Dr. Martin Sherman Singapore, Septembetr 2006

Asia III

The Middle East Conflict :The Middle East Conflict :                                                Separating Fact from FantasySeparating Fact from Fantasy

The Christian population declined 29 The Christian population declined 29 percent in the West Bank and 20 percent percent in the West Bank and 20 percent in the Gaza Strip from 1997 to 2002. By in the Gaza Strip from 1997 to 2002. By contrast, in the period 1995–2003, contrast, in the period 1995–2003, Israel’s Arab Christian population grew Israel’s Arab Christian population grew 14.1 percent14.1 percent

(CAMERA, December 24, 2004).

"Do whatever you want, you and your family in your home, worship whatever you want, but there has not been, or will be a church [in the kingdom].”

Prince Sultan of Saudi Arabia

Bethlehem Christians under Palestinian Authority

►►The Christian population was reduced from a 60% The Christian population was reduced from a 60% majority in 1990 to a 20% minority in 2001 (23,000)majority in 1990 to a 20% minority in 2001 (23,000)

► ► 1,640 Christians fled Bethlehem between Oct. 2000 1,640 Christians fled Bethlehem between Oct. 2000 and Nov. 2001and Nov. 2001

► ► More Beit Jala Christians reside in Belize (Central More Beit Jala Christians reside in Belize (Central America) than are left in Beit Jalah itself.America) than are left in Beit Jalah itself.

► ► Before 1995, Bethlehem had a majority-Christian Before 1995, Bethlehem had a majority-Christian municipal council. After the PA take- over, Arafat municipal council. After the PA take- over, Arafat replaced the municipal council with a predominately replaced the municipal council with a predominately Muslim council. 51.2% of Christians in Beit Sahour are Muslim council. 51.2% of Christians in Beit Sahour are considering emigrationconsidering emigration

► ► 45% of Palestinian Christians in Bethlehem expressed 45% of Palestinian Christians in Bethlehem expressed growing fears of tensions between Christians and growing fears of tensions between Christians and MuslimsMuslims

► ► Mosques in Bethlehem: 1970 - 5 mosques; 2004 - 72 Mosques in Bethlehem: 1970 - 5 mosques; 2004 - 72

mosquesmosques

?The

Authenticityof the

Palestinian Claims ?

The Legitimacy of

Palestinian Narrative ?

The Relevance of a Palestinian

State ?The

Feasibility of Alternative Solutions

?The Authenticity

of the Palestinian Claims

King Hussein, Amman, Nov. 1987

The appearance of the Palestinian national personality comes as an answer to Israel’s claim that Palestine is Jewish.

Farouk Kadoumi, head of the PLO Political Department, Newsweek, on 14th March 1977.

Zuheir Muhsin, formerly the head of the PLO's Military Department and member of its Executive Council Dutch daily Trouw March 31, 1977

Yes, the existence of a separate Palestinian identity serves only tactical purposes. The founding of a Palestinian state is a new tool in the continuing battle against Israel.

There are no differences between Jordanians, Palestinians, Syrians and Lebanese. We are all part of one nation. It is only for political reasons that we carefully underline our Palestinian identity, because it is in the interest of the Arabs to encourage a separate Palestinian identity.

… Jordanians and Palestinians are considered by the PLO as one people.

Article 12: The Palestinian people believe in Arab unity. In order to contribute their share toward the attainment of that belief, however, they must, at at the present stage of their strugglethe present stage of their struggle, safeguard their Palestinian identity and develop their consciousness of that identity, and oppose any plan that may dissolve or impair it.

Article 1. Palestine, the homeland of the Palestinian Arab people, is an inseparable part of the greater Arab homeland, and the Palestinian people are Palestinian people are a part of the Arab Nation.a part of the Arab Nation.

The Palestinian National CharterThe Palestinian National Charter

?

The Legitimacy of Palestinian Narrative

Two Opposing Hypotheses to Account for the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict

The True Palestinian Aspiration is to EstablishEstablish a State for ThemselvesThemselves

The True Palestinian Aspiration is to DismantleDismantle a State for Jews

The Fuel of the Conflict is the AbsenceAbsence of PalestinianPalestinian Self Determination

The Fuel of the Conflict is the ExistenceExistence of JewishJewish Self Determination

Conventional Wisdom:

Alternative Wisdom:

Stubborn insistence on the "right of return“,"right of return“, which implies placing hundreds of thousands of Palestinians ( and possibly even more), now living in Arab countries, under Israeli jurisdiction, a position hardly consistent with an alleged desire to be free of oppressive Israeli control... or with an equitable two-state solution.

Rejection not only of the far-reaching generosity of the Barak Barak proposalproposal, but also the violent manner in which they rejected it. Although the proposals did include a proviso insisting on "end of "end of conflict“conflict“, they were unprecedented in the concessions offered towards making a Palestinian state a feasible prospect. Palestinian response is explic-able only if "end of conflict" is an unacceptable concept for them.

Palestinians refrained from demands to exert their national sovereignty in the pre-1967 "West Bank" and Gazasovereignty in the pre-1967 "West Bank" and Gaza - as evidenced by the text of their original National Charter. Accept rule by a Hashemite Bedouin despot, who represents the minority in the land.

Rejection of a "two state solution", as evidenced in their rhetoric and rhetoric and symbolismsymbolism in which they portray the whole the Land of Israel, from the Mediterranean Sea to the Jordan River, as part of Arab Palestine.

Rejection of every territorial proposalevery territorial proposal, which would have allowed them to create a state of their own - from the 1947 partition plan to Barak's offer at Camp David in 2000

Rejection of every territorial proposalevery territorial proposal, which would have allowed them to create a state of their own - from the 1947 partition plan to Barak's offer at Camp David in 2000

Israel & the Moslem WorldIsrael & the Moslem World

Israel & the Arab WorldIsrael & the Arab World

Rejection of a "two state solution", as evidenced in their rhetoric and rhetoric and symbolismsymbolism in which they portray the whole the Land of Israel, from the Mediterranean Sea to the Jordan River, as part of Arab Palestine.

Palestinian Symbolis

m

Palestinian Symbolis

m

Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine

Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine - GCPalestine Liberation Organization (PLO)

Palestinian Symbolis

m

Palestinian Symbolis

m

Hamas Palestinian Islamic Jihad

Some Principles of the Hamas CharterSome Principles of the Hamas Charter

► ► Israel will exist and will continue to exist until Israel will exist and will continue to exist until Islam will obliterate it, just as it obliterated others Islam will obliterate it, just as it obliterated others before it. before it.

► ► The Islamic Resistance Movement believes that The Islamic Resistance Movement believes that the land of Palestine is an Islamic Waqf the land of Palestine is an Islamic Waqf consecrated for future Moslem generations until consecrated for future Moslem generations until Judgment Day. It, or any part of it, should not be Judgment Day. It, or any part of it, should not be squandered: it, or any part of it, should not be squandered: it, or any part of it, should not be given upgiven up. .

► ► There is no solution for the Palestinian question There is no solution for the Palestinian question except through Jihad. Initiatives, proposals and except through Jihad. Initiatives, proposals and international conferences are all a waste of time international conferences are all a waste of time and vain endeavorsand vain endeavors.

Palestinian Rhetoric

Palestinian Rhetoric

Fateh: The Movement's Essential PrinciplesFateh: The Movement's Essential Principleshttp://www.fateh.net/e_public/constitution.htm

Article (6Article (6) UN projects, accords and resolutions, or those of any individual which undermine the Palestinian people's right in their homeland are illegal and rejectedArticle (7)Article (7) The Zionist Movement is racial, colonial and aggressive in ideology, goals, organization and method. Article (8)Article (8) The Israeli existence in Palestine is a Zionist invasion with a colonial expansive base, and it is a natural ally to colonialism and international imperialism

GoalsArticle (12Article (12) Complete liberation of Palestine, and eradication of Zionist economic, political, military and cultural existence.  Article (13)Article (13) Establishing an independent democratic state with complete sovereignty on all Palestinian lands, and Jerusalem is its capital city, and protecting the citizens' legal and equal rights without any racial or religious discrimination.  

MethodsArticle (19Article (19)) Armed struggle is a strategy and not a tactic, and the Palestinian Arab People's armed revolution is a decisive factor in the liberation fight and in uprooting the Zionist existence, and this struggle will not cease unless the Zionist state is demolished and Palestine is completely liberated

Palestinian Rhetoric

(cont)

Palestinian Rhetoric

(cont)

FatehArticle (7) The Zionist Movement is racial, colonial The Zionist Movement is racial, colonial and aggressive in ideology, goals, organization and and aggressive in ideology, goals, organization and method. method. Article (8) The Israeli existence in Palestine is a The Israeli existence in Palestine is a Zionist invasion with a colonial expansive base, and Zionist invasion with a colonial expansive base, and it is a natural ally to colonialism and international it is a natural ally to colonialism and international imperialismimperialism

HamasThe Zionist invasion is a mischievous one. It does The Zionist invasion is a mischievous one. It does not hesitate to take any road, or to pursue all not hesitate to take any road, or to pursue all despicable and repulsive means to fulfill its despicable and repulsive means to fulfill its desires.desires.

The Nature of Zionism and the The Nature of Zionism and the Existence of IsraelExistence of Israel

FatehFatehArticle (6) UN projects, accords and resolutions, or those of UN projects, accords and resolutions, or those of any individual which undermine the Palestinian people's any individual which undermine the Palestinian people's right in their homeland are illegal and rejectedright in their homeland are illegal and rejectedArticle (22) Opposing any political solution offered as an Opposing any political solution offered as an alternative to demolishing the Zionist occupation in alternative to demolishing the Zionist occupation in Palestine, as well as any project intended to liquidate the Palestine, as well as any project intended to liquidate the Palestinian case or impose any international mandate on its Palestinian case or impose any international mandate on its people. people.

HamasHamas[Peace] initiatives, the so-called peaceful solutions, and the [Peace] initiatives, the so-called peaceful solutions, and the international conferences to resolve the Palestinian international conferences to resolve the Palestinian problem, are all contrary to the beliefs of the Islamic problem, are all contrary to the beliefs of the Islamic Resistance Movement….The initiatives, proposals and Resistance Movement….The initiatives, proposals and International Conferences are but a waste of time, an International Conferences are but a waste of time, an exercise in futility…Those conferences are no more than a exercise in futility…Those conferences are no more than a means to appoint the nonbelievers as arbitrators in the means to appoint the nonbelievers as arbitrators in the lands of Islam. Since when did the Unbelievers do justice to lands of Islam. Since when did the Unbelievers do justice to the Believers?the Believers?

Attitudes to Peace and Efforts of Attitudes to Peace and Efforts of International Mediation International Mediation

HamasIsrael will exist and will continue to exist until Islam Israel will exist and will continue to exist until Islam will obliterate it, just as it obliterated others before will obliterate it, just as it obliterated others before it…There is no solution for the Palestinian question it…There is no solution for the Palestinian question except through Jihadexcept through Jihad

Fateh -Methods-

Article (19) Armed struggle is a strategy and not a Armed struggle is a strategy and not a tactic, and the Palestinian Arab People's armed tactic, and the Palestinian Arab People's armed revolution is a decisive factor in the liberation fight revolution is a decisive factor in the liberation fight and in uprooting the Zionist existence, and this and in uprooting the Zionist existence, and this struggle will not cease unless the Zionist state is struggle will not cease unless the Zionist state is demolished and Palestine is completely liberateddemolished and Palestine is completely liberated

The Rejection of Any Non-Violent The Rejection of Any Non-Violent Resolution of the ConflictResolution of the Conflict

FatehFateh

- Goals - - Goals - Article (12)Article (12) Complete liberation of Palestine, and Complete liberation of Palestine, and eradication of Zionist economic, political, military eradication of Zionist economic, political, military and cultural existenceand cultural existence

HamasHamasThe Islamic Resistance Movement believes that the The Islamic Resistance Movement believes that the land of Palestine is an Islamic Waqf consecrated for land of Palestine is an Islamic Waqf consecrated for future Moslem generations until Judgment Day. It, future Moslem generations until Judgment Day. It, or any part of it, should not be squandered: it, or or any part of it, should not be squandered: it, or any part of it, should not be given up… any part of it, should not be given up… Israel, by virtue of its being Jewish and of Israel, by virtue of its being Jewish and of having a Jewish population, defies Islam having a Jewish population, defies Islam and the Muslims.and the Muslims.

The Totality of the Repudiation of Israel

Palestinians refrained from demands to exert their national sovereignty in the pre-1967 "West sovereignty in the pre-1967 "West Bank" and GazaBank" and Gaza - as evidenced by the text of their original National Charter. Accept rule by a Hashemite Bedouin despot, who represents the minority in the land.

Article 24: This Organization does not exercise any territorial sovereignty over the West Bank in the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan, on the Gaza Strip or in the Himmah Area…

Article 16: The liberation of Palestine…is a defensive act necessitated by the demands of self-defense as stated in the Charter of the United Nations. For that, the people of Palestine… look forward to…restoring the legitimate situation to Palestine, establishing peace and security in its territory, and enabling its people to exercise national sovereignty...

THE PALESTINIAN NATIONAL CHARTERAdopted in 1964 by the 1st Palestinian Conference

Rejection not only of the far-reaching generosity of the Barak Barak proposalproposal, but also the violent manner in which they rejected it. Although the proposals did include a proviso insisting on "end of "end of conflict“conflict“, they were unprecedented in the concessions offered towards making a Palestinian state a feasible prospect. Palestinian response is explicable only if "end of conflict" is an unacceptable concept for them.

Stubborn insistence on the "right "right of return“,of return“, which implies placing hundreds of thousands of Palestinians ( and possibly even more), now living in Arab countries, under Israeli jurisdiction, a position hardly consistent with an alleged desire to be free of oppressive Israeli control... or with an equitable two-state solution.

?The Relevance of a Palestinian State

But this was a state-forming process entirely different in it political origins, in its political rationale and in its duration. It began in the 1990s and ended in the 1990s. It involved the disintegration of existing sovereign countries (or at least ostensibly sovereign countries) rather than disenfranchised people extricating themselves from alien control which emanated from distant centers of power in foreign capitals.

It peaked in the late 50s and early 60s andIt peaked in the late 50s and early 60s and petered out in the petered out in the late 70s with virtually no political entities being granted late 70s with virtually no political entities being granted independence from non-indigenous control after the mid-80s. independence from non-indigenous control after the mid-80s. The only significant subsequent additions of states to the The only significant subsequent additions of states to the international system, which had by that time to a large international system, which had by that time to a large degree stabilized, were those that emerged from the degree stabilized, were those that emerged from the dissolution of the Communist bloc in Eastern and Central dissolution of the Communist bloc in Eastern and Central Europe, the Balkans and Central Asia. Europe, the Balkans and Central Asia.

The wave which bore the kind of claims for national self determination invoked by the Palestinians began in the forties with the end of WW-II, the breakup of empire and the casting off of colonial rule in far flung imperial territories with little generic affinity to the ruling European power in terms of its social, cultural or historical roots.

Highly Supportive International Media Highly Supportive International Media CoverageCoverage

Almost Universal International Endorsement Almost Universal International Endorsement of Their Claimsof Their Claims

DecadesDecades of Super Power Patronage of Super Power Patronage

Highly Accommodative Israeli Regimes Highly Accommodative Israeli Regimes which not only which not only AcknowledgedAcknowledged but but IdentifiedIdentified with their Claims with their Claims

The Palestinians have enjoyed:The Palestinians have enjoyed:

As a National Entity --the Palestinians have “Failed the Test of History”

As a Political Goal – a Palestinian State has become an Historical Anachronism and as such Should be Removed for the International Agenda

Over Half a Century of Proven Palestinian Political Incompetence and Administrative Failure -- Despite Highly Favorable Conditions Imply:

The de-legitimization of the Palestinian narrative and the dismissal of Palestinian demands for statehood will not obviate the practical plight of hundreds of thousand essentially disenfranchised Palestinian families resident in Samaria, Judea and Gaza. This is a predicament that still must be addressed and – dissipated.

"Atomization" of the issue by making the offer of compensation and relocation directly to the heads of families and not through any Palestinian organizational structure.

The major thrust of the effort should be directed along two major channels:

Generous monetary compensation to effect the relocation and rehabilitation of the Palestinian residents of Samaria, Judea and Gaza elsewhere.

?The Feasibility of

Alternative Solutions

The affordability of the economic cost of the The affordability of the economic cost of the proposal relative to other available options.proposal relative to other available options.

The feasibility of such a proposal should be analyzed on three separate levels:

The acceptability of the proposal to the The acceptability of the proposal to the prospective host countries that would become prospective host countries that would become future domiciles for the relocated Palestinians.future domiciles for the relocated Palestinians.

The acceptability of the proposal of relocation The acceptability of the proposal of relocation finance to the prospective recipients.finance to the prospective recipients.

The Feasibility of Two State Solutions based on :-

► ► Establishment of a Self Ruling Establishment of a Self Ruling Palestinian Entity in the Palestinian Entity in the Evacuated TerritoriesEvacuated Territories

Feasibility of Long Term Israeli Survivabilty Feasibility of Long Term Israeli Survivabilty within the Context of a Palestinian Statewithin the Context of a Palestinian State

► ► Significant Israeli WithdrawalSignificant Israeli Withdrawal

Another Issue of Feasibility that Should Be Addressed:

Feasibility of Long Term Israeli Feasibility of Long Term Israeli Survivabilty within the Context of Survivabilty within the Context of

a Palestinian Statea Palestinian State

1976 Green Line

Jordan Valley

Ben Gurion Airport

Tel Aviv Area

Water Line

● Major Sea Ports and Naval Bases

● Principal Power Stations

● Sweet Water System

● Crucial Communications and Transport Systems

● Major Air Fields - Civilian and Military

● Vital Centers of Military Command & Control, and Centers of Civilian Government

● 80% of the Population and 80% of the Economic Activity

Eugene V. Rostow, “The Peace-Making Process and UN Eugene V. Rostow, “The Peace-Making Process and UN Resolutions 242 and 338” in Resolutions 242 and 338” in Israel’s Legitimacy in Law and Israel’s Legitimacy in Law and HistoryHistory, New York: Center for Near East Policy Research, 1993 , New York: Center for Near East Policy Research, 1993

I do not know if the Joint Chiefs of Staff would draw a different map today, but I doubt is very much.

* See Appendix D. Editor

The study advised …that the security of Israel required Israel to receive parts of the territory of the West Bank as essential to its defense. In fact, all the studies of the Israeli security problem reached the same conclusion – from the security point of view, Israel must hold the high points in the West Bank and areas along the Jordan River.

What these two senators [Byrd and Dole] assume is that somehow or other, some Arab state has a right to claim that anything beyond the Green Line is Arab territory under 242 and 338. This is exactly contrary to its provisions and its purpose…. [T]here is an important document which has now been released. It is useful in interpreting Resolution 242 because it reveals part of what the U.S. government had in mind in pushing the resolution through. It is a map of the area, showing the places of particular security concern to Israel. The map was prepared by the Joint Chiefs of Staff, who made a study of Israeli security …to advise the President on what the security concerns of Israel were.*

Head of Military Intelligence: The Arabs Demand 60 Percent of

Israel’s Water

)b )Width – No “Strategic Depth”

)a )Length – Extent of Frontiers

)c )Height – Topographical Inferiority

)d )Depth – Hydrological Dependency

Territorial ConcessionsTerritorial Concessions= =

Multi Dimensional ThreatMulti Dimensional Threat !! !!

The acceptability of the proposal of The acceptability of the proposal of relocation finance to the relocation finance to the prospective recipients.prospective recipients.

http://www.globes.co.il/DocsEn/did=704221.htm

Per capita income fell by over 46%, compared Per capita income fell by over 46%, compared with 1999, and the poverty rate, defined as less with 1999, and the poverty rate, defined as less than $2.10 a day in income, was almost 60% of than $2.10 a day in income, was almost 60% of the population, compared with 21% on the eve of the population, compared with 21% on the eve of the the intifadaintifada. The Palestinian population grew by . The Palestinian population grew by 13% between 1999 and 2002. 13% between 1999 and 2002.

The World Bank reports that unemployment The World Bank reports that unemployment amounted to 37% of the labor force at the end of amounted to 37% of the labor force at the end of 2002. The stricter standards utilized by the 2002. The stricter standards utilized by the International Labor Organization (ILO), which only International Labor Organization (ILO), which only include people actively seeking work in the labor include people actively seeking work in the labor force, show 27% unemployment at the end of force, show 27% unemployment at the end of 2002. 2002.

The Palestinian GNP was 38% lower in 2002 than The Palestinian GNP was 38% lower in 2002 than in 1999, according to a World Bank report on the in 1999, according to a World Bank report on the impact of the first 27 months of the impact of the first 27 months of the intifadaintifada. .

190127790Nigeria

427285351Kenya

338225443Pakistan

334223448India

250167600Indonesia

71472110Tunisia

130871150Morocco

112751340Egypt

92611630Jordan

86571770OPEC

84561790North Africa

45303340South America

78511980Central America

94641600Palestinian Administ’d Territories*

26175830World Average

Years of GNP per capita per $150,000

Years of GNP per capita per $100,000

GNP per capita

Country/Grouping

Source: US Department of State – WMEAT 1999-2000. * USAID - 2000

Relocation and Rehabilitation as Individual Rational Choice

The individual The individual Palestinian Palestinian would have the would have the following following choiceschoices::

Continue life under Continue life under the Rigors of the Rigors of Israeli ControlIsraeli Control

Life under and even Life under and even more repressive and more repressive and

regressive regressive Palestinian RegimePalestinian Regime

Accept the Accept the Relocation Grant Relocation Grant and build a new life and build a new life of himself and his of himself and his familyfamily

Accept the Accept the Relocation Grant Relocation Grant

and build a new life and build a new life of himself and his of himself and his

familyfamily

In answer to the question "What would In answer to the question "What would induce you to emigrate permanently, induce you to emigrate permanently, only only 15%15% stated that stated that nothingnothing would induce them. would induce them. Over Over 70% 70% specified one or more material specified one or more material factors that would induce to emigrate factors that would induce to emigrate permanently them such as substantial permanently them such as substantial financial compensation; guarantee of a financial compensation; guarantee of a good job abroad; a good level of housing good job abroad; a good level of housing

42% state that they have considered 42% state that they have considered emigrating permanently to some other emigrating permanently to some other country country

Palestinian SurveyPalestinian Survey

Suvey was conducted by face to face interviews on 15-21 Nov, 2004 during various hours of the , by means of a structured questionnaire in Arabic, among a random sample of 528 interviewees, representative of the adult population in Judea and Samaria)17yrs of age and above). Statistical margin of error 4.5%. The sampling and the interviews were conducted by pollsters of THE PALESTINIAN CENTER FOR PUBLIC OPINION. The questionnaire design , the data input, the statistical processing, the formulation of final report were done by Maagar Mohot Ltd. The survey was conducted by Maagar Mohot Interdisciplinary Research and Consulting Institute Ltd, under the supervision of Prof, Yitzhak Katz, Prof. Baruch Mevorach – Scientific Director, and Amir Horkin, Research Manager ,in collaboration with THE PALESTINIAN CENTER FOR PUBLIC OPINION under the management of Dr.Nabil Kokli

The acceptability of the proposal to the The acceptability of the proposal to the prospective host countries that would prospective host countries that would

become future domiciles for the relocated become future domiciles for the relocated Palestinians.Palestinians.

Thus should rationality prevail, the global community has the rare opportunity of generating a genuine win-win situationwin-win situation for all concerned - except for the failed fraudulent and fanatic Palestinian leadership.

Indeed, for every 100every 100 Palestinian families received, the host country could count on the influx of around 10-15 million dollars10-15 million dollars directly into the private sector. Absorbing 2500 new Palestinian2500 new Palestinian family unitsfamily units could mean the injection of quarter billionquarter billion dollardollars or more, into the local economy of countries direly in need of such funds.

For the Palestinians arriving at their gates will not be not be impoverished refugeesimpoverished refugees, but relatively prosperous individuals with saving the equivalent of decades of GNP per capita in their pockets. This will confer on them, if not the status of substantial, investors at least that of potential small entrepreneurs.

For the prospective host countries – either dominantly Arab or Moslem countries; or countries with significant Arab/Moslem communities in Africa and Asia – the proposal entails significant economic potential

The affordability of the economic cost of the proposal relative to other

available options.

Bank of Israel sources gave Bank of Israel sources gave almost the same estimates almost the same estimates and projected a similar loss and projected a similar loss [the future] (Globes).[the future] (Globes).

The first two years of the The first two years of the Palestinian violence cost the Palestinian violence cost the Israeli economy Israeli economy approximately US$ 8 billion. approximately US$ 8 billion. (Haaretz)(Haaretz)

The total outlay required for the relocation of the The total outlay required for the relocation of the refugee population will be between US $ 35 – 52.5 refugee population will be between US $ 35 – 52.5 billion (depending on whether the relocation grant billion (depending on whether the relocation grant was US$ 100,000 or 150,000). was US$ 100,000 or 150,000).

Extending the relocation to the entire Palestinian Extending the relocation to the entire Palestinian population would effectively entail doubling the population would effectively entail doubling the required outlay to US $ 70 –105 billion. required outlay to US $ 70 –105 billion.

Israel's GNP is around US$ 100 billion . Thus if it Israel's GNP is around US$ 100 billion . Thus if it was prepared to devote annually 3-5% of its GNP to was prepared to devote annually 3-5% of its GNP to the resolution of the Palestinian problem in the the resolution of the Palestinian problem in the humanitarian context – i.e. an annual sum of US$ 3-humanitarian context – i.e. an annual sum of US$ 3-5 billion - the entire project could conceivably be 5 billion - the entire project could conceivably be implemented within a decade and a half. implemented within a decade and a half.

The cost of war in

Iraq war has reached

The cost of war in

Iraq war has reached

about US $ 300 billio

n and could by some

about US $ 300 billio

n and could by some

estimates eventually reach considerably

estimates eventually reach considerably

more than that figure.

more than that figure.

Unique Religion

Unique Language

Unique Script

Unique History

Unique Customs

Israel Palestinians

The Case for an Independent Nation StateThe Case for an Independent Nation State

Palestinian Statehood as a

Historical Anachronism

Two Competing Hypotheses

Re-Legitimize the Zionist Narrative

No credible capable

Palestinian leadership has

emerged Proven Palestinian

Political Incompetence Failure

despite very favorable conditions Palestinians

Failed test of history

Palestinian Behavior and

Decisions

Don’t DeserveStatehood

Rejected every

territorial proposal

Revealed Preferences:Declarations & Deeds

Don’t desire Statehood

De-legitimization of Palestinian

Narrative

Remove the Issue of

Palestinian Statehood from

Int’l AgendaThe Human

Predicament Persists

Abandon Political Paradigm;

Adopt Humanitarian one

Mutually Exclusive, Irreconcilable National

Claims

Superior Jewish Claims to

Self Determination

Concentrate on Dealing with the GenuineGenuine HumanitarianHumanitarian

PredicamentPredicament on Individual Basis - Rather than Fulfilling Spurious Political DemandsSpurious Political Demands

Redefine the Palestinian Problem

– and the Nature of its Solution

Cast in Humanitarian - Rather than Political - Terms

Territorial Compromise

FeasibilityFeasibility

Relocation and Rehabilitation

Individual Recipients

Host Countries

Economic Cost

Improve dramatically the lot of individual Palestinians

Defuse the Palestinian Defuse the Palestinian humanitarian predicamenthumanitarian predicament

Ensure the continued survival of Israel as the nation state of the Jewish people

Inject billions of dollars of funds Inject billions of dollars of funds in to the economies of low in to the economies of low income nationsincome nations

זו – אין תרצו אםאגדה

La Victoire, elle comme Dieu – si on y croit, elle existe

We Shall Overcome

Dr. Martin Sherman Singapore, Septembetr 2006

Asia III

Thank You for Your Attention Thank You for Your Attention