Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
ENERGÍA EN EL MUNDO
LA ERA DE LA ESCASEZ
Marcelo Martínez Mosquera
Foro de la Ingeniería – 23 de Julio de 2008
1. ENERGY IN THE WORLD
WORLD PRIMARY ENERGY DEMAND BY SECTOR
Source: BP Statistical Review of World 2007
Electricity 34%
Residential 25%
Transport 20%
Industry 21%
WORLD PRIMARY ENERGY CONSUMPTION 2007
Source: BP Statistical Review of World 2008
Nuclear 6%
Coal 28%
Oil 35%
Renewables 7%
Natural Gas 24%
ENERGY GROWTH
annual growth
Oil 2.0 %
Natural Gas 3.1 %
Coal 5.7 %
Nuclear 0.4 %
Hydro 3.1 %
TOTAL 3.3%
Last 5 years:
2. OIL
WORLD OIL PRICES AND PRODUCTION
Source: Oil Market Report IEA - Platts
90s 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 May-08
[USD/bbl]
WTI 20.7 25.9 26.2 31.1 41.5 56.6 66.0 72.2 125.4
[MMbbl/d] % 2007
OPEC 31.3 29.9 31.9 34.4 36.0 36.3 35.9 43.2%
FSU 8.6 9.4 10.3 11.2 11.6 12.2 12.8 15.4%
Rest of the World 35.2 35.6 35.6 35.5 34.9 34.6 34.5 41.4%
TOTAL 75.1 74.9 77.8 81.1 82.5 83.1 83.2 100%
UPSTREAM INVESTMENTS
2004 2006
[B USD]
Rest of the World 100.0 162.0
China 12.6 21.5
ATHABASCA OIL SANDS & ORINOCO FAJA
THE OIL FACTORY
Process:
• Mining: deforestation, elimination of non-bitumen soil, mining, transport to the mill (3 tonnes of mineral are needed for every barrel produced) crushing and filtering, “primary refining” to obtain bitumen, transport of the by-products to the place of origin, transport of the bitumen mixed with a solvent to an ad hoc refinery which transforms the bitumen into synthetic oil, then sold to normal refineries around the world.
• Steam Injection: drilling a dual well with two horizontal conduits, sourcing water and then natural gas to produce steam and inject it into the well through one of the horizontal conduits, producing hot bitumen through the other conduit and repeating the double refinery process in the same way as in the Mining process.
Investment:
• 15 USD billion to produce 100 000 bbl/d
WORLD PEAK OIL
Source: The Future of Oil, Maurice Dusseault
BIO-FUELS
• Ex-Refinery Cost
[USD/liter] Bio-Fuel B-F equivalent Oil Oil
Bio-diesel – soybean oil 1.46 1.62 0.94
Bio-ethanol – corn 0.75 1.13 0.94
Bio-ethanol – sugar 0.46 0.68 0.94
• ALL seed oil production => 7% of diesel oil demand
• ALL sugar and corn production => 20% of gasoline demand
May-08
WORLD OIL DEMAND
Source: Oil Market Report IEA - Platts
90s 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
[USD/bbl]
WTI 20.7 25.9 26.2 31.1 41.5 56.6 66.0 72.2
[MMbbl/d]
WORLD DEMAND 75.1 74.9 77.8 81.1 82.5 83.1 83.2
“The problem with oil is that demand is too young and supply is too old”. Matthew Simmons
RETAIL PRICES
Source: EIA-DOE, ANP, Argentine Energy Secretariat and own research – May-08
GASOLINE DIESEL OIL
[USD/liter]
US 0.91 1.03
Germany 2.15 1.99
China 0.80 --
India 1.20 0.90
Brazil 1.46 1.10
Argentina 0.81 0.60
WORLD PRIMARY ENERGY CONSUMPTION 2007
Source: BP Statistical Review of World 2008
Nuclear 6%
Coal 28%
Oil 35%
Renewables 7%
Natural Gas 24%
ELECTRICITY
WTI= 125 U$S/bbl
Source: Own research
INVESTMENT FUEL COST O&M TOTAL
[USD/kW] [USD/MWh] [USD/unit] [USD/MWh] [USD/MWh] [USD/MWh]
Natural Gas -CC 800 13.1 12 USD/MMbtu 85.2 4 102
Coal -ST 2,000 38.5 140 USD/ tn 51.1 6 96
Fuel Oil – ST 1,500 27.1 632 USD/tn 141.9 7 176
Diesel Oil – CC 800 13.1 1 205 USD/tn 191.0 5 209
Nuclear 3,500 70.8 140 USD/kg 4.9 8 84
Hydro 3,000 105.1 - - 7 112
Wind 2,000 95.9 - - 6 102
Solar 6,000 402.3 - - 14 416
ELECTRICITY
Source: Own research
Paper MMM 2007 1Q-2008[USD/MWh] [USD/MWh]
Natural Gas -CC 72 102
Coal -ST 69 96
Fuel Oil – ST 104 176
Diesel Oil – CC 119 209
Nuclear 66 84
Hydro 94 112
Wind 88 102
Solar 416 416
THRESHOLD 80 100
Investment + Fuel Cost + O&M
3. NATURAL GAS
NATURAL GAS PRICES
Source: BP Statistical Review of World 2008 given in Natural Gas Week - Bloomberg
90s 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 May-08
[USD/MMbtu]
HENRY HUB 2.2 4.1 3.3 5.6 5.9 8.8 6.8 7.0 11.3
NATURAL GAS RESERVES AND PRODUCTION
Source: BP Statistical Review of World 2008
PRODUCTION RESERVES R/P[TCF] [TCF] [years]
Russia 21.5 1,577 74
US 19.3 211 11
Iran 4.0 982 246
Qatar 2.1 904 428
Others 56.9 2,589 45
TOTAL 103.8 6,263 60
NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION
Source: BP Statistical Review of World 2007 - 2008
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
[TCF]
Russia 19.2 19.6 20.4 20.8 21.1 21.6 21.5
US 19.6 18.9 19.1 18.5 18.1 18.5 19.3
Iran 2.3 2.6 2.9 3.2 3.6 3.8 4.0
Qatar 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.1
Others 45.6 47.0 48.8 51.3 53.8 55.7 57.0
TOTAL 87.7 89.1 92.3 95.2 98.2 101.4 103.8
Annual average growth 2002-2007 3%
NATURAL GAS PROFILE
Source: BP Statistical Review of World 2008
2007
[TCF]
Own consumption (via gas pipeline) 75.8 73%
Exports via gas pipeline 19.4 19%
Exports via LNG 8.0 8%
TOTAL 103.2 100%
NATURAL GAS RESERVES
North America
South & Central America
Europe & Eurasia
Middle East
Asia Pacific
Africa
273 TCF
515 TCF
511 TCF
281 TCF 2,098 TCF
2,585 TCF
Source: BP Statistical Review of World 2008
LNG INVESTMENTS
MM USD USD/MMbtu
Liquefaction 2,200 2.2
Transport* (ships) 600 – 1,000 0.8 - 1.1
Regasification 800 0.7
TOTAL 3,600 – 4,000 3.7 – 4.0
•Depending on distance
Sep-07
4. COAL
COAL RESERVES AND PRODUCTION
Source: BP Statistical Review of World 2008
PRODUCTION RESERVES R/P[MMtn] [MMtn] [years]
China 2,537 114,500 45
US 1,039 242,721 234
India 478 56,498 118
Australia 394 76,600 194
Russia 314 157,010 500
South Africa 269 48,000 178
Others 1,365 152,159 112
TOTAL 6,396 847,488 133
“Coal is the best of fuels, coal is the worst of fuels” Kenneth Deffeyes
COAL vs. NATURAL GAS GENERATION COSTS
NATURAL GAS COAL COALCC ST IGCC
Investment [USD/kW] 800 2,000 3,000
Fuel Cost 12 USD/MMbtu 140 USD/tn 140 USD/tn
Generation Cost [USD/MWh] 102 96 112
Emissions [CO2 tn/MWh] 0.432 0.894 0.350
Source: Own Research – EIA-DOE
EMISSIONS
Source: EIA-DOE
CO2 tn/MWh
SOURCE
Coal 0.894
Oil 0.659
Natural Gas 0.432
Nuclear -
Wind -
Hydro -
5. NUCLEAR
URANIUM RESOURCES AND PRODUCTION
Source: World Nuclear Association
PRODUCTION RESOURCES
[TU/year][TU]
Canada 9,862 444,000
Australia 7,593 1,143,000
Kazakhstan 5,279 816,000
Niger 3,434 225,000
Russia 3,400 172,000
Others 10,087 1,943,000
TOTAL 39,655 4,743,000
R/P [years] 120
URANIUM PRICES
Source: Trade Tech – www.uranium.info
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Mar-08
[USD/kg]
Price U3O8 20 22 25 41 64 110 200 157
NUCLEAR REACTORS
Source: World Nuclear Association
REACTORS Mar-08 GENERATION 07
No CAPACITY [MWe] [billion kWh]
US 104 99,049 806.6
France 59 63,473 420.1
Japan 55 47,577 267.0
Russia 31 21,743 148.0
Germany 17 20,339 133.2
China 11 8,587 59.3
Others 162 111,221 773.8
TOTAL 439 371,989 2,608
UTILIZATION FACTOR 80%
WIND POWER
Source: Global Wind Energy Council
2006 2007
[MW]
Germany 20,622 22,247
Spain 11,615 15,145
US 11,603 16,818
India 6,270 8,000
Denmark 3,136 3,125
China 2,604 6,050
Others 18,383 22,738
TOTAL 74,233 94,123
6. ARGENTINA
ENERGY CONSUMPTION 2007
Source: Argentine Energy Secretariat - BP Statistical Review of World 2008
Nuclear 3%
Coal 1%
Oil 38%
Renewables 5%
Natural Gas 53%
Nuclear 6%
Coal 28%
Oil 35%
Renewables 7%
Natural Gas 24%
ARGENTINA WORLD
ARGENTINE ENERGY CONSUMPTION
Source: Argentine Energy Secretariat
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
MMToe 65.4 63.0 68.3 71.4 71.7 77.9
ELECTRICITY GENERATION 2007
Source: Cammesa- EIA DOE – IEA – World Nuclear Association
Nuclear 6% Coal 1%
Oil 12%Hydro 36%
Natural Gas 45%
ARGENTINA WORLD
Nuclear 16% Coal 40%
Oil 10%Hydro 19%
Natural Gas 15%
ARGENTINE ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION
Source: Cammesa
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
GWh 86,015 81,348 86,442 93,286 98,160 104,627 108,482
ARGENTINE OIL PRODUCTION & CONSUMPTION
Source: Argentine Energy Secretariat
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
160.0
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Mm
3/d
Production Mm3/d Consumption Mm3/d
ARGENTINE NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION & CONSUMPTION
Source: Argentine Energy Secretariat – IAPG - Enargas
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
160.0
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
MM
m3/
d
Production MMm3/d Consumption MMm3/d
7. CONCLUSIONES
Energía en el mundoLa era de la escasez
MMM- Septiembre 07
CONCLUSIONES
Preámbulo
“Se avecinan tiempos de escasez y de precios cada vez más altos. Nuestro estilo de
vida está cambiando y va a seguir cambiando. Será un cambio ordenado si los
responsables en el orden mundial reaccionan a tiempo. Será un cambio caótico si,
como hasta ahora, los hechos llevan la delantera y las decisiones se toman cuando
ya es demasiado tarde.”
La Tecnología
“Muchos analistas confían en que los proyectos de investigación y desarrollo en
curso aportarán nuevas y maravillosas fuentes que solucionen nuestros problemas
energéticos y, también, ambientales. “El ser humano tiene una enorme creatividad,
pronto surgirá la tecnología adecuada”, escuchamos con frecuencia. Mi opinión es
que, posiblemente, habrá novedades, pero nada nos evitará entrar de lleno en la
crisis que se avecina.”
CONCLUSIONES
P x Q . Oferta y Demanda
“En la ecuación energética de P, precio, y Q, cantidad, ambas tan importantes para
nuestra vida en general, la única variable que debería interesarle a partir de ahora a
los países y a las sociedades en general es “asegurar Q”. A cualquier precio, porque
la energía más cara es la que no se tiene.”
¿Quién se hace cargo?
“Desde el tablero de las decisiones energéticas, los tiempos se cuentan en lustros o
décadas. Cuando llega el dolor es tarde porque ya no hay tratamiento posible. Se
requieren verdaderos estadistas a escala mundial para corregir el rumbo a tiempo,
principalmente porque ninguna de las soluciones posibles tiene “aceptación pública”
inmediata.”
ENERGÍA EN EL MUNDO
LA ERA DE LA ESCASEZ
Marcelo Martínez Mosquera
Foro de la Ingeniería – 23 de Julio de 2008
