Dr. Stefan Reese - Dr. Hans-Jörg Markau Department of Geography - University Kiel 12./13. May 2004 Microscale valuation analysis for the Langeoog island

Dr. Stefan Reese - Dr. Hans-Jörg Markau Department of Geography - University Kiel 12./13. May 2004

Microscale valuation analysis for Microscale valuation analysis for the Langeoog islandthe Langeoog island

Subproject 9Subproject 9 within the within the

EU-INTERREG III B project COMRISKEU-INTERREG III B project COMRISK

Dr. Stefan Reese / Dr. Hans-Jörg MarkauDr. Stefan Reese / Dr. Hans-Jörg Markau


ContentsContents

BackgroundBackground

ScalesScales

Risk-ConceptRisk-Concept

Valuation AnalysisValuation Analysis

Damage EstimationDamage Estimation

Final remarksFinal remarksValuation Analysis

Damage Analysis

Final remarks

Risk-Concept

Scales

Background


BackgroundBackground

The objective is a detailed risk The objective is a detailed risk assessment for the Langeoog assessment for the Langeoog IslandIsland

A detailed approach requires a A detailed approach requires a very detailed and time-consuming very detailed and time-consuming methodologymethodology

The methodology is based on the The methodology is based on the procedures developed by the procedures developed by the

University Kiel within the MERK University Kiel within the MERK projectproject

Valuation Analysis

Damage Analysis

Final remarks

Risk-Concept

Scales

Background


Size of the study area Preciseness

Expenses, Effort

Verydetailed

Medium

Inaccurate

HighMediumLow

Local

Regional

(Inter)National

Meso

Micro

Macro

Scales and Assessment Levels

ScalesScales

Valuation Analysis

Damage Analysis

Final remarks

Risk-Concept

Background

Scales

MACRO

MESO

Coastal lowlands < 5 m of Schleswig-HolsteinMICRO


Expenses, Effort

Verydetailed

Medium

Inaccurate

HighMediumLow

Local

Regional

(Inter)National

Meso

Micro

Macro



Expenses, Effort

Verydetailed

Medium

Inaccurate

HighMediumLow

Local

Regional

(Inter)National

Meso

Micro

Macro



Risk-ConceptRisk-Concept

Risk assessment requires Risk assessment requires several steps, procedures and several steps, procedures and large amount of datalarge amount of data

In MERK an integrated Risk-In MERK an integrated Risk-Concept was developedConcept was developed

In this framework Risk analysis In this framework Risk analysis is is apart from the risk evaluation and apart from the risk evaluation and

the risk management an important the risk management an important aspectaspect

Valuation Analysis

Damage Analysis

Final remarks

Scales

Background

Risk-Concept

I. I. Risk analysisRisk analysisNaturalNatural sphere sphere

-- not changeablenot changeable --SocioSocio--economic sphereeconomic sphere

-- changeablechangeable --

Risk Risk assessmentassessment

RiskRiskSpecificSpecific

Spezif. area

VulnerabilityVulnerability--

analysisanalysis

PresencePresence

HazardHazard

StrategiesStrategies

Time-scale Specif. Event

II. II. Risk evaluationRisk evaluation

VulnerabilityVulnerability

IntensityIntensity

PerilPeril

FutureFuture

FrequencyFrequency

HazardHazard

determinationdetermination

Elements at Elements at riskrisk

DamageDamage potentialpotential

Valuation analysisValuation analysis

ScenariosScenarios

Damage estimationDamage estimation


Valuation Analysis - MethodologyValuation Analysis - Methodology

The methodology of valuation The methodology of valuation analysis was developed in the analysis was developed in the MERK-projectMERK-projectSix study areas to consider Six study areas to consider different structures different structures

Risk-Concept

Damage Analysis

Final remarks

Scales

Background

Valuation Analysis

Kiel Urban area

Fehmarn Agricultural area

Timmendorfer Strand undScharbeutz Tourist area

Kaiser-Wilhelm-Koog Agricultural area

St. Peter-Ording Tourist area

Study areas - MERK



Different damage categories Different damage categories were assessed in MERK were assessed in MERK

Risk-Concept

Damage Analysis

Final remarks

Scales

Background

Valuation Analysis

Trauma,

Stress

of

Survivors

higher

Vulne-rability

reduced

Invest-ments

Storm surge damage categoriesStorm surge damage categories

indirectindirect

intangibleintangible

directdirect

primaryprimary secondary

secondary

tangibletangible


secondary

• Gross value added

• Gross value added • Jobs

• Guest beds

• Jobs• Guest

beds

intangibleintangible


secondary

tangibletangible


secondary

• Buildings• Private

inventory• Motor vehicles• Traffic areas• Agricultural

land• Livestock

assets• Forest land• Real estate

values• Recreational

land• Fixed assets• Stock values• Wind power

station

• Buildings• Private

inventory• Motor vehicles• Traffic areas• Agricultural

land• Livestock

assets• Forest land• Real estate

values• Recreational

land• Fixed assets• Stock values• Wind power

station

• Inhabitants

• Inhabitants


Macro- and mesoscale studies Macro- and mesoscale studies are mainly using state and federal are mainly using state and federal statisticsstatisticsMicroscale methods require very Microscale methods require very detailed information about detailed information about material and non-material valuesmaterial and non-material values

Risk-Concept

Damage Analysis

Final remarks

Scales

Background

Valuation Analysis




Data BaseData BaseALKALKDTMDTMDGK5 and ATKISDGK5 and ATKISField workField workInsurance companiesInsurance companiesInternal municipality dataInternal municipality dataInterviews with expertsInterviews with experts

Risk-Concept

Damage Analysis

Final remarks

Scales

Background

Valuation Analysis

Register of houses from 15.10.2003

Registry office: Langeoog Municipality: Langeoog Selection: Langeoog, Otto-Leuß-Weg

InhabitantsPostcode Street House number HW NW26465 Otto-Leuß-Weg 1 2 126465 Otto-Leuß-Weg 2 0 226465 Otto-Leuß-Weg 3 5 026465 Otto-Leuß-Weg 4 5 026465 Otto-Leuß-Weg 5 0 426465 Otto-Leuß-Weg 6 2 226465 Otto-Leuß-Weg 7 2 226465 Otto-Leuß-Weg 8 4 126465 Otto-Leuß-Weg 9 0 0



Demarcation of the closer study Demarcation of the closer study areaarea

Risk-Concept

Damage Analysis

Final remarks

Scales

Background

Valuation Analysis



Different procedures for the Different procedures for the particularparticular damage categoriesdamage categoriesExample: Example: Buildings at risk Buildings at risk Field work: Field work: type of building, number of type of building, number of storeys, age, usestoreys, age, use

GIS: GIS: extract the surface area of each extract the surface area of each building from the ALKbuilding from the ALK

Risk-Concept

Damage Analysis

Final remarks

Scales

Background

Valuation Analysis Valuation: Valuation: through through Valuation Guidelines Valuation Guidelines and Manufacturing Costs 2000 (BMV, 2001).and Manufacturing Costs 2000 (BMV, 2001).



Risk-Concept

Damage Analysis

Final remarks

Scales

Background

Valuation Analysis

Terraced house

Type 2.02 Basement, ground f loor and not developed attic

Standard before 1925 1925 to 1945 1946 to 1959 1960 to 1969 1970 to 1984 1985 to 1999 from 2000

Head house simple 405 - 425 425 - 435 440 - 470 475 - 495 500 - 530 530 - 575 580

Head house medium 435 - 455 460 - 470 470 - 505 510 - 530 535 - 570 570 - 620 620

Middle house simple 400 - 420 420 - 430 435 - 465 465 - 490 495 - 520 525 - 570 570

Middle house medium 430 - 450 455 - 465 465 - 500 500 - 530 530 - 565 565 - 610 615

Costs of the gross surface area in €/m², average height between floors 2,70 m



Example: Example: Inhabitants at risk Inhabitants at risk Determination of addresses Determination of addresses from the field mapping from the field mapping respectively the official land respectively the official land property registerproperty registerQuery of the number of Query of the number of inhabitants from the internal inhabitants from the internal municipality residential registermunicipality residential register

Risk-Concept

Damage Analysis

Final remarks

Scales

Background

Valuation Analysis



Risk-Concept

Damage Analysis

Final remarks

Scales

Background

Valuation Analysis

Register of houses from 15.10.2003

Registry office: Langeoog Municipality: Langeoog Selection: Langeoog, Otto-Leuß-Weg

InhabitantsPostcode Street House number HW NW26465 Otto-Leuß-Weg 1 2 126465 Otto-Leuß-Weg 2 0 226465 Otto-Leuß-Weg 3 5 026465 Otto-Leuß-Weg 4 5 026465 Otto-Leuß-Weg 5 0 426465 Otto-Leuß-Weg 6 2 226465 Otto-Leuß-Weg 7 2 226465 Otto-Leuß-Weg 8 4 126465 Otto-Leuß-Weg 9 0 0


Valuation Analysis - ResultsValuation Analysis - Results

Risk-Concept

Damage Analysis

Final remarks

Scales

Background

Valuation Analysis

Results by heights and damage categories Results by heights and damage categories < 0 m asl 0 - 0.5 m asl 0 .5- 1 m asl 1 - 1.5 m asl 1.5 - 2 m asl

Inhabitants 19 0 0 0 0

Employees 20 0 0 0 6

Tourism capacity (beds)

239 0 0 0 24

Buildings 7,934,000 € 0 € 0 € 0 € 1,306,300 €

Private inventory 356,200 € 0 € 0 € 0 € 2,900 €

Real estate values 400 € 1,500 € 10,700 € 166,400 € 2,793,800 €

Motor vehicles 16,500 € 0 € 0 € 0 € 105,800 €

Traffic areas 0 € 4,200 € 11,400 € 97,100 € 3,886,300 €

Agricultural land 0 € 100 € 600 € 121,900 € 435,800 €

Live stock assets 0 € 0 € 0 € 0 € 0 €

Forest land 0 € 0 € 100 € 1,900 € 39,000 €

Recreational land 0 € 200 € 1,200 € 3,600 € 1,592,500 €

Gross value added

490,000 € 0 € 0 € 0 € 161,000 €

Fixed assets 1,144,300 € 0 € 0 € 0 € 227,200 €

Stock value 33,900 € 0 € 0 € 0 € 6,000 €

Total 9,975,300 € 6,000 € 24,000 € 390,900 € 10,556,600 €

% 1.07 0.00 0.00 0.04 1.13



Risk-Concept

Damage Analysis

Final remarks

Scales

Background

Valuation Analysis

Results by heights (< 5.5m asl) and damage categoriesResults by heights (< 5.5m asl) and damage categories Total %

Inhabitants 2,762

Employees 1,277

Tourism capacity (beds) 7,724

Buildings 492,789,000 € 52.90

Private inventory 60,852,300 € 6.53

Real estate values 230,198,600 € 24.71

Motor vehicles 1,903,300 € 0.20

Traffic areas 14,684,900 € 1.58

Agricultural land 1,356,400 € 0.15

Live stock assets 323,600 € 0.03

Forest land 349,300 € 0.04

Recreational land 4,129,200 € 0.44

Gross value added 36,377,200 € 3.91

Fixed assets 80,663,200 € 8.66

Stock value 7,895,000 € 0.85

Total 931,522,000 € 100.00

% 100.00



Risk-Concept

Damage Analysis

Final remarks

Scales

Background

Valuation Analysis

Spatial distribution of the inhabitants at risk Spatial distribution of the inhabitants at risk



Risk-Concept

Damage Analysis

Final remarks

Scales

Background

Valuation Analysis

Spatial distribution of the damage potential Spatial distribution of the damage potential



Risk-Concept

Damage Analysis

Final remarks

Scales

Background

Valuation Analysis

Comparison of the results with the study Comparison of the results with the study areas in MERKareas in MERK

859 Euro

0

100

200

300

400

Kie

l

Ban

nesd

orf

Lan

dki

rch

en

Wes

tfeh

mar

n

Sch

arbe

utz

Tim

men

dor

fer

Str

and

Kai

ser-

Wilh

elm

Ko

og

St.

Pet

er-

Ord

ing

Lan

geo

og

Euro/m²

Damage potential /m²


Damage Estimation - MethodologyDamage Estimation - Methodology

A methodology for a damage A methodology for a damage estimation was developed in the estimation was developed in the MERK-projectMERK-projectFirst of all the flooding process First of all the flooding process and different dike breaching and different dike breaching scenarios have to be modeledscenarios have to be modeledComputation of the flood depths Computation of the flood depths and flood duration within the and flood duration within the investigation areainvestigation area

Risk-Concept

Valuation Analysis

Final remarks

Scales

Background

Damage Analysis

Szenarien Kaiser-Wilhelm-Koog

0,00

1,00

2,00

3,00

4,00

5,00

6,00

7,00

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

Zeit in h

Wa

ss

ers

tan

d in

m ü

.NN Sturmflutscheitel

Wasserstand / KWK-I

Wasserstand / KWK-II


Computation of the damage Computation of the damage expectationexpectation with depth-damage-with depth-damage-functions for different damage functions for different damage categoriescategoriesFunctions were developed with Functions were developed with an expert questioning an expert questioning Example: private inventoryExample: private inventoryRisk-Concept

Valuation Analysis

Final remarks

Scales

Background

Damage Analysis



Risk-Concept

Valuation Analysis

Final remarks

Scales

Background

Damage Analysis

Depth-damage-function for private inventory

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 0,2 0,4 0,6 0,8 1 1,2 1,4 1,6 1,8 2 2,2 2,4

flooding heights (m)

dam

ages

(%

)

Upper floor

Cellar6*68 xy

xy *60



Final remarksFinal remarksBoth the valuation analysis and Both the valuation analysis and the damage estimation still the damage estimation still showing methodical weaknessesshowing methodical weaknesses

In the EU-Project FLOODsite In the EU-Project FLOODsite these deficits are supposed to be these deficits are supposed to be reducedreduced

Standardization of risk analysisStandardization of risk analysisRisk-Concept

Valuation Analysis

Damage Analysis

Scales

Background

Final remarks


Thank you for Thank you for your attention!your attention!


Further information:Further information:

www.kuestengeographie.dewww.kuestengeographie.de

Documents

Dr. Stefan Reese - Dr. Hans-Jörg Markau Department of Geography - University Kiel 12./13. May 2004 Microscale valuation analysis for the Langeoog island