Earth Observations:The View from Scripps

Charles F. KennelDirector

Scripps Institution of Oceanography

University of California, San Diego

January 2005

Humans have transformed the earth

in the last 50 years

City Lights from Space

Water, ozone, global air pollution, climate change, ecosystems

Earth System Science

• In addition to dealing with eons past, earth science has a new focus on the geological here and now- predict the next hundred years.

• We are creating an interdisciplinary panorama of the earth as it is today and as it will be tomorrow.

• We are taking into account the human activities that influence earth’s systems

• Earth system science can now make useful forecasts in fields beyond weather

• The entire enterprise requires an earth observing system of global scale

• Human Architecture

• Multi-Sensor Networks

• Cyber-Infrastructure

• Decision-Support Systems

Global Earth Observing System

Human Architecture:International Framework

• Global Change Research Act of 1990– Calls for “global measurements, establishing worldwide

observations necessary to understand the physical, chemical, and biological processes responsible for changes in the Earth system on all relevant spatial and time scales,” as well as “documentation of global change, including the development of mechanisms for recording changes that will actually occur in the Earth system over the coming decades.”

• International Global Observing Strategy (OSTP, July 17, 1995)– “The Global Observing System would be an internationally

coordinated system of mutually funded experimental and operational space-based and in situ data acquisition, archive, and distribution systems and programs for earth observations and environmental monitoring.”

Human Architecture - 2G-8 Summit, Evian France, June 2, 2003

“ We will focus our efforts on three areas that present great opportunities for progress: … close co-ordination of our respective global observation strategies for the next ten years; identify new observations to minimize data gaps; ...”

Declaration of the Earth Observation Summit “We, the participants in this Earth Observation Summit held in Washington, DC, on July 31, 2003 … Affirm the need for timely, quality, long-term, global information as a basis for sound decision making.”

Ministers at the Earth Observation Summit III in Brussels, February 2005, endodrsed the 10-Year Implementation Plan.

55 GEO members as of March 2005

AlgeriaArgentinaAustraliaBelgiumBelizeBrazilCameroonCanadaChileChinaCroatiaCyprusDenmarkEgyptEuropean CommissionFinlandFrance

NetherlandsNew ZealandNigerNigeriaNorwayPortugalRepublic of the CongoRepublic of KoreaRussian FederationSlovak FederationSouth AfricaSpain Sudan SwedenSwitzerlandThailandTunisiaUkraineUnited KingdomUnited StatesUzbekistan

GermanyGreeceGuinea-BissauHondurasIndiaIndonesiaIranIrelandIsraelItalyJapanKazakhstanLuxembourgMalaysiaMaliMexicoMoroccoNepal

40 NGO Participants as of March 2005African Association of Remote Sensing

of the EnvironmentAsia-Pacific Network for Global Change

ResearchAssociation for the Development of

Environmental Information (ADIE)Central American Commission for the

Environment and Development (SICA/CCAD)

Committee on Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS)

EuroGeoSurveysEuropean Centre for Medium-Range

Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)European Environmental Agency (EEA)European Space Agency (ESA)European Organization for the

Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT)

European Sea Level ServiceFederation of Digital Broad-Band

Seismograph Networks (FDSN)Food and Agriculture Organization of

the United Nations (FAO)Global Climate Observing System

(GCOS)

International Steering Committee for Global Mapping ﾊ (ISCGM)

International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (ISDR)

Open Geospatial ConsortiumPartnership for Observation of the Global

Ocean (POGO)The Network of European Meteorological

Services/Composite Observing System (EUMETNET/EUCOS)

United Nations Convention on Biodiversity (UNCBD)

United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO)

United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)

United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)

United Nations Institute for Training and Research

United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs (UNOOSA)

World Climate Research Programme (WCRP)

World Meteorological Organization (WMO)

Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS)

Global Terrestrial Observing System (GTOS)

Institute of Electrical and Electronic Engineers (IEEE)

Integrated Global Observing Strategy Partnership (IGOS-P)

Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC)

International Association of Geodesy (IAG)

International Association of Geodesy (IAG)

International Council for Science (ICSU)International Council on Systems

EngineeringInternational Geosphere-Biosphere

Program (IGBP)International Group of Funding Agencies

for Global Change Research (IGFA)International Institute for Space Law

(IISL) International Society for Photogrammetry

and Remote Sensing

Human Architecture - Summary

• The human architecture is developing, starting with government organizations representing producers of observing systems

• International framework for coordination is being developed

• Main participants are national governments supporting scientific programs

• Limited decision-support activities to date

• Participation of users at all levels will eventually be required

Multi-Sensor NetworksToday

• Remotely sensed and in situ• Spacecraft, aircraft, ships,

moorings, floats,• Radars, lidars, physical,

chemical and biological sensors…

• Oceans, atmosphere, land, ice• Global to regional to local

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NSF

Ocean Observatory

Networks

NOAA/DOD/NASANational Polar Orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS)

EUMETSAT/NOAAMetop

Multi-Sensor NetworksTomorrow

• Today’s sensors and platforms require substantial infrastructure for power and communications

• Eventually, there will be hundreds of millions of “nano-sensors on cell-phones”

Cyber-Infrastructure

Information management and architecture

Communications

Computing Modeling

Visualization

The Internet:An Evolutionary Tale

• Phase 1: Early Internet (1970s) – Big servers and small number of clients– Government funded and controlled

• Phase 2: (late 1980s)– Distributed international network of largely scientific

users

• Phase 3: Internet today– Hundreds of millions of users – Peer-to-peer– No centralized control– Use of a few powerful standards

Similar path for GEO?

• Phase 1: government operated networks between major installations

• Phase 2: distributed high-performance research network being established now

• Phase 3: work on miniaturization of sensors and distributed (Grid) computing; evolving to massive numbers of individual nodes

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Beyond Indicators to Decision-Support Tools

If we connect GEO to effective decision support systems, then it will become a principal tool for achieving sustainability on a global scale.

Photo credit: Global Spatial Data Infrastructure Project

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Photo credit: New York Times

Global Observations are needed for Global and Local Decisions

GEO Societal Benefit Areas• Disasters• Health• Energy• Climate• Water• Weather• Ecosystems• Agriculture/Desertification• Biodiversity

Local Issues (examples)• Health and safety from severe

natural events• Risk management• Infrastructure planning• Facility design, landscaping,

maintenance• Travel and recreation• Emergency preparedness

Climate variations affect energy supply and demand and therefore

decisionsEl Nino North Pacific Oscillation (NPO)

Decision support examples

Illustration: Free air gravity anomaly map of the Gulf of Mexico produced using ERS data (Courtesy: Satellite Observing Systems)

Offshore Hydrocarbon Exploration:Where to invest

Fisheries Productivity:How to manage coastal resources

Warming Waters Identified as Cause of Marine Life Depletions off California

Evolving Role of the Science Community

Transferring designs, technologies, models, and tested systems to the public and private sectors

Partnering in the governance and management of long-term observing and decision support systems

Infusing new objectives and technologies into on-going systems

Linking new capabilities to new users

Research community is becoming more multi-disciplinary and service-oriented

Originating science, creating models, & developing observing technologies

Designing observing strategies and systems

Human Architecture Needs to Evolve

• For the full array of environmental information– Phase 1: Government agencies in charge

• E.g., weather satellites, global weather models

– Phase 2: Large sophisticated scientific and technology users engaged

• Regional forecast centers tied to universities looking at climate as well as weather

– Phase 3: Broad user base with information products tailored to their needs and presented in their language

• Wide network of commercial value-added industries providing local forecasts for specific clients (frost warnings for citrus growers; snow forecasts for ski resorts; beach conditions, etc.)

New Management Concepts

• System of systems

• Multi-sector consortia

• Standards

• Interoperability

• Open communication

• Evolving, adaptive

• Education and outreach

Center for Earth Observations and Applications

UCSD’s Contribution to GEOSS

Vision: to establish international leadership in education, research, technology development, observation, and information management for Earth observations.– Headed by SIO/John Orcutt

UCSD may be unique in its ability to work end-to-end on all aspects of global observing.

CEOA Mission

• To develop, deploy, operate, and use observing platforms and sensors for the land, oceans, and atmosphere

• To collect and integrate observational data from a global network of multidisciplinary sources

• To develop technologies and decision-support tools that promote a balance between the natural environment and human activities

• To participate in GEOSS

CEOA Approach: Internal “Venture Capital” Group

Promote major interdisciplinary scientific and technical programs that cross Division, Department, and School boundaries

Substantially increase funding available for interdisciplinary programs

Assist teams in writing major proposals & providing matching funds. If necessary, assist when needed in program operation. Assist in hiring where needed.

Provide a coherent and comprehensive interface to the external community on behalf of the extensive UCSD capabilities and programs.

The Grand ConvergenceThe Grand Convergence

The convergence of earth science and The convergence of earth science and information technology will lead to information technology will lead to

continuous awareness of earth’s systems continuous awareness of earth’s systems and their interactions with human and their interactions with human

activities.activities.We will use continuous awareness to We will use continuous awareness to

manage our resources and environment, manage our resources and environment, and our response to disastersand our response to disasters

Continuous awareness will promote Continuous awareness will promote integrated responses to emerging global integrated responses to emerging global

environmental challenges environmental challenges

Conclusion

As civilization becomes increasingly global and technologically sophisticated, our need for a global observing capability will grow.

We are beginning an endeavor that will evolve over the entire 21st century and endure as long as we have an advanced civilization.