Don’t believe everything - AusCham Vietnam · PDF file1 CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | CANCHAM VIETNAM Don’t believe everything you read in the media ... Managing Director, CBRE Vietnam

1 CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | CANCHAM VIETNAM

Don’t believe everything you read in the media

about the Vietnam Property Market

Presented by: Mr. Marc Townsend,

Managing Director, CBRE Vietnam

19th January 2017

HO CHI MINH CITY


REAL ESTATE DASHBOARD

(*) Current lending rate is the average lending rate surveyed at ten banks, and only applicable for home loan. However, the back-dated numbers were the average rate

announced publicly at that point of time, applied for all sectors and all banks. The average lending rate is for reference only.

(**) Deposit rate is the average deposit rate from a sample comprised of ten banks, in which the rates are announced publicly on their websites and can be tracked backwards.

ECONOMIC

INDICATORS 2Y 1Y 6M 3M 1M Current

CPI (%) y-o-y 1.8 0.6 1.7 1.9 4.5 4.7

Trade balance

(US$, bil) (1.1) (0.6) (0.1) (0.1) (0.4) (0.3)

Retail & services

Turnover (VND, tril) 273.3 294.7 295.8 294.4 302.9 320.2

BANKING & FINANCE 2Y 1Y 6M 3M 1M Current

VN-Index 576.1 545.3 652.2 682.3 663.5 681.3

USD/VND (inter-bank) 21,458 21,881 21,862 22,156 22,156 22,161

Local gold (VND mil/tael) 35.4 32.8 36.8 35.8 36.1 36.7

Lending Rate (%)* 8.8% 7.6% 7.0% 7.3% 7.7% 8.4%

Deposit rate (%)**

(1-year term) 6.4% 6.3% 6.7% 6.7% 6.5% 6.6%

REAL ESTATE INDEX 2Y 1Y 6M 3M 1M Current

Real Estate Holding &

Development Listed

Companies

48.60 45.22 51.00 47.24 45.63 46.55

Real Estate Services

Listed Companies 52.8 41.3 28.3 30.89 26.98 27.06

Source: Stockbiz, Jan 2017

Source: GSO, Dec, 2016

Source: GSO, SBV, SJC & HSX, Jan, 2017

NEW LAUNCHES 2Y 1Y 6M 3M 1M Current

HCMC New launches

(unit) 70,902 37,278 21,088 11,926 6,272 3,957

HN New launches (unit) 45,921 25,485 17,460 10,409 5,712 2,712

Source: CBRE, Dec 2016


BCI NUMBERS

All Future

Projects

(2017-2030)

HCMC Hanoi Da

Nang

Can

Tho

Nha

Trang

Vung

Tau

Hai

Phong

Office 253 247 53 33 20 36 47

Retail 164 132 66 5 22 11 11

Hospitality

and SA 60 31 76 4 56 17 6

Residential 404 188 42 13 13 22 10

Total 881 598 237 55 111 86 74

Projects

Under

Construction

HCMC Hanoi Da

Nang

Can

Tho

Nha

Trang

Vung

Tau

Hai

Phong

Office 142 161 27 20 13 16 29

Retail 100 81 47 2 14 6 8

Hospitality

and SA 35 16 55 4 35 10 3

Residential 286 105 22 8 23 13 8

Total 563 363 151 34 85 45 48

Source: www.bciasia.com; CBRE Vietnam, January 2017. Source: www.bciasia.com; CBRE Vietnam, January 2017.

Projects under construction, y-o-y change All future projects (2016 – 2030), y-o-y change

-100%

0%

100%

200%

300%

HCMC Hanoi DaNang

CanTho

KhanhHoa

VungTau

HaiPhong

Perc

en

tag

e c

han

ge

2017 YTD vs 2016 2016 vs 2015

-100%

0%

100%

200%

300%

HCMC Hanoi DaNang

CanTho

KhanhHoa

VungTau

HaiPhong

Perc

en

tag

e c

han

ge

2017 YTD vs 2016 2016 vs 2015

http://www.bciasia.com/

http://www.bciasia.com/


ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES Challenges from drought, flood and others

More than 200 tons of died fish

collected in Westlake, Hanoi


URBAN MIGRATION AND ITS NET EFFECT

159,501 Passenger Cars Sold in 2016

(up 36% y-o-y)

3,121,023 Motorbikes Sold in 2016

(up 9.5% y-o-y)

8,000 motorbikes/day


HCMC METRO LINES PLAN

Line Route Length

1 Ben Thanh – Suoi Tien 19.7 km

2 An Suong – Cat Lai 11.3 km

3 Tan Kien – Hiep Binh Phuoc 31.9km

4 Nguyen Van Linh – Thanh

Xuan

41.2 km

5 Saigon Bridge – Can Giuoc

Coach Station

23.4 km

6 Ba Queo – Phu Lam

Intersection

6.4 km

SUOI TIEN

NGUYEN VAN LINH

AN SUONG

CAT LAI

PHU LAM

TAN KIEN

HIEP BINH PHUOC

BA QUEO

6

CAN GIUOC

5

SAI GON BRIDGE

THANH XUAN

1

2

2

4

3

3

BEN THANH HUB

Under Construction Metro Lines

Under Planning Metro

Lines

2 km Scale:

Metro Line no. 1 is under construction to

be completed by 2018.

Metro Line no. 2 is now pending

Other lines are still calling for

investments.

Current situation

Funding Process

The city also plans three monorail routes

totaling 37km by 2030.

Future Plan


MEANWHILE IN BANGKOK


Increasing tourist arrivals, new international flights open

HOSPITALITY MARKET

Lead the top guest

arrivals (2.7 mil arrivals in 2016)

Number of Tourist Arrivals in 2016 (millions)

Tourists to Ba Na Hill (Da Nang) in 2016

90% Local

4% South Korean

3% Chinese

3% Other countries

(2 million visits in total)

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

0

2

4

6

8

10

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

Gro

wth

Rate

(%

)

Arr

ivals

(M

illio

n p

ers

ons)

International arrival Growth rate


Oversupply concern

RESIDENTIAL MARKET

Hot launches near Thu Thiem

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

2015 2016Ne

w la

un

ch

su

pp

ly (

un

its)

Luxury High-end Mid-end Affordable

Foreign buyers at CBRE

147 deals closed from July 2015 up to December 2016

Some projects in Thao Dien already reached the 30%

threshold of foreign buyers

Main groups of foreign buyers in 2016:

Singapore: 18%

Japan/Hong Kong/Europe: 16% each

Source: CBRE Vietnam , Q4 2016

New launch supply (units)


PropTech, RETech, Co-working space

DISRUPTIVE TECH & ENTRENEURSHIP


THE MAIN NEW FOCUSES… ANYTHING BUT TPP

Forget TPP, The Focus is now on

RCEP


THE ONE BIG MANUFACTURER

Source: Vietnam Ministry of Planning and Investment.

US$ 36.4 billion

9.3% y-o-y

Top FDI Investors, US$ million, 2016

7,036

2,590

2,419

1,875

1,860

South Korea

Japan

Singapore

China

Taiwan


THAT ONE BIG DEVELOPER


2 completed, 4 under construction

HCMC 20 GOLDEN SITES

Source: CBRE Vietnam.

VINHOMES GOLDEN RIVER

UNION SQUARE

SAIGON MELINH TOWER

THE SPIRIT OF SAIGON

SJC

VINCOM CENTER DONG KHOI 3

16

7

2

1

9

20

5

17

4

6 13 8

18 19

12 14

15

11


Busy Construction Activity in District 1 and District 3

WALKABOUT IN HCMC

95 projects

found on 132 streets

in District 1 15 Cleared Sites

5 Public Projects

7 Hotels

6 Residential

2 Retail

33 Offices

45 projects

found on 24 streets

in District 3

18 Offices

2 SAs

2 Residential

8 Private Use

2 Hotels

10 Unknown

3 Others

Only 2 Grade A


FORTUNE GLOBAL 500 Fortune Companies in Vietnam

218 companies in 2015 230 companies in 2016

Source: CBRE Vietnam.

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Food

& D

rug

Sto

res

Tele

com

mun

ication

s

App

are

l

Tra

nspo

rtation

Chem

ical

Techn

olo

gy

Ene

rgy

Eng

inee

ring

& C

on

str

uctio

n

House

hold

pro

du

cts

Busin

ess S

erv

ice

Mo

tor

Ve

hic

les &

Pa

rts

Reta

iling

Wh

ole

sa

lers

Fin

ance

Health

Ca

re

Ind

ustr

ials

Food

, B

eve

rag

es &

To

ba

cco

Ho

tels

, R

esta

ura

nts

&…

Aeo

rosp

ace

s &

De

fen

se

Ma

teri

als

Me

dia

No. of com

panie

s

2015

2016


Weaker rental growth is expected

APAC OFFICE RENTAL

Tenant - Driven Landlord – Driven

Shanghai

Shenzhen

Brisbane

Guangzhou

Ho Chi Minh City

Mumbai

Beijing

Hong Kong

New Delhi

Auckland

Bangkok

Taipei

Tokyo

Melbourne

Sydney

Bangalore

Hanoi

Perth

Seoul

Singapore

Source: CBRE Research, January 2017.

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Sydney

Bangalo

re

Melb

ourn

e

Bangkok

Guangzhou

Gurg

aon

Auckla

nd

Tokyo

Brisbane

Mum

bai

Hanoi

Ho C

hi M

inh C

ity

Taip

ei

De

lhi

Seoul

Hong K

ong

Shanghai

Shenzhen

Pert

h

Beiji

ng

Jakart

a

Sin

gapore

Gra

de A

Eff

ecti

ve R

en

tal G

row

th

(%)

2016F 2017F

Bottoming

Out

Peaking

Source: CBRE Research, December 2016.


Yield spread (Office vs. 10-year Gov’ Bond) Continues at Low

levels

APAC CAPITAL MARKET

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

Pe

rth

Ha

no

i

Brisb

an

e

Tokyo

Au

ckla

nd

Ho

Chi M

inh C

ity

Ba

ng

kok

Melb

ourn

e

Se

ou

l

Syd

ne

y

Mu

mb

ai

Ku

ala

Lum

pur

Taip

ei

Be

ijin

g

Sh

an

gh

ai

Ne

w D

elh

i

Gu

an

gzh

ou

Ba

ng

alo

re

Sin

ga

po

re

Sh

en

zhe

n

Hong K

ong

Off

ice Y

ield

Sp

read

Yield spread narrowed

to

100 bps or below

Source: CBRE Research, December 2016.

Ten Year High

2017F

Ten Year Low


A YEAR OF M&A

Source: RCA.

International Centre Keppel Land Ltd.

►►VinaCapital

@ US$ 13.8 mil.

Office

Hanoi


Growing Hospitality Market

Issuance of 06/2016/NHNN Circular

The end of 30.000 billion VND package

Public announcement of mortgaged projects

Name projects that are unqualified for Fire Safety

Active M&A market

Trend of “green” in buildings development

The growth of affordable segment

Renovation of old apartments

The entrance of non-real estate players

TOP 10 REAL ESTATE STORIES

All materials presented in this report, unless specifically indicated otherwise, is under copyright and proprietary to CBRE. Information contained herein, including projections, has been obtained from materials and sources believed to be reliable at the date of publication. While we do not doubt its accuracy, we have not verified it and make no guarantee, warranty or representation about it. Readers are responsible for independently assessing the relevance, accuracy, completeness and currency of the information of this publication. This report is presented for information purposes only, exclusively for CBRE clients and professionals, and is not to be used or considered as an offer or the solicitation of an offer to sell or buy or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. All rights to the material are reserved and none of the material, nor its content, nor any copy of it, may be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed to any other party without prior express written permission of CBRE. Any unauthorised publication or redistribution of CBRE research reports is prohibited. CBRE will not be liable for any loss, damage, cost or expense incurred or arising by reason of any person using or relying on information in this publication.

For more information regarding this presentation please contact: CBRE Vietnam Co., Ltd. – Research & Consulting T +84 8 3824 6125

F +84 8 3823 8418

Email: [email protected]

Documents

Don’t believe everything - AusCham Vietnam · PDF file1 CBRE MARKET INSIGHTS | CANCHAM VIETNAM Don’t believe everything you read in the media ... Managing Director, CBRE Vietnam