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DUBAIWeekly Highlights - Domestic Developments- Global Business Developments- Global Economic Developments
July, Week 2
Economic Research Department
Dubai Chamber of Commerce and Industry
I. Domestic DevelopmentsHealth: mass testing to help contain COVID-19
2Source: Ourworldindata, as of Jul 7, 2020
Figure 1 – Adjusted total confirmed COVID-19 cases in the GCC (cases per million person)
I. Domestic DevelopmentsEconomy: UAE PMI signals non-oil sector stabilizing in June
3Source: IHS Markit
40
45
50
55
60
65
'1 0 '1 1 '1 2 '1 3 '1 4 '1 5 '1 6 '1 7 '1 8 '1 9 '2 0
Source: IHS Markit.
50.4
index < 50 indicates contractionindex > 50 indicates expansion
Figure 2 – Monthly UAE PMI (index points)
Figure 4 – COOs issued for China-bound shipments (monthly, declared value in AED million)
249 224
246 249
283
386
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20
I. Domestic DevelopmentsDubai Trade: exports to Africa at pre-COVID19 avg. level, China hits record
4Source: DCCI Certificates of Origins (COOs) Database
Figure 3 – COOs issued for Africa-bound shipments (monthly, declared value in AED million)
2,775 2,786
3,256
2,514 2,451
2,936
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20
I. Domestic DevelopmentsTravel and Tourism: Dubai re-opened to tourists on July 7th
5Source: IATA, as of July 8th
Figure 5 – Current global border restrictions
6
II. Global Business Developments Travel and Tourism: optimism returning to business travel
Source: Global Business Travel Association (GBTA) Coronavirus Polls
Region
Plan to Resume Travel in Near Future (1-3 months)
Considering ResumingTravel in Near Future, but
No Definite Plans
Do not plan to resume travel in Near Future
Not Sure
June Poll May Poll June Poll May Poll June Poll May Poll June Poll May Poll
Asia Pacific (excl. China, Hong Kong, Taiwan)
12% 11% 39% 36% 32% 34% 18% 19%
-China 12% 11% 36% 34% 34% 36% 18% 19%
Europe 25% 16% 41% 43% 20% 25% 14% 16%
Latin America 13% 11% 40% 37% 29% 32% 18% 19%
United States 38% 28% 38% 44% 13% 16% 11% 12%
Canada 33% 24% 38% 41% 15% 20% 14% 16%
Middle East / Africa 13% 9% 37% 36% 32% 35% 17% 20%
All International Travel 12% 10% 44% 42% 28% 29% 16% 19%
All Domestic Travel 49% 35% 34% 45% 8% 10% 9% 11%
All Travel 22% 15% 50% 54% 12% 14% 16% 17%
Table 1 – Companies’ plans to resume business travel
Table 2 – Composite Index summary
Index May-20 Jun-20 Interpretation
Output 36.3 47.7 Decline, slower rate
New Business 35.8 47.7 Decline, slower rate
New Export Business 31.7 43.7 Decline, slower rate
Future Output 50.5 57.5 Growth expected, greater optimism
Employment 41.2 46.4 Decline, slower rate
Outstanding Business 39.8 46.9 Decline, slower rate
Input Prices 46.2 51.7 Inflation, from falling
Output Prices 45.7 49.5 Decline, slower rate
index < 50 indicates contractionindex > 50 indicates expansion
7
III. Global Economic Developments PMI: global economy approaching stabilization
Source: J.P.Morgan, IHS Markit
20
30
40
50
60
'08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20
47.7
index < 50 indicates contractionindex > 50 indicates expansion
Figure 6 – J.P.Morgan Global Composite Output Index
8Source: World Bank
III. Global Economic Developments Commodities: prices’ rebound continues in June
48.4
83.5
73.7
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Jan
-18
Feb
-18
Mar
-18
Ap
r-1
8
May
-18
Jun
-18
Jul-
18
Au
g-1
8
Sep
-18
Oct
-18
No
v-1
8
Dec
-18
Jan
-19
Feb
-19
Mar
-19
Ap
r-1
9
May
-19
Jun
-19
Jul-
19
Au
g-1
9
Sep
-19
Oct
-19
No
v-1
9
Dec
-19
Jan
-20
Feb
-20
Mar
-20
Ap
r-2
0
May
-20
Jun
-20
Energy Agriculture Metals and Minerals
Figure 7 – Commodity price indexes, monthly (2010 = 100)
9Source: World Bank
Figure 8 – Commodity prices in June compared to April and May (% change)
0%
-4% -6%
1% 1% 3% 3%7% 5%
0%
9% 10%13%
10%
3%
29%
-14%-9% -9% -7%
3%6% 7% 7%
11%15%
18% 19%21% 22% 23%
71%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
Ure
a
Wh
eat
Co
ffee
Ric
e (
Thai
25
%)
Go
ld
Zin
c
Co
tto
n
Alu
min
um
Rap
esee
d o
il
Be
ef
Silv
er
Suga
r
Tea
Iro
n o
re
Ch
icke
n
Cru
de
oil
/ B
ren
t
May-June % change April-June % change
III. Global Economic Developments Commodities: prices’ rebound continues in June (cont.)