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Report By: Surbhi Bagaria [email protected]

Dynamic Levels Sona Koyo · 2018-01-16 · Financial year 2016 saw the Indian automobile industry maintain positive growth across all segments. The Passenger Vehicle (PV) segment,

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Page 1: Dynamic Levels Sona Koyo · 2018-01-16 · Financial year 2016 saw the Indian automobile industry maintain positive growth across all segments. The Passenger Vehicle (PV) segment,

1 | P a g e

Page | 1

Report By: Surbhi Bagaria – [email protected]

Page 2: Dynamic Levels Sona Koyo · 2018-01-16 · Financial year 2016 saw the Indian automobile industry maintain positive growth across all segments. The Passenger Vehicle (PV) segment,

Page 2 Source: Company, www.dynamiclevels.com

Sona Koyo Steering Systems Ltd- India's largest manufacturer of steering systems.

Company Overview and Stock Price 3

Sona Koyo’s Product Portfolio 4

Company Financials 5

Peer Comparison 9

Shareholding Pattern 10

Growth Prospects 11

Industry Overview 12

Investment Rationale 13

Page 3: Dynamic Levels Sona Koyo · 2018-01-16 · Financial year 2016 saw the Indian automobile industry maintain positive growth across all segments. The Passenger Vehicle (PV) segment,

Page 3 Source: Company, www.dynamiclevels.com

Company’s Overview and Stock Price

Sona Koyo Steering Systems Ltd is the flagship company of The Sona Group, engaged in the manufacture of steering systems for the passenger car and utility vehicle market in India.

Sona Koyo is the largest manufacturer of steering systems in India,

catering to passenger cars, utility vehicles and light commercial

vehicles. Sona Koyo has technical and financial collaboration with

JTEKT Corporation, Japan (formally known as Koyo Seiko Co. Ltd.), the

largest producer of passenger vehicles' steering systems in the world.

Sona Koyo's customers include major vehicle manufactures in India

such as Maruti Suzuki, Toyota, Hyundai, Tata Motors, Mahindra &

Mahindra, General Motors and Ford. Independently, as well as through

its network of overseas joint-venture partners, it exports high quality

precision products to USA, Europe and Japan.

.

COMPANY PROFILE OF SONA KOYO

Date of Incorporation 14-June-1984 Date of Listing 03-Jan-1995

Management Name Designation Sunjay Kapur Chairman Kiyozumi Kamiki Deputy Managing

Director Shamsher Singh Mehta

Director

Ramni Nirula Director Ravi Bhoothalingam Director Ramesh Suri Director Prasan Abhaykumar Firodia

Director

P K Chadha Director Kazuhiko Ayabe Director Hidekazu Omura Director Rani Kapur Director Kiran Manohar Deshmukh

Executive Vice Chairman

Registered Office Address UGF-6, Indra Prakash, 21, Barakhamba Road,110001,New Delhi, Delhi, India

Website www.sonakoyosteering.com

BROAD INDUSTRY Auto Ancillaries PE ratio 34.2 MARKET CAP

(RS. CR.) 1307.64

INDUSTRY Automobiles % Pledge 0 FV/ML 1/1

GROUP Sona Group NSE CODE SONASTEER 52 WEEK

HIGH/LOW (RS.) 75/37

LTP (RS.) 67.75 INST.INVESTORS

(%) 1.44

PROMOTERS (%)

52.33

Chart Hypothesis: This is the weekly price chart of

SonaKoyo for last 1 yr, in which we can see that it

made a recent high of 75 and has given correction

of 15%. 65 is a good support level.

Page 4: Dynamic Levels Sona Koyo · 2018-01-16 · Financial year 2016 saw the Indian automobile industry maintain positive growth across all segments. The Passenger Vehicle (PV) segment,

Page 4 Source: Company, www.dynamiclevels.com

Sona Koyo’s Product Portfolio

1. High performance tilt steering column

2. High performance intermediate shaft for CEPS

3. High performance telescopic shaft for steering column

4. Advanced telescopic I-shaft for CEPS

5. Improved hydraulic power steering gear

6. High performance steering gear for CEPS system

7. Electronically controlled power steering system (ECPS)

8. Advanced column technology for HCV

9. Advanced telescopic I-shaft technology for HCV

10. Advanced steering column with value added features

11. Intermediate shaft with vibration dampener for UV

12. Improved steering column

13. Steer-by-Wire

14. Steering Electronic Control Unit

15. Electric Power Assist Module (EPAM)

Page 5: Dynamic Levels Sona Koyo · 2018-01-16 · Financial year 2016 saw the Indian automobile industry maintain positive growth across all segments. The Passenger Vehicle (PV) segment,

Page 5 Source: Company, www.dynamiclevels.com

Company Financials

Income Statement ( In Cr) June-16 June-15 % Growth

Quarterly Quarterly (YoY)

Net Sales/Income from operations 346.38 372.36 -7%

Other Operating Income 1.89 2.32 -19%

Total Income From Operations 348.27 374.67 -7%

Increase/Decrease in Stocks -3.44 4.63 -174%

Consumption of Raw Materials 223.14 242.04 -8%

Purchase of Traded Goods 4.51 4.37 3%

Employees Cost 43.05 40.55 6%

Depreciation 25.3 24.51 3%

Other Expenses 38.52 39.26 -2%

Total Expenditure 331.08 355.37 -7%

Operating Profit 17.19 19.3 -11%

Other Income 1.51 1.29 17%

P/L Before Int., Excpt. Items & Tax 18.69 20.6 -9%

Interest 7.94 7.4 7%

P/L Before Exceptional Items & Tax 10.75 13.19 -18%

P/L Before Tax 10.75 13.19 -18%

Tax 3.67 4.88 -25%

P/L After Tax from Ordinary Activities 7.08 8.32 -15%

PAT 7.37 8.32 -11%

Minority Interest -2.17 -4.12 -47%

Share Of P/L Of Associates -0.03 -0.05 -40%

Net Profit/(Loss) For the Period 5.17 4.14 25%

Prior Year Adjustments 0.29 -- Equity Share Capital 19.87 19.87 0%

EPS (Rs.) 0.26 0.21 24%

Page 6: Dynamic Levels Sona Koyo · 2018-01-16 · Financial year 2016 saw the Indian automobile industry maintain positive growth across all segments. The Passenger Vehicle (PV) segment,

Page 6 Source: Company, www.dynamiclevels.com

Balance Sheet FY-16 FY-15 % Growth

EQUITIES AND LIABILITIES SHAREHOLDERS FUNDS Equity Share Capital 399 397.97 0.26%

Equity Share Capital 19.87 19.87 0%

Total Share Capital 19.87 19.87 0%

Reserves and Surplus 327.43 303.55 8%

Total Reserves and Surplus 327.43 303.55 8%

Total Shareholders Funds 347.3 323.42 7%

Minority Interest 111.59 98.6 13%

NON-CURRENT LIABILITIES Long Term Borrowings 155.88 167.47 -7%

Deferred Tax Liabilities [Net] 33.78 41.64 -19%

Other Long Term Liabilities 0.09 0.14 -36%

Long Term Provisions 7.32 6.78 8%

Total Non-Current Liabilities 197.08 216.03 -9%

CURRENT LIABILITIES Short Term Borrowings 67.6 42.36 60%

Trade Payables 194.42 192.55 1%

Other Current Liabilities 114.02 120.23 -5%

Short Term Provisions 20.08 19.9 1%

Total Current Liabilities 396.12 375.04 6%

Total Capital And Liabilities 1,052.10 1,013.09 4%

ASSETS NON-CURRENT ASSETS Tangible Assets 553.69 546.9 1%

Intangible Assets 45.95 37.25 23%

Capital Work-In-Progress 22.22 49.01 -55%

Intangible Assets Under Development 18.27 14.18 29%

Fixed Assets 640.12 647.34 -1%

Non-Current Investments 0.85 1.18 -28%

Long Term Loans And Advances 12.88 7.19 79%

Other Non-Current Assets 0.45 0.4 13%

Total Non-Current Assets 654.31 656.11 0%

CURRENT ASSETS Inventories 99.12 100.4 -1%

Trade Receivables 215.26 189.19 14%

Cash And Cash Equivalents 36.29 17.98 102%

Short Term Loans And Advances 25.51 32.24 -21%

Other Current Assets 21.61 17.17 26%

Total Current Assets 397.79 356.98 11%

Total Assets 1,052.10 1,013.09 4%

Page 7: Dynamic Levels Sona Koyo · 2018-01-16 · Financial year 2016 saw the Indian automobile industry maintain positive growth across all segments. The Passenger Vehicle (PV) segment,

Page 7 Source: Company, www.dynamiclevels.com

Peer Comparison

Ratios FY-16 FY-15 Growth %

PER SHARE RATIOS Diluted EPS (Rs.) 1.86 1.91 -3%

Cash EPS (Rs.) 7.69 8.19 -6%

Book Value[Excl.RevalReserv]/Share (Rs.) 17.48 16.27 7%

Book Value[Incl.RevalReserv]/Share (Rs.) 17.48 16.27 7%

Revenue From Operations / Share (Rs.) 76.4 78.14 -2%

PBDIT / Share (Rs.) 10.56 11.1 -5%

PBIT / Share (Rs.) 5.59 5.88 -5%

PBT / Share (Rs.) 4 4.31 -7%

Net Profit / Share (Rs.) 2.72 2.97 -8%

NP After MI And SOA / Share (Rs.) 1.86 1.91 -3%

PROFITABILITY RATIOS PBDIT Margin (%) 13.82 14.2 -3%

PBIT Margin (%) 7.32 7.52 -3%

PBT Margin (%) 5.23 5.51 -5%

Net Profit Margin (%) 3.56 3.79 -6%

NP After MI And SOA Margin (%) 2.43 2.44 0%

Return on Networth / Equity (%) 10.66 11.71 -9%

Return on Capital Employeed (%) 5.64 5.93 -5%

Return On Assets (%) 3.52 3.74 -6%

Long Term Debt / Equity (X) 0.44 0.51 -14%

Total Debt / Equity (X) 0.64 0.64 0%

Asset Turnover Ratio (%) 144.31 153.28 -6%

LIQUIDITY RATIOS Current Ratio (X) 1 0.95 5%

Quick Ratio (X) 0.75 0.68 10%

Inventory Turnover Ratio (X) 15.32 15.47 -1%

Dividend Payout Ratio (NP) (%) 26.82 34.08 -21%

Dividend Payout Ratio (CP) (%) 7.31 9.12 -20%

Earning Retention Ratio (%) 73.18 65.92 11%

Cash Earning Retention Ratio (%) 92.69 90.88 2%

COVERAGE RATIOS Interest Coverage Ratio (%) 3.5 3.75 -7%

Interest Coverage Ratio (Post Tax) (%) 2.71 2.89 -6%

VALUATION RATIOS Enterprise Value (Cr.) 1222.94 1292.1 -5%

EV / Net Operating Revenue (X) 0.8 0.83 -4%

EV / EBITDA (X) 5.83 5.86 -1%

MarketCap / Net Operating Revenue (X) 0.6 0.64 -6%

Retention Ratios (%) 73.17 65.91 11%

Price / BV (X) 2.66 3.1 -14%

Page 8: Dynamic Levels Sona Koyo · 2018-01-16 · Financial year 2016 saw the Indian automobile industry maintain positive growth across all segments. The Passenger Vehicle (PV) segment,

Page 8 Source: Company, www.dynamiclevels.com

Cash Flow Statement FY-16 FY-15

Net Profit/Loss Before Extraordinary Items And Tax 79.45 85.71

Net CashFlow From Operating Activities 131.47 198.63

Net Cash Used In Investing Activities -78.71 -81.32

Net Cash Used From Financing Activities -34.71 -102.5

Net Inc/Dec In Cash And Cash Equivalents 18.05 14.82

Cash And Cash Equivalents Begin of Year 16.42 1.6

Cash And Cash Equivalents End Of Year 34.47 16.42

Net Profit/Loss Before Extraordinary Items And Tax 79.45 85.71

Page 9: Dynamic Levels Sona Koyo · 2018-01-16 · Financial year 2016 saw the Indian automobile industry maintain positive growth across all segments. The Passenger Vehicle (PV) segment,

Page 9 Source: Company, www.dynamiclevels.com

Peer Comparison:

Comparative Ratio Analysis

COMPANY NAME NPM(%) AVERAGE 3-YEARS

RONW(%) AVERAGE 3-YEARS

Sona Koyo Steer. 3.56 4.38 10.66 14.77

JMT Auto Ltd. -2.87 0.6 0 3.53

The Hi-Tech Gears 4.7 4.46 12.75 11.93

ZF Steering Gear 5.98 5.57 11.33 9.11

Bharat Gears 0.06 -0.27 0.36 0.4

Valuation

COMPANY NAME CURRENT PRICE(RS.)

P/E P/BV MCAP/REVENUES

Sona Koyo Steer. 67.6 36.34 3.87 0.88

JMT Auto Ltd. 26.15 15.57 4.39 0.9

The Hi-Tech Gears 357.25 40.23 7.4 1.49

ZF Steering Gear 1510 53.99 6.12 3.23

Bharat Gears 160.95 519.19 1.77 0.32

Financial Comparision

COMPANY NAME REVENUES (RS CR.)

3- YEAR CAGR(%)

PBDIT (RS CR.)

3- YEAR CAGR(%) PAT (RS CR.)

3- YEAR CAGR(%)

Sona Koyo Steer. 1,518.30 1.31 79.45 2.25 37.05 -0.92

JMT Auto Ltd. 1,467.39 68.39 -30.4 0 -42.21 0

The Hi-Tech Gears 449.97 6.41 34.26 13.16 21.16 9.28

ZF Steering Gear 423.98 10.65 37.86 -8.23 25.37 -0.32

Bharat Gears 397.49 0.41 0.52 -58.67 0.24 -63.57

Proportionate Distribution (%)

Particulars Total Sona Koyo

Steer. JMT Auto

Ltd. The Hi-Tech

Gears

ZF Steering

Gear Bharat Gears

(Rs Cr.)

Revenue 4,257.13 35.66% 34.47% 10.57% 9.96% 9.34%

PBDIT 121.69 65.29% -24.98% 28.16% 31.11% 0.43%

PAT 41.61 89.03% -101.43% 50.86% 60.98% 0.58%

Page 10: Dynamic Levels Sona Koyo · 2018-01-16 · Financial year 2016 saw the Indian automobile industry maintain positive growth across all segments. The Passenger Vehicle (PV) segment,

Page 10 Source: Company, www.dynamiclevels.com

Shareholding Pattern

Page 11: Dynamic Levels Sona Koyo · 2018-01-16 · Financial year 2016 saw the Indian automobile industry maintain positive growth across all segments. The Passenger Vehicle (PV) segment,

Page 11 Source: Company, www.dynamiclevels.com

Growth Prospects: Financial year 2016 saw the Indian automobile industry maintain

positive growth across all segments. The Passenger Vehicle (PV)

segment, in particular, witnessed high growth of 6.9% during the

year, mainly driven by new launches. Sona Koyo faced the

situation of stagnant sales in the last year caused due to shift in

customer preference for few Car Models which performed

exceptionally well and where the Company didn’t participate.

Participating in many exciting upcoming launches, the Company

is expected to achieve better performance in future years.

Sona Koyo continued to broaden its product portfolio across all

steering systems. During the year, Sona Koyo made new inroads

into the off-highway segments, modifying its internationally

proven Electric Power Assist Module (EPAM) to new product

markets namely the domestic tractor segment, sports vehicles

and special vehicles.

Sona Koyo also continued to build relationships with existing

clients while adding new customers. During the year, the

Company started supplying steering assembly to Eicher Pollaris.

The column division of the Company won business from Tafe and

the work on new product development is progressing well.

The Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM) has

predicted a growth rate of ~6-8% in FY17 for the overall PV

segment. ICRA also expects domestic PV sales to grow by 8.5% -

9.5% in FY17 backed by replacement demand and off-take from

first time buyers. Sona Koyo is now well positioned to grow given

its presence in several upcoming models; new product launches

that will open new market segments and growth in exports.

Page 12: Dynamic Levels Sona Koyo · 2018-01-16 · Financial year 2016 saw the Indian automobile industry maintain positive growth across all segments. The Passenger Vehicle (PV) segment,

Page 12 Source: Company, www.dynamiclevels.com

Industry Overview

Overall PV volumes grew by 6.9% to 3.4 mn units, with domestic

sales and exports registering growth of 7.2% to 2.8 mn units and

5.2% to 0.7 mn units, respectively, compared to 3.9% and 4.2% in

FY15. Within the PV segment, passenger cars grew by 7.9% YoY,

posting their highest domestic sales growth rate in 5 years. Low

commodity prices, improved performance in markets like the UK,

the US, Germany and France, coupled with new model launches

and incentive schemes for customers, helped boost growth. The

domestic commercial vehicles (CVs) segment reported 11.5%

growth with medium and heavy commercial vehicles (M&HCVs)

clocking 29.9% and light commercial vehicles (LCVs) growing by a

marginal 0.3%. Domestic three-wheelers posted a growth of 1%

with passenger carriers seeing a step up of 2.1% and goods

carriers declining by 3.6%. The government’s thrust on 'Make in

India', with a view to transform India into a manufacturing and

technology hub, has attracted new foreign direct investment

(FDI) into the automotive sector. The industry has seen

investments from both global and local OEMs with the effect of

building/expanding capacity and research and development

(R&D).

In FY16, India was the fastest-growing economy. The

International Monetary Fund (IMF) has predicted a growth of

7.5% for FY16 and FY17 for India, while it expects the world

economy to grow at 3.2% and 3.5% for FY16 and FY17,

respectively

In India, lower commodity prices and a relatively tight monetary

stance have resulted in a faster-than-expected fall in inflation,

making room for nominal interest rate cuts, According to IMF,

India’s growth will be driven by increase in private consumption,

benefited from lower energy prices, higher real incomes and pick

up in industrial activity followed by a recovery of private

investment. For FY16, the Index of Industrial Production (IIP)

witnessed a growth of 2.4% against a growth of 2.8% in FY15.

Manufacturing, which is the largest segment, grew 2% in FY16

against 2.3% last year. Industrial production in FY17 is expected

to pick up on the back of increased infrastructure spending by

government and improvement in both the consumer goods and

capital goods segments.

Page 13: Dynamic Levels Sona Koyo · 2018-01-16 · Financial year 2016 saw the Indian automobile industry maintain positive growth across all segments. The Passenger Vehicle (PV) segment,

Page 13 Source: Company, www.dynamiclevels.com

Investment Rationale:

Sona Koyo’s plans to invest in future growth and with that objective the Company has invested in a land

bank of 30 acres in Gujarat in order to be closer to the customer as most of the automotive customers

expand in the state of Gujarat. The land is ideally located on main highway SH-7 and is about 12 km from

the Suzuki plant and 6 km from the Honda plant.

Automotive Mission Plan (AMP) envisages auto component sector to be $150 bn by 2026: Vehicle sales

are expected to touch 66 million units by FY26. To achieve this projection, the auto industry will require

additional investment of Rs 4.5-5.5 trillion. The growth of the automotive market will translate into huge

potential for the auto component sector. According to AMP 2016-26, the auto component sector is

expected to grow at a CAGR of 13% from $38 billion in FY15 to more than $150 billion by 2026.

PV density expected to become 1.5 times of current vehicle penetration by 2020: India has the largest

population of young people in the world, yet a low vehicle penetration (PV) (32 vehicles per 1,000 people in

2015) makes it one of the world’s most attractive auto makers. Owing to its uniquw demographic dividend

and government initiatives, such as “Make in India’ and ‘Smart Cities’, the Indain Auto industry holds

immense growth potential. According to E&Y analysis, India’s PVs are expected to grow from around 29mn

during 2015 to more than 48 mn vehicles by 2020.

The government’s thrust on 'Make in India', with a view to transform India into a manufacturing and

technology hub, has attracted new foreign direct investment (FDI) into the automotive sector. The industry

has seen investments from both global and local OEMs with the effect of building/expanding capacity and

research and development (R&D).

Sustained growth for automotive industry in FY17: SIAM is expecting positive performance by the

automotive industry in FY17, forecasting growth of 6-8% in PV sales. Further, prediction by the Indian

Meteorological Department (IMD) of an above-average monsoon is expected to revive rural demand.

Announcement of the 7th Pay Commission of wage hikes, easing of interest rates and rising disposable

incomes in the hands of individuals will provide further fillip to demand. OEM’s have lined up a slew of new

launches for FY17, which, coupled with lucrative customer incentives, will boost demand. ICRA is expecting

domestic sales to grow by 8.5-9.5%, driven mainly by replacement demand and improved overall economic

environment.

We recommend BUY in Sona Koyo @ 66 with the Target of 80 as Sona Koyo is the largest manufacturer of steering systems in India, catering to passenger cars, utility vehicles and light commercial vehicles. Sona Koyo is a multibagger as the price has more than doubled from recent low of 37 to 76. It has strong track record of generating superior shareholder returns higher than the benchmark indices.

Page 14: Dynamic Levels Sona Koyo · 2018-01-16 · Financial year 2016 saw the Indian automobile industry maintain positive growth across all segments. The Passenger Vehicle (PV) segment,

Page 14 Source: Company, www.dynamiclevels.com

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