prices, ar)

Yoy % ch (rhs)

Foreign Trade (US$ bn)

02468

10121416

Q1-

03

Q3-

03

Q1-

04

Q3-

04

Q1-

05

Q3-

05

Q1-

06

Q3-

06

Q1-

07

Q3-

07

Q1-

08

ExportsImports

Consumer Price Index (yoy % ch)

0

4

8

12

16

20

24

1-05

4-05

7-05

10-0

51-

064-

067-

0610

-06

1-07

4-07

7-07

10-0

71-

084-

087-

08

Short Term Interest Rates(monthly averages % pa)

56789

1011121314

1-05

4-05

7-05

10-0

51-

064-

067-

0610

-06

1-07

4-07

7-07

10-0

71-

084-

087-

0810

-08

Central Bank baseInterbank 1wT-bill 3m

Stock Market Index(CASE30 '000)

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1-05

4-05

7-05

10-0

51-

064-

067-

0610

-06

1-07

4-07

7-07

10-0

71-

084-

087-

0810

-08

Pound/US$ Index

84

87

90

93

96

99

102

1-05

4-05

7-05

10-0

51-

064-

067-

0610

-06

1-07

4-07

7-07

10-0

71-

084-

087-

0810

-08

(1/1/2005=100)

Sources: Central Bank of Egypt, CAPMAS, daily press

MOROCCO


Real Indicators* 2005 2006 2007 Latest GDP 3.0 7.8 2.7 6.4 Q2 Construction Production (Gross Value Added) 6.1 8.7 11.7 10.6 Q2 Industrial Production 2.6 3.7 4.7 4.2 Q2 Consumer Prices 1.0 3.3 2.0 3.9 Sep Producer Prices - Manufacturing 9.1 5.9 1.8 27.1 Aug Urban Unemployment Rate (%) 18.4 15.5 15.4 14.0 Q2 Current Account Balance (US$bn) 1.1 1.4 -0.1 -2.1 Q2° as a percentage of GDP 1.9 2.2 -0.1 -2.5 Real Effective Exchange Rate Index§ 91.8 92.9 92.6 94.5 Jun Notes: * yoy % ch, nsa, unless otherwise indicated; ° latest 12 months up to Q2 included; § 2000=100


Short Term Interest Rate pa 2.8 2.6 3.3 3.0 Sep Stock Exchange (MASI) Index (% ch)* 10.9 57.2 55.1 -4.5 23/10/08**Notes: * Average over year; ** % change on 31/12/07 Sources: Direction de la Statistique du Maroc, Haut Commissariat au Plan, IMF, daily press

MOROCCO

MOROCCO


Real GDP

(sa)

100

110

120

130

140

150

160Q

1-03

Q3-

03

Q1-

04

Q3-

04

Q1-

05

Q3-

05

Q1-

06

Q3-

06

Q1-

07

Q3-

07

Q1-

08

0

2

4

6

8

10

12Level (MADbn at 1998 prices, ar)Yoy % ch (rhs)


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Q1-

03

Q3-

03

Q1-

04

Q3-

04

Q1-

05

Q3-

05

Q1-

06

Q3-

06

Q1-

07

Q3-

07

Q1-

08

Consumer and Producer Price Indices(yoy % ch)

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1-05

4-05

7-05

10-0

51-

064-

067-

0610

-06

1-07

4-07

7-07

10-0

71-

084-

087-

08CPIPPI Manufacturing

Foreign Trade(US$ bn)

0

1

2

3

4

5

1-05

4-05

7-05

10-0

51-

064-

067-

0610

-06

1-07

4-07

7-07

10-0

71-

084-

087-

08

ExportsImports

Short Term Interest Rates (Interbank, monthly averages % pa)

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

1-05

4-05

7-05

10-0

51-

064-

067-

0610

-06

1-07

4-07

7-07

10-0

71-

084-

087-

08

Stock Market Index(CASE30 '000)

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1-05

4-05

7-05

10-0

51-

064-

067-

0610

-06

1-07

4-07

7-07

10-0

71-

084-

087-

0810

-08


91

92

93

94

95

1-05

4-05

7-05

10-0

5

1-06

4-06

7-06

10-0

6

1-07

4-07

7-07

10-0

7

1-08

4-08

(2000=100)85

90

95

100

105

110

115

1-05

4-05

7-05

10-0

51-

064-

067-

0610

-06

1-07

4-07

7-07

10-0

71-

084-

087-

0810

-08

97

98

99

100

101

102

103MAD/$MAD/€ (rhs)

(1/1/2005=100)

Dirham/US$ and Dirham/€ Indices (5d ma)

Sources: Direction de la Statistique du Maroc, Haut Commissariat au Plan, Office des Change, IMF, daily press

TURKEY


Real Indicators* 2005 2006 2007 Latest GDP** 8.4 6.9 4.6 1.9 Q2 Industrial Production** 5.4 5.9 5.3 -8.0 Aug*** Construction Investment 10.9 17.8 6.0 -1.4 Q2 Consumer Prices 8.2 9.6 8.8 11.1 Sep Producer Prices - Manufacturing 7.6 9.3 5.6 12.7 Sep Unemployment Rate (%) 10.2 9.9 9.8 9.4 Jul Current Account Balance (US$bn)** -22.1 -31.9 -37.7 -45.8 Q2° as a percentage of GDP -4.6 -6.0 -5.7 -6.1 Real Effective Exchange Rate Index§ 108.1 107.3 116.7 126.2 Sep Notes: * yoy % ch, nsa, unless otherwise indicated; ** sa; *** mom % ch ; ° latest 12 months up to Q2 included; § 2000=100


Short Term Interest Rate pa (o/n) 14.8 15.6 17.2 16.5 Sep Stock Exchange (IMBK) Index (% ch)* 47.9 35.5 21.1 -54.9 23/10/08**Notes: * Average over year; ** % change on 31/12/07 Sources: OECD, BIS, Central Bank of Turkey, daily press

TURKEY

TURKEY


Real GDP

(sa)

65

75

85

95

105

115Q

1-03

Q3-

03

Q1-

04

Q3-

04

Q1-

05

Q3-

05

Q1-

06

Q3-

06

Q1-

07

Q3-

07

Q1-

08

0

3

6

9

12

15Level (YTLmn at 1998 prices, ar)Yoy %ch (rhs)


-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

Q1-

03

Q3-

03

Q1-

04

Q3-

04

Q1-

05

Q3-

05

Q1-

06

Q3-

06

Q1-

07

Q3-

07

Q1-

08


Consumer Confidence Indicator(sa)

74

79

84

89

94

99

104

109

1-05

4-05

7-05

10-0

51-

064-

067-

0610

-06

1-07

4-07

7-07

10-0

71-

084-

087-

08

(100 = normal)

Industrial Production (3m ma, yoy % ch)

0

2

4

6

8

10

1-05

4-05

7-05

10-0

51-

064-

067-

0610

-06

1-07

4-07

7-07

10-0

71-

084-

087-

08


0

4

8

12

16

20

1-05

4-05

7-05

10-0

51-

064-

067-

0610

-06

1-07

4-07

7-07

10-0

71-

084-

087-

08



12

14

16

18

20

22

1-05

4-05

7-05

10-0

51-

064-

067-

0610

-06

1-07

4-07

7-07

10-0

71-

084-

087-

08

Interbank o/nT-bill 3m


95

100

105

110

115

120

125

130

1-05

4-05

7-05

10-0

51-

064-

067-

0610

-06

1-07

4-07

7-07

10-0

71-

084-

087-

08

(2000=100)

Stock Exchange and Lira/US$ Indices

20

28

36

44

52

60

1-05

4-05

7-05

10-0

51-

064-

067-

0610

-06

1-07

4-07

7-07

10-0

71-

084-

087-

0810

-08

80

90

100

110

120

130

IMBK ('000)YTL/US$ (1/1/2005=100, rhs)

Sources: OECD, BIS, Central Bank of Turkey, daily press

TURKEY



5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12Q

1-03

Q3-

03

Q1-

04

Q3-

04

Q1-

05

Q3-

05

Q1-

06

Q3-

06

Q1-

07

Q3-

07

Q1-

08

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

Level (YTLmn at 1998 prices, ar)Yoy % ch (rhs)

Works Completed (mn m2, 12m ma)

1

2

3

4

5

6

1-05

4-05

7-05

10-0

5

1-06

4-06

7-06

10-0

6

1-07

4-07

Non residentialResidential

Construction Employment (mn, 4Q ma)

0.85

0.95

1.05

1.15

1.25

1.35

Q1-

03

Q3-

03

Q1-

04

Q3-

04

Q1-

05

Q3-

05

Q1-

06

Q3-

06

Q1-

07

Q3-

07

Q1-

08

Total Buildings Permits Issued (mn m2, 12m ma)

4

6

8

10

12

1-05

4-05

7-05

10-0

51-

064-

067-

0610

-06

1-07

4-07

7-07

10-0

71-

084-

08

Sources: OECD, SIS (State Institute of Statistics)

THAILAND


Real Indicators* 2005 2006 2007 Latest GDP 4.5 5.1 4.8 5.4 Q2 Industrial Production – Manufacturing 9.1 7.3 8.2 0.0 Aug** Construction Investment 5.8 4.5 2.7 -2.4 Q2 Consumer Prices*** 4.5 4.6 2.2 6.0 Sep Producer Prices*** 9.1 7.1 3.2 19.0 Sep Unemployment Rate (%)*** 1.9 1.5 1.4 1.3 Jul Current Account Balance (US$bn) -7.6 2.2 15.8 12.7 Q2° as a percentage of GDP -4.3 1.0 6.4 4.8 Real Effective Exchange Rate Index§ 97.0 105.3 111.5 109.4 Sep Notes: * yoy % ch, sa, unless otherwise indicated; ** mom % ch; *** nsa; ° latest 12 months up to Q2 included; § 2000=100


Short Term Interest Rate pa (o/n) 2.6 4.6 3.8 3.7 Sep Stock Exchange Index (Bangkok) (% change)* 4.1 4.2 6.5 -45.8 23/10/08**Notes: * Average over year; ** % change on 31/12/07 Sources: Bank of Thailand, National Economic and Social Development Board, BIS, daily press

THAILAND

THAILAND


Real GDP(sa)

3.0

3.3

3.6

3.9

4.2

4.5

4.8Q

1-03

Q3-

03

Q1-

04

Q3-

04

Q1-

05

Q3-

05

Q1-

06

Q3-

06

Q1-

07

Q3-

07

Q1-

08

3

4

5

6

7

8

9Level (THBtn at 1988 prices, ar)Yoy % ch (rhs)


-5

0

5

10

15

20

Q1-

03

Q3-

03

Q1-

04

Q3-

04

Q1-

05

Q3-

05

Q1-

06

Q3-

06

Q1-

07

Q3-

07

Q1-

08


0

3

6

9

12

15

18

1-05

4-05

7-05

10-0

51-

064-

067-

0610

-06

1-07

4-07

7-07

10-0

71-

084-

087-

08

-8-6

-4-2

02

46

IP-Manufacturing (3m ma)LEI (6m smoothed, rhs)

(LEI %ch steadily <-2% signals slowdown)

Industrial Production (IP) and Leading Economic Indicator (LEI) (yoy % ch)


0

4

8

12

16

20

24

1-05

4-05

7-05

10-0

51-

064-

067-

0610

-06

1-07

4-07

7-07

10-0

71-

084-

087-

08

CPIPPI

Short Term Interest Rates(monthly averages, % pa)

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1-05

4-05

7-05

10-0

51-

064-

067-

0610

-06

1-07

4-07

7-07

10-0

71-

084-

087-

0810

-08

Central Bank baseInterbank 3mLending

Stock Market Index (BANGKOK)

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1-05

4-05

7-05

10-0

51-

064-

067-

0610

-06

1-07

4-07

7-07

10-0

71-

084-

087-

0810

-08


90

95

100

105

110

115

120

1-05

4-05

7-05

10-0

51-

064-

067-

0610

-06

1-07

4-07

7-07

10-0

71-

084-

087-

08

(2000=100)

Baht/US$ Index

72

79

86

93

100

107

114

1-05

4-05

7-05

10-0

51-

064-

067-

0610

-06

1-07

4-07

7-07

10-0

71-

084-

087-

0810

-08

(1/1/2005=100)

Sources: NESDB, Bank of Thailand, daily press, BIS

THAILAND



(sa)

240

260

280

300

320

340

Q1-

03

Q3-

03

Q1-

04

Q3-

04

Q1-

05

Q3-

05

Q1-

06

Q3-

06

Q1-

07

Q3-

07

Q1-

08

-5

0

5

10

15

20Level (THBbn at 1988 prices, ar)Yoy % ch (rhs)

Construction Investment by Type (THBbn at 1988 prices, saar)

100

120

140

160

180

200

Q1-

03

Q3-

03

Q1-

04

Q3-

04

Q1-

05

Q3-

05

Q1-

06

Q3-

06

Q1-

07

Q3-

07

Q1-

08

PrivatePublic

Construction Employment (mn, 4Q ma)

1.75

1.85

1.95

2.05

2.15

2.25

Q1-

03

Q3-

03

Q1-

04

Q3-

04

Q1-

05

Q3-

05

Q1-

06

Q3-

06

Q1-

07

Q3-

07

Q1-

08

Construction Materials Production

125

135

145

155

165

175

1-05

4-05

7-05

10-0

51-

064-

067-

0610

-06

1-07

4-07

7-07

10-0

71-

084-

087-

08

(2000=100)

Construction Areas Permitted (mn m2, 12m ma)

0.7

0.80.9

1.0

1.1

1.21.3

1.4

1-05

4-05

7-05

10-0

51-

064-

067-

0610

-06

1-07

4-07

7-07

10-0

71-

084-

087-

08

ResidentialNon residential

Housing Starts in Bangkok and Vicinity (12m ma)

5.3

5.6

5.9

6.2

6.5

6.8

1-05

4-05

7-05

10-0

51-

064-

067-

0610

-06

1-07

4-07

7-07

10-0

71-

084-

08

Source: Bank of Thailand

INDIA


Real Indicators* 2005 2006 2007 Latest GDP** 9.1 9.8 9.3 7.9 Q2 Industrial Production - Manufacturing 9.0 11.5 10.6 1.1 Aug Construction Production (Gross Value Added) 16.1 13.4 9.6 11.3 Q2 Consumer Prices 4.2 6.2 6.4 9.0 Aug Wholesale Prices 4.7 4.8 4.8 12.0 Sep Current Account Balance (US$bn)** -10.3 -9.5 -12.1 -21.8 Q2° as a percentage of GDP -1.4 -1.2 -1.2 -2.0 Real Effective Exchange Rate Index§ 103.7 102.1 109.0 103.1 Sep Notes: * yoy % ch, nsa, unless otherwise indicated; national accounts data are shown on a solar year basis after transforming the original fiscal year data; ** sa; ° latest 12 months up to Q2 included; § 2000=100


Short Term Interest Rate pa (91-day T-bills) 5.4 6.4 7.2 8.7 Sep Prime Lending Rate 10.5 10.9 12.7 13.7 Sep Stock Exchange Index (Mumbai) (% ch)* 32.7 54.7 35.6 -51.8 23/10/08**Notes: * Average over year; ** % change on 31/12/07 Sources: Reserve Bank of India, BIS, Office of Economic Advisor, Labour Bureau, Statistics India, daily press

INDIA

INDIA


Real GDP

(sa)

18

21

24

27

30

33

36

Q1-

03

Q3-

03

Q1-

04

Q3-

04

Q1-

05

Q3-

05

Q1-

06

Q3-

06

Q1-

07

Q3-

07

Q1-

08

3

5

7

9

11

13

15Level (INRtn at 99-00 prices, ar)Yoy % ch (rhs)

Real Construction Value Added (level and yoy % ch, ar)

1.0

1.3

1.6

1.9

2.2

2.5

2.8

Q1-

03

Q3-

03

Q1-

04

Q3-

04

Q1-

05

Q3-

05

Q1-

06

Q3-

06

Q1-

07

Q3-

07

Q1-

08

5

8

11

14

17

20

23Level (INRtn at 99-00 prices, ar)Grow th (rhs)


0

3

6

9

12

15

18

1-05

4-05

7-05

10-0

51-

064-

067-

0610

-06

1-07

4-07

7-07

10-0

71-

084-

087-

08

Consumer and Wholesale Price Indices (yoy % ch)

0

3

6

9

12

15

1-05

4-05

7-05

10-0

51-

064-

067-

0610

-06

1-07

4-07

7-07

10-0

71-

084-

087-

08

CPIWPI

Short Term Interest Rates (monthly averages % pa)

4

6

8

10

12

14

1-05

4-05

7-05

10-0

51-

064-

067-

0610

-06

1-07

4-07

7-07

10-0

71-

084-

087-

08

Central Bank baseLendingT-bill 3m

Stock Market Index (MUMBAI, '000)

5

10

15

20

25

1-05

4-05

7-05

10-0

51-

064-

067-

0610

-06

1-07

4-07

7-07

10-0

71-

084-

087-

0810

-08


95

100

105

110

115

1-05

4-05

7-05

10-0

51-

064-

067-

0610

-06

1-07

4-07

7-07

10-0

71-

084-

087-

08

(2000=100)

Rupee/US$ Index

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

1-05

4-05

7-05

10-0

51-

064-

067-

0610

-06

1-07

4-07

7-07

10-0

71-

084-

087-

0810

-08

(1/1/2005=100)

Sources: Reserve Bank of India, Office of Economic Advisor, Labour Bureau, Statistics India, BIS, daily press

CHINA


Real Indicators* 2005 2006 2007 Latest GDP 10.4 11.6 11.9 9.0 Q3 Industrial Production 16.4 16.6 18.5 11.4 Sep Consumer Prices 1.8 1.5 4.8 4.6 Sep Producer Prices 4.9 3.0 3.1 9.1 Sep Trade Balance (US$bn) 102.0 177.4 261.9 248.6 Q2° as a percentage of GDP 1.9 2.8 3.4 3.0 Real Effective Exchange Rate Index§ 91.4 92.9 96.7 108.7 Sep Notes: * yoy % ch, nsa, unless otherwise indicated; ° latest 12 months up to Q2 included; § 2000=100


1Y Lending Rate 5.6 5.9 6.8 6.9 Oct Stock Exchange Index (Shanghai) (% ch)* -22.2 39.6 160.7 -64.4 23/10/08**Notes: * Average over year; ** % change on 31/12/07 Sources: National Bureau of Statistics, OECD, EIU, People's Bank of China, daily press

CHINA

CHINA


Real GDP(yoy % ch)

9.0

9.5

10.0

10.5

11.0

11.5

12.0Q

1-03

Q3-

03

Q1-

04

Q3-

04

Q1-

05

Q3-

05

Q1-

06

Q3-

06

Q1-

07

Q3-

07

Q1-

08

Q3-

08


8

10

12

14

16

18

20

1-05

4-05

7-05

10-0

51-

064-

067-

0610

-06

1-07

4-07

7-07

10-0

71-

084-

087-

08


Confidence Indicators(sa)

95

98

101

104

107

110

1-05

4-05

7-05

10-0

51-

064-

067-

0610

-06

1-07

4-07

7-07

10-0

71-

084-

08ConsumerManufacturing


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1-05

4-05

7-05

10-0

51-

064-

067-

0610

-06

1-07

4-07

7-07

10-0

71-

084-

087-

08

CPIPPI


0

2

4

6

8

10

1-05

4-05

7-05

10-0

51-

064-

067-

0610

-06

1-07

4-07

7-07

10-0

71-

084-

087-

0810

-08

1Y BenchmarkLending1Y Benchmark Deposit

Stock Market Index (SHANGHAI, composite index, '000 )

0.5

1.5

2.5

3.5

4.5

5.5

6.5

1-05

4-05

7-05

10-0

51-

064-

067-

0610

-06

1-07

4-07

7-07

10-0

71-

084-

087-

0810

-08


85

90

95

100

105

110

1-05

4-05

7-05

10-0

51-

064-

067-

0610

-06

1-07

4-07

7-07

10-0

71-

084-

087-

08

(2000=100)

Renminbi/US$ Index

80

85

90

95

100

105

1-05

4-05

7-05

10-0

51-

064-

067-

0610

-06

1-07

4-07

7-07

10-0

71-

084-

087-

0810

-08

(1/1/2005=100)

Sources: National Bureau of Statistics, OECD, EIU, People's Bank of China, daily press

KAZAKHSTAN


Real Indicators* 2005 2006 2007 Latest GDP 9.4 10.7 8.3 5.4 Q2 Industrial Production 5.3 6.3 5.0 1.6 Aug Consumer Prices 7.9 8.7 10.8 18.2 Sep Producer Prices 23.7 18.5 12.4 56.6 Aug Unemployment Rate (%) 8.0 7.6 7.2 6.6 Q2 Current Account Balance (US$bn) -1.1 -1.9 -7.2 1.7 Q2° as a percentage of GDP -1.8 -2.5 -6.9 1.5 Real Effective Exchange Rate Index§ 96.4 104.1 106.5 110.8 Aug Notes: * yoy % ch, nsa, unless otherwise indicated; ° latest 12 months up to Q2 included; § 2000=100


Refinancing Rate (end of period) 7.8 8.6 9.2 10.5 Sep Short Term Interest Rate pa (<1 year) 2.8 3.5 5.6 6.3 Sep Exchange Rate Tenge/$ 132.9 126.0 122.5 119.7 Sep Sources: National Bank of Kazakhstan, EIU, IMF, Interstate Statistical Committee of the CIS

KAZAKHSTAN

KAZAKHSTAN


Real GDP

400500600700

800900

1,0001,100

Q1-

03

Q3-

03

Q1-

04

Q3-

04

Q1-

05

Q3-

05

Q1-

06

Q3-

06

Q1-

07

Q3-

07

Q1-

08

4

6

8

10

12

14Level (KZTbn at 1994 prices, ar)Yoy % ch (rhs)

Industrial Production(yoy % ch)

-4

0

4

8

12

16

1-05

4-05

7-05

10-0

51-

064-

067-

0610

-06

1-07

4-07

7-07

10-0

71-

084-

087-

08


0

15

30

45

60

75

1-05

4-05

7-05

10-0

51-

064-

067-

0610

-06

1-07

4-07

7-07

10-0

71-

084-

087-

08CPIPPI

Interest Rates (monthly averages % pa)

0

2

4

6

8

10

1-05

4-05

7-05

10-0

51-

064-

067-

0610

-06

1-07

4-07

7-07

10-0

71-

084-

087-

08

Interbank depositsInterbank loansT-Bill 2y


90

95

100

105

110

115

1-05

4-05

7-05

10-0

51-

064-

067-

0610

-06

1-07

4-07

7-07

10-0

71-

084-

087-

08

(2000=100)

85

90

95

100

105

110

1-05

4-05

7-05

10-0

51-

064-

067-

0610

-06

1-07

4-07

7-07

10-0

71-

084-

087-

0810

-08

(1/1/2005=100)

Tenge/US$ Index

Source: National Bank of Kazakhstan

Documents

Economic Profile in ITC Group Countries · REAL INDICATORS Update – October, 24th 2008 ITALCEMENTI GROUP-SESO – Economic Profile page 1 yoy % ch (unless otherwise indicated) 2005