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Earth Science Vision 2010 – 2025Earth Science Vision 2010 – 2025Ecosystems, Biosphere, and Human-Biosphere InteractionsEcosystems, Biosphere, and Human-Biosphere Interactions

Ecological ForecastingEcological Forecasting

“… “… to observe and understand Earth’s to observe and understand Earth’s biospherebiosphere, , to enable the prediction of to enable the prediction of ecological changesecological changes that that

affect the quality of life on Earth.”affect the quality of life on Earth.”

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NASA’s Earth Science VisionNASA’s Earth Science Vision

• NASA’s Earth Science Vision for 2025 calls for significant NASA’s Earth Science Vision for 2025 calls for significant advances in our ecological forecasting capabilities *advances in our ecological forecasting capabilities *

• What is an ecological forecast?What is an ecological forecast?

An ecological forecast predicts the impacts of biological, An ecological forecast predicts the impacts of biological, chemical, and physical changes on ecosystems, ecosystem chemical, and physical changes on ecosystems, ecosystem components, and people ...components, and people ...

** See IGARSS ’01 Paper by Smith, Wickland, Crawford, Cihlar, and Schnase entitled See IGARSS ’01 Paper by Smith, Wickland, Crawford, Cihlar, and Schnase entitled Advancing our Advancing our Biological and Ecological Predictive Capabilities.Biological and Ecological Predictive Capabilities.

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Ecosystem Goods and ServicesEcosystem Goods and Services

• Ecosystems are the basis of a strong economyEcosystems are the basis of a strong economy• GoodsGoods - Annually, US ecosystems provide: - Annually, US ecosystems provide:

– $3.9 Billion in commercial fishing revenues$3.9 Billion in commercial fishing revenues– $206 Billion from agriculture$206 Billion from agriculture– 20 Billion cubic feet of timber20 Billion cubic feet of timber– The base of strong recreation and tourist industryThe base of strong recreation and tourist industry

• ServicesServices - Ecosystems also provide: - Ecosystems also provide:– Clean air and water for every citizenClean air and water for every citizen– Detoxification and decomposition of toxinsDetoxification and decomposition of toxins– Cycling and movement of carbon and nutrientsCycling and movement of carbon and nutrients– Drought and flood mitigationDrought and flood mitigation

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Ecosystem Goods and ServicesEcosystem Goods and Services

• To sustain their delivery, we have to:To sustain their delivery, we have to:

Understand how they are produced naturally …Understand how they are produced naturally …– Biogeochemical cyclesBiogeochemical cycles

– Trophic dynamicsTrophic dynamics

– Species interactionsSpecies interactions

– Abiotic driversAbiotic drivers

– Abiotic-biotic interactionsAbiotic-biotic interactions

… … and how they are affected by and how they are affected by changechange

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Principal Scales of ChangePrincipal Scales of Change

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Interacting Drivers of ChangeInteracting Drivers of Change