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Extending NOAA’s prediction and assessment mission to coastal and marine ecosystems. Ecological Forecasting. Dr. Donald Scavia National Ocean Service National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration January 6, 2003. NOAA Context for Ecological Forecasting Outline Research Needs. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Ecological Forecasting
Extending NOAA’s prediction and
assessment mission to coastal and marine
ecosystems.
Dr. Donald ScaviaNational Ocean Service
National Oceanic and Atmospheric AdministrationJanuary 6, 2003
Presentation Outline
NOAA Context for Ecological Forecasting
Outline Research Needs
Why Forecasts?
The Power of Prediction …
The Limits of Prediction …
“Knowing” impacts improves decisions.
Uncertainties set the science agenda.
What is an Ecological Forecast?
“In anything at all, perfection is finally attained not when there is on longer anything to add, but when there is no longer anything to take away.”
Antoine de Saint-Exupery, 1940
“In terms of conventional physics, the grouse represents only a millionth of either the mass or energy of an acre. Yet, subtract the grouse and the whole thing is dead.”
Aldo Leopold, 1948
The “Bio-Physical” Challenge
Drivers of Ecosystem Change
From CENR
Relevant Time and Space scales. T
ime
Sca
le o
f E
cosy
stem
Res
pon
se
From CENR
Focus on Two Classes
Weather Forecast Analogies
Short-term, local scales
Integrated Assessment Contexts
Longer-term, regional scales
Weather Forecast Analogs
Tim
e S
cale
of
Ecosyste
m R
esp
on
se
Weather Forecast Analogs
Chesapeake Bay Sea Nettle Nowcasts
Florida and Gulf of Maine HAB Forecasts
Integrated AssessmentsA Formal bridge to policy
1. Document Status and Trends
2. Describe Causes and Consequences of Trends
3. Predict Future Outcomes Under Action Options
4. Provide guidance for Potential Actions
A key weak point in most Integrated Assessments is Step #3:
Ecological Forecasting
Input for Assessments Tim
e S
cale
of
Ecosyste
m R
esp
on
se Step 3 in
Integrated Assessments
Water Allocation impacts on oysters.
MS Basin Land Use impacts on Gulf hypoxia.
Controls of seagrass recovery.
Sea-level rise impacts on coastal ecosystems.
Research Needs
Reduce uncertainty in forecasts of:• marine ecosystem variability• estuarine susceptibility• coastal climate impacts
Key gaps in process understanding
Science in the Integrated Assessment Framework
Reduce Uncertainty in Marine Ecosystem Forecasts
Long-Term Ecological Monitoring• Advanced monitoring technologies
Data Assimilative Models• Emphasis on low frequency change• Coupled bio/physical models• Dynamics-based ecosystem indices
Process Research on Recruitment Variability• Bio-physical controls• Spatial interactions (aka marine reserves)
Ecosystem-based Management Strategies• Including social and economic constraints
Reduce Uncertainty in Forecasts of Estuarine Susceptibility
Long-Term Ecological Monitoring• Advanced monitoring technologies
Data Assimilative Estuary Models• Response to loads (esp. nutrients)• Physical constraints (flushing, etc)• Move away from “uniqueness” paradigm
Focus on Multiple Stresses• Changes in nutrient loads• Climate changes (T, H2O load)
Better models of watershed processes• Agricultural systems• Groundwater, wetlands, riparian zones
Reduce Uncertainty in Forecasts of Coastal Climate Impacts
Sea Level Rise/Land Subsidence/Storms• Changes in H2O/sediment delivery • Rates of wetland inundation • Impacts of fragmentation and loss
Sea Surface Temperature; Dissolved CO2 • Coral distribution and survival
Changing Precipitation Patterns• Altered nutrient loads, salinity, stability
Ocean circulation & Temperature patterns• Species distribution (fisheries, invasives)• Recruitment processes
Key Process Lacunae
Modeling linked C & N cycles Coastal Eutrophication
denitrification; reduce production
Climate ChangeNOx release; C-sequestration
What initiates Harmful Algal Blooms?
What controls marine species invasions?
Integrated Assessments Context
Document Status and Trends • Ecosystem Observing Systems
Describe Causes and Consequences of Trends• Integrated Natural and Social Sciences
Predict Future Outcomes Under Action Options• Ecological Forecasting
“Big scary” and simple modelsAssimilative; uncertainty quantified
Provide guidance for Potential Actions• With social and economic constraints
Ecological Forecasting
Extending NOAA’s prediction and
assessment mission to coastal and marine
ecosystems.
Dr. Donald ScaviaNational Ocean Service
National Oceanic and Atmospheric AdministrationJanuary 6, 2003
