Dr. Paul H. Kohrs WSDA Assistant State Veterinarian WASEMA
Conference September 26, 2012
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Go for the numbers What contributes to the cost of disease Some
common diseases of concern Additional thoughts on food supply
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Agricultural Production One of the most diverse and productive
growing regions in the world 12% of states economy 39,000 farms 300
crops $9.5 billion in production value 82,000 people employed in
crop and livestock production
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Foreign Exports Deep-water ports and proximity to Asian markets
$13 billion in food and agricultural products exported through
Washington ports in 2010 3 rd largest in U.S. Grain & Fruit #1
& #2 in export value 1/3 of meat products processed leave the
state
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Specialty Crops Washington produces a significant portion to
the national average Production as a percent of national total
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Livestock & Poultry Inventory 90 million beef cattle 10
million dairy cattle 10 million sheep 60 million hogs 8 billion
poultry 20% of commodities are exported 140 Billion in
exports-860,000 jobs If we get FMD - We Lose Our: Export markets!!
Domestic markets & loss of consumer confidence Valuable
business infrastructure 6
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2/3rds of the world has FMD FMD is feared internationally
because of high mortality FMD is easily diagnosed on clinical signs
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If introduced into the US it would be quickly stamped out
Direct costs in an outbreak (eradication and indemnities) would be
greater than indirect cost (loss trade and consumer fears) FMD is
zoonotic 8
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Estimates are that for each hour that it remains undetected it
costs $10,000,000 Estimates from USDA indicate that a FMD outbreak
would cost $30-60 billion 80 reported suicides from UK 2001
outbreak 9
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10 Day 1 2 3456 78910111213141516 17 181920 21 22 23 30 Day 5
Disease First Detected Potential Impact: Even if a national Stop
Movement of all susceptible animals is ordered on Day 8, by the
time the disease is eradicated the nation would still lose 23.6
million animals! States Infected: 5 12 15 19 23 27 30 33 35373839
40 After a simulated terrorist attack at 5 locations:
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11 ONE DAY (9/05) SALE TRACE IN TRACE OUT 2,232 head handled
211 sellers (208 WA, 7 OR, 1 ID) 25 out of state buyers (1 CA, 9
OR, 14 ID, 1 UT) Markets In State Sellers In State Buyers Out Of
State Sellers Out Of State Buyers SALE SITE
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13 SALE SITE 1,993 head handled 158 sellers (135 WA, 23 ID) 115
buyers (WA, ID, CA, OR, MT, WY, IA)
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Yes 140 Billion in trade 17% of our GDP Loss of 860,000
agricultural jobs Psychological impact of losses Disposal of 24
million animals 14
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RNA virus vs DNA Single strand of genetic material (RNA) Double
helix strands of genetic material (DNA) Avian Influenza (AI) 16
different Hs; named H1 H16 9 different Ns; named N1 N9 144
combinations possible (e.g., Asian H5N1) AI subtypes of concern H5
or H7 16
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Genetic Changes Drift: minor mutations Seasonal flu May or may
not affect the ability to cause disease Shift: major changes
Jumping species Re-assortment 17
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Swine the Mixing Vessel Multiple human and avian gene
introductions Since 1998, unsettled genome results in lots of
replication / virus variances 18
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Feb 2004 High Path AI detected in B.C. (H7N3) ~30 infected
premises Less than mile from U.S. border Apr 2004 Joint USDA/WSDA
surveillance teams assembled and dispatched to area
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Surveillance continued until the outbreak was controlled in
Canada Concluded June 2004 ~10,500 premises contacted 650 of those
had poultry 480 of the 650 allowed testing All tests negative Total
cost of operation $765,000
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21 UNITED STATES (Whatcom County, WA) CANADA (British Columbia)
HPAI INFECTED FLOCK HPAI INFECTED FLOCK
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Direct costs 300 million Depopulation Disposal Indemnity
C&D Additional costs Ripple effect estimated at 3X direct costs
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2009 - H1N1 Swine flu estimated to cost $1.1 billion dollars in
lost revenue (2009) Previous years revenue was already down from
recession for a total 2 year loss of $5 billion dollars No
scientific reason only public perception and media labeling 2012 -
H3N2 costs not yet tallied Again public perception is key to
maintaining marketability of pork products Better messaging
lessened overall impact 23
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B.C. outbreak in 2004 300 million in control cost Most
officials peg the cost to the economy at 3X that (ripple effect)
Some producers out of the business 24
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TB is a bacterial disease of cattle that can infect humans,
other domestic animals and some wildlife There are three ways
humans can get TB: Breathing air after an infected animal coughs or
sneezes very close by Drinking unpasteurized milk from an infected
cow or eating raw or undercooked meat from an infected animal
Handling infected meat in the dressing and processing of animal
carcasses Eradication program in place since 1917 TB has reemerged
since 1998 in U.S. 25
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IF we would discover an infected TB herd Huge amounts of time
and $$$ spent in testing of infected herd and determining status of
trace-ins for the source of the infection Trace-outs to determine
where it might have been spread to Must prove to USDA that we can
accomplish the above or we would lose our free status 26
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27 The cost of testing and movement restrictions Loss of Free
Status for TB or Brucellosis cost 10 cents per pound ($50 on
500-pound calf) $8 to $10 per head (each time cattle are tested) $5
to $55 million (in added costs to state) $6.4 million (added
producer testing costs) Indemnity value may be lower than animal is
worth Community loss of income for Community based small farms and
markets Community business and their revenue Community confidence
in uncertain future
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WA has held TB free-status since 1988 Close calls: Eastern
Washington feedlot, May 2008 Two Canadian origin cattle - No
intermingling with native cattle Yakima, 2008 Male from Mexico
became ill while visiting-diagnosed with TB Raw dairy products from
Mexico, eventually recovered No family members or animals infected
Sunnyside, Feb 2012 2009, California dairy herd (975 cows)
relocates to Washington 2012, Notified entire herd was potentially
exposed to TB Herd now is 1200 head - Large-scale tracing and
testing 28
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Herd Test Results 33 responders All tests were negative All
traces confirmed no cattle comingled with resident cattle 29
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Feb 2012 Received notice of a trace from California of an
entire herd (975 cows) that potentially was exposed to M. bovis
arrived in 2009 March 2012, herd population is now 1200 Tested in
March 2012 Nearly 800 head had been culled in the 09-12 time period
all needed to be confirmed as slaughter or in slaughter channels
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Depopulation Simply not feasible anymore State and federal
resources shrinking No more government deep pockets $5-55 million
dollars of government money for indemnity USDA has changed their
approach states and producers will now bear more of the cost
Depopulation is a less likely option 33
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Q fever is a rare bacterial infection caused by Coxiella
burnetii Q fever spills over to people, from infected animals/
environment, through inhalation Q fever is widespread in the
environment CDC found Q fever bacteria in environmental samples
from post offices, stores, schools, farms, dairies and fairgrounds
Some areas had up to 50% positive samples
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Q fever bacteria can cause a sudden onset of: High fever
Headache and flu-like symptoms that usually last for at least a
week Rarely (1-5%) of cases develop serious cardiac problems
Probably under reported due to similarities of other health related
and seasonal symptoms 36
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Discovered in North Central Washington Producer wanted to know
the source of goat miscarrages Q fever diagnosed by local Vet,
confirmed by WSU Producer assisted with tracing herd sales in WA
and MT Goats were tested from 13 farms in 7 counties: Adams,
Chelan, Clark, Franklin, Grant, Pend Oreille & Thurston 850
samples collected by WSDA, USDA and CDC 61 human samples from
producers & agriculture personnel
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Goats were tested from 13 farms in 7 counties: Adams, Chelan,
Clark, Franklin, Grant, Pend Oreille & Thurston 850 samples
collected by WSDA, USDA and CDC 61 human samples - Producers and
Agriculture personnel
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Human 11 / 61 (18%) had positive serum samples 7 / 11 (64%)
people were sick Goats Whole blood samples were PCR negative Only
8% of 326 goats were ELISA positive Only 10% of 108 fecal swabs
(males) were PCR positive 31% of 312 vaginal swabs were PCR
positive All 19 positive milk samples were from one non-milk
producing farm ~ $50,000 - nearly bankrupted producer due to lost
sales
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How much will breakfast at McDonalds cost when gestation stalls
are eliminated and the eggs are all free range? UK has gone to
non-cage eggs and there are severe egg shortages some locations not
available at all Is food produced in these systems really better
for us? Should others be allowed to make our food choices for us by
simple economics? 41
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Growing movement promotes advantages of going raw CDC study
states that raw milk saw a significant increase in dairy related
food illnesses 75% (55/73)of the non pasteurized product outbreaks
occurred states where raw milk was legal Is the increased risk
worth the benefits? 42
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Antibiotic usage the alleged relationship of antibiotic
resistance to judicious animal use Eliminate growth promoting use
of antibiotics Essentially would put antibiotics under veterinary
script costs for food Other sources of resistance? How much will
food costs increase if antibiotic use disappear? 43
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We get FMD and notify the OIE as required and we lose: Our
export markets!! Our domestic markets due to loss of consumer
confidence Valuable business infrastructure 45
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Determine the nature of the outbreak Initiate an appropriate
measured response Eliminate the disease Ensure recovery in the form
of resumption of business and trade 46
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90 million beef cattle 10 million dairy cattle 10 million sheep
60 million hogs 8 billion poultry Americans pay about 11.5 cents
for food for every dollar earned - the lowest in the world 47
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Movement control Surveillance Euthanasia and Disposal Cleaning
and Disinfection Emotional Tourism LOST TRADE 48
2012 H3N2 costs not yet tallied Again public perception is key
to maintaining marketability of pork products Better messaging
lessened overall impact 50
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Yakima area-2008 Older male from Mexico became ill while
visiting-diagnosed with M.bovis Raw dairy products from Mexico
Eventually recovered Did not infect family members or animals
Tested small herd on premise 3 times. 52
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April 2011 Local Slaughter facility received a shipment of
slaughter cows from Canada On cow was TB compatible confirmed with
M. bovis No contact with breeding animals-returned trace to Canada
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April 2010 Washingtons private veterinarians are required to
take certification course to improve test rates Veterinarians are
doing an improved job of testing for the assurance of our domestic
and international trading partners 54
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Testing costs ~ $8-$15 dollars per time Labor costs Injured
animals Extra feed costs Lost milk-disrupted schedules Present
tests require 2 trips through a chute Markedly decrease cattle
marketability $10-15/CWT decrease in price due to increased risk
and testing costs-often the profit on a calf for the year. 56
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Washington State Department of Agriculture Grant County Health
District
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CDC found Q fever bacteria in environmental samples from post
offices, stores, schools, farms, dairies and fairgrounds Rocky
Mountains- 45% South Central 36% Upper Midwest 25% Deep South 16%
West Coast 14% East Coast 6% Some areas had up to 50% positive
samples
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Reportedly cost the index farm ~ $50,000 and nearly bankrupted
them due to lost sales Washington State has a raw milk Q-fever
testing requirement Annual TB, Brucellosis and Q-fever test
requirement Attempt to identify infected herds and mitigate the
risk for illness Estimate annual cost of $50/animal 59
