Do Developed or Developing Do Developed or Developing Countries Emit More Carbon Countries Emit More Carbon

Dioxide Into the Atmosphere?Dioxide Into the Atmosphere?

A Data Management Culminating A Data Management Culminating Project Presentation Project Presentation

by Mathew Hall, Dr. G.W. Williams by Mathew Hall, Dr. G.W. Williams S.S. S.S.

Aurora, OntarioAurora, Ontario

Thesis StatementThesis Statement

As the indicating factors of a country’s As the indicating factors of a country’s development increase, that country development increase, that country will emit more carbon dioxide into the will emit more carbon dioxide into the atmosphere because of increased atmosphere because of increased motor vehicle transportation, energy motor vehicle transportation, energy consumption, and urbanization.consumption, and urbanization.

Background Background InformationInformation

Carbon Dioxide Emissions Carbon Dioxide Emissions (CO(CO22))• Carbon dioxide is an essential gas in the Earth’s AtmosphereCarbon dioxide is an essential gas in the Earth’s Atmosphere• It is classified as a “greenhouse gas”It is classified as a “greenhouse gas”• Greenhouse gasses trap the suns radiation in the atmosphere, maintaining the Greenhouse gasses trap the suns radiation in the atmosphere, maintaining the

temperature of the Earthtemperature of the Earth

• Carbon dioxide is second to water vapor as the leading greenhouse gas in the Carbon dioxide is second to water vapor as the leading greenhouse gas in the

atmosphere (Greenhouse Gas 2005)atmosphere (Greenhouse Gas 2005) • Carbon dioxide levels have risen by 31% since 1895 (The Greenhouse Gasses 2004) Carbon dioxide levels have risen by 31% since 1895 (The Greenhouse Gasses 2004) • One tonne of carbon burned One tonne of carbon burned 3.7 tonnes of CO 3.7 tonnes of CO2 2 (The Greenhouse Gasses 2004) (The Greenhouse Gasses 2004)

• 22 billion tonnes of fossil fuels are burned each year (The Greenhouse Gasses 22 billion tonnes of fossil fuels are burned each year (The Greenhouse Gasses

2004)2004)

Climate Change• 20th Century has had the warmest global temperature in 1000 years (The Greenhouse Gasses)

• Increased temperatures cause: polar ice caps melting, increased sea level, animal habitats being destroyed, erosion of island shores, drought, and more common heat waves (Understanding Climate Change 2004)

• General scientific consensus is that increased levels of CO2 are the cause of the Increase in global temperatures (Understanding Climate Change 2004)

• Carbon dioxide has not been proven to be the cause, this is only an accepted theory (Understanding Climate Change 2004)

Developed vs. Developing Developed vs. Developing CountriesCountries

• No real scale to judge developmentNo real scale to judge development• World Bank states that a country with GDP per World Bank states that a country with GDP per

capita of under $6000 US is developing capita of under $6000 US is developing (development- categorizing countries 2005)(development- categorizing countries 2005)

• United Nations uses different indicators such as: United Nations uses different indicators such as: life expectancy, literacy rate, enrolment in schools, life expectancy, literacy rate, enrolment in schools, urban population levels and GDP per capita urban population levels and GDP per capita (development- categorizing countries 2005)(development- categorizing countries 2005)

• In General:In General:Developed Countries Developed Countries - higher GDP - higher GDP

- more urban - more urban populationpopulation

AnalysisAnalysis

Causes of COCauses of CO22 Emissions Emissions

• Fuel Fuel combustion combustion accounts for accounts for the greatest the greatest proportion of proportion of COCO22 emissions emissions

• There is an There is an extremely extremely strong linear strong linear correlation correlation between total between total fuel emissions fuel emissions and COand CO22 emissionsemissions

Sources of CO2 emissions

Fuel Combustion

Fugitive Emissionsfrom Fuels Industrial Processes

Solvent and OtherProduct Use Agriculture

Land-Use Change &Forestry Waste

0

1000000

2000000

3000000

4000000

5000000

6000000

co2

em

iss

ion

s

0 1000000 2000000 3000000 4000000 5000000 6000000totalfuelemissions

co2emissions = 1.01totalfuelemissions + 3300; r^2 = 1.00

Fuel combustion and co2 emission data 2000 Scatter Plot

96%

Sources of Carbon Dioxide Emissions

Percentage of Total Fuel Combustion CO2 Emissions by Sector

39%

19%

27%

14%1%

Energy Industries

Manufacturing Industriesand Construction

Transport

Other Sectors

Other

• The two greatest contributors to fuel combustion CO2 emissions are transportation and energy industries

TransportationTransportation

Gasoline Consumption vs. CO2 Emissions

y = 13.12x + 76278

R2 = 0.7744

0

1000000

2000000

3000000

4000000

5000000

6000000

7000000

0 100000 200000 300000 400000 500000

Gasoline Consumption (millions of liters)

CO

2 E

mis

sio

ns

(th

ou

sa

nd

s o

f m

etr

ic t

on

ne

s)

• Fairly strong correlation between gasoline consumption and Fairly strong correlation between gasoline consumption and COCO22 emissions emissions

• Inference: Countries that consume more gasoline will emit Inference: Countries that consume more gasoline will emit more COmore CO22

20

40

60

80

100

Co

un

t

100000 200000 300000 400000 500000millionsoflitersgasconsumption

millionsoflitersgasconsumption mean = 14698.5millionsoflitersgasconsumption median = 2067.4

Motor Gasoline Consumption-Developed Countries Histogram

10

20

30

40

50

60

Co

un

t

5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000millionsoflitersgasconsumption

millionsoflitersgasconsumption mean = 3142.57millionsoflitersgasconsumption median = 585.75

Motor Gasoline Consumption- Developing Countries Histogram

• Developed countries consume more gasoline, on Developed countries consume more gasoline, on average, than developing countriesaverage, than developing countries

• Developed countries consume 2.5 times more Developed countries consume 2.5 times more gasolinegasoline

• Thesis is supportedThesis is supported

Units : Millions of Liters of Gas

Energy IndustriesEnergy IndustriesTotal CO2 Emissions vs. Total Energy Consumption

y = 2562.1x - 23378

R2 = 0.9883

0

1000000

2000000

3000000

4000000

5000000

6000000

7000000

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500

Total Energy Consum ption (tonnes of oil equivalent)

To

tal C

O2

Em

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on

s (t

ho

usa

nd

s o

f M

etri

c T

on

nes

)

• Very strong positive correlation between COVery strong positive correlation between CO22 emissions and emissions and total energy consumptiontotal energy consumption

• 99% of the variation in CO99% of the variation in CO22 emissions result from variations emissions result from variations in energy consumptionin energy consumption

• Inference: Countries that consume more energy will emit Inference: Countries that consume more energy will emit more COmore CO22

Energy ConsumptionEnergy Consumption

• Developed countries consume twice as much Developed countries consume twice as much energy as developing countries on averageenergy as developing countries on average

• Developed countries are relatively inconsistent in Developed countries are relatively inconsistent in total energy consumptiontotal energy consumption

• Thesis is supportedThesis is supported

Co

un

t

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

energyconsumption200000 400000 600000 800000

energyconsumption mean = 69867.9energyconsumption median = 24471.5

Developed no outliers Histogram

Co

un

t

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

energyconsumption0 40000 80000 120000 160000 200000

energyconsumption mean = 27951.2energyconsumption median = 10253

Developing no outliers HistogramUnits: Thousand metric tonnes of oil equivalent

σ :Developed Countries – 123896 Developing Countries - 41783

AnalysisAnalysis

Urbanization and COUrbanization and CO22 EmissionsEmissions

Total Urban Population vs. Gasoline Consumption

y = 0.9038x + 2533.8

R2 = 0.5722

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000

Total Urban Population (thousands of people)

Gas

oli

ne

Co

nsu

mp

tio

n (

mil

lio

ns

of

lite

rs)

Total Energy Consumption vs. Total Urban Population

y = 0.0185x - 121.46

R2 = 0.8741

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 140000

Total Urban Population (thousands)

To

tal E

ner

gy

Co

nsu

mp

tio

n

(to

nn

es o

f o

il eq

uiv

alen

t)• Urban population has Urban population has

a weak positive a weak positive correlation with correlation with gasoline consumptiongasoline consumption

• Inference: Countries Inference: Countries with more urban with more urban populations don’t populations don’t necessarily consume necessarily consume more gasolinemore gasoline

• Urban population has Urban population has a strong correlation a strong correlation with energy with energy consumptionconsumption

• Inference: Countries Inference: Countries with more urban with more urban population will population will consume more consume more energyenergy

Total Carbon Dioxide Emissions vs. Total Urban Population

y = 8.7483x + 302754

R2 = 0.3415

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

1400000

1600000

1800000

0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 140000

Total Urban Population (thousands of people)

To

tal C

arb

on

Dio

xid

e

Em

iss

ion

s (

tho

us

an

d m

etr

ic

ton

ne

s)

• Urban population has a very weak correlation with COUrban population has a very weak correlation with CO22 emissions emissions• Inference: Having more of an urban population will not result in Inference: Having more of an urban population will not result in

more COmore CO22 emissions emissions

Energy Consumption Carbon Dioxide Emissions

Urban Population

R2=0.87

R2=0.99

R2=0.34

Strong

Strong

WEAK

Co

un

t

10

20

30

40

50

urbanpopulation0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 300000

urbanpopulation mean = 15484.3urbanpopulation median = 4123

Developed country's urban population Histogram

Co

un

t

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

urbanpopulation0 100000 200000 300000 400000

urbanpopulation mean = 12089urbanpopulation median = 1687.5

Developing Country's urban population Histogram

IQR: Developed Countries – 8387 Developing Countries - 5816

• Developed Countries have greater urban Developed Countries have greater urban population values than developing onespopulation values than developing ones

• Developing countries have more consistency in Developing countries have more consistency in urban population valuesurban population values

• Thesis is not supported as urban population has Thesis is not supported as urban population has little impact on COlittle impact on CO22 emissions emissions

AnalysisAnalysis

Overall Carbon Dioxide Overall Carbon Dioxide EmissionsEmissions

Total COTotal CO22 Emissions Emissions

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

Co

un

t

1000000 2000000 3000000 4000000 5000000 6000000CO2emissions

CO2emissions mean = 129128CO2emissions median = 8862

World CO2 emissions Histogram

10

20

30

40

50

Co

un

t

1000000 2000000 3000000 4000000 5000000 6000000co2emissions

co2emissions mean = 276973co2emissions median = 51321

developed countries Histogram

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Cou

nt

1000000 2000000 3000000co2emissions

co2emissions mean = 70297.2co2emissions median = 3649

developing countries Histogram

• Developed countries’ CO2 emissions are higher than the world median, developing countries’ emissions are lower than the median

• Developing countries are more consistent in CO2 emission values

•Thesis is supported

IQR - 159925

IQR - 29278

Units: thousand metric tonnes

2

4

6

8

10

12

Co

un

t

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22CO2percapita

co2percapita median = 7.48co2percapita mean = 7.52774

Developed co2 per capita Histogram

20

40

60

80

100

120

Co

un

t

10 20 30 40 50 60co2percapita

co2percapita mean = 3.16147co2percapita median = 1.03

developing co2per capita Histogram

• Developed Countries emit more CODeveloped Countries emit more CO22 per capita on per capita on average; approximately 700% more per personaverage; approximately 700% more per person

• Developed countries are more inconsistent in CODeveloped countries are more inconsistent in CO22 per capita, and it’s distribution is more “balanced”per capita, and it’s distribution is more “balanced”

• Thesis is ultimately supportedThesis is ultimately supported

IQR: Developed Countries – 5.26 Developing Countries – 2.69

Units: Metric tonnes of CO2 per person

Developed vs. Developing Countries’ Developed vs. Developing Countries’ COCO22 Emissions From 1950 to 2000 Emissions From 1950 to 2000

Developed vs. Developing Countries Total CO2 Emissions

5377722 6554339 76617069584937

12017244 13247248 14620761 14484808 14985819 14129761 14679545410954

7011021488946

1477403

22594192898051

4005973 48840526283263 8079069

9268499

0

5000000

10000000

15000000

20000000

25000000

30000000

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Year

To

tal C

O2

Em

iss

ion

s (

tho

us

an

ds

of

me

tric

to

nn

es

)

developed countries developing countries

• Developed countries have had a greater proportion Developed countries have had a greater proportion of total COof total CO22 emissions since 1950 emissions since 1950

• The proportion of developed countries’ COThe proportion of developed countries’ CO22 emissions has been decreasing over time since 1950emissions has been decreasing over time since 1950

• Thesis is tentatively supportedThesis is tentatively supported

AnalysisAnalysis

GDP and COGDP and CO22 Emissions Emissions

Mexican CO2 Emissions vs. GDP in Millions of US Dollars

y = 0.681x - 20755

R2 = 0.9823

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

400000

0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000

GDP (m illions of US dollars)

CO

2 E

mis

sio

ns

(th

ou

san

ds

of

met

ric

ton

nes

)

Peru Carbon Dioxide Emissions vs. GDP

y = 0.4304x - 448.97

R2 = 0.9696

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000

GDP (millions of US dollars)C

arb

on

Dio

xid

e E

mis

sio

ns

(th

ou

san

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etri

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nn

es)

Mexican Total GDP and Total CO2 Emissions From 1950 to 1992

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

Year

Val

ue

GDP (millions of US dollars) CO2 Emissions (thousands of metric tonnes)

Peru Carbon Dioxide Emissions and GDP from 1950 to1992

010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,000

Year

Va

lue

GDP (millions of US dollars)

Carbon Dioxide Emissions (thousand metric tonnes)

• GDP is increasing over time, CO2 emissions mirror that increase

•Very strong correlations between GDP and CO2 emissions

•Inference: In developing countries, increases in GDP will parallel increases in CO2 emissions

•Thesis is supported

Examples of Developing CountriesExamples of Developing Countries

Examples of Developed CountriesExamples of Developed Countries

France CO2 Emissions vs. GDP

y = 0.3188x + 215434

R2 = 0.5227

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000

GDP (millions of US dollars)C

O2

Em

iss

ion

s (

tho

us

an

ds

of

me

tric

ton

ne

s)

France GDP and CO2 Emissions from 1950-1992

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

19

50

19

53

19

56

19

59

19

62

19

65

19

68

19

71

19

74

19

77

19

80

19

83

19

86

19

89

19

92

Year

Va

lue

GDP (in millions of US dollars)

CO2 Emissions (thousands metric tonnes)

•GDP is increasing over time, CO2 emissions do not mirror that increase

•Much weaker correlations between GDP and CO2 emissions

•Inference: In developed countries, increases in GDP do not parallel increases in CO2 emissions

•Thesis is not supported

Germany CO2 Emissions and GDP from 1971 to 2000

0

500000

1000000

1500000

2000000

2500000

3000000

Year

Va

lue

GDP (millions of US dollars)

CO2 Emissions (thousands of metric tonnes)

Germany CO2 Emissions vs. GDP

R2 = 0.7183

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

0 500000 1000000

1500000

2000000

2500000

3000000

GDP (m illions of US dollars)

CO

2 E

mis

sio

ns

(th

ou

sa

nd

s o

f

me

tric

to

nn

es

)

What Are Some Possible Answers What Are Some Possible Answers for the Trends in Developed for the Trends in Developed Countries’ COCountries’ CO22 Emissions? Emissions?

• Increased use of “clean” fuels in Increased use of “clean” fuels in developed countriesdeveloped countries

• France is a world leader in the use of France is a world leader in the use of nuclear power, use less and less fossil nuclear power, use less and less fossil fuels each year (Earthtrends 2005)fuels each year (Earthtrends 2005)

• Germany demolished soviet power plants Germany demolished soviet power plants which produced enormous amounts of COwhich produced enormous amounts of CO22 ((O’Ronian 2005)O’Ronian 2005)

• Kyoto protocol signed in 1997 Kyoto protocol signed in 1997 (Kyoto (Kyoto Protocol 2005)Protocol 2005)

ConclusionsConclusions• Gasoline consumption and energy consumption have strong Gasoline consumption and energy consumption have strong

correlations with COcorrelations with CO22 emissions emissions• Developed countries consume more gasoline and energy than Developed countries consume more gasoline and energy than

developing countries, on averagedeveloping countries, on average• Although urban population levels have a strong correlation with Although urban population levels have a strong correlation with

energy industries, it has a weak correlation with COenergy industries, it has a weak correlation with CO22 emissions emissions• The fact that developed countries have greater urban population The fact that developed countries have greater urban population

levels does not have any effect on COlevels does not have any effect on CO22 emission levels emission levels• Developed countries emit more total CODeveloped countries emit more total CO22 and CO and CO22 per capita per capita

than developing countriesthan developing countries• The proportion of COThe proportion of CO22 emissions developed countries are emissions developed countries are

accounting for is decreasing over timeaccounting for is decreasing over time• Developing countries have strong correlations between GDP and Developing countries have strong correlations between GDP and

COCO22 emissions emissions• Developed countries have weak correlations between GDP and Developed countries have weak correlations between GDP and

COCO22 emissions emissions • In many developed countries GDP increases while COIn many developed countries GDP increases while CO22 emissions emissions

stay the same or decline, developing countries have increases in stay the same or decline, developing countries have increases in both variablesboth variables

Final ThoughtsFinal Thoughts

• Developed countries are the focus for Developed countries are the focus for reducing COreducing CO22 emissions emissions

• Presently, this is an effective course Presently, this is an effective course of action- developed countries emit of action- developed countries emit more total COmore total CO22

• In the future more attention must be In the future more attention must be paid to developing countries, as they paid to developing countries, as they may come to surpass developed may come to surpass developed countries if trends continuecountries if trends continue

Works CitedWorks Cited• development-categorising countriesdevelopment-categorising countries. 14 Dec. 2005 . 14 Dec. 2005

<http://www.tutor2u.net/economics/content/topics/development/dev<http://www.tutor2u.net/economics/content/topics/development/development_categorising_countries.htm>.elopment_categorising_countries.htm>.

• Earthtrends Energy and Resources- FranceEarthtrends Energy and Resources- France. 22 December 2005. . 22 December 2005. <http://earthtrends.wri.org/pdf_library/country_profiles/ene_cou_250.<http://earthtrends.wri.org/pdf_library/country_profiles/ene_cou_250.pdf>pdf>

• Greenhouse Gas.Greenhouse Gas. 7 December 2005. Wikipedia: The Free 7 December 2005. Wikipedia: The Free Encyclopedia. 14 Dec. 2005 Encyclopedia. 14 Dec. 2005 <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenhouse_gas>.<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenhouse_gas>.

• O'Ronain, Miceal. O'Ronain, Miceal. The German Kyoto Protocol HoaxThe German Kyoto Protocol Hoax. 17 December . 17 December 2005. 20 Dec. 2005 2005. 20 Dec. 2005 <http://www.numberwatch.co.uk/german_kyoto_protocol_hoax.htm><http://www.numberwatch.co.uk/german_kyoto_protocol_hoax.htm>..

• The Greenhouse Gasses.The Greenhouse Gasses. 23 August 2004. Government of Canada. 14 23 August 2004. Government of Canada. 14 Dec. 2005 Dec. 2005 <http://www.climatechange.gc.ca/english/climate_change/greenhous<http://www.climatechange.gc.ca/english/climate_change/greenhouse.asp>.e.asp>.

• Understanding Climate Change.Understanding Climate Change. 23 August 2004. Government of 23 August 2004. Government of Canada. 14 Dec. 2005 Canada. 14 Dec. 2005 <http://www.climatechange.gc.ca/english/climate_change/understan<http://www.climatechange.gc.ca/english/climate_change/understanding.asp>.ding.asp>.

• Kyoto ProtocolKyoto Protocol. 21 December 2005. Wikipedia: The Free . 21 December 2005. Wikipedia: The Free Encyclopedia. <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kyoto_Protocol>Encyclopedia. <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kyoto_Protocol>

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