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January 2016
ECONOMIC BULLETIN Q3 2015
Increase in production and sales, stable employment
and a solid trade surplus
Food and drink industry
Increase in production and sales
In Q3 2015, EU food and drink industry production
increased by 1.3% and hence reversed the
downward trend of the previous two quarters.
EU food and drink industry turnover increased by
0.7% in Q3 2015, in contrast to the negative trend of
the previous quarter.
The year-on-year comparison shows that overall
manufacturing turnover performed better than food
and drink industry turnover (0.8% vs. 0.2%
compared to Q3 2014). The same trend applies to
production.
Food manufacturing prices remained stable for two
consecutive quarters, while a decrease of 1.7% was
observed compared to Q3 2014.
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Employment: stable in Q3
Employment in the EU food and drink industry
increased by 0.2% in Q3 2015.
Employment in the food and drink industry remained
on a positive growth trend and, on the long term,
continues to outperform the average employment
level growth in the manufacturing industry (Q3
2015/Q3 2010: +2.2% (food and drink industry) vs
+0.8% (manufacturing)).
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External trade: EU trade surplus grew thanks to
strong sub-sector export performance
The trade surplus reached €6.6 billion in Q3 2015
(Q3 2015/Q3 2014: +5%).
Extra-EU exports of food and drink products totalled
€25 billion in 2015 (Q3 2015/Q3 2014: +8.3%).
The top 5 best performing export products
generated €12.4 billion (spirits, meat, wine, dairy,
chocolate and confectionery).
Extra-EU imports of food and drink products
reached €18.4 billion (Q3 2015/Q3 2014: +9.5%).
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Agricultural commodities
Prices: FAO food price index continued to decline
Key factors behind this downward trend include:
abundant global supplies, a strong dollar, lower
energy prices and concerns over China’s economic
slowdown.
In Q3 2015, EU and world markets prices for most
agricultural commodities continued to fall.
Q3 2015 prices for corn and soft wheat registered a
noticeable increase compared to the same quarter
of 2014.
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Retail
Retail sales: mixed performance
Retail trade in foodstuffs increased in both July and
August, and remained unchanged in September
2015.
Year-on-year, retail trade in foodstuffs increased by
2.3% vs. 3.7% for total retail trade compared to
September 2014.
Consumer prices were slightly lower -0.9%
compared to Q2 2015 (+0.2% compared to Q3
2014).
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Methodology
Except for imports and exports data which represent evolution of the current quarter compared to the same
quarter of the previous year, all other evolutions are represented with respect to the previous quarter (or month)
of the same year.
EU refers to EU28 in the text, unless otherwise specified.
The EU food and drink industry is identified by NACE-rev2 codes C10 (food) and C11 (drinks).
Sources
Eurostat data and indices (production, turnover, retail trade, employment)
http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/home
Eurostat statistics explained
http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/Main_Page
Eurostat Easy Comext Trade Data (based on division 10 & 11 of the NACE Rev.2 classification)
http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/newxtweb/mainxtnet.do
FAO Food Price Index
http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/
European Commission, DG AGRI, Commodity price dashboard
http://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/markets-and-prices/price-monitoring/index_en.htm
Eurostat News Release 196/2015, ‘Volume of retail trade down by 0.1% in euro area - Up by 0.3% in EU28’,
5 November 2015 http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-press-releases/-/4-05112015-AP
About the quarterly economic bulletin
FoodDrinkEurope’s Economic Bulletin is published on a quarterly basis. It covers a set of key indicators which
highlight the major economic trends in the European food and drink industry: production, turnover, employment,
external trade, key raw material prices trade and retail trade.
For more information on FoodDrinkEurope and its activities, please visit: www.fooddrinkeurope.eu
ECONOMIC BULLETIN Q3 2015
Annex
Production and turnover of the EU food and drink industry Production index
2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 y-o-y
Total manufacturing 103.73 104.40 105.42 105.75 105.87
% change -0.1 0.6 1.0 0.3 0.1 2.1
Food and drink industry 103.20 103.90 103.61 103.30 104.62
% change -0.4 0.7 -0.3 -0.3 1.3 1.4
Source: Eurostat
The industrial production index (also called industrial output index or industrial volume index) measures the changes in the price adjusted-output of industry. Turnover index
2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 y-o-y
Total manufacturing 109.07 109.26 109.80 110.91 109.98
% change 0.2 0.2 0.5 1.0 -0.8 0.8
Food and drink industry 112.65 111.96 112.88 112.00 112.83
% change -1.5 -0.6 0.8 -0.8 0.7 0.2
Source: Eurostat
The index of industrial turnover measures the development of turnover (sales) in the European industry (it is influenced by changes in prices of the traded industrial goods and by changes of the traded volumes of goods).
Annex to Economic Bulletin Q3 2015 – Page 2 of 12
EU quarterly manufacturing production and turnover, 2010 - 2015 (2010=100)
Source: Eurostat
Food and drink production by Member State
Member State 2015 Q2 / 2015 Q1 (% change)
2015 Q3 / 2015 Q2 (% change)
2015 Q3/ 2014 Q3 (% change)
EU -0.3 1.3 1.4
Austria 3.1 2.8 3.3
Belgium 0.9 0.4 2.9
Bulgaria -2.7 -2.2 -1.0
Czech Republic -1.1 3.0 7.3
Denmark -3.1 1.9 1.1
Estonia 0.3 1.9 -2.2
Finland -1.1 2.4 -0.5
France 0.4 0.9 1.0
Germany -1.5 0.2 -1.1
Greece -1.7 -0.2 0.7
Hungary -1.5 1.6 5.1
Ireland 3.8 4.4 16.3
Italy -0.1 -0.3 0.2
Latvia -1.4 2.0 -2.5
Lithuania -0.7 1.1 4.5
Netherlands 1.9 0.2 1.6
Poland -3.0 3.3 4.4
Portugal 10.3 17.0 0.2
Romania -1.4 5.4 7.9
Spain 0.0 1.1 1.7
Sweden 1.4 -0.3 -5.2
Source: Eurostat. No data available for Croatia, Cyprus, Luxembourg, Malta, Slovakia, Slovenia, United Kingdom
95.00
97.00
99.00
101.00
103.00
105.00
107.00
109.00
111.00
113.00
115.002
01
0Q
1
20
10
Q2
20
10
Q3
20
10
Q4
20
11
Q1
20
11
Q2
20
11
Q3
20
11
Q4
20
12
Q1
20
12
Q2
20
12
Q3
20
12
Q4
20
13
Q1
20
13
Q2
20
13
Q3
20
13
Q4
20
14
Q1
20
14
Q2
20
14
Q3
20
14
Q4
20
15
Q1
20
15
Q2
20
15
Q3
Total manufacturing production Food and drink industry production
Total manufacturing turnover Food and drink industry turnover
Annex to Economic Bulletin Q3 2015 – Page 3 of 12
Food and drink turnover by Member State
Member State 2015 Q2 / 2015 Q1 (% change)
2015 Q3 / 2015 Q2 (% change)
2015 Q3/ 2014 Q3 (% change)
EU -0.8 0.7 0.2
Austria 1.1 1.0 4.1
Belgium 2.5 na na
Bulgaria -1.2 -3.7 0.2
Czech Republic -2.4 1.4 0.7
Denmark -4.0 3.3 -1.2
Estonia -2.3 1.5 -6.5
Finland -2.5 na na
France -0.2 1.2 1.4
Germany -1.4 0.7 -2.5
Greece -1.4 0.7 1.5
Hungary -1.3 -0.1 4.5
Ireland 2.7 -1.0 5.1
Italy -1.3 0.3 1.3
Latvia -2.3 -1.5 -4.3
Lithuania -0.2 1.2 0.1
Netherlands -0.2 -1.1 1.5
Poland -2.7 3.5 1.5
Portugal -0.4 1.6 2.1
Romania -2.8 6.9 7.7
Spain -0.3 -0.9 0.9
Sweden 1.6 -0.1 -3.1
Source: Eurostat. No data available for Croatia, Cyprus, Luxembourg, Malta, Slovakia, Slovenia, United Kingdom
Annex to Economic Bulletin Q3 2015 – Page 4 of 12
Employment in the EU food and drink industry Employment index
Employment (% change) 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 y-o-y
Total manufacturing 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.9
Food and drink industry 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.8
Source: Eurostat
The labour input measures the number of persons employed in the total manufacturing industry vs. the food and drink industry in the EU, seasonally adjusted. Employment in the EU food and drink industry compared to total manufacturing, 2010-2015 (2010=100)
Source: Eurostat
98.00
98.50
99.00
99.50
100.00
100.50
101.00
101.50
102.00
102.50
20
10
Q1
20
10
Q2
20
10
Q3
20
10
Q4
20
11
Q1
20
11
Q2
20
11
Q3
20
11
Q4
20
12
Q1
20
12
Q2
20
12
Q3
20
12
Q4
20
13
Q1
20
13
Q2
20
13
Q3
20
13
Q4
20
14
Q1
20
14
Q2
20
14
Q3
20
14
Q4
20
15
Q1
20
15
Q2
20
15
Q3
Manufacturing Manufacture of food products and beveragesFood and drink industry
Annex to Economic Bulletin Q3 2015 – Page 5 of 12
Food and drink industry employment by Member State
Source: Eurostat. No data available for Cyprus, Greece (discontinued), Hungary, Italy, Luxembourg, Malta, Slovakia, Slovenia, United Kingdom
Member State 2015 Q2 / 2015 Q1 (% change)
2015 Q3 / 2015 Q2 (% change)
2015 Q3/ 2014 Q3 (% change)
EU 0.1 0.2 0.8
Austria 0.2 0.2 1.3
Belgium 0.3 na na
Bulgaria -1.4 -0.1 -0.6
Croatia 0.1 -0.3 -1.5
Czech Republic -0.4 -0.8 -0.1
Denmark -0.9 0.0 -0.8
Estonia 0.8 1.7 4.1
Finland -1.4 1.1 9.3
France 0.0 -0.4 -0.3
Germany 0.6 na na
Ireland -0.7 1.8 5.0
Latvia -2.3 -5.0 -9.6
Lithuania 0.0 0.2 2.3
Netherlands 0.5 na na
Poland 0.0 0.2 0.3
Portugal 0.6 0.8 1.7
Romania -0.9 0.5 2.1
Spain -0.1 -1.6 -5.1
Sweden 0.5 -1.7 -0.9
Annex to Economic Bulletin Q3 2015 – Page 6 of 12
External trade EU food and drink trade (€ billion)
2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2015 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q3 / 2014 Q3
% change
Exports 23.1 25 22.8 24.4 25 8
Imports 16.8 18 17.3 18.5 18.4 10
Balance 6.3 7 5.5 5.9 6.6 5
Source: Eurostat
Trend in EU food and drink export, 2010 - 2015 (€ billion)
Source: Eurostat
Export performance by sub-sector in Q3 2015
Source: Eurostat
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010
5.8%
0.2%
12.9%
-5.1%
19.7%
14.5%
0.4%
13.2%
30.4%
0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000
Spirits
Meat products
Wines
Dairy products
Chocolate & confectionary
Fruit & vegetable products
Oils and fats
Bakery & farinaceus products
Beer
€ million
2015 Q
3 / 2
014
Q3 %
change
Annex to Economic Bulletin Q3 2015 – Page 7 of 12
Trade by sub-sector in value and volume in Q3 2015
Sources: Eurostat Easy Comext, own calculations
Annex to Economic Bulletin Q3 2015 – Page 8 of 12
Prices of agricultural commodities FAO Food Price Index
Source: FAO Food Price Index
Main agricultural commodity prices
Agricultural commodity
EU WORLD
Q3 2015 average
Q3 2015/ Q2 2015
Q3 2015/ Q3 2014
Q3 2015 average
Q3 2015/ Q2 2015
Q3 2015/ Q3 2014
EUR/T % change % change EUR/T % change % change
CEREALS
Corn 164 6.2 3.2 150 -3.4 16.7
Soft Wheat 166 -11.4 0.4 177 1.3 8.5
DAIRY
SMP 1,749 -7.5 -22.7 1,651 -10.7 -24.9
WMP 2,251 -10.9 -13.0 1,996 -3.1 -13.3
SUGAR
White Sugar 324 -0.6 -0.6
USD/T % %
OILS AND OIL CROPS
Soybean oil 733 -5.5 -13.5
Soybean 375 -5.5 -14.5
Soybean meal 387 -2.5 -19.2
Rapeseed 417 -3.6 0.0
Palm oil 557 -18.4 -15.0
COFFEE & COCOA
Cocoa 3,210 -0.3 0.4
Coffee 2,592 -4.2 -29.1
Sources: World prices: FAO (cereals), CIAL (dairy), USDA (sugar); EU prices: DG AGRI; own calculations
Annex to Economic Bulletin Q3 2015 – Page 9 of 12
Retail trade Volume of retail trade (% change)
May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 y-o-y
Total retail trade 0.2 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.3 3.7
Food, drinks and tobacco 0.4 -0.3 0.3 0.3 0.0 2.3
Source: Eurostat
The index of volume of retail trade measures the monthly changes of the deflated turnover of retail trade. EU monthly retail trade volume by product group, 2010 - 2015 (2010=100)
Sources: Eurostat; Eurostat News Release 196/2015
93
95
97
99
101
103
105
20
10
M0
1
20
10
M0
3
20
10
M0
5
20
10
M0
7
20
10
M0
9
20
10
M1
1
20
11
M0
1
20
11
M0
3
20
11
M0
5
20
11
M0
7
20
11
M0
9
20
11
M1
1
20
12
M0
1
20
12
M0
3
20
12
M0
5
20
12
M0
7
20
12
M0
9
20
12
M1
1
20
13
M0
1
20
13
M0
3
20
13
M0
5
20
13
M0
7
20
13
M0
9
20
13
M1
1
20
14
M0
1
20
14
M0
3
20
14
M0
5
20
14
M0
7
20
14
M0
9
20
14
M1
1
20
15
M0
1
20
15
M0
3
20
15
M0
5
20
15
M0
7
20
15
M0
9
Retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles Retail sale of food, beverages and tobacco
Annex to Economic Bulletin Q3 2015 – Page 10 of 12
Price developments along the EU food chain Price developments (% change)
2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 y-o-y
Agricultural prices -4.5 -9.6 -0.2 -0.7 -3.0 -13.2
Food manufacturing prices -0.6 -1.5 -0.2 0.1 0.0 -1.7
Food consumer prices -0.9 0.1 0.6 0.3 -0.9 0.2
Inflation -0.3 0.1 -0.8 1.1 -0.4 0.0
Source: Eurostat
Sources: FoodDrinkEurope calculations on DG AGRI and Eurostat data
80
100
120
140
20
10
Q1
20
10
Q2
20
10
Q3
20
10
Q4
20
11
Q1
20
11
Q2
20
11
Q3
20
11
Q4
20
12
Q1
20
12
Q2
20
12
Q3
20
12
Q4
20
13
Q1
20
13
Q2
20
13
Q3
20
13
Q4
20
14
Q1
20
14
Q2
20
14
Q3
20
14
Q4
20
15
Q1
20
15
Q2
20
15
Q3
Agricultural prices Food manufacturing prices Food consumer prices Inflation
