MBS Reports R e t a i l T r a d e , S e p t e m b e r 2 0 1 9 1

November 22, 2019 Manitoba Bureau of Statistics Finance Research Division

Retail Trade

S e p t e m b e r 2 0 1 9

Highlights

Manitoba’s retail sales across all industries totalled $1,763.1 million for September 2019. The retail sales figure for September was 1.6% lower than the previous month. Manitoba’s increase from August to September was second lowest among all provinces. [Based on seasonally adjusted data, thus removing its seasonal patterns]

When compared to September of 2018, Manitoba sales fell 3.1%.

In comparison of 12 month periods ending in September, Manitoba sales rose 1.5%.

Retail sales growth in Manitoba is led by gasoline stores, offset by declines in motor vehicle and parts dealers.

Monthly Retail Trade Survey

The Monthly Retail Trade Survey collects sales, e-commerce sales, and the number of retail loca-tions by province, territory, and selected Census Metropolitan Areas (CMA) from a sample of retailers.

Retail sales estimates are a key monthly indicator of consumer purchasing patterns in Canada. Furthermore, retail sales are an important component of the Gross Domestic Product, which measures Canada's production, and are part of many economic models used by public and pri-vate agencies. The Bank of Can-ada relies partly on monthly retail sales estimates when mak-ing decisions that influence in-terest rates. Businesses use re-tail sales estimates to track their own performance against indus-try averages and to prepare investment strategies.

http://www23.statcan.gc.ca/imdb/p2SV.pl?Function=getSurvey&lang= en&db=imdb&adm=8&dis=2&SDDS=2406

Percent change, Aug 19 – Sep 19 (Seasonally Adjusted)

Source: Statistics Canada, Table: 20-10-0008-01

Manitoba had a 1.6% de-

crease in retail sales from

August to September. Mani-

toba’s percent change was

tied with Alberta in having

the second lowest percent

change among all provinces.

Canada’s total percent

change was down 0.1%.

Quebec had the largest in-

crease with a 0.7% improve-

ment compared to the previ-

ous month, while New Bruns-

wick was lowest at -3.7%.

Retail Trade Statistics: The monthly retail trade statistics are collected and disseminated by Statistics Canada. For the

purpose of this bulletin, the retail trade statistics are unadjusted for inflation.

From September 2018 to

September 2019, Manito-

ba’s 3.1% decrease in retail

sales was third lowest

among provinces, above

Canada’s increase of 0.8%

over the same period. Nova

Scotia saw the highest in-

crease at 2.0% over Sep-

tember last year, while Al-

berta and New Brunswick

placed last among all prov-

inces with a 1.4% decrease

in September sales.

Source: Statistics Canada, Table: 20-10-0008-01

Percent change, Sep 2018 – Sep 2019 (Unadjusted)

*See appendix tables for a compre-

hensive list of retail trade statistics

-0.3

-3.1

-5.0

-4.0

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

NS QC ON PE NL CA BC SK MB AB NB

year-over-year change (%)

-0.1

-1.6

-4.0

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

QC NS ON NL CAN SK BC PEI AB MB NB

month-over-month change (%)

MBS Reports R e t a i l T r a d e , S e p t e m b e r 2 0 1 9 2

November 22, 2019 Manitoba Bureau of Statistics Finance Research Division

Positive contributors:

Gasoline stations in Manitoba led the

country with an increase in sales of 8.6%

between periods. Canada’s gasoline sales

fell 3.9% over the same period. Gasoline

stations contributed 1.1% towards Manito-

ba’s overall increase.

Health and personal care stores in Manito-

ba experienced a 11.0% rise in sales be-

tween periods. The increase for the indus-

try across the nation was 3.1%. Health and

personal cares stores contributed 0.6% to-

wards Manitoba’s overall increase.

Negative contributors:

Motor vehicle and parts dealers was one of

three industries to experience a decline in

sales, down -5.0% between periods. The total increase for the industry across Canada was +2.0%. Motor vehicles had a

negative impact of 1.4% toward Manitoba’s overall increase.

Electronics and appliance stores sales fell -21.4% between periods. At the national level, industry sales fell -7.9%. Elec-

tronics and appliance stores had a negative impact of 0.5% on Manitoba’s overall increase.

Industry impact on Manitoba’s 12 month rolling sum increase

A 12 month rolling sum is calculated by summing up the sales figures for a 12 month period, up to and including the cur-

rent month. The 12 month sales figure is then compared with the same 12 month period from the previous year to de-

termine percent change. When using a 12 month rolling sum, sales data is seasonally unadjusted. For example, the sales

from September 2015 – September 2016 were $100,000. The sales from September 2016 – September 2017 were

$125,000, resulting in a 25% increase in 12 month rolling sum sales.

Manitoba placed fourth among all provinces with a 1.5%

increase in sales based on a 12 month rolling sum. This

was down from the 12 month rolling sum increase of 2.0%

recorded in August. Manitoba was on par with Canada’s

nationwide increase of 1.5%.

Manitoba’s ranking can be attributed to high sales from

gasoline stations (+8.6%) offset by low sales in the motor

vehicle and parts dealers industry (-5.0%).

Ontario continues to lead the county with a 2.9% increase

in sales, while Newfoundland and Labrador continues to

trail all provinces with a 2.2% decrease in sales.

Contact: David Desrochers david.desrochers@gov.mb.ca

MBS intranet website: http://intranet.mbgov.ca/finance/mbs/Pages/default.aspx

MBS public website: http://www.gov.mb.ca/mbs/

*See appendix tables for a comprehensive list of retail trade statistics

Retail sales growth, 12 month rolling sum [Oct 2017—Sep 2018] - [Oct 2018—Sep 2019]

Source: Statistics Canada, Table: 20-10-0008-01

1.5 1.5

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

ON PEI QC CAN MB NB NS BC AB SK NL

change, 12 month roll ing sum (%)

Contributions by industry, Manitoba Retail sales (up 1.5%) [Oct 2017– Sep 2018] - [Oct 2018 – Sep 2019]

Source: Statistics Canada, Table: 20-10-0008-01

-1.4-0.5

-0.10.00.1

0.40.40.40.4

0.61.1

-2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5

Motor vehiclesElectronics & appliances

FurnitureSports, hobby & music stores

Clothing storesMisc. retail stores

Food & beverage storesGeneral merchandise stores

Building MaterialsHealth & personal care stores

Gasoline stations

change, 12 month rolling sum (%)

MBS Reports R e t a i l T r a d e , S e p t e m b e r 2 0 1 9 3

November 22, 2019 Manitoba Bureau of Statistics Finance Research Division

Table 1A: Retail sales, Canada and provinces - Unadjusted September 2019

Sep Aug Sep Aug to Sep 2018 to

2018 2019r 2019p Sep 2019 Sep 2019

Canada 51,134 54,888 50,989 -7.1 -0.3

Newfoundland and Labrador 753 844 756 -10.4 0.4

Prince Edward Is land 205 251 206 -18.1 0.5

Nova Scotia 1,330 1,497 1,356 -9.5 2.0

New Brunswick 1,132 1,244 1,084 -12.9 -4.2

Quebec 10,649 11,535 10,806 -6.3 1.5

Ontario 19,369 20,656 19,519 -5.5 0.8

Manitoba 1,799 1,940 1,742 -10.2 -3.1

Saskatchewan 1,627 1,721 1,604 -6.8 -1.4

Alberta 6,914 7,258 6,622 -8.8 -4.2

Bri ti sh Columbia 7,177 7,749 7,119 -8.1 -0.8

Manitoba Rank (out of 10 provinces) 7 8

Table 1B: Retail sales, Canada and provinces - Seasonally adjusted September 2019

Sep Aug Sep Aug to Sep 2018 to

2018 2019r 2019p Sep 2019 Sep 2019

Canada 51,067 51,633 51,579 -0.1 1.0

Newfoundland and Labrador 748 755 755 -0.1 0.9

Prince Edward Is land 205 212 209 -1.5 2.2

Nova Scotia 1,325 1,366 1,374 0.6 3.8

New Brunswick 1,123 1,125 1,084 -3.7 -3.5

Quebec 10,811 11,007 11,080 0.7 2.5

Ontario 19,253 19,578 19,645 0.3 2.0

Manitoba 1,781 1,792 1,763 -1.6 -1.0

Saskatchewan 1,629 1,624 1,623 -0.1 -0.4

Alberta 6,853 6,772 6,666 -1.6 -2.7

Bri ti sh Columbia 7,161 7,222 7,205 -0.2 0.6

Manitoba Rank (out of 10 provinces) 9 8

r revised

Release date: November 22, 2019

p prelimilary

Note: Figures may not add up to totals as a result of rounding, as well as excludes the three territories

Source: Prepared by the Manitoba Bureau of Statistics, adapted from Statistics Canada, table 20-10-0008-01 (formerly CANSIM 080-0020)

millions of dollars % change

millions of dollars % change

MBS Reports R e t a i l T r a d e , S e p t e m b e r 2 0 1 9 4

November 22, 2019 Manitoba Bureau of Statistics Finance Research Division

Table 2: Retail sales by industry, Manitoba - Unadjusted September 2019

Sep Aug Sep Aug to Sep 2018 to

2018 2019r 2019p Sep 2019 Sep 2019

Retail trade 1,799 1,940 1,742 -10.2 -3.1

Motor vehicle and parts dealers 502 510 436 -14.4 -13.2

Automobi le dealers 443 435 369 -15.3 -16.7

New car dealers 419 412 344 -16.5 -17.8

Used car dealers 24 23 24 6.6 3.2

Other motor vehicle dealers 22 28 23 -16.0 3.0

Automotive parts , accessories and ti re s tores 37 47 44 -5.1 19.1

Furniture and home furnishings s tores 50 52 50 -3.9 -0.9

Furni ture s tores 35 38 38 -1.7 7.8

Home furnishings s tores 15 14 12 -10.3 -20.8

Electronics and appl iance s tores 42 30 27 -11.1 -35.9

Bui lding materia l & garden equipment & suppl ies 131 169 156 -7.8 19.1

Food and beverage s tores 368 395 353 -10.7 -4.2

Grocery s tores 291 304 282 -7.2 -3.1

Supermarkets and other grocery (excl . convenience) s tores 268 281 259 -7.9 -3.4

Convenience s tores 23 23 23 0.8 0.9

Specia l ty food s tores 15 12 10 -13.5 -34.5

Beer, wine and l iquor s tores 62 80 61 -23.6 -1.9

Health and personal care s tores 90 113 109 -3.6 22.0

Gasol ine s tations 231 264 234 -11.2 1.3

Clothing and clothing accessories s tores 78 82 72 -12.2 -7.6

Clothing s tores 61 62 55 -10.1 -9.4

Shoe s tores 11 13 10 -23.1 -6.2

Jewel lery, luggage and leather goods s tores 6 7 6 -10.1 9.3

Sporting goods , hobby, book and mus ic s tores 36 36 34 -3.3 -3.3

Genera l merchandise s tores 225 238 223 -6.1 -0.7

Miscel laneous s tore reta i lers 45 52 48 -8.5 6.2

Released date: November 22, 2019

p prelimilary

x suppressed to meet the confidentiality requirements of the Statistics Act

r revised

Source: Prepared by the Manitoba Bureau of Statistics, adapted from Statistics Canada, table 20-10-0008-01 (formerly CANSIM 080-0020)

Note: Figures may not add up to totals as a result of rounding

. . not available for a specific reference period

millions of dollars % change

MBS Reports R e t a i l T r a d e , S e p t e m b e r 2 0 1 9 5

November 22, 2019 Manitoba Bureau of Statistics Finance Research Division

Table 3: Retail sales by industry, Manitoba - Unadjusted

Accumulative totals: Year-to-date and 12 month rolling sum

Jan 18 Jan 19 Oct 17 Oct 18

to to to to Contributing

Sep 18 Sep 19 Sep 18 Sep 19 Growth (3)

% change % change %

Retail trade 15,575 15,813 1.5 20,882 21,190 1.5 1.5

Motor vehicle and parts dealers 4,408 4,165 -5.5 5,729 5,445 -5.0 -1.4

Automobi le dealers 3,818 3,508 -8.1 4,950 4,605 -7.0 -1.7

New car dealers 3,579 3,285 -8.2 4,639 4,316 -7.0 -1.5

Used car dealers 239 222 -7.1 311 288 -7.1 -0.1

Other motor vehicle dealers 255 261 2.4 313 319 2.2 0.0

Automotive parts , accessories and ti re s tores 335 397 18.3 467 521 11.6 0.3

Furniture and home furnishings s tores 433 425 -2.0 592 580 -1.9 -0.1

Furni ture s tores 294 305 3.8 396 411 3.8 0.1

Home furnishings s tores 140 120 -14.4 195 169 -13.5 -0.1

Electronics and appl iance s tores 320 224 -30.1 480 377 -21.4 -0.5

Bui lding materia l & garden equipment & suppl ies 1,160 1,248 7.6 1,488 1,577 6.0 0.4

Food and beverage s tores 3,257 3,329 2.2 4,409 4,492 1.9 0.4

Grocery s tores 2,531 2,612 3.2 3,406 3,490 2.5 0.4

Specia l ty food s tores 119 104 -12.7 176 159 -9.7 -0.1

Beer, wine and l iquor s tores 606 613 1.1 827 843 2.0 0.1

Health and personal care s tores 855 983 15.0 1,168 1,297 11.0 0.6

Gasol ine s tations 1,950 2,122 8.8 2,547 2,766 8.6 1.1

Clothing and clothing accessories s tores 598 596 -0.2 855 867 1.4 0.1

Clothing s tores 460 452 -1.6 652 658 1.0 0.0

Shoe s tores 90 88 -2.7 129 125 -3.2 0.0

Jewel lery, luggage and leather goods s tores 48 56 17.0 74 84 13.5 0.0

Sporting goods , hobby, book and mus ic s tores 271 277 2.2 411 421 2.4 0.0

Genera l merchandise s tores 1,971 2,049 4.0 2,746 2,833 3.2 0.4

Miscel laneous s tore reta i lers 352 394 12.0 458 535 16.9 0.4

Released date: November 22, 2019

September 2019

. . not available for a specific reference period

(2) Compares the sum of the 12 months ending this month with the sum of the 12 months ending one year earlier.

(1) Compares the sum of the months beginning in January to the latest month available with the same period one year earlier.

Source: Prepared by the Manitoba Bureau of Statistics, adapted from Statistics Canada, table 20-10-0008-01 (formerly CANSIM 080-0020)

Note: Figures may not add up to totals as a result of rounding

(3) Contributing growth rates indicate how much a components’growth contributed to the overall growth for an indicator. In the context of retail

12 month rolling sum (2)

contributing growth rates equals the retail trade growth rate.

trade, contributing growth rates indicate how much the components of retail trade contributed to the overall growth of retail. The sum of the

x suppressed to meet the confidentiality requirements of the Statistics Act

r revised

Year-to-date (1)

millions of dollars

p prelimilary

millions of dollars