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Jure Leskovec Machine Learning Department Carnegie Mellon University. Dynamics of networks. Networks: Rich data. Today: L arge on-line systems have detailed records of human activity On-line communities: Facebook (64 million users, billion dollar business) MySpace (300 million users) - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Dynamics of networks
Jure LeskovecMachine Learning DepartmentCarnegie Mellon University
2
Networks: Rich data Today: Large on-line systems have detailed records of
human activity On-line communities:
▪ Facebook (64 million users, billion dollar business)▪ MySpace (300 million users)
Communication:▪ Instant Messenger (~1 billion users)
News and Social media:▪ Blogging (250 million blogs world-wide, presidential candidates run
blogs) On-line worlds:
▪ World of Warcraft (internal economy 1 billion USD)▪ Second Life (GDP of 700 million USD in ‘07)
Opportunities for impact in science and industry
3
The networks
b) Internet (AS)c) Social networksa) World wide web
d) Communication e) Citationsf) Protein interactions
4
Networks: What do we know? We know lots about the network structure:
Properties: Scale free [Barabasi ’99], 6-degrees of separation [Milgram ’67], Navigation [Adamic-Adar ’03, LibenNowell ’05], Bipartite cores [Kumar et al. ’99], Network motifs [Milo et al. ‘02], Communities [Newman ‘99], Conductance [Mihail-Papadimitriou-Saberi ‘06], Hubs and authorities [Page et al. ’98, Kleinberg ‘99]
Models: Preferential attachment [Barabasi ’99], Small-world [Watts-Strogatz ‘98], Copying model [Kleinberg el al. ’99], Heuristically optimized tradeoffs [Fabrikant et al. ‘02], Congestion [Mihail et al. ‘03], Searchability [Kleinberg ‘00], Bowtie [Broder et al. ‘00], Transit-stub [Zegura ‘97], Jellyfish [Tauro et al. ‘01]
We know much less about processes and
dynamics of networks
5
My research: Network dynamics
Network Dynamics: Network evolution
▪ How network structure changes as the network grows and evolves?
Diffusion and cascading behavior▪ How do rumors and diseases spread over networks?
6
My research: Scale matters We need massive network data for the
patterns to emerge: MSN Messenger network [WWW ’08, Nature ‘08]
(the largest social network ever analyzed)▪ 240M people, 255B messages, 4.5 TB data
Product recommendations [EC ‘06]
▪ 4M people, 16M recommendations Blogosphere [work in progress]
▪ 60M posts, 120M links
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My research: The structure
Diffusion & Cascades
Network Evolution
Patterns & Observatio
ns
Q1: What do cascades look like? Trees? Stars? Chains?
Q4: How does network structure change as the network grows/evolves?
Models & Algorithms
Q2: How do we find influential nodes?Q3: How do we quickly detect epidemics?
Q5: How do we generate realistic looking and evolving networks?
8
My research: The structure
Diffusion & Cascades
Network Evolution
Patterns & Observatio
ns
Q1: What do cascades look like? Trees? Stars? Chains?
Q4: How does network structure change as the network grows/evolves?
Models & Algorithms
Q2: How do we find influential nodes?Q3: How do we quickly detect epidemics?
Q5: How do we generate realistic looking and evolving networks?
9
Diffusion and Cascades Behavior that cascades from node to node like an
epidemic News, opinions, rumors Word-of-mouth in marketing Infectious diseases
As activations spread through the network they leave a trace – a cascade
Cascade (propagation graph)Network
10
Setting 1: Viral marketing
People send and receive product recommendations, purchase products
Data: Large online retailer: 4 million people, 16 million recommendations, 500k products
10% credit 10% off
[w/ Adamic-Huberman, EC ’06]
11
Setting 2: Blogosphere
Bloggers write posts and refer (link) to other posts and the information propagates
Data: 10.5 million posts, 16 million links
[w/ Glance-Hurst et al., SDM ’07]
12
Viral marketing cascades are more social: Collisions (no summarizers) Richer non-tree structures
Q1) What do cascades look like? Are they stars? Chains? Trees?
Information cascades (blogosphere):
Viral marketing (DVD recommendations):
(ordered by frequency)
prop
agat
ion
[w/ Kleinberg-Singh, PAKDD ’06]
13
My research: The structure
Diffusion & Cascades
Network Evolution
Patterns & Observatio
ns
A1: Cascade shapes. Viral marketing cascades more social.
Q4: How does network structure change as the network grows/evolves?
Models & Algorithms
Q2: How do we find influential nodes?Q3: How do we quickly detect epidemics?
Q5:How do we generate realistic looking and evolving networks?
14
Cascade & outbreak detection Blogs – information epidemics
Which are the influential/infectious blogs?
Viral marketing Who are the trendsetters? Influential people?
Disease spreading Where to place monitoring stations to detect
epidemics?
15
The problem: Detecting cascades
How to quickly detect epidemics as they spread?
c1
c2
c3
[w/ Krause-Guestrin et al., KDD ’07](best student paper)
16
Two parts to the problem Cost:
Cost of monitoring is node dependent
Reward: Minimize the number of affected
nodes:▪ If A are the monitored nodes, let R(A)
denote the number of nodes we save
We also consider other rewards: ▪ Minimize time to detection▪ Maximize number of detected outbreaks
R(A)A
( )
[w/ Krause-Guestrin et al., KDD ’07](best student paper)
17
Reward for detecting cascade i
Given: Graph G(V,E), budget M Data on how cascades C1, …, Ci, …,CK spread over time
Select a set of nodes A maximizing the reward
subject to cost(A) ≤ M
Solving the problem exactly is NP-hard Max-cover [Khuller et al. ’99]
Optimization problem
18
Detection: Solution outline
Problem structure:Submodularity of the reward functions
CELF:algorithm with approximate guarantee
Speed up:Lazy evaluation to speed-up CELF
We extend the result of [Kempe-Kleinberg-Tardos ’03]
[w/ Krause-Guestrin et al., KDD ’07](best student paper)
19
Reward function are submodular
Theorem: Reward function R is submodular (diminishing returns, think of it as “convexity”)
(best student paper)[w/ Krause-Guestrin et al., KDD ’07]
Gain of adding a node to a small set
Gain of adding a node to a large set
R(A {u}) – R(A) ≥ R(B {u}) – R(B)
A B
S1
S2
Placement A={S1, S2}
S’
New monitored
node:
Adding S’ helps a lotS2
S4
S1
S3
Placement B={S1, S2, S3, S4}
S’
Adding S’ helps very
little
20
Solution: CELF Algorithm
We develop CELF (cost-effective lazy forward-selection) algorithm: Two independent runs of a modified greedy
▪ Solution set A’: ignore cost, greedily optimize reward▪ Solution set A’’: greedily optimize reward/cost ratio
Pick best of the two: arg max(R(A’), R(A’’))
Theorem: If R is submodular then CELF is near optimal CELF achieves ½(1-1/e) factor approximation
For the size of our problems naïve CELF is too slow
(best student paper)[w/ Krause-Guestrin et al., KDD ’07]
21
Scaling up: Lazy evaluation Observation:
Submodularity guarantees that marginal rewards decrease with the solution size
Idea: Use marginal reward from previous step as a upper
bound on current marginal reward
d
Marginal reward
ab
c
d
e
22
CELF: Lazy evaluation
CELF algorithm: Keep an ordered list of
marginal rewards ri from previous step
Re-evaluate ri only for the top node
a
b
c
ab
cd
d
e
e
Marginal reward
23
CELF: Lazy evaluation
CELF algorithm: Keep an ordered list of
marginal rewards ri from previous step
Re-evaluate ri only for the top node
a
ab
c
d
d
b
c
e
e
Marginal reward
24
CELF: Lazy evaluation
CELF algorithm: Keep an ordered list of
marginal rewards ri from previous step
Re-evaluate ri only for the top node
a
c
ab
c
d
d
b
Marginal reward
e
e
25
Blogs: Information epidemics
For more info see our website: www.blogcascade.org
Which blogs should one read to catch big stories?
CELF
In-links
Random
# postsOut-links
Number of selected blogs (sensors)
Reward
(higher is
better)
(used by Technorati)
26
CELF: Scalability
CELF
GreedyExhaustive search
CELF runs 700x faster than simple greedy algorithm
Number of selected blogs (sensors)
Run time
(seconds)
(lower is better)
27
Same problem: Water Network Given:
a real city water distribution network
data on how contaminants spread over time
Place sensors (to save lives)
Problem posed by the US Environmental Protection Agency
SS
c1
c2
[w/ Krause et al., J. of Water Resource Planning]
28
Water network: Results
Our approach performed best at the Battle of Water Sensor Networks competition
CELF
PopulationRandom
Flow
Degree
Author Score
CMU (CELF) 26
Sandia 21U Exter 20Bentley systems 19Technion (1) 14Bordeaux 12U Cyprus 11U Guelph 7U Michigan 4Michigan Tech U 3Malcolm 2Proteo 2Technion (2) 1
Number of placed sensors
Population
saved(higher is better)
[w/ Ostfeld et al., J. of Water Resource Planning]
29
My research: The structure
Diffusion & Cascades
Network Evolution
Patterns & Observatio
ns
A1: Cascade shapes. Viral marketing cascades more social.
Q4: How does network structure change as the network grows/evolves?
Models & Algorithms
A2, A3: CELF algorithm for detecting cascades and outbreaks
Q5: How do we generate realistic looking and evolving networks?
30
Background: Network models
Empirical findings on real graphs led to new network models
Such models make assumptions/predictions about other network properties
What about network evolution?
log degree
log
pro
b. Model
Power-law degree distribution
Preferential attachment
Explains
31
Networks are denser over time Densification Power Law:
a … densification exponent (1 ≤ a ≤ 2)
Q4) Network evolution What is the relation between the
number of nodes and the edges over time?
Prior work assumes: constant average degree over time
Internet
Citations
a=1.2
a=1.6
N(t)
E(t)
N(t)
E(t)
[w/ Kleinberg-Faloutsos, KDD ’05](best research paper)
32
Q4) Network evolution Prior models and intuition say
that the network diameter slowly grows (like log N, log log N)
time
diam
eter
diam
eter
size of the graph
Internet
Citations
Diameter shrinks over time as the network grows the
distances between the nodes slowly decrease
[w/ Kleinberg-Faloutsos, KDD ’05](best research paper)
33
Q5) Generating realistic graphs Want to generate realistic networks:
Why synthetic graphs? Anomaly detection, Simulations, Predictions, Null-model, Sharing privacy
sensitive graphs, …
Q: What is a good model that we can fit to the data? A: Next slide. Q: Which network properties do we care about? A: Don’t commit, let’s match adjacency matrices
Compare graphs properties, e.g., degree
distribution
Given a real network
Generate a synthetic network
34
The model: Kronecker graphs
We prove Kronecker graphs mimic real graphs: Power-law degree distribution, Densification,
Shrinking/stabilizing diameter, Spectral properties
Initiator
(9x9)(3x3)
(27x27)
Kronecker product of graph adjacency matrices
[w/ Chakrabarti-Kleinberg-Faloutsos, PKDD ’05]
pij
Edge probability
35
Maximum likelihood estimation
Kronecker graphs: Estimation
Naïve estimation takes O(N!N2): N! for different node labelings:
▪ Our solution: Metropolis sampling: N! (big) const N2 for traversing graph adjacency matrix
▪ Our solution: Kronecker product (E << N2): N2 E Do stochastic gradient descent
a bc d
P( | ) Kroneckerarg max
We estimate the model in O(E)
[w/ Faloutsos, ICML ’07]
36
Estimation: Epinions (N=76k, E=510k)
We search the space of ~101,000,000
permutations Fitting takes 2 hours Real and Kronecker are very close
Degree distribution
node degree
prob
abilit
y
0.99 0.54
0.49 0.13
Path lengths
number of hops
# re
acha
ble
pairs
“Network” values
rankne
twor
k va
lue
[w/ Faloutsos, ICML ’07]
37
My research: The structure
Diffusion &
CascadesNetwork Evolution
Patterns &
Observations
A1: Cascade shapes. Viral marketing cascades more social.
A4: Densification,
Shrinking diameters
Models & Algorithm
s
algorithm for
detecting cascades and
outbreaks
A5: Kronecker graphs,
Estimating Kronecker initiator
Other topics
Conclusion andFuture work
A2, A3: CELF
38
Other work
P1) Query Projections: Predicting search result quality without
page content
P2) MSN Instant Messenger: Social network of the whole world
39
P1) Query Projections User types in a query to a search engine Search engine returns results:
Is this a good set of search results?
Result returned by the search engine
HyperlinksNon-search resultsconnecting the graph
[w/ Dumais-Horvitz, WWW ’07]
QQuery Results Projection on the web graph
Query projection graph
Generate graphical features
Query connection graph
• -- -- ----• --- --- ----• ------ ---• ----- --- --• ------ -----• ------ -----
Construct case
libraryPredictions
Query projections: Idea
Extracting graph features The idea
Find features that describe the structure of the graph
Then use the features for machine learning
Want features that describe Connectivity of the graph Centrality of projection and
connector nodes Clustering and density of the
core of the graph
vs.
Search results quality Dataset:
Graph: 40 million nodes, 720 million edges 30,000 queries with top 20 results for each
▪ Human assigned relevance. 6-point scale: Perfect to Bad
Task: Predict the highest rating in the set of results
▪ 2-class problem: “Good” (top 3 ratings) vs. “Poor” (bottom 3)
Result: Predict search result quality with 80% accuracy
just from the connection patterns between the results
43
Query Projections: Intuition
Predict “Good”Predict “Poor”
Good?
Poor?
[w/ Dumais-Horvitz, WWW ’07]
Search quality: The model
Good result sets have: Search result nodes are hub
nodes in the graph Small connector node degrees Big connected component Few isolated nodes in projection
graph Few connector nodes
Attributes Accuracy
Marginals 0.55RankNet 0.63Query
projection 0.82
45
P2) Planetary look on a small-world
Milgram’s small world experiment
(i.e., hops + 1)
Lots of engineering effort and good hardware: 4 dual-core Opteron
server 48GB memory 6.8TB of fast SCSI disks
How to learn short paths?
Small-world experiment [Milgram ‘67] People send letters from Nebraska to Boston
How many steps does it take? Messenger social network – largest network analyzed
240M people, 30B conversations, 4.5TB data
[w/ Horvitz, WWW ’08, Nature ‘08]
MSN Messenger network
Number of steps
between pairs of people
46
My research: The structure
Diffusion & Cascades
Network Evolution
Patterns & Observatio
ns
A1: Cascade shapes. Viral marketing cascades more social.
A4: Densification,
Shrinking diameters
Models & Algorithms
A2, A3: CELF algorithm for detecting cascades and outbreaks
A5: Kronecker graphs,
Estimating Kronecker initiator
Big data
matters
47
Future direction 1: Diffusion
How do news and information spread New ranking and influence measures for blogs Sentiment analysis from cascade structure Crawling 2 million blogs/day (with Spinn3r)
Obscure technology story
Small
tech blog
WiredSlashd
otNew Scientis
t New York
TimesCNN
BBC
48
Future direction 1: Diffusion Models of information diffusion
When, where and what post will create a cascade? Where should one tap the network to get the
effect they want? Social Media Marketing
How to handle richer classes of graphs Interaction of network structure and
node/edge attributes
49
Future direction 2: Evolution Why are networks the way they are?
Continue work on fundamental properties of networks Build models and understanding Network community structure
Health of a social network Steer the network evolution Adoption of social networking services (with Facebook)
Predictive modeling of large communities Online multi-player games are closed worlds with detailed traces
of human activity Predict success of guilds, battles, elections (with EVE online)
50
Future direction 3: Scaling up Map-reduce for massive graphs
Algorithms and techniques for massive graphs With Yahoo! Research:
4000 node Hadoop cluster ▪ world’s 50th fastest supercomputer▪ 3 TB memory▪ 1.5 PB storage
We already have new ways to peek into the structure of massive networks
51
Networks & Computer Science
Computer
systems
Theory and
algorithms
Machine learning /
Data mining
(complex) networks
52
Networks & Science
Computer
systems
Theory and
algorithms
Machine learning /
Data mining
Social Science
s
Biology
Physics
Applications &
Industry
Statistics
(complex) networks
53
Christos FaloutsosJon Kleinberg
Andreas KrauseCarlos Guestrin
Eric HorvitzSusan Dumais
Andrew TomkinsRavi Kumar
Lada AdamicBernardo Huberman
Kevin LangMichael ManoheyZoubin GharamaniAnirban Dasgupta
Tom MitchellJohn Lafferty
Larry WassermanAvrim Blum
Samuel MaddenMichalis Faloutsos
Ajit SinghJohn Shawe-Taylor
Lars BackstromMarko Grobelnik
Natasa Milic-FraylingDunja Mladenic
Jeff HammerbacherMatt Hurst
Deepay ChakrabartiNatalie Glance
Jeanne VanBriesen
Microsoft ResearchYahoo Research
FacebookEve online
Spinn3rLinkedIn
Nielsen BuzzMetricsMicrosoft Live Labs
Acknowledgments
54
My research: The structure
Diffusion & Cascades
Network Evolution
Patterns & Observatio
ns
A1: Cascade shapes. Viral marketing cascades more social.
A4: Densification,
Shrinking diameters
Models & Algorithms
A2, A3: CELF algorithm for detecting cascades and outbreaks
A5: Kronecker graphs,
Estimating Kronecker initiator
Big data matters